Watching For a Squall

Posted January 19th, 2012 by Adam Musyt. 44 comments

Thanks to high pressure, much calmer conditions and fresh snowpack, temperatures have really tumbled across our area this evening.  As of 11 PM, the reading at Griffiss was 5 degrees.

 

Some sunshine will greet Central New Yorkers on their way to work and school on Thursday.  In fact, most of the daylight hours of Thursday will have uneventful weather with nothing more than a gradual increase in cloud cover.  That will change after sunset.

 

Already the next weather maker is rapidly approaching from the Upper Midwest in the form of a shortwave trough.  This feature will continue to trek eastward through the day.  Models show some intensification as well.  In fact, the latest run of the WRF shows the trough becoming "negatively tilted" (www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/) as it crosses our area.  This leads to greater instability and the potential of a gusty snow squall during the evening.  For most of our area, we're only expecting an inch or two of accumulation through the evening.  Keep in mind though that this may occur in only an hour or two and will likely be accompanied by gusty winds.

 

Some additional scattered snow showers will filter in for Thursday Night and early Friday as the lake effect machine briefly switches on.  Dry air will win the battle, much as it did today, by later Friday afternoon.

 

More widespread snow is possible by Saturday.  We'll iron out the details of the weekend forecast over the next couple of days.  In the meantime be alert for rapidly changing weather conditions for Thursday evening.

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  1. sue (fairfield):

    oh goodie Adam…. ; ) more wind…..just what i need…....a question though….with the snowstorms out west (state of Washington)....what happens to that….does it fizzle out before it gets here….

    Posted January 19th at 12:28 AM

  2. sue (fairfield):

    my low so far is 2*

    Posted January 19th at 12:42 AM

  3. Denys (East Winfield):

    2 degrees, clear with a light breeze.

    Posted January 19th at 5:03 AM

  4. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    -2 degrees, calm, clear.

    Posted January 19th at 5:05 AM

  5. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    -1 here and calm..

    Posted January 19th at 5:15 AM

  6. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    5* here. Nice crescent moon out there with the dark side of it clearly visible, pretty cool looking.

    Posted January 19th at 6:44 AM

  7. Rob (Whitesboro):

    What’s up with the excessive cold warnings in the N. Plains? I’ve nevere seen that before…and I know it’s been alot colder than that up there.

    Posted January 19th at 7:57 AM

  8. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Rob- it’s an experimental new warning that debuted a few weeks ago. Only select weather services are using it this winter (BGM, BUF, ALB are not). Basically, it’s when temperatures fall into ‘wind chill warning’ criteria, but without wind.

    Posted January 19th at 8:36 AM

  9. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Today’s video blog….

    http://www.wktv.com/weather/video-blog/Burst-of-snow-overnight-137660798.html

    Also, the snowfall map (may be updated before noon).

    http://wktv.bimedia.net/snowfall.jpg

    Posted January 19th at 10:01 AM

  10. Bill Kardas:

    12z data more bullish on the formation of a lake band after the frontal passage. This develops after midnight, and could produce an additional 1-3” behind the band. I’ll make amends to the current snowfall map to include this ‘bonus’ snowfall.

    Posted January 19th at 10:31 AM

  11. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    I meant to say behind the front.

    Posted January 19th at 10:32 AM

  12. JoMD (Fonda):

    Thanks for the weather lesson for today, Bill. Your efforts are appreciated!

    Posted January 19th at 10:46 AM

  13. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Snowfall map updated…link is the same as #9. Went a bit aggressive on this one…the pattern typically produces more fluff than the models are showing.

    Posted January 19th at 12:54 PM

  14. sue (fairfield):

    looks like the snow is moving in ahead of schedule ?......can use many more bonuses if you have them Bill…..my kids have no school tomorrow and need to be occupied ; )

    Posted January 19th at 1:57 PM

  15. Mel (Westernville):

    NWS must be expecting a little bonus snow as well as they just issued a winter weather advisory starting at 6 tonight for Southern Oneida County (Northern Oneida already had one)

    Posted January 19th at 2:41 PM

  16. Mel (Westernville):

    Snow has started here.

    Posted January 19th at 3:55 PM

  17. sue (fairfield):

    nothing here yet…radar says snow but my temp of 22 and dewpoint of 2 say another

    Posted January 19th at 4:13 PM

  18. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Thanks Bill. BUF is down to 1/8th mile visability. DBZ values are up to 35 with the squall line. Looks intense up north too right now. Nothing here yet.

    Posted January 19th at 5:29 PM

  19. Matt (Rochester):

    Snowing pretty good here right now. Been doing so for the last 45 minutes. Everything is covered but don’t think we’ve gotten to an inch yet. However, based on the radar haven’t gotten into the really heavy stuff yet.

    Posted January 19th at 6:13 PM

  20. Matt (Rochester):

    Bad news, the snow stayed pretty fine. Barely came out of it with an inch.

    Posted January 19th at 6:47 PM

  21. Rob (Whitesboro):

    The leading edge of the system is almost to Boston and I haven’t even had a flurry yet.

    Posted January 19th at 7:43 PM

  22. Adam Musyt:

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
    749 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

    NYZ006008-200215-
    OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
    749 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

    ...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
    REGION...

    A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE
    THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AROUND 8PM…THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
    REST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS BAND WILL
    PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES...
    RESULTING IN NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
    TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

    ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
    OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN
    INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH 9 PM.

    Posted January 19th at 7:54 PM

  23. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    It’s snowing here and the temp. is__23 degrees.

    Is there anyone out there that can tell me what the wind chill would be at 23* and a
    20 MPH wind. I know there is a formula but I don’t know what it is.
    Anyway, It’s cold out!

    Posted January 19th at 9:11 PM

  24. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I just saw a report of 8.0” in Boonville.

    Posted January 19th at 9:29 PM

  25. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Northern Oneida County until 09:00 AM

    Posted January 19th at 9:35 PM

  26. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Lewis County until 07:00 AM

    Posted January 19th at 9:50 PM

  27. Gordon (Northwestern):

    I left the Hide Away restaurant, just North of west Lyden about 8 PM, and there was 6-7“of fresh snow there.

    Posted January 19th at 10:48 PM

  28. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Finally seeing some flurries here. First time all night.

    Posted January 19th at 10:57 PM

  29. Piseco Lake (Hamilton County):

    6 1/2 inches in Piseco so far…

    Posted January 19th at 11:20 PM

  30. Adam Musyt:

    Finally into a heaveier burst of snow here at the station. Front is now crossing the Utica metro area. Wind direction at Rome has shifted to the west.

    Posted January 19th at 11:26 PM

  31. Adam Musyt:

    0.4” atop Smith Hill just within the last 20 minutes.

    Parking lot and roadways are getting covered quickly. Exercise caution, particularly in the higher elevations and North Country over the next few hours if you’ll be on the roadways.

    Posted January 19th at 11:40 PM

  32. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    9 degrees, moderate west wind, 1.1” of new snow.

    Posted January 20th at 5:18 AM

  33. Denys (East Winfield):

    10 degrees, 2” of new snow.

    Posted January 20th at 5:27 AM

  34. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    12” of snow in Boonville (4” additional overnight!).

    Posted January 20th at 5:39 AM

  35. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    1.5 of snow here 12 degrees.

    Posted January 20th at 5:53 AM

  36. Randy HP (Holland Patent):

    Good morning Bill. The 850 temps are typically the determinant factor for snow or not; correct?

    The GFS shows the purple 0 degree 850 temp line well east on CNY late Monday night and through Tuesday. Your forecast doesn’t show a cool down for Tuesday or Wednesday (only minimally). So the 850s are not what I am supposed to use to determine snow and cold?? Confused…..

    Posted January 20th at 6:09 AM

  37. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Randy- not quite that simple. The 850s are used to forecast maximum high temperatures, but only under dry, sunny, breezy conditions. We’ll have a huge inversion on Monday with an 850 temperature of +4 to +6. In ideal conditions, the maximum high would be 58.

    So in other words, there is a big cooldown.

    Posted January 20th at 6:19 AM

  38. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    17* here – only a 0.5” of new snow.

    Posted January 20th at 6:48 AM

  39. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Picked up 0.3” last night.

    Posted January 20th at 7:12 AM

  40. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    15° and 0.2” here overnight

    Posted January 20th at 7:19 AM

  41. MG (Point Rock):

    After hearing the reports from Boonville, I was surprised to measure only 4.0 inches here.

    Posted January 20th at 8:08 AM

  42. Randy HP (Holland Patent):

    Thanks Bill. So there isn’t a chance of accumulating snow on Tuesday or Wednesday?

    Posted January 20th at 8:52 AM

  43. anir (New York):

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    Posted January 20th at 11:48 PM

  44. Mike M (Cooperstown/Long Island):

    I live on Long Island but have a small place in Hartwick just south of Cooperstown. I was told this is the place for accurate information regarding weather conditions in the area. I am a weather buff myself and have been following comments on this blog for a while. Does any one know what kind of snowpack there is in Otsego county (Cooperstown). I did’nt have the property plowed this year and am dying to head up. I dont know if I can make it through the plow line on the side of the road, maybe there is’nt one! Any input would help. Thanks

    Posted January 26th at 8:56 AM

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