Blog Archives: October 2006

October Stats and a Look Ahead...

Posted October 31st, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 3 comments

We'll get to the image at the very end. Well October is just about in the books, so let's see how we fared this month. Temperature Our average temperature this month was 47.3 degrees. Normally, our average temperature for the month of October is 48.9 degrees. That's 1.6 degrees below normal. Our... Continue reading…

Silence is Golden

Posted October 30th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 6 comments

Well, it's nice to have a break here in the Weather Center. What a busy weekend, but we keep getting emails and photos, so it makes things much easier. Thanks for all your contributions through this. I think our forecast was very well done too. We began hinting at things last... Continue reading…

What a storm Part 2!

Posted October 29th, 2006 by Bill Kardas. 6 comments

Continuing the story on this big storm... Continue reading…

What a Storm!

Posted October 29th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 4 comments

Lake effect is underway, but if you look at radar you can see how this isn't "normal" lake effect. The winds are so strong, that they're grabbing the lake's moisture, forcing it up over the land and dumping it in the form of valley rain showers and higher elevation... Continue reading…

One Last Update for Tonight

Posted October 27th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 14 comments

...and then it's all in the hands of the weather! Pictured is my snowfall forecast for the weekend. We'll see how it goes. Check out the water vapor loop. This tool is used to see how much moisture is in the atmosphere and how it's moving. You can look... Continue reading…

Pushing up the start time of the rain.

Posted October 27th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 5 comments

I'm digesting some computer model data and radar data. Start time of the rain was scheduled for around midnight. Obviously it will be here sooner than that, as it's already raining lightly in Syracuse. This has little-no impact on things. Trying to nail down the timing of various aspects has... Continue reading…

Storm Update

Posted October 27th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 7 comments

In the image, our developing storm, over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. (Taken from the College of DuPage ) Right now it has a central pressure of about 998 mb and will continue to deepen on its way up here into the low 970s or high 960s...amazing for any... Continue reading…
We're continuing to see support from our computer models on a possible major event this weekend, with high impacts in various ways for all of Central New York. First off, the image, is the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (The Natl. Weather Service's precipitation experts) forecast for snowfall from Saturday night through... Continue reading…

Finally Some Sun, but an Interesting Weekend....

Posted October 25th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 7 comments

We finally saw the sun today! And I think we'll be seeing more of it in the coming days as the overall weather pattern starts changing again. Once our break ends on Friday though, we'll be setting the stage for more interesting and active weather. Here's what's up. Last night... Continue reading…

More Novemberish Weather...

Posted October 24th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 6 comments

Looks like we'll continue to see this nasty weather continue, at least for another couple of days. We've got persistent northwesterly winds bringing us clouds and showers from the north. This isn't pure lake effect...in fact, I'm not even sure the lake really has anything to do with our current... Continue reading…

A Little Lake Effect Tonight + Longer Range Stuff

Posted October 23rd, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 4 comments

What you see in the image is tonight's forecast for lake effect, based off the same model Bill posted about in last night's entry. What to take from this? It's backed off considerably on the amount of precip in our area, but kept the same "zone" in play. What falls... Continue reading…

Getting back to lake effect...

Posted October 22nd, 2006 by Bill Kardas. 5 comments

The ins & outs of what I'm thinking about tomorrow night's potential snow event. Continue reading…
Going over Friday's forecast, and how important it is to pay attention to what is going on outside the window and not in front of the computer... Continue reading…

Recap/Look Ahead to Next Week

Posted October 20th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 4 comments

Well, it's not often we get fooled by surprise snow, but this would count as one of those instances. I know I mentioned yesterday that some snow was possible when the rain ended in the North Country. However I believe I dismissed accumulations. Woops. What happened? I think I know.... Continue reading…

Snowing Up North!

Posted October 20th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 11 comments

As we said on wktv.com and as you've seen from comments, it is snowing in the North Country. The image is from McCauley Mountain in Old Forge. You can access real-time images, by clicking here. We've also gotten reports of snow in West Leyden and Turin. Email photos or reports to weather@wktv.com... Continue reading…

Winter Weather Outlook + Rain!

Posted October 19th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 9 comments

In case you have not heard, we are calling for a slightly cooler and slightly snowier than normal winter this year. Some of our rationale for this can be found on the wktv.com homepage, or just by clicking here. On to the rain. Flood Watches have been posted. What you... Continue reading…

More Rain for Tomorrow/Friday and Rain/Snow Next Week

Posted October 18th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 6 comments

This image shows the National Weather Service's Flash Flood Guidance currently. The dark green you see in southern Herkimer and Oneida Counties is how much rain it would take in 12 hours to cause flash flooding. We'd need 2" in 12 hours in these areas and higher amounts in other... Continue reading…

Interesting Buffalo Stats + More on Next Storms

Posted October 17th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 2 comments

I did some research this past weekend on the Buffalo event and found some interesting numbers. I looked over the last 60 years of data at Buffalo and found the years that included much above normal snowfall for the period of October and November combined. In other words, Buffalo averages... Continue reading…

So What's Next?

Posted October 16th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 6 comments

First off, if you want to see some neat aerial shots of the problems on the Thruway near Buffalo from before the weekend, check them out here. What you see in the image is a snapshot of the National Radar (Click here ) as of 8:15 tonight. One of... Continue reading…

A recap of this lake effect event

Posted October 15th, 2006 by Bill Kardas. 3 comments

We didn't see as much snow as I thought we would last night because the lake effect was primarily rain and not snow. I wanted to share some of my thoughts and logic with this forecast from last night, what happened, and what can be learned from what happened. Continue reading…

Buffalo Lake Effect Wrap

Posted October 13th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 9 comments

The image you see is a visible satellite shot from earlier today. What you see on there near Buffalo is not cloud cover, but rather snow cover. Pretty amazing sight for October. From a meteorolgist's perspective... I've only been in Upstate NY for 2 full winters, but last night has to... Continue reading…

Lake Effect for Buffalo, Not for Us...Yet

Posted October 12th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 11 comments

Lake effect snow continues to just hammer Buffalo. The band off Lake Erie is as well organized as you will ever see lake effect, except maybe when you have a band extending the length of Lake Ontario. You can view Buffalo's radar, by clicking here. For the latest on the... Continue reading…

Historic (?) Lake Effect Snow Underway in Buffalo

Posted October 12th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 3 comments

Buffalo has been reporting heavy snow and a thunderstorm for a couple of hours now and are on the cusp of what could be an unprecedented lake effect event. Here's some links. National Weather Service- Buffalo WGRZ, the NBC affiliate in Buffalo They have some links and photos... Continue reading…

Windy Night!

Posted October 11th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 4 comments

Winds have picked up here on Smith Hill in the last couple hours, with gusts now frequently hitting 30 mph. I'm glad this is as bad as it's been. Believe it or not, one thing we kind of kept quiet about was just how intense this storm appeared on computer... Continue reading…

Things Coming into Focus for Late Week...

Posted October 10th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 2 comments

Well I'm glad things have begun to come into focus here. Last night the debate was whether or not it would be an all at once event or one that strikes in pieces. A blend is the answer to that question. Wednesday: The big story here will be the wind.... Continue reading…

Late Week Storm Update

Posted October 9th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 5 comments

Well we've tried to mention some of the possibilities for this coming week. The good news for most of us is that things have backed down considerably from Friday and the weekend. You can see the satellite image from Environment Canada and the mess of clouds over the Rockies, indicating... Continue reading…

The latest on this potentially big storm

Posted October 8th, 2006 by Bill Kardas. 3 comments

You've all heard by now, snow is possible in this forecast. I wanted to go much more in depth and give you an idea on where I stand on the forecast, and more importantly, what I'm confident/not confident in. Continue reading…

More on Next Week...

Posted October 6th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 10 comments

With the weekend forecast pretty well in hand here, let's focus on next week. Remember a couple of entries ago (Click here to refresh your memory. ) I kind of keyed in our computer models trying to develop a large storm system over much of the eastern part of... Continue reading…

The Last Weekend to Get Outdoors this Year?

Posted October 5th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 3 comments

Who knows, but it might be. With sunshine likely and temperatures slowly warming all weekend, this one might be your best opportunity to get outdoors for awhile. Even if you're stretching it to Monday for Columbus Day it looks almost entirely dry! You can see the New York State Fall... Continue reading…

Autumn Returns

Posted October 4th, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 3 comments

I'll get to the image at the end of this entry. Well, the wind and the rain moved through tonight...not exactly as planned, but it happened. We managed to avoid severe weather today, and here's why. Two things happened. First, we had a thick, thick fog last night. This usually happens... Continue reading…

A Wild Wednesday? Then Frost Likely

Posted October 3rd, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 0 comments

Things are shaping up to be a bit active here in CNY on Wednesday. You can see perhaps a preview of tomorrow's weather in the image. We've been talking about a cold front coming through here at some point around the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. Well the timing of... Continue reading…

September in the Books

Posted October 2nd, 2006 by Matt Lanza. 1 comments

Well, the month of September is officially in the books. Here's the damage: Temperature Average Temperature 9/2006: 58.9 degrees Normal September Temperature: 60.3 degrees Difference: -1.4 degrees Interestingly enough to note, this was the first September to finish below normal in the temperature department since 1997! Also of note, this is the first... Continue reading…

Research on winter trends

Posted October 1st, 2006 by Bill Kardas. 4 comments

As many of you have read, Matt has been hacking and slashing the El Nino wild card and how this potential player could impact our winter. I've been doing some work of my own this weekend, playing around with numbers and I found a few interesting results. Let me explain: Continue reading…

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