Tail end of the heat wave....

Posted July 8th, 2010 by Bill Kardas. 80 comments

It's been a very impressive run here in Central New York with the hot weather, but it will eventually come to an end as we head into the weekend.  Today will be the last 90+ day of our heat wave.  Heat waves, as defined as 3 consecutive days of 90 degrees or higher, are very rare in Central New York.  The last one occured in August 2002.  There has only been 9 heat waves over the past 30 years!  Here's a look at them, along with the highest temperature of the heat wave in ()'s:

July 15-18, 1982 (94)
June 13-18, 1983 (91)
July 18-20, 1983 (90)
July 8-11, 1988 (93)
Aug 2-4, 1988 (94)
July 18-20, 1991 (93)
June 16-18, 1994 (92)
August 11-14, 2002 (97)
July 5-8, 2010 (92 so far)


As you can see, 1988 and 1983 hold four of the past 8 heat waves, so these things may tend to occur in the same year.  This current heat wave ties as the longest (4 days) going back to 1980.

Going forward, we'll being to see changes at the price of showers and thunderstorms.  Today, the ridge overhead begins to fall apart.  This will allow for a backdoor weak marine front to move in from the east.  The major cities along the coast will see the largest cooldown from this front today.  It won't make it here in Central New York today, so it is still expected to be hot.  However, that front will attempt to kick off a shower or thunderstorm late this afternoon.  The activity will likely being in Eastern NY early this afternoon, with storms slowly moving from east to west. 

Severe weather is unlikely with this kind of setup.  The winds are going to be very weak, and that will be counter productive to thunderstorm development.  Remember, we need instability AND shear to maintain strong storms.  Without wind shear, the downdraft in thunderstorms competes against and overpowers the updraft.  The updraft is the lifeline of a storm.  Given the amount of instability in the atmosphere, I think the types of storms we will see today will be 'pulsers'.  These storms fire up quickly, looking quite strong at times, but also fall apart quickly.  These kinds of storms happen in Florida all the time because of the ocean breeze, and most of them don't produce severe weather.  Heavy rain will be the bigger deal with these storms, as we have a ton of humidity in the air.  In addition, the weak winds will make most of these storms very slow movers.  This is something we'll be watching closely today and especially tomorrow.

The cold front arrives tomorrow night.  It stays warm and humid on Friday, with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening.  Heavy rain is going to be the big concern with these storms, with just an outside threat of some gusty winds.  The front may get hung up for Saturday, and that's why we're being more pessimistic about the first half of the weekend.  Worse case scenario is that Saturday becomes a washout.  The wet weather will push east by Sunday, but we could see a lot of residual clouds early Sunday morning.  Not a bad thing if you're running in the Boilermaker.

I'm working on a project that compares all of the weather stations across Central New York during the heat wave we've had since Monday.  It's a good weather pattern to compare the highs and lows of the area to each other.  If you haven't already sent in your data, I'm looking for highs and lows on Monday-Wednesday.  So far, I have 20 locations.  If you know your elevation let me know that as well.  I'll have a report on this when the weather quiets down (probably next week).

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  1. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Bill you have my temps yesterdays high was 90.8 degrees. Also we are in a Rural area, about 5 miles outside of the Village of Sherburne and the elevation is 1200’ at the house.

    Posted July 8th at 8:53 AM

  2. Becky (West Leyden):

    Monday 84/53
    Tuesday 87/60
    Wednesday 87/64
    Elevation 1738.8 feet

    Right now it’s 81 with a DP of 72

    Posted July 8th at 9:26 AM

  3. Taylor:

    How severe is the weather supposed to get today.. is there any chance of tornados???

    Posted July 8th at 10:04 AM

  4. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Severe weather is unlikely with this kind of setup. No tornadoes today Taylor.

    Posted July 8th at 10:29 AM

  5. Gary (Schuyler, at work in Syracuse):

    I just got back from several days up on Long Point in Chaumont Bay off the northeast corner of Lake Ontario. That was the place to be! A constant west to southwest wind off the lake kept temperatures down. Sunday for example only saw my thermometer reach 77. Around 80 on Monday, then the thermometer hit the ground and broke… hah! Even yesterday afternoon before I left, it was very pleasant with the breeze. Low 80s at maximum. A big difference in temperature was noted getting out of the camper once I got home.

    Posted July 8th at 10:40 AM

  6. Taylor:

    awesome! thanks for the quick reply too!

    Posted July 8th at 10:42 AM

  7. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Gary,

    You are definately right about that one…large bodies of water have a modifying effect on the climate. That means they keep it cooler during the day but warmer at night. The bodies of water don’t even have to be that large in order to see this change. The weather station in Lakeport (shore of Oneida Lake) has been running an average 3 degrees cooler than Rome during the day, and about 2 degrees warmer at night.

    Posted July 8th at 10:48 AM

  8. Gary (Schuyler, at work in Syracuse):

    Bill,

    Watching the local news/wx there, the meteorologist mentions that the official temperatures are taken at the Watertown Airport, which is in Dexter, in close proximity to Chaumont Bay and that temperatures in downtown Watertown for example are much higher.

    Posted July 8th at 10:59 AM

  9. Mel (Westernville):

    Looks like I may crack 90 today – up to 88 already.
    Unfortunately my thermometer is a Partlow graphing 7 day in wall thermometer and I haven;t changed the paper in a while so I can;t tell my lows form the last week. The sensor out through the wall is in a place that gets zero sun.

    Posted July 8th at 11:41 AM

  10. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Cracked 91 in Westmo. Dew point was up to 76 at one point. WOW!

    Posted July 8th at 11:59 AM

  11. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    93.4 now. Heat index hit 105.

    I see a few pop up showers in central Lewis County.

    Posted July 8th at 1:31 PM

  12. Rob (Whitesboro):

    This is too much. Im never moving to Florida….I could never live like this.

    Posted July 8th at 2:10 PM

  13. Rob (Whitesboro):

    93/75

    Posted July 8th at 2:12 PM

  14. Mel (Westernville):

    Finally hit 90. The BGM AFD is a pretty good read – says the NAM QPF maxes out at 10.25” of rain!

    Posted July 8th at 2:46 PM

  15. Gary (Schuyler, at work in Syracuse):

    Weatherunderground has Ogdensburg at 100.5 F and Binghamton at 101.5 F!
    http://www.wunderground.com/US/NY/?MR=1

    Posted July 8th at 2:49 PM

  16. Gary (Schuyler, at work in Syracuse):

    O’burg just dropped down to 98.9

    Posted July 8th at 2:52 PM

  17. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Temp has reached 93.7 here so far. That reading is in 100% shade.

    Posted July 8th at 3:01 PM

  18. Rob (Whitesboro):

    93/79 in SYR...that’s toast!

    Posted July 8th at 3:07 PM

  19. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    A general question for you weather buffs. What would cause the dewpoint to fluctuate so erractically from one location to the next?? Or is my weather station not computing it correctly?? The dewpoint during daylight hours has not been much over 60 all week. I just can’t figure it would be that much lower just in the country….

    Posted July 8th at 3:22 PM

  20. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    What do you have for a station Jeff. if you’re on here http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=sherburne,%20NY&wuSelect=WEATHER as northern Chenango county, looks like your humidity is kinda low. That will make it off a bit.

    Posted July 8th at 3:30 PM

  21. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Yeah that is mine, but what would make the humidity that low….IT is very odd, it is an expensive station ( not a davis, but an Oregon WMR-962) just not sure what would cause the abnormally low reading

    Posted July 8th at 3:33 PM

  22. MG(Point Rock):

    Currently 93/64 here

    Posted July 8th at 4:11 PM

  23. jessie (ilion):

    the temp here is 93/72 with a feels like 101 with 51% humidity wow its nasty out cant wait till the rain starts moving in…. i love the heat but when its this hot and humid out its just down right nasty yucky out…. i am from az so i am used to the heat but not humidity and its sticky out…. BRING ON TEH RAIN

    Posted July 8th at 4:16 PM

  24. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Jeff H – Can you offset it. I’ve got a Davis and Can adjust stuff if need be if it seems “off”

    Posted July 8th at 4:42 PM

  25. Anthony (Oriskany):

    Gary – The Bing and Odgens temps come fome Personal stations and they are probably surrounded by pavement and buildings. I am a bit suspicious. I have noticed the BGM temps from this location are consistently higher than larger cities in NY.

    Posted July 8th at 4:45 PM

  26. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Yes Tony I can adjust it. Probably will adjust the humidity to an average of my surrounding stations.

    Anthony- I believe that the Binghamton on is right in the city, Also the Norwich Emergency Service one is also in the city on top of the Police Department building in the backup 911 center.

    Posted July 8th at 5:36 PM

  27. MG(Point Rock):

    I can see a classic cumulonimbus anvil top off to my east-northeast

    Posted July 8th at 6:00 PM

  28. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    MG: I believe you are seeing the storm way off in Hamilton County. I can see the anvil as well from here in town. These storms are absolutely crawling!!!

    Posted July 8th at 7:01 PM

  29. Perry (West Utica):

    Monday: 93/64
    Tuesday: 94/73
    Wednesday: 93/71
    Thursday: 95/72

    Elevation: 510’ (on the same hill as Utica College)

    Posted July 8th at 7:23 PM

  30. monster performance (schuylerville):

    400 ish feet. 94/78 today

    i’m headed to the arctic circle if this keeps up!

    Posted July 8th at 8:36 PM

  31. Adam Musyt:

    Looks like one lone thunderstorm has fired south of Utica. It’s a slow mover – moving north at 5-10 mph. We may see a downpour in the Valley after all.

    Posted July 8th at 8:53 PM

  32. MG(Point Rock):

    Adam,
    I can see that anvil, too. In fact, I just saw a lightning streak from it — so clear and sharp, it must have been outside the cloud?
    I can’t remember having such a nice, distant view of these storms. Usually there’s all kind of cirrus and accessory clouds in the way.

    Posted July 8th at 8:57 PM

  33. Adam Musyt:

    MG,

    Yeah I know what you mean. You’ve got a nice clear view – nothing going on between Point Rock and Utica.

    Some of the Saranac Thursday crowd might see a break from the heat this evening…

    Posted July 8th at 8:59 PM

  34. jessie (ilion):

    well temps are at 83/72 and we can hear the storm in the distance cant wait till we get the down pour here if it ever gets here

    Posted July 8th at 9:04 PM

  35. Adam Musyt:

    Jill just checked in with big raindrops downtown. About 5 minutes ago we heard a loud rumble of thunder here at the tv station.

    Posted July 8th at 9:06 PM

  36. Mel (Westernville):

    Topped off at 90 – down to 80 already.

    Posted July 8th at 9:13 PM

  37. Linda (Sauquoit):

    Been pouring here in Sauquoit for about an hour. Lightening and a few loud claps of thunder….at least we don’t have to water the garden tonight!

    Posted July 8th at 9:18 PM

  38. Adam Musyt:

    We’re into a light shower now. Just enough to make the pavements wet.

    Posted July 8th at 9:31 PM

  39. Matt (Cold Brook):

    I was outside at fireplace earlier and snapped a good pic of the Anvil cloud.Can’t remember the last time I saw one so clear.Been watching and hereing the show to my south.A real slow mover.

    Posted July 8th at 9:44 PM

  40. Adam Musyt:

    Updated numbers for Griffiss are in.

    94 was our high today…warmest since June 9, 2008 when the mercury also climbed to 94.

    Posted July 8th at 9:54 PM

  41. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    I had a good look at the anvil and saw the nice lightning strike as the storm moved to my east north east away from us here in HP.. The only thing I was missing was my camera, cell phone camera does not do justice. Weather underground radar looked like it my have rained in stittville and marcy as storm looked like it was dousing the city good and maybe new hartford area. A nice storm north of sherburne heading towards hamilton and madison. Cracked 92 here today..

    Posted July 8th at 10:10 PM

  42. Adam Musyt:

    Another shower has built and this one is directly overhead. We’re getting a moderate downpour now.

    Posted July 8th at 10:54 PM

  43. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    0.35” inch of rain between 11:00-11:45p.m.

    Posted July 9th at 1:23 AM

  44. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I guess the 79 dewpoint in SYR was an error….now it says 73.

    Posted July 9th at 2:54 AM

  45. Becky (West Leyden):

    Thurs High was 88 low was 69

    Just had a few rumbles of thunder during the overnight.

    Right now it’s 73

    Posted July 9th at 7:28 AM

  46. Barbara (Laurens):

    Hi temp yesterday was 98
    Elevation is spprox 1160’

    must have rained here overnight – porch chairs have pools in the seats

    Posted July 9th at 7:42 AM

  47. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Had a quick .32” of rain from that cell that was right along the Thruway this morning.

    Posted July 9th at 7:51 AM

  48. jessie (ilion):

    we had some rain here in ilion early it was all wet outside when i went out for my smoke.. right now temps are 77/71 so i guess its just a waiting game on the storms today.. Does anyone think they are going to be bad storms or just heavy rain?

    Posted July 9th at 9:02 AM

  49. Becky (West Leyden):

    Bill, here is my temp data

    Monday 84/53
    Tuesday 87/60
    Wednesday 87/64
    Thurs 88/ 69
    Elevation 1738.8 feet

    Posted July 9th at 10:10 AM

  50. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Jessie,

    Unless things clear out and we get full sunshine, I don’t see severe weather happening this afternoon. Heavy rain is going to be the bigger deal for sure.

    Posted July 9th at 10:11 AM

  51. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    And it likely won’t be this afternoon. The main line will take its time getting here. Unless something ‘pops’ ahead of the line, it will likely stay dry through at least 7PM this evening. Slower is not better if you’re looking for a nicer Saturday.

    Posted July 9th at 10:49 AM

  52. Karen (Westmoreland):

    we just had a 2 minute rain shower here…. breeze feels very nice …

    Posted July 9th at 12:03 PM

  53. Mel (Westernville):

    Just had a brief shower here as well. Looks like it is going right up route 46.

    Posted July 9th at 12:13 PM

  54. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Bill is live at the Health and Fitness Expo so I thought I would check in. Showers and a few thunderstorms are beginning to pop out ahead of the line of steady and heavy rain. Nothing looks strong to severe but since this showers are moving slow, expect a steady, moderate rainfall.

    Posted July 9th at 12:35 PM

  55. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    A quick shower here in NH Village.

    Posted July 9th at 12:44 PM

  56. jessie :

    i just got off the phone with hubby he went outside to have a smoke at lunch time and was in are car and i heard the rain hitting the windows of the car it was raining so bad… he works in utica i wish we had got the rain here but i guess not yet still waiting

    Posted July 9th at 1:45 PM

  57. Justin (Utica):

    jessie: didnt rain hard here at all. just a quick shower.

    Posted July 9th at 2:05 PM

  58. BabyCakes:

    What does the weather look like for the volunteer picnic this evening? Is it going to be wet?

    Posted July 9th at 3:49 PM

  59. Matt S. (Deerfield):

    I’m guessing that when this rain finally gets here it is gonna be a gully washer.

    Posted July 9th at 6:03 PM

  60. fairfield:

    if it ever gets here, i’ve never seen a slower moving storm before…..need the rain really bad and it’s teasing us

    Posted July 9th at 8:08 PM

  61. JJ:

    Folks…the lightning strikes on the boltek have pretty much ended…looks like a boring line of heavy rain headed our way.

    Posted July 9th at 8:48 PM

  62. Rob (Whitesboro):

    They cancelled the Flood watch for Oneida. The rain definitely looks alot lighter than it did earlier today.

    Posted July 9th at 10:27 PM

  63. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Whens the heavy rain everyone is talking about going to get here? Only a few light showers as of 11 PM.

    Posted July 9th at 11:08 PM

  64. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    Still light rain here, so far 1” total. Nice warm rain will make things grow.

    Posted July 10th at 6:43 AM

  65. Sarah:

    Doesn’t look like we got much rain at all. What happened? We need the rain!

    Posted July 10th at 7:18 AM

  66. Matt (Cold Brook):

    Well that certainly wasn’t as bad as forcasted.I show only half inch of rain in a 3 hr period.No puddles on the ground anywhere.Thunder and lightening stopped at about 10:30 pm last night.Feast or famin

    Posted July 10th at 7:42 AM

  67. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Only .17” of rain here in the last 11 days, and all of thatb fell last night.

    Posted July 10th at 8:06 AM

  68. Ted:

    Not much of a rainstorm here in Ilion … only .25” in the gauge this morning.

    Posted July 10th at 8:39 AM

  69. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Wow what happened last night, all the talk of heavy rain and flooding turned into a 30 minute shower with a few heavy bursts. What caused the rain to dissipate so quickly??

    Posted July 10th at 10:50 AM

  70. Becky (West Leyden):

    Picked up 0.24 here.

    Temp is 73 and DP is 69

    Posted July 10th at 10:56 AM

  71. deb in hartwick:

    We had a nice 1.5 inches of rain last night and .6 inches the night before…perfect timing
    loving this summer weather!
    warm and muggy 75 degrees with a dew pt. of 66…

    Posted July 10th at 11:28 AM

  72. Matt H Mount Upton:

    1.35 inches of rain here in the Unadilla Valley.

    Posted July 10th at 2:09 PM

  73. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Figures, I only picked up .17” of rain last night when we were suppose to get the heavy stuff, but I just picked up .27” of rain in a heavy shower that went through just after 1 PM this afternoon, when the rain was suppose to be over with. Had to bring my grand daughters 2 year old birthday party inside.

    Posted July 10th at 2:32 PM

  74. Mel (Westernville):

    Amazing what a small distance can make Gordon – I am just across the ravine from you and only had some sprinkles today but yesterday we had a quick shower go through that gave us .10”.

    Posted July 10th at 2:46 PM

  75. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Outside of an isolated shower, the rest of the day does look dry with some sunshine.

    Posted July 10th at 4:13 PM

  76. fairfield:

    if i’m away from my computer how can i send weather information to the weather team

    Posted July 10th at 5:24 PM

  77. Becky (West Leyden):

    Gordon/ Mel, you can say that again, I picked up .51” from the same storm.

    Posted July 11th at 2:34 AM

  78. fairfield:

    can anyone tell me, for my area, about how much rain we’ve had since june 23

    Posted July 11th at 11:02 AM

  79. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Good day for the Boilermaker. This was probably the best day to have it. Humidity wasn’t too bad…or at least it could of been alot worse. Looks like were going back into the dog days of summer this week. Hopefully we’ll get some storms.

    Posted July 11th at 12:41 PM

  80. Jill Reale (Utica):

    New entry is up!

    Posted July 11th at 8:53 PM

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