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Quick update.

A squall line, packing 30-50 mph winds, extremely heavy 2-4"/hour snows, whiteout conditions, thunder and lightning will blast across CNY over the next 2-3 hours. The best chance for the worst conditions will be north of Route 20. Travel is going to quickly deteriorate, so notify anyone who may be out to be prepared for this. Temperatures in some areas are still above freezing, so black ice and snow accumulation on roadways is likely as this moves through. Visibility will become a serious issue as well.

We've had reports of 60 mph gusts in Oswego County from this line of snow as well. Thunder has been reported and lightning detected as well, so don't be shocked to hear a rumble or two.

Accumulations will range from a coating to 2" as this moves through.

Lake snows will develop behind this near the Valley and then quickly lift north out of the immediate area through 2 AM.

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stevo (rome):

Ive seen one of these before. when i lived in floyd like 2 years ago. it came through between 530am and 6am. it was incredible. i hope it is as intense. the one i was in dropped like 4" of snow in like 20min.

Posted January 22nd at 9:03 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Wind gust of 46mph with the front in SYR.

Posted January 22nd at 9:18 PM
Dom-Tech:

Where that come from??

Posted January 22nd at 9:23 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Were have ground blizzard conditions. snowing very heavy at this time. Winds are 20-40 mph had one gust of 49 mph.

Posted January 22nd at 9:34 PM
stevo (rome):

snowing and blowing here in rome!!!!!!!!!!!! no lighting and thunder yet. wind is gusting abot 35mph here,and whiteout conditions. we already have about an inch. but blowing around its hard to tell.

Posted January 22nd at 9:40 PM
Karen ~ Westmoreland:

Very gusty winds and snowing here in Westmoreland...

Posted January 22nd at 9:43 PM
Matt Lanza:

Was just outside watching this thing roll in. Impressive how fast we went from light snow to heavy snow.

Posted January 22nd at 9:52 PM
Gary(Vernon Center):

Just got home.Took about 15mins to drive 5 miles.20mph tops.Very heavy snow seems to be letting up a bit now.

Posted January 22nd at 9:52 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Wow...I haven't seen it snow like this since last year.Wish we could see squalls like this more often.Visability is less than 1/4 mile.

Posted January 22nd at 9:53 PM
Gary(Vernon Center):

Almost stopped snowing completly already.Crazy upstate weather.

Posted January 22nd at 9:56 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

30.4 degrees here as of 9:50 p.m. Winds are quite breezy, but no snow yet. NWS has issued an Special Weather Statement for this line of squalls. Radar imagery looks quite impressive!

Posted January 22nd at 9:56 PM
Matt Lanza:

We're right across the street from UTR and that's now missing...snow is incredible here.

Posted January 22nd at 9:58 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Wow impressive squall line!!! LES is already right behind it.

Posted January 22nd at 10:00 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Just flurries now.I measured 3/4" in 15 minutes.

Posted January 22nd at 10:02 PM
Gina ( Trenton Falls):

At 9 tonight I starting walking the dogs...beautiful night...nice moon, able to see the deer eating in the field. By the time I got to dog 4 at 9:45...couldn't see the field.

Posted January 22nd at 10:08 PM
Becky West Leyden:

The Squall line was very impressive had several gust over 50 mph. I would estimate we have picked up 2-3 inches of snow. The LES Band is quickly moving South, it should be south of here in about 15- 20 min. It is still snowing very heavy here. And the winds are still gusting to over 30 mph.

Posted January 22nd at 10:09 PM
Matt Lanza:

Lake snows are rapidly developing behind this, but they also appear to quickly be lifting northward. Initially areas along and just north of the Thruway will receive a heavy burst of snow, before it lifts north into central and then northern Oneida County. Remember, the "whip," we had on our Microcast tonight at 5. That's what we're seeing.

Posted January 22nd at 10:14 PM
Betsi~West Leyden:

..white out conditions winds a howling,,I heard up to a foot of snow tommorrow is that true? (2 inches a hour )its more then we are expecting Dont u think,? WHERE DID 2-4 INCHES COME FROM posted,on wktv more like 8 inches so far,and when will it end ?and what should welook forward for tommorrow?

Posted January 22nd at 10:20 PM
Gordon (Northwestern):

Only 1/2 here when the line went through, but have picked up 3.3" of snow so far today. I was snowmobiling on Tug hill today, about 6" had fallen by 6PM just Northwest of C-ville.

Posted January 22nd at 10:21 PM
Becky ( West Leyden):

I had to measure in quite a few spots for a snow amount. I would estimate we picked up 4 inches of snow from the squall line and lake effect behind it. That brings are total for the day to around 7.5 inches.

Posted January 22nd at 10:27 PM
Matt Lanza:

Based on the latest radar trends, I've altered tonight's snowfall forecast a bit. Click here to view it.

Posted January 22nd at 10:37 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Conditions in West Leyden have lightened up considerably. The Band is now south of here

Posted January 22nd at 10:39 PM
Betsi West ~Leyden:

~Hows it looking for tommorrow up north?

Posted January 22nd at 10:40 PM
Matt Lanza:

Betsi: The snowfall map for tomorrow is linked in the other blog entry and is in the discussion on wktv.com. Here's the link again.

Posted January 22nd at 10:42 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

The word "whip" is the for sure thing to use.Canadian radar is showing even SSW winds behind the front.

Posted January 22nd at 10:49 PM
Bob ( Cooperstown):

Snow started here about 15 minutes ago visibilities about 100 feet
whipping wind about 1 1/2" on the ground.The snow is starting to lighten up now.

Posted January 22nd at 11:07 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Just got into the lake band...heavy snow with 1/2 mile visability.

Posted January 22nd at 11:14 PM
Matt (HP):

I apologize for being off topic but I want to take a second to say something about Heath Ledger. This Is a quote I took from the trivia part of IMDB.com on "The Dark Knight" I just thought it was an interesting thing to share with people who have certain opinions.

"The Joker's character is based on his first two appearances in the comic books, as well as his portrayal in the graphic novel "The Killing Joke." To prepare for the role, Heath Ledger lived alone in a hotel room for a month researching the character and developing his performance, which he claims is based upon Sid Vicious and the character of Alex in A Clockwork Orange (1971). Ledger found the role extremely difficult, and suffered insomnia as a result."

Posted January 22nd at 11:17 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

27 degrees here. Picked up 0.50" inch of snow from the snow squall. Heavy snow lasted about 10 minutes with visibility less than 100 feet. What was intersting was once the line of snow reached Herkimer County it appeared to weaken rapidly on radar as the deep greens and some yellows vanished(what else is new!). This seems to happen with LES and squall lines during both winter and summer. They just fizzle out as soon as they get into the county. Pretty weird! The systems that we do good with are clippers,lows, and noreasters.

Posted January 22nd at 11:33 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Starting to get a little snow again

Posted January 23rd at 12:24 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Really not much here.Lake band is going well north.Ended up with 2.0" for the day.Snowfall rates were quite cool.Michael....Febuary...????

Posted January 23rd at 12:34 AM
Matt Lanza:

A couple of points to make about tomorrow before I head to sleep...

- 00Z Buffalo WRF model showing the southern extent of the lake snows through 7 PM tomorrow is a little different. In other words, they are further north. So I think the map I drew in comment 24 looks good. I'm a little concerned that the northern tier of Oneida misses the band by 5 miles. Looks like another day where we could go from 0 to 10" over 10 miles or less.

- Old Forge may end up outperforming if all goes according to plan. The 00Z WRF had a secondary bullseye right near the village. If this verifies, we're looking at more like 3-6" rather than 2-5...not much different, but I've seen them do well in this sort of setup.

- Potential for a "surprise" couple of inches south of Utica, courtesy of Lake Erie. It won't be a surprise, because I mentioned it on the news and in the last blog, but a lot of people may not have latched on to me saying that. Lake Erie band, as long as the wind sends it inland (thinking it will), then 1-2" or so is possible in southern Oneida (Cassville/Bridgewater/Waterville), extreme southern Herkimer (West Winfield), extreme northern Otsego (Richfield Springs), most of Madison and northern Chenango (Sherburne). This will likely primarily occur on the upslope of hilltops, but nonetheless snow is snow, right?

- Lack of lake snows tomorrow night. A coastal storm looks to get going a little closer to the coast than initially thought. It's still far enough away to not give us anything, but what it will do is mess with the winds. Rather than a nice west or WNW flow...the coastal screws things up and shifts winds into the east. This will basically force the lake snow back over the lake and potentially set up an interesting scenario for the immediate lakeshore from Oswego County west through Monroe County. Either way, for the Mohawk Valley, I think our fun may be done until Thursday's Arctic front...and that'll be a wrap. More tomorrow.

Posted January 23rd at 1:47 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

i go to sleep for a couple hrs and look what i miss, well the band certainly did not go through here( ground is still bare).matt, thanks for ans my question on previous entry, i hope binghamton, or at least cortland county( where im skiiing friday) can get some decent powder thursady and thurs night!

Posted January 23rd at 2:12 AM
randy Vitullo:

Holland Patent received about 1/4 th of an inch from this entire scenario. What's with that? I didn't even feel any wind (no house shaking, rattling, etc.).

Posted January 23rd at 4:49 AM
Andrea (Utica) (a disgrutled snowmobiler..lol):

Are we ever going to get any significant snow in Southern Oneida/Herk Counties? At this point significant to me would be 5-6". Not real impressed with winter so far. Hoping it gets better.

Posted January 23rd at 7:48 AM
Dom-Tech:

Andrea,
Thats why I sold mine and bought a 4 Wheeler, I can use it 10 months a year.

Posted January 23rd at 8:05 AM
Brad(Oneonta):

Matt: Wait..what? Coastal storm? What are the chances and when? Gee I hope so....

Posted January 23rd at 9:31 AM
Matt Lanza:

Brad: Read, read, read. I said: "A coastal storm looks to get going a little closer to the coast than initially thought. It's still far enough away to not give us anything, but what it will do is mess with the winds." :) Trust me, if we were getting a coastal there'd be a whole entry on it.

Posted January 23rd at 9:40 AM
Andrea (Utica):

Dom i just bought mine so im thinkin thats why winter went to he// in a handbasket. Pretty sad when Atlanta gets snow and we get a dusting.

Posted January 23rd at 9:58 AM
Dom-Tech:

Andrea,
I bet if you sell it, We will start getting snow. LOL

Posted January 23rd at 10:07 AM
Matt Lanza:

Just so you guys know, Atlanta has gotten 1.4" of snow this month. We've gotten 11.3". True, it hasn't been a normal month by CNY standards, but let's not go too overboard!

Posted January 23rd at 10:17 AM
Justina (Marcy, NY WHS):

Laurel, Mississippi got 2 to 3 inches, and that's like extreme south Mississippi, outside of Hattiesburg. Places in Southwest Alabama, and other parts of Mississippi got up to 5 inches. Still doesn't compare on what we get. Especially out in Oswego...etc.

Posted January 23rd at 10:24 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

lake erie band going pretty good across cortland county and madison county, looks to be slowly sinking south. also oswego and lewis counties getting nailed right now.

Posted January 23rd at 10:50 AM
Jeff:

NWS radar lit up in that area
Also heard on the weather channel last nite that SanFrancisco may see snow, the first time in decades

Posted January 23rd at 11:00 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

i feel bad for people who live in port leyden, they are always being shadowed so bad, 10 miles west of them they are getting nailed, but almost as sure as the sunrises every day, the snow falls apart to nothing righ next to the black river, it is amazing the effect terrain can have on snowfall; sorry just had to get that out there.

Posted January 23rd at 11:16 AM
Andrea (Utica):

Matt, or anyone else, any long range guesstimates on snowfall for end of Feb or March? Is this going to be an early spring, or a repeat of last year?

Posted January 23rd at 11:22 AM
Brian Old Forge:

Just wanted to give you an update on snowfall in Old Forge on Tuesday. We got 7.25 inches. The snow is starting to fall now from les snow band.

Posted January 23rd at 11:26 AM
Matt Lanza:

Brian: Thanks! Keep us posted, as we usually don't get many reports from up there for some reason!

Andrea: I'm going to do some work on that in the next couple weeks. I'll post what I find here.

Jeff: From our perspective, you never want to hear that San Francisco is getting snow, because cold in the west often means warmer in the east. But it is certainly interesting.

Posted January 23rd at 11:48 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Mike M - you are so right! We drive to a camp up in Tupper Lake and it is always hard to believe when we drive up Route 12 from Boonville through Port Leyden to Lowville that the fields etc are so bare. Lowville is another one that is shadowed pretty bad - Barnes Corners is only around 10 -15 miles due west and claims to average over 300 inched per year! You go from bare ground in Lowville and start climbing on Route 177 and by the time you get to Barnes Corners the banks are over your car!

Posted January 23rd at 12:13 PM
Brad (Oneonta):

Matt: My apologies for the Coastal question. I misinterpreted your verbage in your post. I guess it was my desire to get some snow down here. :) Oh well, I guess I will just keep hoping and maybe someday we will be white again.

Posted January 23rd at 12:39 PM
Matt Lanza:

Looking good up at Old Forge right now!

Brad: It's alright...I understand your frustration!

Posted January 23rd at 1:01 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Nice!!! Keep it snowing in old forge need more snow for riding this weekend!!!

Posted January 23rd at 1:23 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

To me this band looks alot stronger than the weekend event.It's a little more narrow and just plain out dumping snow.Incredible snowfall rates of 7" in just 90 minutes in Redfield.That brings them to 25" so far.

Posted January 23rd at 1:57 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

mel, yea it really is amazing what a few miles and a few hundred foot rise in elevation can do. rob, this band deffinetly looks strong, and it is not having such a hard time extending inland; it looks like old forge could get in on some good snow if the wind direction stays right

Posted January 23rd at 2:57 PM
Brian Old Forge:

Very heavy snow at Old Forge. Looks like night fall just settled in. White out!!

Posted January 23rd at 3:30 PM
Matt Lanza:

Brian: Give us a final tally when you have some time! 12-18" over the last two days maybe? Not bad at all. Just what the snowmobiliers needed to see.

Posted January 23rd at 3:32 PM
Jeff:

WISH WE CAN PULL THIS BAND SOUTH TO CNY!

Posted January 23rd at 3:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

Snow forecast for this evening.

Posted January 23rd at 4:23 PM
Tory (Old Forge):

Jeff,

We will happily keep the snow band right where it is !!!

Posted January 23rd at 4:36 PM
Jeff:

Tory,
Thought you might like to share it

Posted January 23rd at 4:45 PM
Matt Lanza:

A snowfall report for the day from Old Forge would be awesome right now if possible! Thanks!

Posted January 23rd at 4:50 PM
Andy Forestport:

Matt

Any chance that band will meander down a little towards Alder Creek?

Posted January 23rd at 5:15 PM
Matt Lanza:

Andy: It might come close, but it also appears to be weakening, so I'm not sure how much this is going to drop.

Posted January 23rd at 5:20 PM
Steve (Vernon):

Just got back from Big Moose and Eagle Bay. Whiteout conditions pretty much the whole day. Would have to say Big Moose got almost 2 feet of new snow.

Posted January 23rd at 5:58 PM
Brian Old Forge:

Matt 6 inches so far today maybe more lots of settlemt. Les adds up but settles very fast. I am up a little higher in elevation, so might have a little more than town. Getting very close to 14 inches of snow from yesterday and today. Snow is starting to fall at a good clip again.

Posted January 23rd at 6:18 PM
Bob Jones:

JEFF, TURN OFF THE CAPS

Posted January 23rd at 6:23 PM
Alex (little falls):

are there any big storms in the future

Posted January 23rd at 6:28 PM
Matt Lanza:

Alex: Probably not.

Posted January 23rd at 6:29 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

The band looks to be regaining it's lake coverage, maybe some strengthening.

Posted January 23rd at 7:32 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I can't believe they havn't closed Rte 81 by now.This band hasn't moved all day is just crushing N. Oswego.Orwell must be close to 50" from this.They've been getting hit worse than Redfield

Posted January 23rd at 8:26 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: Interestingly enough, Lacona, which is right off 81, has "only" gotten 21.5" of snow so far. So it's probably not horribly bad on 81, but if you go inland 5-10 miles, I'm sure it's another world. Like you said, Orwell and North Redfield are getting pounded.

Posted January 23rd at 8:30 PM
ian (saratoga):

yesterday while snowmobiling about 10-15 miles nw of barneveld in the afternoon i saw the coolest dark cloud coming off the lake. i was coming over a ridge going se? and saw this to my right. it looked so evil but so cool! wx can be a beautifull thing! does anyone have reports of snow totals since last night around barneveld and towards westernille?

Posted January 23rd at 8:38 PM
Matt Lanza:

Game pretty much over up north now as lake snows have begun to weaken and retreat to the lakeshore.

Posted January 23rd at 9:06 PM
Matt Lanza:

Ian: No more than 1-2" from those areas. You go 20 miles north though and there's more than you would know what to do with.

Posted January 23rd at 9:10 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Looks like we're going into a boring weather pattern.I can't find one good storm on the CMC/GFS for quite awhile.The only good news is that the NAO continues to fall during February.

Posted January 23rd at 9:16 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

I'd like a LES event where I got more than 5".

Posted January 23rd at 9:21 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: Good trends with the NAO heading, at least briefly, negative. Also, the PNA briefly wants to jump positive and the AO wants to edge negative. Should this happen, might be a favorable environment for a storm around Feb 1. Not going to get much/any true cold, but we can still manufacture a storm if need be. We'll see what happens.

Posted January 23rd at 9:23 PM
Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

I just heard that Redfield got 7 inches in an hour and a half today, did that really happen?

Posted January 23rd at 10:14 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

i hope we can get a storm(snow not rain) around feb 1st, thats not too bad of a wait. matt, any thoughts on the finger LES tomorrow and tomorrow night, it doesnt look to last very long due to winds shifting sw by friday morning, but what would you expect for accumulations. ps buffalos wrf is showing some pretty intense, short lived bands.

Posted January 23rd at 10:14 PM
Dan - Elbridge/Redfield:

I'm driving up tomorrow to clear the camp roof. We're on Rte 2 between Orwell and Redfield. Have not been up since before the weekend snows. Matt, what's the best way to email you pics.

Speaking of the huge snow gradiant this weekend - I was in Hannibal Monday where they were reporting close to 30" - and from what I saw, that looked accurate. Literally less than 5 miles south of Hannibal had about 2" down.

Posted January 23rd at 10:16 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

62.91" inches of snow for the season so far as of 1/23/2008. I would estimate there to be between 6-10" inches of snow currently on the ground give or take an inch or two. Snowbanks are much higher.

Posted January 23rd at 10:57 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

It's been snowing lightly here.Looks like a weak band has developed just north of I90.

Posted January 23rd at 11:06 PM
Matt (HP):

I went up towards lowville tonight. Started snowing right outside of Port Leyden. Got as far as walker rd and it was really really coming down, I finally saw a road to bail off of 12 onto in lyons falls. Couldnt see more than 50 ft infront of you. It was pretty impressive.

Posted January 23rd at 11:49 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

2 comments; 1) latest 00z NAM out of buffalo is showing the potential for .5 inches of qpf across northern cortland, chenango and otsego couties, and southern onondaga and madison counties over the next 36 hrs, that could mean 4-8 inches for these areas with some isolated amounts up to 10 inches in favored upslope areas. 2) from about feb 1st through at least the 10th is starting(to me at least) look like it could be a rather snowy time; the cold air looks to just meet up with the storms primarily North of i-80( thats in PA) id say, putting us in the zone for perhaps a couple snowstorms during that period. as Matt and Rob stated earlier the NAO looks to be going at least slightly negative, which would be favorable for us to get coastal storms. well have to wait and see if anything comes out of this...lets hope so!!

Posted January 24th at 12:13 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

if ne body is interested i made this snow map which goes from now through friday afternoon; this is a very tough forecast, and this is my best guess as of now; if the snowbands do not develop like the models are thinking amounts could be much less, well here it is...http://image65.webshots.com/765/0/35/41/2914035410099650872xLRCNl_ph.jpg

Posted January 24th at 12:30 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

ok since im not exactly known for my conservatism when it comes to snowfall predictions, im gonna try it , maybe it will be for the better(more accurate forecast?) so plz disreguard the snow map in the previous comment and take a look at this one, thank you, i hope you all agree, at least somewhat. http://image60.webshots.com/760/8/53/11/2431853110099650872MVdVcH_ph.jpg

Posted January 24th at 12:41 AM
Matt Lanza:

Well, it looks like my February 1 storm is showing up. That's the 00Z GFS depiction of the forecast at that time. Obviously, this'd be huge. Unfortunately the ensembles are not in yet and neither would be anything else, but the 12Z ensembles did indeed show the potential for a storm. This goes hand in hand with my comment in #77 that the ingredients are there. Remember, you can have a storm without Arctic cold. So we'll see what happens.

As for the LES potential the next 36 hours? Unfortunately what I want to see...the MM5 is not loading this evening. Based on the NAM though, we're not looking at anything too significant. If I had to put something out, I would guess Tr-3", mainly south of Utica, with isolated 4-5" amounts possible if things can organize. As for FLES potential, it's there, but nothing in the next 36 hours impresses me to be honest. We'll have more tomorrow.

Posted January 24th at 1:28 AM
Matt Lanza:

Just saw the MM5 and it spits out a paltry 0.14" max south of Utica through Friday morning. Nothing to see here... But it does regenerate the LES due east of the lake on Friday...but mostly in Oswego/Jeff. County...the rich get richer.

Posted January 24th at 1:30 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, i think the next 36 hrs could get interesting for some areas across cny...as for that feb 1st storms lets hope it comes to be, we need a good general snowfall to build up the base in all of cny...then the LES can add to that all it wants ;)

Posted January 24th at 2:26 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

wow i just found a sweet mesoscale model page on NWS Albanys page, here is a link to the hi res WRF, it is pretty sweet.... http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/wrf/d03/wrf_d03.asp

Posted January 24th at 2:37 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

The GFS does have a nice storm on there.I was looking at the 00Z Euro this morning and was having a hard time reading it.It is showing a coastal low forming next Wednesday but I couldn't tell if it developed it to late.

Posted January 24th at 9:11 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Lacona ended up with 28.5" so it's probably safe to say that the Redfield area ended up with 4 foot.You would think that the spotter for Redfield would make more than 1 report.I hate when they don't update their totals.The samething happened this past weekend with the Fairhaven spotter.

Posted January 24th at 9:23 AM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: Looks like N Redfield got close to 40", while Salmon Hills in S Redfield only got 4". Talk about a gradient.

Posted January 24th at 9:36 AM
Brian Old Forge:

Matt picked up an inch since midnight. For this event I would say the area got between 12-16 inches. I'm looking out window now and it is snowing very lightly. Do you think Friday night Old Forge will see more snow?

Posted January 24th at 10:14 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

well the 12z gfs is showing 4...thats right 4 noreasters now through february 9th. according to the 12z gfs the first 2 would be close calls on rain or snow and the last two would be snow. we still have a long time before we can work out details with these potential storms...but at least the pattern looks to be favorable for noreasters/ coastal storms!!

Posted January 24th at 12:24 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, is there going to be an artic front coming through today..could there be heavy squalls associate with it?

Posted January 24th at 12:25 PM
DT:

Mike my bet is they will be lake runners.

Posted January 24th at 12:59 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: The first one will cut the lakes. THe second one is the Feb 1 storm I'm watching. The other two are not even worth mentioning, because the GFS always shows at least several nor'easters in the extended. As for the Arctic front, we're seeing it press south now (location is just north of Rome...you can see the lake snows getting swept off the Lake). It's not very well organized, so I doubt we see much to it, but it is worth watching over the next 3 hours, because you never know when one of these things just really gets going. But in my experience, if it were going to be significant, we would have seen it by now. That said, briefly heavier squalls are possible, especially in Oneida and Herkimer Counties through 4 PM. Most areas would see a dusting, but an isolated half inch or inch is possible if you get under one of the better squalls.

Posted January 24th at 1:09 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, yea there is no doubt the first one will cut through the lakes, i hope the one around the 1st is a good one for us. heavier snow showers are developing toward rochester and moving my way, like u said not much going on near utica.

Posted January 24th at 1:23 PM
mike m(binghamton):

DT, knowing our luck i would have thought that the feb 1st storm would be a lake cutter as well, however with the NAO forecast to go negative around that time it points toward a possible coastal path.

Posted January 24th at 1:25 PM
Jeff:

Matt,
Do you have any idea what the highest hourly snowfall rate ever recorded was?

Posted January 24th at 2:17 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: I'll see if I can find out. I know LES can go as much as 7-8"/hour.

Just doing the forecast, and I'm definitely interested in the Feb 1-3 timeframe even further. Euro continues to advertise an East Coast storm in this timeframe. It's got the negative NAO in place in this timeframe with a pretty healthy coastal developing in the Gulf and lifting parallel to the coast. Definitely lends some creedence to the possibilities.

Posted January 24th at 4:08 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Storm is also on all ensembles.Some warm,some cold but at least it's there.No new accumalation today here.Another report of 3 feet up in Sandy Creek.

Posted January 24th at 4:30 PM
Matt (HP):

Did I miss something? Wheres Bill Worden?

Posted January 24th at 6:25 PM
matt (HP):

Never mind......, On the other hand ....did he have like an extreme extended vacation a couple weeks ago.

Posted January 24th at 6:28 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: He was battling a nasty case of laryngitis for a little while. He's back to business now though!

Posted January 24th at 6:43 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Hey Matt, took a look at the long range GFS. What in the heck is that huge low in Canada???? That thing looks like a monster in the 158-180 range. Other lows just seem to be spinning around it. Looks like one of those monster lows you would see in the Aleutian Bay area of the Northwest.

Posted January 24th at 7:38 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: That would be a Polar vortex I think...it just sits and spins and ushers in shots of cold. It's cool how it works!

New entry is up!

Posted January 24th at 9:01 PM

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