Unsettled Week Ahead

Posted February 17th, 2013 by Jill Reale. 82 comments

Outside of the light lake effect snow falling this evening, the weekend was relatively quiet across CNY. The big story tonight is the wind chill. Wind Chill Advisories have been issued for the viewing area until Monday morning. A strong low pressure system that brought snow once again to Boston and Cape Cod today (as well as North and South Carolina), is lifting to the north and east but the pressure gradient is so tight this evening that we are even feeling the effects of the storm in the way of wind. The highest wind gust today at KRME was 33MPH with sustained winds bwetween 20-25MPH. The pressure gradient will begin to loosen up during the overnight but with partly cloudy skies and winds 10-15MPH, it will not take much to have wind chills below zero. After tonight, all eyes focus on Tuesday.

An area of low pressure will track to our west, over the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. Out ahead of the front, warm air tries to push into the region Tuesday morning. With partly cloudy skies Monday evening, lows will fall back into the 20s before clouds build up. While the GFS and NAM push the precipitation arrival into the afternoon and evening, some freezing drizzle is possible Monday morning before temperatures warm up into the upper 30s. One thing to watch as well is if forcing out ahead of the system causes cooling in the atmosphere to keep precipitation in the solid form as snow or sleet. But by the time the brunt of the precipitation arrives in the afternoon, it will be in the form of rain before the cold front arrives Tuesday evening. Rain changes back to snow by Tuesday night with lake effect developing on Wednesday. Wednesday could be another windy day with lake effect snow over the Tug Hill during the day but could shift to a NW direction by Wednesday Night into Thursday. Still some question marks on the wind direction Wednesday. There is more potential for some snow for Friday and Saturday as well.

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  1. Chris (HP CoCoRahs) (Holland Patent):

    74.5 inches of snow for the season. Very cold and clear night out. Had some flurries this afternoon around 4:30 but was short lived. Lots of action this week with rain n snow.

    Posted February 17th at 10:14 PM

  2. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Seasonal Total: 67.7 inches

    Posted February 17th at 10:16 PM

  3. Bill Rockhill (Woodgate):

    It’s -6 degrees, clear and cold …...Bear Creek Road…Woodgate, New York….
    Almost 5am…....

    Posted February 18th at 4:40 AM

  4. Bill Rockhill (Woodgate):

    It’s -6 degrees, clear and cold …...Bear Creek Road…Woodgate, New York….
    Almost 5am…....

    Posted February 18th at 4:40 AM

  5. Denys (East Winfield):

    1 degree, light snow falling with a coating on the ground.

    Posted February 18th at 5:04 AM

  6. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    2 degrees, overcast, windy, .8” of wind blown snow.

    Posted February 18th at 5:07 AM

  7. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    5 degrees here this morning with a coating on the ground.

    Posted February 18th at 6:33 AM

  8. Gordon (Northwestern):

    -4 degrees last night. For some reason I think that may be my last below 0 reading of this season. Snow pack stands at 13”.

    Posted February 18th at 8:51 AM

  9. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Got down to 1 degree this morning. Seasonal snow total at 83.2”.
    Snowpack at a very solid 7.5”

    Hoping to add to the snow totals this week

    Posted February 18th at 9:25 AM

  10. Mel (Westernville):

    Seasonal total 87.3”, and a 12” snowpack. Hopefully we will pick up some LES this week. what a difference that sun angle makes on the driveway.

    Posted February 18th at 10:35 AM

  11. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The next 24 hours look pretty quiet. A warm front arrives tonight, but will likely not produce much precipitation. That goes against the norm around here – warm fronts typically produce light precipitation when they arrive…but the dry air mass in place will likely prevent any precipitation. Not a single model shows any QPF across the area. We’ll archive this in the back of our mind and look at the radar closely today in case this thought changes.

    As for Tuesday, temperatures likely climb well above freezing before the precipitation arrives in the afternoon – yeah we’re talking rain here. Even in the hilltops…initially. As colder air arrives with a cold front, the typical lake response will kick in – lake effect snow a good bet Tuesday night into Wednesday. It’s not very unstable on Wednesday, but there’s a lot more moisture to work with here – so I think several inches are possible closer to the lake shore. We’ll have a better grasp on this tomorrow when our confidence gets better.

    Posted February 18th at 11:25 AM

  12. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Hows BUFKIT looking Bill? I thought the flow /moisture and 850’s looked good on the NAM. Timing isn’t the greatest though.

    Posted February 18th at 11:26 AM

  13. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Rob – NAM BUFKIT keeps the wind flow ~ 270 through Wednesday afternoon. The band does meander south Wednesday afternoon & night. If that’s the case, the Tug Hill should do quite well.

    Posted February 18th at 12:27 PM

  14. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Thanks. Hopefully we can get winds to align at 290 right around sunset Wednesday. Looks like one of our better events minus the sun angle.

    Posted February 18th at 2:38 PM

  15. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch for Lewis County until 06:00 PM

    Posted February 18th at 3:50 PM

  16. Rob (Whitesboro):

    NAM looks a little warmer…which is good for snow growth. Still uncertain of exact wind flow but with all the shortwaves flying around we should do decent. Long range looks nice too with -NAO +PNA type pattern.

    Posted February 18th at 9:46 PM

  17. Adam Musyt:

    Flow has been bouncing around a bit from run to run. Based on the 00z model data it appears that the lake snow will get going late this (Tuesday) evening on a 260 orientation and then linger mostly across Lewis and far Northern Oneida through about Wednesday afternoon, Then, indications are we’ll see a wind shift and the band should drop southward toward the Thruway for Wednesday evening and the first part of Wednesday Night. Right now it appears that this is our best window of opportunity for a possible burst of snow around the Thruway corridor.

    Later Wednesday Night, and especially by Thursday daybreak the model (despite showing a favorable unidirectional WNW wind shear with ~20 kt winds at the surface at ~30kt winds aloft) suggests that the low level moisture will begin to go away as the inversion crashes to 900 mbar or about 1 km above ground level. Temperatures falling back into the low teens would tend to support this as our best lake effect events farther inland typically occur with warmer surface temps.

    By Thursday afternoon the wind field gets sheared apart. This should start to spell the end of any significant or organized LES.

    Again, just one model run and with lake effect a subtle wind shift could make a world of difference. We’ll continue to monitor over the next 24-36 hours.

    Posted February 19th at 1:23 AM

  18. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Lewis County until 07:00 PM

    Posted February 19th at 4:40 AM

  19. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    18 degrees, partly cloudy, light east wind.

    Posted February 19th at 5:09 AM

  20. Bill Rockhill (Woodgate):

    It’s a balmy 19 degrees , clear….feels humid….Bear Creek Road , Woodgate, New York…..no snow overnight..

    Posted February 19th at 5:16 AM

  21. Denys (East Winfield):

    23 degrees, clear with a very light wind.

    Posted February 19th at 5:28 AM

  22. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Keeping a sharp eye on the precipitation and temperatures today. The forecast models bring us several degrees above freezing locally before the precipitation arrives…but the models tend to have a bias towards warmer temperatures when an east wind is in the picture. Bottom line – be on the lookout for localized slippery spots early this afternoon with the onset of precipitation.

    Posted February 19th at 8:01 AM

  23. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It’s still 26 degrees here. The Tug is going to get clobbered. They get a half a foot of snow before the LES even starts.

    Posted February 19th at 10:03 AM

  24. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Syracuse just jumped 11 degrees in one hour. Doubt that happens to us.

    Posted February 19th at 10:11 AM

  25. Michael (Dolgeville):

    25 degrees here

    Posted February 19th at 10:37 AM

  26. Lori (Bridgeport):

    29 degrees and I have precip …...almost a mix of really small graupel and rain.

    Posted February 19th at 10:53 AM

  27. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Models stink today – thought we’d have more breathing room for rain despite the east wind with MOS numbers pushing 40 for this afternoon. Not gonna happen based on the current temperature trend. The precip is a bit ahead of schedule and should fall primarily as snow. Elmira checks in with 1/2” of snow, with the event about half over.

    The upper level temperatures should crash below freezing through the course of the day, putting an end to any potential mixing (sleet/freezing rain). We will continue to monitor the situation closely.

    Posted February 19th at 10:56 AM

  28. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    ^The models show the potential for sleet and freezing rain from now until 1pm.

    Posted February 19th at 10:57 AM

  29. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Sleet and freezing rain reported in Oneida.

    Posted February 19th at 11:18 AM

  30. Deb (Hartwick):

    44 degrees in Hartwick (Otsego County)@ 1550’..no precip yet.

    Posted February 19th at 11:20 AM

  31. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Deb – thanks for the post. That confirms that the air at 1550 is indeed warm enough to melt precipitation. Let us know when you fall below freezing.

    Posted February 19th at 11:26 AM

  32. Rob (Whitesboro):

    29 degrees here with light snow.

    Posted February 19th at 11:37 AM

  33. Michael (Dolgeville):

    27.3 degrees here @ 802’ft

    Posted February 19th at 11:43 AM

  34. sue (fairfield):

    nothing here yet….29/15 for temp and dew

    Posted February 19th at 11:44 AM

  35. Mel (Westernville):

    Light snow here.

    Posted February 19th at 11:52 AM

  36. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Light snow started about 11:45. Temp is 29.

    Posted February 19th at 11:52 AM

  37. Lori (Bridgeport):

    up to 31 with a mix of everything ..one minute snow, then sleet, then freezing rain, graupel …you name it …its coming down.

    Posted February 19th at 11:56 AM

  38. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Sleet in New Hartford, snow here on the hill. Think variety of weather today.

    Posted February 19th at 12:02 PM

  39. Deb:

    down to 40 degrees…..

    Posted February 19th at 12:07 PM

  40. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    All snow here..32 here.

    Posted February 19th at 12:45 PM

  41. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Snow has been picking up here. Road is covered.

    Posted February 19th at 12:53 PM

  42. CJ (Little Falls):

    In Herkimer right now….light flurries coming down.

    Posted February 19th at 1:00 PM

  43. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Sleet and freezing rain here at 32*

    Posted February 19th at 1:03 PM

  44. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Moderate snowfall right now. 1.1” of snow as of 1:45 PM. Temp up to 30.

    Posted February 19th at 1:50 PM

  45. Michael (Dolgeville):

    27.7 degrees with steady light snow. Roads are covered.

    Posted February 19th at 2:06 PM

  46. Lori (Bridgeport):

    temp up to 38 ! ....still switching back and forth between rain and big flakes of snow….not sure if I heard thunder or if its the lake ice shifting ….have a huge pressure ridge that has developed over the last couple of days which started with a sonic boom !

    Posted February 19th at 2:10 PM

  47. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Heavy snow here. Just measured 0.5”

    Posted February 19th at 2:17 PM

  48. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Up to 2.3” of snow as of 2:45 PM. THAT GIVES ME 1.2” in the last hour.

    Posted February 19th at 2:57 PM

  49. sue (fairfield):

    been snowing up here for a while now too….rt 28 going north is covered and rather slick…..my road…..still not plowed

    Posted February 19th at 3:01 PM

  50. Mel (Westernville):

    2.5” as of 3:00.

    Posted February 19th at 3:07 PM

  51. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    Been snowing here for a few hours now in the village and kind of pouring snow for the last 40 minutes or so. Closing in on an inch.

    Posted February 19th at 3:36 PM

  52. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Northern Oneida County until 07:00 PM

    Posted February 19th at 3:40 PM

  53. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Just measured 2.0” here. Light snow still falling.

    Posted February 19th at 4:05 PM

  54. Gordon (Northwestern):

    3.7” as of 4 PM. More snow then I thought we would get today. High temp today has been 30. I guess the warm temps aren’t going to make it here.

    Posted February 19th at 4:13 PM

  55. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Just rain here 0.06” at 35*

    Posted February 19th at 4:28 PM

  56. Mel (Westernville):

    Just went out to measure again and an even 4” as of 4:30pm and 29 degrees

    Posted February 19th at 4:34 PM

  57. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Traffic is backed up on 49 again from a few accidents.

    Posted February 19th at 4:36 PM

  58. Gordon (Northwestern):

    One last update for the 5 PM news. 4.1” as of 4:40 PM.

    Posted February 19th at 4:40 PM

  59. Tim (Salisbury):

    Temps in the 20s,full blown snow storm going on here in my part of Salisbury! I guess Rain & 30s as forecasted is not going to happen. Ughh!

    Posted February 19th at 4:45 PM

  60. Holland Patent (Holland Patent):

    3.5 going on 4 in Holland Patent.

    Forecast was for 3 Total here.

    Posted February 19th at 5:11 PM

  61. mike w (HERKIMER):

    1.25” so far in east herkimer..

    Posted February 19th at 5:17 PM

  62. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    My mother-in-law just stopped over, she works in downtown Utica and her car was covered in snow. It seems like I’m the only person getting rain. I’m at 36*

    Posted February 19th at 5:20 PM

  63. Lori (Bridgeport):

    Im just rain too ….had a quick coating of the “mixture” of junk ..then back to rain …no accumulation of any snow…temp is 37….will get very slippery when the temps drop tho…

    Posted February 19th at 5:43 PM

  64. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It’s a winter wonderland here. Snow is sticking to everything. It’s 32 degrees here.

    Posted February 19th at 5:46 PM

  65. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    Still pounding down snow here, about 3 inches now. Quite surprising, i thought it would have faded out an hour ago at least.

    Posted February 19th at 5:56 PM

  66. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    Very large flakes now as well, just pouring down.

    Posted February 19th at 6:02 PM

  67. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Flakes are quarter sized and even a bit larger. Ratio’s arn’t the greatest though. Visability here is 1/8th of a mile.

    Posted February 19th at 6:05 PM

  68. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    A solid 4” here with heavy snow falling… flakes are HUGE!!!

    Posted February 19th at 6:26 PM

  69. Michael (Dolgeville):

    3.0” inches here. Roads are snow covered and slick!

    Posted February 19th at 6:26 PM

  70. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Storm total here is 3.4”. Griffis AFB reporting 4.5”

    Posted February 19th at 6:42 PM

  71. Adam Musyt:

    Well. Wasn’t that fun? Lol. Back edge of the steady snow now lifting to the northeast of Utica. Any additional accumulations this evening should be an inch or less.

    Next thing to tackle is the lake effect.

    Posted February 19th at 6:51 PM

  72. Mel (Westernville):

    Measured an even 5” at 6:30 when I went out to plow. Will get an accurate snow pack tomorrow in the daylight but up around 17’.

    Posted February 19th at 6:56 PM

  73. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    I got somewhere between a trace and a dusting.

    Posted February 19th at 7:13 PM

  74. Adam Musyt:

    2.75” is the measurement here at the station.

    Posted February 19th at 7:48 PM

  75. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Ended up 5.3” of snow. Cold front must have went through at about 7PM, as the snow just about stopped, the wind went into the West, and the temperature rose from 30 degrees at 7 PM UP TO 33 degrees at 7:15 PM. I always found it strange that quite often when a cold front first goes through the temperature will rise a few degrees before it starts falling.

    Posted February 19th at 8:01 PM

  76. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like another round is moving in. It’s been steady at 32 here.

    Posted February 19th at 8:11 PM

  77. mike w (HERKIMER):

    2” so far in east herkimer, had a little sleet at the tail end..Looks like a nice burst of snow just to the west..

    Posted February 19th at 9:11 PM

  78. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Final total 3.9” here. Not alot of qpf tomorrow but ratios should be 25:1. Strong shortwave comes in too during the evening. That’ll be interesting

    Posted February 19th at 9:52 PM

  79. Chris (HP CoCoRahs) (Holland Patent):

    6 inches of heavy snow so far today. Snow has been steady and heavy at times. Moderate snow bursts now and winds are a factor. Will update snow pack in the morning. Roads were darn near impassable earlier this evening as no agency was plowing especially the city of Utica, the state DOT was not out and neither was Oneida County. Will update totals in the am

    Posted February 19th at 10:00 PM

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