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Summer officially rolled in here at 7:59 PM this evening. It was ushered in by one of the better scenes I've witnessed from atop Smith Hill since I first came here, part of which is seen in the image. Good view of a small hail producing storm in southern Herkimer County.

Now on to the weekend. With the upper low that's been plaguing us out of the picture, the attention focuses on the next system. First, Saturday will be our "break" day...sun and clouds. Temps will be closer to our average of 77 for a high. My thinking is that a few valley locations could touch on 80 with enough sunshine. Thunderstorms will be able to develop tomorrow afternoon, but they are going to need some sort of forcing. That will either come via lake breezes off Erie/Ontario, or by way of some hilltop/mountain breezes generating updrafts. So odds favor the Adirondacks, Southern Valleys and western New York tomorrow..not so much the Mohawk Valley.

Then on Sunday, things get quite interesting. I have noticed a trend for Sunday today on the models that means things could be interesting. First of all, we're going to be loaded with moisture. The setup? We have another disturbance aloft, slightly different than our last system, in that it's more progressive and is more of a sharp trough, rather than a cut-off low. That will be diving in from the west. Add to it a pretty strong southwest flow aloft, with some sort of Gulf connection, so we have a somewhat tropical air mass over us. The question now becomes, what happens?

My thinking is that we'll have partly cloudy skies to start the morning. Quickly, clouds will billow up, making us mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms will develop. They will become widespread, especially east of Utica. Heavy rain is almost a guarantee with any thunderstorm Sunday. If we see any training of thunderstorms (storms crossing over the same areas multiple times), especially south of Route 20 (areas that have seen the most storms of late), we might have some localized flooding issues. Additionally, a line of storms is possible later in the day as a cold front slides through.

Now, are we talking gully-washer thunderstorms? Or severe storms? There is a pretty good wind profile Sunday for storms. I could see the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, with strong winds and large hail. Is it a widespread threat? Not at this time. Who is most likely to see severe weather? Any areas that see pretty modest amounts of AM sunshine. You don't want sun on Sunday this weekend. Even with ample sun, I don't think we'll see anything on the scale of this past Monday or last Tuesday. But, that risk is there, so if you have any outdoor plans, you need to be aware of this.

Things slowly clear out after a few more weak disturbances pivot through Monday and Tuesday. There are signs of a warm frontal passage Thursday into Friday, but whether that means more storms and a decent warm up remains to be seen.

Either way, we have certainly entered into a more active pattern here in the Northeast. It's become increasingly difficult to include a truly dry day in the forecast lately, because something could pop up almost at any time. This would fall in line with our "wetter than normal" thoughts earlier in the spring. We'll see.

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Comments

Matt Lanza:

Of very important note... it has been confirmed that ice is in fact present on Mars. This will likely be a major development in the continuation of exploration of the planet.

Posted June 20th at 11:16 PM
Ken - South Utica:

looks like we are well within the 15% zone for severe weather tomorrow, nice pocket of 30% to our south as well....hopefully today holds and we get one nice day this weekend.

Posted June 21st at 7:12 AM
severe weather sucks:

Great.....more severe weather.....

Posted June 21st at 7:25 AM
Ken - South Utica:

I love it, we complain about severe weathe and how hot and muggy it is, in three months we complain how the weather is turning and getting colder, then we complain because it rains to much, then its too cold and we hate snow.....why not just enjoy what mother nature throws at you, look at the beauty of it, yes weather can cause alot of problems and headaches, however theres nothing we can do to change it, just be aware of it and enjoy.

Posted June 21st at 9:08 AM
Matt Lanza:

Ken: And it could be a lot worse than we have it here!

As an aside, SPC being quite aggressive tomorrow in their outlook..saying that even with substantial cloud cover, there is the potential for isolated severe storms. Going to be quite interesting to see how this unfolds...again.

Posted June 21st at 9:30 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Looks like their keeping the slight risk in WNY today.I thought they would of pushed it a little further east towards our area with the update.We have to watch that wave coming into Ontario this morning.Plenty of sunshine out ahead it.

Posted June 21st at 9:33 AM
severe weather still sucks:

Call it what ya want. It still bites.

Posted June 21st at 12:47 PM
hello:

well guys i see that the radar is showing some rain moving in i want to do a cook out does anyone know maybe when it might start raining here in the valley so i can try and work my cook out around the rain thanks

Posted June 21st at 3:50 PM
Bob Jones:

Jessie....the storm is heading straight for your house!!!!!!

Posted June 21st at 4:00 PM
kelly:

Grow up BOB JONES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted June 21st at 4:08 PM
Kelly:

Jessie, by the look of the radar you might have a couple of hours before anything moves through here. Just a guess....

Posted June 21st at 4:10 PM
hello:

thanks kelly

Posted June 21st at 4:12 PM
kelly:

Your welcome..

Posted June 21st at 4:13 PM
Bob Jones:

I'm not the one posting under the name "hello."

Posted June 21st at 5:04 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

On the lighter side, I see the SPC as of 5PM has us firmly in the slight risk for tomorrow and that were on the edge for the 30% range for strong if I'm reading it right.

Posted June 21st at 5:09 PM
Teri (deerfield):

Can anyone give us a breakdown on what is on the map now? Is this line going to hold up or start to dissipate? Am I too hopeful for some t'storms?

Posted June 21st at 5:18 PM
Matt (Utica):

Bob... if you have nothing better to do with your life than come on this forum and try and make yourself feel better by scaring someone else I think you really need to either, A) Get a job; B) Get a life; or C) Get bent =) I suggest all 3. Just because you got issues dont try and justify them with other people's fear.

Posted June 21st at 5:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

Okay guys, let's play nice...

Jack: You bet. Afternoon SPC update is hitting strongly the hail potential tomorrow. This could again be another day where we get some impressive hail for Upstate NY. Similar to Monday, it looks like the best chance will be further east, but, as we saw on Monday, this did end up being all inclusive. However, this time around (and obviously Bill is doing the forecast, so I don't want to step on his toes...this is just based on me looking at limited stuff), it appears showers/storms could move through tonight and leave us cloudy tomorrow morning? This would certainly justify a 30% severe risk east of our area, rather than right over us. We'll see...a lot of what happens tomorrow will be entirely dependent on what occurs tonight/tomorrow morning....as is usually the case, a nowcasting situation. I will say however, after looking at some BUFKIT data (a program we can use to check on a lot of model details), the conditions do seem favorable for hail. Just looking at model temperatures aloft, one of the key indicators for hailers we look at has a low threshold, so...if any storms get going, they could produce hail.

Posted June 21st at 5:22 PM
Bill Kardas:

Teri: Not that excited about the showers and storm moving through this evening.

Posted June 21st at 6:23 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Strong winds here...30-40mph.

Posted June 21st at 6:51 PM
Tim (Salisbury):

So far this spring/ summer has been a real BUST! We are throwing a Graduation Party for my daughter next Sunday, Bill, Matt any ideas what to look for?

Posted June 21st at 7:13 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Getting a few sprinkles here. winds are 12 mph

Posted June 21st at 7:37 PM
Bill Kardas:

Tim: Looks like next weekend STILL looks unsettled. There's a good chance for showers and storms into next weekend too, but like we saw today, there will be plenty of opportunities for dry weather in between.

Posted June 21st at 7:44 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Not even a sprinkle here.Just some gusty winds.It's been very dry here.I doubt much more than 1/10" even including last Mondays storms.Hopefully things will green up tomorrow.

Posted June 21st at 7:44 PM
Bob Jones:

Thunderstorm passing through Rome. Where is Stevo to deny it?

Posted June 21st at 7:45 PM
Matt (CB):

The winds really Picked and we had a few drops of rain about 40 min ago.Now it is just breezy and overcast.The temp dropped about 7 degrees.It looks as though we have much stronger storms to our west.When will they get here and how bad are they gonna be?

Posted June 21st at 7:58 PM
Bill Kardas:

Matt,

I think the stuff you see out west will weaken a bit, just like the storms we had this evening weakened with the loss of daytime heating. By the time this stuff gets into CNY it may produce a few showers and some thunder. The front should kick up more storms tomorrow, and those are the ones that we're going to be watching for gusty winds and small hail.

Posted June 21st at 9:00 PM
Matt(CB):

Thanks Bill.They do appear to be weakening on their eastward track

Posted June 21st at 9:13 PM
stevo (rome):

hey bob! just for the record no thunderstorm here today as it weakened as usual. just some rain is all! there is no need for the sarcasm. why are you here? the 40 year old divorcees not wanna cyber with you no more on paltalk? get a life Noob!!!!

Posted June 21st at 10:46 PM
jessie:

Now that it is cloudy is that going to help tomorrow so we dont get so many storms tomorrow or do you think we will clear out and get some sun tomorrow to help fuel the storms

Posted June 21st at 10:53 PM
bob (utica):

Tim, what do you mean by a bust?

Posted June 21st at 11:23 PM
jessie:

i was just wondering i dont get channel 2 so this is the only way i can get my info..So the rain that is out by rochester on the radar is this the cold front coming in because i do not see any more rain past it...thanks to anyone that can answer me

Posted June 21st at 11:53 PM
Matt Lanza:

Guys, please cool it.

Bob: I think he meant that there has been a lack of summer weather this year. Outside of the one week period of heat, it's been cooler than normal since the end of April. He would be correct in that sense.

As an aside, because I had some downtime this evening, I looked at hail reports since 1998 for New York. From 1998-2006, the largest amount of hail reports in a calendar year was 193 (2004). We had 301 last year and so far this year we have over 225, so we're heading toward a "record" year. I have little to back this up with right now, but I think more frequent intrusions of cooler than normal temperatures aloft the last 12 months or so (corresponding with a slight decrease in global temperatures) have made it slightly easier for storms to produce hail(you're combining a better upper level for hail, better dynamics and sun angle for storms, and more of a tropical connection to help with those storms). Couple this with better reporting, better coordination between you folks, us, and the NWS, and you probably can account for the ridiculous amount of hail reports since last year.

Posted June 22nd at 12:04 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

It's starting to Look like the most of the action tomorrow will be SE of here. Storm out in Western NYS are mainly rain storms with some embedded thunder at this time. The cells with the most lightning are out over the lake heading into Canada.

Posted June 22nd at 12:26 AM
Andrew (wboro):

Rain with a few thunder rumbles here right now.

Posted June 22nd at 4:31 AM
Ilion:

Thunder and lightning woke me up here in Ilion. Very noisy right now! Heavy rain.

Posted June 22nd at 4:48 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Looks good to me...Sun should be coming out soon...halfway decent set-up.Letter Rippp!

Posted June 22nd at 7:48 AM
Matt Lanza:

Instability just isn't there yet, so it will be awhile before anything is able to really get going.

Posted June 22nd at 11:19 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Albany is getting a little hail.

Posted June 22nd at 12:25 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah it looked like we were going to get alot more sun this morning.It's just trying to peek through here now.Hopefully we can get something rolling.Don't see signs of anything so far.

Posted June 22nd at 12:31 PM
Matt Lanza:

Instability numbers are now acceptable for modest thunderstorms. Nothing outrageous at this point, and no reason to go nuts over severe weather potential, but..we'll see if anything can evolve off lake breeze boundaries or otherwise.

Posted June 22nd at 12:35 PM
Ken -South Utica:

Interesting to note, that the spc has us not firmly in the 30% area ....looks as though they have shifted it from the east back to the west.

Posted June 22nd at 12:36 PM
Matt Lanza:

Ken: Lack of shear in New England and morning storms (one of which has dropped almost baseball size hail in New Hampshire) have forced SPC to cut the risk back west and thus centered over CNY and WNY. Definitely liking the hail potential today again. Strong winds are also a possibility. Still not seeing anything outrageous as far as widespread severe would go, which is why I think a lot of storms today could be severe even though they look marginal (won't take as much to produce decent hail today). Still not of Monday's caliber, but not bad at all.

Posted June 22nd at 12:41 PM
Mike(Leonardsville):

Hey Rob, storms and showers are starting to show up near the fingerlakes now.

Posted June 22nd at 12:46 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah just saw that.Big storm just blew up over Wayne.Good sign!

Posted June 22nd at 12:53 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

New cell just popped up. Its just crossing the Oswego county line.

Posted June 22nd at 1:23 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Nothing too explosive so far.Usually on a good day,cells would go severe alot quicker.That Wayne cell should of been severe in a hurry.

Posted June 22nd at 1:39 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Well, let's try this again, last post didn't show. Just checked the SPC 1:300Pm and it looks like we're 30% across the board. We're right in the center of the 30% for wind and hail, and knocked back to just 2% for tornados. Keeps clouding over, you think that'll knock some of the strength out of the weather?

Posted June 22nd at 1:47 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Cell NW of Elmira has a little small hail with it. It looks like things are trying to get going west of Syracuse.

Posted June 22nd at 1:54 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Hopefully it's just a slow start.I don't really like the looks of things either but SPC must see something or they would of cut us back to a 15 risk.

Posted June 22nd at 1:57 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Hey all, sorry for the double post. Just checked the radar and looks like a small cell down in Cortland County might be heading our way, the last reading showed it had a 70% chance for half inch hail if I read it right.
Oh and that storm this morning, wow, that was a noisy sucker, sounded like it was parked right over the house an had a pretty go light show as well.

Posted June 22nd at 1:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

Severe T'Storm Watch box should be out before 3 PM I would think.

Posted June 22nd at 2:02 PM
Bill Kardas:

SPC is contemplating issuing a severe thunderstorm watch across our region. Some storms are starting to pop up.

Posted June 22nd at 2:03 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

I still think the real severe stuff will be south of here. I believe the bullseye is central and northwest PA and SE NY. As for up here we're going to see pop up cells. Most areas should see some thunder today; Like Matt said anyone of those pop-up storms could go severe.

Posted June 22nd at 2:04 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

That should say NE Pennsylvania

Posted June 22nd at 2:06 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

I will be here at work till 6pm and will let you know if we get anything good in Chenango...

Posted June 22nd at 2:18 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Severe thunderstorm watch just went up

Posted June 22nd at 2:26 PM
Bill Kardas:

Severe thunderstorm watch until 10PM.

Posted June 22nd at 2:29 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-035-039-041-
043-049-051-053-057-065-067-069-075-077-083-091-093-095-097-099-
101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-230200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0596.080622T1825Z-080623T0200Z/

NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBANY ALLEGANY BROOME
CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA
CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA
CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS
FULTON GREENE HAMILTON
HERKIMER LEWIS LIVINGSTON
MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ONTARIO OSWEGO
OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER
SENECA STEUBEN SULLIVAN
TIOGA TOMPKINS ULSTER
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WYOMING YATES

Posted June 22nd at 2:31 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

That's quite the slight risk area they have out for today.It's just about half the country.Still struggling to get some sun here.72 degrees.

Posted June 22nd at 2:33 PM
Matt Lanza:

Anyone watching the Yankees game right now..kinda cool to see the storm approaching. They should probably go into a delay momentarily.

Posted June 22nd at 2:41 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221742Z - 221915Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
INCREASE ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DEEPENING
CUMULUS/EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NY. RUC DIAGNOSTIC
FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE 70S WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. EXPECT
TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AS AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES
AND LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS NOW OVER THE UPPER OH
VALLEY SPREAD EWD/NEWD.

AREA VWPS INDICATE MODEST SWLY/WSWLY TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WHICH
MAY SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS. THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

Posted June 22nd at 2:44 PM
Jimmy DeFazio:

Lots of sun here in the past few hours wih temps going up.

Posted June 22nd at 3:02 PM
Matt (Utica):

Warnings are starting to go up already, Severe Thunderstorm Warning east of Albany. Not technically in NY State, but still... bunch of little storms north, south and west of Syracuse, all moving this way. Anyone think we'll get hail like the other day? Lets make a poll: Yes or No.

Posted June 22nd at 3:12 PM
Bill Kardas:

Watching the storm in SW Madison county closely right now. It's now flagging small hail.

Posted June 22nd at 3:12 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Cell southeast of Syracuse is flagging half inch hail. It is heading for Waterville

Posted June 22nd at 3:17 PM
Mike(Rome):

Steveo, I know what you mean by us not getting any storms. I feel your pain, it seems like every time something comes near us, it weakens. Yesterday, all we got was rain and a couple wind gusts. So, hopefully we can get something today!

Posted June 22nd at 3:24 PM
Bo (Taberg):

I've got a feeling that we're gonna catch some hail, alright. Got just a brief touch last time around. Hope my 'maters can stand up to it. Anyone with experience on how veggie gardens handle hail? Probably not pretty, I'd imagine. Can't seem to find a weather window to mow any hay yet this summer. Waiting for the go ahead from the sky bosses here on WKTV2, patiently, anxiously...

Posted June 22nd at 3:26 PM
Bill Kardas:

So far it looks like things are under control. That storm in Madison County lost it's hail potential...at least for the time being. The rest of the area looks rather quiet, with a line of showers and thunder orientated N-S along the western Oneida County border. Nothing is developing anywhere near as rapidly as it did on Monday, which is a good sign.

Posted June 22nd at 3:44 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Cell south of Sylvan Beach is starting too develop a hail core.

Posted June 22nd at 3:52 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Just missed that storm to the south. Looked pretty nasty as it went by! Some moderate rain and thunder here. Temp fell more than 10 degrees.

Posted June 22nd at 4:04 PM
Ted:

Storm just moving thru here in Ilion, heavy rain and thunder so far

Posted June 22nd at 4:19 PM
Matt Lanza:

Severe Tstorm Warning just popped in Herkimer

Posted June 22nd at 4:27 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Matt, I'll take you up on your poll. My vote's "No" on hail. The way the storms are tracking so far it looks like the same old story their going around us.

Posted June 22nd at 4:28 PM
Jessie:

Yes its raining heavy and the temps dropped from 75 to 65 in a matter of minutes cant wait till the storm passes over so i can go out for a smoke dew points at 58 and humidity at 88%

Posted June 22nd at 4:30 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Headed out to check things out! Weak rotation possible.

Posted June 22nd at 4:31 PM
Gordon (Northwestern):

Still waiting for all the rain we were supppose to get today. In fact I still waiting for all the rain we were suppose to get since last Friday (10 days ago) Only .38" since then in a few showers, although I did get .16" last night. Still pretty dry up here this tear so far. Everything either goes North or South.

Posted June 22nd at 4:34 PM
Ted (Ilion):

Storm moved thru here pretty quick - dumped a quick .38" of rain

Posted June 22nd at 4:37 PM
Josh (Ilion):

Storm is over. Gusty winds...some thunder and lightning...EXTREMELY heavy rain. No hail. Lots of ponding and large puddles oustide of my house in the street, etc. Sun coming out now.

Posted June 22nd at 4:37 PM
Bill Kardas:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
- UNTIL 530 PM EDT
- AT 417 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ILION...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH.
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HERKIMER BY 430 PM EDT...
  6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLEVILLE BY 445 PM EDT...
  LITTLE FALLS BY 450 PM EDT...
  DOLGEVILLE BY 505 PM EDT...
Posted June 22nd at 4:41 PM
Becky (whitesboro):

The Sky Looks pretty Nasty Out in the distance towards Rome Area!!

Posted June 22nd at 4:42 PM
Karen ~~ Westmoreland:

we just had a few minutes of pea size hail.....it is plain rain now...

Posted June 22nd at 4:45 PM
Jill Reale:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for ONeida County until 530

Posted June 22nd at 4:49 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Cell NW of Gloversville is flagging one inch hail.

Posted June 22nd at 4:49 PM
Jill Reale:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NYC065-222130-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0141.080622T2038Z-080622T2130Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
438 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 530 PM EDT
* AT 434 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ROME...MOVING EAST AT 24 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ORISKANY AND FLOYD BY 445 PM EDT...
NEW YORK MILLS BY 450 PM EDT...
STITTVILLE AND HOLLAND PATENT BY 455 PM EDT...
UTICA BY 500 PM EDT...
BARNVELD AND TRENTON BY 505 PM EDT...
TRENTON FALLS BY 510 PM EDT...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING
OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM

Posted June 22nd at 4:50 PM
Mike(Little Falls):

Here we had really gusty winds, cloud to ground lightning, and I'd say pea to penny sized hail for about 3 or 4 minutes.

Posted June 22nd at 4:50 PM
Tony - CNYWeather.com:

Sent ya a couple picts and of the clouds in Westmo. Pretty neat video of the hail too!! It's too big to email. It is here: http://www.speedyawards.com/images/hail.MOV

Posted June 22nd at 4:55 PM
jessie:

is the storm you are talking about in post 85 going to hit ilion or the mohawk valley and if so when do you think it will hit us thanks

Posted June 22nd at 5:01 PM
Bob Jones:

I bet Stevo is going to deny any sort of storm from hitting Rome again even though we all saw it pass overhead yet again.

Posted June 22nd at 5:08 PM
Tim (Mapledale Road-Barneveld):

OK it's raining pretty good here and the sun is out at the same time?

Posted June 22nd at 5:24 PM
Matt:

tornado warnings were up for albany, and reports coming out from down there?

Posted June 22nd at 5:33 PM
Bill Kardas:

Small hail reported in Rome.

Posted June 22nd at 5:34 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Just got back in. No hail or wind damage to report here, but the wind did get strong. At treetop level (60-80ft) I would estimate winds were around 50mph. Ground level winds were between 30-40mph. Some moderate to heavy rain for about ten minutes as well.

Posted June 22nd at 5:35 PM
ilion:

so when do you guys think this will all end i mean the storms also what does tuesday look like my son has a feild trip to syracuse zoo for school and i was kinda hoping it was not going to be rained out

Posted June 22nd at 5:48 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The storms in Ontario have been training for awhile. Their getting a lot of rain southwest of Ottawa.

Posted June 22nd at 5:57 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Ilion: There could be a few more pop-up cells. However as we get closer to sunset things should quite down. As for Tuesday there could be some rain and isolated thunder.

Posted June 22nd at 6:11 PM
Matt Lanza:

I went out after the N of Albany storm when it was TOR warned...had the fiancee drive. We saw some trees down and flash flooding, but nothing of significance. Damage reports are scattered so far from it...nothing major to my knowledge.

Posted June 22nd at 6:14 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Still nothing here, except clouds.

Posted June 22nd at 6:25 PM
Matt Lanza:

Looks like the watch has been dropped for areas west of Herkimer County (Herk and Hamilton would still be under).

Posted June 22nd at 6:37 PM
kelly:

Matt is that for all of Herkimer County or just northern?

Posted June 22nd at 6:40 PM
jessie:

well looking at te radar it looks to be getting a little better outside it does not look that bad on radar right now lets hope it stays that way we are back up to 72 with a dew point of 60 and humidity at 60%

Posted June 22nd at 6:40 PM
Matt Lanza:

All of Herkimer is still under (though Albany may not have had time to go in and trim the watch area back yet due to current severe weather in their area). It seems to me that the threat for anything widespread is squashed.

Posted June 22nd at 6:44 PM
Mike(Rome):

Actually, Bob Jones, where I am in Rome, no hail came down, just really large rain drops for about 5 mins.

Posted June 22nd at 6:45 PM
kelly:

So basically you think anything sevre is gone now I was hopeing for more heavy rain we had flooding on our streets for a little while and it was neat to see was hopeing for more rain at least..

Posted June 22nd at 6:47 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

There is an outside chance the stuff in NW Pennsylvania and Ohio could be in the area after dark. There shouldn't be anything strong. However, there could be a few heavy downpours and some thunder.

Posted June 22nd at 7:02 PM
stevo (rome):

all we got in Rome was some moderate to heavy rain,and a few distant rumbles of thunder to the east!!!!!!!!!!None overhead! For the record BOBBO I was complaining rome doesnt get severe storms! maybe once in a great while!!!!!!! everything weakens before it gets here or after it leaves!!!!!!!

Posted June 22nd at 8:55 PM
stevo (rome):

that was supposed to say reintensifies after iy leaves!!!!!

Posted June 22nd at 8:58 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Matt. Got a question. What is it about this area, that keeps storms from pushing through? Is it the hills? Valley's? Upper winds? Rome labs? (Kidding) You've seen it, storms that look like they're going to plow streight through either break up just before they reach the area or they go around. I'm just curious, we've all seen it happen.

Posted June 22nd at 9:47 PM
Mike (Rome):

Gonna have to agree with Stevo on the storm in Rome, or non-storm. This time. Non-exsistent where we were. We had a softball tournament going on close to Griffis. We had some heavy wind for a bit and a quick downpour with big raindrops but no hail and no lightning. Not a major storm at all. Just seemed to us like a passing shower. Play continued during the rain. Not even enough rain or wind to stop play.

Posted June 22nd at 10:07 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jack: They don't....a lot of people have this misnomer that their area is immune from severe weather, snow, etc. when they don't get hit for awhile. The idea that storms don't hit Rome, or spare the valley, or whatever any other complaints about lack of bad weather there are is false. I've been here only for a few years now (follwing this area since mid 2005). Every community I know of in our viewing area has received at least 8" of snow in one serving, and has been hit by either flash flooding, wind damage, or hail.

That said, the misconception lies in the fact that some areas do get it more often than others. Otsego/Chenango Counties are a prime area to get hit multiple times because they have terrain, which generally enhances storm development. Additionally, they are further south and more often closer to the higher dewpoints which help to fuel storms. The eastern Mohawk Valley and Albany area get it more often because of a N-S valley converging with an E-W valley. The Mohawk Valley in and of itself gets hit less often because it is a valley, yes, but mostly because if any storms develop near a Lake Ontario breeze or near Oneida Lake, they move north into areas north of Rome. Northern Oneida/Herkimer are also often hit more than other areas for this reason. So it's not that the Valley "doesn't get severe weather..." because of geography and orientation, they are supposed to get less severe weather than Cooperstown or Boonville. Not every severe weather setup...even if it produces 100 hail reports... is going to hit everyone in our viewing area. That's just not how things work.

Posted June 22nd at 11:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

Another thing you can do (although more difficult to read) is look at the US lightning density map. The highest concentration of strikes in CNY is on either side of the Mohawk Valley. It's all in perception.

Posted June 22nd at 11:26 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Okey, thanks Matt. I had a feeling that the valley had some say on how often/ hard we got hit.

Posted June 22nd at 11:37 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Here is something else some people don't know. Some of the Counties in southeast New York have a higher risk factor for tornadoes than many places in the country.

Posted June 22nd at 11:55 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Cells south of Albany are flagging 1.25 inch hail.

Posted June 23rd at 1:36 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Radar looks more impressive now than it has all day!

Posted June 23rd at 2:30 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Yeah there are quite a few cells moving in. South of Albany has been getting hit fairly hard for a few hours.

Posted June 23rd at 3:31 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Hey Stevo, I live in a prime area for storms, yet we got nothing but some everyday type rain. No Thunder, No lightning....It was just another day of showers. I am so glad!

Posted June 23rd at 7:00 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Well we'll try again today.Should at least have a few storms developing at some point.Only had a sprinkle yeterday.

Posted June 23rd at 7:18 AM
Tim(Salisbury):

Why would anybody that owns a home wish for severe weather? We sure get our share here in salisbury!

Posted June 23rd at 8:05 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Starting to get some sunshine here.Shear values look alot better today than yeterday.Looks a little more favorable for storms to me.Although SPC is still keeping the greatest threat SE of us.

Posted June 23rd at 9:04 AM
Ken - South Utica:

A bit suprised to see us in a slight risk today, i was under the impression that yesterday was the day....i will be honest having been out already it seems much more humid than yesterday, and the air just feels more like a weather day than yesterday.....maybe its just me though.

Posted June 23rd at 9:40 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Yesterday the ingredients were there, except for a triggering mechanism. All we received was some severe pulse thunderstorms Now today the setup is a little different because there is a large convergence zone over the northeast, So severe weather could be more widespread over New York State.

Posted June 23rd at 10:33 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

It'll be alot easier to sustain a storm than yesterday.Once they get going they should last a little longer.I'm just worried that the stationary front might be just a bit too far to the east.Still haven't hit 70 here.Sun has been in and out.

Posted June 23rd at 10:42 AM
Becky ( Whitesboro):

I also feel that it is alot more humid than yetserday! Looked as if it rained some point over night at home.
ANy idea when these sotrms if any will come through our area? My husband is running tonight and hoping to the weather isn't a factor!
Thanks!

Posted June 23rd at 10:59 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

My guess is that if we were going to see anything it should start to pop up within the next hour or two.The trough is in our vicinity now.They might fire just a bit east of here.Also some energy coming out of Ohio that could possibly trigger something later.

Posted June 23rd at 11:06 AM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Well, I see as of 11AM we're in the 15% range for both hail and wind. 119:Tim, good question. When I lived in an apartment I wanted the really nasty type weather, but now since I own my home now, I don't want that stuff. Funny how things change when you own. Don't get me wrong, I still like a good storm now an then, I just don't want the "High" winds or damaging hail.

Posted June 23rd at 11:12 AM
Bill Kardas:

Growing up in the Hudson Valley, I've noticed that the really bad storms would often pass north of my area. We would get our fair share too but not as often. For example, the storms moving through always produced less wind and rarely hail. I can count on my hands the number of days I've seen hail as a kid! I've seen hail more frequently here. Why? The elevation of my house was less than 100 feet over sea level...and that probably has everything to do with it. So I can see where people are coming from, but at the same time, it's not as dramatic as people make it sound.

Posted June 23rd at 11:21 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

I don't have any trees left to cause damage to my house.What the storms didn't take down I had cut down.I wasn't going to deal with the damage I had last year.So unless I get winds of more than 80mph(which is rare)I should be in good shape.Then there is always the hail threat too.But you really need golfball or larger to really cause any major problems.That's also rare around here.I've only been in one golfball storm in the 30 years I've been here.

Posted June 23rd at 11:27 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Here is the current Mesoscale Discussion for Northeast

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...CNTRL PA...CNTRL AND ERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231510Z - 231645Z

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN CNTRL NY...ERN NY AND CNTRL PA OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. A WW SHOULD BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. RUC
ANALYSIS INDICATES SBCAPE VALUES ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ARE IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT / 500 MB TEMPS OF -14 TO -16C / WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. IN
ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPENING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT MULTICELL
LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 06/23/2008

Posted June 23rd at 11:28 AM
Ken - South Utica:

Meso discussion up not from SPC....large hail and wind damage highlited.....watch possible.

Posted June 23rd at 11:31 AM
Matt Lanza:

Just looking at some maps to prep for the day and all the ingredients are in place...very impressive shear values right now should allow anything that develops to sustain itself. Instability isn't overwhelming, but it's in place. Temperatures required for storms today are low. Thresholds for hail again are modest, so we could be talking again about "marginal" storms potentially being severe. SPC should be issuing a watch, primarily S & E of Utica shortly.

Posted June 23rd at 11:31 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

The New Convective Outlook is out in about an hour.... See if the SPC changes anything.

Posted June 23rd at 11:36 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

looks like a few cells are starting to develop west of Syracuse.

Posted June 23rd at 11:51 AM
jessie:

well here in ilion we are at 72 degrees with humisity at 61% and a dew point of 58..
Becky where are you seeing the cells developing westof syracuse i looked on my weather bug radar and are seeing a very very small spot of blue out west of syracuse

Posted June 23rd at 12:12 PM
Jmd (Fonda):

Question to the folks in the know: what do I need to help analyze what's happening....(boy, does THAT sound like a DUMB question....let me clarify!)I look at the radars (many many of them) also water vapor images (both IR and visible), lightning strike maps, wunderground storm cell information (cell heights, direction, etc.) placement of fronts and the usual descriptive information that is summarized in the local news/weather forecast....because I'm just not getting where the set-up is for 2 days in a row of possible severe storms? It must be in the interpretation of the forceast models....which I haven't gotten the hang of yet? Here's what I see: low pressure, located slowly moving east (at this time at the NY/MASS border), with another low pressure system just past Wisconsin..with moisture coming form the Gulf moving north????..if this was a high pressure, I could easily understand the clash between H and L to cause such a scene....what am I missing here? And thanks

Posted June 23rd at 12:15 PM
Bill Kardas:

Jmd: A great site to look at for severe weather potential is the SPC. Click here for the site . This site is great for beginners and experts on severe weather. The SPC issues severe weather outlooks for the country that we often refer to on this blog. The SPC also has explainers (some of them are very technical) as to why severe weather is possible for the region that are very helpful to us. The SPC has great maps that plot the current trends of instability, shear, moisture, etc etc that keeps us on top of things.

Posted June 23rd at 12:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jmd: First off...a "clash" of high and low pressure won't produce severe weather...that produces wind (wind is basically caused by the difference in air pressure). You need a "clash" of air masses....such as cooler, drier air trying to replace warm, humid air (such as we have today). But there's so much more to it than that (which is why we had to go through 4 years of school!). Here's just a basic checklist. This link will get you a basic run down of forecasting.(Gh)/guides/mtr/fcst/home.rxml Just do a Google search for severe weather forecasting or how to forecast thunderstorms and you'll find a lot.

When I look at the map today, this is what I see: A cold front to our west, with southerly flow up the east coast...slightly high dewpoints. I see pockets of sunshine right now. Additionally, I see a favorable morning upper air sounding, with some mid-level dry air and pretty cool upper air temperatures. The sunshine this morning has allowed for pretty good destabilization of the atmosphere over us. Combined with a pretty solid area of wind shear (also evident on AM soundings) and a trigger or two (the front, terrain/lake breezes), then you have a rather favorable setup for thunderstorm development. Additionally, using a basic equation, I can calculate what the threshold for hail is today using a product called "VIL," vertically integrated liquid. I know that a VIL over 35 today (which is fairly low) would be the threshold for storms to produce hail. Given the strong shear and decent lapse rates, any storm that does begin cranking will have potential for large hail (and strong winds).

Now, I guess the question is, do you want to know what you're missing? ;) Forecasting severe weather isn't easy at all...it gets even worse in winter when you have to decide between rain, sleet or snow...or ice as a precipitation type. The setup over us today is somewhat similar to yesterday, which would imply not widespread severe weather, but isolated severe weather, especially to our south and east (where higher dewpoints are). Impossible without schooling and experience? No...Complex and almost impossible? Probably.

Posted June 23rd at 12:26 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Jessie: The cells are moving into Oswego County. There just rain cells no thunder at this time.

Posted June 23rd at 12:28 PM
Jmd (Fonda):

To Bill: thanks,and I forgot to mention I DO look at SPC site, too, every day...that's how this whole thing with me (the noob) got going! and to Adam, thanks as well, that really does clear it up...I should have remembered from Earth Science class (do they even call it that anymore ;)...about the H/L thing and the wind!

But briefly what is "a favorable morning upper air sounding?" AND you're probably right about do I WANT to know what I'm missing....it's only the thunderstorms that I take the most interest in.....although ice storms are another area to keep track of....snow storms? I can take 'em or leave 'em! Last and certainly not least, all of you here are a GREAT asset that deserves the highest praise.....I don't know of too many other places where this much time and effort is displayed for the greater good! THANKS a billion....

Posted June 23rd at 12:41 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Sunny and 74 here - air doesn't feel all that humid - wondering if storms will actually be able to get going here.

Posted June 23rd at 12:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jmd: At some point soon, I'll either post a link with a good explanation to those soundings, or I'll post a good entry explaining the basics. You can glean a lot from just a few lines. It's pretty cool! I'll get that on here eventually for you.

Posted June 23rd at 12:54 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Dews are slowly dropping now across the area.Down to 58 here and mid 50's to the west.That's not going to help.

Posted June 23rd at 1:02 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Here is all I know about sounding. I dont know if it will help? I read sounding diagrams, they provide a important means for determining the stability of the atmosphere above a specific location. This is accomplished By using the idea of is called an air parcel, it is lifted or lowered and compared with conditions of the surrounding environment. You can read this info on T-plots. Parcels of unsaturated air tend to follow the green lines as they go up or down. The light blue lines show parcels filled with water vapor respond. Then there are the yellow lines (mixing lines) these figure the weight of water vapor in a parcel. The air will always try to maintain a stable mixing ratio as it goes up and comes down. An unstable parcel will accelerate upwards and it is the primary means for thunderstorm development

Posted June 23rd at 1:12 PM
Jmd (Fonda):

Thanks, Matt. I'll look forward to it....and I forget to mention, GREAT job on the cloud formation entry!... After reading it, I spent the whole next day looking up to try and identify them! Those "roll" clouds? I don't think I've ever seen anything like them....have you? Are they a rare site? (Sorry, I identified you as ADAM before!) my bad!

Posted June 23rd at 1:16 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Roll clouds are relatively rare. They can be a sign of possible microburst activity.

Posted June 23rd at 1:47 PM
Working in Utica:

Storm popped by Waterville.

Posted June 23rd at 1:53 PM
Jmd (Fonda):

Becky: thanks on the soundings description....I understand the concept, maybe not the whole process!....and you're thoughts are welcomed here (by me, at least...) as it is evident you are quite talented in this field!

Posted June 23rd at 1:57 PM
Working in Utica:

Noticed that the cell over Waterville seems to be developing a bit. Looks like it is tracking toward the Valley?? Seems like when t-storms flare up around Waterville, the track heads toward the Valley. Is that just coincindence...or am I dreaming up stuff? Just my .02 cents worth of thoughts and questions.

Posted June 23rd at 2:08 PM
Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

Sunny and raining as im getting just clipped by that cell.

Posted June 23rd at 2:33 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Looks like the SPC moved the 15% area to include the North Country.

Posted June 23rd at 3:03 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jmd: I've noticed that when we're not around, Becky provides some really good insights and can explain the good stuff right along with us!

Still watching things on radar here. A few cells are trying to pop W and S of Utica, but nothing in the region has been able to grow much taller than 25,000 feet or so...so we're not seeing anything severe. We'll see if as we continue the heating of the day if that changes.

Posted June 23rd at 3:13 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

That cell in northern Herkimer blew up fast!

Posted June 23rd at 3:28 PM
Matt Lanza:

Michael: Pulser! Flared up like a rocket and pulsed back down fast. We're getting there, but I think the lack of high dewpoints is really hampering anything from reaching full potential. There's a great setup aloft for storms...we just can't tap into it at the moment.

Posted June 23rd at 3:36 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt: I'm not sure about the area's north of the thruway. However, I think we might be able to tap some of it aloft in a few hours, at least Utica and points south and east.

Posted June 23rd at 3:56 PM
Bill Kardas:

Matt and I are watching the radar and noticing how storms seem to do well near the lakes and kind of peeter out as they try to advance east. Doesn't seem too exciting right now.

Posted June 23rd at 4:00 PM
Matt Lanza:

What's incredible to me right now is that looking out in the longer range, both the Euro and GFS show the pattern that develops over next weekend (similar to our current one) will last almost without budging an inch through at least the middle of next week and probably through at least next (4th of July) weekend...which would mean continued isolated storm chances, temperatures at or just below normal and the same sort of thing day after day. This is a mid-spring pattern stuck in the middle of summer. I will say that the Euro continues to want to bulge the western ridge further east around the 10th day of the period (been showing this on the 10th forecast day for a bit)...so maybe by the week of the 7th of July we can get back to some sustained heat?

Posted June 23rd at 4:08 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

That storm coming into Onondaga looks healthy.Looks borderline severe right now.

Posted June 23rd at 4:20 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

There doesn't seem to be much of a problem up in Ontario. They have been lit up like a christmas tree all afternoon.

Posted June 23rd at 4:20 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Rob: there seem to be a lot more activity starting up west of Syracuse. I think things are getting ready to pop.

Posted June 23rd at 4:24 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah there's quite a few out that way.Those will probably crash with the sun though by the time they make it here.We'll see how this Onondaga storm holds.If it pulses back down I don't think we're going to have much action.

Posted June 23rd at 4:27 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The storms seem to pulse down when they get east of I-81.

Posted June 23rd at 5:06 PM
Matt Lanza:

Looks like things are starting now in the Adirondacks....this one cell outside Syracuse keeps pulsing up and back down..never severe. We'll see...conditions may become more favorable in the next hour or so to get things going...dewpoints have stopped dropping and started recovering a little.

Posted June 23rd at 5:17 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah my dew is back up to 60 now.Shear seems to still be decent out this way.Were due for something.It's been aggravating the last couple of days!

Posted June 23rd at 5:21 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

I don't know, just watching it on the radar it doesn't look like anything can break that barrier to our west. But the weather further south looks interesting, any chance of any of that pushing in?

Posted June 23rd at 5:33 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jack: Always the chance...still not convinced we'll be shut out. Severe weather is doubtful right now, but some of us will see something.

I'm pretty confident that cell along the Thruway is dropping some pea to marble/dime sized hail.

Posted June 23rd at 5:54 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

This cell is starting to look borderling severe to me.Pulsed up quite a bit the last several minutes.See if we can sustain it.

Posted June 23rd at 5:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
554 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
- UNTIL 645 PM EDT
- AT 551 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  SULLIVAN...MOVING EAST AT 28 MPH.
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CANASTOTA AND VERONA BEACH BY 610 PM EDT...
  WAMPSVILLE AND LENOX BY 615 PM EDT...
  ONEIDA BY 620 PM EDT...
  VERONA AND SHERRILL BY 625 PM EDT...
  VERNON BY 630 PM EDT...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING
OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

Posted June 23rd at 5:58 PM
stevo (rome):

watching another storm passing just to our south once again!!!!!!!!! its gotta be oneida lake! they seem to change direction when the get there! This storm started to go over the lake and changed direction to go around it? any explainayion for that?

Posted June 23rd at 6:00 PM
Matt Lanza:

Stevo: Your explanation is in comment 110....you don't get missed all the time and the lake doesn't impact the motion of storms.

Fairly confident some penny to nickel size hail is ongoing with that cell. Best bet for hail right now is immediately north of Canastota and Wampsville. This may be pulsing down here shortly. If it maintains, the hail would arrive in Oneida and Sherrill in the next 15-20 minutes.

Posted June 23rd at 6:05 PM
Matt Lanza:

The storm has pulsed back up again with potential penny to quarter size hail now just north of Canastota and probably will pass just immediately north of Oneida.

Would love a ground truth report from that area if anyone can provide it.

Posted June 23rd at 6:12 PM
Tim (Salisbury):

Stevo; What do you want? Lightning strikes hit your house, destroying all your expensive electronics? Or maybe a tree blowed through your roof? What is your obsession with life threatening severe weather? Sheesh ,thats like wishing for a fatal disease!

Posted June 23rd at 6:15 PM
Matt Lanza:

Just received a quarter size hail report in our newsroom from Canastota. Hail core from this should pass over Oneida and Sherrill shortly.

Posted June 23rd at 6:24 PM
Tim ( Salisbury):

For someone who has had several power outages this year due to ice storms, heavy winds, lightnening & losing numerous surge protectors , Electronics, & spoiled Food for being out of power for long periods of time. I have no patience for this stupidity of wishing for dangerous economically devastating severe weather! Maybe you need to have your computer struck ,so you wont keep posting this nonsense!

Posted June 23rd at 6:24 PM
stevo (rome):

Im sorry I have seen way to much to believe that! like the storm forming to the north of that one putting rome in between!

Posted June 23rd at 6:24 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

(171) Tim. LOL. I can understand where Stevo's coming from, I felt that way too not long ago, but see my post on (126). Anyways, back to the weather, that storm to our west looks like it's getting some purple banding in it and on the weather underground they're showing 60% for hail.

Posted June 23rd at 6:24 PM
stevo (rome):

you know what tim? yes i want all that! i live for it bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted June 23rd at 6:26 PM
Matt Lanza:

Stevo: Believe it all you want, but it's based on meteorologically sound principles...that's how it works. People just seem to think that if things don't happen in their backyards, they never happen..simply untrue.

Posted June 23rd at 6:26 PM
stevo (rome):

lightning hit my house? yeah right! id be lucky i get rain to hit my house to keep the garden going! lol

Posted June 23rd at 6:28 PM
Matt Lanza:

Again, if anyone has reports from Oneida/Sherrill, they'd be much appreciated.

Posted June 23rd at 6:32 PM
Becky - Whitesboro:

Hey Matt - Just watched your news cast. My husband is doing the running the distance in Utica starting now, do you think it will miss them?
Ths Sky is not looking pretty right now in are our neck of the woods.

Posted June 23rd at 6:36 PM
Matt Lanza:

They will more likely than not get rain, but the storm is rapidly pulsing back down (weakening) so other than some occasional lightning, I don't see anything too nuts right now...and it's still close to 30 mins away from Utica.

Posted June 23rd at 6:38 PM
Mary (Sherrill):

Just rain so far where I am

Posted June 23rd at 6:40 PM
Becky - Whitesboro:

Thanks for the update Matt! Appreciate it. I was watching the the weather channel and saw deadly lightning and hail w/this storm and seek shelter NOW just as they were getting ready to start running!
You guys do a great job keeping the public up to date! Loved your posting on types of Storms! Really interesting.
I am sure you will have a busy few hours!!!

Posted June 23rd at 6:41 PM
stevo (rome):

wow what a nice verga shower lol. too bad the birdys are still bathing in dirt!

Posted June 23rd at 6:50 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Don't here any thunder with this approaching cell.New cell now just south of Clinton.

Posted June 23rd at 6:57 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Matt Will Marcy see hail ,the pumpkins just came up and i don't want them to get damaged like the one last year did with the golf ball size hail i saw

Posted June 23rd at 6:57 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Cells NW of Syracuse have a little hail with them. It looks like there trying to head this way.... see if they make it.

Posted June 23rd at 6:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

Reports from the previous cell:

Canastota [Madison Co, NY] amateur radio reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 06:12 PM EDT --
Oneida [Madison Co, NY] public reports HAIL of penny size (U0.75 INCH) at 06:28 PM EDT --
Oneida [Madison Co, NY] public reports HAIL of nickel size (U0.88 INCH) at 06:28 PM EDT --

Posted June 23rd at 7:00 PM
Matt Lanza:

Any hail is likely with the new cell south of New Hartford. Chance of hail near the Paris Hill area shortly.

Posted June 23rd at 7:06 PM
Matt Lanza:

Up to penny size hail now possible with the storm about to move near Paris Hill toward Sauquoit and Clayville.

Posted June 23rd at 7:11 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Had light rain for about a minute with a rumble of thunder.The sun was out the whole time.

Posted June 23rd at 7:13 PM
kelly:

Matt do you think the valley will see any storms tonight?

Posted June 23rd at 7:13 PM
Matt Lanza:

Everyone should see at least some rain tonight...not sure if we're going to all see thunder though. Valley should see rain in the next 15-30 minutes.

This cell keeps splitting and refocusing. The main cell split off and a stronger one formed south of the Valley. Now a new one is forming northeast of that one IN the Valley. Prevents the storm from going severe, but makes it interesting to watch.

Posted June 23rd at 7:16 PM
Matt(Marcy):

yep that storm split just before it got to marcy

Posted June 23rd at 7:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

Storms are spreading south likely because the outflow boundary from the main storm that was trucking down the Thruway likely collided with some breezes off the higher hilltops south of the Valley.

Posted June 23rd at 7:19 PM
Becky - Whitesboro:

There is a HUGE Rainbow! I tried taking some pitures w/my digital camera but it was so big I couldn't get it all in! Most beautful rainbow I ever saw. It was so bringht against the dark clark clouds! Still some thunder in the distance! Looks like the storm went to our south! We got a brief shower but feels very sticky out now! I Will down load the pictures!

Posted June 23rd at 7:23 PM
Matt Lanza:

Dime to penny size hail a safe bet between Clayville and Cassville.

Posted June 23rd at 7:25 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rainbow is absolutely brilliant!

Posted June 23rd at 7:31 PM
Elaine:

It's huge I just got some photos of it!

Posted June 23rd at 7:33 PM
Ted (Ilion):

Dime size hail here in Ilion right now

Posted June 23rd at 7:40 PM
Matt Lanza:

Thank you Ted!

Posted June 23rd at 7:41 PM
Josh Ilion:

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN ILION!

Posted June 23rd at 7:41 PM
Matt Lanza:

Two concerns for hail: One near Cedarville, the other over Ilion and moving toward Herkimer.

Posted June 23rd at 7:43 PM
Matt Lanza:

Expecting a warning to possibly go momentarily.

Posted June 23rd at 7:44 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Cell heading for Dolgeville is flagging .75 inch hail

Posted June 23rd at 7:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
- UNTIL 845 PM EDT
- AT 742 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  ILION...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HERKIMER BY 750 PM EDT...
  6 MILES NORTH OF JORDANVILLE BY 755 PM EDT...
  LITTLE FALLS BY 810 PM EDT...
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

Posted June 23rd at 7:46 PM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

Wow, awesome rainbow, one of the better ones I've ever seen, thanks for the heads up! Lots of distant thunder here but just a light sprinkle and sun.

Posted June 23rd at 7:47 PM
jessie:

i hear ya on that one the hail is between dime and quarter size also i just got a thunderstorm warning for herkimer county till 845 is this how long this storm is going to last

Posted June 23rd at 7:48 PM
Laura (West Winfield):

Pea size hail here up on the hill, rain and wind and it's over just like that...

Posted June 23rd at 7:48 PM
Tim (herkimer):

pea sized hail in herkimer

Posted June 23rd at 7:48 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Had some rain here a little while ago and some thunder, nothing else though, see the skys clearing out here for a little while. Keeping an eye on the stuff to our south.

Posted June 23rd at 7:50 PM
Josh (Ilion):

The hail with that storm was crazy. Quarter and penny size for a minute or so...then down to pea size mixed with heavy rainfall.

Posted June 23rd at 7:52 PM
Matt Lanza:

Also just got a quarter size report in Herkimer

Posted June 23rd at 7:52 PM
jessie:

so what do we think of the one out by syracuse is it going to get worse or what it looks like it is getting smaller but thats just me!!

OH yea my boys ages 3 and 8 thought it was great to see hail this is the second time my son (8) has seen it and he thought it was great

Posted June 23rd at 7:53 PM
Jodi ~ (Ilion):

Here are some pictures of the hail from 10 minutes ago and two of the pictures have a quarter next to them...

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f169/smknos/Picture049.jpg
http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f169/smknos/Picture050.jpg
http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f169/smknos/Picture051.jpg

Posted June 23rd at 7:53 PM
Jodi ~ (Ilion):

My mistake... one has a quarter, one has a dime.

Posted June 23rd at 7:54 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jodi, Thank you!

Posted June 23rd at 7:54 PM
Adam:

I'll second the quarter sized hail in Herkimer.

Posted June 23rd at 7:54 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Jodi: Nice pictures

Posted June 23rd at 7:55 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Becky, I think that cell is going to miss me to the south. It is as calm as could be here. Little Falls should get hit with this one.

Posted June 23rd at 7:56 PM
Matt Lanza:

Hail core has come down with that storm, and looks to pass just south of Little Falls..doubt we see anymore quarter reports. Cedarville is another story.

Posted June 23rd at 7:58 PM
jessie:

So any thoughts on the one in syracuse or what guys

Posted June 23rd at 7:59 PM
kelly:

Matt for the storm warning that we just got is that for the storm that already passed us here in Mohawk or is there more coming?

Posted June 23rd at 7:59 PM
Matt Lanza:

Kelly: No, what you got is what was warned. Everything else is pretty benign for the moment.

Posted June 23rd at 8:00 PM
Sandy (West Schuyler):

That rainbow was beautiful and it was a double rainbow for a bit!

Posted June 23rd at 8:00 PM
kelly:

Thanks Matt just wondering I just got my warning and the storm or hail already passed us bye.

Posted June 23rd at 8:03 PM
Matt Lanza:

Pea to dime size hail possible along the Thruway near Little Falls now...the part of the storm south of the Valley has weakened.

Posted June 23rd at 8:04 PM
Matt Lanza:

Round 2 is waiting in the wings in Onondaga and Madison Counties...frankly, none of them look great right now, but the M.O. of the storms tonight has been to pulse up real fast and weaken.

Posted June 23rd at 8:06 PM
Teri (deerfield):

Sat on the top of Smith Hill for a bit to appreciate the rainbow. Could it get any better? Watching the lightning in the same system that is providing the rainbow, the warmth of the sun setting in a blue sky on your back... song birds, breeze..... For me, thats what its all about.

Posted June 23rd at 8:10 PM
Patty:

Matt:sent you over a picture of Herkimer hail

Posted June 23rd at 8:11 PM
Josh (Ilion):

What about the stuff down by Ithaca? That seems to be tracking Northeast. Is that round 3?

Posted June 23rd at 8:12 PM
Matt Lanza:

Josh: Those could be Otsego and Chenango's storms. Next round just moving into Madison is warned.

Posted June 23rd at 8:15 PM
Matt Lanza:

Strongest storm of the night so far moving into western Madison County. We'll see how long it holds.

Posted June 23rd at 8:19 PM
Josh (Ilion):

Healthy looking cell by Cazenovia.

Posted June 23rd at 8:19 PM
Josh (Ilion):

sorry...meant to say southeast of Caz

Posted June 23rd at 8:21 PM
Josh (Ilion):

I'm an idio...southWEST of Caz. I'll stop typing now. Geez...

Posted June 23rd at 8:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

And now the Madison storm is pulsing back down a bit.

Posted June 23rd at 8:28 PM
jessie:

So is the one thats coming for us bad or like the one we just had here in the valley we are sitting at 63 degrees with a dew point of 61 at humidity at 92%

Posted June 23rd at 8:29 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jessie: As has been the case with all the storms tonight, we just don't know...they flare up, they weaken. It depends on when and where. Read along and you'll get your answers if something big is coming.

Posted June 23rd at 8:30 PM
jessie:

thanks matt i will keep an eye ont he sky and on the blog

Posted June 23rd at 8:35 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Matt, what do you think of that one in Cortland county? Seems to be holding together for now. Round 3?

Posted June 23rd at 8:38 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Did not get any hail from that last storm. Some pretty good rains, a gully washer type rain. And a little wind 30 MPH max. Let's see what round two has for us?

Posted June 23rd at 8:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

It looks to me like these storms may have peaked in unison and may now begin weakening. We've lost sunlight, so there's probably cause for it, for sure. I think we'll have rain and thunder, with maybe small hail here...especially south of the Thruway...through 11 PM.

Posted June 23rd at 8:46 PM
stevo (rome):

well you can move to rome and have no worries of severe weather. lol what a joke!!!!!!!!! they should add to those storm warnings "EXCEPT ROME" lol

Posted June 23rd at 8:48 PM
Matt Lanza:

Penny size hail almost likely just NW of Hartwick right now..this one flared up fast.

Posted June 23rd at 8:52 PM
Matt Lanza:

Hail product on radar for that storm is identical to ones that have produced quarter size hail tonight....just north of Hartwick, heading into Cooperstown...pulsing back down, but I would say dime size hail is a good bet near Cooperstown in about 5-10 mins.

Posted June 23rd at 8:53 PM
Matt Lanza:

Likely penny size hail just west of Norwich right now. Could see a short fused warning for that cell.

Posted June 23rd at 9:00 PM
Matt Lanza:

Hail should be moving into Norwich shortly

Posted June 23rd at 9:04 PM
Matt Lanza:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
904 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL CHENANGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  WESTERN OTSEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
- UNTIL 945 PM EDT
- AT 903 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  NORWICH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NORWICH AND NORTH NORWICH BY 910 PM EDT...
  NEW BERLIN AND GILBERTSVILLE BY 935 PM EDT...
  MORRIS AND PITTSFIELD BY 945 PM EDT...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING
OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

Posted June 23rd at 9:08 PM
Mohawk Valley:

That line seems to be holding up well.

Posted June 23rd at 9:12 PM
Matt Lanza:

Would love some reports from Chenango or Otsego viewers if you have them!

Posted June 23rd at 9:15 PM
Jodi ~ (Ilion):

Just noticed on the radar that the storm that was by Syracuse about an hour ago was moving southeast and then the storm by Cortland was moving northeast and they kinda met in the middle. How does that happen with them being so close and going in different directions? I haven't ever noticed that happening before.

Posted June 23rd at 9:23 PM
jessie:

there is a lot of red heading toward the valley. what are we looking at there? is it going to be bad? it does not look good on the radar.

Posted June 23rd at 9:25 PM
jessie (ilion):

JODI I was going to say the same thing that is kinda different i think by looking at my weather bug radar it looks kinda nasty hope its not to bad

Posted June 23rd at 9:26 PM
Mohawk Valley:

Does that mean something bad when storms come together like that? Do they strengthen each other? Or does one just absorb the other?

Posted June 23rd at 9:32 PM
Matt Lanza:

Seeing this area of thunderstorms develop into a complex that will continue E or ENE toward Albany. This may graze areas west of Utica and north of the Thruway with some rain, but likely all you'll notice is some distant thunder perhaps. However, areas east of Utica, these should stay in tact to at least bring some rain, probably some thunder. One or two could flare up real fast (like the one in Chenango did), but most of the heavy activity will stay south of the Valley. Still need to keep an eye on things here.

Posted June 23rd at 9:32 PM
jessie:

so you think that there will be more pop-up storms tonite? also how bad does tomorrow look my son has school trip to syracuse zoo tomorrow and i dont want him to get stuck in the rain or storms thanks

Posted June 23rd at 9:35 PM
Matt Lanza:

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN OTSEGO COUNTY...

AT 933 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SOUTH NEW BERLIN...MOVING EAST AT 26 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH EDMESTON AROUND 940 PM EDT...
MORRIS...NEW LISBON AND PITTSFIELD AROUND 945 PM EDT...

Posted June 23rd at 9:37 PM
Bob Jones:

Jessie...wrap your son in bubble wrap and stay in doors!!!!

Posted June 23rd at 9:37 PM
Matt (Utica):

Is there any way Bob can be blocked from this forum? He is an annoying troll... not to mention insensitive and as immature as a 2 year old.

Posted June 23rd at 9:41 PM
stevo (rome):

If I keep up my whining I might get banned from this blog!

Posted June 23rd at 9:43 PM
stevo (rome):

I heart Bob Jones!!!

Posted June 23rd at 9:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

Hail producer near Morris now.

Posted June 23rd at 9:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
945 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  CENTRAL OTSEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
- UNTIL 1030 PM EDT
- AT 941 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  MORRIS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WALTON AND HARVARD BY 950 PM EDT...
  LAURENS AND COLCHESTER BY 955 PM EDT...
  HARTWICK AND DOWNSVILLE BY 1000 PM EDT...
  MILFORD AND COOPERSTOWN JCT BY 1010 PM EDT...
  EAST MEREDITH AND DELHI BY 1015 PM EDT...
  MARYLAND AND BOWERSTOWN BY 1020 PM EDT...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING
OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

Posted June 23rd at 9:49 PM
Matt Lanza:

Morris to Milford, Penny to quarter size hail is likely.

Posted June 23rd at 9:51 PM
Matt Lanza:

That includes Laurens...best hail producer I've seen tonight.

Posted June 23rd at 9:51 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Hey Matt, is there any way we can access that feature you guys use in the studio or is that only for the meteorology team

Posted June 23rd at 9:55 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: So far it's just for us. I think if you sign up for the premium weather you get something similar.

Posted June 23rd at 9:57 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Matt, one more question. When I look at the storm table on Nexrad's site (that part that says Dbz) what does that mean its right next to the name of the storm

Posted June 23rd at 9:59 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Thanks

Posted June 23rd at 10:01 PM
Lori:

Just heard thunder again in Herkimer. Another flare up of storms?

Posted June 23rd at 10:03 PM
Josh (Ilion):

Looks like a big mess on radar heading our way. Doesn't look severe, though.

Posted June 23rd at 10:04 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: DBZ is basically measuring the "noise" the radar "hears." For instance, a 30 DBZ storm is significantly weaker than a 60 DBZ storm. Usually if you see 50 or higher, that's a pretty nasty storm.

Posted June 23rd at 10:05 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Lori, It's not so much as a flare up as it is the remnants of the storms over the I-81 corridor and to the east. That big complex of storms

Posted June 23rd at 10:07 PM
jessie (ilion):

hear some thunder right now out in the distance right now it does not look like it is right on top of us yet so temps at 61 dew points at 60 and humidity at 96%

Posted June 23rd at 10:08 PM
Matt(Marcy):

So when i look at the nexrad radar right now the storm just about to go south of Cooperstown which is 66 Dbz....That's pretty nasty...right anyways Thanks!

Posted June 23rd at 10:09 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: You bet...that's why I am fairly confident someone got large hail from it. Also, it's taking on a bowing structure and could now be producing strong winds. DBZs are only one thing we look at.

Posted June 23rd at 10:14 PM
Matt(Marcy):

And the part that says VIL.....that means???

Posted June 23rd at 10:16 PM
jessie:

what storm is this you guys are talking about in comments 276 and 277 and we have some thunder here in ilion

Posted June 23rd at 10:17 PM
Matt(Marcy):

The one just south of Cooperstown... worst one on the map tonight

Posted June 23rd at 10:19 PM
jessie:

oh oki though so but was not sure wanted to make sure though also do you guys think these storms will be it for the night thanks again

Posted June 23rd at 10:21 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Couple more cells firing out in the Finger Lakes.Finally got a nice steady rain here with some thunder.

Posted June 23rd at 10:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: VIL is "vertically integrated liquid." It's a radar derived product that estimates how likely hail is in a storm. The higher the number (along with some other things), the more likely hail is. I've started to learn the art of using this product. Not all high VILs will get you hail...similarly, not all low VILs WON'T get you hail...there's a lot to it.

Posted June 23rd at 10:23 PM
Becky - Whitesboro:

there's a little thunder, rain and a few flashes of lightning!
Looks a little nasty to the south of us! Has this severe weather we've had the past few weeks normal for our area? I don't remember so many severe storms like this!

Posted June 23rd at 10:28 PM
Matt Lanza:

Penny size hail near Schenevus...

Becky: I'll probably talk about this tomorrow night or Wednesday night. This is not normal. In fact, New York State probably has close to 250 hail reports (if not more) this year so far alone....the most I could find in any given year since 1998 was just over 300 (I need to look back further). We'll go over this later.

Severe weather event evolving into a very interesting looking rain event as it lifts east and north and out of here. It almost looks like a mini cyclone lifting out. Looks to me like a small scale area of low pressure at the surface, or something similar about 20,000 feet up. This area should continue to look pretty cool over the next couple hours as it lifts out.

Posted June 23rd at 10:39 PM
Becky - Whitesboro:

Hey Matt -
Thanks for the info, I look forward to hearing your report and findings when you look back further! It's all very interesting!
Now that thunder has stopped I need to get my little one to bed! You all do a great job!

Posted June 23rd at 10:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

At least 16 hail reports in Upstate today... including 2 quarter size (1") reports in Otsego County (E of Morris and Mount Vision)

Posted June 23rd at 11:05 PM
Matt Lanza:

Thanks to everyone who sent or posted photos. I didn't have time to show them all, but I would have liked to!

Posted June 23rd at 11:24 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Quite the nite!.... The amount of hail storms this year hail has been unbelievable....As for up here, We did not even get a rain drop all day.

Posted June 23rd at 11:40 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

should say....Has been Unbelievable.

Posted June 23rd at 11:42 PM
sno-x (westmo):

Jessie wow for real relax and read the posts! your answers are all there. every time a storm is comming you type franticly like its the end of the world or something. Im pretty quiet durning the summer months on the blog but i do read it everyday and during stormy days your just plain old annoying. RELAX WOMEN!!! i know i sound rude but common oh and P.S I HEART BOB JONES ALSO

Posted June 24th at 12:04 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Hail is one thing that all chasers face. When Ive chased storms, and got to close to the core I typically started my sentences with #&%#. A typical sentence would be ( $&#& what was my approach angle? or #$%&# lost my windshield!). With all the hail we�ve been seeing. I thought I would add my two cents on the subject. Because, Ive noticed a few of you are starting to chase these storms. I have been in the bears cage a couple times. I know from personal experience (a few broken windshields) that hail is dangerous. So, I tried to learn everything I could about it. Thunderstorms can grow to be many miles high. The base of the storm can be fairly warm; whereas 10,000 � 15,000 feet up it will be at the freezing level. We have seen quite a few cell 25,000 35,000 feet this year. At those attitudes the air will be well below freezing. It�s this upper 75% of the storm that makes the big hail. Just about everyone knows that thunderstorms have updrafts and downdrafts. The taller the cell the stronger these updrafts and downdrafts will be. Hail starts in these updrafts; it can start its lifecycle as dirt, dust, other tiny particles . The updrafts also bring huge amounts of moisture into the storm. All of the debris act as an base that water can bond to. As it gets bigger it turns into a raindrop. As the updraft carries the raindrop higher, it will collect even more water droplets. Therefore the larger the drop the easer it is to collect other raindrops. So far, only raindrops have been produced. To produce ice, the droplets must continue traveling upward beyond the freezing level. At this level, it is possible to have solid particles. The higher it goes the bigger it becomes. However gravity must win out eventually. ... it falls back toward the ground, still collecting more mass on its way. I learned a few years ago about a thing called dry and wet hail. Dry hail forms in areas of the storm that are very cold at least -40F the hailstone has a very hard dry coating and keeps attracting other dry particles. Whereas so called wet hail forms in temperature between -39F and 0F. Wet hail involves something called latent heat. The only way I can explain it is when you melt the ice, heat must be removed from the environment. Also when the water becomes ice this energy is released. The amount of energy required to make this change is called the latent heat. Anyway this cycle of going up and down continues until the hailstone is too heavy to stay aloft. Hailstones can weigh from a few ounces to a few pounds. And can fall at speed greater than 80 mph. (As they say that will leave a mark) This is where Matts entry on thunderstorm development come in. and why it is so important. If you can identify the areas of the thunderstorm. Updraft, downdraft, and rear flanking lines and so on. You know where the hail will form and therefore be able to avoid it. It is also important to point out that large hail can be a precursor to tornado development. So when near hail keep your eyes open.

Posted June 24th at 2:19 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Last year was quite above normal for hail as well around here.I think we even had some good hail events in July.But otherwise I can't remember this many hail reports either.Especially along with hardly any wind reports to go along with it.Looks like we might do it all over again Fri-Sun.

Posted June 24th at 7:09 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Actually Thur-Sat would be the severe threat days.That looks to be the best timeline according to SPC.

Posted June 24th at 7:34 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Matt- No Hail here in Sherburne last night, but we did have around 30-40 minutes of extremely heavy rain (the guage couldnt keep up) and one heck of a thunder and lightning show.

Posted June 24th at 7:45 AM
Matt Lanza:

Well, no rest for the weary, as SPC has us pinned on Thursday and Saturday for more severe weather potential, and the Thursday one looks extremely interesting right now. Obviously, a new post coming tonight.

Becky: Great post...half the reason I worry about chasing sometimes is hail. I can't afford car repairs at the moment!

Jeff: Thanks for the response! NWS verified it thankfully...I was concerned they were going to get no reports from a storm I was certain had severe hail.

Posted June 24th at 10:27 AM
Jmd (Fonda):

Bravo, Becky! Great post! (R U subbing for Matt?)

Posted June 24th at 10:30 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Got some heavy cells blowing up in Oneida County.Not sure if any have thunder.

Posted June 24th at 11:12 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Thanks...Like I said, Ive noticed some people are starting to chase these storms....I don�t know everyones chase experience....and I don�t want anyone to take hail lightly.... As they say knowledge is power.

Posted June 24th at 11:46 AM
Bo (Taberg):

Becky, thank you for the vivid description of making hail. Amazing what starts out as a mere speck of dust can grow to threaten safety and elicit expletive deleteds from you finding yourself too cozy with the core. I took the leap and mowed hay yesterday afternoon, hoping it dries enough to bale it tomorrow, Wednesday. Looks OK so far and thanks to you all for helping me thread the weather needle. Getting greedy, but wondering if I might mow some more today for gathering on Thursday or Friday? The old bird in the hand versus 2 or 3 in the bush!

Posted June 24th at 11:53 AM
Working in Utica:

More severe weather this week....ugh! It seems like I can't do anything outdoors because of a significant storm moving through. By the time I get home from work, the sunny skies are gone. It is starting to weigh on me! In the 20 years I have been here, I don't recall anything so active like we have seen the last month or so. Kind of worrisome...

Posted June 24th at 12:28 PM
Working in Utica:

...at least it keeps the weather blog interesting. Everyone seems so smart with this stuff.

Posted June 24th at 12:30 PM
Matt Lanza:

Bo: Tomorrow and potentially Friday would be your days. Thursday morning we could have a pretty big complex of storms come through and there could be more Thursday afternoon, depending on the situation. More on that tonight!

Posted June 24th at 1:10 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt: It sure looks like Wednesday night and Thursday is setting up for possible Mesoscale Convective System development; and Saturday looks to be a very busy day. SPC is already saying the severe storm threat is at least 30%

Posted June 24th at 1:14 PM
Bill Kardas:

It's amazing how much different the weather pattern behaves depending on season. We've been stuck in a trough for the most part over the past week plus, and we've seen near to below temperatures, decent sunshine, but scattered thunderstorms. Had this of been winter, we'd be in deep you know what with lake effect. We probably wouldn't see the sun at all either for the whole week.

Posted June 24th at 1:35 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Were getting a heavy downpour at this time

Posted June 24th at 1:41 PM
Bill Kardas:

Looks like 90% of these showers are caused by terrain. There's a line that lines up perfectly with the fringe of the Adirondacks that's moving through Herkimer County. The Valley has lots of sun.

Posted June 24th at 1:47 PM
Bill Kardas:

Western NY is in the clear. As we head into the afternoon, some drier air and subsidence (sinking air) with high pressure to the west should move in and squash these showers.

Posted June 24th at 1:49 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

There's a lot of lightning with those storms east of Albany.

Bill: Enjoy the sun..... No sun up here :)

Posted June 24th at 2:01 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Had a brief shower here - southern fringes of what Beck was getting up North - sun is trying to come back out now.

Posted June 24th at 2:22 PM
star:

no rain here in rome lots of cloud cover tho and lookin kinda dark off into the distant

Posted June 24th at 2:30 PM
Tim (Salisbury):

Thunderstorm moved in about 12:45 brief heavy downpour. Also lightnng stike came through phone line burning up surge protector , phone line,phone, & answering machine!

Posted June 24th at 2:44 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Tim: Sorry to hear that.

Posted June 24th at 2:53 PM
jessie:

well its gotten really nice out kinda windy but its a nice cool breeze so are we going to get hit with these storms or what we are sitting at 79 degrees with 56% humidity and a dew point of 56

Posted June 24th at 2:55 PM
Tim (salisbury):

Thanks Becky. This happens once or twice a year here since I moved in 9 yrs. ago. I have had verizon out om many occasions to find out reason why. They are totally stumped! Only comes through phone lines. That is why I get a little testy hearing people wishing for severe weather!

Posted June 24th at 3:04 PM
Becky( West Leyden):

Jessie; Like Bill said in post #308 the rain should move out later.

Posted June 24th at 3:04 PM
Tim (Salisbury:

Any update on how Sunday will be? We are throwing a Graduation party for my daughter. Total washout? Severe storms? A few days ago Bill said it would be unsettled.

Posted June 24th at 3:09 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Tim: Lightning can have a mind of its own....Sometimes its hard to remember that severe weather can have dire consequences.

Posted June 24th at 3:13 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Matt or Bill or Jill, not to be pushy, because I know how busy you all are but um.....are you going to put up another entry.But if you're all too busy thats ok Thanks

Posted June 24th at 3:15 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: Tonight.

Posted June 24th at 3:32 PM
jessie:

we just had a dowm pour here in ilion was kinda nice

Posted June 24th at 3:36 PM
Becky - Whitesboro:

I see after reading many posts for this weeks forcast into the weekend that severe weather is up to 30%. It almost seems like severe weather is now pretty much expected when we have hot and humid days! And by Friday looks like we should be near 85. It's too bad that severe weather will most likely effect most or parts of our area w/pop up storms for many graduating and many many out door graduation parties this weekend! We have 3 alone between Sat and Sunday!
Have a great afternoon!
Becky

Posted June 24th at 4:04 PM
Becky(West Leyden):

Looks like there is a good chance for a few supercell's Thursday.

Posted June 24th at 4:22 PM
Laura (working in Clinton):

Was looking at the latest hazardous weather outlook and it was curious to see that Skywarn spotter activation may be needed Wednesday, Thursday and through the whole weekend. That does not happen often around here. Was also wondering what the threat of flash flooding would be with this unsettled pattern? Some areas have seen some decent rains the last few days.

Posted June 24th at 4:22 PM
jessie:

LAURA-What is a Skywarn spotter?

Posted June 24th at 4:31 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Jessie: A Skywarn Spotter is a trained individual who goes out to watch for severe weather. Their like eyes on the ground for the NWS.

Posted June 24th at 4:35 PM
jessie:

thank you

Posted June 24th at 4:37 PM
Matt Lanza:

Skywarn activation won't be needed tomorrow, as we should have wall to wall sunshine (or so it appears!). Thursday is a tricky forecast day. Then the weekend is very much up in the air. Thursday, Saturday and Sunday could all have some severe weather...or nothing at all. We'll see. More tonight.

Posted June 24th at 4:39 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Sno-x: great post.... Spotting is a very underappreciated endeavor.

Posted June 24th at 4:53 PM
Laura (working in Clinton):

Matt: I should have said that the spotters might be needed late Wednesday according to the NWS!
Jessie: The spotter workshops are interesting and give you some weather basics. Supposed to be a many eyes on the skies kind of thing. Once you have a spotter number they put you into some kind of database with your location if you make a storm report.

Posted June 24th at 5:08 PM
jessie:

SNO-X- thank you so much for that explanation i appreciates it very much!!!

Posted June 24th at 6:43 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Actually, I have used my Skywarn capability more during the winter months for snowfall reports than I have during Summer, lol! I think I sent one report in last June of pea size hail and a few rainfall reports as well, but not much for severe weather. I bet if I lived in Otsego county, I would be on the phone with NWS all the time! They always seem to get blasted down there. 75% of the storms I have observed from town were almost always along or South of the thruway. I guess I should be glad I haven't had to deal with the hail damage. I have 30 windows in my house with around 25 of them brand new, and golf ball size hail would sure do some damage!

Posted June 24th at 6:55 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Typhoon Fengshen, devastated the Philippines. From the reports Ive seen it has left more than 1,000 people dead or missing and caused damage estimated at more than $96 million.

Posted June 24th at 7:35 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Another thing that will be interesting this week is the heavy rain potential in eastern Iowa.Models are spitting out 4-8" of rain in that area over the next several days.Hope alot of the water has receeded or there could be some big trouble once again.

Posted June 24th at 8:06 PM
Matt Lanza:

Working on a new entry..may take a bit, but compiling some numbers.

Posted June 24th at 9:34 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Thanks Matt

Posted June 24th at 10:26 PM
Matt Lanza:

New entry up!

Posted June 24th at 10:28 PM

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