Winter Outlook 2011-2012

Posted October 28th, 2011 by Bill Kardas. 26 comments

This year’s WKTV Winter Outlook calls for average temperatures with above average snowfall. Our team predicts 105”-125” of snowfall for the season for Utica, NY. Our explanation to our forecast can be found below…

Before we get into the specifics, it’s important to go over the differences between an outlook and a forecast. Predicting the outcome of a season is a very different art, and requires a very different approach than traditional forecasting. Instead of looking at specific storms, we are looking at general trends and long term patterns. In other words, we won't be able to answer questions like "how many nor'easters will hit CNY this year", or "will there be snow on the ground on Christmas?". These are questions related to individual weather events; it's beyond our capability to see specific events beyond 2 weeks. We can, however, look at long term trends and patterns based on a variety of different factors. We can then take this information and make general statements about the upcoming season. In a nutshell, that’s what our winter outlook is all about.
Methodology
Our seasonal outlook relies on forecasted ocean & lake temperatures. Ocean temperatures can be predicted reasonably well months in advance and have been shown to influence long term weather patterns. Changes in ocean temperatures in both the Central and Northern Pacific influence the jet stream pattern. The temperature of the Great Lakes, particularly Lake Ontario is important in determining the strength and intensity of lake effect events.
This years outlook is based on the prediction and historical analysis of long term weather patterns including La Niña and PDO that influence our weather.  Our team studies these patterns and anticipates the future state of these patterns.  Finally, we'll take these conditions and compare them to similar winters of years past.  Our data on these patterns goes back to the 1950s.
La Niña Revisited
Like last year, La Niña is back this winter. Recall from last year that La Niña forms when trade winds are stronger and more intense in the Pacific. This brings even colder water to the Eastern Basin of the Pacific (near South America) and even warmer water to the Western Basin of the Pacific (near Australia).  We can measure the intensity of La Nina through something called the Ocean Nino Index (ONI). This is a three month mean of sea surface temperature anomalies across a particular region of the Pacific Ocean. The stronger the La Niña phase, the more negative the ONI. The current ONI for the months of July, August, and September is -0.2. We expect that number to drop sharply over the next few months. Here’s a look at the projected forecast of ONI for December, January, and February:
Dec Jan Feb
-1.5 -1.5 -1.2
Our forecast last year was based on a statistical analysis of previous La Niña years and drawing a forecast based on 5 of the ‘best fit’ years. We’ll revisit those years and add last winter (also a La Niña winter) to the mix (making 6 similar seasons):
    Dec Jan Feb
1973 1974 -2.1 -1.9 -1.7
1975 1976 -1.7 -1.6 -1.2
1988 1989 -1.9 -1.7 -1.5
1998 1999 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2
1999 2000 -1.6 -1.6 -1.4
2010 2011 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3

 

And a general look at those winters:

    Snowfall Temperature
Year Season Departure DJF DEP
1973 1974 114.4 15.5 25.2 1.4
1975 1976 107.1 8.2 23.4 -0.4
1988 1989 60.2 -38.7 23.5 -0.3
1998 1999 84.6 -14.3 28.6 4.8
1999 2000 67.7 -31.2 26.0 2.2
2010 2011 116.0 19.9 20.7 -3.0

It’s interesting to note that when factoring La Niña alone, the winter can still vary considerably. Our forecast last year. Last year’s winter deviated from the previous 3 La Nina winters, falling more in line with La Niñas of the 1970s. Is this just a coincidence or is there something else in play? Our team believes a recent change in the Northern Pacific may hold some clues. 
PDO
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a phase similar to an El Niño or La Niña that accounts for Northern Pacific Ocean temperatures. The PDO is different than the ONI due to the fact that its pattern of warm (positive) and cool (negative) phases persist for 20-30 years, where the ONI ranges from 6 to 18 months. Over the past several years, the PDO has gone from positive to negative or more to a cool phase. Cool phases of the PDO coincide with wet periods from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. In terms of temperatures, cool phases of the PDO tend to lead toward below normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Remember, the oceans play a large role in the atmospheric circulation pattern, which determines our weather. With the contrast of cooler than normal weather across Northern US and unseasonably mild weather in the Southwest. A ridge builds over the Gulf of Alaska, which sends the jet stream well north into Alaska and then pushing a digging trough into the Midwest and Great Lakes. This track would send storms from the Rockies into the Midwest and Great Lakes.
We find it highly interesting that negative PDO La Niña winters account for higher than average seasonal snowfall, while positive PDO La Niña winters favor less than average seasonal snowfall.  We don't think it's entirely a coincidence and have some data and science to argue that point.  Our data set over the past 60 years has three winters that match our expected upcoming conditions.  All three of those winters saw similar season snowfall totals, but no pattern in average temperature.  There are other influences in our weather that account for changes in temperature.
Wildcards
The wildcards in the equation are the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North American Osciallation (NAO). This feature was partially responsible for keeping us locked in the freezer for most of last winter. Since this feature is not driven by ocean temperatures alone, it is difficult to predict more than a few weeks in advance.
The NAO is associated with a low pressure system over Iceland and a high pressure system over the Azores. When the NAO goes negative, it usually means that there is a trough in the east and a ridge in the east. The NAO controls the strength and direction of storm tracks across the North Atlantic. If the NAO stays negative, it reduces the pressure gradient between the low over Iceland and the high over the Azores, thus the westerly winds would be more zonal. This would create more cold outbreaks and unsettled weather over the eastern US.
The AO has been trending negative over the past several years but can fluctuate between positive and negative within a small period of time. During a negative AO, a high pressure builds over the polar region and a lower pressure in the midlatitudes, this creates a weaker zonal wind, thus the movement of cold air can easily be pushed into the United States. Because the NAO and AO fluctuate on a daily and monthly basis, their effects cannot be set in stone.
Late start/late finish
Historically, La Nina favors a warmer than usual fall. Our fall so far has followed a similar pattern. With that in mind, we expect a later than usual start to winter.   Last year’s La Nina November brought much less snowfall than average. The lakes stayed on the warmer side heading into December.
What we don’t get early, we’ll most likely get later on. La Nina favors a cold, snowy March. Last year was a textbook example. Not only did we have a record snowfall event, we stayed cold well into the latter half of the month. Here’s a look at several other examples:
Year March Snowfall
1973 1974 24.4
1975 1976 20.9
1988 1989 6.6
1998 1999 27.7
1999 2000 5.4
2010 2011 22.1
Lake Effect Snow

As many of you know, lake effect snow plays a large role in our total snowfall. In fact, lake effect snow makes up roughly 50-75% of our snowfall (varies depending on location and year). This year, the numbers are expected to be higher than average.  
Where does it come from? 
Lake effect snow occurs when cold air moves over a warm lake (ie Lake Ontario or Lake Erie). There are several key components of lake effect snow; instability, wind shear, wind direction, temperature of the lake, temperature of the atmosphere and moisture. There needs to be at least a 13° difference between the lake temperature and the air temperature at 850mb. Currently, Lake Ontario is at 57° and Lake Erie is at 57°. The average for this time of year is 56°, so the lakes are running slightly above normal.
Lake temperatures this year
This time last year, the lakes were 2 degrees cooler yet we still saw a good amount of lake effect snow during the winter season, especially in December. Syracuse accumulated 72.8" of snowfall, mostly from lake effect snow.  The lakes look to be very active this year due to the warm lake temperatures but also due to the access to some very cold, Arctic air. It will be a slow start but the lake effect snow will start to crank in late November and into December.
Other Notes on the Research
There are things we did not use in our winter forecast that we wanted to address. In our experience, specific weather patterns in the past (things like a heat wave, a heavy rain event, an early frost) are not correlated to future conditions. In other words, this hot summer can’t be tied in to our winter forecast because there isn’t a true connection between the two. Even specific events such as an early frost or early snowfall can’t easily be tied to the overall winter outlook. It may make sense to think an early snowfall can bring a cold, long winter. However, the conditions that brought that early snow may not necessarily last all winter long.  A perfect example of this idea at work was last spring.  The wet spring did not correspond to a wet summer, much like some assumed.
Summary
The combination of a cooler Eastern (La Niña) and Northern Pacific (Negative PDO) will lead to a more easterly and deeper seasonal jet stream. This in turn favors more frequent cold outbreaks and lake effect events. In addition, the more common snow events in Central New York are likely to be found in Alberta Clippers (land track storms) rather than Nor’easters (Atlantic storms).  A late finish to the winter is expected as La Niña continues to influence our weather into the upcoming spring season.

Tags: winter outlook

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Comments

  1. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    As you can see, we have a lot of information posted about the winter outlook. Feel free to read and discuss. We also understand there’s a lot going on with the weather forecast tonight so we also want to address some of the details. Bottom line is you want to plan on dealing with snow Saturday, especially if you live south of the Mohawk valley, where enough could fall to shovel. 18z runs have shifted farther north and west. Adam will keep you in the loop with new details as they develop tonight and Jill will be here all weekend with the latest.

    Posted October 28th at 5:54 PM

  2. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    GREAT JOB guys!!!!!I love your forecast.:):)

    Posted October 28th at 5:56 PM

  3. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Yuck Bill….October and shoveling snow should not be in the same sentence!

    Secondly, what is the chance that we can keep the LES further north this year, last year was a BANNER and HUGE year for the 290 folks????!!!!

    Posted October 28th at 5:56 PM

  4. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Jeff ya…Sat. looks sick for us..lets hope that does not trend even more west!! And ya, last year was a HUGE year for us 290 folks!!

    Posted October 28th at 5:59 PM

  5. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    I am staying up till 0z tonight… I am thinking 4 to 8 inches right now for us Jeff on Hilltops(that is know way set in stone and could change given trend)... Close call.

    Posted October 28th at 6:03 PM

  6. Andy (Forestport):

    I don’t ever recall hearing about La Nina or El Niño back in the 70’s or 80’s now every year we seem to have one or the other.

    Posted October 28th at 6:03 PM

  7. Denys (East Winfield):

    31 degrees, calm and cloudy. What a chilly day today here!

    I am not looking forward to this storm tomorrow, although most of the snow from yesterday and last night is gone. (except for right around my house!)

    Posted October 28th at 6:16 PM

  8. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Denys lets hope that does not go any more northwest tonight..trust me that wont be good. .....

    Posted October 28th at 6:29 PM

  9. sue (fairfield):

    is this storm being considered a n’oreaster?

    Posted October 28th at 7:01 PM

  10. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Nice job weather crew….sounds good!

    Check out the intense banding on the 18Z. This has thundersnow written all over it.
    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t18z/frontb29.png

    Posted October 28th at 7:48 PM

  11. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Not to get the focus off the Noreaster, but has anyone checked out the GFS/MRF for next weekend…. that would make for a VERY interesting LES setup… i think we will be getting some decent snows here before too long

    Posted October 28th at 7:53 PM

  12. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Any one else staying up for 00z tonight?

    Posted October 28th at 9:34 PM

  13. Chris (HP Weather) (Holland Patent):

    I would love to see more than average snow this winter… I think where I am were going to miss out the bulk of the snow.. but I will take a few inches anyhow.. Weather team did great on there outlook this year, it comes close to one NWS put out not to long ago.. Rob ..I would like to see if that setup stays in the model runs.. I will report snow fall if it accumulates

    Posted October 28th at 10:01 PM

  14. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    0z stops the trend..now Im waiting for GFS. GFS should be interesting.we will see.

    Posted October 28th at 10:36 PM

  15. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    And that is 0z Nam..

    Posted October 28th at 10:37 PM

  16. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    looks like a nice shift back to the average on the 00Z NAM, South and East with majority of snow staying away!

    Posted October 28th at 10:37 PM

  17. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Not byeing that yet Jeff…waiting for GFS.

    Posted October 28th at 10:39 PM

  18. Adam Musyt:

    00z NAM matches up very well with our going forecast. No changes for the 11:00 news.

    We’ll hope for continuity at this point.

    Posted October 28th at 10:54 PM

  19. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Just the slightest move to the west and we are back in it here..I have been looking at NAM this whole time when GFS has been pretty consistent since 6z..We will see what happens with 0z GFS.

    Posted October 28th at 11:04 PM

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