Warmest High Temperature of 82° (1973,2003) Coldest High Temp for Dome Game 16° (1982) Coldest High Temp for Non-Dome Game 43° (1972) Wettest Super Bowl .92 inches (2007) Outside Games With High Wind Gust (1980, 1984, 1989,2007)   If you remember last year, a huge winter storm hit Arlington, TX a week before the Super Bowl and snow fell from the roof and injured 6 people.   For those looking for winter, I have not found it yet. This week looks abnormally quiet with a chance of snow Monday night into Tuesday but little to no accumulation is expected. Highs tomorrow to look to hit 40°+ with mostly sunny skies.

]]>

It's Groundhog Day!  Our furry little friend has spotted his shadow this morning, which means a prediction of 6 more weeks of winter.  Does this prediction mean anything in the world of science?  Not really.  It's a folklore.  How accurate is Phil for CNY?  Just for fun, let's check it out.

Definition of early spring-

I looked at the averages for the month of March- the snowfall and temperature departures.  If the snowfall was above average and temperatures below average, this counted as a late spring.  Below normal snowfall and above normal temperatures, an early spring.  The ones that didn't follow those rules were not counted.  It's not the most scienfic way of determining an early spring, but it captures the spirit of the study.

Here are the past predictions from the groundhog from http://www.stormfax.com/ghogday.htm:
 

	Shadow	No shadow	March snowfall	March temp dep	Early spring?	Correct
1995		X	6.2	3.71	Y	N
1996	X		30.1	-3.58	N	Y
1997		X	21.4	-1.26	N	N
1998	X		8.9	4.35	Y	Y
1999		X	27.7	-1.36	N	Y
2000	X		5.4	6.93	Y	Y
2001	X		47.7	-4.66	N	N
2002	X		12.7	0.95	-	-
2003	X		6.6	-0.95	Y	Y
2004	X		11.2	2	Y	Y
2005	X		26	-4.16	N	N
2006	X		14.3	-1.18	-	-
2007		X	16.9	0.44	-	-
2008	X		13	-2.15	N	N
2009	X		0	1.95	Y	Y
2010	X		0	6	Y	Y
2011		X	22.1	-2	N	Y

Out of the 14 years I used, the groundhog was right 9 times and wrong 5 times.  Better than 50%...at least using this method.  Not bad!

]]>

With all the talk of how mild it has been around these parts lately I thought it might be fun to take a look at just how persistent the warm spell has been.  What I’ve found is a bit illuminating to say the least.

 

January, 2012 will go down in the books with an average temperature of 27.19 degrees – not enough to make our Top Ten list of Warmest Januarys, but still a solid 6.06 degrees above average.

 

Here’s a look at how the past several months have compared to average.

 

Month	Temperature	Departure
	(deg F)	(deg F)
January, 2012	27.19	6.06
December, 2011	32.82	5.80
November, 2011	44.02	5.54
October, 2011	50.35	1.45
September, 2011	63.93	3.63
August, 2011	69.31	0.81
July, 2011	72.53	2.33
June, 2011	66.05	0.55
May, 2011	60.58	3.38
April, 2011	45.80	1.00
March, 2011	30.52	-2.08

 

That’s right.  The last month at Griffiss Airfield to register below average temperatures was nearly a year ago.  Such a situation hasn’t occurred since last March.

 

Additionally, this season’s snowfall of 27.8” through January 31^st is the lowest amount, season to date in recent memory.

 

Temperatures at the time of this writing (11PM, January 31^st) are an extraordinarily warm 55 degrees at Syracuse Airport, and a still respectable 44 degrees at Griffiss in Rome.

 

Temperatures will remain on the mild side through Wednesday with a few rain showers working through.  A cool down of sorts, with a few snow showers are possible Wednesday Night – but temperatures will remain above average for the next several days.

]]>

Welcome back to winter!  A series of fast moving weather systems has brought snow back into Central New York.  So far today, as of 10am, 4.8" of snow has been measured since overnight in Utica.  This marks the biggest single day snowfall of the season so far for this location.  The seasonal snowfall totals are updated and can be found here.

Snow slowly backs off...

The lake effect band has been generous to our area this morning.  Several inches of a fluffy snow has fallen across Oneida, Madison, and Herkimer Counties.  BUFKIT did a great job pointing out the reintensification of the band this morning along with the position.  The band will lift north through the day and weaken during the afternoon.  It likely will take all day to get rid of the snow completely, but the significant accumulations will be over before noon.

Here we go again...

A warm front passes through tonight, bringing us a widespread snowfall.  The setup is looking good for another couple of inches of accumulation.  This looks like a decent overrunning event (warm, moist air riding over cold air).  The orientation of the front along the lake will provide extra moisture downwind of the lake shore.  In addition, upslope snow along the hilltops north of the valley will likely create bonus snowfall.

You can find the latest snowfall forecast for tonight here.

Elephant in the room again...

A warmup is expected again tomorrow and Wednesday.  There are the ususal question marks on how far above freezing we'll go.  Upper 30s/low 40s by Wednesday will be enough to melt off some of the snow.

]]>

It has been a busy evening in the weather center with the passing of a cold front. The front brought snow squalls, windy conditions and thunder and lightning. Yes, you read that right. We had numerous reports of thunder and lightning from 630PM until 730PM, all across the viewing area. No, the world is not ending. While it is rare to have thundersnow, it is not out of the ordinary (just youtube Jim Cantore thundersnow). Thundersnow is just like a thunderstorm in the summer. Tonight, we saw a clash of mild air (temperatures in the low to mid 40s) and cold air to our west. It is rare in the winter because there is not much instability in the atmospher due to the lack of moisture and cold temperatures.  For thundersnow to occur, the air layer closer to the ground has to be warmer than the layers above, but still cold enough to create snow. Besides cold fronts, thundersnow is possible within intense lake effect snow bands. The mix of ingredients necessary for thundersnow is so uncommon that experts have estimated that only .07 percent of snowstorms are associated with thunder.

Behind the Front

Winds have picked up behind the front, sustained between 15-20mph but gusts over 30mph. The wind will continue to be brisk tonight into Sunday morning. The wind has already turned westerly and lake effect took no time to set up over Lewis and Northern Herkimer County. There is a Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Lewis and Northern Herkimer Counties until 10AM. You can find the snowfall forecast here: wktv.bimedia.net/snowfall.jpg
Lake effect will wind down by the mid morning before round #2.

Rather, rinse and repeat

Yet another cold front, a strong cold front, moves in Sunday afternoon, with snow squalls and windy conditions. Most areas will see a quick inch of snowfall and falling temperatures. Once again, thunder and lighting are possible with frontal passage. A flash freeze is possible Sunday evening on untreated surfaces.Behind the front, winds turn more northwesterly, bringing the lake effect snow into or just south of the Mohawk Valley. I will have more details on this on Sunday. Don't let this winter weather excite you, we could very easily hit 50 degrees by Wednesday.

]]>

After a slice of winter weather yesterday, it's back to a soaking rain this morning, even in the deep pockets of the Adirondacks!  Rain will taper down as the storm system responsible for this rain will slide north and east of the area.  As the storm departs, the pressure gradient deepens, creating gusty wind in our area late this afternoon and tonight.

A cold front arrives this afternoon and will be accompanied by a round of snow showers.  I don't see much of an accumulation, with temperatures near or above freezing while the flakes still fly.  Perhaps a slushy coating to an inch on the hilltops.  We will see more light snow this weekend, and here are the details...

Zonal flow = small sprinters

The jet stream flattens out a bit this weekend, creating something meteorologists call 'zonal flow'.  A flat jet stream favors fast moving, weak storm systems.  We have a few opportunities for light snow this weekend from these fast moving systems.  Let's have at it:

Burst of snow late Saturday?

A fast moving cold front swings through on Saturday night.  The winds stay mainly westerly, despite the trough taking a negative tilt.  Remember, a negatively tilted trough tends to pack a bit more energy.  The only moisture to work with comes off the lakes, so a round of fluffly light snow is possible Saturday night, especially north of the Thruway. 

BUFKIT shows marginal conditions for lake effect Saturday night into Sunday along a 270 flow (Tug Hill).  We will monitor the winds for any subtle shifts between now and then, but it appears that any snow that continues Saturday night into Sunday stays north of the viewing area.

Lake flakes Sunday...

Another shortwave drops in from the west on Sunday, extending the chance for snow showers into Sunday.  The GFS is more aggressive with this feature, developing a weak, closed low and squeezing it to the north.  This track would favor light lake effect snow, with some accumulations.  With these minor features, it's often difficult to pin down snowfall amounts and duration beyond 24 hours.  Remember, the smaller the feature, the more difficult the forecast.  We'll keep you in the loop though through the weekend.

]]>

The second half of January is the climatological minimum...the coldest part of the year.  Our average high is 28° with an average low of 13°.  Our average high so far this month is 36° with an average low of 16°.  Another month that looks to average above normal this winter.

Zero change in pattern...

The overall pattern so far this winter has favored fast moving southern runners and western runners.  The absence of cold air across the majority of the country has played a major role in reducing snowfall totals across the area.  The lack of cold air reduces lake effect and produces more rain/freezing rain/sleet events rather than snow events.

Will it change?  Unfortunately, not in the near future.  The next weather event Thursday night into Friday looks to be another 'mixed' bag of precipitation.  It may initially start out as a period of sleet/freezing rain before switching to plain rain.  We'll break down the details on that tomorrow given the complexity of the situation. 

Interesting National Headlines...

A few interesting stories of recent in national news.  First, a solar storm made headlines over the past few days. Like hurricanes, solar storm intensity is classified on a scale of 1-5.  Despite the buzz, last night's event was rated a G1.  The northern lights from it last night were a disappointment locally...not just because of cloud cover.  The lights didn't even come close to our latitude. 

Southeast uproar...

I've also been following the tornado outbreak in the southeast that happened earlier in the week.  The local meteorologists are upset at the way ABC World News handled the headlines on Monday.  You can watch the opening report here.  Viewers are lead to believe that these storms surprised everyone and came "without warning".  Not true at all.  The local meteorologists, National Weather Service, and Emergency Managers were well aware of the possibility of tornadoes and destructive storm days in advance.  If the storms were truly a surprise, the death toll would be in the hundreds.

This isn't the first time meteorologists have been "thrown under the bus".  Recall the Indiana State Fair collapse back in the summer.  Again, the national outlets claimed a surprise event with no warning.  There were severe thunderstorm warnings issued by the NWS before the severe winds took down that stage.  The problem was with the slow reaction of the state fair officials.  In this case, the facts did take a bit of time to come out.  Still, a simple call to the local weather service office could have brought more clarification to the story.

The fact is that big events (large, destructive tornadoes, hurricanes, major snowstorms) rarely "sneak up" on meteorologists these days.  Big tornado outbreaks can be predicted days in advance, which is something that wasn't possible a few decades ago.  The lead time on tornadoes is nearly 30 minutes.  In the mid 1990s (remember Twister?) the lead time was less than 5 minutes.  Though not perfect, the technology is getting much better....and it saved a bunch of lives on the southeast over the past week.

]]>

Monday will go in the books as another mild January day all across Central New York.  Today's high at Griffiss was a balmy 45 degrees, a solid 15 degrees above seasonal average.  Things will trend cooler over the next few days, but even with cooler weather, we still expect temperatures to be higher than our seasonal average.

 

Rain showers, drizzle and patchy (advection) fog are all scattered across the local area late this evening.  A cold front is now crossing Western New York and Pennsylvania, but the air behind this frontal boundary is only marginally cooler aloft.  Still, temperatures may cool just enough for any lingering showers to mix with some wet snow by daybreak Tuesday, especially across the higher elevations.  Gradually cooler air will slowly filter into CNY aloft during the day Tuesday.

 

By Tuesday evening, winds are expected to align over Lake Ontario on a 250 to 260-degree orientation as 850 millibar temperatures fall to around minus 10 degrees.  With lake surface temperatures around 4 degrees Celsius, this will likely be just enough to generate some lake effect snow. 

 

The lake effect for Tuesday Night has a lot working against it for snow lovers.  Instability is there, but it's not great, and what is expected to happen is that after the band develops, a short wave trough will dive through late in the evening and likely pull the band southward.  So at this point we see a) a weak band of lake effect and b) one that is transitory in nature - not likely to hang around any specific real estate for an extraordinary length of time.  Still, some areas could see a couple of inches of accumulation, so you'll want to keep that in mind for your travels on Tuesday Night.

 

High pressure is slated to build in for Wednesday, likely killing the lake effect quickly after daybreak.

 

Next weather maker to watch is a southern stream system for later Thursday and Thursday Night.  Latest trends have been taking the moisture further north, with some model disagreement on the extent of the cold air in place as precipitation arrives.  At this point odds favor more of a mix or a mix that changes to rain rather than all snow.  Should this pan out, we'll likely only be adding to our snowfall deficiency for the season, which now stands at 31 inches below seasonal average.

]]>

After a relatively quiet weekend, the weather turns more unsettled starting late tonight into Monday. Currently, skies remain partly to mostly clear, allowing temperatures to drop into the upper teen this evening before increasing back into the upper 20s throughout the overnight. A warm front approaches the area during the overnight into Monday morning. Ahead of the warm front, some light precipitation is possible by daybreak Monday. This scenario is called an overrunning event. Overrunning occurs when warm, moist air (which is less dense than cold air) rides up and over cold, dry air (which is what is over us tonight). When warm, moist air lifts into the atmosphere, it cools and condenses into clouds and light precipitation. With temperatures below zero for most of the night, there is potential for some freezing drizzle over the typical cold spots. The best chance would be Central and Northern Herkimer County into Hamilton and Northern Fulton Counties during the early morning. While the precipitation will be on the light side, some light icing is possible, especially on untreated surfaces. Main roads should not be a problem if they have sand or salt on them.

 

By the mid morning, winds turn south and temperatures climb into the low to mid 40s. Steady rain looks to arrive during the afternoon and evening, out ahead of the cold front. This is the same system that is the reason behind the severe weather over Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and Mississippi. There is PDS or Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch over this area tonight with the potential for a tornado outbreak. This is very rare for January. So far there have been 21 reported tornadoes for 2012. The average date for the first tornado of the year is January 11^th. ]]>

TGIF!  What an overnight for some folks!  A few reports of 9-12" of snow in extreme Northern Oneida County such as Boonville, Alder Creek, and Kayuta Lake.  The Doppler Radar estimation of snowfall max was in the Tug Hill, where nearly a foot fell.  Good news for you snowmobilers & skiers: it looks like a great weekend to get out and enjoy the new snow.  We'll get a little more tonight and early tomorrow too.

Next system tonight...

An area of low pressure develops over the next 12 hours to our southwest (Ohio River Valley).  This storm zips to our south overnight, but will be close enough to throw in some overrunning precipitation.  It likely starts near or after midnight, and will continue through at least half of Saturday.  A widespread light snowfall is expected.  The steadiest snow looks to be to the south of our viewing area.  A light snowfall is expected.  We'll have a map out before noon.

The things to keep an eye on with this one is how quickly the secondary surface storm develops.  The 12z NAM is hinting at quick development of a surface low off the coast.  The timing, position, and intensification of this feature needs to be monitored.  The impact it could have would be to continue the light snow farther into the day on Saturday, perhaps adding another inch or two to the forecast.

Warmup...

A quick hitting warmup takes place on Monday with a 24 hour period of strong warm air advection.  Temperatures look to climb well above freezing for a bit across parts of the area.  The east wind, cold air damming, and other factors will need to be addressed over the weekend to see how far in our area this warm air gets.  Stay tuned.

 

]]>

Thanks to high pressure, much calmer conditions and fresh snowpack, temperatures have really tumbled across our area this evening.  As of 11 PM, the reading at Griffiss was 5 degrees.

 

Some sunshine will greet Central New Yorkers on their way to work and school on Thursday.  In fact, most of the daylight hours of Thursday will have uneventful weather with nothing more than a gradual increase in cloud cover.  That will change after sunset.

 

Already the next weather maker is rapidly approaching from the Upper Midwest in the form of a shortwave trough.  This feature will continue to trek eastward through the day.  Models show some intensification as well.  In fact, the latest run of the WRF shows the trough becoming "negatively tilted" (www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/) as it crosses our area.  This leads to greater instability and the potential of a gusty snow squall during the evening.  For most of our area, we're only expecting an inch or two of accumulation through the evening.  Keep in mind though that this may occur in only an hour or two and will likely be accompanied by gusty winds.

 

Some additional scattered snow showers will filter in for Thursday Night and early Friday as the lake effect machine briefly switches on.  Dry air will win the battle, much as it did today, by later Friday afternoon.

 

More widespread snow is possible by Saturday.  We'll iron out the details of the weekend forecast over the next couple of days.  In the meantime be alert for rapidly changing weather conditions for Thursday evening.

]]>

A strong cold front is crossing Central New York late this evening.  AN intense pressure gradient between areas near the area of low pressure and frontal boundary and areas away from this system is causing very gusty winds across the local area.  As of 11 PM, winds have gusted as high as 60 mph at Syracuse Airport.  High wind warnings are in effect through Wednesday for Oneida, Lewis, Madison, Chenango and Otsego counties, with wind advisories in effect for the rest of Central New York.

 

Colder air is already filtering into Western New York in the wake of the frontal passage.  In fact, after reaching a high of 45 degrees on Tuesday afternoon, daytime temperatures Wednesday will struggle to reach much above 20 degrees with a polar air mass regaining control.

 

Thanks to the arrival of cold air, lake effect snow has developed off of Lake Erie and we'll see lake effect snow from Lake Ontario locally through the early morning hours.  Temperatures will fall quickly through the early morning hours, making for the potential of black ice by the morning commute.  Keep in mind the possibility of tricky travel.  Latest information suggests that the lake effect won't be very long lasting, with dry air expected to kill the bands by later Wednesday afternoon.  Still, a few fluffy inches will accumulate in some areas by then.

 

High pressure will provide clear skies and cold overnight temperatures for Wednesday Night.  Another disturbance will likely bring a round of light snow to the area by the end of the day Thursday.

]]>