Time for a Breather...then More "Fun" This Weekend?

Posted February 13th, 2008 by Matt Lanza. 156 comments

Well, the forecast worked out in the end...not exactly like I envisioned it, but it worked nonetheless. I think the number of accidents and general trouble today corresponded with our forecast anyway, so, another event wrapping up. Anyone curious as to how the forecast verified compared to actual totals can click here to check out some of the plotted totals. Might be tough to read some of the numbers, but they're there. It's technically incomplete, but close enough.

That said, a brief entry tonight, looking forward.

Friday's system is weak...very little moisture to work with, and temperatures look awfully borderline at the moment, so some raindrops may hamper any shot at accumulation. That said, up to an inch or two is possible, looking out this far.

It will turn much colder on Friday night. 850 mb temps drop below -20 again, which means we head for the single digits. Lake snows will develop by Saturday morning on northwest flow. This favors a multi-band scenario, mostly south and west of Utica. Despite the cold air, winds look rather light, shear looks relatively impressive, dry air builds in quickly on Saturday and lake instability, while present, is limited. Bottom line? Don't expect much outside of the cold on Saturday.

After a very cold Saturday night, the next storm runs up to our west. The GFS, GFS ensembles, and Euro all agree that this storm will track over or to our west...in some cases significantly west. This means a brief period of snow, followed by a mix and then plain rain. The big question now, is how much of a mix? At this point, with 850 mb temperatures surging over us (+4 or warmer by Monday) and the Saturday Arctic cold air slow to scour out, a period of freezing rain is very possible, and this could be problematic if it does happen. The good news in all this, a powerful low level jet stream from the south is going to try and rocket in warm air...so we could see a substantial and fast warm up. At least that's my hope right now. Because if it's not going to snow...freezing rain is no good...might as well warm it up. Temperatures have a shot at cracking 40 on Monday, but I'm holding back for now.

Beyond this timeframe, it seems as though all the blocking indices (NAO, PNA) trend toward neutral as we kick March off. Still going to wait and see, but my expectations of a snowier than normal March still stand. Time will tell.

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Comments

  1. Rich (Westford):

    Matt, Let me be the first to give you your props on hitting the numbers. Like you said not exactly as planned but we still got there. Now for Sunday not much of a chance of this storm tracking east at all. I just read last years blog before the V days storm and it would be nice to see something like that again.

    Posted February 13th at 9:49 PM

  2. Cindy (Ilion):

    Matt PROPS to you for your forecasting. Not what all of us snowlovers wanted to hear, but as the old saying goes "Don;t kill the messenger" right? I have a feeling that there is still a big snowstorm just waiting for us.

    Posted February 13th at 9:57 PM

  3. Matt Lanza:

    (Comment from Rich in Westford removed) Keep it clean, folks.

    Posted February 13th at 10:12 PM

  4. Dover:

    Matt,

    Are you serious, you changed your predictions as the storm died off. You did a heck of a job. I could look outside and do your job. Hope they don't pay you more than six bucks an hour.

    Posted February 13th at 10:25 PM

  5. Mike:

    Ben Dover, Are you serious? These guys do a great job forecasting. He adjusted the forecast as new data came in. In some cases, it was six hours in advance. That's pretty good in my book

    Posted February 13th at 10:32 PM

  6. Matt (utica):

    Dover you are just jealous because he makes more than you. Go troll around a board who cares. Matt: keep up the good work.

    Posted February 13th at 10:35 PM

  7. Matt Lanza:

    Dover: I never changed my forecast. It had to be updated anyway at 11 PM last night (since the main forecast was at 5 PM). Even still that forecast verified based on what reports I've seen. The most important forecast is the one people see before the storm starts. And if you feel so up to the test of "looking outside to do my job," I encourage you to try it. You will be less accurate than us every time. I guarantee it.

    Posted February 13th at 10:36 PM

  8. Jodi ~ (Ilion):

    Dover: They did a great job! Besides even if they had called for 13 feet of snow... its a forecast. Its to give ungrateful people like you a heads up as to what the weather looks to do in the future. I always hear them say 'nothing is set in stone'. They are not Gods or psyhics for crying out loud. If you can do a better job looking out your window then why don't you try that with the next storm and let us know how it works out for you?

    Posted February 13th at 10:43 PM

  9. Cindy:

    DOVER Matt never changed his forecast, he did as he says, he updated it. I suppose you could've called for the sleet and freezing rain? NOAA had us under a winterstorm warning and Matt assured me that I wouldn;t see that, and guess what? He was right. Matt you do a great job with this blog and the weather. There is always a bad apple in the bunch and tonight Dover just happens to be it. Keep up the GREAT work you do Matt!!!

    Posted February 13th at 10:45 PM

  10. Brian:

    Matt, you do a great job. Dover what are you thinking?

    Posted February 13th at 10:46 PM

  11. Dom-Tech (Oriskany):

    Matt,
    Im a snowplow contractor, and Your team has been right, I know when to get the trucks ready because of WKTV weather reports.

    Posted February 13th at 10:47 PM

  12. Matt Lanza:

    Thanks all...not looking to get props here, but I wanted to lay out our verification (and I will try and do that more often) because it gives me a chance to see how we're doing, and it gives you a chance to see what happened and, if bad, what went wrong. It's easy to rip on someone for ripping on us. But the difference is, this is our job...we got our degrees in this so we are supposed to get it right. And fortunately this winter, we've had some success doing that...probably more than usual...certainly more than I expected. We've all learned a lot together, so we've collectively improved our forecasting. One thing we don't lack is the fact that we try. We're not just tossing out numbers...we are really trying to get this right.

    Posted February 13th at 11:01 PM

  13. Dom-Tech:

    should be "right On"

    Posted February 13th at 11:02 PM

  14. Matt(CB):

    7 degrees this morning with just a dusting overnight.7 inch snow total for this last event.Nice glazing of ice on everything .
    Someone asked about the hours of daylight.That can be found on cnyweather.com. That is a very informative site.Just go to sun/moon and it will give moon phases and daylight hrs.

    Posted February 14th at 5:24 AM

  15. cny weatherobserver:

    I have to agree with Dover on this one. I got screwed out of a couple of hours worth of sleep because according to the "accurate" forecast were supposed to get a few inches of snow and then "significant" amounts of sleet. Well, we got the snow but not the sleet. I have to work early in the morning, so if it is going to be bad, i would have to get up early to snowblow. I got up early for nothing. I feel that this last forecast was overdone in an attempt to appeal some overzealous winter enthusiasts.....

    Posted February 14th at 5:40 AM

  16. randy Vitullo:

    Dover, why don't you send yourself to meteorology school and find out how difficult it is to first learn how to determine what the weather might do and then go find a job as a meteorologist so people can bash you for doing a job that is often thankless. The guys at WKTV do a fabulous job with all of their forecasts. Matt's prediction of 4 to 8 for the storm verified in most locations. Just because you didn't get the maximum amount doesn't mean he was wrong. Also, just because all of he snow didn't fall before the changeover doesn't mean they are wrong either. It is a storm total. The storm lasted from Tuesday evening through yesterday afternoon.

    Posted February 14th at 6:05 AM

  17. randy Vitullo:

    To the CNY OBSERVER: We received sleet where I live. It started sleeting as the dry slot closed off and precipitation moved in. We received the snow from 530 pm to about midnight, then the dryslot, then the sleet, then the freezing rain. Lastly, it all changed back to snow. Like Matt said,............

    Posted February 14th at 6:08 AM

  18. LM (Whitesboro):

    Wktv crew: You guys do a great job. As a matter of fact, I must admit, prior to this blog I was always ragging on you guys regarding the forecast. This blog had been a real eye opener to someone like me who ever since the 1992, July storm, I have been fasinated by weather but unfortunately with 4 kids and a house my time is limited. There is so much to learn and quite frankly I don't have the time to. I now find myself defending WKTV to people who are unaware of this blog. Everything is laid out in detail and I am amazed at the level of accuracy. You "weekend meteorologists" and students to a great job too during WKTV's dry slots too. Keep up the great work. Oh and Matt, I really do hope you are wrong regarding a snowier than normal March...but I won't hold it against you!

    Posted February 14th at 6:53 AM

  19. Tony (CNYWeather.com - Westmoreland):

    Matt, nice to see your weather data on weatherunderground.com now. You know your elevation shows as 1 ft?

    Posted February 14th at 7:57 AM

  20. Holly - Cedarville Lake:

    Matt - keep up the great work along with everyone else at WKTV. The weather, as a hobby for me is fun, exciting and I think, because it is so unpredictable. You never know what's going to happen in upstate New York and that's the allure. Pay no attention to that man (Dover) behind the curtain! I truly enjoy this blog, knowing I'm not the only person who enjoys terrible weather. Bravo!

    Posted February 14th at 8:36 AM

  21. Jonathan (Oriskany):

    I just find it funny how everyone that has a bone to pick hides behind aliases. That's like a backstabber. If you have something negative to say...be a man (or woman), don't hide behind a name a six year old wouldn't even find funny.

    Commonsense would dictate to me that we don't take these forecasts as gospel...they are forecasts, predictions of what is to come. If the team is calling for inclement weather 3 days out, I'm going to keep an eye on things. They have the right, and are only doing their job, to mold their forecasts as the event gets closer, as new data becomes available...even if it means right up to the start of the event. I just laugh at those who think they can do a better job. Matt, Bill, Adam and Jill have done a terrific job, and am sure will continue to do so. It would be easy for them to just say "some clouds with a chance of precipitation" every day. They'd be right everytime.

    While the weather has not been ideal, it is what we should expect for our area, so no complaints from me. It's gonna do what it wants to do. :) Just makes me look forward to enjoying spring when it gets here. Pitchers and catchers started reporting yesterday...which means we are getting closer! :)

    Posted February 14th at 9:12 AM

  22. Andy Forestport:

    I hope this storm slides east, we are off to good snowmobiling and skiing again, tht could easily be wiped out agian by a rain storm.

    Posted February 14th at 10:12 AM

  23. Walt-Norwich:

    We have some light snow in Norwich-the hills look like a postcard...

    For all of you who keep complaining about the forecast...please read this definition...(forecast-
    1: to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data ; especially : to predict (weather conditions) on the basis of correlated meteorological observations b : to indicate as likely to occur

    2: to serve as a forecast of : PRESAGE
    intransitive senses : to calculate the future

    Historically it has been said since I was a child a long time ago...we live in the northeast...if you don't like the weather...wait five minutes and it'll change...so keep this in mind before you complain about any of the meteorologists at WKTV...they have the tools...the education and the experience to give us the best forcast of weather...not something set in stone...keep up the great work Matt...Bill...Adam and Jill...in my 50 years the weather team there is as good as any ever...

    Posted February 14th at 10:18 AM

  24. Matt Lanza:

    Thanks, all!

    cny wx observer: Believe me...none of us would ever issue a wish-cast. I've gotten pumped for storms several days out before and have wanted to forecast some type of unique weather. But why in the world would any of us ever do that? Who wins in that situation? No one. I would never forecast sleet to appease winter lovers, because sleet does them no good anyway! And I do recall stressing that the total accumulation map included both snow and sleet. If you told me where you were from and how much you received, it would be a help for the next time. Believe it or not...it may not seem like much, but knowing how much snow certain areas got can improve our pattern recognition, so the next time a storm comes around, we can say, "Well in that one storm, didn't this area get xx inches?" It helps.

    Posted February 14th at 10:25 AM

  25. Matt Lanza:

    By the way, for anyone hoping for spring? Pitchers and catchers report today. :)

    Posted February 14th at 10:40 AM

  26. roady:

    What kind of snow removal contractor relies on a weather report?
    We've been in the business for 47 years and the only reliable forecast is to be ready and get up and check every morning.

    This me first generation is killing me. LOL

    Posted February 14th at 11:44 AM

  27. Matt(CB):

    I love how informational this blog is.Lately it has gotten comical.It just amazes me on how people can blow forcast so out of proportion.The WKTV weather team is a top notch group.So far this year I put Matt L at about 90 percent corect.Now there are a few future weatherman out there but they don't have the tools needed to get it right.

    As an old timer and always living here,I can remember when there weren't any extended forcast.The good ole days.I also remember being a volunteer fireman fighting grass fire this time of yr in the early eighties.Man could Al Gore run with that as Global Warming.
    Anyways,I am ready for spring and am counting the days.We are up to 10 hrs and 28 min of daylight YOOHOO !!!

    Posted February 14th at 4:11 PM

  28. Jonathan (Oriskany):

    You know, the one thing I have been impressed with is lately, as a system approaches the area, there has been some disagreement with the data that has come in, and the team has made alot of "gut feeling" calls, going against some of the data. Most of these tweaks have panned out. Just goes to show you can have all the data in the world, but being able to adjust and mold it on the fly to the various attributes of this region is what makes a good meteorologist. Matt, can you elaborate how much "gut feeling" goes into each forecast? I'm sure it differs depending on the situation.

    Posted February 14th at 4:31 PM

  29. Jill Reale:

    What a difference a year makes! Last year we were digging out of 2 feet of snow (I was enjoying a day off from college)and this year we are enjoying a nice sunset (and I am working):). It looks as if the cold front tomorrow will be all snow, but don't get excited, accumulations will be from a trace to 2 inches. This storm has the punch but lacks the moisture. All in all, it is going to get bitter cold on Friday night and into Saturday. Enjoy your Valentine's Day!!!

    Posted February 14th at 5:16 PM

  30. Mel (Westernville):

    Just a trace of snow today with some light snow and flurries earlier today - went out and measured and snowpack is at 22".

    Posted February 14th at 5:23 PM

  31. mike m ( binghamton):

    i just want to point out that part of my forecast actually panned out this time,i was talking about round two of yesterdays storm for at least 24hrs before it happened, saying it could drop 2-4 inches from a BGM to just SE of Utica line, and i dont want to brag, but i got 3 inches here yesterday, so id say it worked out pretty nicely. sure most of the time i overdue the frozen precip when i make forecast, and i guess i will have to work on that when i become a real meteorologist.

    Posted February 14th at 5:36 PM

  32. lb (Cedarville):

    Matt (CB): Thanks for the response. cnyweather.com has exactly what I was looking for. It's a nice site.

    Posted February 14th at 7:48 PM

  33. bob:

    Matt, when are we going to see that big dump in the mohawk valley?

    Posted February 14th at 7:54 PM

  34. stevo (rome):

    Matts forecast was 100% here for Rome we got about 4" of snow,about a little less than 1/8" freezing rain,and sleet,and about 3.5" more of a grainy snow and sleet mixture.Keep up the good work WKTV Weather crew. excelent job!!!!!!!

    Posted February 14th at 7:54 PM

  35. stevo (rome):

    oh yeah our Snowpack here in rome as of yesterday is about 13" im sure some melted off today as it went above freezing for a bit. Its amazing though 22" inches 10 miles away in westernville. gotta love lake effet,and elevation! lol

    Posted February 14th at 7:59 PM

  36. Dover:

    I would like to address one of the first replies, that I should put myself through meteorology school then get a job in the field. My response to that is what satisfaction would I receive from being correct 60%, 70% or even 80% of the time? If I was a doctor and only successful 70% of the time then I might amputate the wrong leg. Even Burger King gets the orders correct more than 80% of the time. The bottom line is the forecasts rarely come in accurate. Im not here to bash everyone; I’m here to point out the fact that when youre wrong you need to admit you’re wrong. How about keeping a ticker on the website to how many times youre correct versus incorrect.

    So Matt what’s the big prediction for the weekend or are we too far out to determine that?

    Posted February 14th at 8:05 PM

  37. Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

    You know, honestly, I am getting real sick and tired of all the negative crap being posted by some of you people, like Ben (Dover) here. I think most of you are just jealous miscreants of another area weather blog, (you know, the extremely lame one west of us with the number 9 in it. The one that gets maybe 30 posts during the entire duration of a major storm). I think the rest are just very narrow minded, would rather blame the weatherman than God because they can't take their snowmobile out. I think Matt and this blog are outstanding. This winter has been the most unpredictable that I can remember in years. Approaching events are constantly being skewed. Within 12 hours or so of an event though, Matt has been dead on in fine tuning. If you read these blogs you would see that, you can't just tune in to the tv once a day and think that the forecast is in stone from there on out. Here however, it is constantly updated and right on the money. Comparing a weather forecaster to a doctor is a joke. Heck, a baseball player only has to hit the ball the right way 30% of the time and he's a multi-millionaire. Go back to whatever lame blog or site you came from and goad them about being too far out to forecast. We do ot want our weather crew, who we are very fond of, to be gun shy about letting us know ahead of time about POSSIBILITIES.

    Posted February 14th at 10:34 PM

  38. Jodi ~ (Ilion):

    Comparing what meteorologists do to what doctors do is as absurd as telling someone their forecasts are rarely accurate and then asking for a prediction. I give you all kudos for doing what you do. People need to understand that this is a really tough region to forecast. I will never again wonder why the turnover rate of meteorologists around here is so high.

    Posted February 14th at 10:36 PM

  39. randy vitullo:

    Dover, Your field ( where you are right all the time) is what? Are you a god? You wouldn't work in a profession that exposes the fact that you are human? Doctors make wrong choices everyday. You would have to be very stupid to amputate the wrong leg. You can't compare doctors and weather forecasters. It is like comparing apples and oranges. Give it up dover.

    Posted February 14th at 10:37 PM

  40. js:

    Maybe Dover is one of the creeps from last weekend with a different "name" to hide behind!

    Posted February 14th at 10:42 PM

  41. randy vitullo:

    Excellent Jim, excellent. Well said. Baseball, 30%. I wonder if dover is right at his job more than 30% of the time. He has been wrong every time he has posted on this blog. That is a zero percentage value. 0.

    Posted February 14th at 10:50 PM

  42. Jonathan (Oriskany):

    I couldn't agree with Jim and Jodi more. Ben (Dover), having a spirited conversation about "the facts" of a forecast is one thing, but to do it in such a demeaning way is another.

    Posted February 14th at 10:50 PM

  43. mike m ( binghamton):

    i vote for not paying attention to people like Dover, who we all know have no idea what their talking about, and focusing on what this blog is suppose to be all about; weather!!! speaking of weather, matt, is there some decent LES potential tomorrow night especially SW of utica in the hills south of syracuse? buffalos WRF model is showing some pretty strong bands coming across lake ontario, with perhaps an upper lake connection, zeroing in on areas close to BGM. these bands slowly shift NE over night across cortland county and into madison and onondago counties. what kind of accumulations are possible?

    Posted February 15th at 12:26 AM

  44. matt hpn el:

    dover im sure your bashing matt is going to persuade him to respond to you
    matt i wouldnt blame you if you wanted to leave everyone who has a brain knows your salary doesnt cover this kind of harrasement perhaps if dover knows his percentages all the time he'd like to configure the percentage of people who actually give a sh*t what he thinks
    go ahead dover when your not coward enough to reveal your actual name why dont you become a meteorologist so we can all tell you when you dont get the forecast exactly right

    Posted February 15th at 2:16 AM

  45. sno x (westmo):

    OK Dover or who ever else that thinks the wktv weather team isn't up to par why do you keep watching and blogging here? Its very simple go someplace else and get your forecast like the Atlanta based weather channel with their corny computer generated weather on the 8s or how about accuweathers metomadness crack head from state college that predicts a "BIG DADDY" of a storm once a week. I am sure Matt isn't gonna lose any sleep because Dover or some lazy a-- snow removal guy that don't get up at 1 or 2 am to look out the window thinks of him when just about everyone here agrees that wktv weather is awesome. Can we please get back on topic now ?

    Posted February 15th at 5:26 AM

  46. John from Cold Brook:

    My take on the current situation is this....we live in CNY and the weather is unpredictable. I only got about 4 inches of snow in my yard. No sleet or anything else like that. Am I disappointed? Not really. Was the forecast "off?" I think it was....but we are all human and are far from perfect. With that being said, I think that the weather team is being very arrogant when they refuse to admit they might have made a mistake or two with this or past forecasts that didn't pan out. It takes a bigger man to admit they might have made a mistake or two. In addition, this is a blog and people like Dover and Mr.Lanina or whoever it was are free to express themselves. Does it mean we have to listen or pay attention? No. Thank god for freedom of speech....

    Posted February 15th at 5:59 AM

  47. Dover:

    hey shame shame

    Posted February 15th at 7:46 AM

  48. Bill Kardas:

    What frustrates me the most is that people who frequently slam us know little about how weather forecasting works. I'll let people's comments on this blog speak for themselves. The more educated people are about the weather, the more they understand the difficulties and challenges, and the less likely they are to openly attack us about it. That's why this blog is a great idea. We aren't perfect by any means, but we try our best because we love what we are doing. All of these blog entries you read on a daily/weekly basis are done out of our own free time. We will continue to inform and educate our viewers regardless of praise or criticism. We appreciate the feedback.

    Posted February 15th at 8:34 AM

  49. Brad (Oneonta):

    The way I see it is that meteorologists are always wrong. If they say the high is going to be 80 and it gets to 79 then they were wrong. If they say we are going to get 10 inches and we get 9.5" or 10.5, they are wrong. BIG DEAL! Get over it you losers. Honestly folks how can you be upset when the weather is off by a little. Weather is unpredictable and the forecasts can only be used as a guideline. Its not like we are going to Vegas with the odds. I always find it funny that some people always have to find the bad in everything. You pessimistic people crack me up.

    Posted February 15th at 8:34 AM

  50. Bob Jones:

    Dover,
    How about keeping a ticker on the website to how many times you're correct versus incorrect?

    Posted February 15th at 8:39 AM

  51. Vin:

    Freedom of speech doesn't come with the freedom to be heard or taken seriously

    Posted February 15th at 8:43 AM

  52. Jonathan (Oriskany):

    It all boils down to how one presents themselves on the blog. I'm all for free speech and an open debate about the forecasts, but to hide behind an alias and then attack someones livelihood just doesn't take much brains. With every forecast, the weather team has laid out an explanation on why they are forecasting the way they are. And when there has been a bust, they explain what happened. To me, that is what the blog is all about. The majority know that not only is this a learning tool for the casual weather fan, but for the weather team as well.

    Posted February 15th at 8:56 AM

  53. Tony (CNYWeather.com - Westmoreland):

    We should get back to the informative weather discussions I think. Maybe WKTV could start up a "discuss whatever your gripe is" blog for all the nay-sayers :-D

    Posted February 15th at 8:56 AM

  54. Michele (Cooperstown,NY):

    I agree, I come on to see the discussions regarding weather, not political debates and who is right and who is wrong. Come on folks, this is called a weather blog for a reason and we would not be human if we were perfect. So lets get on with what this blog is meant for. And WKTV, I think you are doing a great job and keep up the great work. How is this weekends storm panning out?

    Posted February 15th at 9:06 AM

  55. Karen ~~ Westmoreland:

    I do not write on this blog much. I love to read about the weather as I am trying to learn. There have been many times that I would like to ask questions, however my questions are usually already answered by the weather crew or the other serious weather bloggers before I ask. Thank you all. I would also like to say that I really respect the WKTV weather crew. They are very informative and they not only do their best but they also don't just throw out a forecast and then leave it at that. They keep us informed and change the forecast as needed. They also take time to answer our questions in detail to help us learn. No one is perfect...and if you live in CNY then you know weather can change quickly and be different from one place to another. With that in mind I think you guys and gal are doing a great job. Keep it up..other then those few no name full of criticism bloggers... We appreciate you !!

    Posted February 15th at 9:12 AM

  56. Matt Lanza:

    I agree with Bill's assessment. John in Cold Brook...if you follow along close enough, and if you go back to the entry from the storm, you will see on more than one occasion me explaining what went wrong on the front end of the storm and admitting it wasn't going to work out as expected, so to call us arrogant is misinformed on your end. Again, though, I'll let the linked map with numbers speak for itself.

    What amuses me most about this is that the people coming to our defense are the same people that have given us kudos for nailing the previous multiple events...and the people ragging on us I've never seen here before....where were you for those? We don't expect kudos when we get calls right...it is our job to do that. But it just appears that a minority of people, who come on here with aliases, look for any reason to complain...it's like they wait until we misstep and they have to be there to remind us that we did. And like Bill said, we will continue to inform and teach the viewers regardless of this, and as long as you all continue learning and get your questions answered through here, then we've accomplished our mission. And thank you for continuing to be loyal to us.

    Posted February 15th at 9:31 AM

  57. Truthsayer:

    Wow .. interesting blog posts .. as anyone that follows this blog im sure you all have seen my name .. and i have said things both positive and negative ... but ya this past storm was a pain in the A** i watched it progress this was a tricky one. The warm air kinda snuck in and when that happens you have to change the forcast so yes wktv weather team did change there predictions ..but the weather changed its mind to .. they study the weather... use models ... they dont use the Psychic friends network, wigi boards, or tea leaves ... so if the weather changes its pattern GUESS WHAT they gotta change something ... the forcast evolves just as the storm does...so yea its a science but its not excact deal with it. Its upstate Ny where if ya dont like the weather ... give it an hour ... it will change

    Posted February 15th at 9:47 AM

  58. mark:

    back when I was a kid watching the weather a local rochester station They used to list what they perdicted the high and low temp for yesturady day was going to be. Then they reported what the actual temp was. And if they got it right it was like they won a bingo contest! A bell went off and the guy got excited! I think his name was Bob Mills. But mind you this was back in the 60's and they slid a cover back out of the way to expose the actual temp #. It was funny you didn't see a correct answer allot but you always rooted for the guy to get it right it was fun!

    Posted February 15th at 10:05 AM

  59. Abner (Holland Patent):

    WEATHER TEAM: Stop feeding into those negative bloggers who are trying to bash you. They're just looking for you to get all defensive. Hook, Line and Sinker you're taking their bait. Let your work speak for itself. If you don't like people bashing you, block them from your blog......this is your blog, isn't it?

    Posted February 15th at 10:37 AM

  60. Mel (Westernville):

    Snowing pretty good here now - visibility down to half a mile - temp at 33 degrees

    Posted February 15th at 10:47 AM

  61. Bill Kardas:

    New maps added to our weather maps page. Snowfall depth and 24 hour temperature change! Click here to check it out. Let me know what you think.

    Posted February 15th at 10:48 AM

  62. Teresa in Utica:

    Hmmm...last time I checked I think God was in control of the weather, not the meteorologists. That said, I think the guys (and gal) on here do a great job. I have been watching the blog for 3 months and never really said anything....but I really love having a place to go where I can see the minute by minute changes. I will give kudos..even when you are off a bit because you are correct more often than not AND why would anyone think that the weather is an exact science? Keep up the good work.

    Posted February 15th at 10:58 AM

  63. MG (Point Rock):

    Bill -
    I enjoyed looking over the new maps. I do think you need to work on the snow depth page. Where I am, 3 miles south of the Lewis Co. line, the map shows me having 4-7 inches, but this morning, I measured 24 inches. Also Mel in Westernville reported 22 inches yesterday. Have you looked at the Cocorahs website? They don't have that many places reporting snowdepth, but it still might help.

    Posted February 15th at 11:05 AM

  64. MG(Point Rock):

    Also, it's hard to believe that Redfield only has 4-7 inches on the ground, after all the snow they've received lately

    Posted February 15th at 11:08 AM

  65. B (Herkimer):

    I have lived in this area my entire life. I remember the days of weather men and weather women, there were no meteorologists. They were hardly ever right with their forecasts. Over the years I have seen an attitude in the local people that just has it in their head that WKTV never gets the weather right. They don't pay attention to all of the good that the station provides in regards to weather, they only notice when there are slight discrepancies and make a big deal out of them. I took a weather class in college and my (meteorologist) teacher said that central New York is the hardest weather to predict in the world due to many factors. So the next time we have a storm coming at us watch WKTV and the weather channel and tell me which one is more accurate. I will be on WKTV every time.

    Posted February 15th at 11:13 AM

  66. Matt HP:

    Been Snowing quite hard here for sometime. Visibility of less than a quarter mile.

    Posted February 15th at 11:23 AM

  67. Sue in Marcy (at work in East Utica):

    It is really too bad that some people have nothing better to do than to put other people down. I was brought up with the old saying that if you cant say something nice, don’t say it at all. On that note.I can say that I always check out the blog and have even posted a couple questions, because I know that my question no matter how silly will be answered and not ridiculed. The WKTV weather team is doing a great job and I give them a lot of credit.

    Right now it is a lightly snowing in East Utica on the Frankfort border but the snow is so light it isnRt sticking to any of the cars in the parking lot. The snow total for lower Marcy is about right at 4-7 inches depending where you measure it.

    Posted February 15th at 11:30 AM

  68. Lisa(Ilion):

    Is there any chance that maybe we can all get back into the weather discussions? Ignore them, because the more you notice these people, the more they will slam on WKTV. Whats going on for Sunday into Monday?

    Posted February 15th at 11:39 AM

  69. Matt Lanza:

    MG: I have seen reports that off-trail depths at Redfield are 70-80"! I'm assuming that our modeled snow depth is having a tough time picking up on it. Bill and I have noticed it's not bad really...except on the Tug Hill...where it can be way off.

    Just to get on task here...I am off today and the weekend, so I don't want to comment too much on the forecast to tread on Bill and Jill's toes. But Sunday's storm looks like mostly rain and limited, minor icing at the onset, mainly N & E. We are going to begin pushing February rainfall records soon. There's another event later next week that is drawing my interest right now...in that it could be a very challenging overrunning situation....where warmer air floods in, but the cold air won't budge...could mean more ice...but it's 7 days off...so don't get too concerned yet.

    Posted February 15th at 11:53 AM

  70. roady:

    You should scrap the snow depth page as it's way off and will only generate more criticism.

    Posted February 15th at 11:56 AM

  71. Jan:

    People forget that a few miles can make a difference with any storm, or in temperatures. That can't be taken into consideration with forecasts - in fact they tell us that a few miles can make a difference. While it may not have been exactly what was forecasted in Cold Brook and some other places, it was right on in the majority of the places. The same with snow totals. Because of that snow totals can differ probably 50 times in a 10 mile radius. No one can measure every single city, town, village, etc.and report the difference. Let's just get on with it.

    Also, Bill - congrats on your engagement! I just hope you and Matt stay with WKTV for years!

    Posted February 15th at 12:08 PM

  72. Mel (Westernville):

    Yeah I would look at the CoCoRAHS website for actual data. I update my snowpack depth at least once a week there, and do my daily precip reports at 8:00am everyday.

    Posted February 15th at 12:20 PM

  73. Steve:

    Is there anyone who can verify the accuracy of this tool, and also tell me the details of how it works? I think its awesome that they can do this but I am just wondering how they do this and if it is actually an accurate tool. BTW, you can view any area by zooming out and you can also move around and zoom in on certain locations. Here is the link

    Thanks, keep up the good work.

    Posted February 15th at 12:40 PM

  74. MG(Point Rock):

    Steve -
    That's an awesome mapping tool. I can't say that I know how they do it, but I can say that it looks very accurate for my part of Northern Oneida County.

    Posted February 15th at 1:17 PM

  75. Mel (Westernville):

    The legend dasy the little squares are stations - maybe that is feeding data in from the people who report via CoCORAHS?

    Posted February 15th at 1:29 PM

  76. John (Ohio):

    The depth chart in #61 is well short in central Herkimer county, 2 to 3 feet deep (minimum) in the backyard

    Posted February 15th at 1:40 PM

  77. Steve (SUNY Oswego):

    I'm not even sure how I found that snowdepth mapping tool. I think I was just cruising around the NOAA website, which is loaded with neat tools like that.

    Posted February 15th at 1:51 PM

  78. Matt Lanza:

    That site Steve linked to, I actually put on our old Winter Weather Links page...a bit dated, but still may be useful. It's all satellite derived. There is a way for a satellite to estimate snow depth. I think also factored into the algorithm that spits out the map are reports, total precip, etc. And for the most part that link is spot on. We use that a lot to try and estimate how much water equivalent is in the snow pack, especially in spring when it melts, because you can figure out more easily where the flooding concerns are. It's a great site that every winter weather lover should have bookmarked.

    Posted February 15th at 1:55 PM

  79. Jodi ~ (Ilion):

    YAY!!! I like the regional map VERY much!! No offense but I had to keep going to the weather channel page to see what was coming from outside the state or how far down a storm line went. Now I don't have to=)

    Posted February 15th at 1:56 PM

  80. Michelle in Holland Patent:

    I have to say i think that WKTV meteorologists are right on with their forecasts , My son is 5 and he has a brain malformation called Mega cisterna Magna basically it means a cyst on his brain barometric pressure effects this so if it is going to storm ethan is in a horrible mood because it causes him to be uncomfortable having this blog and knowing what to expect from the weather is a great resource for me i know how to plan my day with ethan because of this blog beleive it or not 9 times out of 10 these guys have been right on the ball with the storms lately and i have my 5 yr old son and his brain to prove it :) Thank to Matt, Bill, Jill and Adam for helping this mom :)

    Posted February 15th at 2:19 PM

  81. Andy Forestport:

    Bill

    Congrats. on your engagement ... All the best wishes...

    Posted February 15th at 3:14 PM

  82. Brian:

    I measured on average 25 inches of snow on the ground in Old Forge. Picked up 2 inches of new snow today. You guys and ladies keep up the great weather forecasting. There is not one weather team out there that can top the team you have. Thanks for the great work!!

    Posted February 15th at 8:42 PM

  83. mike m(binghamton):

    went skiing up at greek peak tonight. it snowed very hard for about an hr dropping about 2 inches of fluff, then the snow just kinda floated from the sky all night leaving maybe another half inch. snow depth up on the mountain is about 8-12 inches. not bad, the trails were excellent!!!

    Posted February 15th at 9:52 PM

  84. mike m( binghamton):

    BTW, wktv weather team, i want to give u props on your winter forecast, i beleive your forecast was for a cold and snowy end to winter. well i can certainly see how that happens, lets look at the signals. Artic oscillation is going sharply negative just before march 1st. NAO looks to be headed negative by march 1st, and PNA looks to be headed back positive toward march 1st all good signals of cold and snow for CNY. also teh euro, gfs and cmc models are all starting to show the potential for fairly major snowstorms in the long range, now these can never be trusted, but it is good sign.

    Posted February 15th at 10:01 PM

  85. Matt Lanza:

    Mike M: Remember how I mentioned that there has been research linking stratospheric warming in the Arctic to an eventual dumping of cold air? Lookin' good. All systems are a-go right now for an interesting end to winter...and remember, the research into climatology of La Nina winters pointed to a busy December and a busy March. I'm off, so I have not glanced at much of anything, but that appears to be the bottom line.

    Posted February 15th at 10:57 PM

  86. Matt Lanza:

    Also, for those that might be interesting in learning a little bit about exactly how difficult forecasting storms in this particular winter has been, the NWS Binghamton has put a case study of the Dec 15-16 storm and the Feb 1 storm, which illustrates how challenging these storms were. This past week's storm was very similar in nature...almost to the "T." I encourage anyone with an interest in meteorology or forecasting who would like to learn more to check it out.

    Posted February 15th at 11:03 PM

  87. Dan - Elbridge/Orwell:

    Hi Matt - I see in a recent post you indicated that you saw a post for 70-80" of snow on the ground in Redfield. I think I know where you got that - Salmon Hills? I've there postings and do question them - in terms of 24 hr. snowfall and snow depth.

    Our camp is about a mile east of them. We have about 24-30" on the ground and although we've received allot of snow, not as much as they seem to post. I'd like to report that area for you, but we're not up there enough.

    Nice little LE event developing now in Elbridge (15 miles W. of Syracuse. Snowing light to moderate since mid afternoon. Just 2 or 3" new, but the lake is beginning to fill in. We'll see.

    Posted February 16th at 12:23 AM

  88. Rob(whitesboro):

    Matt Lanza just keep it rolling....your the best!And I know that for a fact!!

    Posted February 16th at 1:30 AM

  89. randy Vitullo:

    Good morning Matt, Bill, Jill, Adam and everyone else. Any new information on the upcoming storm? Do you think there might be significant backend snow with this sytem?

    Posted February 16th at 7:52 AM

  90. Jules (Ilion):

    We need a nice mild finish to this winter...think Spring.... :)

    Posted February 16th at 9:20 AM

  91. randy Vitullo:

    Jules, you aren't going to get spring in february..........come on...Typically, march is a winter month. We will see about that though......Think snow.....

    Posted February 16th at 10:19 PM

  92. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Fresh 2" of snow and a calm wind has let my temp plummet. Down to 2 degrees.

    Posted February 16th at 11:02 PM

  93. Piseco Lake:

    -4 degrees in Piseco with clear skies and no wind.

    Posted February 17th at 6:16 AM

  94. randy Vitullo:

    How much snow are we expecting at the end of this storm? How far north are we expecting the lake effect?

    Posted February 17th at 7:34 AM

  95. Denys (East Winfield):

    It's a bright and sunny 24 degrees here this morning. The trees on the hill behind my house are swaying, and I can hear the wind. But, I can only feel a light breeze here at the house.

    Posted February 17th at 7:54 AM

  96. Jules (Ilion):

    Come on bring on those mild temps...Ill take 40s rather than the 9 degrees I had this am...0nly 31 days till spring.....:)

    Posted February 17th at 9:43 AM

  97. Piseco Lake:

    8 degrees now in Piseco, partly cloudy skies.

    Posted February 17th at 9:47 AM

  98. mike m ( binghamton):

    shot up quickly to 33.6 degrees here, precip is arriving now, well see if we can get some evap cooling. this is going to be predominetly a rain storm, but lets hope we do not get much rain, for the skiers, and snowmobilers sake; and also so we do not get any flooding. matt, how is the long range looking to you, any date stick out as to when the colder/snowier pattern may kick in?

    Posted February 17th at 11:19 AM

  99. Matt Lanza:

    Randy: Very little snow from your area south behind this storm. In fact, I'd be surprised if we got any accumulating snow through Tuesday.

    Mike M: Lake snows will be around most of the week and it will be cold...doesn't look like tremendous lake snows (beginning to cross the threshold into the time of year where it begins getting difficult to get LES during daylight)...but they'll be around (who and how much is too early to say). So we're in a more favorable pattern for sure. The late week overrunning event looks to be a miss to the south. Our next chance of anything appreciable is around next weekend...and could be either snow, ice or rain. La Nina is rearing her ugly head....gets very tough to get the snow in this kind of pattern. NAO stays positive or neutral. PNA is positive, so we're getting the cold, but no other players are lined up. That, however is forecasted to go toward an unfavorable negative. The AO is raging positive still, but it is going to trend toward neutral or negative over the next two weeks. So maybe beyond that time we get into a favorable pattern. We'll see what ends up happening. Those that want spring will have to continue to wait until April at least. I have yet to experience a spring-like March here, and I don't think this year will be an exception.

    Posted February 17th at 11:40 AM

  100. Piseco Lake:

    22 degrees, cloudy skies in Piseco.

    Posted February 17th at 11:49 AM

  101. mike m(binghamton):

    thanks matt, i guess all we can do is wait and see.

    Posted February 17th at 12:11 PM

  102. roady:

    28* with fzra and sleet at the moment with some impressive wind gusts.
    What a poor excuse for a winter!

    Posted February 17th at 12:26 PM

  103. Brian:

    Matt: How do think snowpack will hold up with rain and warm temps in Old Forge. Right now 29 degrees and deep snow pack.

    Posted February 17th at 12:27 PM

  104. Laura (Paris Hill):

    Plain rain just started here. Temp at 33.6. Winds are gusting 30+ MPH.

    Posted February 17th at 12:38 PM

  105. roady:

    Evaporative cooling now taking place. Down to 26.8 and the back roads are treacherous.

    Posted February 17th at 2:01 PM

  106. Terry:

    Its 3:00 o'clock and the rain has started to freeze in St Johnsville, we just walked out back and the driveway was all ice.....Lets hope it turns to rain soon........

    Posted February 17th at 3:02 PM

  107. Denys (East Winfield:

    34 degrees and freezing rain here. Winds are whipping!

    Posted February 17th at 3:03 PM

  108. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    All uncovered roads are fine here. Anything with snow on it has turned into a slippery sheet of ice though. Be careful on snow covered roads till they can get treated!

    Posted February 17th at 3:09 PM

  109. mike m(binghamton):

    Brian, snowpack will be fine in old forge, it is only going to get into the low 40 briefly up there from about daybreadk tomorrow through maybe noon, i would expect only a few inches to melt, if that.

    Posted February 17th at 3:28 PM

  110. Brian:

    Light freezing rain falling in Old Forge. Temps are not moving much at all.

    Posted February 17th at 3:30 PM

  111. Rob(whitesboro):

    It's been an all rain event here.Temps been right around 35 degrees.

    Posted February 17th at 3:39 PM

  112. Piseco Lake:

    25 degrees, freezing rain with sleet falling in Piseco.

    Posted February 17th at 3:53 PM

  113. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    31.6 degrees here with freezing rain. Main roads appear to be fine, but back roads are likely slick. I am actually glad it has warmed up here, so I can get that darn ice off the sidewalks and driveway. As for spring, that is just a date and we all know from last year that CNY weather doesn't play by the rules. I still had snow on the ground in spots up until the begining of May.

    Posted February 17th at 4:51 PM

  114. Stacy (Stratford):

    30 Degrees here and roads are very trecherous! Even route 29A is covered in ice. Freezing rain continues to fall here. I'd be surprised, if no-one in this area experiences a loss of power. Power lines are droopy from the weight of the ice. I thought it was suppose to warm up? Are we still calling for 43 degrees tommorrow?

    Posted February 17th at 5:00 PM

  115. Brian:

    Winds have really picked up from the south. Warm air must be mixing in from above, temp went above 32.

    Posted February 17th at 5:14 PM

  116. Piseco Lake:

    27 degrees with light rain.

    Posted February 17th at 6:01 PM

  117. Matt Lanza:

    I'm off, so I'm not speaking officially here, but temperatures should continue rising and everyone will go over to plain rain if they haven't already. Stacy: That 43 they were calling for is for Rome...your area will always be at least a bit colder. I would suspect you make upper 30s, maybe 40 tomorrow at best. But the freezing rain will end over the next few hours. Jill and Bill called for a 38 today..and wouldn't you know it...we're at 38. :)

    Posted February 17th at 6:31 PM

  118. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    The roads here are very very bad, numerous reports of issues with ice.

    Posted February 17th at 6:34 PM

  119. roady:

    still only 27.4 here no precip but real icy in the hills

    Posted February 17th at 6:47 PM

  120. mike m ( binghamton):

    jeff, are you below freezing still, i have a family member who is suppose to drive to binghamton from Oneonta at 11pm tonight; how is 88?

    Posted February 17th at 6:51 PM

  121. mike m ( binghamton):

    i realize that is a stupid question because you have probably not been on 88 today; let me rephrase that lol, by your observations how do you THINK 88, is?

    Posted February 17th at 6:52 PM

  122. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Just seems to be the town and county roads in the hills that are bad. I havent had one report of any problems on 88 in the county but it is only like 7 miles through our county.

    Posted February 17th at 7:03 PM

  123. Piseco Lake:

    29 degrees and moderate rain continues in Piseco.

    Posted February 17th at 8:05 PM

  124. Michelle Holland patent:

    Raining here and there continues to be slick roads rt. 365 was slippery as i almost got in a accident and was going about 30 at most black ice is around be careful :)

    Posted February 17th at 9:06 PM

  125. Jill Reale:

    Precipitation is ending for the viewing area as a dry slot moves and temperatures are already beginning to soar. Rome is at 40and we are sitting at 39º on Smith Hill. SYR is at 44, ROC 46 and BUF 48. Next round of precipitation wont arrive until around or after daybreak. Secondary roads, especially to the east of Utica, may still be slick.

    Posted February 17th at 9:14 PM

  126. roady:

    Still only 30 here. town and county roads are bad. Some spots in town are also bad. I spoke to a friend coming back from NYC and 17 is icy with accidents galore.

    Now travel advisory from the NWS????? So now they can't even now cast being that it's been like this for the past 9 hours or so.

    Like I said you can't rely on the weather guessers

    Posted February 17th at 9:22 PM

  127. mike m ( binghamton):

    jeff, thanks, temps are starting to "soar" here, as we are up to 41 degrees, also very windy with gusts up to 40mph.

    Posted February 17th at 9:38 PM

  128. roady:

    finally it's 33 let the melting commence

    Posted February 17th at 10:14 PM

  129. MJ (Trenton):

    32 here at 8:00pm.
    Presently has soared up to 37.

    Maybe its me, seems cooler than forecast? Can we get back to some snow sooner?

    No wind to speak of.

    Posted February 17th at 11:38 PM

  130. mike m ( binghamton):

    well here is my take on the long range; it certainly seems stormy, but the real question will be, can cold air become locked in place over the east so we can get storms tracking up the coast, or to our south, or will the storms continue to track west of us through the lakes. which paths these storms take over the next 5-7 weeks will determine if we end up near or above average in snowfall or well below average.

    Posted February 17th at 11:57 PM

  131. Bill Kardas:

    Warm air cracked into most of viewing area. Rome at 46, 47 on Smith Hill. Looking at some other readings, only exception to this would be eastern Mohawk Valley (east of Little Falls) where temps are still in the upper 30s. Snowpack is looking weak out here. We lost a lot this morning, but it was hard to really see the damage due to darkness and severe lack of sleep (<2 hours).

    Posted February 18th at 4:29 AM

  132. Denys (East Winfield):

    4:55am - Good Morning all - 48 degrees and windy here! Moderate rain falling. A lot of the snow is gone.

    Posted February 18th at 5:02 AM

  133. Bill Kardas:

    We hit 50 here on Smith Hill! Nice to see the pavement up here in the parking lot for a change.

    Posted February 18th at 7:10 AM

  134. Sarah:

    Wow! It is warm out! I love it! 48 degrees at 8:30 in N. Utica. It looks pretty "gross" out, but I will take it. I would love to not have to bundle my kids up every time we go out. I would love this to be the end of winter...wishful thinking, huh?

    Posted February 18th at 8:40 AM

  135. randy Vitullo:

    Sarah, the real nice spring weather doesn't typically arrive until the middle of May. Winter always drags on until the end of March, at least. I hope March does its usual, snowy, wintry thing. Then, let April come on hot.......

    Posted February 18th at 9:51 AM

  136. Laura (Paris Hill):

    Winds were very strong and did some damage to roofs around our area last night. We lost numerous shingles as did many houses around us. Some decent damage to a garage roof down the road.

    Posted February 18th at 10:27 AM

  137. Bill Kardas:

    Randy,

    I guess it all depends on your point of view. I would consider anything 'real nice' to be over 50 and no snow. My outdoor season is usually mid April to mid October.

    Posted February 18th at 10:33 AM

  138. Brad (Oneonta):

    54 degrees here.

    Posted February 18th at 10:38 AM

  139. randy Vitullo:

    Bill, I thought you purchased a new pair of snowshoes? Temperatures consistently higher than 50 degrees F typically doesn't happen in this area until the 3rd week in April. The first two weeks are usually like November with 30s and 40s and rain/snow showers (not much for accum., but snow showers just the same). Just speaking from experience. Also, with the exception of the past 4 or 5 years, Feb. break (3rd week Feb.) typically would see rainy, warm weather with a return to winter just as break ended. Then, March would follow with winter like conditions until around the 20th or 25th. Only speaking from experience (50 years in this area).

    Posted February 18th at 11:29 AM

  140. mike(leonardsville):

    I personally think that spring is here at the start of april. Sure you get some snow, but we usually don't have any lake effect snow. I think when the ice is off of the lakes, and that the streams are good for fishing is when spring is here. Randy you are crazy to think that winter lasts until mid May. Sure you may get a fluke snow event but they don't happen very often. This sure hasn't been much of a winter to me, it's been more like a constant Novemember all winter. That's my opinion not your opininon. I say let it be spring and just think there is less than a month before the time change which makes me very happy.

    Posted February 18th at 12:54 PM

  141. mike m ( binghamton):

    i guess i underestimated snow melt, as all of our snow is gone here, except for in the woods. friday and saturday are starting to look more interesting, esp down my way; gfs is painting over .75 inches of qpf, which would be in the form of snow right along the NY/pa border. i beleive it was around or just under a half inch for utica.

    Posted February 18th at 12:55 PM

  142. Jules (Ilion):

    I agree. let it be like spring ...love the warmer temps....as far as Im concerned Ive had enough of the brutal cold snow and ice....let the sun shine

    Posted February 18th at 1:03 PM

  143. Matt Lanza:

    I don't mind the snow...but the frequent bouts with ice are enough to drive me insane. I'm not so sure we aren't done with ice either. When we fell back into a winter pattern and got more ice than snow out of it is when I realized I'm completely ready for spring. I'll try not to show a bias, but...it's tough! I think a lot of you are forgetting how rough December was...the first 20 days or so of that month were pretty significant in the winter department, and we almost had a top 10 snowiest December on record. Since about the 20th, there's been little to talk about, but...let's see what the next few weeks have to offer. I usually feel safe once we get past March 29th. That's the latest Utica has ever observed a snowfall of 12" or greater. Another argument could be made for March 19th, which is the latest Utica has ever observed a below zero temperature. More obviously tonight!

    Posted February 18th at 1:15 PM

  144. Andrea Utica:

    Now i know most are ready for spring but i for one am waiting for the 2nd half of winter. Doesnt seem like we've really had alot of snow this year, more of the mix. Im more than grateful for the Dec snow as it allowed an earlier snowmobile season. But have only been able to ride local a handful of times with the remaining sled activity having to trailer north. Matt anything on the horizon for snow, short term or long term potential? Any "snow reports" from Piseco area after this warm up would be more than appreciated.

    Posted February 18th at 1:25 PM

  145. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt, check out the mesoscale models on buffalos page; they are forecasting some pretty intense sw to NE orientied bands coming of lake erie and affecting areas in between binghamton to utica. what do you think about accumulating potential with these bands?

    Posted February 18th at 1:26 PM

  146. Matt(Marcy):

    Matt, how will the viewing of the lunar eclipse be on Wednesday around 9pm

    Posted February 18th at 1:26 PM

  147. Matt Lanza:

    Mike/Matt: We'll touch on all that later tonight. I will say, I am suspcious that Erie could generate intense lake snow bands when there is a significant ice coverage. I'll investigate later and post a new entry covering that, the eclipse and more.

    Posted February 18th at 1:49 PM

  148. randy Vitullo:

    Snowpack has held once again in Holland Patent. It looks to anywhere form 4 inches to about 10 inches still on the ground. JULES: What brutal cold? This has been a very mild winter. We have had maybe four days of below normal cold. Maybe five? If that. I am tired of the ice and the rain..... Today's warmup occurred mainly during the nighttime hours. We have been back at 35 since about noon.

    Posted February 18th at 1:49 PM

  149. Rob(whitesboro):

    It really doesn't get anymore boring than this.Snowpack here is about 3".The Euro looks more aggressive than the GFS late week.So that's at least something.Otherwise..???

    Posted February 18th at 2:59 PM

  150. mike m ( binghamton):

    les watches out for tug hill area, over a foot possible toward central and norther hill.

    Posted February 18th at 3:26 PM

  151. Andy Forestport:

    Matt

    Any chance the LES hits N. Onieda County

    Posted February 18th at 4:08 PM

  152. Jules (Ilion):

    Randy:::I really dont care what your opinion is..please dont comment on mine as you have in comment 148 and in the past
    thankyou

    Posted February 18th at 4:20 PM

  153. Matt Lanza:

    Andy: There is. But I am concerned winds are too much WSW to allow a good hit. It will be very close and worth watching the next couple days.

    Posted February 18th at 4:25 PM

  154. randy Vitullo:

    Just stating a fact about the mild winter Jules. No harm intended. Just stating my opinion.

    Posted February 18th at 5:29 PM

  155. Matt Lanza:

    Alright folks...dinner for me, then I'll get down on the next blog entry. Lots of stuff to talk about...not all snow-related.

    Posted February 18th at 6:33 PM

  156. Matt Lanza:

    New entry up!

    Posted February 18th at 8:00 PM

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