Weather Blog | The First Widespread ALL Snow Event of 07-08?

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Yes, it may actually be true. We have only had one bonafide snowstorm this year, which occurred in mid-December (Southern Valleys folks, you also got a storm on Dec. 13 too). This could be the second, but this may play out much like the 12/13 storm did...with heavier amounts south of Utica.

You've seen the snow map, and if not, click here for the VERY latest map. This is a tough storm. We have a few things to consider.

First off...I'll be honest...the lift..amount of rising air...that's being generated by the models is not very impressive. Based on how much precip the model was spitting out, I was expecting more "umph" in the atmosphere, but alas it's not there.

Secondly, the air mass over us is dry...very dry. We have a sprawling high pressure area nearby. This may actually delay the onset of the snow by a few hours. This would help to cut down on things, primarily from the Mohawk Valley north.

But... the models are spitting out a decent amount of precipitation. The air mass over us is cold, so snow ratios will be decent... 12-15:1 or so. Taking everything literally, I have high confidence in a widespread 2-4" from Route 20 north. And I have rather high confidence in a 4-8" snow for Otsego and Chenango, specifically in the I-88 corridor. However, that area between Cooperstown and Little Falls or Utica and Sherburne...that's where I have uncertainty.

Just keep a couple things in mind. Snow ranges are ranges, and you won't always end up on the higher end of the range. One of the challenges we face is that psychologically, 4-8" can sometimes automatically make you think 8". And if you end up with 4", you feel like it busted. It's tough.

This is very much a fluid forecast...a lot could change. Honestly though, if anything, for 11 PM (unless I see otherwise), I may be downgrading to Tr-1", 1-3" and 3-6". No guarantees, but I'll let you know in the comments.

Not much new to add on events beyond this storm. We'll worry about next week's storm tomorrow night.

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Comments

Matt HP:

No chance we will go the other way? And be higher? 3-6, 6-12?

Posted February 21st at 8:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: Not under my watch.

Posted February 21st at 8:45 PM
Dave:

I'll be driving through Utica on rt. 90 on my way to Syracuse at about 6PM. How might the roads be? Will there be heavy snowfall?

Posted February 21st at 9:08 PM
Matt HP:

Matt, Im not saying you would have missed a beat. Im saying Im wishful thinking!

Posted February 21st at 9:15 PM
Matt Lanza:

Dave: 6 PM might not be a bad time. Considering the Thruway usually starts out okay...gets bad as the storm gets bad, and then improves drastically once they get the system going...by 6 PM, you should be fine. Especially given that the lighter snows will fall back toward Syracuse and the storm will be winding down around then. Check back in for updates of course, but early estimates would be that you'll be okay.

Matt: I know. I just can't see this being much worse than what I currently am advertising.

Posted February 21st at 9:27 PM
Matt Lanza:

Latest NAM keeping the entire viewing area, including the south, under 0.50" liquid. 0.50" at 15:1 would get you 7.5" snow. So I think the 4-8" call will suffice, with it being more like 4-6", with isolated 7-8" amounts on the hilltops and traditional snow powerhouse spots south of Rt 20. Still like 2-4" for the immediate area. Only change I think I may make at 11 is to edge the 4-8" southward a bit, closer to Route 20.

Posted February 21st at 9:30 PM
Dave:

Thank you so much, makes me feel a lot better

Posted February 21st at 9:36 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

So, since the maps are putting us on the line between the 2-4/4-8 line, I figure that with how the forecast amounts this year have been off, we should actually get a trace to two inches if we're lucky. Though I'll be real surprised if we get what's actually called for. Don't mean to sound harsh, but face it our record for storms this year hasn't been that great.

Posted February 21st at 9:51 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jack: Our forecasts have been fine this year...I'm not sure if you forget the December storm...but that was really your last big storm. Lean on the 2-4", as based on radar trends and model data, I actually do think I'm going to step down to 1-3/3-6.

Posted February 21st at 10:05 PM
Matt Lanza:

New map is up. Opted against stepping down, but just shifted the 4-8" zone further south to be consistent and because I do think a lot of folks down that way will do well. I think most areas in the 4-8" zone are going to see more like 4 or 5". I honestly feel that a few areas will see 3" or so, but I'm not willing to do a 3-8" range. The 6-8" amounts are going to be very isolated and likely confined closer to the I-88 corridor and Binghamton-Elmira areas.

Posted February 21st at 10:39 PM
Matt Lanza:

Triggered the 00Z run of our in-house Microcast early...and as expected, the light snow is the story tomorrow. About 5-6" in Binghamton, but only 2" or so at Rome. Time to nowcast.

Posted February 21st at 11:24 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, 5-8" sounds good to me.

Posted February 22nd at 12:17 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

gfs still not coming around, we are on top of this event, and teh NAM and GFS still can not agree; on which should we lean?

Posted February 22nd at 12:18 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

snow has started here, we need to get more south to north movement of the hvy bands across PA.

Posted February 22nd at 1:45 AM
mike(leonardsville):

So much for this being a widespread snow event. This is more like a flurry, we'll be lucky to get 2 inches out of this.

Posted February 22nd at 7:25 AM
Jack (Clark Mills):

LOL, see my post (8).

Posted February 22nd at 7:45 AM
Tom -West Winfeild:

WOW what a storm maybe we will see an inch or two.

Posted February 22nd at 7:53 AM
Jean - Cedar Lake:

We have a dusting now, but snow is very lightly falling. Come on guys, don't be dissapointed yet - we have all day still to get our 4 inches.

Posted February 22nd at 8:05 AM
jay:

all i have to say is... forcasting weather is the only job in which you can be wrong all the time and not get fired!

Posted February 22nd at 8:28 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

LOL Hey I would love a good pounding of snow too, but don't shoot the messenger. Matt has said time and time again since yesterday that this was not going to be anything to write home about. The snow has just begun and you all want to say bad things about him?? He is the one that said that the dynamics and qpf were weak. Way to go Matt- you got it right again!! Its amazing how you have been right so much this year with your nowcasting. Even when the models have been so off (GFS and NAM definately didnt agree this time).

OK when was the last time Utica didn't go over 8" in one storm for the whole winter, and was it a Nina Winter?

Posted February 22nd at 8:51 AM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: Let me get back to you on that. I believe we have a record of 6"+ storms somewhere at work, and I should be able to get some answers from that.

And to those of you who think this storm was a bust: It must be nice to ridicule when you're not doing the job. First of all, I said on-air that the heaviest snow would fall between late morning and late afternoon. I love when people call off the dogs before things even start.

Jay: Please offer me proof where we've been wrong "all the time."

Getting ridiculed for being wrong is part of the job, but for crying out loud, at least wait until the storm even really starts before you jump all over us. We've got all day. Come talk to me after 6 PM when everything is done...and if we were wrong, we were wrong.

Posted February 22nd at 9:42 AM
Barb:

Way to tell them Matt! Keep up the great work!

Posted February 22nd at 9:47 AM
Matt:

I think some times these people wouldn't have anything to do if it wasn't find fault with everyone.

Posted February 22nd at 9:57 AM
Matt Lanza:

Barb: Thanks...I'm not going to pretend that we nailed it if it doesn't pan out (I honestly don't think we're going to get more than 4" anywhere based on radar right now), but you have to be kidding me that anyone could call an event a "bust," before it even really starts.

Posted February 22nd at 9:59 AM
JmD-Fonda:

GREAT job as usual to Matt+company...I knew you would nail it as ALWAYS! Another couple quick questions, and I apologize in advance if this has been asked and answered before: why does the NWS always refer to 850mb? What so special about that for winds and or pressure indicies, and secondly about the formation of the infamous "dry slot" that appears quite often; I'm guessing this is caused by Appalachians topography???? If not, I'd appreciate a brief explanation.

Posted February 22nd at 10:13 AM
randy Vitullo:

Jay, the storm is just starting. Two to four inches is the forecast for the entire storm. We have already picked up about an inch and we have another 4 hours of snow to come.

Posted February 22nd at 10:16 AM
Matt Lanza:

JmD: In meteorology, there are a couple standard pressure levels. 850 mb, 700 mb, 500 mb, and jet stream level. I believe 850 mb is about 5,000 feet, 700 is 12K' and 500 is 18K'. 850 is important for several reasons. We can analyze it to determine where warm air is coming from and strong the warmth is. There are mathematical formulas we use to forecast high temps that involve the 850 mb temperature. The 850 mb winds are what is called the "low level jet," which can play a role in heavy precipitation, surface winds, etc. So it's extremely important.

As for the dry slot. It actually doesn't have to do with the Appalachians entirely. You can get a downsloping wind off the Catskills, which can create a dry wedge south of our area, which could eventually impact us. But, the dry slot is typically caused when you have a low pressure system over land (primary low) transferring energy to a nor'easter or coastal/secondary low. The primary storm will last too long...and begin to weaken near us...give us a dose of light snow and then as the coastal takes over...in between forms a dry slot...and often that can end up near or over us. We'll see somewhat of a similar situation to that today.

Posted February 22nd at 10:27 AM
Matt Lanza:

You can also get a dry slot depending on the track of a solid storm, where you have moisture out ahead of it and a front comes through, but there is a gap between that moisture and the moisture around the center of the storm. That will be Tuesday/Wednesday's case.

Posted February 22nd at 10:30 AM
Matt Lanza:

I feel a bit better looking at radar. Precip has consolidated a bit and is bringing heavier snows south of I-90 and even some modest snow along and north of there. Looks like the 2-4" still has a good shot of at least hitting 2". 4-6" may be tough still.

Posted February 22nd at 10:59 AM
Alicia (Sauquoit):

I just wanted to say great job to the WKTV meterologists! They do a wonderful job, and I never remember our forcasts being so accurate as they've been over the past year/year and a half! They do an excellent job of keeping up to date on what's going on and if any modifications need to be put in order. I have lived in Central NY my entire life, and I realized by the time I was 12 that it can be sunny out in one area, and then a mile down the road have it be a complete white out. That's the way weather works! It can be unpredictable, and even the most skilled and educated people can make mistakes, we are not GOD. I took a few meterological classes while I attended SUNY Oneonta, and it's a difficult job to do! I love weather, and I love researching and learning this stuff as a hobby, but I could not do this on a day to day basis. I give all the credit in the world to Matt, Bill, Adam, and Jill for what a fine job they all do!!!

Posted February 22nd at 11:06 AM
Ken - S. Utica (Hillcrest Manor):

snowing lightly here all mornng...have a few bursts of moderate snow as well...ran to the store and the roads in the city are getting a bit greasy, it is nice to see all snow though and not ice and rain.

Posted February 22nd at 11:11 AM
Matt (CB):

The weather team here does a great job.

We have picked up another 1.5 inches and temp has climbed to 22.WHEN IS THE SNOW GONNA STOP??????

Matt L You and your team are very good at what you do.Keep up the great work.

Posted February 22nd at 11:12 AM
ken:

matt,i know you are concentrating on this storm first but any early indications on next weeks storm?what are the newest models saying?let me guess a mix bag of precipitation.lol.and by the way there is no one even close to being as on target with the forcasts than wktv.amazing job!

Posted February 22nd at 11:14 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, what is up with the hole in teh precip, just SW of me? it does appear like the precip will fill in from about Elmira east later this afternoon and probably be heavy across most of Central NY along and south of route 20, and at times as far north as rome. your forecast numbers look good to me. goin skiing now at greek peak, should be nice!!!

Posted February 22nd at 11:22 AM
Matt Lanza:

Ken: Model trends are for a slightly further south, more intense solution. Rather than the storm tracking up the St. Lawrence, it now tracks across the Southern Tier on average. This is good news. The latest GFS implies mostly snow, some ice and probably no rain. I will likely keep the mix forecast, as it's too early to say anything with certainty, but this continues to show signs of a.) being a big storm and b.) allowing for winter's last hurrah to get ushered in for March.

Posted February 22nd at 11:27 AM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: The hole just appears to be dry air entrained between meso-bands. I know the terrain near State College isn't much different than elswhere, so I would rule out downsloping. Just some dry air.

Posted February 22nd at 11:29 AM
Scott (Westmoreland):

Matt, right or wrong, no one can fault you for your effort. How many other meterologists put this much time into spreading their forecast and weather information out to the public? You preface every forecast with the possible pitfalls and reasons it may not pan out. To me, that makes your forecast accurate even when snowfall levels don't pan out.

It's not like you are throwing out totals without supporting data and then not explaining what caused them to fall short. Those who are complaing are likely only looking at the snow maps and not reading your other posts, because to me, those tell the story. The map is just a guideline.

Posted February 22nd at 11:42 AM
Mike (Herkimer):

Just started reading the blog a couple of weeks ago - really enjoying it. Starting to pick up on a few things from Matt and the rest of you "weather knowledgeable" folks. Thanks

Posted February 22nd at 11:44 AM
Amanda:

Matt, I hope your wrong. It's about that time of the year where cabin fever is setting in. I am over the snow and the cold. Bring on spring and the sunshine.

Posted February 22nd at 11:45 AM
Matt Lanza:

Amanda: I'm totally with you on that, but...I just don't see us escaping March unscathed right now. We'll see!

Scott/Mike: Thanks! Glad we can help out a bit. :)

Posted February 22nd at 11:50 AM
Matt H (Mount Upton):

Been snowing heavily here for maybe an hour. Visibility less than 1000 feet. Picked up about a quarter inch by day break and since have picked up about 2" Route 8 very slick but DOT is out doing their thing. Pray for some snow next week. I would like to salvage a bit of what winter has left. But there is still a lot that can happen before spring!

Posted February 22nd at 12:15 PM
John in Cold Brook:

This is for Matt is Cold Brook. We are all free to express our opinions. If you don't like it, tough. I do happen to heat with wood (i use oil as a primary heat source) and own a NEW Modular house.

Posted February 22nd at 12:37 PM
Matt Lanza:

Keep it cool folks. We don't want to have to ban people for unnecessary reasons. I have edited comments from the Cold Brook duo to make them more suitable for everyone's viewing (and to prevent things from getting out of control).

Posted February 22nd at 12:43 PM
Barb (LC):

Matt...thank you...I don't understand why people have to swear to get their point across...when did it become socially acceptable?? It is snowing pretty good here...husband is out with the snowblower..probably and inch or two for today...I expect if it keeps up like this another few on top of it.

Posted February 22nd at 12:48 PM
John (New Hartford):

Awwww, come on Matt, let us see what they said too. Its really boring at work today I could use the laugh. :) Commercial Dr and Oriskany Blvd very slippery so use caution.

Posted February 22nd at 1:19 PM
MJ (trenton):

Looks like fairly decent radar returns N. Oneida - S. Lewis. (probably due to all those country folk burning wood)
Seriously, maybe we can come away from this system on the upper end of forecast, 3"-4" seems possible.

Posted February 22nd at 1:26 PM
Lisa:

When does it look like the snow will be letting up?? Hoping oriskany blvd is cleared up by 4:30pm

Posted February 22nd at 1:43 PM
Lisa:

Looking at the radar it looks like Utica should be over the storm--dry slot to the left

Posted February 22nd at 1:46 PM
matt (ilion):

What does oil heat have to do w/anything?

Posted February 22nd at 1:58 PM
matt hp:

twelve was horrible from oriskany blvd north

Posted February 22nd at 2:40 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Still some moderate snow here in Sherburne-Norwich area. Had just a hair under 3 inches at home before work. Roadways are slick but DOT is out and trying to keep up.

Posted February 22nd at 2:56 PM
MJ (trenton):

12 is always terrible from orisk. blvd. north.
Call DOT regional director and tell him.

Posted February 22nd at 3:00 PM
Lisa:

Anyone in Rome?? How is Erie BLVD?

Posted February 22nd at 3:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

Snow just about done in Utica north and west. 2" in town, 2" in Whitesboro. 3" in Cassville from earlier. So much for the event busting on us. Have not heard much from Otsego County, but I would imagine a few 3-4" reports, with an isolated 5" somewhere. Road conditions will improve over the next few hours. Mod-Hvy snow will end in Herkimer and Otsego over the next 30 minutes.

Posted February 22nd at 3:27 PM
Lisa:

Snow is NOT done here in Utica............

Posted February 22nd at 3:27 PM
Lisa:

And I havent seen a snow plow all day..The side roads in utica are horrible

Posted February 22nd at 3:31 PM
Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

This question is for somebody in the poland/cold brook area: Im going out on the trails up that way tommorow and was wondering how much snowfall you got up that way today and what your snowpack was at?

Posted February 22nd at 3:33 PM
Matt H (Mount Upton):

4" here so far. looks like the "tail" is gonna push N and E and may still continue moderate snow here for a couple hours?

Posted February 22nd at 3:38 PM
Beth:

Erie BLVD is good, just a little slush

Posted February 22nd at 3:41 PM
Mel (Westernville):

1.9" up here.

Posted February 22nd at 3:41 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: Actually, looking at the radar, you're right. This could kick in another couple inches down there, as long as it pivots north a bit more. Either way, Otsego County might remain in snow for awhile.,...and hey... the 4-6/8" may end up verifying in the end! Who knows.

Posted February 22nd at 3:42 PM
Lisa:

Thanks Beth.. good news to me, i have to go walmart..lol,, now i just hope Oriskany Blvd has been plowed and cleared up

Posted February 22nd at 3:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt H in Mt. Upton. How are you doing there? Looks like a healthy mesoscale band has set up just south of Norwich, through Mt. Upton and into Oneonta and Schenevus.

Posted February 22nd at 4:23 PM
Barbara (Laurens):

Hi Matt: agreed - snow was tapering off but in the last 15 min it's coming down steady again. Very fine, but heavy to shovel. Temp is 25. We had 3 inches, will be more now though!

Posted February 22nd at 4:29 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Snow has begun in earnest again! Not large flakes but coming quite nicely.

Posted February 22nd at 4:53 PM
Jodi ~ (Ilion):

I just meassured 3 1/4 inches of snow here. I don't know all the rules for meassuring but that was on the hood of my husbands car that hasn't moved all day.

Posted February 22nd at 4:55 PM
Matt Lanza:

So much for the event not verifying. The 2-4" forecasted area verified. 4" Herkimer, 4" Boonville, 2.5" Oriskany Falls, 3.5" Cedarville. The 4-8" will come close with this last burst. Hoping for a few 5" reports in Otsego/Chenango Counties.

Posted February 22nd at 5:28 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

lol you tell em!

Probably close to 5 inches now.....But I am inside won't be able to verify till about 11:30.

Posted February 22nd at 5:57 PM
Matt H (Mount Upton):

some moderatly heavy snow has just pushed through. just light flurries here now. total between 5-6 inches depending where you measure

Posted February 22nd at 6:04 PM
Barbara (Laurens):

Matt, easily 5 inches here now - we just finished clearing the grounds - not snowing anymore.

Posted February 22nd at 6:05 PM
randy Vitullo:

2.75 inches Holland Patent................

Posted February 22nd at 6:07 PM
Dave - Westmoreland:

I read this blog frequently, but have never posted. I'm posting now just to say great job to Matt and thanks for the extra time and effort you and the wktv staff put into this for us. It is really appreciated. I'm all for just simply deleting those annoying worthless posts that we seem to have had a rash of lately. Responding to them just encourages it I think. Let them go elsewhere to gripe and keep this blog interesting, informative and fun to read. Thanks again!

Posted February 22nd at 6:08 PM
Matt HP:

Just about 3 inches in HP. Cant get any better than a 2-4 inch forecast with that. Well if you had just said 3 inches with and exclaimation then maybe :-P

Posted February 22nd at 6:28 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

up at greek peak all day in cortland county, they only got about 3-4 inches there, here in binghamton i would estimate 5 or 6 icnhes, havent broken out the ruler yet, i will soon. strong deformation zone going just south of me, i cant beleive it, im missing it by 30 miles!!!sigh, the story of this winter!!

Posted February 22nd at 6:34 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

3.0" inches of snow here for the day. Matt, your forecast verified for us! Great Job as always. If any of you are looking for snowmobile conditions in the Salisbury/Dolgeville area we have plenty of snow still on the ground and the trails should be great this weekend!

Posted February 22nd at 6:36 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Only 2" here but it was falling moderate to heavy for about an hour.Got stuck in some dry air air towards the end.Anywheres from NJ into NYC picked up 6-10".

Posted February 22nd at 6:44 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Yeah great Matt- Way to be wrong again!!!! I mean cmon cant even get the little storms right!!! I just can't believe you would...........GOT YA!!!

Its is amazing how you almost to the tee got this one right (don't let it go to your head). Even the bands that you said would be south of the viewing area.....not bad you even got it right out of your forcast area!!

Posted February 22nd at 6:44 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, honestly very well done this time around(as well as othe times). your map verified very well!!! well time to start the talk on tuesdays storm lol, it never ends!!! gfs is just a tad too far west to give us heavy snow, well the 12z euro would nail us, and the CMC has a good track but limits precip for some reason, this is going to be a well developed potent storm, the kinda storm where the snow just rotates around you for potentially hours on end, if we can get it to track anywhere just SE of BGM we are gold!!!

Posted February 22nd at 6:45 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

That would be great Mike, still way too much time to get excited though. Especially considering I have Tuesday off. It is so much easier to snowplow for 2 hours when I don't have to be at work at 3!!

Posted February 22nd at 7:04 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

well i was off, turns out we got 4 inches via the ruler, looks like a lot more lol, must be because we havent been seeing much of it lately. umm, matt or anyone, do you know where i can get radar data from the storm, i missed it all day today, i wanna see where the meso bands set up.

Posted February 22nd at 7:04 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike Nexrad radar on the weather underground site has archived radar data.

Posted February 22nd at 7:16 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

ok thanks Rob.

Posted February 22nd at 7:23 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

The banding was interesting Mike. There was a small thin band in between me and you and then a very strong solid band in Northern PA.

Posted February 22nd at 8:16 PM
Matt Lanza:

Thanks all...and thanks for the reports too. New entry is up!

Posted February 22nd at 8:30 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

jeff yea, according to that radar, rob told me about it looks like a mesoscale band set up across central chenango county, and another may have breifly made it into binghamton, but stayed mostly across NE PA. i missed the good snow by literally 20-40 miles. areas about 20 miles south of me got 6-8 inches on average, but hey im not complaining, 4" is better than none!!!

Posted February 22nd at 9:01 PM
Ernie:

Jeff I strongly suggest that you pay attention to work and lay off the blog before you get written up and possibly fired.

None of this nonsense applies to your job.

Posted February 22nd at 9:06 PM

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