Winter Halftime Report

Posted January 18th, 2013 by Adam Musyt. 32 comments

Since we’re just past halfway through meteorological winter and the weather is relatively quiet this evening I thought it would be a good time to do a “Winter Halftime Report” of sorts.  Over the course of the Fall, many of our viewers have written emails and left calls into the weather center (not to mention the Facebook posts) questioning whether or not this season would be mild like the last or harsh as a contrast to it.  In our winter weather outlook we made a prediction that this year would be much closer to a typical one here in Central New York, with snowfall near to perhaps just a bit shy of the thirty year average and temperatures near to just a bit above the thirty year average.  So far, with all of the ups and downs, we’ve been more or less close to the mark.

 

Here’s a look at where we stand in the snowfall department through January 19th and how this compares to recent years.

 

Season

Amount through 1/19

2012-13

34.0

2011-12

15.5

2010-11

45.8

2009-10

38.6

2008-09

71.1

1981-2010 Average

48.6

 

While not quite to the halfway to 100” mark that is typical of halfway through the season, we’re quite a bit closer than where we stood one year ago.

 

Temperature-wise, December was above average.  The cold and snow which settled in starting the weekend before Christmas wasn’t enough to counter balance the mild conditions of the three weeks prior and we wound up finishing the month with an average temperature of 32.55 F, or 5.5 degrees above average.  So far in the month of January our average temperature stands at 27.5 F. This is over 6 degrees above the 30-year average.  We strongly suspect that this temperature surplus will shrink significantly over the next seven days as an arctic air mass settles in.  Still, these numbers represent a remarkable resiliency for warmer than average weather to linger on.  Should January’s temperatures remain above average through the end of the month this would mark an astonishing 11 out of the last 13 months with above average temperatures.

 

So that’s where we stand for the season thus far.  But what about the weekend?

 

Late this evening a warm front is approaching from the Upper Midwest.  With the front there are a few snow showers and some of these will cross our area through the early morning hours of Saturday.  The best chance of seeing an inch or so of snow will be north of the NYS Thruway where the precipitation will be more persistent.

 

Once the front lifts north of our area Saturday we’ll be in for a brief mild spell.  Southerly breezes will draw in relatively warmer air and temperatures will climb well into the 30’s to near 40.  The mild weather won’t last though.  We still expect a sharp cold front to arrive Sunday morning, likely with scattered snow squalls.  Any squalls could leave a quick local accumulation of an inch or two along with slippery roads.  Once the front drops south of our area the latest indications are that the air mass will dry out and cool off quickly.  In fact a deep freeze looks likely through much of the new work week with highs in the teens and lows flirting with the zero degree mark.  While no big storms are forecast through the first half of the week there will be opportunities for some lighter snows as weak waves dive into the region around the base of the polar vortex in Eastern Canada.  This is great news for skiers as the resorts will be able to make snow for several days in a row. 

 

If winter isn’t your thing and you’re already thinking spring there is some good news for you too.  Now that the solstice is behind us, we're getting to the time of year where we start to gain daylight, little by little.  On Tuesday the sunset time is 5:00.  The last time this happened was way back in November.  On March 10th we begin observing Daylight Saving Time.  By then the sunset is at 7:00!  That’s less than two car payments away!  In the meantime make it a great weekend.

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Comments

  1. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Snow not reaching the ground here yet. It’s 19 degrees here. NAM/SREFS look better for lake effect on Sunday night on tonights run.

    Posted January 18th at 10:25 PM

  2. Denys (East Winfield):

    25 degrees, overcast and windy. Up before the birds this morning!

    Posted January 19th at 4:36 AM

  3. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    28 degrees, overcast and windy here also. No new snow during the night.

    Posted January 19th at 5:51 AM

  4. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    34* here and windy.

    Posted January 19th at 7:02 AM

  5. sue (fairfield):

    31 here….breezy

    Posted January 19th at 7:07 AM

  6. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    28 degrees here this morning.
    I cant wait until Sunday….looks fun :).

    Posted January 19th at 7:13 AM

  7. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Good morning! Breezy conditions throughout the night continue this morning and afternoon. The southerly wind will push temperatures to near 40 degrees. This will put a damper on what is left of the snow pack across the area. Enjoy the warmth, frigid temperatures arrive by tomorrow night.

    Posted January 19th at 7:14 AM

  8. Norm (Floyd, NY):

    33* here this morning.

    Jill, Will the southerly wind bring any southern sunshine?

    Posted January 19th at 7:53 AM

  9. Anthony (Oriskany 565 ft.):

    South wind already in CNY. Pretty surprised. I always expect resistance from the East wind.

    Posted January 19th at 8:09 AM

  10. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Norm,

    Looks like we could see some afternoon sunshine. Syracuse already up to 39°, Buffalo at 41°

    Posted January 19th at 8:21 AM

  11. Gordon (Northwestern):

    I don’t think we are going to see much Lake effect snow. Everyone will see a little snow with the cold front passage on Sunday. After that I think the wind will be too strong at first to get any good bands going, there will be too much shear, and they will be unorganized. By Monday When the wind slows down and he air gets colder, I think we wouldn’t have enough low level moisture in place for good lake effect, and the high pressure coming in, is strong and is coming in too fast. Probably get some lake effect on Tug Hill early on wiith a combination of LE and oragraphic lifting before the wind turn into the Northwest later Sundy, and probably shuts down most of the snow even on Tug Hill. I hope I’m wrong, because I really want to get the snowmobile out again.

    Posted January 19th at 9:23 AM

  12. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    12z NAM BUFKIT looks good for Sunday night/ early Monday morning. 290/300ish degree flow. Fast couple of inches for some places, Instabilty/moisture looks good at least for a little bit.
    12z NAM picking up on more QPF for Tuesday. :) Good ratios too.

    Posted January 19th at 11:33 AM

  13. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Well its really Monday night into Tuesday that is. My bad.

    Posted January 19th at 11:48 AM

  14. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah BGM was talking at least an Advisory. Sounds like a trough is going to enhance the lake effect wherever it sets up. Flow settles to 300 on the NAM Sun night.

    Posted January 19th at 11:51 AM

  15. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah pretty much all week. Few short waves will keep changing the wind direction but looks fun,

    Posted January 19th at 11:54 AM

  16. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Up to 42* here.

    Posted January 19th at 12:07 PM

  17. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Madison & Southern Oneida Counties until 08:00 AM

    Posted January 19th at 3:45 PM

  18. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    High of 45* here today.

    Posted January 19th at 3:57 PM

  19. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Wind Advisory for the viewing area from 7AM to 7PM Sunday. Expect winds 15-30MPH with gusts near 45MPH.

    Posted January 19th at 4:23 PM

  20. Weatherdog (Utica - UC Hill - 500 ft. elv.):

    @Adam

    Looks like winter might start the third quarter on the offense!?

    Posted January 19th at 5:02 PM

  21. sue (fairfield):

    high of 42 today….any idea what direction that wind will be out of ?

    Posted January 19th at 6:06 PM

  22. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    A day after the 8-14 day CPC outlook hinted at a warm-up, today it shows below average temperatures.

    Posted January 19th at 6:47 PM

  23. Anthony (Oriskany 565 ft.):

    Jimmy, I have been following the CPC forecasts for some time and dont think they are very accurate.

    Posted January 19th at 6:52 PM

  24. Anthony (Oriskany 565 ft.):

    Jimmy, I have been following the CPC forecasts for some time and dont think they are very accurate.

    Posted January 19th at 6:52 PM

  25. karij (cold brook):

    Ok can you magically make this artic air go away? Sorry just a riff on blame the weather people. Not looking forward to this at all!

    Posted January 19th at 7:23 PM

  26. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Karj: Not that easy :)

    I am working on a blog entry about the details about tomorrow…stay tuned.

    Posted January 19th at 7:25 PM

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