Weather Blog | Winter Outlook: 2008-2009

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For those looking for the video, as well as a simple version of the outlook, click here to open a new window with that information.

The winter of 2008-2009 poses a difficult forecasting challenge for us. In the winter of 07-08, we had a La Niña signal from the Pacific. In 06-07, we had an El Niño signal from the Pacific. This season, there is not a clear cut signal coming from the Pacific Ocean. Often times, having that available can help narrow down some of the possibilities for what may occur in the coming winter.

That said, based on our research, there are numerous other things for us to look at. After working on this, we believe the winter of 2008-2009 will be characterized by slightly colder than normal temperatures and below normal snowfall here in Central New York (with perhaps some exceptions on the Tug Hill Plateau, where near to slightly above normal snow might be possible).

December should see pretty solid colder than normal conditions (especially early) with slightly below normal snowfall outside of the lake effect belts.

January will transition into typical "January thaw" style conditions by mid to late month, with slightly below normal snowfall and likely below normal temperatures.

February will be near to potentially significantly above normal in the temperature department, with near normal snowfall.

March should end up a bit colder than normal with above normal snowfall. The actual maps are below.

The reasoning is as follows....

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The Pacific is in what we call a neutral state right now. There is no strong signal for an El Niño or La Niña, so we have to assume that neutral will be the way to go. That being said, some of the longer range climate models, while keeping things near neutral, are biased a bit colder toward a La Niña, where the water temperatures of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are slightly below normal. We looked back at about 60 years worth of data and pulled out the years that saw ENSO neutral years during the autumn. We went further and split those years into two subsets: Years that stayed near neutral as the winter progressed and those that trended toward a stronger signal for an El Niño or La Niña episode.

Here are all the ENSO neutral autumns, with some bias toward years coming out of a La Niña like we saw last winter: 2001, 1996, 1981, 1980, 1966, 1960, 1958, 1952

Here are just those ENSO neutral autumns that saw near neutral/weak La Niña conditions through winter: 2001, 1996, 1981, 1980, 1960

1992 was not included in either list because it was coming off a pretty solid El Niño in the months leading into autumn. 1966 and 1958 both had El Niño’s in the previous winters as well. 1966 trended toward a weak Niña and 1958 trended to a weak Niño in the months of winter, both considered a bit too strong for purposes to be included with added weight.

While the equatorial Pacific is a driving force behind large scale weather patterns, given the neutral behavior, more work needed to be done.

We pulled years that were similar to the summer/autumn of 2008 in the following areas:

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): Water temperatures in the North Pacific have been running quite warm (cold along the West Coast), and thus, the PDO has been rock solid negative. PDO events can last 20-30 years, and it is theorized that we may have entered a negative PDO phase, which may have longer range implications on seasonal forecasts. ENSO events (El Niño/La Niña) typically last only 6-18 months, and their impacts on our weather can be deemed secondary. The PDO can have direct impacts on our weather over a period of time.

Traditionally, when the PDO is in its current phase (cool/negative), that would lead to milder, wetter conditions in the Northeast/Great Lakes. This may go against the logic of our winter forecast overall, BUT, last year, the impacts of this were not felt in our area until late January, when we entered into an approximately 45 day period of mild/unsettled weather in our area. A similar situation may evolve this season as well, leading to a period of mild, unsettled weather, including systems that may pose multiple forecasting conundrums (rain vs. snow vs. ice). This lines up well with our mild February forecast.

Primary autumns we liked in our forecast based on PDO data were 2001, 2000, 1994, 1975, 1948 and 1939.

Pacific North American Index (PNA): The PNA is a significant teleconnection index that is based on what occurs in the Pacific. A positive PNA index is indicated by a ridge in the West and troughing over the Eastern Pacific. This would translate to a general troughing pattern in the East, which leads to colder and snowier conditions. The PNA has trended from negative to positive in the last few months. We found many potential analog years for the PNA, but only one (1964) really stood out as following a similar pattern to this year.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): The NAO is one of the biggest teleconnection indices we look at in winter for the potential for storminess in the East. A positive NAO is characterized by a strong area of high pressure in the Central Atlantic, with an area of low pressure over Greenland and Iceland. Traditionally, this setup would allow for milder, wetter conditions to work into the Eastern US. A negative NAO is characterized by a strong area of high pressure aloft over Greenland, translating to warmer weather...occasionally referred to as a "Greenland Block." This allows a generally trough to develop in the East, allowing for colder, snowier conditions.

We found a ton of years that had similar characteristics to this year in the NAO department, but none that really saw summer and early autumn behave quite like this (which has been negative since April, with the exception of September). 1958 came closest and was chosen as our primary analog to NAO behavior this year.

Arctic Oscillation (AO): The AO is based on behavior of atmospheric pressure in the high mid and high latitudes. The AO is negative if there is relatively high pressure over the North Pole and low pressure not too far above our latitudes. A positive AO implies the opposite, where higher pressures exist in the mid-latitudes, keeping us milder than normal, but Greenland colder than normal. Recall that a negative NAO leads to milder conditions in Greenland. In this sense the NAO and AO sort of work hand in hand. A negative AO implies that colder conditions can dive deeper into the US in the East.

The AO has been positive through much of October after going within a few ticks of normal before that. We found a few years we liked, but the best were 1993 and 1960.

Other Areas

We looked at a few other areas that we put less influence on as well: The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which tracks the sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean. Since 1995, this index has been on the positive side of the coin. Years where the exact number behaved similarly to 2008 so far included 2004 and 1958.

In the tropics, while the Atlantic has had an overall busier than normal season, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE) in the Northern Hemisphere (including the Pacific Ocean) has been decidedly below normal. Typically, less tropical activity could lead (depending on how things actually behave) to less heat transfer from the Tropics to the Poles. Less heat transfer means the potential that more cold can build in the Poles and potentially lead to colder conditions.

Lastly, the storm track of this autumn has been interesting. We've been plotting the tracks of areas of low pressure in the East since September. Often times, trends that develop in autumn can be translated deeper into the cold season. There have been three primary storm tracks this autumn: Across the Lakes and to our north, over us, and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast out to Eastern New England. Storm tracks to our north and west imply the potential for warm air flooding in ahead of them, potentially creating more precipitation type forecasting problems. Storm tracks over us and into New England, to me, imply the potential for more "Alberta Clipper" type systems. And of course, storm tracks off the East Coast imply nor'easters.

It appears that most of the storms tracking off the coast have been relatively weak and a bit too suppressed to impact us, with the exception of the late October snowstorm. I would suspect that we see the N & W tracks a bit more later in the season, with periodic Clippers and the potential for a few nor'easters. Unfortunately for snow lovers, what we're seeing this autumn isn't exactly positive in terms of having nor'easters impacting us. In fact, we noticed that in the analog years we chose, snowfall was above normal in Boston, Hartford, and Providence, near normal in Albany, and below normal in Scranton, Ottawa, Toronto and Binghamton.

So when putting things together, we decided to sort our analogs into a couple groups. The best analogs that showed up more than once were 2001, 1960 and 1958. We found 1993, 1980, 1979, 1964, 1955, and 1952 to be very good analogs as well. One issue we did discover though was that some of these years, while showing up multiple times, also had very strong El Niño or La Niña signals. While that may or may not make a difference, we decided that when it came down to it, we should break the analogs we have into two groups: Those that showed strong El Niño or La Niña signals and those that did not.

Seasons we used for analogs that were scrutinized: 2001-02, 1996-97, 1993-94, 1981-82, 1980-81, 1960-61, 1958-59, 1952-53

In the 2nd batch of analogs we included those seasons, as well as the following: 1993-94, 1979-80, 1964.65, 1955-56

Believe it or not, there was no real significant difference in both groups of analogs in relation to what they meant for Central New York. So I present the raw data to you:

Utica
Season	Avg Temp	Snowfall
2001-2002	31.845	57.5
1996-1997	24.35	123.5
1993-1994	20.75	173.6
1981-1982	24	74.4
1980-1981	------	58.1
1960-1961	22.55	70
1958-1959	21.2	67.6
1952-1953	29.65	51.2
	24.90642857	84.4875

	-1.1	-14.4

Normals	26	98.9

PRIMARY

2001-2002	31.845	57.5
1996-1997	24.35	123.5
1993-1994	20.75	173.6
1989-1990	25.875	92.4
1981-1982	24	74.4
1980-1981	-----	58.1
1979-1980	24.95	55.7
1964-1965	25.4	87.2
1960-1961	22.55	70
1958-1959	21.2	67.6
1955-1956	21.9	109.3
1952-1953	29.65	51.2
	24.77	85.0416667

Using the best analogs, the winter ended up colder than normal when all was said and done, with cold signals in December and January, near normal in February and mixed signals for March. That being said, judging by the national maps we looked at in these analog years, I am leaning toward the mixed set of analogs, and going against them with a warm February. Also notice, snowfall in both sets of analogs for Utica averaged 10-15" below normal.

As an aside, I got curious (after being reminded of a 2001 autumn lake effect event at Montague) and looked at other Upstate locations and snowfall. The results may surprise you. Albany's results were mixed, which I think is indicative of the potential impact nor'easters may have that far east. Binghamton ended up 5-10" below normal. Syracuse ended up 3-7" below normal, and Rochester ended up 2-5" below normal. Buffalo? Had mixed results, but ended up with the more interesting stats: Using the best analogs (first set), six of eight seasons had above normal snowfall. What does this imply? Well, for one, it might imply that southwesterly flow was a driving force in lake effect precipitation. So although we think Utica will see below normal snowfall, it is possible that areas of the Tug Hill end up with above normal snowfall. Given how this lake effect season has begun, this is certainly a real possibility.

One thing of note... 1993-94 is on both lists, and ended up as our second snowiest winter on record. So while seasonal forecasts involve a lot of work and are fun, one or two snow events could destroy this forecast if they set themselves up correctly. There you have it!

Temperature Maps

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Comments

Andy (Forestport):

Matt

What are your thoughts on lake snows for north country for this winter?

Posted November 13th at 6:52 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Andy: I don‘t know what‘s normal in a lot of locations, but if I absolutely had to, I would go around 4-8% above normal for Lewis and northwest Oneida, near normal in your backyard back toward Westernville and up toward Old Forge and then dropping back off as you head south to slightly below normal.

So for instance, if Redfield averages 300” per season, I‘d give them 320”. If Boonville averages 190”, I‘d give them about 192”. If Westernville averages 150”, I‘d give them 145”. Utica, averages 98.9”...I‘d give them 88”. That‘s as it stands now.

Posted November 13th at 7:00 PM
Matt (HP):

Matt is there any correlation between La nina/el nino/nothing with setups? Are you expecting lots of little snow accumulating or less occuring big setups dumping a lot of snow?

Posted November 13th at 10:19 PM
Stevo (Rome):

i want 250 nches in rome!!!!!!! bring it!

Posted November 13th at 10:30 PM
Stevo (Rome):

matt i always see you guys using 300,or a 280 degree flow for lake effect snow. what would be the best number for rome to be right directly in the band?

Posted November 13th at 10:34 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Matt: I just typed out all the data and got shafted and lost the post.

The bottom line was that we average 2.9 days of 6” or more of snow/season in these analog years…a normal winter sees 3-5 days of 6” or more of snow. Consecutive days with a trace or more of snow also averaged below normal in those years.

Posted November 13th at 10:54 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Stevo: 285 would be the Valley, so you‘re looking at 280-290 flow there.

Posted November 13th at 10:55 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

GFS at 00Z continues to indicate one heavy shot of cold for mid-week (Tue-Wed), an even colder shot for Fri-Weekend, and then perhaps even another shot of cold heading toward the weekend following Thanksgiving. This pattern is amazing for November.

Posted November 14th at 12:29 AM
Mikey:

Never mind about Lanza & Co‘s scientific winter forecast. I bought two snowmobiles last year and had to trailer them to the snow with an open trailer and they got filthy /rusty because of it. This year I bought an enclosed trailer and that means it is going to snow like the dickens down here. I also think you guys did an awesome job on the forecast and can appreciate the hard work that went into it!

Posted November 14th at 1:27 AM
Andy (Forestport):

Matt

Do we have a shot at some decent lake snows next week?

Posted November 14th at 7:41 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Andy: Unfortunately this pattern isn‘t going to be noted for its snow I don‘t think, but rather the cold. That being said, Sunday into Monday is looking particularly interesting for the North Country to get snowed on. The general setup is: Lake snows develop, mixed with rain, Sunday afternoon, transition to all snow as the cold air deepens and persist, somewhere between northern Oneida and the Lowville area…where? Still unsure..more later. The band will at some point lift north Sunday night or Monday as a trough digs in. Then Monday evening, winds will abruptly shift into the NW and then NNW, dragging the band south across the entire viewing area, before settling it back in the Finger Lakes. I don‘t foresee much, if any, snow Tuesday and Wednesday in our area. This could change, but that‘s how it stands right now. With the persistent movement of the band, I believe this will prevent anyone from seeing any eye-popping totals. As for the second round next weekend, too early to tell. More later.

Posted November 14th at 9:30 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Stevo – I know a 290 flow is pretty good for our area. On another note I can‘t believe how fast the snow melted up in Barnes Corners. They were still at around a foot yesterday and now there is grass!

Posted November 14th at 9:42 AM
Andy (Forestport):

Matt

Any chance of backend snows for sat sunday event?

Posted November 14th at 10:30 AM
Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):
HOLY COW MEL! Yeah, there was a lot up there the other day. Didnt take long
Posted November 14th at 12:47 PM
Matt Lanza:

Andy, Maybe…I will analyze and have more later.

Editing to add: Just looked at the GFS/NAM and frankly I‘m not excited about any back end snow here…this would be confined further west of I-81 if the current scenario plays out. But we‘ll see.

Posted November 14th at 12:54 PM
Mike(leonardsville):

How does it look for that Monday night football game in Buffalo. I had the possibility of going, but i‘m glad i‘m not now.

Posted November 14th at 4:56 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Mike: I‘ve been watching that closely for Pat Bailey, as he‘ll be there. With the wind shift occurring around mid to late afternoon here, that means about 2-3 hours earlier in Buffalo….which should take the lake band and shunt it south of Buffalo and probably well south of Orchard Park as well….so the tailgating might be fun, but I think the game will be uneventful weather-wise. The drive back to CNY would also be…. fun, with multi-band snow between Syracuse and Rochester.

Posted November 14th at 5:10 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

New entry up!

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