The weather for March has been unbelievably mild and unusually sunny.  This change has been even more dramatic thanks to our cool, cloudy, wet February.  So far this month, every day has been above freezing, with an average temperature about 5 degrees above normal.  Sunshine as also been above average, with 8 days of partly to mostly sunny skies.  We only had three of these days for all of February.

High pressure parked over the northeast has been responsible for the sunshine and dry weather this month.  More importantly, the higher angle of the sun combined with the warming temeperatures are key to keeping us sunny.  If this same weather pattern was here in December, lake clouds would have likely limited our chances for sunshine. 

Moving forward, there's little hope for winter lovers here over the next seven days.  The next weather maker will bring rain to the area this weekend.  Most of Saturday looks to stay dry but cloudy.  It's possible that a few renegade sprinkles could show up at any point on Saturday, but the steady rain won't arrive until Saturday night.

The winds will pick up quite a bit over the next few days as well.  The east wind will start out today between 6-12mph this morning, increasing to 10-20mph tonight.  By tomorrow, that would could be sustained as high as 25mph with gusts over 35mph possible.

Any flooding concerns will stay south, as the lions share of the precipitation will fall in southern PA/NJ/NYC.  We don't expect more than 0.5" of rain at most with this upcoming event.

The weather patterns will switch back to dry, sunny, but still mild.  Despite the northwesterly breeze next week, temperatures will likely stay in the 50s!  The lack of cold air in Canada is having a significant impact on our weather.

Canada has been warm most of the winter.  According to Environment Canada, the average temperature nationally was 4°C above normal (very significant!).  In fact, this is the warmest winter on record for Canada looking on a national scale (records go back to 1948).  Combine this with below normal precipitation, and there's not anywhere near as much snow cover on the ground than should be for this time of year.  Canada's cold weather is needed in order to maintain winter here in Central New York in March.  With the lack of significant cold, the rest of March will likely stay mild and finish well above normal here in Central New York.  Our El Nino records suggested this was a strong possibility.  Every El Nino year saw below normal snowfall in March, and there's a very good chance this will happen again this year (see our winter outlook for the complete discussion).

While Canada was the warmest on record, here in the US it was a very different story.  The majority of the US was cold this winter.  About 63% of the country experienced below normal temperatures (NOAA).  You can read more about this article here.

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The picture I posted is somewhat startling yet interesting. No, it is not blood streaming down from the glacier. It is actually is primordial ooze that dates back to 2 million years ago. From the article:

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The weather patterns over the next several days look pretty quiet.  High pressure building in to Central New York will bring us plenty of sunshine today, Saturday and Sunday.  Overnight lows tonight fall down into the teens, but highs on Saturday and Sunday will make a run at 40 degrees or better.

I encourage you to come out and participate or cheer for the runners and walkers in this year's Heart Run and Walk.  It should be a great day to get out and excercise.  The weather will be chilly in the morning, but the sunshine will make it feel warmer.  If you are walking or running, dress in layers.  WIth temperatures quickly warming up, you may find that the early gear is too much.  Also, sunglasses and sunscreen may not be a bad idea...the sun is strong this time of year.

The only thing on our plates over the next seven days is a cold front that will drop on from the north on Monday.  It will bring us clouds, snow, and rain showers along with slightly cooler temepratures.  The core of the cool air looks to impact New England and spare the brunt of Central New York.  Still, temperatures will cool off a tad for early next week.

The big story this week, with the lack of weather, is the melting snow.  The snowpack has diminished considerably over the past week.   Check out the contrast between the February 28th and March 5th snowpack across Central New York.  About 75% of our snowpack here in the Mohawk Valley has melted within a week.  Even the higher elevations took a big hit, with many spots losing around a foot of snow. 

The snowmelt is a combination of both temperatures consistently above freezing this week along with the March sunshine.  More snowmelt will occur over the weekend.  With little snow in the forecast over the next seven days, the valley locations will likely begin to grass up.

Thankfully, this snow melt is occuring slowly, and with dry weather there ought not to be flooding.  March is known for flooding, and it looks like this is not going to be an issue for now.
 

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The golden snowball award is an award given to the city with the most seasonal snowfall in Upstate New York.  The award was created back in the 1970s between rival weather service offices in Upstate NY.  When the weather service closed its offices in Rochester and Syracuse in the mid 90s, the contest temporarily ended.  In the early 2000s, the contest was brought back to life.

The cities that participate are current or former cities that held NWS offices:  Rochester, Binghamton, Syracuse, Albany, and Buffalo.  Utica is not on this list, mainly because we never had a weather service office.  New York City is on the list, but rarely taken seriously.  If wo go back in the records to 1952, with all weather offices established, this would be a look at the total number of awards each city won:

SYRACUSE......... 39  
BUFFALO...............7 
ROCHESTER.........6 
BINGHAMTON.......3 
ALBANY.................0

Syracuse dominates this contest, thanks to it's location near Lake Ontario.  Buffalo and Rochester finish with a distant second and third.  It's rare for Binghamton to win, but they did in 3 years.  Albany doesn't get lake effect snow, and therefore hasn't won a single year.

Where do we fit into the mix?  Not as well as you may think.  Despite the multiple 100"+ years in the 90s, the most recent unoffical win for us would be the winter of 1993-1994.  We won with a total of 173.6" (Syracuse was a close second with 163.8").  Going beyond that, only 2 other years in the past 60 can we claim victory: the winters of 1970-71 (186.5") and 1971-1972 (151.3").  So as you can see, in order to win this contest in Utica it has to be a really really snowy year.  We would have a total of 3 wins if we were counted.

What about this year?  This year, Syracuse is leading the pack with 106.0".  Rochester is in second, with 86.9", followed by Binghamton with 80.1", Buffalo with 74.9", and Albany with 42.7".  Here in Utica, we are unofficially in 4th place, with 78.5".  Syracuse will likely win the contest again this year, but second and third place is still up for grabs.

For more on this award and the history behind it, check out this article:

http://goldensnowball.com/bill_kates_golden_snowball_article.htm

Here is a list of the winners in previous years:

http://goldensnowball.com/yearly-winners-golden-award.htm

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Happy March 1st!  While the majority of the country looks forward to spring this month, here in Central New York we have to wait another month.  Before we talk about what we can look forward to, let's take a look back at the month of February.

Temperature: 24.3° (+1.0)
Snow: 34.1" (+15.3)

February will go down in the books as a typical month of winter. Temperatures ranged from -1 on February 7th to 40 degrees on February 26th.  Temperatures overall were warmer than normal, mainly due to the very mild overnight low temperatures.  There wasn't much of a spread in temperatures across the month.  The quiet weather had a lot to do with the little change in temperature.  There was snow reported on all but two days.  Most of these snows were light...except for of course the big storm at the end of the month.  This one single handedly put us above normal for the month as well as back to normal for the season.

Onward to March. March is one of the most challenging yet intersting months in weather.  We've seen just about everything in March, from large snowstorms to thunderstorms.  The records for the month of March range from -20 (March 3rd 1950) to 86 (March 31, 1998). 

Sunshine in March becomes much more important to the weather forecast.  As the sun angle gets higher, days get longer, and the sun has a greater effect on the weather.  The sun tends to rip apart lake effect snow that forms during the day.  Any snows that do fall during the day have a hard time sticking to the pavement with temperatures near freezing.  Also, on a bright, sunny March afternoon the snow will melt on the pavement even with temperatures well below freezing.  These are just some examples of how the sun affects the weather.

Our weather over the course of the week will stay in winter mode.  Light snow showers are expected today as we hang around the fringe of an Atlantic storm.  This storm will toss plenty of moisture our way, and patchy drizzle, snow showers, and fog can be expected by Tuesday.  Another storm passes south on Wednesday, perhaps giving the Mid Atlantic another snowfall.

Dry weather expected by the end of the week, as an area of high pressure builds in from the west.  Sunshine and moderating temperatures will be the name of the game by the weekend.  Perhaps highs near 40 degrees by Saturday and Sunday.

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Our snowstorm produced 16.5" of snow for the city of Utica.  13.0" of that fell yesterday, making February 25th the snowiest day since the epic Valentine's Day Storm of 2007.  This also set a new daily snowfall record for the 25th.

 

The amount of liquid in the snow ranged from 1"-2" thanks to the Atlantic moisture feed for over 24 hours.  From a meteorological standpoint it was just a fascinating and challenging storm to track.  The Atlantic air mass was mild and made for a heavy wet snow.  With such a mild air mass to work with, a tiny bit of sunshine was all that was needed to send the mercury soaring to 40 degrees on Friday afternoon - and that was with a very deep snowpack.

 

This evening our storm system remains in the vicinity of New York City.  The storm has become cut off from the main jet stream flow - much like we typically see in a springtime weather pattern.  The storm has been slowly weakening and that trend will continue over the next few days.  As the storm weakens, snow showers and squalls will continue to stream across CNY.  The snows won't be as widespread or intense as what we saw Thursday and Thursday Night - but any squalls through Saturday could be locally heavy at least briefly and some roadways will likely become slippery again for a time.  The heaviest snowfall accumulations are likely to occur over the higher terrain, where a little extra lift will squeeze out a bit more moisture in the form of snow.  Snow will also more easily accumulate on hilltops because of the marginal temperatures.  Utica and Rome should see temperature readings climb above freezing over the next several afternoons with no really chilly air in sight.

 

This stagnant weather pattern is expected to last into early next week.  By around Wednesday a new storm system will try to move up the eastern seaboard.  Like so many storms this season this one at least initially appears to want to track well southeastward...potentially meaning more snow from PA, MD and NJ (maybe DC??).  But of course these individual waves have a way of changing their minds especially this far out.  We'll keep a close eye out for any changes.  In the meantime - snow enthusiasts - enjoy!  You've been waiting all winter for the big one and the heavy snowpack has finally arrived.

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An update for this evening on the storm...Heavy snowfall continues this evening all across CNY.  The storm system is centered near Long Island and the central pressure has dropped to 980 mb - quite intense.  Counterclockwise winds flowing around the center of the storm will continue to draw in moisture laden air from the Atlantic Ocean.  Already today, we've seen this Atlantic air mass make for just a heavy rainfall for portions of Eastern NY near Albany.  Earlier thinking was that this storm would jog westward into Eastern Pennsylvania, potentially allowing for more of a mixture of sleet and rain to intrude into CNY along with the heavy snow - but with the latest model progs keeping the vast majority of any mixed precipitation to the east for the majority of the event, it now appears that CNY will cash in on even higher snowfall amounts.

At this time we expect steady and heavy snowfall to continue through the evening.  As the storm system intensifies a bit more and tracks just a bit more to the west, our winds will continue to increase.  Look for sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph into early Friday.  As the heavy wet snow continues to pile up on tree limbs and power lines, the extra strain from the wind may cause some scattered power outages.  This is going to be closely monitored through the night.

By late tonight and early Friday there are indications that a dry slot will rotate into the region from the east, diminishing our precipitation by daybreak.  Bottom line is that several more inches of accumulation are expected through the night and travel is strongly discouraged.  Any informtion on road conditions and local weather reports is greatly appreciated.

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Central New York will see it's first major winter storm of the season today.  Snow will continue develop as we head through the morning and into the afternoon.  The heaviest snow is still expected to fall later today.  Several inches of snow will be on the ground for the evening commute.  We expect the worst weather and driving conditions to be between 3pm-7pm today.

The snow today will be similar to the snow that fell during the last storm.  It will be a wet and heavy.  The heavier snow will make it more difficult to shovel and drive. 

Total accumulations will range widely.  Elevation and location will be key to how much snow you can expect in your backyard.  The highest totals will fall south of Utica, especially on the hilltops (elevations over 1500 feet).  The snows here will be fluffier, and totals here should exceed one foot.  This area also has the least chance to mix with other precipitation types.  Most of the snow will fall on the front end of the storm. Mixed precipitation may become an issue as we head into tonight.

Sleet and even rain are still on the table.  Our eyes will be on what happens to the east of CNY, as the warm conveyor belt of air is expected to arrive in Eastern NY today.  This warm air will drive all the way into Central and Northern New York.  We could lose a lot on the tail end of the storm.  Still, even with this potential changeover, several inches of snow will fall regardless during the day today.

Winds will pick up and become sustained between 15-30mph tonight, with higher gusts on the hilltops.  This will create some blowing and drifting snow (with heavy snow, not as much as in other events), but also some other issues as well.  The wet snow combined with the wind adds to the potential for scattered power outages.  This is something we have to follow as the day progresses, and we'll keep you posted with the latest.

As with any storm, we'll continue to monitor the situation and keep you informed throughout the day.  Please post snowfall totals, road conditions, and anything else relavent to this storm that other folks may want to be aware of.  Thanks!

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A very heavy wet snow fell during the overnight period. Most areas did pick up between 2-4" of a very heavy snow, with between 4-6" in the eastern part of our viewing area (Eastern Herkimer, Otsego County).  We hit the low end of our forecast range, and a lot of it had to do with temperatures.  Temperatures did not fall much below freezing last night, and at times some raindrops mixed in with the snow.  This kept the accumulations down.  The heavy snow is sticking to everything outside, so it will make for a nice winter wonderland this morning.

Light snow and even a few rain showers are expected for the remainder of the day.  Snow will have difficult time accumulating during the daylight hours with temperatures above freezing.  It may even mix and/or turn over to rain at times this afternoon.  A few snow showers are possible tonight before the next storm arrives.

Precipitation

The big event arrives here on Thursday.  The GFS has slightly speed up the arrival time of this storm, arriving as early as tomorrow afternoon.  Precipitation looks to start out as all snow for all of Central New York, and it will be quite heavy on the onset of the event.  Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be important to watch, as they are expected to go above freezing before the storm begins.  Like we saw with the previous storm, the initial round of snow will be a heavy wet snow.  We expect the snow to start quick and to start heavy, so it shouldn't be tough to get the snow to stick during the beginning of the event.  A quick few inches (perhaps more) are possible for the Thursday evening commute.

Things change by Thursday night.  As the storm intensifies, warm air on the right side of the storm will wrap around the storm and pull as far inland as Central New York.  We are seeing the possibility of this happening on the BUFKIT temperature profile.  Check it out on the image above.  This is a map of how the temperature is changing from the ground up for every hour between 7PM (right hand side) and 1am Friday (left hand side).  In order for snow to change to sleet, the upper part of the atmosphere has to go above freezing (0°C). As highlighted, temperatures near 850mb briefly go above freezing during the peak intensity of this storm, sometime Thursday evening. 

The best chance for the changeover to sleet would be from Utica to the east and north.  This is based on the orientation of the tilted storm.  It's unusual, but possible for the Adirondacks to see sleet yet parts of Pennsylvania to stay all snow.

Based on the given data and intensity of precipitation during this part of the storm, we estimate a reduction in about 30% of the total snowfall due to mixed precipitation.  This will change as new information comes in.  In our experience whenever there seems to be the chance of mixed precipitation, more often than not it finds a way to happen.  We'll continue to keep a sharp eye on this and give you the latest thoughts as we get more information.

As for totals, the QPF has ranged somewhere between 0.75"-1.25".  In order to figure out how much snow we could see, we have to resolve the sleet issue.  At this point, it looks to be at least several inches, but we'll wait for one more model run (12z)  before we make the call.

Winds

The pressure fields in this storm will plummet as the storm intensifies.  When the pressure in a storm drops 24mb in 24 hours, the storm is considered a meteorological "bomb".  Our forecast models are predicting the storm to drop from 1008mb on Wednesday night to less than 986mb on Thursday night (22mb...so it will be close).

With the pressure dropping that quickly, the pressure gradient (the change in pressure over distance) will strengthen tremendously across the northeast.  Pressure gradient is a force that drives wind.  With a strong gradient, wind speeds will likely exceed 30-40mph at times especially Thursday night into Friday.  A look at the BUFKIT profile shows winds peaking around Thursday night through Friday morning.  Winds at 2000 feet elevation (900mb) are forecasted to become sustained at 40mph.  If these winds mix down to the surface, winds may gust over 40mph at times during the strongest part of the storm.  The winds will gradually decrease Friday as the storm weakens and the pressure gradient relaxes. 

Other things to watch

The heavy, wet snow coupled with the strong winds does put the potential on the table for isolated power outages.  While we aren't terribly concerned with this scenario at this point, it is something to bear watching and to keep in mind as we head closer to this storm.  The heavy wet snow will also make traveling conditions very tricky Thursday evening and Friday morning.  We'll continue to keep you posted with the latest on the storm throughout the day.

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Up to this point, it's been a depressing winter for the snow lovers here on the blog.  So far this winter, we've had plenty of storms for the Mid Atlantic, the south, the west...everywhere but Central New York.  Well, it looks like the snow lovers will finally get their turn.  Two storms this week will bring many of us the largest single event snow totals many of us have had all year.

The first storm arrived last night, bringing many of us a wet couple of inches of snow.  That storm, in Canada now, is heading to the north and east.  The next storm is developing off the Atlantic Coast.  This one will interact with a weak trough situated across Central New York left over from the first storm.

An east wind on the north side of the low will bring Atlantic moisture across New England.  Without that trough in place, we'd only get a few inches of snow.  That trough will act as a lifting mechanism on a very moist airmass, creating heavy snow over a narrow area.  Expect heavy snows for Central New York tonight, heaviest east of Utica. 

This a strange setup to get heavy snow in Central New York.  There are some questions as to where the heavy the snow will fall tonight.  One of our computer models (the NAM) is going ballistic with snowfall totals over CNY and points east.  The other one (GFS) is much more tempered with accumulations.  We're going with a blend between the two for tonight.  I think 3"-7" may be a starting point for snow, because if things work out we could be getting a lot more than that.

The Atlantic storm moves inland on Wednesday.  Heaviest snows will fall from Utica to the east.  There will be a sharp cutoff of snow with this storm, making the forecast pretty tough.  At this point, an addtional 3"-7" may fall from Little Falls to the east, with a very sharp cutoff to the east (perhaps only 1-3" for Herkimer west).  Again, these are only preliminary thoughts...look for our snowfall maps posted on our website for the latest.

As if this wasn't enough, a bigger storm will form right behind tonight's storm.  This one has the potential to be the largest of the season.  In fact, it's possible that this storm may be too large for it's own good.  Warm air aloft has the potential to turn snow to sleet during the middle of this event.  The warm air will come in from the east, and may draw as far inland as Central New York and the North Country.  Winds will be  strong with this one, and precipitation totals will likely exceed 1.0" across all of Central New York.  If that stays all snow, we'll see a foot or more out of this, but if any sleet mixes in, the snow totals will be cut down significantly.  We need a few more model runs to know how this storm unfolds.  In the meantime, we'll hold our breath.  

Either sleet or snow, the Thursday storm will create very strong winds.  Per BUFKIT mixing layer and wind speeds, wind gusts could exceed 40mph during the strongest part of the storm (Thursday night).  Once we get through tonight/Wednesday's storm we'll focus and fine tune on all the details for Thursday.  One event at a time! 

Lots of opportunity for heavy snows over the next few days.  We'll keep you posted with the latest information in the comments below. 

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The weather in February has been somewhat quiet, with our nickel and dime snow events, and many missed storms. One thing that I noticed (especially today) is that February has been unseasonably cloudy. November is usually our cloudiest month, but this year we had 15 days of cloud cover (50% of the month). As for February, including today, we have had 15 days of cloud cover (71% so far this month) with many cloudy days ahead. The clouds over the next week will help add to the total cloudy days but it will also help our snowfall totals (only 12.3" for February, with the largest one day snowfall of 2.3").

We are heading to a very complex and complicated week in the weather center. Over the next week, we have potential to see 2 low pressure systems impact the weather across Central NY. The first looks to arrive Monday night into Tuesday with round 2 for Thurs/Fri. To keep things simple, let’s just focus on round #1 tonight. Even though we are 24-36 hrs out, models are still all over the place with this storm system. A low pressure system that started to the east of the Rockies this morning, is making its way to the Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow. Then the low is actually going to track to the north into Ontario, just east of Michigan by Tuesday morning. At the same time, a secondary low off the coast of the Carolinas and move to the northeast. This is when the models go all over the place. By Wednesday, we have several scenarios of what could happen. NAM: Brings the low off the coast of Massachusetts, bringing in heavy precipitation to Connecticut, Eastern NY (Albany and points east, as well as the Hudson Valley) and the Berkshires. At the same time, CNY may see some lake enhanced snow. GFS: Low pressure is well offshore of New England and has a hard time dragging in cold air, so we may see some mixed precipitation on Tuesday afternoon as the wind shifts to the ESE (again we will have to keep an eye on the wind direction, if it stays east, we may have issues with freezing rain/sleet in the eastern part of the Mohawk Valley). Precipitation looks to be light, with the heaviest snow closer to the coast (Green Mountains, Berkshires and Catskills). Euro: The low tracks closer to Long Island and Rhode Island by Wednesday morning, bringing in the heaviest snow closer to Boston, with lighter snow for interior Northeast. The Euro is noticeably closer to the shore compared to the GFS and is tightly wound. The big questions are 1) where will the track be 2) how quickly will warmer air move into CNY on Tuesday. As of right now, it looks that Eastern NY and Western MA, CT and VT may hit the jackpot with snowfall totals. But CNY will see some snowfall.

 

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The weather pattern over the next few days will be dominated by a storm in Eastern Canada.  The storm will draw winds into the northwest across Central New York, along with bringing plenty of moisture to the area.  The combination of the stagnant airmass along with an inversion may give us some sleet and freezing drizzle today, tonight, and tomorrow.  This happened earlier in the winter, and I wanted to bring back that article as to why this weather event is happening.  From January 7th:

Freezing drizzle is a lighter form of freezing rain, when tiny water droplets falling from the sky freeze on the surface.  This creates a layer of ice on the ground, cars, trees, anything it can stick to.  Freezing drizzle is different from sleet, which freezes before it hits the ground, creating little balls of ice that "ping" as the hit the ground.

Under "typical" conditions, freezing rain occurs when a layer of warm air is sandwiched between cold air on the ground, and cold air aloft.  Snowflakes falling through the atmosphere melt into raindrops as they move through the warm layer.  The rain then falls to the ground, where temperatures are below freezing, causing the rain to freeze on the ground.

There was no "warm layer" in place last night, as seen in the Buffalo sounding.  Instead, a low layer of cold, moist air is found trapped under a shallow temperature inversion at 900mb (about 3000 feet).  The temperature and dewpoint in this layer are nearly identical, meaning the layer was saturated, or unable to hold any more water.

Cold air can't hold as much water in it as warm air (hence why winters are dry and summers can be humid).  If you cool air that is saturated (can't hold any more water), the excess water has to condense out of the air.  This process produces clouds, and if it happens near or at the surface, it produces fog (which is a cloud at the surface.

Here's where physics kick:  when water droplets condense out of the air, they have to "stick" to something in order to overcome something called the curvature effect.  The best way I think of explaining this is to think of water as being more of a "sticky" substance.  When you touch the side of a glass, you'll notice that the water will stick to your hand as you slowly try to pull it away.  Water molecules are bonded tightly, allowing this to happen.  When condensing water vapor finds something to stick to, such as a dust particle, it turns instantly into liquid water.  The particles in the atmosphere that are needed to be present in order to produce clouds are called cloud condensation nuclei.

When liquid water tries to freeze, it has to overcome the curvature effect.  If it can't it won't freeze.  This is why it's possible to observe water below the freezing point.  This is called supercooled water.  Here's a neat video I found on YouTube that I show to my students:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSPzMva9_CE.  Again, the reason why we're seeing the "instant freeze" is that the water found something to stick to, and the effect was pretty rapid.

Last night and this morning, we observed supercooled water droplets falling out of the moist layer of atmosphere that was in the process of cooling down.  We didn't have the necessary cloud condensation nuclei in the atmosphere for these particles to stick to in order to create fog (the air was too clean...imagine that).  Instead, these droplets were big enough to be seen, and feel as freezing drizzle.  The minute these particles hit the ground, they froze instantly, as the surface was enough to break the curvature effect of those tiny particles.  A pretty neat, rare event here in Central New York.
 

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