Winter Returns to Central NY

Posted February 23rd, 2014 by Jill Reale. 83 comments

Even though a cold front moved through both Friday and Saturday, it sure did not feel like it outside today with most areas once again climbing into the low 40s. The official high on Saturday was 45° and 41° on Sunday. The last time we had at least 2 consecutive days of highs in the 40s was back on January 11th-15th. Winter returns with a vengeance starting late tonight and continuing throughout the week as cold air pushes in from the north. It is hard to believe that we are talking about lake effect snow at the end of February, especially with 88% of the Great Lakes ice covered. The one exception is Lake Ontario, which is only 32% ice covered.  When does the snow start? Cold air aloft does not arrive until after Midnight, so expect the snow to develop later tonight into Monday morning.  The flow will start off as a 270/280 flow that aligns Southern Lewis County and Northern Oneida County tonight into Monday morning. It looks like the steadiest snow will be north of the Thruway through the Noon hour on Monday. During this time of year, with the higher sun angle, the heaviest snowfall rates occur overnight into the morning. By the afternoon, the band will begin to fall apart slightly but skinny, finger like bands will develop with localized snow showers into the early evening.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, the winds shift into more of a west-northwesterly direction, dipping the lake effect snow to a 290 flow, or down into Southern Oneida and Madison Counties. As always, this shift in the band is not concrete as just a slight shift in the wind could make a huge difference in where the band will set up on Monday night. Light lake effect snow continues into Tuesday afternoon before the band lifts well north, out of our viewing area. So who wins the jackpot? At this point, Oswego County looks to be seeing the highest snowfall totals out of the lake effect snow. Elsewhere, everyone looks to see at least some snowfall accumulation: Tonight-Monday Afternoon: North of Thruway. Monday Night-Tuesday Morning: South of Thruway.

The other big story will be the return to frigid temperatures. Just when we think we are out of the woods, Mother Nature brings the cold back. The core of the cold looks to be Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures not getting out of the teens and overnight lows once again could be below zero. There is also an opportunity for light snow on Wednesday as a clipper passes through. Looking towards Heart Run & Walk weekend, temperatures look to be below normal with some snow showers. Stay tuned.As always, snowfall map can be found here: http://wktv.bimedia.net/snowfall.jpg

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Comments

  1. Justin (Rome):

    Temps are falling at a good clip..north country already around 20*..Bring on the LES!!

    Posted February 23rd at 9:12 PM

  2. Chris (HP CoCoRahs) (Holland Patent):

    Seasonal totals up to 110.3” now with the pick up o the snow on Monday looking to add more over the next few days. Band placement looks to be tricky as always. Temps dropping outside

    Posted February 23rd at 9:30 PM

  3. Michael (Dolgeville):

    Saesonal snowfall total is 75.5” inches here

    Posted February 23rd at 9:44 PM

  4. Justin (Rome):

    According to latest NAM, NWS should be upgrading madison and onadoga counties with warnings…seems they will be getting the most out of this event!

    Posted February 23rd at 9:50 PM

  5. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Jill,

    Seasonal snowfall at 109.2”. Marcy Town Park area (900ft elevation). Was outback this afternoon and definitely over a foot left on the ground. Went for a walk this afternoon around the corner from my house where it is heavily shaded and was very surprised that there is definitely over a foot and half of snow left in the shaded areas.

    Justin,

    I am not buying the NAM, BUFKIT keeps the band along and north of the TWAY..... NAM has been way too far south with the bands this year. Just my two cents.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:58 PM

  6. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Meso’s are all over the place. From what I’m seeing over the lakes I would favor the WRF/NAM right now. It’s going to be a good event for everyone as this lasts through Tuesday.

    Posted February 24th at 1:02 AM

  7. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    17 degrees, light wind, snowing hard here right now.

    Posted February 24th at 5:02 AM

  8. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    Snow total for the year so far 108.8”.

    Posted February 24th at 5:06 AM

  9. Denys (East Winfield):

    18 degrees with moderate snow falling. 1.6” of snow on the ground over night Our seasonal snowfall total is 107.4” plus the 1.6” = 109”.

    Posted February 24th at 5:19 AM

  10. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    I’m sticking with BUFKIT here – keeping the bands of snow along a 285 flow today. Band looks impressive now, but should lose steam after sunrise as the late February sun works on it.

    Posted February 24th at 5:35 AM

  11. Louis (Barneveld):

    Barneveld’s in the path of a 285 flow right? :-)

    Posted February 24th at 5:40 AM

  12. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    22* here with 0.8” overnight.

    Posted February 24th at 6:52 AM

  13. MG (Point Rock):

    I have 3.0” at this point

    Posted February 24th at 7:51 AM

  14. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    2.0” of Fluff Snow during the night last night.
    Our overnight low temp. was 16*, presently
    the temp. is 20*

    Posted February 24th at 8:06 AM

  15. snowman78 (Stokes Hill (leecenter)):

    3.5 inches so far….snow has stopped for now.

    Posted February 24th at 8:55 AM

  16. CJ (Little Falls):

    Snowing heavy here in Herkimer-came on fast!

    Posted February 24th at 9:22 AM

  17. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Just measured 1.0” of snow here.

    Posted February 24th at 9:57 AM

  18. Mel (Rome):

    Sun just came out in Rome!

    Posted February 24th at 10:45 AM

  19. Mel (Rome):

    Daytime heating definitely weakening the band and spreading it apart a bit.

    Posted February 24th at 11:07 AM

  20. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Mini snow squall is heading through Oneida County. Once this passes, the weather should improve.

    Posted February 24th at 11:39 AM

  21. Mel (Rome):

    Yeah coming down hard in Rome now.

    Posted February 24th at 11:45 AM

  22. Rob (Whitesboro):

    1.5” here with flurries.

    Posted February 24th at 12:42 PM

  23. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Well we got the 285 flow. But we can’t get anything going here in Oneida. Couple 10” reports on the Oswego/Oneida line so far. Seems like BUFKIT has a better handle on this and maybe we can get something going here soon.

    Posted February 24th at 2:18 PM

  24. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Interesting that there’s been more activity south of the thruway. Must be some weak disturbance moving through.

    Posted February 24th at 2:26 PM

  25. Louis (Barneveld):

    3.8” of fluff here with 10” drifts!! Snowed heavy for most of the morning and it has been on and off snow bursts through the afternoon, really windy now with moderate snow (which will most likely end in 5 minutes).

    Posted February 24th at 3:04 PM

  26. Louis (Barneveld):

    Will band stay 285 tonight as it reorganizes, or will it drift away from it’s current position???

    Posted February 24th at 3:17 PM

  27. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I think it will Louis. NAM/WRF have been wrong so far. We’ll give them a little credit and call it a 290 flow. On and off squalls here this afternoon with nothing additional.

    Posted February 24th at 3:33 PM

  28. Justin (Rome):

    Yea the NAM has been totally wrong…was showing most of the heaviest to our south..hope this band gets going again after sun goes down at the same flow as this morning..any reports from north of Rome? Snow Totals?

    Posted February 24th at 3:49 PM

  29. Louis (Barneveld):

    Thanks a lot guys! Has been a heavy snow with 1/4 mile visibility now for the past 15 minutes, so I’m probably just around 4” now in terms of accumulation.

    Posted February 24th at 3:51 PM

  30. snowman78 (Stokes Hill (leecenter)):

    We got 5 inches up here on stokes hill snowing moderately right now.

    Posted February 24th at 4:08 PM

  31. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Band should organize soon. Already looking a little better. It’s gonna go all night…and if we can keep it at 280/290 were’going to have some hefty totals by morning.

    Posted February 24th at 4:30 PM

  32. Louis (Barneveld):

    I like that Rob!! :-)

    Something else to note, the GFS has now been showing a coastal storm sometime over the weekend for the past 8 runs or so. It’s still a while away, but just something to keep in mind.

    Posted February 24th at 4:35 PM

  33. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    3.5” here so far…. Setup looks good for 285/290 tonight.

    Posted February 24th at 4:38 PM

  34. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yup Euro has it too. Lake effect will be cranking all week also in different areas. Lots of winter to go!

    Posted February 24th at 4:46 PM

  35. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    1.0” here since last night.

    Posted February 24th at 5:11 PM

  36. Rob (Whitesboro):

    BGM has 8-14” in a line from W’boro to Camden. So I guess they are tossing out the further south NAM/WRF.

    Posted February 24th at 5:11 PM

  37. MG (Point Rock):

    I had a heavy burst between 4PM and 6PM, picked up 2 inches in those 2 hours. Total now at 7.0” (as of 6PM)

    Posted February 24th at 6:52 PM

  38. Mel (Rome):

    Very windy in Rome but the radar looks like the band is not extending that far inland past Route 46

    Posted February 24th at 6:54 PM

  39. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Just saw a report of 14” in Taberg and 8” in McConnellsville.

    Posted February 24th at 7:14 PM

  40. Louis (Barneveld):

    It seems that the band isn’t moving east or south of Rome…I sure hope that changes. Only light snow here now that is not showing up on the radar. 4.4” here as of 7:30PM.

    Posted February 24th at 7:34 PM

  41. MikeS21 (Deerfield):

    I hope there is no coastal storm this weekend. Im heading to Newark NJ for a concert Saturday and Im hoping for smooth sailing to and from

    Posted February 24th at 9:11 PM

  42. sbcotton112 (whitesboro):

    it looks like the band is moving south and getting better organized if i am seeing it right.

    Posted February 24th at 9:11 PM

  43. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like we got a 280 and a 290 band. The 280 is into Vermont but the 290 can’t make it past Oneida?

    Posted February 24th at 9:47 PM

  44. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Up to 6.2” as of 10 PM.

    Posted February 24th at 10:13 PM

  45. Justin (Rome):

    LES looks good all the way until Friday..hardest hit areas appear to be N Oneida and S Lewis..Close to 2 Feet if i am seeing it correctly! Let it snow :)

    Posted February 24th at 10:19 PM

  46. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Arctic front on Thursday will be brutal too. High winds hvy snow and below zero wind chills.

    Posted February 24th at 10:30 PM

  47. Rob (Whitesboro):

    How much snow in Rome? It’s been snowing at Griffis for 24hrs.

    Posted February 24th at 10:36 PM

  48. Justin (Rome):

    We may have gotten 4-5”..alot of it has fallen from delta lake northward towards north western..they have at least 8”

    Posted February 24th at 10:42 PM

  49. Justin (Rome):

    What is causing the band to be broken up? thought it would be more intense due to no sun and colder temps

    Posted February 24th at 10:45 PM

  50. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I have a coating here this evening. Mostly from the past hour.

    Posted February 24th at 10:47 PM

  51. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I’m not sure. The air isn’t too dry with dews above 10 degrees. Maybe a lack of moisture from upstream as those lakes are frozen.

    Posted February 24th at 10:50 PM

  52. Ralph (New Hartford - Elevation 900 ft.):

    Lake Ontario band of snow moving south – I think dry air is making the band look more broken. Lake Erie band looks pretty good for a frozen lake.

    Posted February 24th at 10:52 PM

  53. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Heavier burst of snow in the last 30 minutes. Now up to 8” of snow.

    Posted February 24th at 11:00 PM

  54. Justin (Rome):

    Gordon- Wow I guessed right about your snow total not to long ago haha…awesome let it snow!

    Posted February 24th at 11:06 PM

  55. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Monster squall here the past hour. Picked up 1.6” since midnight. That might be it though by the looks of things.

    Posted February 25th at 12:59 AM

  56. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Snowfall from this lake effect event in North Utica is 1.5”. (1” yesterday, 0.5” overnight).

    Posted February 25th at 4:25 AM

  57. Denys (East Winfield):

    8 degrees with light snow falling. 4” of snow since this time yesterday when I measured. (yesterday during the day, plus overnight)

    Posted February 25th at 5:25 AM

  58. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Folks,

    Welcome to the tail end of lake effect season. The lake just doesn’t perform like it would earlier in the season. This is not a surprise on our end.

    Posted February 25th at 6:29 AM

  59. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    0.5” last night bringing LES total to 1.5”

    Posted February 25th at 6:44 AM

  60. Nick (West Winfield ):

    12 degrees here with a fresh 1.5 inches of fluf overnight. Yesterday’s squall was amazing…

    Posted February 25th at 6:51 AM

  61. Louis (Barneveld):

    0.8” last night, bringing my LES total to 5.2”. 5°F at the moment with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

    Euro has a pretty good snow storm going early next week, GFS shows same storm but is warmer, and is showing a possible mix, while Canadian model sends it out to sea, missing us. Still plenty of time before next week, this will have to be watched closely.

    Posted February 25th at 7:28 AM

  62. MG (Point Rock):

    Lake effect did pretty well up here, ended up with 11.9”....only 0.4” after 11PM.

    After losing 8” of my snowpack during the thaw, I’ve got that back, plus. Depth last night was 25”, deepest of the season.

    Posted February 25th at 7:59 AM

  63. MG (Point Rock):

    Low this morning of -2

    Posted February 25th at 7:59 AM

  64. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Something we’ve noticed over the years – the lake band doesn’t extend as far inland later in the season. It’s still possible to get decent (12”+) lake effect events, but they are often confined much closer to the lake shore compared to events earlier in the season.

    Posted February 25th at 8:27 AM

  65. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    2” more LES Snow here this morning.
    Our low temp. last night was +12*

    Posted February 25th at 9:58 AM

  66. Gordon (Northwestern):

    No snow here after midnight. 8.1” total yesterday. Snowpack at 21”’. Which is only 1/2” lower then my season high. Low last night of 2.

    Posted February 25th at 10:15 AM

  67. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    4.5” yesterday 1.5” last night, storm total 6” even Marcy Town Park area 900ft elevation.

    Posted February 25th at 10:51 AM

  68. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Storm total here was 3.1”

    Posted February 25th at 12:32 PM

  69. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Arctic front tomorrow morning with some LES and a more potent front Thursday with more LES. Should get several inches the next few days. Weekend looks snowy but nothing significant to me.

    Posted February 25th at 12:49 PM

  70. Louis (Barneveld):

    Heavy snow with 1/10 mile visibility for the last 20 minutes! This heavier than anything I had yesterday, probably 1 3/4 inch per hour rate now.

    The 12z GFS doesn’t‘t hit us as hard as previous runs for next week storm, does anyone know what 12z Euro Runs are showing for the next week storm?

    Posted February 25th at 2:36 PM

  71. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I didn’t see the Euro today but off of e-wall it looks further south and out to sea.

    Posted February 25th at 6:47 PM

  72. Louis (Barneveld):

    18z GFS now takes that storm even further away from us, it now looks like a miss…still plenty of time, we’all see what happens.

    Another 1.9” LES today, bringing my storm total to 7.1”, not too shabby for the end of February!

    Posted February 25th at 7:17 PM

  73. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Snowing here with a coating on the car. Not sure where it’s coming from. Arctic front is well west and LES in way north.

    Posted February 26th at 12:43 AM

  74. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Arctic front will cross through CNY between 5-7am this morning. A brief burst of snow and wind will be accompanied with the mini squall.

    Posted February 26th at 4:20 AM

  75. Denys (East Winfield):

    7 degrees with light snow falling.

    Posted February 26th at 5:22 AM

  76. sue (fairfield):

    getting a nice squall here as well even though the radar doesn’t see it…...13*

    Posted February 26th at 6:36 AM

  77. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    16* here with a dusting overnight.

    Posted February 26th at 6:50 AM

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