A weak area of low pressure will drag a warm front through the area this morning. A cold front moves in this afternoon. The cold front has the potential of producing severe weather today.
Summary: The cold front swings through later this afternoon (5-8pm). The threat for thunderstorms as of this morning looks to be between 3-8pm. Some storms could grow to severe standards, producing winds in excess of 58mph along with hail over 1" in diameter. For more details on how we came up with our forecast, see the discussion below...
Instability
There will be a decent amount of instability in the atmosphere this afternoon ahead of that cold front. CAPE values exceed 2000j/kg on the NAM, with the lifted index falling below -6 near the Capital District. These numbers are relatively high for Central New York standards (on a scale of 1-10 here, this would be like a 7 or 8). Sunshine is the key here. Our forecast models are assuming that temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s today...something that will only happen if we get enough sunshine. So, sky conditions will be important this morning and afternoon. We need the sun in order to charge the atmosphere.
Wind shear
Wind shear, which aids in helping thunderstorms maintain their updrafts, will be sufficient today for sustained storms. We have a decent amount of speed shear and directional shear on BUFKIT. In other words there won't be many 'pulsers' here today as there would without wind shear. It's possible, though not likely, that a few of these storms could rotate. Rotating storms primarily produce strong winds and hail. Rotating storms also have the ability to produce a tornado. The odds of this happening today are quite low, but not zero.
Trigger
The trigger will be that cold front, which will cross the area between 5-8pm today. The timing of the front is favorable for strong weather because it arrives close to the peak heating of the day. Even if storms fire up ahead of the front, they will still be with us during 'prime time'. So, from a forecasting standpoint, there's reason for us to be concerned and on watch for stronger storms later today.
We will keep you up to speed on the situation as we head throughout the afternoon, so check the comments section for the latest. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to post below and we'll get back to you as soon as we can (we may be a bit busy this afternoon though so be patient). You can find the latest weather conditions from our weather bloggers in the comments section as well.
Comments
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Robert (Rome):
The Sun is shining here in Rome. Could spell some bad weather for later.
Posted July 21st at 10:22 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
you don’t normally see sounding like this in NYS. A inverted V is most commonly found in the High Plains, with this type of set-up Super Cells and organized muti-cluster thunderstorms are a real possibility. tornadoes are a slight slight possibility, However of much bigger concern will be the possibility of Microburst, violent straight line winds and maybe some large hail.
Posted July 21st at 10:54 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Watch box will be issued shortly by SPC for the area.
Posted July 21st at 10:56 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
They will also be upgrading parts of NY State into the “Moderate Risk”.
Posted July 21st at 10:58 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
SPC is upgrading New York to moderate.
Posted July 21st at 11:02 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Sorry Rob, I didn’t see your post
Posted July 21st at 11:03 AM
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fairfield:
hold on you too..LOL....laymans terms please, me no understand :)
Posted July 21st at 11:07 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
SPC Mesoscale discussion Long story short, the SPC is on board with severe weather today, as are we. Look for watch boxes to come up within the next few hours.
Posted July 21st at 11:09 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
A moderate risk for severe weather is about as high as it gets here in Central New York. Wind damage is going to be the primary concern.
Posted July 21st at 11:09 AM
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jessie :
whens it all look to start
Posted July 21st at 11:12 AM
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Robert (Rome):
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...VT..NY..NRN PA..NH..WRN ME..MA..NWRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 211443Z – 211645Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED...STATE LISTING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN NY AND SRN ONTARIO ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. WW/S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. IN ADDITION...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO NY/PA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK WITH 45% WIND PROBABILITY IN THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. 12Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOW VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK /120 KT AT 250 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS CROSSING THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS LAKES TODAY...WITH THE LEFT EXIT JET REGION MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME WRN QUE IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES ACROSS EXTREME SRN QUE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING EWD INTO THE NERN STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING NEWD INTO NY AND PA ATTM...AND AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FROM ERN LAKE ONT INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NWD. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...WITH MULTIPLE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL MONITORED CLOSELY AND WW/S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 16Z.Posted July 21st at 11:16 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
I’ve got the car gased up and I am putting my equipment (Laptop, radeo, exc) in.
Posted July 21st at 11:22 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
that’s radio
Posted July 21st at 11:24 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
NWS has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for the area
Posted July 21st at 11:29 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
It took this off of Tony’s site. CNYWeather.com
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY ALLEGANY BROOME
CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA
CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON
COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE
DUTCHESS ERIE ESSEX
FRANKLIN FULTON GENESEE
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON
MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY
NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA
ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO
OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER
SENECA ST. LAWRENCE STEUBEN
SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WYOMING YATESPosted July 21st at 11:34 AM
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fairfield:
Becky, come back, don’t leave now! :)
Posted July 21st at 11:36 AM
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skeptic:
I am going out on a limb and will say we may get a few garden variety thunderstorms but every time you guys get all excited and hyped up about a severe weather outbreak nothing comes of it. Time will tell but I bet this will be a bust.
Posted July 21st at 11:37 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
stuff is starting to pop up west of Syracuse and south of Rochester.
It’s going to be a busy day!!
Posted July 21st at 11:39 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
fairfield. I won’t, I promise ; ) I’m Just getting ready in case some cell look promising and I decide to chase for while.
Posted July 21st at 11:45 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Watch is posted up across Central New York. Storms already firing up across Western New York. This is a good setup, but time will tell how it plays out.
Posted July 21st at 11:45 AM
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He shoots...:
Skeptic,
Why are you here?
Posted July 21st at 11:48 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Warnings in effect for the two cells out near Rochester and Ithica. Radar flagging 1” and 1.5” hail.
Posted July 21st at 12:07 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
They should become more intense as they push east.
Posted July 21st at 12:18 PM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):
Here we go!
Gonna be a very busy afternoon. Get some good picts if you chaseBecky!
Posted July 21st at 12:29 PM
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nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):
At work out in Oneida – sun has been out pretty much all morning, very warm and extremely breezy. It has that feeling like you know something’s gonna happen.
Posted July 21st at 12:33 PM
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jessie (ilion):
very sunny and windy here as well hoping nothing to bad pops i smoke alot when a storm is coming and i think i picked a bad day to try and stop smoking
Posted July 21st at 12:37 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
one of the cell out west is flagging between egg size and tennis ball size
I will tony!!
Posted July 21st at 12:44 PM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):
No to panic anyone, but didnt the SPC also have a 5% risk or tornadoes? Again, not to panic anyone.
I see the ASOS in Ithaca is reporting hail. How the heck can it do that?
Posted July 21st at 12:52 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Tony, there is a threat of an isolated tornado or two; East of the Mohawk Valley has the best chance of seeing tornadoes. I would be more worried about tornadoes if the surface winds and winds aloft were not so much in alignment.
Posted July 21st at 12:59 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
The 5% is for Albany and points east. The SPC has CNY at a 2% risk for seeing a tornado.
Posted July 21st at 1:03 PM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):
Oh ok. thanks.
Posted July 21st at 1:06 PM
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kelly Mohawk:
It looks like the good cells are moving to the southeast is this true? I hope they more more east or a little north. I live right next to the truway in Mohawk.
Posted July 21st at 1:09 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Cell near Malone has a decent hail core. flagging 2.25 inch hail
Posted July 21st at 1:12 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Numerous severe storms firing up close to the area. The Malone storm has some rotation with it, now upgraded to a tornado warning in northern new york. The storms around here are hinting at some broad scale rotation, but so far nothing too dangerous.
Posted July 21st at 1:14 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Kelly, right now the cell over Syracuse is moving WNW. But, that could change
Posted July 21st at 1:15 PM
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kelly:
ok thanks Becky
Posted July 21st at 1:17 PM
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Tony -CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland, NY):
The one up north has a Tornado Warning with it.
Posted July 21st at 1:21 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Kelly, I gave you the wrong direction it’s coming from the WNW and is moving ESE
Posted July 21st at 1:24 PM
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New Hartford:
It looks like the storm over south Syracuse is going to head a little South of us… towards the Morrisville, Hamilton area… is that correct?
I’ve been following this blog for a while, and just starting to learn from all of you!
Posted July 21st at 1:25 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Two reports of 1” hail from those storms in Western New York and one report of wind damage so far. We can confirm now that these storms that are moving into CNY have had a history of producing severe weather.
Posted July 21st at 1:25 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Syracuse storm on track for passing south of the valley. Stuff likely will pop up over the next few hours over the area.
Posted July 21st at 1:26 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Bill it looked like if there was a doppler indicated tornado, it passed just south of Malone.
Posted July 21st at 1:31 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
The Lake Breeze boundary is sure giving Rochester a hard time today.
Posted July 21st at 1:36 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Becky I think that boundary is about to explode. I can see it on clear air mode. Roughly from you…back to the SW
Posted July 21st at 1:39 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I just heard some thunder to the east.
Posted July 21st at 1:47 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Rob, yeah I see that too, just got a quick burst of rain.
Storm spotters report wind damage in Bangor up in franklin County , Bangor is about 2.5 miles WSW of Malone. SPC says a roof was laying in the road. This is right where the Doppler showed the strongest rotation.Posted July 21st at 1:51 PM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
Becky,
You can see that downwind from both Lake Ontario (from Watertown into Northern Oneida) and Lake Erie (Jamestown), the lake has stabilized that air for the time being
Posted July 21st at 1:52 PM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
TOR warning in Wayne County PA
Posted July 21st at 1:53 PM
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Jimbo (whitesboro):
Bill, I can tell you that the storm that went through Auburn between 12:50 and 1:05 was a nasty little bugger. You could hear the thunder in the distance starting at 12:30, but by12:50 it was here as I was outside eating lunch. BTW I did notice what appeared to be some rotating in the lower level clouds, they sort of seamed to swirl a little, does that make sense? The winds were very gusty and the rain was heavy. That looks to be the cell passing south toward Madison county I beleive. Just thought I would give you what I was seeing out here.
Posted July 21st at 1:57 PM
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Adam Musyt:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 245 PM EDT.
- AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!Posted July 21st at 1:59 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Jill, things should start popping soon.
Posted July 21st at 2:00 PM
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Kenny:
was suprised to see a storm chase vehichle in washington mills about a hour ago…they were gassing up for the day i guess!
Posted July 21st at 2:04 PM
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Adam Musyt:
We’ve got a way to go yet before the thunderstorm threat goes away. The cold front is still back in Ohio and Michigan.
Posted July 21st at 2:06 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Our Storm Tracker 2 radar shows 1” hail with the storm in Wayne County, just west of Auburn on the NYS Thruway.
Posted July 21st at 2:10 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
The champlain valley is going to get slammed
Posted July 21st at 2:12 PM
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jessie :
does that mean since are cold front is still back by ohio and michigan that the storms are going to last late into tonite
Posted July 21st at 2:22 PM
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jessie :
sorry another stupid question what is the purple i see i wktv radar down by oneonta
Posted July 21st at 2:26 PM
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jessie :
sorry another stupid question what is the purple i see i wktv radar down by oneonta
Posted July 21st at 2:26 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Jessie,
The threat of thunderstorms wil last until the cold front passes through. That’s not to say that everyone will see severe weather or even t-storms, but the chance is there through about sunset.
Posted July 21st at 2:26 PM
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Jimbo (whitesboro):
Adam, I’m about to get that storm in Auburn, I’ll post if I get some hail. looks like it is drifting slightly south of where I am though.
Posted July 21st at 2:27 PM
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Adam Musyt:
There is some hail with the thunderstorm south of Oneonta.
Posted July 21st at 2:27 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Jimbo,
Thanks for filling us in!
Posted July 21st at 2:28 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Nothing wants to fire around here yet. I thought that line would of filled in by now off to our NW. It’s juicy here @ 81/70.
Posted July 21st at 2:34 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Keeping an eye on southern Ontario, the cells up there are growing very quickly. we should start to see clusters or bowing that will move into the North Country.
Posted July 21st at 2:34 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Rob,
Yeah I was thinking that too. It looks like so far today with the cells moving ESE, Lake Ontario has been stabililizing us just a little bit more than along the St. Lawrence and again back to our west where the flow of air over the lake is shorter.
We’ll just watch and wait.
Posted July 21st at 2:40 PM
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jeff:
I want to have a job like the weathermen right or wrong 50% of the time
Posted July 21st at 2:57 PM
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Jimbo (whitesboro):
The storm near Auburn, slid just south, only a very brief downpour for me. oh well.
Posted July 21st at 3:01 PM
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Jack (Clark Mills):
LOL!! I hear ya, Jeff. Seems like a wall around this area that keeps us out of the action most of the time.
Posted July 21st at 3:13 PM
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Adam Musyt:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
328 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 415 PM EDT.
- AT 326 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!Posted July 21st at 3:32 PM
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Kenny:
looks like some cells starting to make a push to cross the lake….these have the best angle on our area based on how everythings moving today….breeze is kicking up a bit now too.
Posted July 21st at 4:15 PM
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fairfield:
Kenny, what lake are you referring too
Posted July 21st at 4:27 PM
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Kenny:
Lake Onterio
Posted July 21st at 4:32 PM
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fairfield:
hey Becky, talked to the hubby who is up in potsdam area and they were really getting hammered about an hr ago, was getting about quarter size hail if not bigger
Posted July 21st at 4:59 PM
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Adam Musyt:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
504 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 545 PM EDT
- AT 501 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.Posted July 21st at 5:09 PM
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fairfield:
i’m feeling left out…...again
Posted July 21st at 5:14 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Adam, coming back from castorland and croghan. I saw the storm in southern Lewis NW of West Leyden. I ran through the core. there was very gusty; winds and small hail on the backside around Byon Crners rd and Sullvan rd. Storm followed me all the way home. right now I’m getting very heavy rain and winds gusting as high as 48 mph.
Posted July 21st at 5:34 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
That’s Byon Corners Rd.
Posted July 21st at 5:37 PM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):
I posted a few picts from on the way home and from home looking north at those storms.
Look for CNYWeather’s Facebook page if you’d like to look.
Posted July 21st at 5:41 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Becky,
Thanks a lot! That’s very helpful!
Posted July 21st at 5:44 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Also, that’s 38 not 48 mph.
Tony, Other than a lightning shot; I just got a few pictures of the storms clouds as well. I had hoped the storms that moved in to the North Country from southern Ontario was going to get going. There was some bowing in Ontario and northern Jefferson. However, they lost some of their punch before they got to me.
Posted July 21st at 5:50 PM
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Mike(Rome):
Was hoping for a storm today, but not even a drop of rain has fallen…
Posted July 21st at 5:54 PM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com:
there are a few big storms crossing over the lake that will skirt south of Watertown and end up way north of you on their current track
Posted July 21st at 5:55 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Tony, They might go between Lowville and West Leyden. Have to wait and see if they hold together.
Posted July 21st at 6:19 PM
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Adam Musyt:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 715 PM EDT
- AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS
ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.Posted July 21st at 6:28 PM
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Adam Musyt:
That storm in Oswego County just went severe. This one is worth keeping an eye on (and of course we will). It’s flagging 1.5” hail.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 730 PM EDT
- AT 633 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.Posted July 21st at 6:44 PM
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fairfield:
any chance of that storm in oswego ever getting to me?
Posted July 21st at 6:54 PM
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JJ:
WOW...alot of strikes from the boltek…almost 70 per min…watching strikes over oswego county…may hit us…cross your fingers.
Posted July 21st at 6:58 PM
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Adam Musyt:
fairfield,
There’s a chance, though it ought to weaken some. Right now the more immediate concern is western Oneida County, should it hold together.
Posted July 21st at 6:59 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Hail is a bit less intense in the cell, though still present. Our radar shows 1/2 to 3/4 inch hail around Fulton.
Posted July 21st at 7:00 PM
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Becky:
have some very strong winds, with quite a bit of rotation overhead
Posted July 21st at 7:31 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Storm in Lewis County has reached severe limits.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
730 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 800 PM EDT
- AT 726 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.Posted July 21st at 7:33 PM
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Becky West Leyden:
there is a funnel cloud heading SE of West Leyden.
Posted July 21st at 7:33 PM
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Adam Musyt:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 830 PM EDT
- AT 728 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS
ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.Posted July 21st at 7:37 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Getting lots of CG, strongest gust was 57 mph. also had some half inch hail.
Posted July 21st at 7:37 PM
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Adam Musyt:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 800 PM EDT.
- AT 727 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.Posted July 21st at 7:38 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
Becky,
Thanks again for your information.
Posted July 21st at 7:43 PM
-
sn (forestport):
wind, rain, thunder – not sure if we have hail or nit but sky is a greenish color – kinda freaking me out
Posted July 21st at 7:50 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
Getting quite dark to the northwest here at the station.
Posted July 21st at 7:51 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
Two cloud to ground strikes in the distance and lots of low rumbling…
Posted July 21st at 7:55 PM
-
sn (forestport):
Adam is this the front coming through now ir is there more coming?
Posted July 21st at 8:00 PM
-
Becky (West Leyden):
SN, I don’t see any TVS on radar, the storm was spinning over this way, with a funnel trying to spin down. It was moving SE of Golden road. It looked to pass SW of Boonville. I funnel doesn’t mean a tornado. The green sky could be hail. Also, sometimes at this time of day, the setting sun can make the clouds and sky look green at times.
Posted July 21st at 8:01 PM
-
Dliddle50:
Seems to have settled down in downtown forestport . it was hot for a few minutes, rain, wind, and lightning. still rumbling in the background. maybe another shot coming thru. keep up the great work team 2 and other regulars. Oops hear more coming
Posted July 21st at 8:03 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
SN,
Front may be lagging just a bit behind this batch of thunderstorms, but it’s not far. Pressures are rising in Rochester and Buffalo – so the front is on it’s way and this current area of storms rolling through ought to be the final batch.
Posted July 21st at 8:05 PM
-
JG:
Lots of wind in Marcy, and dark clouds now…. low thunder….
Posted July 21st at 8:05 PM
-
Becky (West Leyden):
SN, I think that about it for our neck of the woods.
Posted July 21st at 8:05 PM
-
JG:
Ok, pouring and sky is yellow//pinkish now//kind of freaky!
Posted July 21st at 8:07 PM
-
Marcy :
The craziest cloud movements I have ever scene right over Cavanaugh Road.
Posted July 21st at 8:08 PM
-
sn (forestport):
thanks adam and becky – now to see where my trash cans went. have a good night all. :)
Posted July 21st at 8:08 PM
-
fairfield:
rumbles of thunder, now lightning
Posted July 21st at 8:09 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
Rain just starting. Winds gusting, I’d estimate, 30 or 40 miles per hour.
Posted July 21st at 8:09 PM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
Yeah the clouds are really freaky for sure. Especially with the sun out. Getting a heavy sunshower. Max gust 34mph.
Posted July 21st at 8:09 PM
-
JG:
yeah Marcy has some weird cloud movements going over! Weird skies!
Posted July 21st at 8:11 PM
-
fairfield:
wind really picking up, started pouring
Posted July 21st at 8:15 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
811 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 915 PM EDT
- AT 809 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.Posted July 21st at 8:15 PM
-
fairfield:
wind holding in the 20s right now
Posted July 21st at 8:15 PM
-
fairfield:
top speed of 46 so far
Posted July 21st at 8:17 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
Heavy rain, thunder and occasional lightning. Sunny to the west.
Posted July 21st at 8:18 PM
-
fairfield :
already .11” out of this so far
Posted July 21st at 8:22 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
Really nice looking rainbow now to the east. Rain intensity getting lighter quickly.
Posted July 21st at 8:22 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
44 MPH gust at RME!!
Posted July 21st at 8:22 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
Temperature down to 66 as well!
Posted July 21st at 8:23 PM
-
fairfield:
thank you for the “sunny” addition Adam, my daughter was freaking out by seeing an almost orange looking sky. i told her it was the sun going down
Posted July 21st at 8:24 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
821 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 900 PM EDT.
- AT 813 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!Posted July 21st at 8:25 PM
-
Becky (West Leyden):
Temp here dipped to 57, It’s on its way up, Right now it’s 61
Posted July 21st at 8:26 PM
-
Tony - CNYWeather.com:
I just emailed you a couple pictures of the rainbow Adam
Posted July 21st at 8:30 PM
-
Becky (West Leyden):
fairfield, did you get much in the way of rain? The cells move in fast and leave just as quick. Rain total up here is 0.42”
Posted July 21st at 8:30 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
Tony,
Thanks a lot. I’ll show them at 11.
Posted July 21st at 8:32 PM
-
fairfield:
still raining here, down to 63 now, up to .14”
Posted July 21st at 8:32 PM
-
Frankfort:
Well that anticipation was wasted. Sky got really orange, then dark, then it rained for 2 minutes and the sun is out.
Posted July 21st at 8:34 PM
-
Karen (Westmoreland):
I took a beautiful pic of the rainbow as well as some creepy looking clouds that quickly came by… was gonna send it but not sure where to send it to…could someone please let me know the address
Posted July 21st at 8:35 PM
-
eric:
just had some very heavy rain and hail in the storm that just passed through the vernon center area
Posted July 21st at 8:38 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
Karen,
You can send it to weather@wktv.com or you can go onto the Wktv.com website and sign up for You News by clicking the banner at the top of the page.
Posted July 21st at 8:39 PM
-
Linda:
Richfield Springs (town of Warren) Seeing large black cloud-rain in the distance toward the mohawk valley ! Hearing faint rumbling and some lightening in the clouds
Posted July 21st at 8:41 PM
-
Adam Musyt:
Looks like there is one more straggler thunderstorm along the Madison/Oneida county line moving ESE.
Posted July 21st at 8:41 PM
-
fairfield:
nice little storm, total rain of only .15”, beautiful sunset to the west now
Posted July 21st at 8:46 PM
-
Karen (Westmoreland):
thanks Adam.. I sent them…
Posted July 21st at 8:48 PM
-
Herkimer:
Missed us again. Orange sky, some rumbles in the distance and a nice sprinkle for a minute.
Posted July 21st at 8:49 PM
-
Anthony (N.Marcy):
Adam,
I had some very strong winds in N.Marcy around 8pm or so. I also took some really cool pictures I’d like to send in. Where can I submit them to?
Posted July 21st at 8:53 PM
-
Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):
We had about a 40 mph wind gust here with heavy shot of rain, some thunder and lightning as well with the storms when they whipped through here in HP.. I was on top of the hill about 1/2 mile from my house and saw what might have been rotation forming, raining hard to really tell but definately some weird cloud patterns over marcy / deerfield way for sure. My Camera pooped out on me so no pic’s to show but going to by a disposable to keep in the car with me for next time. Looks all quiet till the front comes
Posted July 21st at 8:53 PM
-
Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):
Hey anthony can you put some of the pics on your facebook page ?? temp down to 65.. the colors were amazing to look at, very rare to see here in CNY
Posted July 21st at 8:57 PM
-
Anthony Piccione (N.Marcy):
Chris,
No problem. Check it out, I’ll have them up within a few minutes.
Posted July 21st at 9:00 PM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
Storm reports keep trickling into the SPC. There’s no doubt that this was a substantial severe outbreak in the Northeast. Probably the best we’ve seen so far this year. Locally, we could of did a little better I think. We missed out on several boundaries. Looks like another severe event in a few days!
Posted July 21st at 9:22 PM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
I counted 49 severe reports alone just in the BGM forecast area. This doesn’t include penny/nickel hail either.
Posted July 21st at 9:41 PM
-
Becky (West Leyden):
Adam, I sent some pictures of the storm at 7:30 PM down. They show some of the rotation that was occurring. I had more pictures including two of the funnel cloud. However they were too fuzzy. I had the wrong lens on the camera. (400mm, didn’t think I would be taking pictures that close….Don’t figure : (
Posted July 21st at 9:47 PM
-
Anthony (N.Marcy):
Becky,
What site/address do you send pics to? I have some I’d like to send it.
Posted July 21st at 9:50 PM
-
Becky (West Leyden):
Anthony, if you want to send them down to WKTV it’s weather@wktv.com
Posted July 21st at 9:53 PM
-
Becky (West Leyden):
Anthony, Another site I use sometimes is flickr
You can also post them on Easternuswx. Quite a few weather enthusiast use the site.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?Posted July 21st at 9:58 PM
-
Anthony (N.Marcy):
Becky,
Thanks, I emailed the pics to WKTV. I tried to signup for the Easteruswx site and it says my email address has been banned (I’ve never used the site before), so I was a little disappointed, oh well. Thanks again.
Posted July 21st at 10:59 PM
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