The Thaw Continues

Posted January 9th, 2013 by Adam Musyt. 44 comments

Today has been a day of extremes across CNY.  We started the day with clear skies and a calm wind.  Thanks to those two ingredients combined with a still prominent snow cover, our temperature dipped to a cool 14 degrees to start the day.  As a southerly breeze took over ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, temperatures spiked into the 40's for (most of) our area, with 46 degrees being the official high at Griffiss Park in Rome.

 

Later in the evening the front, combined with some "just right" dynamics thanks to a departing upper level trough and strong low level jet, produced a brief thundershower across the North Country late in the evening.  As this combination of features exits the region through the early morning and high pressure takes hold, clearing skies and weakening winds will be the rule.

 

Thanks to the high, a good deal of sunshine is expected for Thursday with temperatures rebounding well into the 30's to near 40 degrees.  With dry air in place, temperatures will quickly cool back into the 20's Thursday evening, but cloudiness will increase by Friday morning as our next weather maker approaches from the southern states.  As the storm lifts into the Upper Midwest it will push a warm front through our area, and this will kick off a round of rain for Friday afternoon and Friday evening.  It may take until late evening, but we’ll likely approach or exceed 40 degrees.

 

Once the front lifts north of our area on Saturday, we'll find ourselves between weather systems.  Models hint at lowering humidity aloft.  With a respectable southwesterly breeze potentially allowing for mixing of the low level atmosphere, this means that there's even the *chance* we could manage a few breaks of sunshine.  Without the sun, temperatures will be well into the 40's.  Should we luck out and see a few sunny breaks then 50 degrees plus is a pretty good bet.

 

Mild air lingers into Sunday and as one more wave pushes to the west we could see more rain showers.  Longer range models hint at a cold frontal passage and gradual cool down by the middle of next week.  By then we'll have a chance to rebuild some of the snow pack that will likely have vanished in the valley and points southward.  It is still January after all.  In the meantime enjoy the "vacation from winter" for at least a few days.

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  1. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    I find it ironic that some random cold front in the winter ends up producing stronger winds at my house last night than Sandy. I thought for sure a quick drop in the temperature would take place before the front arrived (clear skies, snow pack), putting a ‘wind buffer’ in place. Well that didn’t happen, and instead we saw incredible mixing.

    Posted January 10th at 4:29 AM

  2. Denys (East Winfield):

    29 degrees, clear and breezy. The wind was howling here too last night!!

    Posted January 10th at 5:24 AM

  3. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    30 degrees here, top gust at 37mph.

    Posted January 10th at 6:10 AM

  4. sue (fairfield):

    yeah Bill, tell me about it ; / 57 for a peak gust at 2am….winds are down in the teens now….30*

    Posted January 10th at 6:35 AM

  5. Norm (Floyd, NY):

    28* here this morning.

    What wind? I slept thru it?

    Posted January 10th at 7:14 AM

  6. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    31° wind peaked at 41 mph after midnight

    Posted January 10th at 7:37 AM

  7. MG (Point Rock):

    I didn’t hear any thunder last night, but I did end up with an intersting mix of clear and white hail (graupel) pellects on my car this morning.

    Posted January 10th at 8:06 AM

  8. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    According to NOAA, the snow depth over the past 5 days has been reduced by ~50% across the majority of the area. There are exceptions – the “cold pockets” saw less reduction…about 30%. This information is based on satellite estimates.

    Posted January 10th at 8:30 AM

  9. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I drove past Oneida lake yesterday and couldn’t believe the people out there. The report is that ice is only 3 to 7” thick and that was as of Tuesday. That’s really risking it.

    Posted January 10th at 9:00 AM

  10. MG (Point Rock):

    My snowpack is 15” this morning, down from it’s peak of 20” a week ago

    Posted January 10th at 9:40 AM

  11. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Snowpack here is 7” this morning. My peak was 17.5” on Dec 29th.

    Posted January 10th at 9:55 AM

  12. Rob (Whitesboro):

    12Z NAM has the valley at 55-60 on Sunday. That should wipe things out easily.

    Posted January 10th at 10:03 AM

  13. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Today marks the 7th straight January day without measurable snowfall in CNY. The longest streak in recent memory was 11 back in January of 2008. Here are some recent years:

    2012 – 7 days in a row without measureable snow
    2011 – 2 days
    2010 – 5 days
    2009 – 2 days

    Posted January 10th at 12:12 PM

  14. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like we have a chance to tie or even break that streak this year. Next week at this time we’ll be stuck in the single digits for highs with heavy LES according to the GFS.

    Posted January 10th at 12:29 PM

  15. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    My pack here is lower than I thought. An average 4.5”. Bare spots are showing up where the snow was already low.

    Posted January 10th at 2:38 PM

  16. MG (Point Rock):

    There was no snow down there on Jan 6? I had 5” up here

    Posted January 10th at 2:46 PM

  17. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    MG: Nothing at all here

    Posted January 10th at 3:29 PM

  18. Mel (Westernville):

    Yeah we had a couple inches here last Sunday into Monday. Still 15” snowpack.

    Posted January 10th at 3:51 PM

  19. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Snowpack is at 15” here also. High today during the daylight hours was 35, I did have a high at midnight of 37.

    Posted January 10th at 5:05 PM

  20. Denys (East Winfield):

    25 degrees, overcast with a light wind.

    Posted January 11th at 5:23 AM

  21. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    22 degrees here, overcast with light wind.

    Posted January 11th at 5:35 AM

  22. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    25 degrees here this morning.

    Posted January 11th at 6:42 AM

  23. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    30* here.

    Posted January 11th at 7:08 AM

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