Wild Wednesday Ahead...

Posted January 29th, 2008 by Matt Lanza. 104 comments

We'll be seeing some significant changes to our weather over the next 3-5 days. You saw most of my thoughts in the comments section of the last entry. Let me take this a little further, by subject....

Temperatures Tonight

As of this writing, temps have jumped to 35-40 south and west of Utica. Northeast of Utica (Old Forge, Poland, etc.), temperatures are about 34-38. In the Mohawk Valley, we're seeing those numbers still below 32 degrees. Primarily east of Herkimer. As the night continues, temperatures should continue to slowly rise. I predict officially that we'll hit low 40s later tonight (34 right now). The central and eastern Mohawk Valley may not see much above 35 though.

Rain

Showers will occur tonight between now and probably Midnight or so. Looking at our Doppler radar, the coverage continues to increase and has steadily come up since our 5-6 PM newscasts. So expect rain drops soon. While I don't think the threat of freezing rain is really a concern east of Utica, I wouldn't rule it out entirely in a few isolated spots. Basically, just take it easy driving tonight if you encounter rain.

Showers will parlay into a steadier rain overnight. A rumble of thunder is possible as that rain moves through. Then, we'll catch a break, before the actual cold front brings a brief shot of heavy rain and maybe some thunder.

Wind

Winds will steadily increase tonight. You'll notice this most if you live on a hilltop. Winds at Rome have shifted into the SSE now, and this should allow for strong southerly winds to move in later on. Winds should be sustained at 10-20 by Midnight and 15-30 by daybreak. Gusts of 20-40 mph are likely by daybreak as well.

With the actual cold front and squall line of storms, we'll see the potential for significant winds, especially on hilltops north of US Route 20. Winds could gusts as high as 50-60 mph for a time between about 6 and 9 AM tomorrow morning. This kind of wind, combined with rain, will allow the potential for trees and power lines to tumble. Be extra cautious if you'll be out tomorrow morning.

Wind will stay up all day tomorrow, with gusts of 20-50 mph likely pretty much straight through until evening. High Wind Warnings have been posted for Oneida, Herkimer, Madison, Lewis, Fulton, Montgomery and Hamilton Counties. A Wind Advisory (for strong, but not so much damaging winds) is in effect for the rest of the area.

Temperatures Wednesday: Flash Freeze?

Temperatures will begin the day in the low 40s. But, as evidenced by the map in this blog, there is a SHARP drop in temperatures behind the cold front. We've seen temperatures 20-60 degrees colder in the Midwest than they were 24 hours ago. We aren't going to see a 60 degrees temperature drop tomorrow, but, 20 degrees is possible. We'll start in the 40s, fall through the 30s and into the 20s by early afternoon. As a result, a flash freeze is possible tomorrow...where any water on the roads freezes over very fast. This would be of most concern between 9 AM and 1 PM.

Temperatures will bottom out in the upper single digits to low teens tomorrow evening, with wind chills slightly below zero.

Snow as Temperatures Drop?

Lake snows will develop tomorrow afternoon off the northeast end of Lake Ontario, mostly up toward Watertown and the northern Tug Hill. Winds are from the WSW aloft, keeping lake snows well north. Winds will try to come back into the west tomorrow evening. This will push lake snows into southern Lewis, northern Oneida and northern Herkimer Counties. But, those lake snows will quickly weaken tomorrow night as warm air begins rushing back in.

Rain may end as some wet snow tomorrow morning, but it will be on the very tail end of the precipitation, so accumulation isn't a concern.

Friday Storm

We're still seeing the models all over the place regarding this storm. But, the main models are coming to a consensus that the storm track will be over us or just south and east of Utica. The question (much like we saw in December) becomes about whether we see a coastal storm develop as the primary storm lifts northeast up the Appalachians. Should this happen, we have a couple concerns. First, you'll see colder air move in here, and we'd have a snow/sleet to sleet/freezing rain to sleet/snow scenario. Second, the dreaded dry slot would have to watched again, and I'm seeing the first evidence of this on today's GFS. We'll see what happens, but right now the main concern with Friday's storm is ice, followed by snow/sleet. Stay tuned.

More Coming?

Next week, as you may have read in the comments section of the prior entry, does look warmer. Temperatures should push into the 40s as a significant storm develops in the Midwest, potentially just in time for Super Tuesday. Precipitation type isn't a concern right now for us, as this is a solid western track storm, which would bring us rain. But this bears watching as well, as today's GFS really wound the storm up. We'll see.

It's busy here in the Weather Center...buckle up!

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Comments

  1. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt, im still at 33.3 degrees here. im guessing it due to having snow covered woods to my SE?

    Posted January 29th at 8:39 PM

  2. Wayne(Marcy):

    Still sitting at 32 here, hasn't moved in quite a while.

    Posted January 29th at 8:42 PM

  3. Tony CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

    33 degrees here also and some freezing rain in patches. Gonna be a bumpy next couple of days :-)

    Posted January 29th at 9:14 PM

  4. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Still below freezing here. Temperature at my location is 28.6 and at my other location a mile away is 29.8 my weatherbug for Herkimer is saying 30 degrees. I'm a little worried that these temperatures may not rise all that much. Use caution tonight driving, especially northeast of Utica!

    Posted January 29th at 9:17 PM

  5. Matt Lanza:

    Rome continues a slow rise... 35 now. Still a little leery about some of the rain moving in now. We'll see. Teddy: I responded to your post in the last entry.

    Posted January 29th at 9:26 PM

  6. Matt(Marcy):

    Matt what is the lowest temperature in the lower 48 states right now because i'm sure it's well below zero

    Posted January 29th at 9:54 PM

  7. mike m (binghamton):

    matt, many places in minnesota are in the teens below zero, with wind chills of 30 or 40 below!!!

    Posted January 29th at 9:58 PM

  8. Matt Lanza:

    Freezing Rain Advisories issued in Hamilton and N Fulton...out of our viewing area mostly, but worth mentioning. Slow temp rise continues. Matt, I'm not sure what the coldest temp is to be honest.

    Posted January 29th at 10:01 PM

  9. Rob(whitesboro):

    It's about 32 degrees here with freezing rain.There's a good coating on the car but it's not solid.Matt(Marcy)I was just going through some weather stations in The Dakotas and found a -28 in Crosby ND.

    Posted January 29th at 10:07 PM

  10. Matt Lanza:

    Looking for any reports of freezing rain or problems. Passing the info on to NWS Binghamton.

    Posted January 29th at 10:11 PM

  11. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    28.6 degrees here with moderate to heavy freezing rain. It's a little tough to walk outside right now, but main roads should be okay as DOT just went by salting. Secondary streets and roads are going to be icey.

    Posted January 29th at 10:11 PM

  12. Laura (Paris Hill):

    Much like this morning just plain rain up here. Sitting at 39.9 at 10:05 PM. Winds are gusting 20-25 MPH at times.

    Posted January 29th at 10:14 PM

  13. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Nothing down here sitting at 34 degrees last I checked from work. I see new model runs coming down anything new? Are they still trending slowly east?

    Posted January 29th at 10:17 PM

  14. Cindy:

    Matt, I was just wondering what the winds will be like in the morning around the time kids are getting on buses and walking to school? Thanks

    Posted January 29th at 10:21 PM

  15. Matt Lanza:

    Latest NAM is in line with the other models tracking right over us. It also seems to advocate a squall line coming through Friday evening. A bizzare series of storms this week.

    Posted January 29th at 10:22 PM

  16. Matt Lanza:

    Cindy: Strong... 20-40 mph gusts. I can't promise the strongest winds won't be occurring then, but I think they'll be an hour or two later.

    Posted January 29th at 10:23 PM

  17. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Herkimer and Montgomerey Counties are also under a freezing rain advisory until 4am. Side streets have a little ice/slush accretion on them but nothing too bad yet. Just USE CAUTION ON SECONDARY ROADS!!!

    Posted January 29th at 10:28 PM

  18. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Now dont yell I am new at this but I was looking at the loops on the wrf and does it really show a liquid QPF of over 2 inches on most the models??? And is that possibly sleet messing with the numbers?

    Posted January 29th at 10:30 PM

  19. Matt Lanza:

    Michael: Partially because of your report, they issued those. I passed that on to them.

    Jeff: Sleet won't mess with numbers on the models usually. That's only on radar estimates. So yes, we're looking at a high dose of precip, whatever it may be!

    Posted January 29th at 10:32 PM

  20. mike m(binghamton):

    matt, temp finally rising here with onset of rain, up to 35.4 now. 00z NAM not looking good for snow, as usual it looks like the ohio valley low will remain intact too long, before the trasfer to the more coastal low.

    Posted January 29th at 10:39 PM

  21. jessie (ilion):

    Well my weather bug says its dropped from 30 to 29 degrees in the last hour do you really think its going to get that warm out and the roads are nasty here my hubby just got home and he said the roads are nasty

    Posted January 29th at 10:40 PM

  22. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Those advisories are warranted! I just walked outside and that was quite a challenge to say the least. My street has some ice/slush on it and ice accretion is a little thicker than a piece of paper, but it is very slick out. Temp is at 28.9 degrees.

    Posted January 29th at 10:45 PM

  23. Betsi West Leyden:

    Matt... Your doing a great job keep up the great work,,Unbrella is out of the question for tommorow?

    Posted January 29th at 10:46 PM

  24. Rob(whitesboro):

    Looks like the squall line is approaching Cleveland right now.Widespread damage with winds gusting to 80mph as it moved through Indiana.

    Posted January 29th at 10:48 PM

  25. Matt Lanza:

    Well, my attention is totally off the Friday storm...we have an interesting situation shaping up. Temperatures in most of Chenango, Otsego, Madison and northern Oneida and northern Herkimer Counties are well above 32 degrees. But from about Whitesboro south and east down the Mohawk Valley, it's 29-33. The temps below freezing are allowing the rain to freeze on contact so on a line from Dolgeville to Utica back east to Canajoharie is the main area of concern right now. Again, amounts will be light, but the precipitation may be a problem. Use caution through later tonight. We will move above freezing...it's just a question of when.

    Posted January 29th at 10:51 PM

  26. mike m ( binghamton):

    well ne ways the ooz gfs is showing almost no snow with the storm now, tracking it too far west, at least through 54 hrs.

    Posted January 29th at 10:57 PM

  27. Best~West Leyden:

    My friend in Indiana says the Temps dropped so fast winds are bad and now its snowing,

    Posted January 29th at 11:03 PM

  28. Cindy (ilion):

    Well, I've got 32.9 degrees here as of 11:00, finally above that freezing mark.

    Posted January 29th at 11:10 PM

  29. Matt Lanza:

    Up to 32.3 here on Smith Hill, but we're plain rain.

    Posted January 29th at 11:21 PM

  30. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    29.5 degrees here with freezing rain continuing. Main roads are also getting iced up. State DOT just went through scraping the road and blasting it with salt. I would guess temperatures here should be above freezing by 1 or 2a.m.

    Posted January 29th at 11:22 PM

  31. Matt Lanza:

    Michael: Please keep posting updates as late as you can. I have NWS Albany checking the blog periodically for updates. Thank you for keeping us posted.

    Posted January 29th at 11:29 PM

  32. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    No problem Matt, I should be up until 2am unless it gets worse in which case i'll stay up later. Just went outside again, and it is impossible to stand up where I put salt/sand down this afternoon. Estimated ice accretion is around 0.10" inch with moderate freezing rain falling at 29.1 degrees.

    Posted January 29th at 11:43 PM

  33. Rob(whitesboro):

    Still 32 here with freezing rain.My road is just wet but there is ice accumalation on my car and also small icicles hanging from the siding.

    Posted January 29th at 11:46 PM

  34. Mike (Little Falls):

    About a tenth of an inch of ice on sidewalks...very slippery...I fell when walking to the store...Roads seem decent except the sides of roads....those are a slippery like the sidewalks...use caution when driving through the early morning hours...

    Posted January 29th at 11:57 PM

  35. Rob(whitesboro):

    Mike M the Canadian came in SE of us again.Seems to be an outliar but it keeps us alive in the snow dept.Watching the squall line racing NE and intensifying.

    Posted January 30th at 12:14 AM

  36. Stacy ( Stratford- N Fulton County):

    My road is not a main road by no means, but it is one solid sheet of ice. (and yes its paved) Plow crews have been making several passes up through here this evening. My guess would be the main road rt29A would also be complete ice from here to aleast Caroga Lake. Will try to keep you posted.

    Posted January 30th at 12:22 AM

  37. Matt Lanza:

    Thanks for the updates all. Keep us posted when you can. Wind reports tomorrow and damage reports would be great. Submit any photos via YouNews TV on wktv.com. Should be an interesting day!

    Posted January 30th at 1:21 AM

  38. Rob(whitesboro):

    Just some freezing drizzle now.Still at 32 degrees.No severe reports with the squall line since midnight.Looks to have weakened.

    Posted January 30th at 1:33 AM

  39. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    I'm at 30 degrees here and VERY slowly climbing with moderate freezing rain. Herkimer is at 32 degrees. Estimated ice accretion is between 0.15" and 0.20" inch. Roads, trees, and powelines are all ice covered. This would not be good if we get wind in this with ice still on trees. Rt29 and 167 are both icy and slushy as DOT crews haven't been through in at least an hour now.

    Posted January 30th at 1:42 AM

  40. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    32.2 degrees here. Last update for the night. Roads remain very icy and slushy, especially the town roads. DOT just made a pass up through with the plow. Village DPW has one salt truck out working the streets. Travel will remain treacherous for the next 2-4 hours in places. I gave up on trying to walk outside as the only way to stand up is with ice grippers on your boots. Trees are also coated with a nice glaze of ice.

    Posted January 30th at 2:34 AM

  41. Gary (Schuyler) at work in Syracuse:

    I believe I hit the front coming into Syracuse around 6:45. What little snow they had on the ground is completely gone this morning with temps in the 40s and with the rain to help wash it away.

    Posted January 30th at 7:00 AM

  42. mike m ( binghamton):

    Rob, yea i saw the CMC but like you said it is deffinetly an outlier.

    Posted January 30th at 7:23 AM

  43. Brad (Oneonta):

    No probs in O-town. Solid 38 and raining.

    Posted January 30th at 7:26 AM

  44. Linnette in Waterville:

    8:05 am-36 degrees- moderate rain and thunder. What a weird winter.

    Posted January 30th at 8:08 AM

  45. Tommy Boy from Fayetteville:

    Currently snowing hard here. So much for the weather guessers now casts.

    Posted January 30th at 8:08 AM

  46. Jules (Ilion):

    light rain and 37 degrees at 8:17am

    Posted January 30th at 8:18 AM

  47. Betsi~West Leyden:

    Temps 34* WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.. wind bad.....PLEASE USE CAUTION ON ROADS!! LOTS OF THUNDER AND LIGHTING

    Posted January 30th at 8:26 AM

  48. Cindy (ilion):

    Well, it is thundering here with plenty of rain. I'm heading out the door to pick up anything in the yard that might get blown away later.

    Posted January 30th at 8:28 AM

  49. Rob(whitesboro):

    Thundersnow here.Winds weren't to bad with the squall line.Maybe 35-40mph.Winds gusted to 60 -70 mph out in WNY with the front.

    Posted January 30th at 8:30 AM

  50. Dave from work in Clinton:

    Wow - The sky turned black, light rain turned to a very short period of heavy rain, a bolt of lightning and now white out conditions.

    Posted January 30th at 8:31 AM

  51. Karen ~Westmoreland:

    Just had some very loud thunder and it is also snowing and getting very windy here in Westmoreland...

    Posted January 30th at 8:33 AM

  52. Scott (New Hartford):

    High wind and almost white out conditions on Middle Settlement Rd. What happened to rain turning over to snow. Looks pretty bad out there!

    Posted January 30th at 8:34 AM

  53. Jim in North Utica:

    Heavy sideways sleet here in North Utica, can't even see the house across the street. Just in time to load up my son for school.

    Posted January 30th at 8:43 AM

  54. Andy Forestport:

    Snowing here now

    Posted January 30th at 8:47 AM

  55. Rob(whitesboro):

    It's pretty close to a whiteout here.Heavy snow and high winds with a visability less than 1/4 mile.

    Posted January 30th at 8:51 AM

  56. Denys at work in New Hartford:

    White out conditions here too. I am on Genesee street in NH, it's all white and traffic is very slow. Snowing in "sheets" sideways. Pretty awesome to see actually!

    Posted January 30th at 8:52 AM

  57. Brian (rome):

    Good one Tommy Boy. Heavy snow fall since 8:15 am. Earlier than expected. Roads are covered.

    Posted January 30th at 8:52 AM

  58. Linnette in Waterville:

    Sleet changed to snow here about 15 minutes ago-road is already covered. Still snowing moderately-very small flakes but coming down pretty good.

    Posted January 30th at 8:58 AM

  59. Andy Forestport:

    I wish it snowed like this for a couple days...

    Posted January 30th at 9:06 AM

  60. Andrea (Utica):

    Just when i thought us snow lovers were cursed, the sky opens up and its a white out! Maybe theres hope yet! Let 'er rip!

    Posted January 30th at 9:07 AM

  61. Sarah:

    Snowing hard and very windy here in HP...yuck! The roads are snow covered and at times it's hard to see with the wind gusts. Use caution!

    Posted January 30th at 9:08 AM

  62. Mel (Westernville):

    An inch of new snow here - temp dropped from 36 to 28 in less than an hour between 7:00 and 8:00.

    Posted January 30th at 9:14 AM

  63. Holly:

    Downtown Utica at work, extremely windy and snowing like **&^........love it!!!!!

    Posted January 30th at 9:15 AM

  64. Cindy (ilion):

    Starting to feel the wind now, and it is snowing, but very light.

    Posted January 30th at 9:22 AM

  65. Heather (german flatts):

    getting quite nasty out there winds blowing and its snowing and raining traffic on thruway a bit slower along with 5s very slushy travel carefully if traveling either

    Posted January 30th at 9:32 AM

  66. Rob(whitesboro):

    Snow has tappered to flurries here.Picked up an inch of snow.Big problems out on Buffalo as a heavy lake band has set up over the city with winds gusting close to 70mph.Strong SW winds also creating some flooding in the city.

    Posted January 30th at 9:33 AM

  67. Bests~West Leyden:

    SNOWFLAKES ~ SIZE OF QUARTERS ,,WINDS still a HOWLING,,Temps DROPPING fast 29*,WHITE OUT CONDITIONS PLEASE USE CAUTION ON ROADS,BETTER YET STAY PUT IF POSSIABLE,(Hopefully our kids will make it home from school soon!)2 inches snow has fallen already,,Just enough to make the roads a mess,,WHAT KIND OF WEATHER WOULD U CALL IT BESIDES ,,,,UNREAL ?

    Posted January 30th at 9:36 AM

  68. Matt Lanza:

    Well, even when you see it coming and know it's going to be impressive, it still has some tricks. Snow should end across the area shortly, so residual travel problems will be cleared up. SW winds are pounding Buffalo. That's good news for us, as lake snows will stay well north of the area for most of the afternoon. Today's not the day you want snow. Wind is going to continue whipping that snow around though, so be careful.

    Posted January 30th at 9:59 AM

  69. Bets~West Leyden:

    SNOW HAS STOPPED! SCHOOOLS ARE LETTING STUDENTS GO AT 10;30,,,,WINDS STILL PRETTY INTENSE,,DOWN TO 26*dropped 3 degrees in 21 minutes

    Posted January 30th at 10:01 AM

  70. Bob Jones:

    Betsi,Stop yelling at ME!

    Posted January 30th at 10:15 AM

  71. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Wow what a difference from North to South. We currently have a trace of snow this morning and the wind is non existant. Its almost calm at this time. I think the peak gust was only near 20mph. Temperature dropped like a rock this morning though and we went from 38 to 30 in about 10 minutes.

    Posted January 30th at 10:15 AM

  72. Lisa:

    That was some nasty brief weather in the Utica area this morning.!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Posted January 30th at 10:58 AM

  73. Rick (Yorkville):

    Hey Matt, what are the chances for a snow day Friday??? Looks messy...will this storm be at the right time?

    Posted January 30th at 11:40 AM

  74. Matt Lanza:

    Rick: After again looking at the latest data, I have less concern for a snow day than I do an ice day, but anything is possible. I'll be looking things over this afternoon and we'll shift attention to that tonight.

    Posted January 30th at 11:44 AM

  75. SB (Richfield Springs):

    Still snowing like crazy in Richfield.

    Posted January 30th at 11:53 AM

  76. Sandy:

    Has anyone heard that the power is out in East Utica? Does anyone have anymore details?

    Posted January 30th at 12:44 PM

  77. Ken (S.Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

    Sandy heard on the scanner a while ago that there is a accidnet or something in the welsh bush rd area....they stated poles and wires down and burning as well, im sure thats probably the reason

    Posted January 30th at 12:53 PM

  78. Sandy:

    Thanks Ken, I appreciate the info.

    Posted January 30th at 1:04 PM

  79. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    30,805 people without power in Erie County in western New York. Also Route 170 is closed in the Town of Fairfield I believe due to zero visibility. Between exits 46 and 49 on the Thruway, expect delays due to several multiple vehicle accidents. Roads appear to be fine in town, but the back roads are probably a total mess. They were about two hours ago, with heavy slush and ice buildup. I don't know if they have cleaned them up yet but the blowing and drifting snow will keep them snow covered.

    Posted January 30th at 1:45 PM

  80. Rob(whitesboro):

    Had a few good wind gusts here but nothing too bad.Seems like the highest winds stayed out in WNY.It'll be interesting to see what NWS does this afternoon for headlines.I would guess Winter Storm Watches will be issued from here and points north and west for Friday.Looks like a big mess.

    Posted January 30th at 1:50 PM

  81. Matt Lanza:

    Thruway is now closed in the Buffalo area (btw 46 and 49) because of blowing snow.

    Regarding Friday, just getting down to business here, but our Microcast in-house model is going snow/sleet to freezing rain to rain. Should this verify, we'd have advisory type problems in the morning, but just rain in the afternoon. More coming in a bit.

    Posted January 30th at 3:03 PM

  82. Jeff:

    Winterstorm Watches posted

    Posted January 30th at 3:04 PM

  83. Matt Lanza:

    And just as I say that, NWS Binghamton has pulled the trigger on Winter Storm Watches for Friday.

    Posted January 30th at 3:05 PM

  84. Jeff:

    Matt,
    NWS posted the above statement on their website

    Posted January 30th at 3:07 PM

  85. Dan Seymore:

    Here at SUNY Oswego. Sustained winds of 47 mph. Our strongest wind gust of 65 mph at 8:50 am.

    Posted January 30th at 3:18 PM

  86. SteveH (Tully):

    Yeah I was just watching this footage of Oswego. Those are some waves!
    http://www.9wsyr.com/?articleID=212616

    Posted January 30th at 3:36 PM

  87. Rob(whitesboro):

    Looks like a full blown blizzard on the Tug.There was a 81mph report in Lockport earlier.

    Posted January 30th at 4:09 PM

  88. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    I just heard of a 25-car pileup on I-81. Seems kinda similar to the much bigger I-4 accident a few weeks ago.

    As for Friday, I would hope that schools cancel classes. Most kids are feeling ripped as most schools are lucky to have had 1 snowday. They really don't want time off in the spring to do yardwork.

    I also expect lots of FR, and Sleet.

    Posted January 30th at 4:16 PM

  89. Matt Lanza:

    I've put up an initial call on the Friday storm. Click here to view it. I can't get into amounts this soon, but assuming there is sleet and ice contamination, this will likely not exceed 6" in most spots. My window for the most problems is from 5 AM to Noon on Friday. More later.

    Posted January 30th at 4:31 PM

  90. BR(Whitesboro):

    This is for anyone who can answer this. I am leaving friday to go to vermont for the weekend to ski. I realize that friday will be slow traveling wise. I will be in Ludlow Vermont elevation 1200 feet. My question is will Ludlow receive mostly snow or sleet or freezing rain? I dont know how elevation will play with this storm because of the upper layer of warmth. Thanks

    Posted January 30th at 5:09 PM

  91. Matt Lanza:

    BR: They're basically in the same boat that we are. It's going to be a close call for them as to whether it's snow and sleet and then freezing rain or just snow to sleet. I doubt they see too much rain, but they will be very very close in this scenario.

    Posted January 30th at 5:21 PM

  92. Becky (West Leyden):

    The winds are currently 28 mph from the W. gusting as high as 38 mph. Todays highest gust was 54 mph at 8: 55 AM. The road conditions are very treacherous, with hard packed snow and blowing snow causing whiteouts.

    Posted January 30th at 5:22 PM

  93. BR(Whitesboro):

    Thanks matt. So u dont think Ludlow will see plain rain?

    Posted January 30th at 5:24 PM

  94. Matt Lanza:

    Thanks, Becky, I'll be sure to pass that on.

    BR: I doubt they'll see plain rain, but they are borderline snow/sleet and ice. They could see some plain rain, but right now I'd leave it out.

    Posted January 30th at 5:26 PM

  95. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Winter Storm Watches also posted For Herkimer, Fulton, Montgomery, and Hamilton counties. Thruway is a mess west of Rochester with either Severe snow/ice conditions or closed sections. Watertown area is very bad as well.

    Posted January 30th at 5:40 PM

  96. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Matt, I can't bring your link up in post 89. All I get is a snowfall map that says no significant accumulation expected. Maybe this is something on my side?

    Posted January 30th at 5:50 PM

  97. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Sorry about that Matt. I hit the refresh button and it came up.

    Posted January 30th at 5:53 PM

  98. mike m ( binghamton):

    gfs is trying to keep CNY in the snow(below 0 degrees @ 850 mb level) longer on the front end of the storm now, giving CNY between .5 and .75 inches of QPF of what appears to be snow, then it would be a close call with the 0 degree line just west of utica and binghamton. so if this could shift SE about 60 miles we may still have a shot at mainly snow.

    Posted January 30th at 8:00 PM

  99. mike m ( binghamton):

    on a side note the sky is prbably the clearest i can remember seeing it...i mean the stars are very bright for some reason?

    Posted January 30th at 8:07 PM

  100. Matt Lanza:

    Mike: Be very careful with that. The warm layer isn't at 850 mb...it's actually a little above that, closer to 800 or 750 mb...and it's extremely broad, so it's going to take a heck of a shift for this to be mainly snow anywhere. I'm very doubtful that anyone has more than 50% snow on Friday. There will be a lot of sleet and potentially quite a bit of freezing rain too.

    Posted January 30th at 8:11 PM

  101. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt, yea i figured that, its always been that warm layer around 750mb this year that keeps giving us sleet. is there a model on Penn state ewall, or elsewhere that shows 700-750 mb temps?

    Posted January 30th at 8:27 PM

  102. Matt Lanza:

    New entry up.

    Mike: Not really, you would need to look at actual model soundings. I posted some maps in the new entry from this site.

    Posted January 30th at 8:32 PM

  103. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt, pretty sweet website, thanks!!!

    Posted January 30th at 8:58 PM

  104. Kurt (Cooperstown/Miami):

    Got a good shot of the white stuff in Coop, as well, on Wed AM and early PM. Looked like at least a couple inches to me. (It was mostly nice powder...but also still a bucnh of slush sitting on the pavement.) But, overall, I loved it...I wish it would do that every day!

    Posted January 31st at 3:56 AM

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