Things to watch over the next few days...

Posted February 3rd, 2010 by Bill Kardas. 61 comments

Light snow expected to continue here this afternoon.  We picked up about three quarters of an inch so far out of this event as of 10am this morning.  More light snows will persist as we head into the day as a very weak disturbance slides by.  The lakes will spray some flurries and light snow showers across the area today and tonight. 

High pressure builds in tomorrow and Friday, with dry weather and perhaps some sunshine.  We're slowly getting further away from our climatological cloudiest part of the year (November/December/January).  We're also getting a few minutes more of sunshine each day as well....

The next snow maker will develop south yet again on Friday.  The center of the storm is expected to miss the area to the south.  We've seen this trend for most of the winter.  What's interesting about this storm, unlike all the other storms this winter, is that it has been trending north on our computer models.  While we still believe CNY will miss out on any big snows, the storm may produce a few flakes in spots.  

To give you a better idea behind what we just mentioned, here's a look at the 00z GFS ensemble models (ewall) for Saturday afternoon.  As mentioned before, we look at this to get a feel for all the potential scenarios a storm may produce.  Only 5 of the 12 are clearly missing Central New York.  The rest either give us a glancing light snow, with one of the outliers giving some parts of our viewing area a few inches (a 1 in 12 chance).  Even in the snowiest scenario, it's only a glancing shot of snow.

This is one model, looking out 84 hours into the future.  The new 12z NAM model coming in shows a good snowstorm for Pennsylvania, with the snows missing NYS completely.  The next few model runs will give us more clues as to whether this northern trend will continue or if this will be yet another "out to sea" event for CNY.

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  1. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Although I am a big snow lover, it’s getting to the point where I don’t care if we get a big storm. I’m already looking forward to spring, no shoveling, warmer weather, golf and lower heating bills.

    Posted February 3rd at 11:23 AM

  2. Rob (Whitesboro):

    The NAM model is insane. It’s showing a 20-30” storm for alot of the Mid-Atlantic. This looks pretty similiar to the December storm. Picked up another 0.8” last night here.

    Posted February 3rd at 11:58 AM

  3. Mrboom:

    This is crazy we have missed Every storm this year.. 2 most common things said in the blog are “out To Sea” and “to the south of us”, this weather pattern has held for 2 months now .. whats causing this and how/when will it break

    Posted February 3rd at 12:10 PM

  4. randy Vitullo :

    Don’t forget “Western Runner”. That is the most dreaded of all. Rain maker…...

    Posted February 3rd at 1:00 PM

  5. Adam Musyt:

    The next one does indeed look to be a doozy for the Mid-Atlantic.

    URGENTWINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
    245 PM EST WED FEB 3 2010

    DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-501-502-VAZ028-030-031-040-042-
    050>054-501-502-WVZ050>053-503-504-040345-
    /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.100205T1500Z-100207T0300Z/
    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
    NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
    PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
    CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-
    RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
    PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
    ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
    SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
    WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
    WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
    FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...
    CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
    FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...
    EMORYVILLE...HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
    245 PM EST WED FEB 3 2010

    ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
    SATURDAY EVENING...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
    WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
    THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

    • PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

    • ACCUMULATIONS...THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE 12 OR MORE
    INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 20 INCHES.

    • TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MORNING
    FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

    • TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FRIDAY. FRIDAY
    NIGHT AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES.

    • WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING
    NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH SATURDAY.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIMILAR TO THE DECEMBER 19TH STORM.
    PLAN FOR SUBSTANTIAL DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
    WEEKEND.

    Posted February 3rd at 3:18 PM

  6. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Latest NAM trends the storm further north….waiting on the latest GFS!

    Posted February 3rd at 4:45 PM

  7. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Also the 12z JMA model shows cny in the gun for a moderate snowfall…who knows if this is accurate!

    Posted February 3rd at 4:52 PM

  8. Justin (Whitesboro):

    GFS=Out to Sea :(

    Posted February 3rd at 5:06 PM

  9. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    Justin i dont think thats a good model lol Well i knw for a fact it way overdoes QPF..I also think it has a really warm bias.. Well lucky im from nj and have plenty of friends down there, because im gonna head out to south jersey to catch the action..I hope they get a nice 2 foot event lol

    Posted February 3rd at 6:06 PM

  10. kelly:

    So were not going to get nuttin again:(

    Posted February 3rd at 6:25 PM

  11. fairfield:

    it’s time to do a snow dance around my snowman, who’s with me!

    Posted February 3rd at 6:49 PM

  12. Justin (Whitesboro):

    This winter has been boring…I have a 10k snowmobile just sitting now for 4 weeks, even the north country does not have much except isolated areas on the tug and everybody and their grandmother rides there! wktv bring us snow!!

    Posted February 3rd at 6:54 PM

  13. Rob (Whitesboro):

    We’ll see what the 00Z models say. The NAM and Euro are quite different. Usually when they team up together there’s high confidence on a storm track. But they’re not. Looks like there’s some heavy squalls are moving into the area right now. Flurries just starting here.

    Posted February 3rd at 7:17 PM

  14. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Light fluffy snow falling here now!

    Posted February 3rd at 7:59 PM

  15. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Moderate snow falling now. Huge flakes.

    Posted February 3rd at 7:59 PM

  16. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Just picked up more snow in the last hour than I have in the last 2 weeks combined. lol

    Posted February 3rd at 8:08 PM

  17. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    It has been snowing steady for the last hour and is just starting to pick up more.

    Posted February 3rd at 8:37 PM

  18. Adam Musyt:

    Thanks for the reports, guys. Another quarter inch of snow has fallen in the past hour or so here at the station.

    It still looks like the lake effect flare up should weaken and push a bit to the southwest overnight.

    Posted February 3rd at 8:44 PM

  19. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I have 1.1” here so far. Still snowing moderately.

    Posted February 3rd at 8:56 PM

  20. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    Snowing moderately here.. Picked up and inch of fluffy snow.. large flakes looks pretty.. The strom down south lookin like a big one.. maybe we can catch the fringe affects from this and maybe lake effect when it goes by?

    Posted February 3rd at 9:24 PM

  21. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    oops that should have been storm.

    Posted February 3rd at 9:25 PM

  22. Adam Musyt:

    3/4 of an inch with a steady light snow continuing.

    Posted February 3rd at 9:42 PM

  23. Adam Musyt:

    Lake effect has increased a bit to the west around Rochester and the showers have been a bit more persistent than the models have shown.

    We’re upping snowfall totals a bit for the overnight. Watch out for some slick roadways. The steadiest snows should be across Southern Oneida and Madison Counties.

    Updated snowfall forecast map through the night

    Posted February 3rd at 10:04 PM

  24. Mrboom:

    Um, adam re: post #3 … how do we get outa this rut… we should be getting all these storms ..but we are not .. its like living on the sun minus the warth, what has to happen for us to get outa this.

    Posted February 3rd at 10:36 PM

  25. Adam Musyt:

    24,

    We need a blocking pattern in Greenland to prevent the “escape” of storms out to sea before they arc upward on the Atlantic Coast. Also, it would help to see slightly less intense Canadian high pressure ridges. They have been intense enough to supply cold air all the way down to Central Virginia – while keeping our region bone dry.

    Posted February 3rd at 10:59 PM

  26. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Picked up an even 2.0” here this evening. Just flurries now.

    Posted February 3rd at 11:08 PM

  27. Adam Musyt:

    1.5” here. Much lighter flurries falling now.

    Posted February 3rd at 11:23 PM

  28. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    January Snow Total: 26.0 inches
    Seasonal Snow Total: 54.3 inches
    Picked up 2.2 inches tonight, still flurrying.

    Posted February 3rd at 11:38 PM

  29. Ron (Frankfort Hill):

    Just a guess when I was out loading wood in the stove but ,3 to 4 inches here,then again it’s always snowing here !!

    Posted February 4th at 12:11 AM

  30. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    1.5” inches here for the day. Most of which fell since 9p.m.

    Posted February 4th at 12:20 AM

  31. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Nice little surprise this morning with a fresh just over 3” of snow on the ground. Typical fluffy LES type snowfall.

    Posted February 4th at 5:37 AM

  32. Matt (CB):

    Picked up just over 1 inch last night.It’s 9 degrees under clear skies.Bring on spring.

    Posted February 4th at 6:19 AM

  33. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    We got 2.4” of fluff snow during the night.

    I notice our low temp was +9* sometime after midnight.

    Posted February 4th at 9:39 AM

  34. randy Vitullo :

    WKTV Crew, any thoughts on the storm for next Wednesday or Thursday? It appears that it might be a glancing blow for us on the ensembles. What are your thoughts?

    Posted February 4th at 9:50 AM

  35. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    All the new data since yesterday has kept this storm to the south. We’ll likely not even see a flake from the storm itself. The southern trend continues.

    Randy,
    It’s too far away to say for sure, but the forecast models draw in two storms, with the main one pushing well south of the area…yet again. Looks like yet another week of winter without a big storm.

    Posted February 4th at 11:50 AM

  36. Becky (West Leyden):

    I picked up a little snow Overnight around 1/2 of an inch on the 2nd and another 3/8 of an inch last night before it shut off around 12:00 AM

    Posted February 4th at 12:38 PM

  37. Rob (Whitesboro):

    That February sun is getting strong. It’s getting to the time of year when if you get a few inches, you might as well just leave it. The Euro did a nice job on this storm, besides its Day 7 track over BGM. I hate to be a spectator, but this is going to be a fun storm to watch. I’m guesing 25” at Reagan for the storm.

    Posted February 4th at 1:36 PM

  38. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Next Wed could be our next potential steady snow in awhile, hope it pans out as noaa says in there text forecast!

    Posted February 4th at 6:01 PM

  39. Brick Tamland:

    Justin, hope they are correct. We have the cold weather in place but no moisture to work wit. We need to capitalize on the cold air while it is still here and we haven’t done so. I put 40 miles on my snowmobile so far this year.

    Posted February 4th at 6:16 PM

  40. randy Vitullo :

    Cold air has been in place, for the most part, since 6 December. Snow fall has been dismal. We are just one heavy rain day away from losing the last of the base. That one rain day, with warmth, is just two to three weeks away. If we don’t get a snowstorm, winter pastimes are toast at that point. If we get the storm, the one rainy warm day will not destroy winter activities. We would be granted a couple of more weeks of fun on the snow. Keep our fingers crossed…..........

    Posted February 4th at 9:09 PM

  41. randy Vitullo :

    Brick, I use my 2008 Polaris for pulling ski grooming equipment on our cross country ski trail system in Holland Patent. The system has approximately 18 miles of trails (not all on my property). I know every inch of those trails and have spent about 30 hours grooming at about 10 miles an hour. That would be about 300 + miles; mostly at night. If I didn’t know the trails, I would have about the same miles on my sled as you. I feel your pain…...

    Posted February 4th at 9:15 PM

  42. randy Vitullo :

    In a typical year, 600 to 900 miles of grooming would be the norm. ONE THING about this winter is the amount of time saved from not having to groom, but still having great ski conditions.. I still want a snow storm.

    Posted February 4th at 9:18 PM

  43. brian(edmeston cntr) (Edmeston):

    I absolutely love the snowmobilers vying for good conditions on this blog. My motivation is (and has been in previous years) a little more modest.

    As I have mentioned in the past – I maintain a backyard icerink. Cold is KING.

    So, WKTV, besides hearing about snow(which I like to hear for my ski routines) keep reporting the below 32 score. I love it!

    We love it!

    Posted February 4th at 11:05 PM

  44. brian(edmeston cntr) (Edmeston):

    BTW- am planning my 2nd ever ski day out this weekend (my OWN life has been mostly VT, NH and MAINE) with the kids.

    Was thinking Plateskill on Sunday when everyone is fooling themselves with the Superbowl. With this weekends weatherforecast is that a good bet?

    Posted February 4th at 11:09 PM

  45. brian(edmeston cntr) (Edmeston):

    PS… Randy… hear you about the levels this year…....

    Was hoping the new models I just read benefitted us all…...

    Posted February 4th at 11:14 PM

  46. Justin (Whitesboro):

    I think we are in line for some snow next week! Either it will be light or heavy it is still something, sick of this boring pattern :(

    Posted February 4th at 11:18 PM

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