Typical CNY style summer weather

Posted August 9th, 2010 by Bill Kardas. 41 comments

We're now entering mid August, meaning there's only a few more weeks of summer left.  It will continue to stay warm and humid over the next few days, with the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Trigger

For today, a weak disturbance will pass through Central New York.  We use the term disturbance to describe something that could trigger a shower or thunderstorm, but doesn't change the airmass that's already in place.  Disturbances are much weaker than things like cold fronts, but they can still cause storms.  Remember, thunderstorms need instability and a trigger to form.

Instability

For today, our forecasted CAPE climbs to about 800j/kg.  The Lifted Index climbs to about -2.  These numbers are not impressive.  There is adequate wind shear today, and the Bulk Richardson Number is about 20 by the afternoon.  This means that there's an outside threat for severe weather.  The bigger question though is can we get those storms to form this afternoon?  I think it will be a close call, and foresee some areas getting hit while other areas miss out.  Climatologically speaking, the best areas to form storms are along the hilltops (orographic lifting) and closer to the lake shore (lake breeze).  These areas have the best chance of seeing some wet weather today.  The best time for this to happen would be during the peak heating of the day (2pm-7pm).

Tags:

Add a Comment

Comments

  1. Becky (West Leyden):

    Great write up, the area is at a very slight risk for organized severe weather. however someone could see a strong storm late this afternoon. tomorrow the humidly and heat comes back. the far North Country will have the best chance of seen strong storms tomorrow.

    Posted August 9th at 12:44 PM

  2. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It’s 85/68 here. RUC has CAPE over 1000 now. The sun has been out all day here except for right now.

    Posted August 9th at 1:29 PM

  3. Jill Reale (Utica):

    One cell has popped up for Oswego County, heading towards Southern Lewis.

    Posted August 9th at 3:38 PM

  4. Sar:

    Jill— is severe weather a big concern for today?

    Posted August 9th at 3:52 PM

  5. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Sar:

    The severe weather threat looks slim to none for this evening as the bulk of the activity is still well to our west.

    Posted August 9th at 4:19 PM

  6. Becky (West Leyden):

    Yeah, we get a few rumbles of thunder.

    Sar, there is a slight chance for one or two strong storms, However, there’s not enough instability overhead for anything wide spread

    Posted August 9th at 4:22 PM

  7. Becky (West Leyden):

    Getting some thunder

    Posted August 9th at 4:26 PM

  8. Becky (West Leyden):

    getting a few pings of pea size hail

    Posted August 9th at 4:36 PM

  9. Becky (West Leyden):

    Cell entering Essex county is flagging 1.5 inch hail

    Posted August 9th at 5:28 PM

  10. Becky (West Leyden):

    Also, cell in central Herkimer County is very strong.

    Posted August 9th at 5:30 PM

  11. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Becky,

    That cell is flagging 0.75” hail and is heading toward Old Forge.

    Posted August 9th at 5:32 PM

  12. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    Seeing a few storms popping up with some heavier rain coming across lake ontario.. Lots of lightning strikes across the lake now and pushing east. showers and storms just north and west of me.

    Posted August 9th at 5:37 PM

  13. Becky (West Leyden):

    Thanks Jill, has anyone confirmed hail with that cell? On radar it looked like a decent hail core.

    Posted August 9th at 6:24 PM

  14. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Few rumbles here. This is turning into quite a rain event. Should easily pick up at least a half inch or so.

    Posted August 9th at 6:25 PM

  15. Becky (West Leyden):

    getting more thunder

    Chris you can say that again, my Boltec is going crazy : )

    Posted August 9th at 6:27 PM

  16. Becky (West Leyden):

    Rob, so far I’ve picked up almost one quarter of an inch. Right now it’s coming down Cats and Dogs.

    Posted August 9th at 6:31 PM

  17. Becky (West Leyden):

    As of now rain total is 0.39”

    Posted August 9th at 6:33 PM

  18. Becky (West Leyden):

    up to 0.49”

    Posted August 9th at 6:54 PM

  19. MG(Point Rock):

    Seems that every cell heads for my house. I just measured 1.13” of precip. And it looks like a lot more is on the way.

    Posted August 9th at 7:05 PM

  20. fairfield:

    .58 so far, still raining, lighting hit the barn earlier too….what a crack!

    Posted August 9th at 7:21 PM

  21. John (Ohio):

    I am in Central Herkimer County, no more than on/off light rain since 530 or so

    Posted August 9th at 7:59 PM

  22. Becky (West Leyden):

    0.74” here

    fairfield, I hope your barn is OK

    Posted August 9th at 9:17 PM

  23. Bob ( Cooperstown):

    .48 inches of rain… certainly seemed like more!

    Posted August 9th at 10:10 PM

  24. Bob ( Cooperstown):

    .48 inches of rain… certainly seemed like more!

    Posted August 9th at 10:10 PM

  25. fairfield:

    Becky, lightinging rods, thats what makes it crack so loud, if your close to the barn you can hear the lightinging go through the wire, zzzzz! .74 here too for rain from yesterday

    Posted August 10th at 9:54 AM

  26. Becky (West Leyden):

    Looks like a couple of disturbances will be coming through today, the one later this afternoon should cause at least a couple of thunderstorms especially across the North Country.

    fairfield, glad everything is alright.

    Posted August 10th at 10:58 AM

  27. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Instability looks just as high as it was yesterday…except I havent even had a peak of sunshine yet. Picked up 0.45” lastnight here. It’s 74/69 right now.

    Posted August 10th at 11:10 AM

  28. Becky (West Leyden):

    Same up here Rob, no sun rays in sight. I think we will see some clearing, just don’t know how much. I guess we will have to wait and see how much lift we get later this afternoon.

    Posted August 10th at 11:49 AM

  29. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    It’s definately still humid out there even though we can’t seem to bust out of low level moisture this morning. Given the still high sun angle in early August, we should see at least partly sunny skies this afternoon. The “cold” front that comes through today is super weak. It will lower our temperature by perhaps 1-2 degrees, and take 2-4 degrees off the dew point. Big whoop :) Still…it may be just enough to generate a thunderstorm or two today.

    Posted August 10th at 12:14 PM

  30. Becky (West Leyden):

    Sun is starting to burn through the cloud cover.

    Temp is 75/72

    Posted August 10th at 1:41 PM

  31. Becky (West Leyden):

    Cells SW of Ottawa looks to impact the far North Country in the next 60-90 min. Have to see how it holds together after we loose the Sun.

    Posted August 10th at 6:37 PM

  32. Becky (West Leyden):

    A line is affecting Jefferson County and will soon be in Oswego County

    Posted August 10th at 8:36 PM

  33. Matt(Marcy):

    No rain at all and a great end to the day! Those storms dropping straight south seems unusual. I haven’t seen that in a while

    Posted August 10th at 8:54 PM

  34. JmD (Fonda):

    FYI-PERSEID METEOR SHOWER Peaks Thursday…best viewing of the shooting stars is between midnight and dawn on Thursday, and again between midnight and dawn Friday morning. Look to the northeast and be far from light pollution (in the country away from city lights) for best viewing. In optimum viewing conditions, that’s clear, haze free skies away from city lights, anywhere from 60-100 meteors per hour will be visible.
    .
    Weather: It continues to appear that some level of at least occasional cloudiness will be present during this meteor shower which will hamper viewing.

    Posted August 10th at 9:13 PM

  35. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    Watching the rain and inbedded storms up to the north.. waiting to see if we get a little rain out of this or will it stay of to our west and sink south ??? had about a half inch with the storms that came through last night

    Posted August 10th at 9:53 PM

  36. Becky (West Leyden):

    Chris, that line will stay on its SSE trek. However the atmosphere is just slightly unstable so it should weaken, I don’t think Oneida County will see much more than some rain showers out of it.

    Posted August 10th at 10:36 PM

  37. fairfield:

    really foggy up here 65/64

    Posted August 11th at 7:21 AM

  38. Summer lovin:

    WOW! I have loved this weather this summer. However, we all know, all good things must come to end! As you look at the patterns over the next few weeks, is there any end is sight? School starts soon and schools heat up very quickly. It would be nice to get some cooler days, or at least days with less humidity. Thoughts?

    Posted August 11th at 10:27 PM

  39. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Summer lovin: The Climate Prediction Center is calling for above average temperatures for the next three months. So aside from a cool day here or there, I think the 80+ degree days should continue for the rest of the month. It has been a very warm Summer, but i’m with you, it has been great and SO much better than last summer!

    Posted August 12th at 12:08 AM

  40. Becky (West Leyden):

    Summer, to add to what Michael said, the extended long-range ECMWF model shows the warm and humid weather going through at least the first week of September. I think the Summer like weather will last past the middle of September. Also, because of the developing LA NINA the Fall looks to be warmer than normal.

    Posted August 12th at 1:37 AM

  41. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    I agree with Mike and Becky. Warm ocean temperatures across the Gulf and Atlantic will influence the jet stream pattern, likely keeping us warmer than normal into fall.

    By the way, tropical depression #5 got ripped apart last night by wind shear. The going NWS forecast for a very active hurricane season has not come to fruition at this point. The worst of the hurricane season traditionally is between now and late September, so if we don’t see a significant increase in activity that forecast will not work out.

    Posted August 12th at 6:34 AM

Add a Comment

Only registered accounts may post comments to the blog. To register a new account or login, select the appropriate link in the header and follow the instructions. (note: all accounts are subject to approval by WKTV.)

↑ Back to Top

Recent Comments on this Entry

Recent Entries

Top 5 Tags