A quick update for this evening. We're still on target to receive a healthy dose of snow across all of Central New York. Latest computer model data is similar to what the earlier models runs have shown. New 18z runs of the NAM and GFS show about 1" of liquid equivalent of precipitation. That's a lot of moisture!
*What is the timeframe we're looking at for the snow?* - We expect snow to overspread the viewing area from southwest to northeast between 1 AM and 4 AM. Snow will become steadier and heavier during the morning hours Wednesday. The steadiest and heaviest snow will be during the daylight hours. By late evening, snow will taper to lighter and more scattered snow showers and flurries.
*How much snow are we looking at?* We expect 8"-12" of snow for much of Central New York, with perhaps lesser amounts on the order of 5"-8" for areas to the south of US Route 20.
*Thoughts and concerns*- The different computer models we use to forecast are trending toward a similar solution. While it's not exactly the same, agreement is much better than what we saw just 24 hours ago. Still, with the storm track expected to be just slightly to our south and east, there is always a concern that warmer air could intrude a few thousand feet above ground level. This would allow the precipitation to mix with or change to sleet at times. The best chance for this to take place would be areas to the south and east of the Mohawk Valley, and that's why we are calling for slightly lower total snow amounts in this area. If the storm tracks a little more to the north than we expect, this area of mixed precipitation will move with it. Similarly, should the storm track a little further to the south, the area of 8"-12" of snow will need to be adjusted accordingly.
Generally speaking, snow to water ratios are 10:1 in temperatures slightly below freezing. We are going to use this baseline to determine our snow for the Mohawk Valley and points northward. With temperatures aloft expected to be on the order of -2 or -3 degrees Celsius, it's going to cut down on the fluff factor with the storm. Had the storm tracked more to the south, that snow to ratio would have been 12:1 or 15:1. We are going to arbitrarily use 7:1 for areas south, with the idea that sleet may hold down totals. This is where our snowfall forecast numbers came from.
All in all, enough to shovel and plow, and enough to cause some travel headaches. Some school delays and closings are *possible* - but we don't like to get too deeply into that. After all, our job is to inform people of what's likely to happen so they can make the best decisions based on the information we give. It's ok to cross your fingers and toes, though kids:-) Mother Nature has woken up from her slumber (or, depending upon your point of view, decided to pick a fight with other areas besides the Tug Hill Plateau). Be careful on the roadways.
Comments
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WINTER (Forestport):
Thank you, Adam
Posted January 27th at 8:49 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Thanks adam, sounds good.. Im just happy its a day time snow storm instead of having to pull an all nighter to follow the storm..
Posted January 27th at 8:53 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Temps have droped quick, just a little while ago i was 19 now im 13..
Posted January 27th at 9:03 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Mike W: I think the best chance to see any 12 + totals will be northern and central Herkimer County and parts of the Adirondacks
Posted January 27th at 9:04 PM
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bob:
86 inches so far here in newport. i am new to this blogging not sure how it works. oh well, i guess we have room for some more snow.
Posted January 27th at 9:14 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Welcome bob! I haven‘t seen any one report from Newport in a long time, so you will be an asset to us. Regarding blogging, you will get the hang of it and will definitely get addicted if you enjoy weather!
Posted January 27th at 9:28 PM
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Laura (Paris Hill):
Thanks Adam. It’s odd that Mike W saw the tempertaure drop and I am up three degrees since 6:30 PM. What gives?
Posted January 27th at 9:29 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Laura,
Probably just local effects due to cloud cover. Clouds seem to be thickening up now. I don‘t expect much more of a temperature drop. We‘re at 18 at Griffiss now, which is where were were a few hours ago.
Posted January 27th at 9:43 PM
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Amy (Salisbury):
Adam I have to say great job with the posts and keeping us all informed… I‘ll admit I was a little partial to Matt (I think we all were on here) but you are doing awesome so far. Thank you!
Temp is 14 here.
Posted January 27th at 9:50 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Winter – No problem.
Posted January 27th at 9:51 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Amy,
Thanks. We‘re going to keep on top of it, as promised ;-)
Posted January 27th at 9:55 PM
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Chris (Holland Patent):
Ready for this next winter blast. I have 86” total here for the year so far. I am 1 mile north of rt. 365. in H.P. I will send a report in with in the am and the in the evening as well. Broad area of precip on the maps for the nation as the storm streches all the way back into central texas.
Posted January 27th at 10:01 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Season total is 188.4
Posted January 27th at 10:05 PM
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UC Hockey Fan (Utica):
Excellent!
I hope the storm totals exceed 12” here in Utica, even though I am probably one of the few.
I also like the possible storm next week. What a winter this would turn out be if we could get back into this every three day “storm” groove. Been a heck of a winter weather season thus far and I hope the remainder of which is one for the record books.
C‘mon Mother Nature lets give CNY a blast for the duration. Mainly just ‘cause, but a part of me would like to make Matt a little jealous!
P.S.
Let‘s Go UC Men‘s Hockey this weekend!!!!!!
Posted January 27th at 10:15 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
I only have 73 1/2 inches :( Becky i think i need to move up there lol.. Tom i will break my highest snowfall i ever seen in a season.. That was in 96 in nj 76 inches..
Posted January 27th at 10:40 PM
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NATE(little falls):
season total here is 79inches
Posted January 27th at 10:42 PM
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Matt (HP):
You guys have done an awesome job! Honestly better than I expected.. Sorry to be a doubter but you have def earned it.
So anyways, are we expecting any dry slots with this?
Posted January 27th at 10:43 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Mike W: Another good pick…. Salmon Hills in Redfield is at 285 :-)
Posted January 27th at 11:11 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
LOL that might be too much snow for me becky, we all have a limit lol.. Michael yea i knw and we have a 70 percent chance of atleast 8
Posted January 27th at 11:22 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Matt: I don‘t think dry slots will be an issue.
Posted January 27th at 11:22 PM
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Ben:
I really hope this nasty winter means a beautiful summer :-)
Posted January 28th at 2:41 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
The NWS in binghamton said the euro was right again and it looks like the track will be a little more west.. So there might be a better chance of a mix in the mohawk.. The only good thing is by the time the mix would come, if it comes, we would have most of the precip in the form of snow already..
Posted January 28th at 3:35 AM
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Kelly (Frankfort):
Not much has happened with this storm so far – does this mean we are gonna miss the big hit?
Posted January 28th at 4:03 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
This is just the begining.. It is snowing pretty good hear.. The NWS in albany think NW of albany will stay all snow and will recieve 8-12 inches.. So they are right on target with wktv forecast, so u better not make no changes :)
Posted January 28th at 4:20 AM
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Piseco Lake:
Light snow just started here at 4:00 a.m.
Posted January 28th at 4:23 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Good morning folks,
Good news. I don‘t see any reason to change the forecast this morning. It‘s going to be a close call, but we should stay almost all snow here in the Mohawk Valley. Keeping Adam‘s evening forecast in tact. From here on out, we‘re going to keep a very very close eye on where that sleet band is throughout the morning.
Posted January 28th at 4:40 AM
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mike:
bill or anyone.. its not as bad here in marcy like i thought it would be… is this just the beginning of it or this going to be like this all day.. probably 1-2 inches here
Posted January 28th at 4:44 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Bill binghamton said if any mix would occur it would be between 18z-21z, now im not to good with my Z time lol But wouldnt that be later tonight when most of the snow has already fallen..
Posted January 28th at 5:07 AM
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Jeff (:Port Leyden):
Just got to work in utica, roads are not to bad yet with maybe an inch or so on them. Bill glad to here that the forcast is holding tru so far. Great job guys.
Posted January 28th at 5:14 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Snowing moderate here, prob between 1/2-3/4 of an inch.. Dunt like the small crystal flakes tho..
Posted January 28th at 5:16 AM
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Jeff (Port Leyden):
Mike that time would be between 6PM to 11Pm
Posted January 28th at 5:17 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Thanks Jeff
Posted January 28th at 5:22 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Mike & Jeff,
They are using “universal time”, which is standardized using Greenwich, England. 18z is 1pm, 21z is 4pm.
Posted January 28th at 5:26 AM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
When they affix z to the end, it‘s supposed to be in GMT time, which will mean you need to subtract 5 to get our time, which would be 1pm-4pm.
Posted January 28th at 5:27 AM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
Looks like we answered at the same time!
Posted January 28th at 5:27 AM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
Mod. snow here now
Posted January 28th at 5:33 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Thanks bill and mike, well according to the Binghamton NWS that would be are best chance of mixing if we do at all, then back to snow..
Posted January 28th at 5:37 AM
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Jeff (Port Leyden):
sorry guys didn‘t realize that they used universal time.
Posted January 28th at 5:41 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Lol its fine jeff i actually thught the same thing, thats why i thought it was at night..
Posted January 28th at 5:43 AM
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WINTER (Forestport):
… 17°…¾ ’’ of snow…snowing lite fine flakes… a little windy.
Posted January 28th at 5:45 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
By 10am, the snow/sleet line should line up near the PA/New York State border. That will give us an idea on how this storm is trending, and if we need to make any tweaks to the forecast.
Posted January 28th at 5:56 AM
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WINTER (Forestport):
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
349 AM EST WED JAN 28 2009...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK TODAY...BEFORE MOVING TO COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE STORM WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO A
GOOD PART OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH
SLEET AND SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO THE TWIN
TIERS AND WESTERN CATSKILLS. A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NEW YORK.NYZ009-036-037-281700-
/O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090129T0300Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BOONVILLE...ONEIDA...UTICA...ROME
349 AM EST WED JAN 28 2009...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING.SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND TUG HILL PLATEAU
THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IS LIKELY BY THE TIME
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TO SNOW SHOWERS.Posted January 28th at 6:06 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Yea thats what albany is saying about us also, there may be brief mixing at times but they still expect 8-12 in the mohawk and 6-10 int he greater capital region..
Posted January 28th at 6:21 AM
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Randy Vitullo :
I cannot believe Utica City Schools…... Biggest storm of the season. Off to work we go….
Posted January 28th at 6:26 AM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
Randy: Blame the regents. Utica‘s hands are tied as far as delays and early take homes go, so enjoy!
Regardless of the letter the state sent out yesterday saying that the regents are not to affect closings decisions, superintendents are still taking them into effect. However, this is the weather blog, not the politics one.
Just to make this somewhat weather related, .7” of snow has fallen since 4am, almost all over a period of 30min, and we‘re now down to flurries.
Posted January 28th at 6:34 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Snowing pretty good here as u can tell by wktv radar :)
Posted January 28th at 6:38 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
So far, accumulations range between about 1”-3” across the region, but the really heavy stuff is timed to move in around 9-11AM. Road conditions are OK this morning, but will deteriorate very quickly once the heavy bands start moving in. I wouldn‘t want to be traveling this afternoon. Unfortunately, I don‘t really have a choice.
Posted January 28th at 6:44 AM
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John (Ohio):
less than 1” here so far
Posted January 28th at 6:46 AM
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heather Mohawk:
wktv didnt send txts this morning and have not updated their website for closings check news10now if you are like me and only get satalite tv and need the web to determine school closings. mod snow here and thruway seems dead this am and 5s slow to take your time and use caution when driving
Posted January 28th at 6:50 AM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
Heather: We did send text alerts this morning, I actually sent them myself. We have been having issues between the text service and cell phone services. Sorry for the issues.
Posted January 28th at 6:53 AM
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Rome:
Rome Catholic is closed but WKTV doesnt have it listed
Posted January 28th at 6:56 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Snowing moderate here, should have over 1 inch or so..
Posted January 28th at 6:57 AM
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heather:
its no biggie jill i just happened to check here and nothing updated i understand you guys are very busy just for those who are still unsure about their school and who cant get txts dont get me wrong i love the wktv news team and understand tech difficulties
Posted January 28th at 7:04 AM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
Rome: We have not gotten a phone call from Rome Catholic Schools.
Posted January 28th at 7:04 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Good morning all!!! From the quick looks I got this morning it appears that the sleet mix line is still quite far south, of course, so is the storm!!
Posted January 28th at 7:04 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Jeff H,
Don‘t let that fool you. The storm is in the process of “jumping” across the Appalachains, where it will take a hard turn to the north and east. At this point, I‘m confident you‘re still going to get sleet.
Posted January 28th at 7:07 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
The random “hole” in the radar near Binghamton is filling in as the storm approaches. No worries about that impacting us.
Posted January 28th at 7:09 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
It is definately going to be a close call, I think I will see a difference between work (in Norwich) and my house in Sherburne. It will be something to watch that is for sure, either way I am going to have to plow!! We are at about 2-3 inches now with mostly all schools closed in the county.
Posted January 28th at 7:15 AM
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Jim (whitesboro):
Roads are snow covered and somewhat slick along the main arteries of commercial drive and 840. 840 is worse than commercial drive, but that is usually the case.
on a side note, I agree with Randy. My wife is a teacher in Utica and I can‘t believe that they have school today, particularly since the catholic schools are closed. I appologize for talking about this on here, but I really think that somebody from the news team should get in touch with the District and find out why they did not close
Posted January 28th at 7:17 AM
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Kim ( morris ):
Temps here are 19.5 degrees and snowing! 3 inches on the ground.
Have a good day all!
Posted January 28th at 7:22 AM
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Newport weather:
Maybe an inch on the roads in town, but it is falling steadily. Nothing on the internet on WKTV or Utica OD websites as far as school closings. I am glad Mr. Slentz (superintendent) called school off for West Canada because I would have worried all day about my kids getting home. It is going to be BAD according to everything I have seen and heard.
Posted January 28th at 7:35 AM
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Laura (Paris Hill):
Moderate snow here with a temperature of 14. Winds about 14 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH. Once the heavy snow arrives the visibility is going to go downhill fast!
Posted January 28th at 7:36 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Newport,
Just checked our webpage and our school closings are coming up. Here‘s a quick link to it click here If that doesn‘t work, try hitting the refresh button. Hope that helps.
Posted January 28th at 7:42 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Wow what a week it could be if the gfs qpf soudings where correct for rome ny and the local area.. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=NY&stn=KRME&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec
Posted January 28th at 7:44 AM
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LITTLE FALLS SLC:
has anyone drove yet today and if so how bad are the roads
Posted January 28th at 7:47 AM
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Matt (Cold Brook):
Chilly 18 degrees with a pretty good wind out of the east.Have about 2 inches on the ground right now with small grainy snow falling.At times bigger flakes mix in.It looks like Poland,Utica and Aderondack are the only schools open.
Posted January 28th at 7:52 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Snowflake size for this storm is quite small. I suspect that there‘s dry air intruding in from the north an east. Canadian Maritime High Pressure is still affecting us. We will lose this dry air as the high continues to depart to the east.
Posted January 28th at 7:53 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Measured 2.0” here.
Posted January 28th at 8:06 AM
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Fun in the Wintertime!:
Little Falls SLC: I came into work (Utica) about 6:30. The side roads were wonderful but as soon as I hit 28 and 5S it was a different story. That cruddy salt mixture the state uses is making the roads pretty darn slick and soupy. I would much rather travel side roads any day. A car started sliding right next to me on 5S and just as I got past it they went around in a full circle, so be careful!!!!
Posted January 28th at 8:11 AM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
The temperature here is exactly 21*
We have 2 inches of new snow this morning
The hand on the barometer is dropping now.
I don‘t know if this is weather or not.
But my wife saw 4 pair of Blue Birds yesterday while out walking the dog. Maybe it‘s a sign of Spring.Posted January 28th at 8:16 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
2.00” inches here.
Posted January 28th at 8:23 AM
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local roads:
I agree 100% on the messy state roads. Locals who plow the snow off and drop some sand are much, much better than the soupy state mess. Unfortunately, state plows are dictated more by shift than actual weather conditions. When they come in to work early (like today) they put the salt down. Finally about 9:00 they‘ll try to clear the slop. Again they‘ll put salt down, then hours of snow will mix in and create more slop. I‘ve heard they‘re trying to save money by using less salt, but sure doesnt look it to me. If they really wanted to save money, send the plows out every 2-3 hours and push the snow off the road instead of trying to melt it.
Posted January 28th at 8:40 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Low pressure looks to be over Northern W. Virginia at 1003mb. Not too much farther east than where the models have it.
Posted January 28th at 8:42 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Moderate- heavy snow falling with 2 1/2 inches so far..
Posted January 28th at 8:48 AM
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Just sayin:
You‘d think that if you had “heavy snow” that there‘d be more than 2 1/2” inches so far.
Posted January 28th at 8:50 AM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
Just like you said it was going to do Adam.
It‘s snowing harder here now.
The barometric pressure is still dropping.Posted January 28th at 8:52 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
I remind everyone to please be nice, and stick to weather and not about plowing. It‘s really easy to get off topic here if you haven‘t already seen.
Posted January 28th at 8:52 AM
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WINTER (Forestport):
… 2¼ “ of snow – fine flakes falling …19°… windy…
Posted January 28th at 9:05 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
LOL just saying u are the reason people shoule have to register to use the blog.. If i have 2 1/2 inches on the ground with heavy snow FALLING.. Does that mean the whole night it was heavy NO.. So worry about ure own weather and i will worry about mine..
Posted January 28th at 9:09 AM
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Adirondacks4me:
It has been snowing steadily here all morning. We live just north Remsen, it is 20 degrees , My son has to drive to MVCC I wish they would just cancel classes….
Posted January 28th at 9:12 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Correct Mike W – light-moderate-heavy snow is determined by visibility. 2.75 inches here so far,
Posted January 28th at 9:14 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Well according to the weather channel my visibilty is 0.3 miles..
Posted January 28th at 9:16 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Here‘s something to watch…our coastal storm has not yet formed. This is a map of pressure change over the past 3 hours. Look for large pressure drops along the coast as an indication that the surface low is intensifying.
Posted January 28th at 9:16 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
As mentioned, snowfall intensity is determined by visibility. Here’s a breakdown of what the official numbers are:
Light snow >1/2 mile
Moderate snow 1/2 to 1/4 mile
Heavy snow < 1/4 mileIn a situation like this, with small snowflakes, this way of measurement isn’t always ideal (higher visibility with smaller flakes).
Posted January 28th at 9:20 AM
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Ryan (Sauquoit):
Hey Bill as the High pushes away will snowfall pick up in intensity?
Posted January 28th at 9:26 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Yeah Bill – I saw on the 9:00 observations Fulton had 1/4 mile with just snow. Most other observations were right on with either light or moderate snow.
Posted January 28th at 9:27 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Mel where do u get ure OBS as i only have the weather channel to get the visibilty from.
Posted January 28th at 9:29 AM
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Brian:
Adam, long time reader, first time poster….just wanted to chime in & say my wife & I think you and the rest of the weather folks at ‘KTV are doing a great job. Seems like WKTV, being a smaller town, often serves as training grounds/launching pad for some fine Meteorologists. When, inevitably, some larger city lures you away (like so many of your peers) we‘ll miss you and embrace the next team member that steps in…..but I have a feeling there aren‘t too many places out there that have the variety of weather conditions you‘ll see here! Thanks for all your hard work, we‘ll stay tuned
Posted January 28th at 9:30 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Flake size is increasing here. The wind has also picked up quite a bit the past 20 minutes gusting over 20 mph at times.
Posted January 28th at 9:30 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Same here rob, i just noticed they have got bigger.. Around nickel size here..
Posted January 28th at 9:32 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Flake size is still small here, but one thing I have noticed is there is a little bit more wind than I thought there would be. Flake size generally increases as the temperature warms. I think we would have some pretty big flakes if we had temps between 25-30 degrees.
Posted January 28th at 9:39 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Awfully large dry slot seems to be working in, Is the storm transferring its energy and creating this or is the storm just underproducing???
Posted January 28th at 9:40 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Its gonna be close in my eyes, it looks like it could go right to are east or fill in..
Posted January 28th at 9:42 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
MIke W – go here and click hourly obs:
http://www.weather.gov/view/states.php?state=ny&map=on
Posted January 28th at 9:42 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Frz Rain has made it into Dannsville in the S. tier.
Posted January 28th at 9:43 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Michael – I agree on the winds. I usually see very little due to the geography here but it is whipping around today.
Posted January 28th at 9:43 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Thats not good Rob – making it further north than they thought. Wyoming county is right on route 20.
Posted January 28th at 9:46 AM
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Sue from Marcy:
The snow is coming down at a good rate here at the Masonic Care Community. Are we supposed to have this wind around all day? Hasn‘t affected visibility here yet, but the snow flakes are still small. Not looking forward to the drive back home tonight.
Posted January 28th at 9:47 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Looking at weather.com radar does look like a big dry slot, i hope it fills in..
Posted January 28th at 9:49 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Looking at radar, it looks like that dry slot is headed right at us.
Posted January 28th at 9:51 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Yep :(
Posted January 28th at 9:52 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
The dry slot is getting smaller..
Posted January 28th at 10:02 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Norwich reports 3.3” and Cooperstown has 3.0”. Highest total I saw so far was down in Bath and Hancock in the S. tier where they reported 4.0”.
Posted January 28th at 10:04 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Buffalo reporting heavy snow at 10:00 – waiting to see if Elmira is in the dry slot
Posted January 28th at 10:06 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Flow looks decent behind this system for the overnight. Might be able to grab some bonus snows from the lake.
Posted January 28th at 10:09 AM
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Richard:
Looks like the dry air might make it to CNY. sorry guys, I hope it does, we are leaving for Fla. in the AM and I don‘t need all of this work today.
Posted January 28th at 10:11 AM
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Jan (Utica):
So, are we still thinking the predicted snowfall totals will come to pass? Still light, small blowing flakes here. Not seeing much that would accumulate.
Posted January 28th at 10:11 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Elmira reported just cloudy so the dry slot has invaded there :-(
Posted January 28th at 10:12 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Im not giving up yet lol We need that precip to are west to come more east then north..
Posted January 28th at 10:13 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
I just talked to a member of another blog from binghamton and he said the dry slot is due to the track of the LP whick is suppose to head over binghamton and to are south.. So that precip to are west might be able to make it in heer and the dry slot is going NE not due north..
Posted January 28th at 10:17 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Believe me…there‘s no need to panic. It‘s just things are moving a little slower. Once we get the best dynamics over us (in a few hours)...the snow will add up fast and furious. Any type of banding could lead to 2 or even 3“hr rates.
Posted January 28th at 10:18 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
We might be in a dryslot for 1/2 hr -1 hr at most, the snow to are west will keep coming east and thta will start filling in..
Posted January 28th at 10:21 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Low pressure is just entering PA right now at 1002mb. It‘s just a little SE of Pittsburgh.
Posted January 28th at 10:22 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
NEXRAD radar shows the dry slot almost to the madison county line
Posted January 28th at 10:22 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Dry slot will come and go…most of it will pass south of the area. Heavy snow will continue to move in from the west this afternoon. Despite the less than exciting first half of the storm, the second half ought to perform as planned. No reason to back off now.
Posted January 28th at 10:25 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Rob is right there is nuttin worry about.. If the storm was going due north i would be worried but as the storm goes north it also goes east..
Posted January 28th at 10:25 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Just hit 3.0” of snow here.
Posted January 28th at 10:34 AM
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Matt(Marcy) :
Whew thought we would lose some possibility of that 8-12(+...?) totals from the dry slot. Anyone else think Matt might be just a little jealous in CA, while were getting this storm Lol
Posted January 28th at 10:36 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Lol prob not, hes prob doing some surfing or sun tanning lol
Posted January 28th at 10:38 AM
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Matt(Marcy) :
hard to get but the average amount of snow in Marcy is 3.25in hoping to get the snow cranking later todauy
Posted January 28th at 10:38 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Yea dryslot threat is pretty much over, time to enjoy the snow again..
Posted January 28th at 10:40 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Have around 3 inches here, not official
Posted January 28th at 10:41 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
dry slottin bad down here, the skies actually brightened up like it was clearing!!! Hope the rest of the snow is still on the way….
Posted January 28th at 10:43 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
I tried to measure the snow here on Smith Hill, but found it to be impossible. My best estimate is about 3.0”. Blowing and drifting up here is probably one of the worst I‘ve seen this winter. Our eastern end is completely exposed, so as you can imagine it‘s always ten times worse here than immediately down the hill.
Posted January 28th at 10:47 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Bill is it snowing heavy up there. Radar is showing heavy snow but it‘s barely snowing here.
Posted January 28th at 10:48 AM
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Matt (HP):
The wind is horrible, major drifting on Fox Rd. I chose 291 over RT 12.
Posted January 28th at 10:49 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
It looks like the dry slot has intruded into Chenango, and parts of Otsego county. It never made it into the Mohawk Valley, although the snow has lightened up just a bit.
Posted January 28th at 10:49 AM
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Allen (Sauquoit):
Snow has lightened up. Is it going to pick back up in intensity?
Posted January 28th at 10:57 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Yea the snow is so light that i can blow 1 foot drifts lol..
Posted January 28th at 10:57 AM
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L. (Cooperstown):
Things are pretty quiet here, for the moment; just a few flakes lazily floating down.
Posted January 28th at 11:00 AM
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Gary(Paris Station):
I am at work in West Edmeston and have picked up around 4 inches. It is 11:05 and the snow has stopped. It looks like it is trying to change to sleet. Any chance the sleet will make it further north by this afternoon?
Posted January 28th at 11:06 AM
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Maggie (Utica):
Bill, do you expect the dry slot to close up or further widen and encompass Utica too?
Posted January 28th at 11:06 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
This is the worst I have seen for wind this winter. Same as WKTV upl on Smith Hill I am open to the East Winds and snow is going straight sideways.
Posted January 28th at 11:06 AM
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kim ( morris):
Its snowing like a banche here ! in morris
Posted January 28th at 11:08 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Finally getting some moderate snow now. First time all morning.
Posted January 28th at 11:12 AM
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brian(edmeston center):
Just measured under 3 inches here in Edmeston
Posted January 28th at 11:13 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Snowing moderate here also
Posted January 28th at 11:17 AM
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Laura (Paris Hill):
I think I hear sleet hitting the windows. Winds still averaging 17 MPW with gusts to 22 MPH. Temp up to 17. No way to get a measurement with these winds.
Posted January 28th at 11:17 AM
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Shon (E. Winfield):
No snow and no wind right now. We got about 4-5” earlier this morning, but the last two hours we were apparently in our own dry slot, so here and there a flake and right now a light fine snow shower… Rt. 20 has bare tire tracks at the moment!
Posted January 28th at 11:18 AM
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newbie:
I am completely let down! I thought I would see a ton of snow falling but not so! It is 11:15 am, Little Falls, just past the Little Falls Golf course and I would say we are getting barely nothing! I would call it Flurries at best! It is very windy and I understand that may be part of it… but honestly, flurries with wind! One plow has come up this morning and I can still see the road rather clearly. What gives???
Posted January 28th at 11:18 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Newbie,
Patience. It‘s taking a few hours longer for the heavy snow to develop across the region. We still think it will fall heavy at times this afternoon.
Posted January 28th at 11:24 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Snowfall has been very sporadic here on Smith Hill. Have been able to get a measurement of about 3.5”.
Posted January 28th at 11:24 AM
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heather(Mohawk):
i have tiny flakes but mod falling thruway traffic moving along slow but ok I was out shoveling my torture of a driveway and 5s is covered and blowing but traffic moving ok on it it is pretty windy here I have to travel to canjoharie is there any good time i should head out? and my husband has to work in saint johnsville tonight hope the roads are ok for his travels too 6pm or should he leave even earlier or take a snowmobile?
Posted January 28th at 11:25 AM
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T in Clinton:
sleet coming down at a pretty good clip in Clinton.
Posted January 28th at 11:26 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Wow another big dryslot
Posted January 28th at 11:31 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Visability was down to about a half mile for about 10 minutes. But now sleet is starting to mix in with the snow. Visability still below a mile.
Posted January 28th at 11:33 AM
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Koz (Ilion):
Sleet coming down here in Ilion a while ago, now changing back to snow.
Posted January 28th at 11:35 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Well folks, looks like we‘re in trouble. If sleet has already made it‘s way in to the region, we‘re most likely done for snow at least until later this evening. After a long chat with the team, we‘ve decided cutting down our forecasted snowfall totals is the smart thing to do. 6-10” for the Mohawk Valley and points north, 4-7” for areas south of the valley. New map in a minute.
Posted January 28th at 11:36 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Nice banding just to my south
Posted January 28th at 11:40 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Visibility down to 1/2 mile here and got bigger flakes now
Posted January 28th at 11:41 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Just heavy snow here with big flakes
Posted January 28th at 11:42 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Mike that could be sleet. Let us know when it comes through. I‘m back over to moderate snow here. We‘re living on the edge.
Posted January 28th at 11:42 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Yea MEL u are in that nice band that is just gettin into my area..
Posted January 28th at 11:43 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
It makes more sense that it‘s already changing to sleet. The radar reflectivities don‘t match with what‘s actually happening. They are way too high. We call this bright banding. Ice pellets (sleet) are very reflective, so when the doppler radar beam hits these pellets, it sends back a strong signal.
Posted January 28th at 11:43 AM
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Richard(NH):
We have a little sleet mixing in on Rt. 5
Posted January 28th at 11:44 AM
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Please--:
If your going to contribute to a blog and expect others to understand what your trying to say….....Use some periods and commas!!!!!!! No one person should take this as a personal attack, thanks. To get back on topic, light snow in New Hartford with a little sleet mixing in.
Posted January 28th at 11:45 AM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
The snow just turned to Snow,Sleet, and Freezing Rain a few minutes ago
Right now it it heavy snow with what I call Ice Melt Snow or a from of freezing sleet.
I think there is still a little rain mixed in too.The temperature is 24* and the barometric pressure is dropping fast now.
Posted January 28th at 11:46 AM
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Anthony (N.Marcy):
Snowing again here at work in W.Utica…. I have to believe we will be back in heavy snow most of the afternoon and evening… Bill don‘t discount your forecast.
Posted January 28th at 11:46 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
3 1/2 inches with heavy snow/sleet now
Posted January 28th at 11:46 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
3.00” inches here. WOW this storm is underperforming big time!
Posted January 28th at 11:46 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
There is not a good fluff factor, now u have to add in the mix..
Posted January 28th at 11:48 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
I think at this point we have to tweak what we have based on what‘s going on right now. It‘s certainly possible we were right the first time, but it‘s better to play it safe.
Posted January 28th at 11:49 AM
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Steve (Town of Little Falls:
I too am new to this blog. I was outside for the past 40 minutes. Around 11:00, I was being pelted with small beads that look like styrofoam balls. The wind is so strong it really stings when I was hit by them . I take it that is what one would call sleet.
Posted January 28th at 11:51 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
LOL yea the sleet pellets here are huge..
Posted January 28th at 11:52 AM
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heather (Mohawk):
So sorry I didn‘t know this was grammer and typing school. Is there a better time I should travel out to Canjoharie today? Also what‘s the weather look like for 6 pm travel to St. Johnsville? It‘s very windy with mainly small flacks but some larger are mixing in at this time. The cars on the thruway seem to be moving right along. 5 South seems a bit slower though.
Posted January 28th at 11:53 AM
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Matt(marcy):
Bill this new dry slot looks to hit us, and since it‘s almost unavoidable how long do you expect it to last. And just one thing to point out is that the slot looks to be building back in just south of the valley
Posted January 28th at 11:53 AM
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Shon (East Winfield):
Sleet for the last half hour… Just now turned back to snow. No bare tire tracks left on Rt. 20.
Posted January 28th at 11:54 AM
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dave(hp):
Has the low formed off the coast yet or is it in the process of forming ?
Posted January 28th at 11:56 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Back to plain snow, coming down moderate
Posted January 28th at 11:57 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Been doing good here ever since that brief period of sleet. Visability has been a 1/2 mile ever since. It‘s coming down pretty hard.
Posted January 28th at 11:58 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Man that was quick scare lol
Posted January 28th at 12:00 PM
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Matt(marcy):
heavy snow,
big flakes,
no sleet,
10mph wind, gusts to 25mph
temp. 24
windchill 13
4.89 inches of snow on average(4 different spots)Posted January 28th at 12:01 PM
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Newbie:
I posted at 11:19 with nothing going on here in Little Falls. Well, right around 11:30 or so some snow did start to show up. Not much though. Right now, up here on the hill by the Little Falls Golf course, it is still blowing and I “hear” some sleet hitting my windows from the East. I am now looking at Jolene on the Live shot in Utica and here it looks nothing like Utica. Kind of dry, flurries, windy, small flakes at best and some mix now and then of sleet.
Posted January 28th at 12:02 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Well, the question mark of yesterday is being answered. The sleet has indeed made it a bit further north than models indicated. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending upon your point of view) that means our forecast totals have to come down a tad.
Curiously enough, it‘s not a “true sleet” here in Rome. Someone above mentioned styrofoam, and that‘s a good description of what‘s going on here in Rome. In sleet, snowflakes melt into raindrops and refreeze back into ice pellets before reaching the ground. I suspect now temperatures are barely above freezing over a thin layer in the midatmosphere that the snowflakes aren‘t totally melting before refreezing.
We certainly knew this one would be interesting. So far 3 3/4 inches of accumulation here in Rome. Bill will pass the baton over to me in an hour or two and I‘ll have more later this afternoon.
Posted January 28th at 12:02 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Best snow of the storm now falling here on Smith Hill. No sleet at this point. Holding breath.
Posted January 28th at 12:02 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Snow is really getting heavier now – 1/4 mile visib.
Posted January 28th at 12:03 PM
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newbie:
Temp is 27 and still very windy. I can see now that more snow is falling but definitly not big flakes.
Posted January 28th at 12:04 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
moderate- heavy snow here with nickle size flakes..
Posted January 28th at 12:06 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Thanks Adam – my girlfriend just got back from Rome and I asked her if it was sleeting there – she described what you said about Styrofoam pellets. Still all snow here. She said the roads are real slick.
Posted January 28th at 12:08 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
On the weather channel radar the mix is to the county to our south… I hope its wrong..
Posted January 28th at 12:09 PM
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Matt(marcy):
I speak for all snow lovers, we’re holding our breath and waiting to see if the dry slot is held up south of here and the sleet stays out of the mix
Posted January 28th at 12:09 PM
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Amy (Salisbury):
It has been snowing here all day, light to moderate to heavy back and forth, no signs of sleet, so far. Temp is 21 and we have picked up about 3.5 inches so far.
Posted January 28th at 12:14 PM
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newbie:
I post something and then like 5 minutes later I am eating my words!! :-)
A couple large flakes, lots of small flakes, lots of wind, sleet mixed in (I can clearly hear it hitting the windows) and the temp. is now 26.6. I am located in Little Falls up on the hill just past the golf course.
Posted January 28th at 12:14 PM
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Matt(marcy):
and it looks like the dry slot is filling in!!! maybe we‘ll stay sleet and get a foot like the team said
Posted January 28th at 12:15 PM
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Paula:
In Ilion we have a light snow fall with a lot of sleet mixed in. Not to much snow fall yet…..
Posted January 28th at 12:16 PM
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Matt(marcy):
Excuse me that should say we’ll stay SNOW not sleet because I haven’t seen any at all
Posted January 28th at 12:17 PM
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Steve (Town of Little Falls)::
About 10 minutes ago I was getting big flakes. I just looked outside and the styrofoam balls are back
Posted January 28th at 12:17 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Well now we knw where the sleet line is, i am 6 miles from littlefalls and have just snow..
Posted January 28th at 12:18 PM
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Matt(marcy):
oh no i‘m getting the styrofoam balls i hope they go back to snow
Posted January 28th at 12:25 PM
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Steve (Town of Little Falls)::
Well, it started, I now have a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
Posted January 28th at 12:28 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Here also, its because of the bright banding.. When that moves out should go back to all snow..
Posted January 28th at 12:30 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Looks like the storm is going more north now, instead of NE..
Posted January 28th at 12:31 PM
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Shon (East Winfield):
Well now it is big flakes, wind, and “sheets” of sleet hitting the windows, all at the same time.
Posted January 28th at 12:33 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Mike the low is getting pretty close to BGM. I think it‘s right over Bradford PA now.
Posted January 28th at 12:34 PM
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Patty (Village Of Herkimer):
just measured 4” ...It is snowing moderately right now with big styrofoam balls falling @ 25 degrees
Posted January 28th at 12:37 PM
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WINTER (Forestport):
... 22º... 3 ½’’ of snow…snowing moderately heavy…windy
Posted January 28th at 12:38 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
It‘s too bad, because this storm had huge potential and there was excellent model agreement yesterday. I won‘t complain if we don‘t get what is forecast, but I will complain because the setup looked so good only to have it back fire on us. FWIW, it has been 100% snow here so far. No mixing that I have seen.
Posted January 28th at 12:39 PM
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Truthsayer (oneida):
LOL! 6-12 inches eh … lol and when are we suppose to get the rest cause so far only about 3 inches….
Posted January 28th at 12:40 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
I would love to knw what the NWS is looking at, they have the orange bar scrolling at the bottom of the weather channel saying the mohawk valley will recieve 8-16 inches lol..
Posted January 28th at 12:40 PM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):
Barely snowing here in NH Village still
Posted January 28th at 12:43 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
There‘s alot of storm to go. No, this warm layer isn‘t helping with ratios. This layer will not be around for too long. The storm is now developing on the coast and should throw back more moisture. We also have the deformation zone from the primary low to come through with as well. I have snow/ sleet here right now.
Posted January 28th at 12:45 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Thanks for the reports gang. This blog has been incredibly helpful on a day like today, when YOU are the eyes we rely on. Even the best radar technology will occasionally drop the ball on sleet events.
Posted January 28th at 12:48 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
It just stinks, we keep getting heavy band after heavy band and there mixed with sleet.. Now if we have heavy snow/sleet can it still add up, just not as quick??
Posted January 28th at 12:49 PM
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dave (hp):
On radar I can see the coastal part of the storm now . It looks like it is going to be interesting the next couple of hours the primary storm looks to have a heavy band to the west of us lets see what happens when it hits the coastal .
Posted January 28th at 12:50 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Just some final thoughts before I depart for home (and some needed rest!). I think this storm may underperform slightly, but I still think we‘ll hit or get very close to our predicted snowfall forecast. Remember, we give a range to account for days like today. Consider this…we have 3.5” out there right now and all we need would be 4.5” to verify. There‘s still a lot of event to go…everything from the west has to make it‘s way through here. We‘ll have to wait and see. Adam will be taking the reigns from here on out. Enjoy the day, and drive safe :)
Posted January 28th at 12:52 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Well the coastal should draw in more cold air atleast.
Posted January 28th at 12:52 PM
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Pat(clayville):
VERY light Snow here, some sleet earlier. Is the snow supposed to pick back up in intensity?
Posted January 28th at 12:55 PM
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Comical:
This site is truly priceless for its entertainment value. Seriously, no complaints against WKTV weather team, they‘re right more than they‘re wrong, but all the wannabe meteorologists going back and forth patting eachother on the back. Verifying eachother‘s “wishcast s”. One guy even called for 2”-3” per hour!!! ROFLMAO. Keep it up, you guys are killing me. Dead serious, this is funny stuff.
Posted January 28th at 1:00 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
The radar is filling in real nice to my south, i hope it goes to all snow soon.. What is funny is NW of albany was suppose to stay all snow and albany was a mix.. Well albany has had all snow with over 5 inches, while we are gettin a mix..
Posted January 28th at 1:03 PM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
gotta love the “non regular” posters….Go away…..
Anyway, still sleet here in the city of Norwich, side of the building is also wet which would signify that there has been some freezing rain here. My wife was out to measure in the last hour and said that there is just a hair shy of 4” at the house. Looks like a lot of precip still out there if we can just get it to shift east a bit!
Posted January 28th at 1:05 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Comical it was the NWS that said snow ratios 1-3, they are suppose to be the king of weather and do all the warnings.. They are also still calling for 8-16 inches here for some reason.. But we have around 4inches and soon we will go back to all snow, If it was all snow right now i would be getting 1-2 inches pre hr..
Posted January 28th at 1:06 PM
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SLQM:
comical needs a day job. Anyway, don‘t understand why some schools are still in session. Hopefully everyone make the commute home safely.
Posted January 28th at 1:15 PM
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Becky (clinton):
Working here in Clinton.. looks like a cross over between sleet and snow. It keeps changing over. I thought the sleet would stay far south from us.. I see that the low is still developing, does that mean the heavier snow is yet to come?? I am just wondering what I will bring driving in later this afternoon on my commute home!!
Posted January 28th at 1:16 PM
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Laura (Paris Hill):
Sleet and freezing rain up here on the hill. Ugh, this has happened so much this year. I hate ice. Not a lot of traffic on SR 12.
Posted January 28th at 1:18 PM
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Steve (Town of Little Falls)::
I‘m getting quite a bit of sleet with some snow flakes.
Posted January 28th at 1:18 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
This is wasting all this heavy precip.. Ofcourse when its light it comes as snow, when its heavy it comes as sleet..
Posted January 28th at 1:21 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Just went outside – have avoided the sleet here so far. Wind has blown the snow completely off of one of my snowboards. 4” so far on the others
Posted January 28th at 1:22 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Comical obviously you‘re not going to get high snowfall rates in this part of the storm. Once we draw in the cold air then anything is possible. Models continue to show a major storm (nor‘easter) Mon/Tues. Some show major snows while others show Rain to snow.
Posted January 28th at 1:23 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
I am getting pounded with heavy precip..
Posted January 28th at 1:28 PM
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Steve (Town of Little Falls)::
Okay, now I‘m getting sleet and freezing rain. No snow flakes.
Posted January 28th at 1:28 PM
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Kim ( morris):
Heavy sleet here :( been sleeting for a while now.
Posted January 28th at 1:29 PM
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Becky (clinton):
it‘s all snow here in clinton for the moment and it‘s coming down pretty good..
Posted January 28th at 1:29 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
That backlash is are last chance to be saved a little..
Posted January 28th at 1:31 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
There‘s 4.0” here. It‘s been mainly snow but sleet has mixed in on occasion.
Posted January 28th at 1:31 PM
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Jan:
Snowing light to moderate in Rome, no sleet mixing in
Posted January 28th at 1:32 PM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):
A little bit of sleet here in NH Village.
Anyone else having Linkjam issues? Bill had to delete my account and I can‘t sign up for a new one :-(
Posted January 28th at 1:33 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
In my other weather blog, they are saying the bermuda high is too strong, so most likely tue storm will be either a coastal hugger or inland runner.. Lets hope for the 1st option lol
Posted January 28th at 1:36 PM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
We had just plain freezing rain for a while, then it turned to big wet snowflakes.
Right now it looks like it‘s small styrofoam balls and some heavy wet snow.The temperature is still at 23* the same as my last post. Barometer holding steady now.
Posted January 28th at 1:36 PM
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Brian(working in rome):
Snow as well now as anytime today. Hoping these big flakes keep up.
Posted January 28th at 1:36 PM
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Jeff:
Starting to snow pretty good here up on Trenton rd.
I‘m in the location of the old Super 12 Drive in.Posted January 28th at 1:36 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
NEXRAD showing a dry slot working into syracuse
Posted January 28th at 1:38 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Freezing rain here with a mix of flakes… It keeps getting worse by the minute..
Posted January 28th at 1:39 PM
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Jan:
Sleet started mixing in again in Rome
Posted January 28th at 1:44 PM
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Tom (Richfield Springs):
a mix of sleet and snow here. Hard to measure with the wind but close to 5” so far.
Posted January 28th at 1:54 PM
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WINTER (Forestport):
… 4¼ “ of snow… 23°…still coming down moderately heavy in the blowing wind…
Posted January 28th at 1:57 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Snow/sleet/ZR here.. Its gonna be hard to measure with all the mixed precip squashing the snowfall.
Posted January 28th at 1:57 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Sad thing is we have extremely heavy precip overhead and it is just snowing/sleeting lightly. Amazing!
Posted January 28th at 1:59 PM
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Bob ( Cooperstown ):
Been periods of heavy sleet, freezing rain, and even bit of all rain since noon.
Temp 28.0 Average wind speed 4mph
barometer 29.64Posted January 28th at 2:02 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Buffalo still reporting heavy snow at 2:00. Still all snow here as well with 1/2 mile visib.
Posted January 28th at 2:04 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Have 4 inches here..
Posted January 28th at 2:05 PM
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Villag Wboro:
Biggest flakes of the day so far. It‘s not coming straight down the wind has it swirling around, it‘s very strange looking. It‘s getting heavier as I type.
Posted January 28th at 2:05 PM
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Allen (Sauquoit):
Sleet has changed back over to all snow. It‘s really coming down hard now. As hard as I‘ve seen it all day.
Posted January 28th at 2:07 PM
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newbie:
Jeff H,
I certainly hope that I haven‘t personally offend somebody on this site? Telling the “new ones” to go away? Wow… who died and left your Blog Captain? Maybe the comment was geared elsewhere but remember we are all here to post our views and we all have a right to be here!Anyway, pretty much a entire sleet event here now. Wind seems to have died down a tiny bit but still going strong. No major snow for sure but lots of blowing. Temp is steady at 25 degrees and drifts with new sleet crusts should be interesting as far as plowing and shoveling! When the wind quiets for a minute it is actually pretty nice looking out there. Up here on the hill in Little Falls we didn‘t get much in “accumalations”. (at least as far as I can see since the wind is really wrecking havoc on seeing it piling up)!
Happy snow blowing everyone!!! :-)
Posted January 28th at 2:08 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
It starting to have more snow and less mix, maybe we can finally get rid of the sleet.. Pretty big flakes..
Posted January 28th at 2:14 PM
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NATE(little falls):
3.5inches here. newbie i live down by the highway and i havent had any freezing rain that i can see its been all sleet/snow mix with big flakes now and no sleet
Posted January 28th at 2:16 PM
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Jan:
Moderate to heavy snow in Rome right now
Posted January 28th at 2:18 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Looks like a small dry slot will be working in here shortly. Time to go plow some driveways.
Posted January 28th at 2:19 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Well my local forcast is from illion and they are reporting just freezing rain.. And im 2 min from there and have snow and sleet..
Posted January 28th at 2:19 PM
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Comical:
Thanks newbie! Jeff H really needs to grow some thicker skin if he wants a lead role on the wishcasting team. Not sure if I‘m quite ready to go away yet, sorry. In fact, his directive may have a counter-productive effect. Telling people to go away from an anonymous blog is more likely to attract “undesirables”.
I see forecast now changed to 6”-10”. Is that storm total or rest of the day? Has to be total, think we‘ll be luck to reach 6”.
Posted January 28th at 2:23 PM
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Allen (Sauquoit):
I definitely don‘t like the looks of that dry slot…..
Posted January 28th at 2:32 PM
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Hey Comical:
You can be banned from the site if you don‘t quit being mean. The directive was at you not at Newbie before. Watch out for him Adam!
Posted January 28th at 2:33 PM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Lol charm is a glorious thing. My comment was not directed to you newbie, but since you mention it, this is a weather blog not an english class. I could care less whether or not you stay or go, but please try and stick to the topic. And comical, I could care less about getting snow, personally can‘t wait till summer gets here so I can continue to groom my land. As for the anonymous part, we are a family here, you are the only one whom seems to be hiding behind a name.
Posted January 28th at 2:34 PM
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Mike (Poland):
Snowing heavily here for the past 2 hours, probably 4 inches on the ground, tough to tell with the harsh winds. temp is COLD : )
Posted January 28th at 2:36 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
This is actually the only blog i knw that u can be un named.. Other ones u have to register and get approved lol
Posted January 28th at 2:37 PM
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JK:
Horizontal snow in Sauquoit. Looks like lake effect without the lake!
Posted January 28th at 2:40 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Moderate to heavy snow the entire way into work from Rome to Utica on Route 49. Roadways are getting quite slick.
Primary low is still back across the PA/OH border. We still expect a transfer of energy to a new low pressure just offshore around sunset. While there is a lull in the precipitation from Syracuse to Auburn and down to Williamsport, it also appears that more precipitation is filling in across Central Pennsylvania.
We‘re up to about 4 1/2 inches of snow, so the call of 6-10 is going to stand, and that runs through 11 PM.
Thanks a million to everyone. Every little bit of information is a lot of help, especially with marginal events like this one.
Posted January 28th at 2:43 PM
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Adam Musyt:
People come to this blog for a reason. Let‘s keep it civilized. A word to the wise.
Posted January 28th at 2:45 PM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
We‘ve been having what I call flurries all day, but there is a surprising amount of snow on the ground. I‘ll get a measurement later.
For now, everyone be ready to be dry-slotted, just to be followed by more of what we had today.
Also, there are heavy radar returns between Boonville and Utica. Anyone have any precip. type news?
Posted January 28th at 2:46 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Finally all snow and pretty heavy at that with huge flakes..
Posted January 28th at 2:52 PM
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Adam Musyt:
New area of low pressure just beginning now to organize around Philadelphia. Primary low has a minimum pressure of 998 mb while the new low is still at 1005 mb (the lower the pressure value the stronger the “low pressure” center).
So the new low will gradually take over, and as it does, our precipitation will turn more and more to snow instead of a mix.
Posted January 28th at 2:52 PM
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WINTER (Forestport):
Comical and others of your type. It is unfortunate for us who are serious about this weather blog that a disagreeable person like you happened to stumble across it. The greater purpose of this blog is to share information so that others can make decisions that may make their drive home safer. So why don’t you take your stupid petty comments and go elsewhere.
Posted January 28th at 3:00 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Adam do u think that backlash can produce 2-4 inches ?
Posted January 28th at 3:00 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Mike W,
That seems reasonable. That‘s what we‘re banking on.
Posted January 28th at 3:02 PM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
Adam
I just did a water content on the first 3 inches of mix of about everything.
I was kind of surprised, Only a 1/2 inch of water in that stuff. Matt Lanza always liked to know the water content.
Temperature is 24* nowPosted January 28th at 3:03 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Art,
Thanks. That makes for a 6:1 ratio. This is why sleet is like a gigantic monkey wrench for snowfall forecasts. It does keep us on our toes, though :-)
Posted January 28th at 3:08 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Picked up 4.5” here so far. Just got into the dry slot.
Posted January 28th at 3:12 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Thanks, Rob.
Looking at some of the observations within the next batch of precipitation (to the west of the dry slot), I like what I see. Half-mile visibility with moderate snow in Rochester, and quarter-mile visibility and more heavy snow for Buffalo and Bradford and DuBois, PA.
It‘s not over yet.
Posted January 28th at 3:20 PM
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newbie:
Well it looks like the sleet event is over here. About 1 hour ago I finally saw big fluffy flakes for the first time all day. My bird feeders are barely swinging now as the wind has died down significantly. For the time being anyways. The plow just came by and mostly knocked down the drifts across the roads. Wind still coming from the East here and it is coming down lightly for now. Temp. has rose to 29.5 and every once and a while I hear the sleet come and go.
Posted January 28th at 3:23 PM
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Becky (Clinton):
HI Adam..
Sounds like you guys have your hands full trying to figuire out this storm.. I see there is a dry slot, do you think the snow will pick up in intensity once the dry slot pass through our area?
Thanks..Posted January 28th at 3:24 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Still snowing moderate, with 5inches of snow/sleet.. We got 4 inches from this morn snow, then 1/2 inch slush and another 1/2 inch with the changeover to snow.. .
Posted January 28th at 3:25 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Yeah I hope this wraps up into a nice deformation zone. Alot of times this is where we do our cashing in. I‘m in the dry slot according to radar but the snow has picked back up here again.
Posted January 28th at 3:26 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Becky,
Yeah. It should. The dry slot itself is filling in now and it‘s snowing impressively to the west.
I think another 2”-4” on top of what we have already seen seems to be a fair call. We‘re closing in on 5” now, so that should take us to our 6”-10” forecast.
Posted January 28th at 3:27 PM
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D Liddle:
Old Forge right now, about 4-5 inches on ground, light flurries and 18 for a temp.
Posted January 28th at 3:30 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
This band still not letting up here in herkimer..
Posted January 28th at 3:34 PM
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Greg (Cooperstown):
Since about 1 PM freezing rain has been falling here in Cooperstown. Sleet mixing in. Temp 23 degrees. All on top of 3 inches of snow from morning.
Posted January 28th at 3:49 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Still snowing here, by the time this snow gets out the backlash will be here..
Posted January 28th at 3:50 PM
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Brian:
5 inches of snow in Old Forge. I hope we get at least 4 more inches on the back side.
Posted January 28th at 3:56 PM
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Jim S.:
Lapland Lake XCtry Ski Area in Benson, NY is reporting 10+” of snow and still coming down hard at 3:30pm. Looks like the NWS call for 10” – 16” in the southern Adirondacks is right on target…meanwhile, it‘s a typical NYC slop storm here in midtown Manhattan, with light rain and slush everywhere…
Posted January 28th at 3:57 PM
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Patty (Village of Herkimer):
Just measured 6” in all three of my measuring spots that I haven‘t cleaned off all day.
Posted January 28th at 4:01 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Yea it should be somewhere near that hear also, prob 5 1/4- 5 1/2
Posted January 28th at 4:03 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Still snowing here even tho radar dosent show anything..
Posted January 28th at 4:04 PM
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PISECO:
51 DAYS TIL’ SPRING!!!
Posted January 28th at 4:34 PM
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SPEC:
HOW IS TRAVELING EXPECTED TO BE TOMMRROW?
Posted January 28th at 4:39 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Backend looks pretty nice
Posted January 28th at 4:40 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Snowband just blew up over the Tug and N. Oneida. Looks like it‘s snowing at the rate of 2”/hr. Light snow just started back up here.
Posted January 28th at 4:42 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Its right on my doorstep..
Posted January 28th at 4:48 PM
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MR. LANINA:
Watch out Piseco for expressing any opinion contrary to the Snow Cheerleaders that mostly populate this Blog! I thought this is a weather blog not a snow winter enthusiast Blog exclusively? I am with you Piseco bring on spring! We have been in Winter since October!
Posted January 28th at 4:50 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Hey u can have ure opinion, no 1 will get mad about that lol.. Its people that come on and start trouble.. And what else we gonna talk about? It is winter…. When we get to spring and summer we will start talking heavy rain storms and severe weather..
Posted January 28th at 4:54 PM
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mickey:
i really really love you guys! (almost as much as a nor‘easter)
Posted January 28th at 5:06 PM
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MR.LANINA:
HI Mike W! Please talk about Sunny & Warm conditions this Spring & Summer! LOL! We had enough of Cold & Rainy conditions last year. Thats why This Winter has been soooooo long for us nice weather people, IF this pattern keeps up we will be in the top 10 Snowiest Winters,not to mention the Bitter cold we have had all Fall & Winter.
Posted January 28th at 5:09 PM
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PISECO:
I LOVE ALL THE SEASONS, WOULDN‘T TRADE UPSTATE NY FOR NOTHING!!
LOTS OF NEW SNOW HERE ABOUT 8’ SO FAR,WE‘RE IN THE DRY SLOT NOW 20*F
(SNOW MACHINE LOVERS I HEAR THE TRAILS ARE AWSOME)Posted January 28th at 5:11 PM
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RS (Barneveld):
Just when you think things are looking good, expecting lots of snow on backside, just got a decent shot of sleet. Currently 25 degrees and approx 4-1/2” snow. Anyone else getting sleet this far north? I‘m not asking for any forecasts, just observations please, dont want to start any fights.
If I could make one observation, seems like a few of the regulars really take offense if anyone gets “challenged”. Think it comes with the territory if your going to stick your neck out and make a prediction. What if meteorologists got mad everytime they got second-guessed? Food for thought.
Posted January 28th at 5:12 PM
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Steve (Town of Little Falls)::
It‘s been over thirty minutes and not a snow flake falling. Wind stopped too! Calm as ever and it feels nice out there for a change.
Posted January 28th at 5:13 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
5.00” inches here. Snow is cranking back up again.
Posted January 28th at 5:19 PM
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RS (Barneveld):
Hang in there Steve. We were dry for awhile. Short batch of sleet, now decent light-moderate snow, bigger flakes, looks like it‘ll accumulate quicker than this morning.
Posted January 28th at 5:19 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Its snowing real nice hear, also nice sized flakes.. Got around 6 inches, will do measurement when its finished. The weather channel must like the backside, tthey upgrade us from 2-4 to 3-5 tonight..
Posted January 28th at 5:24 PM
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Steve (Town of little Falls)::
Thank you RS, I didn‘t have hang very long (six minutes). Snowing again and the big plus (to me) is: NO WIND!
Posted January 28th at 5:28 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Snow adding up nicely :-)
Posted January 28th at 5:32 PM
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PISECO:
SNOWS BACK ON YIPPIE......COMMING DOWN VERY HEAVY.
Posted January 28th at 5:37 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Going over 5” here with heavy snow. Mike check out the 18Z. Back to back nor‘easters in 36hrs. Yeah that might happen!
Posted January 28th at 5:39 PM
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QUESTION:
DOES ANYONE KNOW HOW DRIVING WILL LOOK IN THE AM?
Posted January 28th at 5:41 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Yea i knw rob but people in the accuweather blog says it makes no sence and its the worst GFS model run.So they are throwing it out..
Posted January 28th at 5:45 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
LOL o i didnt realize u where being sarcastic
Posted January 28th at 5:46 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
LOL i think the backlash is gonna be way better then the frontlash.. It seeems precip keeps building to are west with nice banding by lake ontario..
Posted January 28th at 5:49 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
That band headed towards you is intense. It just came through here and the visability dropped below 1/4 mile.
Posted January 28th at 5:52 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
LOL i think i see it on radar a tiny little dark line..
Posted January 28th at 5:58 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Picked up 5.8 inches so far today
Posted January 28th at 6:01 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
johnstone ny is the closest place i seen with a snow report and they have 8 inches..
Posted January 28th at 6:01 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
lol johnstown
Posted January 28th at 6:02 PM
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kathy in cedarville:
are the winds gonna pick up tonight ?
Posted January 28th at 6:04 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
6 1/2 inches here..
Posted January 28th at 6:14 PM
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Patty (Village of Herkimer):
Just shy of 7” here in the village. snowing nicely. Mike W…. johnstone…..i sat here for a minute thinking where the heck is that….until I looked down and seen you meant Johnstown….LOL
Posted January 28th at 6:23 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Lol yea i knw, got no sleep last night
Posted January 28th at 6:24 PM
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Heather (Mohawk):
Travel on thruway still going well.5S is a mess from South Washington St. bridge up to my house. I was all over the road. Herkimer streets are a mess almost like they weren‘t plowing the side streets at all. My husband left for work early going through Little Falls to St. Johnsville when he calls I will updat the conditions to St. Johnsville It‘s light snow now. I will only report St. Johnsville if anyone cares to know. So I am not waisting anyones time. Let me know if you want.
Posted January 28th at 6:36 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Moderate snow here. 6.0” of snow has fallen.
Posted January 28th at 6:45 PM
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wyld_Addict:
Snowing Moderately here in Rome (Stanwix).
So is the outlook into next week look at a Nor‘eastern or what. My son‘s brithday is next week and we usually get some type of storm around his birthday. Usually a ood one with lots of snow.What is your projection Mike W.
Posted January 28th at 6:53 PM
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kathy cedarville:
i heard its gonna get windy tonight has anyone else heard that .
Posted January 28th at 6:56 PM
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John (Ohio):
6.0” storm total up here
Posted January 28th at 7:01 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
This is 1 of the best back end snow i have ever seen.. Next week is up in the air, alot of models want to bring it inland(Apps runner) Which is usally some kind of mix scenerio.. My NWS is going with the colder solution and snow at the moment due to some of the esembles
Posted January 28th at 7:02 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Obviously, when you have all three jets phased with a strong S/W riding along them, with all those dynamics you get a bomb. When the storm bombs, it closes off at all levels, even 500MB and above. This closing off of the low flexes the ridge over the northwest Atlantic, the storm has no where to go, the trough goes negative, and we have a huge cut off low That is what some1 from the other blog thinks of the 18z gfs..
Posted January 28th at 7:13 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Thanks for all of the reports, guys. They are much appreciated. Back edge of the steady widespread snow is now moving situated from an Auburn to Elmira line. So it looks like maybe about 2 or 3 more hours of steady snows before we wind down to snow showers and flurries.
Just on principle, I am hoping we get to 8” :-)
Posted January 28th at 7:23 PM
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Matt(Marcy):
Looks like BUF is already getting some lake effetc
Posted January 28th at 7:25 PM
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WINTER (Forestport):
… 26°… 6 ” total snow so far for the day… it’s snowing moderately
Posted January 28th at 7:25 PM
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Laura (Paris Hill):
The back edge is really producing some snow! At least four inches in the past three hours and it‘s coming down hard. Moderate winds to blow it all around too. 24 degrees.
Posted January 28th at 7:32 PM
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Adam Musyt:
GFS has been advertising a mean looking storm for early next week. Yesterday‘s 00z run showed what looked like a blizzard as the storm rapidly intensified off the coast. 12z run this morning showed, as is typical for this year, a more inland track. If we were to take the 12z run verbatim we‘d actually be looking at a rainstorm here. Obviously to go from a big blizzard to a rainstorm shows that nothing is anywhere near etched in stone. It‘s going to be interesting to watch and we‘ll definitely tackle it as we get closer.
Before all that there may be a touch of lake effect tomorrow morning, on the order of 1”-2” for most of Oneida County with perhaps a tad more in the more persistent. Whatever does develop will lift northward tomorrow afternoon as winds veer ahead of Friday‘s cold front.
I can‘t stress enough how thankful we all are here in the weather center for the reports. You are our eyes all across the viewing area. And on days like today with such differing conditions over short distances, it‘s even more important to get as much information as possible.
Posted January 28th at 7:33 PM
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wyld_addict:
Still Moderately snow. Winds have picked up to gust of near 21 MPH.
Posted January 28th at 7:42 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Adam i think we might get more then 8 here.. We had 6 1/2 an 1hr 1/2 ago with moderate- heavy snow and plus a couple more hrs of this.
Posted January 28th at 7:42 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
1 more thing, do u think any of that Lake shower activity can make it down the mohawk a little..
Posted January 28th at 7:44 PM
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wyld_addict :
major wind gusts now. NEXRAD reports 31 mph + steadily. Noticed a big temp change too. Must be wind chill.
Posted January 28th at 7:47 PM
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MG(Point Rock):
I‘m up to 6.5 for the storm, with moderate snow and some blowing snow at this time. The wind has picked back up quite a bit in the last hour, now coming more from the SW or W, instead of the east wind we had all day
Posted January 28th at 7:50 PM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):
Just had a 33mph gust here. Moderate snow here. Measured 4.2” but that was at 5:30
Posted January 28th at 7:51 PM
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Amy (Salisbury):
6” of snow here in Salisbury. Temp is 27.
Posted January 28th at 7:54 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
7 1/2 inches of snow so far here.. We should recieve another 1/2-1 inch
Posted January 28th at 7:59 PM
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skooter:
white out conditions up here in HP. disappointing snow totals but then again it‘s kinda hard to tell how much we really got cause it was blowing pretty much all day guessing somewhere around 6” or so. At least it‘s not ice!! Heard there is a potential for another big storm early next wk?? Any thought on that yet?
Posted January 28th at 8:03 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Mike W – you are going to make yourself look unreliable – you had sleet and mixed precip today but you haqve the highest total of anyone – go read the rules for measuring snowfall.
Posted January 28th at 8:08 PM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
We are having some real strong winds here on the surounding hills of Oriskany Falls.
I can‘t tell ya what the wind speed is. I had a weather station here that had wind speed.
The alarm on the darn thing got going off at Midnight every night, so I took the batteries out of it. :-)
The temperature is 25*Posted January 28th at 8:22 PM
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Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):
i could swear i just heard thunder. did anyone else in the rome area here it?
Posted January 28th at 8:24 PM
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Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):
hear lol
Posted January 28th at 8:25 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
LOL MEL 1st of all look at the radar and tell me who had the most qpf.. 2nd of all the guy from downtown herkimer had 7 inches like 2hrs ago. 3 rd of all johnstown who had more mixing then us has around 10 inches..
Posted January 28th at 8:25 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
according to the NWS in albany are qpf today was 1-1 1/3 inch of qpf .. with a 10-1 ratio that is 10-13, we recieved 7 1/2.. So please dunt open ure mouth to u knw what u are talking about.. I bet u the guy from herkimer, rob and utica will all have around the same or close..
Posted January 28th at 8:29 PM
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Patty (Village of Herkimer):
29 degrees 7 3/4 inches of snow … still snowing lightly the wind has started back up making it harder to measure…. have a good night everyone..stay warm and Mike W. get some sleep tonight…
Posted January 28th at 8:30 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
lol i will try..
Posted January 28th at 8:32 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I‘ll have a measurment by 10PM. Should be all done by then. Still snowing here. Starting to see signs of the lake firing up on a 300 flow.
Posted January 28th at 8:46 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Hopefully we can score several more inches tonight from the lake. These scenerios sometimes overachieve a tad because of the left over low level moisture. Very windy here. Snow is plastered all over the windows.
Posted January 28th at 8:51 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Yea well ure lucyk ure a little closer to the lake.. LES dosent like the mohawk valley lol
Posted January 28th at 8:53 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Rob,
Thanks. It would be much appreciated.
On the Lake Effect, if it can organize this evening, the best window of opportunity to rack of extra snowfall would be from now through about midmorning tomorrow. After that, whatever is left of the band should be on the move as steering currents direct in northward in response to the next cold front that is slated to arrive on Friday.
Posted January 28th at 9:03 PM
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Matt(Marcy):
Adam do you think you could tell me what a 300,295,290etc flows would mean for us in the valley
Posted January 28th at 9:06 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Looks like the synoptic, or widespread, snow is about over with. We managed to squeeze out just about an even 7” of snow here on the hill.
Posted January 28th at 9:10 PM
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Ralph L (New Hartford ( 900 ft )):
Matt in Marcy, A 290 flow would be good for Utica , Marcy etc, A 295 flow would be good for Paris Hill area and New Hartford, 300 flow would be good for West Winfield , Oneida etc. all depends how many bands of lake snow.
Posted January 28th at 9:15 PM
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Adam Musyt:
A “270 flow” just means that winds are coming from 270 degrees on a compass, or from due west. When the wind is on a 270 flow, the lake effect forms to the east of Lake Ontario, and depositis snow band over the North Country. A 290-flow is good for the Mohawk Valley. A 300 flow favors the hillier terrain to the south of the Valley, and anything over a 300-flow pushes the snow band further and further west toward Syracuse and Auburn.
Right now the lake effect that is starting to form is on 300-degree wind flow and a band of lake effect snow is just starting to form Fulton to Brewerton to Chittenango and then to areas south of Oneida.
Posted January 28th at 9:18 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Came up with 6.5” here. There is significant blowing and drifting snow with drifts well over a foot.
Posted January 28th at 9:41 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Thanks, Rob.
Posted January 28th at 9:46 PM
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Adam Musyt:
We‘ll have a new entry up tomorrow to tackle what‘s coming up for the rest of the week, and we‘ll take a peek at what the models are showing for early next week.
Posted January 28th at 9:46 PM
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Michelle (Prospect):
Very windy and blowing snow . Power has flickered a few times
Posted January 28th at 9:47 PM
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Pete from Clinton:
I just came in from clearing the driveway. We received about 5 inches but we are in a valley and suspect there is more on the surrounding hills, as usual. Temp right now is 23 degrees. No wind during the day but it has become very windy in the last couple of hours.
Posted January 28th at 9:47 PM
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Matt(Marcy):
Ok thanks adam
Posted January 28th at 9:48 PM
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ONEOLDSLEDDEROLDFORGE:
LOOKS LIKE THIS STORM IS JUST ABOUT IN THE BOOKS, SEEMS LIKE IT COMES IN ON THE LOW RANGE OF THE FORCAST BUT ALLS GOOD, NO RAIN,WKTV CREW GOODJOB, NOAA WAS WAY TO HIGH ON TOTALS, LIKE ALWAYS, MIKE W, ABOUT A MONTH AGO MEL DUMPED ON STEVO ABOUT SNOW TOTALS, I GUESS HE KNOWS SNOW TOTALS FOR EVERY TOWN, ANYWAY I GUESS WE MOVED ON WITHOUT MATT LANZA, TIME TO LOOK TO THE NOREASTER NEXT WEEK
Posted January 28th at 9:52 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Significant blowing and drifting snow on going here right now. Total snowfall is in the area of 6.5” inches as well.
Posted January 28th at 9:53 PM
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Chris ( Holland Patent ):
I have 7.5” of snow as of 10pm. Mostly for the most part have some light snow from time to time and blowing snow is a big issue. Winds are nasty out tonight and the roads are snow covered. I had drifts of up to 18” and the wind has caked the snow to the cars outside.
Posted January 28th at 10:15 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Picked up a total of 6.3 inches. winds are WNW at 10-20 mph highes gust was 34 mph. All roads are Treacherous. due to hard packed snow and blowing snow. winds are causing zero visibility at times
Posted January 28th at 10:21 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Thats….. highest gust
Posted January 28th at 10:22 PM
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Amy (Salisbury):
Wind kicked up here like everywhere else. No more measuring as it just blows away. Still snowing.
Posted January 28th at 10:28 PM
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Adam Musyt:
WInds are really cranking. Sustained at 32 mph at Griffiss in Rome and gusting to 40!!
If you don‘t have to go out, best advice is to probably stay in. I‘ll be sure to have a death grip on my steering wheel on my trek home tonight.
Posted January 28th at 10:28 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Yeah it‘s really bad out there. The snow is starting to fall moderately here as well. Visabilty is poor.
Posted January 28th at 10:32 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Snow still flying here, decent size flakes..Maybe a touch heavier then light..
Posted January 28th at 10:36 PM
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Bob ( Cooperstown):
Very windy about an hour ago with periods of heavy snow Calm now Can even see stars Temp 22.3 Baro 29.68
Posted January 28th at 10:37 PM
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Jeremy (Sangerfield):
Not sure the wind speed but my trailer almost blew over. Now there is a air pocket around onieda and madison county line. I can see the strars!
Posted January 28th at 10:51 PM
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Kim ( morris) :
hello, Does any one what Speculator got for snow :)
Thanks Kimps, very windy here and flurries here!
Posted January 28th at 11:01 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Some decent totals coming out of Hekimer County. Spotter in Fairfield reported 11.0” and another in Poland reported 10.0”.
Radar seems to be underestimating the snow here. It‘s coming down hard.Posted January 28th at 11:07 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Go too weather.com and type in albany, they had it up but i missed it..
Posted January 28th at 11:09 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Kim there was a report of 9.5” in Speculator.
Posted January 28th at 11:10 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
LOL GFS playing mind game again..
Posted January 28th at 11:12 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I‘m going with what the Euro says on tomorrows 12Z run. It just got a handle on it today so well give a few runs to adjust. It‘s hard to bet against after it‘s performance this year. This is a totally different type of storm though. It might not handle it as well.
Posted January 28th at 11:19 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Another noreaster for us according to the GFS.. Biggest thing is the HP in the atlantic more east and weaker..
Posted January 28th at 11:20 PM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Storm total for us here in Sherburne was about 5” with another 2” last night from LES, 7” total. The wind was absolutely terrible last night, my driveway has about 8”-15” drifts in it. I am out of places to put this snow. I got thinking this morning that it has been a long time since we had this kind of sustained snow pack, and it keeps piling up.
Posted January 29th at 5:09 AM
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WINTER (Forestport):
... 19º... 8” total snow for yesterday‘s storm…it was all snow up here, no sleet…
This is going to be a ‘WINTER’ to be remembered.Posted January 29th at 5:59 AM
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randy Vitullo :
PISECO: Where you live spring, in terms of weather not calendar, won‘t come for about 81 days. LOL..... About 8 inches here as of this morning. Maybe a little more. Hard to say with te wind.
Posted January 29th at 6:06 AM
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John (Ohio):
Another 3.5” last 12 hours, 9.5” storm total
Posted January 29th at 6:13 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Very impressive lake effect snow continues this morning for Northern Oneida County. Snowfall rates of 1-2” per hour will continue for areas like Westdale, Camden, and Boonville as that lake band continues to shift north.
Posted January 29th at 7:28 AM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):
7.2” Total for the storm. Light Flurries now.
...and I broke the snowman Bill. Was gonna put him back out. Sorry :-(
Posted January 29th at 8:02 AM
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MG(Point Rock):
I don‘t know when the synoptic snow transitioned to lake effect, but I got 5 more inches after 7:30 PM , and still had good snow falling at 7:30 AM when I left for work (visibility was 1/2 mile). My storm total was 11.5 at that point. I noticed on the cocorahs web site that the observer in Stokes Corners was reporting 13.5 for a storm total. My water equivalent was 0.77, but the ratio changed dramatically from about 9 to one at the beginning to almost 50 to one for what fell overnight.
Posted January 29th at 8:18 AM
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SNO-X (WESTMO):
Adam,Bill,Jill I just wanted to say thank you for keeping this blog going you all handled this storm very well. If it wernt for the sleet moving further north than expected your forcast was dead on and still was very close. Anyways keep up the good work and i am sorry for doubting you guys and girl lol i thought this blog was history after Matt left.
Posted January 29th at 8:37 AM
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Abner (Holland Patent):
I‘m hearing talk about a N‘Easter early next week. Of course we are several days out (aren‘t we always?) Anyone have any insight on this story?
Posted January 29th at 8:40 AM
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Bob Jones (Ilion):
Hey Abner, I love your sarcasm. We should be pals.
Posted January 29th at 8:54 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Abner: We are going to get hit by something for sure. The question now becomes what? It could be a massive rain storm with severe flooding or a crippling snowstorm with a ton of snow….. oh and of course there is always the chance of our favorite, a crippling ice storm as well. This system will be tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and models are spitting out widespread heavy qpf, so whatever it comes as it appears at this point to have a significant impact any way you slice it.
Posted January 29th at 9:28 AM
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Charles:
Hi Bill. Tuesday/Wednesday looks like a possible storm. What do you think so far of what we could get?
Posted January 29th at 9:32 AM
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modern forcasting:
Once again we are putting out the fear of a storm next week.The media has what I call “The Bush Factor” strike fear into everyone well in advance.
You gotta admit,yesterdays “storm” was actually nothing more than a normal winter day in central NYPosted January 29th at 9:39 AM
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Matt (HP):
Ended up with 7 inches of lake effect last night.
Posted January 29th at 9:44 AM
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Adam Musyt:
Modern,
This is not a political blog. Keep the politics to yourself. It‘s not going to be tolerated here.
Posted January 29th at 9:44 AM
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Adam Musyt:
New entry tonight gang. Enjoy the snow :-)
Posted January 29th at 9:48 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Picked up another 2.0” last night. All together I ended up with 8.5” of snow.
Posted January 29th at 9:50 AM
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Matt:
I should add that seven was on top of the other 7 we had from the storm, so 14 total.
Posted January 29th at 10:06 AM
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mike m(Oswego):
tuesdays storm is going to be a different “breed” so to speak then what we have seen so far this winter. ok so lets set the situation and see what may happen. first off we will not have too much cold air in place with 850 mb temps > -10 degrees. a large piece of energy will ride across the SW US and emerge into the GOM. as it does so it will begin to strength, and due to a strong trough to its west, which will eventually go negatively tilted, and also high pressure to the storms east , the storm should turn north somewhere along the coast. this is where the details come in. if this storm takes a track in land say just west of DC and then near Binghamton, we will see a sloppy mess with snow going to rain then back to some light snow. or the storm may track from near norfolk va, to near NYC the possible near albany, this would be the favored track for heavy snow across CNY. then there is stil the chance that the storm tracks offshore to near montauk pt long island the near or just east of boston; even this would probably still bring us some light snow(<6”). now on to why this storm is so different. if everything turns out right this storm will be very powerful over cny, no matter what the track. this storm is going to begin to cutoff over near our lattitude. this means a very slow moving storm with strong dynamics, this will cause banded precipitaion, and a strong deformation zone may form over CNY. well all there is to do now is to wait and see….
Posted January 29th at 10:10 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Mike if this thing tracks to our west flooding is going to be a major concern. The snowpack here is 20” deep and probably twice that to my north. I would definitely root for a more eastern track. Check out the UK model. We would have to go out and board up our windows for that!
Posted January 29th at 10:16 AM
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mike m(oswego):
rob, even though we could deffinetly get alot of rain out of this if it tracks to our west, im not sure about flooding. with so much snow on the ground, perhaps the snowpack would absorb most of the rain. im sure there would be some minor flooding, but i dont think we go above freezing long(if at all) and then expect a hard refreeze. this is all assuming a track over or west of us of course.
Posted January 29th at 10:48 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Lake flakes finally winding down here as the sun has come out with blue skies.. Looks like the next snowstorm will be the end of the Barnes Corners webcam as they are at close to 7 feet.
Posted January 29th at 11:07 AM
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Tim (Salisbury):
Bring on the Rain!
Posted January 29th at 11:07 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Looks like we could have an interesting LES event tomorrow into Saturday as the NWS discussion is talking a mainly 270 – 290 flow for an extended period of time. Look forward to hearing the weather teams thoughts on that later today.
Posted January 29th at 11:11 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Yeah that‘s true it‘s been so cold around here things probably wouldn‘t get out of hand. And like you said things would freeze up in a hurry with that arctic airmass it would drag in. The lake will be gushing somewheres. Speaking about the lake, we got a decent set-up tomorrow night.
Posted January 29th at 11:15 AM
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Mark (Paris Station):
Snowblowed the driveway around 2:30am this morning. Snow was coming down still at a pretty good clip, i was quite surprised. I estimate we picked up 8” or so. The wind blew the snow around a lot so it truely is hard to get an dead on accurate measurement….
Posted January 29th at 11:20 AM
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Amy (Salisbury):
I measured another 2” this morning, bringing storm total to 8.5” for my area of Salisbury, but there was definately a time that a lot if it blew around and didn‘t get measured.
Posted January 29th at 11:31 AM
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Abner (Holland Patent):
Michael – post 386. Thanks for your insight. I hate when we hype up storms so far in advance and then they fizzle out. Looks like this one definitely will do something to us….unless it goes out to sea of course. (AKA : “a fizzle out”)
Bob Jones: post 387. Thanks, but I‘m not so sure Musyt and Kardas appreciate it as much as you do. Bill put the hammer down on me earlier this week on one of my posts. I appreciate that some of us take this seriously (way too seriously) but I try to at least bring a little humor to the table. For crying out loud, its just a weather blog, we are solving world hunger here.
BTW..... Measured 8 inches in HP from yesterdays event.
Posted January 29th at 12:14 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Been a busy morning (and much of it not weather related). Thanks for the reports. We posted them here . We‘ve been having email issues today, so not all of the reports made it to our website.
Posted January 29th at 12:40 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
By the way, as probably already mentioned, lake effect looks like it may be an issue for many of us Friday night. Winds will shift into the northwest, bringing a band down into the Mohawk Valley.
Posted January 29th at 12:41 PM
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Concerned about Sat morning travel:
What‘s the outlook for Friday night into Saturday (I see some talking about a good set up for lake effect)?
Posted January 29th at 12:43 PM
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Dave (Westmoreland):
Thank you very much Adam, Jill and Bill for your efforts on this blog. It is much appreciated! I admit I was a bit worried abouts Matts departure. As one who reads regularly, but almost never posts, I really enjoy the insight you guys have to offer, whether it‘s updates during a storm or your ideas on something coming in several days. I hope you never let the childish comments of a few on here to get to you. Your team as well as many of the regular posters make this a great blog. Please keep up the good work and Thanks again!!
Posted January 29th at 12:52 PM
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Jim S.:
Bill,
Can I suggest adding Lapland Lake‘s snow total reports to your regular post mortem list, or is inclusion on that list reserved for observations that meet certain minimum data collection criteria (ie, snow board use, a certain number of different measurement locations, &c.)?
LL‘s location in the town of Benson in Hamilton County is no further away from Utica than some of the other snow totals that are provided regularly on your website. They got 12” from this storm, by the way.
Also, have you stopped using the official spotter reports on the NWS websites to fill out the totals list? I seem to remember your team providing that data previously… Most of the reporting coop stations for NWS Albany in Herkimer (eg, Little Falls) Hamilton (eg, Piseco) and Fulton counties (eg, Peck Lake) would still be considered part of WKTV‘s viewing area, I would think. Their inclusion might help WKTV‘s blog become even more of a “must visit” for us winter weather nuts! Regardless, it is still an invaluable resource for Central NY weather and much appreciated.
Posted January 29th at 1:11 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
I hope the Groundhog enjoys the 2nd because the storm for Tuesday and Wednesday has the potential to be a monster. The models are split on the track, the GFS has the storm past to our east. The Euro and Canadian favor a western setup. The way I see it there are three possible tracks 1) the system comes into the Great Lakes, 2) the system runs along the Appalachians, and 3) the system becomes a costal. Possibility The first scenario would keep us on the eastern side. Because of this CNY would see a lot of rain. With all the snow I think we would see at least minor flooding. The second would bring a lot of snow…The second possibility could cause blizzard conditions in some areas. The third scenario drops less snow north and west of the M.V. However the south and east could get buried (especially the Catskills). I don’t like the setup for this storm…. It will be similar to the 1993 storm of the century. That storm also formed over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico. Because it was able to tap into all that warm moisture; it raised havoc with the entire East Coast. I’m not saying this storm will be as bad as the 1993 storm. However the potential is there. This system will also have a lot of wind with it. No matter which track it takes this one will have to be watched closely.
Posted January 29th at 1:15 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
I picked up 4 inches of snow overnight…..Total snow is 10.3
Posted January 29th at 1:33 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Off and on very light snow showers this afternoon.
Posted January 29th at 1:44 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Just took a look at 3hr Flash Flood Guidance. It would take 2.50” inches of rain in less than three hours to trigger Flash Flooding for the valley. For the Adirondacks its running 3.50” inches.
Biggest threat in my opinion if a warmer scenario played out would be widespread ice jam flooding/ poor drainage flooding along with possible roof failures due to increased weight from the rain. In either scenario GET YOUR ROOFS SHOVELED!!!
If a colder scenario occurs you still end up with big problems, but we can always deal with the snow. Just looking at barometric pressure readings off the models, this storm could rival the V-DAY 2007 blizzard and comes close to the ‘93 monster. Again, I am ONLY just refering to strength from a pressure standpoint.
Again we are talking about a system that is 4-5 days out, so a ton of changes WILL occur between now and then. Either way there is the potential for something very big to occur next week, and I stress potential, so stay tuned!
Posted January 29th at 1:48 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
12Z Euro trended a little further east with the storm. This would bring a wintry mix more than a heavy rain. This set-up would be prime for significant lake snows.
Posted January 29th at 2:19 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Development is the key to the Tue/Wed storm. The longer it take to develop the further east it will track. If its in the GOM early in its development…. LOOK OUT
Posted January 29th at 2:44 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Evening, folks!
It‘s been a busy “housekeeping” afternoon in the weather center with one of our computers on the fritz.
I‘ll have an entry later this evening to address the lake effect potential for late tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Posted January 29th at 5:26 PM
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Matt(Marcy):
Storm total 7.5 inches
Lake Effect 5.4 inchesPosted January 29th at 5:56 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
BUFKIT and the NAM mesoscale model. show Fri/Sat as a fairly decent LES Event.
Posted January 29th at 6:40 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
I havent seen the euro today but i heard about it and if what they say is tru, i never seen a track up the east coast and then curve into upstate ny..That 2 me is just a wierd track.I just have a gut feeling the GFS is on the right track(could just be wishfull thinking) I have seen alot of METS talk about this storm and every 1 seem to think it can only pretty much be a coastal hugger, apps runner or the least likely GLC..
Posted January 29th at 7:06 PM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
I am making the total snow for the last event 8 inches. I don‘t know the # of the last event :-)
If I get around to do it, I am going to check the water content of the total.
Becky
Ya got any extra metal coffee cans???Posted January 29th at 7:49 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Last night picked up 1/2 inch, total snowfall was 8 inches.. Seasonal snowfall total 81 1/2 inches..
Posted January 29th at 7:56 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Art: At this time, I only have plastic ones.
Posted January 29th at 8:00 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
If this system realy gets ramped up I think the storm has a good chance to have a negative tilt
Posted January 29th at 8:18 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
The one thing I‘ve been noticing with some of the models is that it‘s very slow to move out. It basically crawls when it gets up here. The DGEX model has a 960 mb low right over Albany. That‘s just about a Cat 3 cane’.
Posted January 29th at 8:26 PM
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kim ( morris) :
Rob thanks for the snow report for speculator!!
Posted January 29th at 8:34 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Rob I‘ve noticed that too. This thing means business.
Posted January 29th at 8:34 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Your welcome Amy. Some of these snowbanks around here are starting to rival the Feb 2007 banks. The snowpack isn‘t as deep (yet) but it‘s been so cold nothing really got a chance to melt. Seasonal total here is 86.5” with a 20” snowpack.
Posted January 29th at 8:46 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I meant Kim, I have no idea where I got Amy from.
Posted January 29th at 8:49 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
To give a comparison The superstorm of march 93 had its lowest pressure reading on 14 March at 0000 UTC.... the reading was 960 mb. Therefore, this system has the potential to at least rival that monster.
Posted January 29th at 8:57 PM
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kathy in cedarville:
do you think the upcoming storm will be rain
Posted January 29th at 8:57 PM
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Justin(Whitesboro):
i hope the next runs move this monster more to the east. it‘s to close to us in the latest gfs runs. fingers crossed, i have been waiting for a storm like this for a few years now.
Posted January 29th at 9:00 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Rob: it‘s never a good idea to get your women mixed up :-)
Posted January 29th at 9:01 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Kathy: There is still a lot of uncertainty on the systems track. Right now nobody know there it is going. The rain/snow line will depend on the systems exact track.
Posted January 29th at 9:04 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
A very good MET from eastern thinks the final track will go threw albany, i guess a man can only dream..
Posted January 29th at 9:09 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I‘m waiting for the Euro to crank it to the right or left of it‘s current track. I don‘t think it has a handle on this yet. It‘s going to be interesting either way and we‘ll definitely get a good shot of snow at some point.
Posted January 29th at 9:13 PM
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Adam Musyt:
New entry up :-)
Posted January 29th at 9:19 PM
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babs:
Give WKTV a Brake the weather changes
Like the wind it’s not there fault I mean everytime the wind shifts are you going to blame them COME ON PEOPLE
Back off WKTVPosted November 10th at 6:35 PM
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babs:
Give WKTV a Brake the weather changes
Like the wind it’s not there fault I mean everytime the wind shifts are you going to blame them COME ON PEOPLE
Back off WKTVPosted November 10th at 6:35 PM
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Erich:
Webmaster – Please fix the date:
December (not January!)
Posted December 28th at 1:34 PM
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Erich:
Oops! Nevermind…
Posted December 28th at 1:35 PM
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December 28th, 1:35 PM
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Erich
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babs
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January 29th, 9:19 PM
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January 29th, 9:09 PM
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