A very heavy wet snow fell during the overnight period. Most areas did pick up between 2-4" of a very heavy snow, with between 4-6" in the eastern part of our viewing area (Eastern Herkimer, Otsego County). We hit the low end of our forecast range, and a lot of it had to do with temperatures. Temperatures did not fall much below freezing last night, and at times some raindrops mixed in with the snow. This kept the accumulations down. The heavy snow is sticking to everything outside, so it will make for a nice winter wonderland this morning.
Light snow and even a few rain showers are expected for the remainder of the day. Snow will have difficult time accumulating during the daylight hours with temperatures above freezing. It may even mix and/or turn over to rain at times this afternoon. A few snow showers are possible tonight before the next storm arrives.
Precipitation
The big event arrives here on Thursday. The GFS has slightly speed up the arrival time of this storm, arriving as early as tomorrow afternoon. Precipitation looks to start out as all snow for all of Central New York, and it will be quite heavy on the onset of the event. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be important to watch, as they are expected to go above freezing before the storm begins. Like we saw with the previous storm, the initial round of snow will be a heavy wet snow. We expect the snow to start quick and to start heavy, so it shouldn't be tough to get the snow to stick during the beginning of the event. A quick few inches (perhaps more) are possible for the Thursday evening commute.
Things change by Thursday night. As the storm intensifies, warm air on the right side of the storm will wrap around the storm and pull as far inland as Central New York. We are seeing the possibility of this happening on the BUFKIT temperature profile. Check it out on the image above. This is a map of how the temperature is changing from the ground up for every hour between 7PM (right hand side) and 1am Friday (left hand side). In order for snow to change to sleet, the upper part of the atmosphere has to go above freezing (0°C). As highlighted, temperatures near 850mb briefly go above freezing during the peak intensity of this storm, sometime Thursday evening.
The best chance for the changeover to sleet would be from Utica to the east and north. This is based on the orientation of the tilted storm. It's unusual, but possible for the Adirondacks to see sleet yet parts of Pennsylvania to stay all snow.
Based on the given data and intensity of precipitation during this part of the storm, we estimate a reduction in about 30% of the total snowfall due to mixed precipitation. This will change as new information comes in. In our experience whenever there seems to be the chance of mixed precipitation, more often than not it finds a way to happen. We'll continue to keep a sharp eye on this and give you the latest thoughts as we get more information.
As for totals, the QPF has ranged somewhere between 0.75"-1.25". In order to figure out how much snow we could see, we have to resolve the sleet issue. At this point, it looks to be at least several inches, but we'll wait for one more model run (12z) before we make the call.
Winds
The pressure fields in this storm will plummet as the storm intensifies. When the pressure in a storm drops 24mb in 24 hours, the storm is considered a meteorological "bomb". Our forecast models are predicting the storm to drop from 1008mb on Wednesday night to less than 986mb on Thursday night (22mb...so it will be close).
With the pressure dropping that quickly, the pressure gradient (the change in pressure over distance) will strengthen tremendously across the northeast. Pressure gradient is a force that drives wind. With a strong gradient, wind speeds will likely exceed 30-40mph at times especially Thursday night into Friday. A look at the BUFKIT profile shows winds peaking around Thursday night through Friday morning. Winds at 2000 feet elevation (900mb) are forecasted to become sustained at 40mph. If these winds mix down to the surface, winds may gust over 40mph at times during the strongest part of the storm. The winds will gradually decrease Friday as the storm weakens and the pressure gradient relaxes.
Other things to watch
The heavy, wet snow coupled with the strong winds does put the potential on the table for isolated power outages. While we aren't terribly concerned with this scenario at this point, it is something to bear watching and to keep in mind as we head closer to this storm. The heavy wet snow will also make traveling conditions very tricky Thursday evening and Friday morning. We'll continue to keep you posted with the latest on the storm throughout the day.
Comments
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
We got 1.5” of wet snow this morning.
That stuff is sure heavy, it shovels off the deck just like a big thick pie crust.
The temp is 34* here. The hand on the barometor is still in the same place 29.9
Posted February 24th at 8:35 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
The storm track itself will dictate where the sleet will occur. If the storm jogs to the south and west, there’s a better chance of sleet. A jog to the north and east would up our chances for all snow. That’s important to watch going forward.
Posted February 24th at 8:50 AM
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Oriskany resident:
Flocks of robins were seen today in Oriskany.
Posted February 24th at 8:57 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Looks like the warm air is going to follow the valley in just like an east wind….....
Think that areas south and west of Utica and higher elevations are going to hit jackpot with this next storm, just my take on it…...
I would much rather have spring then this nearly impossible to move heavy snow!
Posted February 24th at 8:57 AM
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dcg Rome:
Posted February 24th at 9:06 AM
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dcg Rome:
Bill,
In your write up above you mentioned winds and meteorological “bomb” is that bomb as in the storm will die out or bomb as in we’re going to get hit hard??
Thanks!!
Posted February 24th at 9:09 AM
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Brian (Lairdsville):
1.8 inches over night. dcg the bomb out means it’s quickly intensifying, getting stronger.
Posted February 24th at 9:15 AM
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Pat (Fort Plain):
We were on the Western end of the heavier precip.
About 5 inches of VERY heavy snow. The tree limbs are bent about as far as they can go. If the next storm brings the same p-type and high winds, we could be in for major power outages.Posted February 24th at 9:27 AM
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rjnavyboy:
7” thus far in the hills of Poland
Posted February 24th at 9:41 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Looks like the NAM brings the storm just east of Long Island before it curvs back around. And as always, the sleet line flirts with our area. I still can’t see any more than 6” from this.
Posted February 24th at 9:56 AM
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dcg Rome:
Brian,
Thanks!!
Very exciting…can’t wait to see how it pans out.Posted February 24th at 9:57 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
12z NAM is in and the storm track is a bit further to the north and east (better for snow). Waiting on the 12z GFS...
Posted February 24th at 10:24 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
The snows are still going strong in the Capital District. My parents picked up 7.0” of snow in Troy so far, with heavy snow continuing.
Posted February 24th at 10:26 AM
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Clifford (Garrattsville, Otsego):
Just looked at the radar Bill, they are getting hammered. Sure wouldn’t want to be on I 90 or Mass Turnpike today. Storm moving very slow out there.
Posted February 24th at 10:32 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
The sleet zone on the 12z BUFKIT profile is skinnier than the 00z profile. It’s still there, but it’s not as pronounced. We’ll likely keep it on the table. If it doesn’t happen in Utica it may still happen down the Mohawk Valley and/or points northward.
Posted February 24th at 10:36 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
I am still on the board for this to be the storm to remember. Its going to get big fast and with all this snow (and the much more coming) on the trees and lines, and with the wind, I have a feeling that the power companies and the fire departments are going to stay very busy. Its not good either, I have to have a kidney stent removed tomorrow at 1pm.
Posted February 24th at 10:39 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Suburban Albany is getting clobbered. I saw a report of 24.6” in Altamont and that was about 4 hours ago.
Posted February 24th at 10:39 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Looks like both models give us 1.25” of liquid. Even if that was all snow that would equal 8”. Add in a little bit of sleet and we don’t reach Warning criteria. Although this is a high impact event…will probably see a Warning issued.
Posted February 24th at 10:50 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
New GFS is in and wow…this is going to be a really close call. This is not the kind of model run a snow lover would want to see. GFS is much more aggressive with the warm air, causing a changeover in the lower Hudson Valley to plain rain. With the warm air driving that far west, it’s going to be hard to keep this all snow even here in the Mohawk Valley.
Posted February 24th at 10:53 AM
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dcg rome:
Bill,
are you thinking this will not be as “big’ of an event as first anticipated??Posted February 24th at 10:56 AM
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SteveH(Tully):
Bill,
What about points westward…say south of Syracuse (Tully)? Less of a chance for a changeover? Is this going to be one of those elevation-dependent storms?How does this impact the Poccono region? (brother-in-law coming up for the SU game)
Posted February 24th at 10:58 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
DCG,
This will be a big event, but there are questions about snow totals. Winds will be strong regardless of the precipitiation type.
SteveH,
Poccono region gets hit hard with snow…no sleet to worry about there. Perhaps a foot or more of snow there.
Posted February 24th at 11:14 AM
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Shaun (Mohawk Valley):
Still unsure about the Mohawk Valley correct?
Posted February 24th at 11:26 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Shaun,
The 12z data is shedding light on the situation. Making the call and snow map now…
Posted February 24th at 11:35 AM
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Shaun (Mohawk Valley):
Thanks Bill. Keep up the great work!
Posted February 24th at 11:36 AM
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Dibble:
Cudos… keep us hopeful snowmobilers up to speed!
Posted February 24th at 11:39 AM
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dcg rome:
Thanks Bill,
Really would be nice to see at least one “big” snow event this year. :-)Posted February 24th at 11:42 AM
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Jean:
Is this third storm supposed to be taking place mostly in the day tomorrow, or more late Thursday night into Friday? I have heard differing reports and just wanted to know what to expect. Thanks!
Posted February 24th at 11:42 AM
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kim west winfield:
snow just started here, everyone wishing for atleast a foot for THE START of our snowmobile season. Keep our fingers crossed for the BOMB!!
Posted February 24th at 11:43 AM
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Amy (Salisbury):
We picked up 6” overnight. I had 9” in my driveway from early yesterday morning through this morning. In my mind that would make WKTV’s forcast of 8” for my area an exact hit!! Go WKTV! I trust no other weather report.
Posted February 24th at 11:46 AM
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Allen (Sauquoit):
National weather service only calling for a high of 33 and a low of 26 here on Thursday. Lets hope that happens
Posted February 24th at 11:51 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Posted February 24th at 12:06 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
The sleet potential coupled with a heavy wet snow will keep accumulations down for this event. Despite nearly 1.00” of QPF, the ratios will likely only be 8:1. It may be a bit higher south and west, where it will be a tad colder.
Posted February 24th at 12:07 PM
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norway ny:
snowing pretty good up here! it been cold i dont see how i will get rain maybe frz rain or sleet!
Posted February 24th at 12:11 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
The evening commute will be quite treacherous tomorrow. Several inches of snow will fall by then coupled with the winds picking up. Plan on some schools letting out early tomorrow.
Posted February 24th at 12:13 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Norway,
This is not going to be a typical winter storm. The traditional rules of play such as the east wind effect and cold air damming are not applicable to this scenario. Also, elevation will have no bearing as to whether areas will see sleet because the effects happen way above even the highest hilltops of CNY.
Posted February 24th at 12:24 PM
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Anthony (N.Marcy):
Bill,
what about evaporational cooling of the heavy precip column. Won’t that come into play with such a complex storm?
Posted February 24th at 12:41 PM
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fairfield:
Bill, the storm for tomorrow, is that the one in Virginia now?
Posted February 24th at 12:44 PM
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clayville:
what time is this storm suppost to start?
Posted February 24th at 12:50 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Anthony,
Yes, but at the same time there are other forces at work to overcome, such as solar isolation. We’ve seen it’s work during the day…it’s hard to get snow to stick with temepratures above freezing during late Feb and beyond unless it’s snowing really hard.
Posted February 24th at 12:52 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
I also think it will be very difficult to get more accumulations on Friday afternoon. Temperatures will climb well above freezing, and rain may be a better bet by that point. One thing at a time though.
Posted February 24th at 12:55 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Even with this past storm we had problems accumalating snow. I never hit 32 degrees despite the heavy snow falling. And that occured at night! If our high is 36 tomorrow…it’s going to be tough.
Posted February 24th at 12:56 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Rob,
Totally agree. We need the snow to fall heavily in order for this all to work out. Otherwise it will be a sloppy wet snow/rain during the day.
Posted February 24th at 12:57 PM
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dcg Rome:
Posted February 24th at 1:00 PM
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dcg Rome:
Bill,
Are you still thinking the same on the snow totals that are on the map or is temp. going to call a shot??Posted February 24th at 1:01 PM
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cj:
Does anyone know at about what time the snow will start tomorrow in the Mohawk Valley?
Posted February 24th at 1:04 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I’m guessing around noon the moderate snow begins. I have no idea why BGM starts the Watch tonight.
Posted February 24th at 1:09 PM
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Jim (whitesboro):
my brother in law in Wynantskill said he had 15 inches over night in his driveway, not sure where they are at now though.
Posted February 24th at 1:17 PM
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Carol:
I thought the North East was supposed to get the most snow, now the map shows more snow in Western NY? Probably going to be yet another flop.
Posted February 24th at 1:19 PM
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Max:
In Schenectady we had 10-12” in the driveway. Altamont noon total was just over 27”.
Having lived in New Hartford my whole life, I still check WKTV for my weather info out in Albany. You guys are always spot on, even though we’re not your focus. There is no other place to go to get this type of discussions too. Great job guys.
Posted February 24th at 1:26 PM
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Eliza (Newark Valley):
NWS insists we’re only getting 6” or so here, but local WBNG says 9-12” in Tioga and Broome counties, et al. No rain expected. Look right to you, Bill?
Posted February 24th at 1:42 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Rob – whats your snowpack at now? I was looking in CoCoRahs and someone in whitesboro is reporting 17”, almost as much as MG and Boonville.
Posted February 24th at 2:04 PM
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Mrboom:
Hey bill and crew, im out in canastota near cuse.. suppose to start my new job tomorow, when is this storm gonna start,peak, and ending of this baby.
Posted February 24th at 2:12 PM
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Brian (Lairdsville):
Mel-My snowpack is about 8 inches at 800 ft. 17 in the valley anywhere seems too high even after the last two nights.
Posted February 24th at 2:13 PM
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Shaun (Mohawk Valley):
Snow totals for the Mohawk Valley seem to be getting smaller and smaller…... Is this true?
Posted February 24th at 2:32 PM
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Shaun (Mohawk Valley):
For the upcoming storm…...
Posted February 24th at 2:33 PM
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Debbie:
Suppose to go to oswego from utica on friday. how do you think weather will be for thedrive. Also my daughter is suppose to drive to Blue Mountain Lake on Friday — does it look bad going up that way. Thanks for any info you can give in advance.
Posted February 24th at 2:37 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I have 7.0” for a snowpack at my house. Yeah that spotter always seems to get alot more than me. He’s 3.5 NE of the village. He must have some elevation. I’m 1.5 NW of the village @ 650 feet.
Posted February 24th at 2:37 PM
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Debbie:
Suppose to go to oswego from utica on friday. how do you think weather will be for thedrive. Also my daughter is suppose to drive to Blue Mountain Lake on Friday — does it look bad going up that way. Thanks for any info you can give in advance.
Posted February 24th at 2:37 PM
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Allen (Sauquoit):
The NWS Has issued a Winter Storm Warning:
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
236 PM EST WED FEB 24 2010...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STEADY SNOW
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORM TOTALS OF NEAR A
FOOT ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.NYZ009-036-037-250345-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0004.100225T0600Z-100227T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0004.100225T0900Z-100226T1200Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BOONVILLE...ONEIDA...UTICA...ROME
236 PM EST WED FEB 24 2010...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7
AM EST FRIDAY.STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH
OR MORE PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.BY THE TIME SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...STORM
TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE HILLTOPS.IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS FOR THIS STORM WILL BE BOTH THE HEAVY WET
NATURE OF THE SNOW...AND INCREASING WINDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES...AND SOME TREE DAMAGE...CAN BE EXPECTED.Posted February 24th at 2:47 PM
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Justin (Whitesboro):
NWS again says no mixing is going to occur, very odd….
Posted February 24th at 3:07 PM
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MG(Point Rock):
Justin:
the NWS winter storm statement from Buffalo for Lewis, Oswego and Jefferson counties mentions the possibility of rain mixing in tomorrow afternoon. But they are still calling for 8-12 inches in those countiesPosted February 24th at 3:17 PM
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Nate(little falls):
WE got 4.2 inches of heavy wet snow from this past storm. also had a couple of branches down in my yard from it
Posted February 24th at 3:19 PM
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MG(Point Rock):
Correction: BUF said the rain may mix in over lower elevation of those counties, and at those lower elevations, they are expecting 4-7 inches, with 8-12 at the higher elevations
Posted February 24th at 3:20 PM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
All the forecasts I have seen, and have read still showing 8-16 average, with very little mention of mixture and very heavy winds. Still waiting to see what the Crew predicts!
Posted February 24th at 3:24 PM
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Jimmy (New Hartford):
Picked up 3.2 inches total last night. Elevation 690
Posted February 24th at 3:25 PM
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Eliza (Newark Valley):
Bing NWS mentions some rain may mix in, but still predicts up to 12” with 16” at higher elevations and high winds beginning Thursday afternoon for Tioga-Broome area.
For Debbie asking about travel on Friday, News10Now weather guy says this weather will continue right through Friday and so will very poor road conditions.
Posted February 24th at 3:34 PM
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cedarville:
when will the storm start
Posted February 24th at 3:40 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Sounds like steep lapse rates will keep the precip all snow outside of a possible rain snow mix at the start. I still bet sleet will mix in along and north of the thruway. This storm is really wrapping in some moist Atlantic air. Lots of times when this happen we get that sandy snow as well…which is basically a 5 to 1 ratio. We’ll see.
Posted February 24th at 3:48 PM
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SteveH(Tully):
What are the winds supposed to be like Sat morning? I’m assuming most of the major snow will be over by then, right?
Posted February 24th at 3:53 PM
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Justin (Whitesboro):
18z NAM I think is a bit further more east, the core of the heavier precip still appears to be in our area, tomorrow evening is going to be treacherous…
Posted February 24th at 4:01 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Steve H,
Major snows will be over by Saturday. The storm will start tomorrow afternoon (noon to 3pm from south to north). With the quickening pace of the storm it will likely start out as a mixture of rain and snow in the lower elevations. There is still the possibility of sleet mixing in, especially north and east. The snow ratios will also be rather low. In other words, there’s a lot more that can go wrong with this storm than in previous storms. We’re being extra careful with the forecast.
Posted February 24th at 4:03 PM
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Matt S. (Deerfield):
I’m glad this past storm was a flop and we didn’t get much snow at all. Hopefully the next storm will be a flop too.
Posted February 24th at 4:04 PM
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fairfield:
radar for the northeast from virginia – up through great lakes…..getting messy
Posted February 24th at 4:36 PM
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Allen (Sauquoit):
Matt S.
Not sure why you live here if your constantly complaining about the winter. There are some of us that love it and you’re good at ruining it. I hope this next storm isn’t a flop, I hope we get what they predict. I’m really looking forward to it.
Posted February 24th at 4:47 PM
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Kevin (Whitesboro):
I’m looking forward to it too. We haven’t had one good storm yet this year.
Posted February 24th at 4:49 PM
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fairfield:
i’m with you guys, been way too boring this winter. just one good storm p l e a s e! but not enough to close school hehe, maybe hr early dismissal…..and maybe knock the power out for a while. not trying to be mean just a little excitement is all i’m asking for
Posted February 24th at 4:56 PM
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Chris ( HP weasther observer ):
Picked up 4 inches from last nights round.. first storm total of 8 inches of heavy wet snow. seasonal totals up to 64.5 inches. waiting on storm # 2
Posted February 24th at 4:56 PM
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Matt S. (Deerfield):
@Allen: I don’t have a choice as to where I live at the moment. It gets pretty sickening having to drive in to work at night through the snow and slush after a few months of it. If you like snow so much, why don’t you move somewhere where there is more snow than here. Believe me, if I could afford it, I’d be out of this state in a heartbeat. Not trying to be an a$$ here, I just prefer the warmer weather.
Posted February 24th at 5:00 PM
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Allen (Sauquoit):
Already down to 33 here. Kind of a freezing drizzle coming down now.
Posted February 24th at 5:07 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
I picked up a 4.2 inches from 2/23/10 4:00 pm – 2/24/10 8:00 am (storm #2). been moving snow getting ready for storm #3.
Posted February 24th at 5:08 PM
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Anthony (Oriskany):
Matt S: I feel your pain. Winters would be more tolerable if we actually got a spring and (dare I say) summer…..
Posted February 24th at 5:15 PM
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Clifford (Garrattsville, Otsego):
Well all I know is that yesterday forecast for the storm last night and this morning was a BIG flop. I am lucky if I got 3” of snow out of it and I sit at 1800 ft elevation.
Posted February 24th at 5:29 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Good evening gang!
The latest data coming into the weather center still points to a heavy wet snowfall across CNY over the next 24 to 36 hours.
At this time it appears that light snow showers overnight and early on Thursday morning will evolve into a steadier and heavier snowfall during Thursday afternoon and evening. The storm system will intensify off the coast of Long Island by later Thursday evening. From there our computer models have been pretty consistent in shoving the storm back to the west, as it gets deflected by a ridge of high pressure in Eastern Canada.
As this storm moves to our south, the counterclockwise circulation around the low pressure center will draw in warmer air from the Atlantic Ocean. This spells a very wet and heavy snowfall across CNY, similar to what we experience on Tuesday Night.
Thoughts and concerns – Our model progs are in fairly good agreement in bringing heavy precipitation to the local area. Amounts of 1" are good average of what is expected for much of the Mohawk Valley and surrounding communities, with greater amounts to the south of town. Typically we would expect snowfall to water ratios with a storm like this to be 10:1 – but under these circumstances we expect the ratio to be more like 7:1 or even 6:1 – as temperatures will only be very marginal during this event. As Bill pointed out above, temperatures 5 degrees cooler would have doubled our snowfall amounts last night – and there is little reason to suspect that the snowfall won’t be just as wet and packy with this next event. Indeed, the mild Atlantic flow of air only increases our confidence for a snowfall of this type. There is even the chance for some rain to mix in at times in the Mohawk Valley.
On the other hand, copious amounts of moisture are going to be thrown into CNY, especially south of town. The higher terrain will squeeze out more moisture and temperatures a few degrees cooler will allow the snow to accmulate more readily. Slightly less QPF is expected across the North Country, further away from the center of the storm.
With that in mind…
Here is our snowfall forecast for the next event
Posted February 24th at 5:41 PM
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Heather (Mohawk/German flats 5s thruway):
I am right on the border by that map ugh.. I will post alot if its wanted beings that I am right there and keep on road conditions and thruway if its wanted …
Posted February 24th at 6:23 PM
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To Heather:
That sounds good to keep us updated.
Posted February 24th at 6:46 PM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Looks like we are entering the Nowcasting time, I will try to give some updates tomorrow but will be away from the computer from about noon till 3pmish.
Posted February 24th at 6:58 PM
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sauquoit:
is sauquoit/clayville area close enough to get the 8 to 14 inches?
Posted February 24th at 7:09 PM
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Adam Musyt:
#88,
Yep.
Pretty much anywhere from where you are and points southward, where the elevation spikes above 1200 ft is fair game.
Posted February 24th at 7:20 PM
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Updates:
Yes that sounds great, while were checking in for storm updates, track changes, please inundate us with reports of every snowplow travelling past your house on Rt. 5S and the Thruway. Don’t forget, let us know how bad the roads are where your “hubby” works. Ft. Plain right?
Posted February 24th at 7:30 PM
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Jim (Whitesboro):
At what time should we expect roads to start getting sloppy? I have to travel to Auburn first thing and would come back about dinner time. I don’t have to go, but I was thinking about at least doing a half day. I would love some time line info, thanks, you guys do the best job and I try to get everyone at work to use you guys for info, even though you don’t necessarily cover out that way as much.
Posted February 24th at 7:41 PM
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Jim (Whitesboro):
By the way, the thruway was a little slick with temps at 32/33 according to the dashboard on the car and a misty/snow time precip, the wheels even slipped a little I think I may have hit some ice, but only for a short clip near westmo.
on a funny note, I was reading an article on weather.com and they ripped accuweather (without saying the name) for referring to this storm as a hurricane like storm or snowicane. I love it.
Posted February 24th at 7:48 PM
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Adam Musyt:
91,
Morning commute should just feature some light snow. We expect the precipitation to get heavier as the day wears on. Roadways will likely be slick by afternoon with the worst of the weather late Thursday and Thursday Night.
Posted February 24th at 7:53 PM
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To: Updates:
Keep your snide remarks to yourself. Many of us are happy to find out how the roads are out that way. Back off and quit picking on her.
Posted February 24th at 7:56 PM
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Jim (Whitesboro):
half day it is, thanks Adam.
Posted February 24th at 7:59 PM
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NH Resident:
Wishing for a BIG storm!! Love being snowbound. This is what winter in CNY is all about!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted February 24th at 8:02 PM
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nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):
Temp has dipped below 34 here for the first time since Sunday night. Got up to 38 today and lost quite a bit of snowpack – down to about 3 – 4 inches on the ground.
Off and on light snow showers/mist have been around the past hour or so with a fresh dusting on the ground/cars.Posted February 24th at 8:14 PM
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Mrboom:
Hey gang. 1 st dont pick on heather that was kind of her … yo go girl.. as for weather.. 30 degrees in canastota, light very fine snow. So adam the 5pm commute should bascially be REAL bad … i agree with jum :)
Posted February 24th at 8:57 PM
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Carl (Sauquoit):
Hey Gang! Adam or crew what is Friday mornings commute going to look like? Thanks!
Posted February 24th at 9:06 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Friday’s commute will likely be sloppy. The worst road conditions will be Thursday Night and very early Friday.
Posted February 24th at 9:52 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
SREFS are a few degrees colder than the 12Z. They keep us at or below freezing during the heavy precip. This morning run had us in the mid 30’s.
Posted February 24th at 10:07 PM
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Adam Musyt:
The mix of sleet is still in the cards for tomorrow night.
Here’s a look at the NAM forecast sounding for Watertown for 1 AM Friday morning.
And Here’s a look at the NAM forecast sounding for Rome for 1 AM Friday morning.
The 830 mb temperatures at Watertown climb to about 3 degrees while Rome hovers around minus 1 or minus 2. This suggests that there is still a chance for some sleet for a time between these two points, at least for a brief time.
Posted February 24th at 10:13 PM
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dcg Rome:
Don’t really understand the NAM forecast etc…
But, I have to say, it’s just not winter w/out a good storm and a snowday!! :-)Posted February 24th at 10:25 PM
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jay (west frankfort):
hey guys,is this next storm considered a nor easter or just a coastal sorm?
Posted February 24th at 10:26 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
The NAM bombs the storm to 972 mb now! I think the mid-atlantic blizzard was 969mb. That would definitely bring a shot of sleet.
Posted February 24th at 10:30 PM
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Heather (Mohawk):
No you dont need to stick up for me thanks anyway if 5s and thruway conditions are not wanted thats fine really . Just offered incase anyone needed to travel this way for work through the day brings I have clear view of both.
Posted February 24th at 10:41 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Folks,
Any and all weather information, weather questions and road condition updates are appreciated. The free flow of useful information is all to the good for everyone who stops by the blog.
Posted February 24th at 10:53 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Actually the pressure bombs to 970 on the NAM over CT. The Mid-Atlantic blizzard peaked when it was way off shore. I bet blizzard warnings go up for PA and possibly even the S tier of NY.
Posted February 24th at 10:58 PM
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Anthony (N.Marcy):
Rob,
I disgaree.. evaporational cooling should keep from sleet mixing in..also cold air is pushing in from the midwest. This is one of the ingredients that will allow this to be a snowstorm and not a mix storm.
Posted February 24th at 10:58 PM
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Jim (Whitesboro):
can someone explain evaporational cooling? I hear it a lot, but don’t really know exactly what it is, although I can probably guess. Plain English if possible, thanks.
Posted February 24th at 11:05 PM
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Anthony (N.Marcy):
Justin,
As precipitation falls from the sky (particularly during very heavy precipitation) some of that evaporates into the atmosphere.
As it does so….. it cools the area in which it evaporates into.
Posted February 24th at 11:14 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I don’t know. If we were under the upper low…I would say yes to that. Sleet always finds its way in here. If that was the case about evapoational cooling…we would never get sleet in any big storm.
Posted February 24th at 11:14 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Evaporational cooling is where the atmosphere cools when precipitation falling through dry air evaporates before reaching the ground. This typically occurs when a storm system approaches a dry environment. I’m not really sold that evaporational cooling is going to do much in this case as our atmosphere is pretty saturated from recent storms.
Another way to cool the atmosphere is through a process called "dynamic cooling". This occurs when a storm system rapidly intensifies. As the central pressure drops, cooler air is "produced" because the air in this lower pressure expands. Expansion is a cooling process.
We’re keeping at least the chance of sleet in the forecast because of the mild counterclockwise flow of air from over the Atlantic into CNY – with the storm centered to the south.
Posted February 24th at 11:16 PM
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Allen (Sauquoit):
Just wanted to let everyone know that if you would like to check out how the weather pans out here in Sauquoit you can check out my webcam looking outside that streams 24/7. www.sauquoitweather.info
Posted February 24th at 11:49 PM
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Clifford (Garrattsville, Otsego):
Well, WKTV is the only one I am hearing from about this sleet mix. TWC, Accu and Underground make no mention of it for my area. We will have to wait and see. Anyhow just a light dusting here with light snow falling.
Posted February 25th at 3:49 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
No changes to the overall thoughts of the forecast this (early) morning. Snows will continue to develop through the morning, with the heaviest snows this afternoon and early evening. It is still possible that there may be some mixing with this precipitation (rain and/or sleet). No changes to the snowfall forecast issed last night either.
Posted February 25th at 4:20 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Clifford,
You stand the least chance to turn over to other precipitation forms in our viewing area.
Posted February 25th at 4:21 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
So long as the precipitation falls steady today, there’s a pretty good chance it will stay all snow. Even in the all snow scenario, ratios are going to be very low, so 1.0” of liquid may only translate to 6”-8” of snow. Keeping a larger range (5”-10”) in this kind of event is wise because elevation and mesoscale effects will affect totals.
Posted February 25th at 4:28 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Snows are a bit ahead of schedule here this morning…still expecting the heavy stuff this afternoon.
Posted February 25th at 6:06 AM
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sauquoit:
how come closings and delays are not posted online for today yet?
Posted February 25th at 6:17 AM
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randy Vitullo :
The 6z GFS actually gives us more precipitation than the NAM. it appears to be up to around 1.3 to 1.5 qpf for the event. Or, maybe I am just color blind. Do you guys give the 6z much credence?
Posted February 25th at 6:21 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
The newsroom informs me they will be online very shortly sauquoit.
Posted February 25th at 6:22 AM
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sauquoit:
ok thanks bill
Posted February 25th at 6:25 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Randy,
The 6z NAM is slightly wetter than the 0z BUT the 6z GFS is drier than the 00z…so there’s no clear trend.
Posted February 25th at 6:27 AM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
Phoenix is reporting 4” of snow from overnight, and 1.5” in the last hour.
Posted February 25th at 6:38 AM
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Jim (Whitesboro):
is the snow out west of here “the storm” or just a disturbance? It just seems early for “the storm”
Posted February 25th at 6:43 AM
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Nick (West Winfield NY):
snowing moderately here. picking up in intensity.
Posted February 25th at 6:46 AM
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fairfield:
ok, where is Phoenix
Posted February 25th at 6:47 AM
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fairfield:
ok team, we better be getting a foot of snow….everything’s closed…. :() lol
Posted February 25th at 6:54 AM
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Nick (West Winfield NY):
Now snow pretty heavy.
Posted February 25th at 6:54 AM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
Phoenix is NNW of Syracuse, about 20 miles (that’s just a rough estimate)
Posted February 25th at 6:55 AM
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Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):
I have to recorrect my post from #78.. I had 4 inches from storm #1 and 4 inches from storm #2. I already have close to an inch already this morning and snowing here lightly for the most part with storm #3.. Snow is more fluffier than the wet snow we have had, Still wet in nature. Waiting on the blast later this morning and afternoon. Are we still anticipating rates of an inch to 2 inches per hour, I had read something about that?
Posted February 25th at 6:58 AM
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Comespring:
It seems like everyone from the weather service to the Syracuse Stations are going way more snow amounts and little mention of sleet for our area. I hope you guys are right on the low snowfall amounts for our area.
Posted February 25th at 7:04 AM
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cusefan (Deerfield):
Has been snowing here some already for the past 60-90 min, and starting to stick to stuff. Looks pretty sitting on the trees looks like a Christmas card looking out my back yard. This just looks like the start of things so everyone be smart/safe on the roads today who have to be out.
Posted February 25th at 7:11 AM
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Clifford (Garrattsville, Otsego):
Snowing steady here at 1800 ft but it’s a very VERY fine grain of snow.
Posted February 25th at 7:14 AM
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AJ - Norwich:
Already 1 to 2 inches across Chenango County this morning. (2” in the higher elevations, 1” in the valleys).
Posted February 25th at 7:22 AM
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Breitling:
The Cosmonaute appearance a Breitling Navitimer
, clearly watch-certified by the COSC ( like all Bentley Motors ). The crystals in Bentley Motors T and chronographs are fabricated of blemish aggressive cobalt. Navitimer Watches has nominated to aftereffect a bound alternation of the calibration model.Posted June 21st at 9:06 PM
Add a Comment
Recent Comments on this Entry
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Breitling
June 21st, 9:06 PM
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AJ - Norwich
February 25th, 7:22 AM
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Clifford (Garrattsville, Otsego)
February 25th, 7:14 AM
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cusefan (Deerfield)
February 25th, 7:11 AM
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Comespring
February 25th, 7:04 AM
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Chris ( HP Weather Observer )
February 25th, 6:58 AM
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Mike S (Port Leyden)
February 25th, 6:55 AM
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Nick (West Winfield NY)
February 25th, 6:54 AM
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fairfield
February 25th, 6:54 AM
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fairfield
February 25th, 6:47 AM
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