Weekend Preview

Posted August 19th, 2010 by Adam Musyt. 67 comments

A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed late today in a warm and relatively humid air mass.  A cold front is situated across Southern Ontario, Michigan and Wisconsin this evening.  The front will cross CNY tonight but any showers should be brief, few, and far between.  We'll see temperatures fall back into the 50's by later tonight.

 

By early Friday any showers will be pushing east of CNY as the front edges east and a dry and pleasant Canadian air mass moves in.  Temperatures at 850 mb Friday will only be around 12 degrees Celsius - and that will translate to daytime highs in the mid 70's for the Mohawk Valley.  Plenty of sunshine is expected.  With very low humidity and a bit of a westerly breeze the weather change will feel refreshing.

 

For Friday Night winds will diminish under clear skies.  With a dry air mass in place temperatures will fall quickly after sunset.  Bring a sweatshirt or light jacket if you are going to be going outdoors Friday Night.  By early Saturday morning temperatures will fall to near 50 for the city of Utica - with outlying areas in the 40's.

 

Saturday will feature some sunshine.  Cloud cover will begin to increase later in the day as an upper level storm system approaches from the west.  As winds turn around to a "return flow" southerly direction, 850 mb will climb to around 15 or 16, suggesting lower to middle 80's for highs.  Humidity levels on Saturday will be comfortable for the most part - but dew points will likely climb above 60 later in the day.

 

The storm system will arrive by Sunday with some periods of rain and the chance of a few thunderstorms.  Saturday appears to be the nicer of the two weekend weather days at this point.  Looking ahead, after a midweek warm up there are some signs of a hint of Fall on some of our long-range computer models by the end of August.

 

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  1. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like some heavy cells are coming off the lake. Getting some very heavy rain right now. No thunder.

    Posted August 19th at 9:59 PM

  2. Adam Musyt:

    We just had a brief downpour here at the station.

    Posted August 19th at 11:23 PM

  3. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It’s starting to look like fall around here.Both my neighbors maple trees have red and yellow leaves already. They change early every year for some reason. This upper level system coming up is really squashing are warm and humid chances. Last week at this time it looked like a ridge was going to build and keep things above normal. Hopefully its just delaying things.

    Posted August 20th at 10:35 AM

  4. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Picked up 0.38” from the few downpours lastnight.

    Posted August 20th at 10:39 AM

  5. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    New forecast data is coming in, and Sunday’s outlook continues to look bleak for outdoor events. A cutoff storm will park itself right over CNY and give us steady rain in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. The individual models are different in terms of precipitation timing and intensity, but the overall pattern is similar.

    Posted August 20th at 11:45 AM

  6. Gary( Paris Station):

    what kind of time frame are we looking at for Sunday. Is it going to start in the morning or in the afternoon as we have some plans in the morning.Just thought I would ask.

    Posted August 20th at 12:35 PM

  7. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah looks like a washout just about. Looking like a widespread 2-3” of rain. I guess we could use it.

    Posted August 20th at 12:37 PM

  8. Bob ( Cooperstown ):

    54 degrees 91 % Humidity Yikes, feels colder than that. Rob is right, I raked leaves tonight. We were planning for a nice Sunday up at Boonville for Woodsmen Days.

    Posted August 20th at 11:04 PM

  9. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like the 12z’s are confirming a major soaker. Get your rain gauges out and ready. There could even be some flooding issues as well. I don’t think we’ve seen a widespread storm of this intensity all summer.

    Posted August 21st at 11:55 AM

  10. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Wow the GFS hits the Adirondacks hard with this storm. Put it this way, if this was late November, they would be in for 6-7 foot snowstorm!

    Posted August 21st at 12:13 PM

  11. Sar:

    Adam—are we expecting severe weather tonight or tomorrow?

    Posted August 21st at 1:25 PM

  12. Just Wondering?:

    IS it True , That for Every Inch of Rain ,,Is a foot of snow?

    Posted August 21st at 4:04 PM

  13. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yep, or at least on average it is. Usually our ratios for winter average from10-12:1.
    HPC has us in a slt risk for flash flooding…although were going to need close to 4” to acvheive this.

    Posted August 21st at 4:30 PM

  14. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Severe weather does not look to be a threat. Main concern looks to be heavy rain, with the heaviest looking to be up near the St. Lawerence Valley/Watertown. Our in house models are spitting out between 1-3” of rainfall for the viewing area. Up north, they may be looking for 4+”

    Posted August 21st at 4:44 PM

  15. MG(Point Rock):

    Looking at the days 1-2 qpf forecast issued by HPC, they seem to bee expecting around 3.5” for this area by Monday 8PM.

    Posted August 21st at 5:40 PM

  16. Gordon (Northwestern):

    High at my house today was 67.8 degrees. Missed the forecast high by about 12-15 degrees. Hope we pick up some good rain late tonight and tomorrow, as my well is starting to get a little low.

    Posted August 21st at 7:42 PM

  17. fairfield:

    Jill, what is the time range for that amount of rainfall?

    Posted August 21st at 7:51 PM

  18. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Rainfall amounts are through Monday am. A cell through ne Oneida county has heavy rain with it.

    Posted August 21st at 8:04 PM

  19. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Rainfall amounts are through Monday am. A cell through ne Oneida county has heavy rain with it.

    Posted August 21st at 8:04 PM

  20. fairfield:

    thanks jill, we’ll keep an eye out 67/64 here yet, is there much wind with it?

    Posted August 21st at 8:08 PM

  21. Rob (Whitesboro):

    There’s thunder with that cell as well. Saw about 5 CG strikes on my way home.

    Posted August 21st at 8:34 PM

  22. MG(Point Rock):

    Gordon, I’m surprised that your well is low — I’ve had almost 8 inches of rain in June, over 6 inches in July, and almost 3 inches so far in August — no shortage of rain this summer, at least up here.
    By the way, here’s a site that monitors ground water from a USGS well in Woodgate. It shows that groundwater was way below normal this spring, but has recovered to almost normal.
    http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/AWLSites.asp?S=433112075091501&ncd=rtn

    Posted August 21st at 9:26 PM

  23. Jill Reale (Utica):

    A flood watch has been issued until 10PM for Lewis, Northern Herkimer, and Hamilton Counties.

    Posted August 22nd at 9:28 AM

  24. Gordon (Northwestern):

    MG, My well was doing good to about two weeks ago. The Water level in it has dropped about 30” in the last two weeks. I have about 20” of water in it until it goes dry. I will start nursing it now. I had about 5” of rain in June, just over 4” in July, but up until yesterday evening I had only had 1.21” in August. I hardly ever get any Thunderstorms of any strength aroung my house. The last time my well went completely dry was about 14 years ago. As of 12:30 today I have had .62” of rain since yesterday evening.

    Posted August 22nd at 12:56 PM

  25. ROCK:

    ANYONE KNOW IF THE RAIN IS GONNA LET UP SOMETIME SOON. MY SON IS IN THE DEMO DERBY AT HERKIMER TONIGHT BUT I THINK IT MIGHT BE A WASH OUT!

    Posted August 22nd at 2:06 PM

  26. fairfield:

    i’m up to 1.26” since midnight

    Posted August 22nd at 2:09 PM

  27. Mel (Westernville):

    Dumped an inch out of the center of the CoCoRAHS rain gauge – coming down too hard to check what was in the overflow.

    Posted August 22nd at 2:17 PM

  28. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Since morning we have gotten exactly 2.5 inches of rain.

    Just wondering if anyone around has gotten near that amount.

    According to you Jill, This isn’t over with yet.

    Posted August 22nd at 3:37 PM

  29. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Rain is not going to let up anytime soon. As we head into the overnight, it will become less widespread but we will still see our fair share of showers.

    Posted August 22nd at 4:29 PM

  30. MG(Point Rock):

    I just measured a storm total of 2.08”

    Posted August 22nd at 4:30 PM

  31. fairfield:

    up to 1.52”

    Posted August 22nd at 4:33 PM

  32. MG(Point Rock):

    It’s now getting quite breezy — what with the saturated soil, some of my corn and sunflower plants are starting to fall

    Posted August 22nd at 4:44 PM

  33. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Anyone along the Mohawk River and West Canada Creek should prepare for flooding NOW. Both are forecast to reach or exceed flood stage.

    Posted August 22nd at 5:13 PM

  34. Chris (HP Weather Observer):

    Had nearly 2” of rain today with moderate rain still falling. Been windy here most of the day as well. We could use the rain as were still have some drought conditions around.. Cant imagin if this were winter time how much snow we would talking about, but I would have to say we would be measuring in feet I would have to guess.. Owe well hopes for what might have been..

    Posted August 22nd at 5:59 PM

  35. Nick(West Winfield):

    I have measured a total of 2.00 inches as a storm total so far….

    Posted August 22nd at 6:02 PM

  36. fairfield:

    glad i’m up on higher ground, wonder if the state is watching the bridge in middleville, haven’t been out since just before noon, i’m up to 1.77” so far winds averaging 17 mph

    Posted August 22nd at 6:12 PM

  37. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Flood Warning has been issued for Southern Herkimer, Western Fulton, Western Montgomery and Southwestern Hamilton Counties until Midnight

    Posted August 22nd at 6:24 PM

  38. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Law enforcement reports widespread flooding in the Village of Dolgeville.

    Posted August 22nd at 6:30 PM

  39. fairfield:

    do you anything about Dolge ave yet

    Posted August 22nd at 6:31 PM

  40. Jill Reale (Utica):

    We have reports of 5 and 5s flooded in Little Falls, flooding in basements in Dolgeville.

    Posted August 22nd at 6:35 PM

  41. fairfield :

    Posted August 22nd at 7:00 PM

  42. fairfield:

    i do have my scanner on and it mentioned some streets that were closing in dolgeville due to flooding, i think it was part of main to spoffered, can’t quite remember, hard to hear sometimes with my 2 yr old around me

    Posted August 22nd at 7:02 PM

  43. MG(Point Rock):

    I measured at 6:30, and had a total since last evening of 3.36” That includes 1.28” just between 4:15 and 6:30. Rain still coming down at a good clip.

    Posted August 22nd at 7:32 PM

  44. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Flood Warnings have been issued for Oneida and Madison Counties until 1AM

    Posted August 22nd at 7:34 PM

  45. fairfield:

    2” now and still steady rain

    Posted August 22nd at 7:41 PM

  46. Matt (Cold Brook):

    Just came by West Canada at Poland and it was high.Not scary high but above grass on shore by a few inches. I have 1.9 inches in rain guage since 8 am this morning.I am sure that all the run off from this will be memorable.

    Posted August 22nd at 8:03 PM

  47. Chris (HP Weather Observer):

    Still raining moderately here 2.75 inches here so far. wow what a rain event.. 9 nine creek and mohawk were running high. wouldn’t be surprised if the flats in oriskany are not flooded by monday morning and maybe some of the back yards in stittville that the nine nile creek run behind

    Posted August 22nd at 9:25 PM

  48. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    3.26” inches of rain here as of 7:15p.m. Lots of basement flooding ongoing. The East Canada is coming up quick as well.

    Posted August 22nd at 9:40 PM

  49. fairfield :

    2.56”

    Posted August 22nd at 9:56 PM

  50. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    East Canada Creek is raging right now! Mohawk River at Little Falls is now forecast to crest at nearly 17ft. Record stage is 19.7ft back in June 2006.

    Posted August 22nd at 11:13 PM

  51. MG(Point Rock):

    Rain has slowed down, but not ended. I have a storm total of 4.34”, Of which 4.29 fell on today’s date. That’s the most precip on one calendar day since I started measuring, in 1985.
    Also, tree branches and wires are down between here and Lee Center, Sulphur Springs Rd is closed.

    Posted August 22nd at 11:14 PM

  52. Heather (5S between Herkimer and Little Falls):

    my husband just tried going to little falls from Herkimer way and the road is washed out he was told from German Flatts crew.. turned around and went on 5 got to Honeysuckel auto and had to turn around again and go up Burt road .

    Posted August 23rd at 12:01 AM

  53. Mj:

    5 n 5s little falls still closed go round on 5 up the hill side take rights at the stop signs brings ya back in to down town little falls

    Posted August 23rd at 12:24 AM

  54. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    East Canada Creek is the highest I have seen since the flood of 2006. Rainfall total as of midnight is at 3.67” inches.

    Posted August 23rd at 12:27 AM

  55. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Just got home…2.85” in the bucket.

    Posted August 23rd at 2:51 AM

  56. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Thanks for the rain totals! I will be using them on air this morning.

    Posted August 23rd at 3:53 AM

  57. Dave:

    Jill

    Have you heard anything on road closings this mornig?

    Posted August 23rd at 4:16 AM

  58. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    Still some light rain and wind here. 4.6” rain since the storm started. The most I have recorded here in a long time. Lucky it wasn’t snow!!

    Posted August 23rd at 5:11 AM

  59. Jill Reale (Utica):

    HERE’S A LIST OF THE CLOSURES. PART OF ROUTE FIVE JUST EAST OF LITTLE FALLS IS CLOSED. ALSO PART OF ROUTE 5-S NEAR UTICA IS CLOSED. IN THE TOWN OF LEE- ROUTE 26 IS CLOSED BETWEEN CEMETERY ROAD AND STOKES-WESTERNVILLE ROAD. PART OF ROUTE 46 IN THE TOWN OF WESTERN IS CLOSED. AND PART OF ROUTE 80 IN VAN HORNSVILLE IS CLOSED.

    Posted August 23rd at 5:19 AM

  60. Ted:

    3.76” here in Ilion in my CoCoRaHS gage.

    Posted August 23rd at 6:15 AM

  61. MG(Point Rock):

    My storm total since about 8 PM Saturday is 4.78”

    Posted August 23rd at 7:34 AM

  62. deb in hartwick:

    4.8” in hartwick…wow

    Posted August 23rd at 7:42 AM

  63. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Any reports from Northwestern Oneida County? That seems to be one of the bullseyes for the heavy rain.

    Posted August 23rd at 8:09 AM

  64. John (Ohio):

    2.01” since Sat 9pm here in Central Herkimer County

    Posted August 23rd at 8:46 AM

  65. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Picked up 3.1” here. Lakeport in Madison county reported 5.63”

    Posted August 23rd at 8:52 AM

  66. Jill Reale (Utica):

    new entry is up

    Posted August 23rd at 8:53 AM

  67. fairfield:

    ended up with2.69 last night and .17 since midnight

    Posted August 23rd at 9:20 AM

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