Typical January Thaw

Posted January 6th, 2013 by Jill Reale. 31 comments

 

Well the snow was fun while it lasted. The snow pack has significantly decreased in the Mohawk Valley over the weekend and looks to do so into next week. Monday will be the last day with high temperatures near or below the freezing mark for at least a week. A large area of high pressure builds in across the Great Lakes into the East by Monday afternoon, bringing drier and sunnier weather back in Central NY. A strong warm front pushes rain in by Friday, with 850mb temperatures soaring to +8 to +10° by Saturday and Sunday before a potent cold front puts an end to the January Thaw. Numerous people have asked if this is normal and the short answer is: yes. I looked back over the past 10 years and there was a January thaw every year. While some years lasted a week, other years saw temperatures in the 60s! Here is a look back:

 

January 2012:  6th-11th High temperatures in the mid to upper 40s

2011:  1st: 51° 2nd: 46°

2010: 24th: 39° 25th: 49°

2009: 23rd: 44° 24th: 35°

2008: 8th: 67° 9th: 60°

2007: 4th: 53° 5th: 59° 6th: 62°

2006: 20th: 51° 21st: 53°

2005: 13th: 61° 14th: 61°

2004: 3rd: 54° 4th: 46°

 

The years that stick out were 2008 (both days records were broken) and 2007 (warmth before the infamous February Storm/LES event). While we are losing our snow pack, indications show more arctic air and a blocking pattern arriving for the second half of the month, so enjoy it while you can!

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Comments

  1. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Sorry so late but seasonal snowfall for N.Marcy (town park area 900’ elevation) is 42.9”

    Posted January 6th at 10:34 PM

  2. Michael (Dolgeville):

    Seasonal snowfall total here is 23.25” inches.

    Posted January 6th at 11:27 PM

  3. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Seasonal snowfall- 48.3”
    Weekly snowfall- 1.9”

    Still 10” on the ground.

    Posted January 6th at 11:29 PM

  4. Denys (East Winfield):

    25 degrees, overcast and blustery. A light dusting of new snow on the ground.

    Darn it, forgot to give my total last night.
    Seasonal snowfall is 40” even.

    Posted January 7th at 5:01 AM

  5. Norm (Floyd, NY):

    30* here this morning.

    Sky is overcast, wind calm.

    Posted January 7th at 5:02 AM

  6. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    27 degrees,overcast, blustery, with a light dusting here also.

    Posted January 7th at 5:06 AM

  7. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Be aware for the possibility of patchy black ice this morning. We saw above freezing temperatures last night, but a cold front arriving this morning has dropped us below freezing. With temperatures bouncing above and below freezing this week, we’ll run the risk for more black ice – especially near daybreak.

    Posted January 7th at 5:36 AM

  8. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    25 degrees here this morning.

    Posted January 7th at 6:02 AM

  9. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Snowpack down to 9” here this morning. Looks like a boring week ahead as we watch it melt. Friday morning could be interesting with freezing rain. We’ll see what the NAM says tonight.

    Posted January 7th at 8:02 AM

  10. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Worth passing along from NWS Albany:

    ...WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE BLACK ICE THIS MORNING...

    TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
    EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTED A
    LITTLE MELTING OF SNOW WHICH IN TURN...KEPT MANY SURFACES WET.

    THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES BY DAWN.
    THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THE WET SURFACES TO TURN TO BLACK ICE.

    BLACK ICE WILL BE SPOTTY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY RAMPS AND
    UNTREATED SURFACES...INCLUDING WALKWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

    PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING DRIVING AND WALKING...ALLOWING A LITTLE EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
    ANTICIPATE CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS.

    Posted January 7th at 8:11 AM

  11. Mel (Westernville):

    Since yesterday mornings post picked up another couple of inches making seasonal total 49.9”. Looks like it will be staying there for a while now.

    Posted January 7th at 8:32 AM

  12. MG (Point Rock):

    Snow came down heavily for a while last evening — on radar it seemed a pretty small patch. Measured 4.4” for the last 24 hrs. Never got above freezing here. No black ice, only snow on the roads

    Posted January 7th at 8:58 AM

  13. MG (Point Rock):

    Season total 70.5”, snowpack at 19.5”

    Posted January 7th at 9:00 AM

  14. brian(edmeston cntr) (Edmeston):

    It barely got below freezing until four o clock this morning ( finally got to30 degrees). It was 34 @ 2 in the morning this Monday morning.

    Big temperature differential driving from Edmeston to Cooperstown. Cooperstown was 8 degrees colder with the sun coming up. Basically it has not been cold enough to keep snow frozen in Edmeston since Saturday morning, but for a couple hours this morning before sunrise.

    How does the past10 years of typical compare with the previous 90 or even 40 years in terms of a January thaw?

    Posted January 7th at 9:29 AM

  15. Lori (Bridgeport):

    very fine flurries going on here….temp has dropped even further from this morning….down to 26 now.

    Posted January 7th at 9:35 AM

  16. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Brian – did some number crunching of January thaws since 1971. Some interesting stats here. I took the three warmest days of the month for all years between 1971-2012 and here are the numbers:

    Average warmest high temp: 51°
    2nd warmest high tempe: 47°
    3rd warmest high temp: 43°

    So, not only do we typically have a thaw in January, but it’s quite common to get a day or two above 50°. I know, hard to believe, but stats don’t pick sides in a snow lover’s quarrel.

    As far as trends go, the 1970s and especially 1990s had frequent and more intense thaws compared to the 1980s. The 2000s were more dramatic years (some have BIG thaws like 2008, other years had hardly any like 2009).

    Out of the 40+ years studied, only one year did not see above freezing temperatures for the entire month – 1977. Surprisingly, 2003 was the runner up (warmest of month was 36°).

    Posted January 7th at 11:20 AM

  17. brian(edmeston cntr) (Edmeston):

    Wow, thanks for your response.

    I was thinking using only10 years of data was not a good measure. This at least provides greater cover to the data.

    Posted January 7th at 1:08 PM

  18. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Brian,
    I only used 10 years of data to not make a huge long list on the blog. Plus, people seem to have a short term memory when it comes to weather :)

    Posted January 7th at 2:22 PM

  19. weatherjan-Oneida (Oneida):

    The winter of ’76/77 was a tough one. I measured over 300” in Boonville, NY. On the other hand, I remember 25 January 1967 when the temp. reached a record breaking 70F iin Syracuse. There was a four day stretch of 60F+ temps from 13 – 16 Jan. ’95 in Syracuse.

    Posted January 7th at 5:03 PM

  20. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    22 degrees, clear, some wind.

    Posted January 8th at 5:12 AM

  21. Denys (East Winfield):

    Ditto Tom! 22 degrees, clear with some wind here too!

    Posted January 8th at 5:19 AM

  22. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    HUGE range in temperature this morning – hilltops in the 20s, valleys in the single digits. Blame it on radiational cooling again.

    Posted January 8th at 5:58 AM

  23. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    15* here.

    Posted January 8th at 7:04 AM

  24. MG (Point Rock):

    Temp is +1 here

    Posted January 8th at 8:02 AM

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