Thunder Potential on Monday AM

Posted August 15th, 2010 by Jill Reale. 49 comments

 

Our first batch of rain has moved to the east tonight, with another round of rain moving in tonight into Monday morning as a cold front moves through. This cold front is back across the Ohio Valley, where there have been reports of damaging wind and hail. It looks like we will be missing out on severe weather tonight into tomorrow for several reasons. In order to get thunderstorms to develop, you need moisture, unstable air and some sort of lifting mechanism. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, we clearly have moisture. The cold front will be the lifting mechanism but what about unstable air? When we reference instability or unstable air, we mean warm air that rises rapidly. The greater the instability, the greater the chance for severe weather. When an air parcel rises when the atmosphere is saturated, it rises 5.4°F/ 1,000 ft. It usually remains warmer than the surrounding air, thus it would be less dense and would continue to rise. It would continue to rise until it is no longer warmer than the surrounding air. This is how thunderstorms develop. On a very unstable day, air can rise to 50,000 feet or higher, creating monster thunderstorms. The problem with tonight and tomorrow morning is that we will not have much in the way of instability due to the timing of the front (early morning) and the lack of daytime heating. Areas to our east (eastern NY, New England and Mid Atlantic) will have a better chance for severe weather since the front will not be passing until the afternoon.
 
On another note, continuing Bill’s discussion on the rest of hurricane season, I found some interesting facts (thanks to Matt Lanza). Of the 11 seasons (excluding 2005) that were hyperactive, 7 of them didn't see the "D" storm until 8/14 or later, and of all 11 seasons, the average date of the "D" storm was 8/16 so...expect it to get quite busy here in the coming days.s or so.

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  1. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    One strong storm out to the west early this morning, near Auburn as I write this. Today’s cold front will carry these storms through Central New York this mroning, with the potential for a few strong storms.

    Posted August 16th at 5:46 AM

  2. Becky (West Leyden):

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

    Areas Affected: Herkimer; Jefferson; Lewis; Oneida; Oswego; St. Lawrence

    Alert:
    ...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

    • AT 527 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

    LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.
    THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST
    OF INDIAN RIVER TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF INDIAN RIVER TO
    HIGHMARKET...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
    MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!
    THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND
    COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

    Posted August 16th at 5:48 AM

  3. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL 1PM THIS AFTERNOON

    Posted August 16th at 5:49 AM

  4. Becky (West Leyden):

    The area is also under a severe thunderstorm watch.

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 618
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    545 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT
    FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

    NYC001-003-007-011-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-041-043-045-
    049-051-053-057-065-067-069-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-099-
    101-107-109-113-115-117-123-161700-
    /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0618.100816T0945Z-100816T1700Z/

    NY
    . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

    ALBANY ALLEGANY BROOME
    CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO
    CLINTON CORTLAND DELAWARE
    ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON
    HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON
    LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON
    MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA
    ONTARIO OSWEGO OTSEGO
    RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY
    SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA
    ST. LAWRENCE STEUBEN TIOGA
    TOMPKINS WARREN WASHINGTON
    WAYNE YATES
    $$

    Posted August 16th at 5:50 AM

  5. Becky (West Leyden):

    Severe thunderstorm will soon be moving into southern Oneida County

    Posted August 16th at 6:00 AM

  6. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MADISON COUNTY/EXREME W ONEIDA UNTIL 7AM

    Posted August 16th at 6:27 AM

  7. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Radar continues to flag 1”+ size hail in some of these WNY storms…they are weaking a tad as they head east though.

    Posted August 16th at 6:28 AM

  8. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Quite a bit of lightning with these storms…especially south of the thruway. LI’s are -5 right out ahead of the front. Pretty rare for so early in the morning. Just starting to hear thunder in the distance.

    Posted August 16th at 7:13 AM

  9. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Warning just issued for the Utica area. Doesn’t look too terrible though.

    Posted August 16th at 7:35 AM

  10. Rob (Whitesboro):

    The cell looks like its developing a hail core now. 1.5” on NEXRAD.

    Posted August 16th at 7:41 AM

  11. Kenny (South utica):

    going to be a noisy storm…..thunder in almost nonstop so far and its not even here yet…..just saw some nice cloud to ground lightening too.

    Posted August 16th at 7:49 AM

  12. jessie :

    Just wondering if anyone can let me know when the the storm will be here I can hear thunder in the distance right now hoping its not bad

    Posted August 16th at 8:03 AM

  13. lol:

    It“ll be there soon enough ,Just hold tight and u will see..

    Posted August 16th at 8:08 AM

  14. Working in Ilion:

    Getting VERY dark here in Ilion. Hearing thunder as well. Winds are beginning to pick up. Very heavy rains just started to fall. VERY GUST WINDS

    Posted August 16th at 8:08 AM

  15. jsssie :

    Well the thunder has begun here along with the rain it is very dark towards utica way the winds were going for a few minutes but not so bad right now waiting on the worst of the storm now

    Posted August 16th at 8:19 AM

  16. Working in Ilion:

    That was a doozy! No hail. Lots of winds. Winds were probably 20 – 30 mph with very few gusts over that. Rain was wicked.

    Posted August 16th at 8:20 AM

  17. Litchfield (Rasbach rd):

    we had alot of wind and hail,i took a picture of the hail if anyone would care to see it..just tell me where to send it…

    Posted August 16th at 8:21 AM

  18. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Litchfield,

    weather@wktv.com

    Posted August 16th at 8:22 AM

  19. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Worst of the weather continues to move down the Mohawk Valley. Reports of trees down in Oriskany Falls, along with Quarter sized hail in Sauquoit.

    Posted August 16th at 8:23 AM

  20. Justin (Utica):

    is utica out of the clear now? We got nothing but a nice gust of heavey rain. and some distant thunder/lighting

    Posted August 16th at 8:26 AM

  21. Gordon (Northwestern):

    As usual we miss the good Thunder storms up by me. Just some light rain up here. Had .42” of rain yesterday Real tight temp. swing yesterday, with the high being 67.5 degrees, and the low being 65 .7 degrees. Thats less then a 2 degree spread for the whole day.

    Posted August 16th at 8:30 AM

  22. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    We just got more heavy rain here but it has let up now. Heavy rain again now. My daughter calls it round 3.
    our rain gage is reading .9 of an inch and it was empty before the rain.
    I don’t know where the trees are down. I haven’t been to town yet.

    Posted August 16th at 8:33 AM

  23. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Trees down in Verona & Clinton

    Posted August 16th at 8:36 AM

  24. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Lost power for an hour here from a few close strikes. No hail here. Winds maxed at 31mph.

    Posted August 16th at 9:01 AM

  25. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    It looks like the rain has passed by here now.
    Our Rain Gage says exactly 1 inch. Just like the water was poured in it by a water pitcher.
    I can however here it thunder and is sounds like down Clinton way.

    Posted August 16th at 9:11 AM

  26. Meg in Herkimer:

    It’s died down here to a sprinkle, but I don’t expect it to stay down — still have rumbles of thunder, and when it died down 20 minutes ago, it suddenly got dark and rained heavily again. Pretty gusty and windy with dark, foreboding clouds. Fun to watch on a day off.

    Posted August 16th at 9:22 AM

  27. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like the front is still to our west. Maybe we can sneak another round in. Still have some decent instability and winds aloft. The dew here has been flirting with 70.

    Posted August 16th at 9:48 AM

  28. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Storms have exploded south of the thruway. Already look close to severe levels. Getting dark here as well.

    Posted August 16th at 10:03 AM

  29. Rob (Whitesboro):

    No thunder with the cell here…just very heavy rain.

    Posted August 16th at 10:10 AM

  30. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    My apologies to those here who use my site too.

    The NWS is going through some growing pains on how the issue alerts and it’s effected my site. Sorry about that.

    Posted August 16th at 10:19 AM

  31. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Secondary line now developing along the actual cold front. Mainly heavy rain and some thunder with this one. It shouldn’t turn severe, but we’ll have to keep an eye on the southern end.

    Posted August 16th at 10:30 AM

  32. fairfield:

    .39” of rain from first storm earlier this am. and now .12”

    Posted August 16th at 10:49 AM

  33. Frankfort:

    Pea size hail and heavy rain in Frankfort

    Posted August 16th at 11:08 AM

  34. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Did anyone get a measurment of the wind in Sauquoit? It looked like it had to be an 80mph storm. Those were some big trees!

    Posted August 16th at 12:29 PM

  35. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Oneonta got hit hard too. Reports of numerous tress down in that area.

    Posted August 16th at 12:39 PM

  36. Laurens :

    Had came thru terriable down here, winds picked up so bad ,,,bent trees over like lil twigs ground to ground lighting kept going one strike after another,,,lasted a good 20 minutes had a repeat of it again but didnt last long,,, No damage at all,sunshine now and warmed up to 74*.....love this day ,,,,,Any more threats??or storms????????.

    Posted August 16th at 12:56 PM

  37. Laurnes:

    Headed to ONEONTA will send a report and pics..

    Posted August 16th at 12:57 PM

  38. Kelly (Cooperstown):

    I know this is a long shot but can anyone tell me when we will see three day window period of nice sunny days?? Husband wants to hay and asked me what’s the next couple of days going to be like. I told him were still under watch till 9 PM Am I wrong? I read you guys faithfully. Thanks a bunch!

    Posted August 16th at 1:42 PM

  39. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Kelly,

    All watches have been dropped. We are going to see partly to mostly sunny for Tues-Thurs afternoon this week.

    Posted August 16th at 3:51 PM

  40. JmD (Fonda):

    Looks like the front has finally made it here…dewpoint dropped from 72 to 65 in the last hour and a half! Nice…and for the next few days, as well.

    Posted August 16th at 4:39 PM

  41. Laurens:

    EARLIER went thru WEST ONEONTA trees were all over looked like something went thru there which was huge to knock the trees down one house after another ,,roads were closed had to go around long way ,,,in city of Oneonta was very warm blue skies and looked like a pefect summers day…which was less than a quarter mile from all the damage

    Posted August 16th at 8:39 PM

  42. Laurens:

    EARLIER went thru WEST ONEONTA trees were all over looked like something went thru there which was huge to knock the trees down one house after another ,,roads were closed had to go around long way ,,,in city of Oneonta was very warm blue skies and looked like a pefect summers day…which was less than a quarter mile from all the damage

    Posted August 16th at 8:40 PM

  43. CJ:

    Is the weekend looking to be a washout? I have an outdoor party planned on Saturday with camping into Sunday and am keeping my fingers crossed that it’s not a complete washout!

    Posted August 17th at 11:17 AM

  44. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    CJ,

    Our forecast models advertise wet weather for the weekend. A slow moving area of low pressure will bring a period of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So long as it doesn’t rain all day, we should at least see upper 70s/low 80s.

    Posted August 17th at 11:59 AM

  45. Becky (West Leyden):

    Yeah, enjoy the High pressure it will be in command until Friday. Because we should see some showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. There should be isolated showers Sunday as well.

    Bill, looks like we will have rain to ours west and south Wednesday . The system moving up from the south looks to be fairly dynamic. How far north do you think the rain will be, any chance it impacts the Extreme southern tier?

    Posted August 17th at 12:25 PM

  46. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Becky,

    The rain shield should stay to our south, but a shortwave to the west may bring us a few sprinkles this afternoon. Clouds will be with us through most of the day today.

    Posted August 18th at 5:27 AM

  47. Becky (West Leyden):

    Thanks Bill

    Looks like SE of the valley could see scattered showers tomorrow and Saturday is looking nowhere near as wet as it did.

    Posted August 18th at 12:08 PM

  48. HMMMMM:

    It seems WEIRD that this is a weather blog ,and it hasnt been cleared,,,or updated ,,,why?

    Posted August 19th at 3:03 PM

  49. HMMMMM:

    Just kidding. Sorry for being a stick.

    Posted August 20th at 12:29 PM

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