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What a difference a week and half makes! I left for Florida with temperatures in the mid 60s in central New York and return on the verge of an arctic blast. This is going to be a transitional weekend from seasonal temperatures to down right frigid temperatures. Lets break this weekend down.

Overnight/Saturday Morning

Quiet conditions for tonight and into Saturday morning as the air around us is relatively dry. Perhaps a few flurries to the North. Temperatures will fall back into the teens and with the wind gusting to 25-30 mph, wind chills will be in the single digits. Saturday morning will be quiet with mostly cloudy conditions and maybe a few peaks of sun! Any lake effect snow showers that develop will be off to the north of our viewing area due to a WSW wind.

Lake Effect Snow Watch is in effect for Northern Oneida, Northern Herkimer, and Lewis Counties from Saturday Afternoon into Monday Morning*

Saturday Evening

The first area of low pressure and cold front will push through late afternoon, sparking off a few snow showers across the region, with little to no accumulation. As we move into Saturday night, the infamous arctic air will move through, which will help ignite lake effect snow. Earlier in the week, winds looked to be fluctuating between 270 and 300, this is why predicting lake effect snow far in advance is so difficult, any shift in the winds will change the forecast. With the latest 12Z models, winds seem to dip to 290 (NW flow) for a short time before setting up around 270 late Saturday night. What does that mean? The Mohawk Valley will see a quick burst of snow Saturday night before the winds shift and park itself across the North Country for Saturday night into Sunday.

Sunday

The lake effect band seems to get its act together across Northern Oneida/Northern Herkimer/Lewis Counties during the night on Saturday and early hours of Sunday. The instability becomes extreme with CAPE values near 800, so don't be alarmed if you hear any thunder with the snow:). Lake bands may intensify and snow may fall heavy at times. As of right now, I do not feel comfortable putting out exact numbers for accumulations, but for the North Country, expect significant snowfall amounts before this is all said and done on Monday. More than 6"? Likely. A foot? A possibility. For the rest of the viewing area, Sunday morning will be quiet, with a few snow showers. As of right now, its still up in the air if the winds will be able to shift to the northwest to impact Southern Oneida County.
So for those snow lovers in the North Country, you will probably get your wish, for the rest of the viewing area, dont kill the messenger:)

The other major story will be the temperatures. After the front moves through, temperatures will drop significantly. With 850 temperatures around -20, we will be lucky to reach the low teens. Factor in the wind of 10-15mph, we are talking about wind chills 0 to 10 below zero for the day on Sunday. Sunday night, temperatures will fall to near zero, making wind chills well below zero. Temperatures only moderate to the low 20s by midweek before crashing yet again on Thursday.

All in all, the next 48 hours are going to be busy. Tomorrow Matt or I will pinpoint snowfall amounts and the details on the lake effect snow. Buddle up

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Comments

Gina ( Trenton Falls):

Jill, sorry that you planned your vacation a week to early, but welcome back to the lovely upstate NY....no one in the country can say we are wimps here...not many places in the US or the world can go from the 70's to below zero and love it!!!

Hopefully the winds will shift just a little...so here in Trenton Falls we too can be shoveling a foot...

To all, slow down on the roads...we know everyone with a sled will be flying up route 12 to get to the snow....bundle up and lets all have a safe weekend!

Posted January 18th at 9:39 PM
Lisa:

Another storm bites the dust for the utica area! (thank god)..i feel for those up north :)

Posted January 18th at 9:57 PM
Jill Reale:

For those Giants fans out there: Game time temperature:0 .......Wind Chill: -20º

Posted January 18th at 10:12 PM
Jan:

Glad I'm watching it on TV!!

Jill, I know it is probably too soon, but any insight into the weather next weekend? We have to go to SW PA for a family surgery. Thanks

Posted January 18th at 10:17 PM
jon:

jill is there any chance that utica south of the thruway can get hefty snows or it is a given that we wont?

Posted January 18th at 10:18 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Jill thanks for the new post!Is your inhouse computer model seeing the same 270 flow?

Posted January 18th at 10:23 PM
Jill Reale:

Jan: As of right now, things quiet down towards the end of the week, but it is still a week away, so things may change.

Jon: As of right now, probably not; the winds dont seem to shift to the northwest

Posted January 18th at 10:24 PM
randy Vitullo:

To LISA: Lake effect snow is not a storm..........it is lake effect snow. So it is not a storm that has eaten the dust. Besides, if the wind switches by 10 or 15 degrees Utica can still get hammered...........

Posted January 18th at 10:26 PM
Justin (Whitesboro):

something is wrong with the extended forecast.

Posted January 18th at 10:48 PM
matt(marcy):

yea and i hope that marcy gets a good sno fall b/c i always make a huge snofort every year about this time so crank that snow to heavy put it over me and bring it on

Posted January 18th at 11:17 PM
Matt(Marcy):

wow what happened to the significant accu up north now its 3-5 and here its 1-3

Posted January 18th at 11:20 PM
matt(HP):

Matt are you sure thats not the snowfall map for the other day.

Posted January 18th at 11:44 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Just seen an update from Matt. He said to rembember last February when the models continually had the bullseye for snow right overhead of Montague, but the band moved further north and slammed Watertown before shifting south abruptly and settling over Oswego county. Basically the models have pegged Montague as bullseye several times before when actually the band set up just a LITTLE further south. Montague got screwed on that deal.

Posted January 19th at 12:06 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

One of the most memorable "good busts" for us down here in the valley was 3/15/2006. What was forecast by all weather outlets to be a very light snow (1-2"), turned out to be a widespread 10-15" inch storm for most of the Mohawk Valley. The lake band I believe was supposed to shift south or north through the area only depositing an inch or two. When 7:30 came that morning, snow began falling and increased into a VERY heavy snow within 5 minutes (snowfall rates 1-2" per hour). Buses were out on the roads, roads became heavilly covered, and travel was next to impossible because of the blinding snowfall rates and numerous accidents up my way, many of which were teachers heading to school. I guess the band slowed down and just about stalled right over the valley most the day and gave everyone quite a surprise. Just goes to show you that lake effect always has a trick or two up it's sleeve.

Posted January 19th at 12:24 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah lots of things still up in the air Michael.The NAM has been solid though crushing the area from Pulaski to Osceola.Model output would toss 3-6' that way.There still seems to be a disturbance that would shift the winds down this way come late Sunday.This would also crank the snows at the same time.If we don't get hit...we don't have far to go.

Posted January 19th at 12:24 AM
Anthony:

Rob, I am in agreement with you there is still a disturbance that brings band into C. Oneida county and seems to stay put from Sunday night into Monday. Remeber LES is its own creature........

Posted January 19th at 12:33 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

I know all about it Anthony but I'm still trying to learn more.500-850mb streamlines would favor a 290 flow for a 12hr period down this way.QPF to me doesn't match that alighnment.I'm a little suspicious.

Posted January 19th at 12:41 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

I also wanted to question the inhouse model at 11pm.It seemed to show a more WNW flow.I know this is an outliar,but we did get one good response from it earlier this season.

Posted January 19th at 1:01 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Rob, I would have to say I am too. If you were to get a 290 flow for a 12 hour period, you can bet on some significant accumulation towards the valley. I would shift that band south AT LEAST 10 miles or more. And then if you get a distubance or short wave that moves through, that not only will shift the flow, but also cause some Lake ENHANCED snow with a good amount of lift leading to a burst of heavy snow as it moves through. I would think everyone outside of the main band has a shot at 2-4" inches at least through Monday.

Posted January 19th at 1:10 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Rob if they use the "in house" model when showing skycast on the news, I also questioned that as there was clearly more of a WNW wind direction as the bands were aligned straight through all of Oneida and Southern Herkimer counties. And if I recall, I thought that model was good with lake effect? Well, we will know our fate for sure in about 12-18 hours.

Posted January 19th at 1:26 AM
Lisa:

Ya I know Randy- i was just saying that, it seems like Utica has been the hit or miss location.. We will see what happens..MOther Nature can surely change..But thank you for clarifying-altho lake effect can bring lots of white stuff..hehe

I am the one who Line #13 was intended for- I am really amazed that an innocent little comment like "I feel for those up NOrth" would cause that immaturity.. AH well.. I guess for those of you with snowmobiles, or go skiing-Knock yourselves out and have a fabulous time!! Get out and Enjoy!!!

Posted January 19th at 7:18 AM
Lisa:

Hey Matt- Did you go to school in HP?

Posted January 19th at 7:20 AM
James (Sauquoit):

Lisa: Agreed that everyone is entitled to their own opinion, however #13 was highly inappropriate. I still have a little hope that we may see some significant snowfall. One thing is for sure its gonna be freezing cold.
Jill: Keep up the good work, enjoyed your input.

Posted January 19th at 7:26 AM
Matt Lanza:

Morning gang. Cleaned up the mess and have a ban in progress.

As for the weather. I'm putting together a map, and I will subsequently put together a new entry I think. This will be a big time LES event for folks up north. In house model is showing 18" for Oswego by 7 PM Sunday. I'm going with 16-24" on the Tug Hill and in Oswego County through Sunday evening, with the potential for 12-18" more after that. 8-16" for the majority of the North Country in Lewis and Oneida Counties. 3-8" for Old Forge (although higher amounts are likely in some areas). Also 3-8" for Oneida County north of the Thruway. There will be a very, very sharp cutoff somewhere, so someone may get hosed, but I think generally everyone south of the Thruway sees a Trace to 2", with isolated 2-3" totals possible. Map coming soon.

Posted January 19th at 7:27 AM
Brad (Oneonta):

That is funny that Mike from binghamton made a map a couple days agao calling for 6-15 inches or more down here....HAHA...and accumulations out in Vermont from this. That is why you dont speculate too early I guess. Thanks Matt for not confirming that.

Posted January 19th at 7:47 AM
Matt Lanza:

Snowfall forecast.

Posted January 19th at 7:57 AM
randy Vitullo:

Very nice map Matt. However, I can only see it for one second before it disappears from the screen. Maybe it is because I have a Mac????? Is anyone else having a problem with the map?

Posted January 19th at 8:12 AM
Matt Lanza:

Randy: Might be a potential script for an "I'm a Mac and I'm a PC" commercial :) No issues on any of our PCs here in the office.

Posted January 19th at 8:14 AM
randy Vitullo:

Thanks Matt. Great idea for the commercial. I will apply.......

Posted January 19th at 8:43 AM
Matt Lanza:

New entry is up to focus entirely on the lake snows.

Posted January 19th at 8:45 AM
Dan:

I hope we get tons of snow down here in the valley just bring it right over the valley and bring it on!!!!!!!!!

Posted January 19th at 10:51 AM
Dan (Herkimer):

Southern Herkimer County needs lots of snow!!!!!

Posted January 19th at 10:56 AM
Dan (Herkimer):

I hope there is a snow day tuesday!!!!

Posted January 19th at 10:58 AM
Dan (Herkimer):

Matt do you think we will get hit in herkimer hard?

Posted January 19th at 11:01 AM

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