Tricky storm forecast less than 24 hours out...
Posted February 7th, 2013 by Bill Kardas. 168 comments
Rapid developments over the past 48 hours in the forecasting world all thanks to a complex snowfall unfolding on Friday. Here are some of the latest details -
-Steady light snow begins after dark, a trace to 2" of accumulation by 7am Friday morning
-Light to moderate snow through the early afternoon as a coastal low approaches
-Heaviest snow falls Friday evening, especially east of Utica
-Blustry conditions & blowing snow Saturday
This setup involves two storm systems. A land locked low pressure center will arrive from the west tonight, bringing light snow to the area. Late Friday, a coastal low approaches, and combines energy with the earlier low. The energy transfor will bring a shot of energy to the coastal low, allowing for strong winds and heavy snow to fall in New England.
It's becoming clearer now that the coastal low will be the dominant storm. The track of the low is very important in spelling out which area in the Northeast gets hit the hardest. As of Thursday morning, somewhere between Albany and Boston will take the brunt of the accumulation. We are on the outside of the heavy bands, but should squeeze out at least several inches. Be sure to check out the latest snowfall maps posted in the comments section.
The toughest part of the forecast is the track of the coastal storm. A close approach as seen on the NAM would bring nearly a foot of snow to the area. The farther eastern track of the GFS and EURO robs CNY of heavy snow...with totals much closer to 6". We'll keep fine tuning the forecast, as we've seen plenty of changes even this close to the event.
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