Weather Blog | Super Tuesday... More Like Super Wednesday....

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As we watch the Super Tuesday results trickle in, here in the weather center, we eagerly are watching current temperature trends and the 00Z models as they come down.

This is what we know.

A lot of moisture is coming this way tonight. At the same time, cooler air is trying to bleed south from Canada. Temperatures this evening aren't bad. We're mid 30s in Old Forge, and upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Cool, but in good shape. This will need to be watched closely through Midnight. If we start to see areas tank, we'll have a higher confidence in frozen precip in those spots. Areas that are still in the 40s by midnight will have a significantly lower chance at frozen precip.

Through the day tomorrow, we'll be seeing cool air continue to bleed into CNY. Either way, you may start the day rain and end the day snow. Here are my thoughts.

Two waves of precip. One tomorrow for morning rush and through the morning. A break in the afternoon followed by another round of heavy precip tomorrow night.

Snow and sleet will be the main precip type in Old Forge, Lewis County, Boonville, Hamilton County, and central Herkimer County. Snow amounts will be 100% dictated by how much sleet mixes in. I could have gone 5-10", but I'm going 3-7, because I do feel we'll see sleet mix in and hold accumulations down.

In the Mohawk Valley and the majority of the rest of the viewing area, we will start as rain. But we will change over to sleet and freezing rain through the morning. Northern areas will go over to sleet and snow. Southern areas will stay freezing rain.

There will be a big disparity from hilltops to valleys. Valley locations may end up fine, with mostly rain and sleet. But hilltops in and around the Mohawk Valley will likely dip below freezing. This could lead to significant icing (1/4"+) and sleet.

My biggest concern in our area is in Otsego and Chenango Counties. The thermal profiles this afternoon that I looked at put me at ease in the North Country, as they looked significantly like sleet and snow. That's fine. But in Otsego County, we saw a strong signal for freezing rain potential. So if temperatures (especially on hilltops) go below freezing, significant ice accumulation (1/3" or so) is possible in those areas.

I'm using the words "could," "might," and "potentially" a lot. Why? Because as I said before, this forecast is the most complex we've seen this winter. Last Friday, we knew we'd be cold enough...and the only forecast concern would be snow vs. sleet/freezing rain vs. mostly sleet. This time around, we have that and rain...and the most subtle shift in where the cold front or area of low pressure sets up and tracks makes a huge difference. I've been talking with meteorologists at NWS, in Elmira, Binghamton and Rochester. We are all scratching our heads on this one. This is tough, and there is a high bust factor in both the forecast and amounts.

Unfortunately we can't tell you much more than this. Stay tuned as "nowcasting," real time updates of what's occurring, will be huge for this event. Post observations as often as you can here, as it will help us tremendously. Thank you.

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mark sodus / williamson area of wayne county:

currently 34 deg I'll take all snow please.

Posted February 5th at 8:25 PM
Big Mike by the falls in Forestport:

Matt, 38 and holding, fine mist, baro rising slowly. What if anything will that mess moving up thru the Tennesse valley have in store for us in the near future?

Posted February 5th at 8:26 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike...that's all related to tomorrow's storm. Moisture loaded. If this ends up all rain, we have to watch out for flooding. I doubt that happens. But it's a lot of moisture coming close to us.

Posted February 5th at 8:28 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

What an amazing amount of moisture out there to the West and South. Matt just to let you know from the previous convo, the temp is jumpin back and forth. If you get a sec look at the PWS it is very odd.

Posted February 5th at 8:30 PM
Matt Lanza:

Temps are all over the place right now... we have a 46 in Oneonta and Milford, and a 35 in Old Forge, but I'm periodically refreshing the map of temps on Weather Underground and it's fascinating to see temps up and down and back and forth.

Posted February 5th at 8:43 PM
Cindy (ilion):

WOW, winter storm watch up. I have been very busy today and didn't realise it was suppose to get that bad. Oh, but I see you aren't calling for weather to get as bad as NOAA??? I guess I will have to keep my eye on this huh Matt?

Posted February 5th at 8:44 PM
Jimmy DeFazio New Hartford):

around 40 degrees here.

Posted February 5th at 9:02 PM
Matt Lanza:

As an aside, a historic tornado outbreak is continuing in the south. There is a lot of damage in Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky right now and there have been some tremendous tornadoes for February. This is a very spring-like system.

Posted February 5th at 9:06 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Hey Cindy I believe the Watch is for 1/4 inch of ice possibility with minimal snowfall. I think that is what Matt is thinking as well. Plus both sources state that the temperature gradient is going to be all over the place and the confidence in the forecast is very low.

Posted February 5th at 9:07 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: You bet. The only certainty right now is uncertainty. This will be a nasty storm for most of us...but whether it's rain, sleet and rain, snow and sleet or freezing rain is going to be extremely tough to call.

Posted February 5th at 9:08 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, et all, the 00z NAM JUST in and it is SIGNIFICANTLY colder with 850 mb temps!!! well have to wait for more data to see how this translates to surface temps.

Posted February 5th at 9:09 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

upon further review(of 12z and 18z NAM) the call on the field is overturned...srry had a little sunday left in me...i may have over reacted, i would call it SLIGHTLY colder with 850mb temps.

Posted February 5th at 9:13 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: That is interesting...and it is more in line with what we're seeing in observations of 850 mb temps tonight (although Buffalo was +4 at 00Z which was well handled by the 12Z NAM). That said, temperatures have really stabilized and are not falling fast. The big key will be Old Forge. If they fall below 32 by 10 PM, the NAM is on to something. If they do not, then we're a bit warmer than expected.

Posted February 5th at 9:17 PM
Barbara (Laurens):

Last look outside... temp at 42, no precipitation... good night all.

Posted February 5th at 9:56 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

34.0 at old forge last check. im at 41.0 here

Posted February 5th at 9:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

Just as an FYI, Old Forge was projected to be 30F at 10 PM on the 12Z NAM...I think we end up between the NAM and GFS, with mostly rain south and snow/sleet north....sleet/rain in between.

Posted February 5th at 10:04 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

It interesting learning how to read the forecast maps and models. I was looking at the Ptype map for the latest run and there are more models showing a colder solution (at least compared to earlier runs). I tried to look at the 2mtemp but it is so congested it hurt my eyes looking at it!! we are at 37 degrees now.

Posted February 5th at 10:07 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

36.1 degrees with mist here. At my second location a mile away I was at 39 degrees and weather bug for Herkimer was also at 39 degrees. We still have a considerable amount of snow on the ground up this way as well. I checked the East Canada Creek around 5:30p.m. and it was running a bit high with alot of slush and ice flowing downstream. I would start to get pretty concerned here if we get 1-2" inches of rain, instead of frozen precip as this would cause problems with ice jams. Actually I may take a walk back over to the creek and see what is going on again. It was alot higher than I thought it would be earlier, so I think I will keep a close eye on things.

Posted February 5th at 10:19 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

jeff, yea the 2m temps are too hard to read, im waiting for the close up wrf model to come out to see 2m and 850 mb temps in more detail

Posted February 5th at 10:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

Guys, just a note about these WeatherBugs...they usually just take the closest "official" reporting site....which in this case would be Rome, which was at 39 for awhile.

Posted February 5th at 10:24 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

OK last post I am going home in 10 minutes. But just snuck a peek at the WRF and from what it seems outside of the first two frames the 0 temp line stays south of or just at the ny/pa border with real cold air coming in with that second batch of moisture tom. Maybe wrong considering I am no expert....And also it is VERY high on the QPF for the forcast period lots of yellows and oranges. What do you say Matt???

Posted February 5th at 10:38 PM
Cindy (ilion):

38.6 here. Is that higher than was expected? I'm sick of this freezing rain and sleet....bring on the snow.

Posted February 5th at 10:38 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: I think we see mostly rain with the first wave (except in the North Country/Adirondacks). The second wave (tomorrow night) will be mostly sleet/snow.

Posted February 5th at 10:41 PM
Matt Lanza:

Interesting look at the 00Z NAM showing temps above 32 in the Valley most of tomorrow, but below 32 south of the Valley for much of the 2nd half of the 1st wave...so rain for all I think...changing over to sleet/freezing rain in Otsego/Chenango (as scripted earlier). But mostly rain/sleet in the Valley. Mostly snow/sleet north of the Valley. Total precip through round one is about 1" up north, 1-2" south of Route 20....possible flooding along the Susquehanna. Round two delivers about 0.50"-0.75", mostly snow and sleet, so at most I think 3-6" total.

Winter Storm Warnings up for Northern Herkimer.

Posted February 5th at 10:49 PM
Matt Lanza:

Updated snow map coming.

Posted February 5th at 10:55 PM
mike m (binghamton):

very interesting situation, the only viable forecast for cny, is nowcasting bc it is just too complicated on the models.

Posted February 5th at 11:00 PM
Matt Lanza:

And here it is.

Posted February 5th at 11:00 PM
Bob ( Cooperstown):

Temp here 37 in the village. Just left work 3.5 miles south of here and the temp was 47 a ten degree difference in 3.5 miles impressive. Much less foggy as well

Posted February 5th at 11:01 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

temp and dp dropping decently here in binghamton, we went from 41.5 to 40 in about 45 mins. dp went from 41- 39

Posted February 5th at 11:06 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mid 30s now across the area...North Country pushing 32. This is tough.

Posted February 5th at 11:12 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

35.8 degrees as of 11:10p.m. Temp trend here the past few hours has been for temps to slowly fall. Just got back from my walk and the East Canada Creek is running a little under half bankful. Lots of slush and small ice chunks still flowing at a good pace from the dam upstream. Must be ice softening and breaking up towards Stratford and Salisbury area and flowing down through. Below the dam in the vicinity of the the Hydro plant on Van Buren and Dolge Ave, water is completely covered with ice still, so this would be the problem area.

Posted February 5th at 11:21 PM
Stacy ( Stratford ):

Living here in Stratford(N Fulton County), am I considered to be in the CNY viewing area? I notice that a lot of the time the forecast for the viewing area and what it actual is here differs from time to time. We allways seem to get a bit more snow/sleet, and colder temps. I see a winter storm warning has been issued for my area from the NWS. This could be intresting.

Posted February 5th at 11:25 PM
Matt Lanza:

Stacy: Not entirely, but I try to do a decent job in your area because we do have viewers. I am thinking close to 4-8" for you, probably more.

Posted February 5th at 11:30 PM
Stacy ( Stratford ):

Matt, and a decent job you do! I, like most on this blog appreciate all the work and effort you put into it in order to keep this as interactive as it is. Thanks for all you do!

Posted February 5th at 11:33 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

temp continues to fall here, 39.5 now. as matt said this is certainly going to be a clsoe call

Posted February 5th at 11:34 PM
Mel (Westernville):

33.8 degrees hee - fog was bad early but has dissipated in the last hour or so.

Posted February 5th at 11:35 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

34.7 degrees with dense fog. Visibility is under 200 feet. DO NOT TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE!

Posted February 6th at 12:50 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

33.1 degrees as of 1:20a.m. Fog is incredibly thick! Last update for the night.

Posted February 6th at 1:22 AM
Matt Lanza:

Well, the battleground is setup and it's just wait and see now. Like I said, a lot of this event will be short-term and nowcasted, so real time updates will be crucial. Tune in later this morning for the latest and we'll be here through the day.

Posted February 6th at 1:33 AM
Jules (Ilion):

36 degrees at Ilion at 2:35am

Posted February 6th at 2:36 AM
Matt (C B ):

We had very heavy rains monday night and drizzle all day on tuesday with heavy fog setting in during the afternoon.
Checked the west canada creek at poland around 2pm and was surprised to see it so high.The creek in my back yard is over the banks.The snowpack here is a general 8-12 inches.35.2 degrees at 6 am and raining.

Posted February 6th at 6:07 AM
Gina ( Trenton Falls):

morning all.....Matt looks like you are not the only one being driven nuts by this forecast....Just talked to a local superintendent, and they are wringing their hands on whether or not to close schools.
I know she reads this blog....so ANNE...how about a SNOW DAY?

Posted February 6th at 6:26 AM
Amy (Remsen):

32.5 degrees with Rain, hard to tell from inside if it's freezing on but a few power lines look to have a "crust" on them.

Posted February 6th at 6:34 AM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

It's raining here, and if I was superintendent, I'd close. Temperature is dropping, so all this ponding water on the road will freeze.

Posted February 6th at 6:43 AM
Debbie:

I have to go to Oneida this afternoon (around 2ish). How does the weather and road conditions look for around that time. I am wondering if I should change it to this morning.

Posted February 6th at 7:31 AM
Tony (CNYWeather.com - Westmoreland):

Debbie, there is a winter weather advisory for sleet and freezing rain possibly starting between 11am and 1pm today.

Posted February 6th at 7:47 AM
Matt (CB):

Temp is still at 35 but fog is coming in again.Creek in yard definately flood stage.Rain has ended.Gonna take a ride to Poland to see W C Creek.Looks like all afdter school programs will be cancelled today if forcast is right.

Posted February 6th at 8:33 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Good morning all. Still above freezing down here, but not by much. We have had just over an inch of rain but we still have snow on the ground which seems odd to me. Now that we are in the lull I am waiting for round 2!!!

Posted February 6th at 9:08 AM
MG(Point Rock):

I'm in North-Central Oneida Co. We have been entirely rain all morning. Temp has risen from 33 to 35 in the last 3 hours.

Posted February 6th at 9:24 AM
Matt Lanza:

Couple of things to point out....

This is not behaving at all like any storm we've seen this season. In most of the cases of a similar setup, those of you at 33 would have gone over to rain. I'm guessing that there is an abundance of warm air aloft, moreso than the models hinted at (which is almost impossible to predict), so we can't get snowflakes or even sleet.

Second: The "break in the action" has begun much sooner than expected and round two will likely begin a few hours early as well, later this afternoon. By then it should be a more obvious straight rain-snow scenario, but...we'll see. Not entirely fond of how this has played out so far.

Posted February 6th at 9:48 AM
Jeff:

Matt,
Looks like Mother Nature is not laying all the cards out like it is supposed to be, kinda makes you wonder what else she has in store for us

Posted February 6th at 9:53 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Temp has slowly ticked up to 35 degrees since 4:00am

Posted February 6th at 10:05 AM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: We'll see. Temperatures will be slowly falling this afternoon. This may actually end up for most of us, being what we initially thought last week... rain to wet snow.

Posted February 6th at 10:12 AM
Piseco Lake:

Temperature has risen from 32.9 degrees at 8:30 a.m. to 36.9 degrees currently. A steady drizzle has been falling all morning and continues now.

Posted February 6th at 11:00 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Temps finally started going the other way now - down to 33 degrees with very light fine snow.

Posted February 6th at 11:21 AM
Jeff:

Matt,
Jumping ahead a little, for this wknd. storm potential on Saturday?

Posted February 6th at 11:21 AM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: I'll get into that later tonight. It looked good yesterday for a widespread few inches...we'll see how today's looks.

Posted February 6th at 11:24 AM
Brad (Oneonta):

39 and light rain here. Rained hard last night, streams are up quite a bit. Some smaller streams most likely to go over soon, but susquehanna has a ways to go yet.

Posted February 6th at 11:27 AM
LB:

How does it look for this afternoon in the Rome/Oneida area. There is not much on the radar right now. Is there still chance of frezzing rain?

Posted February 6th at 11:40 AM
bob Cooperstown:

Temp.37 no rain now dead calm

Posted February 6th at 12:16 PM
Walt-Norwich:

Rain broke but enough on the ground to cause seeping in the besement here, more than I've seen since the rain storm of june '06, usually just a dampness

Posted February 6th at 12:23 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Death toll from the twisters is up to 52 now.That was a major outbreak for February standards.NAM gives us 1-1.25" of precip through 39 hours.That would be nice if that fell as all snow.Seems like 850 temps are cold enough.

Posted February 6th at 12:54 PM
Matt Lanza:

Looking quiet for the next couple hours, so the evening commute will probably be fine...aside from some sporadic showers. The temperature forecast through tonight is (still) very tricky, and it's going to be a close call between freezing rain and sleet or sleet and snow. Snow ratios tonight are going to be extremely low end (8:1 or so). I do think the bulk of the good precipitation goes to our north now. Either way, travel tonight will become a bit slippery...and that's almost a certainty. So if you have evening plans, allow plenty of extra time.

Posted February 6th at 2:15 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

34.5 degrees here and steadily falling. Temp was 38 an hour ago. WINTER STORM WARNINGS are now in effect for all of Herkimer, Fulton, and Montgomery counties. I think they are a little too confident with warning criteria snow and ice verifying. I would have went with a winter weather advisory. I'm on my way out to check the creek. I imagine it is running high.

Posted February 6th at 2:35 PM
Lisa:

Utica area will be getting fr rain and sleet tonight? When is it supposed to start?

Posted February 6th at 3:40 PM
Gina:

I guess we should be lucky with going all day without the great combo of snow/sleet/freezing rain...but once again mother nature is just not letting Old Man Winter have any fun. :(

Posted February 6th at 3:43 PM
Ken ( S Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

NWS has a meso discussion up for freezing rain/sleet/snow for a large portion of western ny an some of cny as well....and also a large area of heavy snow moving north and east behind the first wave......looks like a messy night ahead

Posted February 6th at 3:45 PM
Matt Lanza:

Well i got an early jump on things and the updated snow map is out!

Click here to view it.

I have to apologize in advance, as this is again one of those situations that will be almost impossible to accurately forecast. We could very well have a situation tonight where someone has freezing rain, the person 2 miles up the road is in plain rain and another person two miles up from there is in snow. Very tricky and complex and that map represents my best guess at this point for tonight and tomorrow morning.

Posted February 6th at 4:00 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Down to 28 here, 2 hours ago I was at 37!

Posted February 6th at 4:00 PM
Matt (CB):

Temps are starting to fall.Was 38 at 2 and now down to 34.West canada creek was definately full but should be OK.

Posted February 6th at 4:00 PM
Bob Cooperstown:

Temp here 35 pressure 29.56 light mist falling

Posted February 6th at 4:34 PM
kelly:

Matt, on the full forcast under Saturday it says snow developing with a chance of a thunderstorm. Does that mean that we will have thundersnow, or a thunderstorm and then snow following behind the thunderstorm.

Posted February 6th at 4:57 PM
Matt Lanza:

Kelly: Thundersnow is a possibility on Saturday. I've seen a chance of it for three days now, so I figured it would make sense to put it in :)

Posted February 6th at 5:08 PM
ken:

matt,is it possible we can get significant snow this weekend here in the city of utica?I know it is early and les is hard to predict but is it possible?

Posted February 6th at 5:14 PM
kelly:

thank you Matt also any idea how much snow we are talking about? I know you really can't pinpoint how much and where but just a guess?

Posted February 6th at 5:15 PM
Matt Lanza:

Ken/Kelly: Possible, but unlikely to be honest. And I haven't really dug into this storm, aside from thunder potential. I'm not expecting large amounts, but potentially enough to cause inconveniences.

Posted February 6th at 5:27 PM
Andy Forestport:

I don't know about everybody else but the month of MAY sounds good to me right now, I love winter and winter sports, but weather like this for extended periods is not healthy for the mind in my oppinion. I am over it....

Posted February 6th at 5:34 PM
Matt Lanza:

As the rain begins, if anyone can post ice conditions, I'd appreciate it. I'm not sure if the temps are cold enough for much ice, but I'm seeing reports from W NY and Ithaca of some decent ice accumulation.

Posted February 6th at 6:01 PM
Matt H (Mount Upton):

First time posting here. I am a weather junky kind of like the rest of us here. 38 degrees here and all is quiet. Unadilla River is quite high. Susquehanna river swollen but not really over its banks any where near Sidney.

Posted February 6th at 6:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt H: Great to have you aboard! We have almost no one who reports from that part of the area, so feel free to chime in as much as you can!

Very fickle over the next few hours with rain, freezing rain, sleet where it rains real hard...very perplexing. There may even be a rumble of thunder, especially south of Rt. 20. After about 8 PM though, conditions may improve. Use caution driving, because temperatures are all over the place, so one area may be iced over, where just a couple miles away, another area is ice free.

Posted February 6th at 6:25 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Matt: You're relative closeness predictions are coming true. A friend of mine 5 miles away is getting heavy snow, while I have heavy Freezing Rain.

Posted February 6th at 6:37 PM
Betsi!West Leyden:

Temps are at 29* been quiet here all day sleet/freezing rain has been hitting window for a hour now...

Posted February 6th at 6:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

Western New York is getting hit very hard right now with freezing rain and thunder. Accumulations out there have been already up to 1/8" and travel is almost impossible. Another reason why I'd urge you to use caution out there. It's not as bad here as it is there, but it just drives home the point.

Posted February 6th at 7:03 PM
Betsi West Leyden:

7;06 went to check out the outside pouring rain now,,cars all glazed with coating of ice temps 29

Posted February 6th at 7:13 PM
Betsi West Leyden:

freezin rain now what crazy weather i have to say ,,,Temps 30 now,,,crazy crazy weather!

Posted February 6th at 7:27 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

32.2 degrees with very light rain. No ice accumulation at all here. East Canada Creek is running high, but there is a nice clean channel so far, so as long as precip is frozen we should be okay. NWS still persistent with those winter storm warnings calling for 5-10" inches in the valley, but I just don't see that happening. I think we will be lucky to see an inch or two. Precip doesn't look impressive to the south either. Just scattered activity.

Posted February 6th at 7:28 PM
Brian:

Matt, it is snowing in Old Forge 26 degrees.

Posted February 6th at 7:39 PM
Piseco Lake:

Light drizzle has turned to sleet, becoming a bit more moderate. Temperature is hovering around 29 degrees. Roadways are clear of ice, highway crews have done a good job this afternoon preparing and salting the roads.

Posted February 6th at 7:41 PM
Sarah:

I'm with Andy from FP. It would be really nice to see the sun right about now. All this damp, cold, icey, lack of sun weather can really make a person crabby. I think I need some Vitamin K! Come on sun!

Posted February 6th at 7:56 PM
Alex:

Is LES still going to happen? If so will it effect the North Counrty?

Posted February 6th at 8:08 PM
Fred B. (South Utica):

Matt, what does the morning commute look like for the AM? Schools closing??? Bad roads??? Thanks....

Posted February 6th at 8:11 PM
Matt Lanza:

ALex: Not looking out that far right now sorry.

More rain and freezing rain is going to move in over the next couple hours and could make periodic travel problems across the area. It'll be more sporadic than this evening, but it could be heavy at times and a rumble of thunder is still possible as well.

Posted February 6th at 8:12 PM
Tom Shattuck:

Matt:
First time posting for me. Still raining here in Clay, NY. Current temp: 32. Hopefully we wont get much icing.

Posted February 6th at 8:13 PM
Matt Lanza:

Fred: I honestly don't know if it'll be enough for school closings, but I would get up a few minutes early to check on conditions.

Posted February 6th at 8:15 PM
Brian:

Heavy snow in Old Forge. If it keeps snowing like this might end up with a good amount.

Posted February 6th at 8:15 PM
Dana - NH:

Off of our local weather subject, but it seems that the tornadoes is blamed by "La Nina" I heard and read on a Tennessee news site.

Posted February 6th at 8:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

Dana: You certainly can't attribute a specific weather event to something like La Nina, as it does not directly cause things like that. But, it is well known that in La Nina late winters and springs, there is typically more severe weather than normal, so unfortunately, this is probably just the start of a long spring season for folks in the South and Midwest.

Brian: Whenever you can measure, we'd love a report. Thank you!

Posted February 6th at 8:28 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Just plain rain here.Heavy snow being reported around Mexico with zero visability last hour.

Posted February 6th at 8:30 PM
Matt Lanza:

Just spoke to the NWS Albany...interesting scenario where the Hudson Valley is draining cold air into the Capital Region and they may be upgrading to Winter Storm Warnings there, as there has already been 0.2" ice. We're lucky here in that we're not seeing that real cold air drainage. Looking at some short fused temperature forecasts, Rome should not get below freezing until well after midnight. Knock on wood that that continues to be forecasted. Most areas west of Little Falls are doing ok as well. Some hilltops south of Utica are a bit icy by now though I am sure.

Posted February 6th at 8:42 PM
Bob (Cooperstown):

Heavy Rain for awhile starting to lighten up temp 31 light glaze starting to form. Pressure 29.47

Posted February 6th at 8:43 PM
Laura (West Winfield):

Just got back from the Middle School and everything is coated in ice. I'll check back in later on...

Posted February 6th at 8:48 PM
randy Vitullo:

A couple of thoughts. A) Evaporational cooling doesn't exist. It is a term that weather forecasters use to hype up the chance for snow instead of rain (as proven by an all day rain event with warming of the atmosphere as opposed to cooling) B)Forecasters are calling for a changeover; some even say 4 to 8 inches of snow. I say we may see a flurry by tomorrow morning. C) Cold air bleeds in from the north during the day (today, Wed) with temps dropping; the temps rose all day D)WHAT'S UP WITH THIS MESS? Disgusted........ What the heck happened? How can temps rise all day with arctic air bleedin in from the north all day? This not a personal attack on any forecaster. I AM JUST VENTING. Disgusted snow lover. Flooding occurring in HP; trail erosion quickly taking over. Any snow that falls will melt on the standing lakes and ponds and streams..................that now exist on the snowpack (what remains of it).... Sorry..

Posted February 6th at 8:53 PM
Matt Lanza:

From places (especially in Herkimer County) that are icing up...please try and send some ice totals to us. I'm trying to keep the NWS in the loop...and I want to know myself!

Posted February 6th at 8:54 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Light to moderate freezing rain here. Ice is glazing cars, blacktop, etc...Temp is 32.7.

Posted February 6th at 9:02 PM
Mel (Westernville):

30 degrees here with heavy sleet and freezing rain falling.

Posted February 6th at 9:04 PM
Barb (Lee Center):

It is raining quite hard here. Took the garbage out...and it almost feels balmy out....warm for this time of year. No ice, no snow. Very weird. Could we be in a warm pocket or something (if that is possible)? It seems to be warmer out now than it was this afternoon...at least here.

Posted February 6th at 9:07 PM
Matt Lanza:

Barb: Nothing would surprise me at this point. The atmosphere is doing whatever it wants right now. Makes my job reallll interesting.

As an aside, looking at the bigger picture... dry air is working into southwest NY. We have our current wave of snowicerainfreezingrainsleet and I suspect we'll have one more after 10:30 PM...followed by a lull..at which point, most areas should flip to snow and sleet. It will be a struggle to get snow accumulation south of Rome.

Posted February 6th at 9:11 PM
Barb (Lee Center):

Thanks Matt...it's almost kind of a relief...the transmission went in our 4-wheel drive truck, so I have been on pins and needles driving our Pontiac that we only drive in the dry weather...it won't be fixed until next week.

I am going to check with my kids in Rochester to see what the weather is like back there...they go to college in Rochester...if I find anything out I will let you know.

Posted February 6th at 9:14 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Matt where is the forecast discussion link?I haven't seen it on the homepage the last couple days.I also like to use the blog link at the bottom of the discussion because all the other blog links I click on are messed up somehow.

Posted February 6th at 9:19 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: That should be fixed now. I don't know what happened to our other two slots there.

Posted February 6th at 9:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

Based on the latest radar loops, I have gone with this new snow forecast.

Posted February 6th at 9:41 PM
Jules (Ilion):

light rain 31 degrees... no ice yet in Ilion

Posted February 6th at 9:46 PM
Gary (Schuyler):

Just got a call from a friend in the city of Amsterdam. They have freezing rain. Plain rain here in Schuyler at 760 ft elevation.

Posted February 6th at 9:49 PM
Matt Lanza:

Couple DOT related notes...

Route 5 in Kirkland is shut down for flooding...typical spot..the first to close.

Lewis County: No unnecessary travel. So stay put. Travel north tonight is not at all advised, anywhere.

Posted February 6th at 9:51 PM
Matt Lanza:

Cancel on the Rt 5 closure. That is back open.

River Street in Oriskany to Whitestown is closed through tomorrow.

Posted February 6th at 9:53 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Just in case any Adirondack kids are out there in West Leyden, schools CAN be open tomorrow in Lewis county. According to the press release, they can pretty much be open until they say no travel whatsoever.

27 here. Lots of ice on the trees. I'll have to get a picture tomorrow.

Posted February 6th at 9:56 PM
Scott (Holland Patent:

Just plain rain here. Took the dog out for his last run of the day an the cars weren't even icing over yet.

Posted February 6th at 10:08 PM
Dom-Tech (Just East of Oneida County Airport):

Hard Rain 10:13PM

Posted February 6th at 10:14 PM
(Litchfield):

The freezing rain started a couple of hours ago. Raining hard now and there's a pretty good coating of ice everywhere here.

Posted February 6th at 10:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

Thanks guys... keep the reports coming..it'll help me out tremendously for the 11!

Posted February 6th at 10:21 PM
Cindy (ilion):

It is 33 degrees here and raining pretty hard. I keep thinking if only this was snow.

Posted February 6th at 10:26 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

32.5 degrees here with moderate rain. NOTHING is freezing here yet. Trees, roads, sidewalks, etc... are all ice free. I am more concerned about flooding than anything else. East Canada Creek continues to run high, and if this stays liquid all night, I could see it possibly come close to flood stage. I'd estimate it to be 1/2-3/4 bankful right now. Just something to watch closely!

Posted February 6th at 10:27 PM
Matt Lanza:

Michael: That's incredible to me. This storm has been beyond fickle and just the fact that a traditional cold powerhouse like your area can't even change over is unreal. Good thing the rain should end soon.

Posted February 6th at 10:32 PM
Gordon (Northwestern):

Temperature has gone from 30.5 with sleet and freezing rain at 7 PM, to 34.3 with steady rain as of 10:30

Posted February 6th at 10:43 PM
Matt Lanza:

Batch of heavy rain moving over us right now here in Deerfield. Temp is up above 32F.

Posted February 6th at 10:47 PM
Matt Lanza:

Basically the cold front coming through now I think. Winds have cranked up considerably here with heavy rain. Looks as though a line of showers, embedded thunder from here in CNY back down the East Coast.

Posted February 6th at 10:55 PM
Betsi West Leyden:

this is for #116 what makes u think there will be school tommorrow,,today we had a snow day to be safe, when we want them, or need them ,,becuse we cant see 2 feet in front of us,,, we dont get em- freezing rain.sleet.snow not a good combo we will see what morning brings(alot can happen over night) ,,31 degress and rain/sleet mixed. cars all glazed over pretty good .....just waiting for the snow to arrive what a mess by morning i bet!#114 STATES NO TRAVEL TONIGHT ALREADY,,much easier to travel in the snow(bad enough) then the ice u think?fire whistle non stop tonight,,scary,

Posted February 6th at 11:29 PM
Sacy (Stratford):

It was a downpour here not even an hour ago. I look outside now to find my road is completely froze over, and its begun to lightly snow. Looks almost like a fine mist. I bet situations like this will make for trecherous travel in the AM due to the fact under the snow is ICE. I have not seen a single town plow at all.

Posted February 6th at 11:42 PM
Stacy* ( Stratford ):

Above comment, misspelled name! What a goof I can be.

Posted February 6th at 11:50 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

31.6 degrees with Heavy Rain. I just went outside, and just a little bit of ice is starting to form on sidewalks. You really have to look for it though! Roads are just wet. Last update for the night as I really don't see anything that concerns me aside from creek levels.

Posted February 7th at 12:06 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

And of course as soon as I say that, we now have Heavy Sleet and freezing rain falling with a few snow flakes, and roads are starting to ice up and get a very thin layer of slush on them. 31.5 degrees.

Posted February 7th at 12:16 AM
Matt Lanza:

I got caught in the middle of that mess on the way home and let me tell you...it was not pretty. I've never seen it rain that hard in February and I've never seen freezing rain and sleet fall that hard. Unbelievable!

Posted February 7th at 1:52 AM
Gina ( Trenton Falls):

Morning all...
I just have to go off topic for a second and apoligize to the comments on made to Anne yesterday....Sorry, won't happen again.
To Matt and the crew, wow I found out yesterday how popular your weather blog is.....GREAT JOB!

Posted February 7th at 5:58 AM
Bob May (Verona):

It appears that it never went below freezing here. It is 33 now. We got lots of rain but never got any freezing rain (obviously). NWS says it didn't go below 34 at Griffiss Airfield in Rome. Yesterday evening, composite radar from Intellicast showed a small pocket of rain around Rome that was just rain (no freezing rain) all evening. Strange!

Posted February 7th at 6:00 AM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Betsy - Regarding comment 127. http://southlewis.4vqzl21.remote.schoolcenter.com/education/components/docmgr/download.php?sectiondetailid=3078&fileitem=1054&catfilter=151:"Here"'s the travel definitions. Pretty much the sheriff could care less.

Posted February 7th at 6:26 AM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Crap, this should work. If someone would delete the last comment.

Posted February 7th at 6:26 AM
Piseco Lake:

3.5 to 4 inches of snow overnight with very little icing. All roads, emergency services buildings and school have been plowed and are in good shape.

Posted February 7th at 6:55 AM
Kathy(St Johnsville):

Has anyone heard anything about flooding issues???

Posted February 7th at 7:25 AM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Well, it stayed freezing rain here. Woke up to 1/2 inch ice. My smaller trees have large branches sitting on the ground from the weight of the ice. Temp at 32.5.

Posted February 7th at 8:01 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Precip stayed all rain here during the overnight.Been snowing steadily for the past half hour.

Posted February 7th at 9:05 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Light snow with sun poking through from time to time - 33 Degrees

Posted February 7th at 10:32 AM
Matt Lanza:

Beaver River in Herkimer County a few miles north of Old Forge, receieved one foot of snow from this storm! 4.5" in Old Forge, 7.0" Stillwater

Posted February 7th at 12:09 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah the totals are quite impressive to our north.Looks like anywhere north of Old Forge into Vermont picked up 12-18".Hopefully we can pick up a moderate snowfall this weekend.Snow is just about gone here.

Posted February 7th at 12:21 PM
Andrea (Utica):

Any snow (other than the dustings we've been getting) look possible for the next week or so? Any trends for temps?

Posted February 7th at 1:01 PM
Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

Seasonal total still at 61 inches due to the fact that we didnt get anything but plain rain here last night. Lawn is more green than white right now but it would be nice right now to get a few inches this weekend.

Posted February 7th at 2:23 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Hiya all, just got a trace of snow since last night with probably .01-.02 inches of freezing rain. Not much to write home about. How is Sat.'s storm looking???

Posted February 7th at 2:42 PM
Matt Lanza:

New entry likely coming tonight, but just a quick summary:

- Saturday... still like the chances of thunderstorms, but we may be warm enough for a rain/snow mix. Even if it's all snow, no more than 1-3" or so.

- Lake Snow cranks up Saturday night and it could be very significant, especially on Sunday and Sunday night, and may be close to the Mohawk Valley. This may end up dumping quite a bit of snow.

- Possibility of another storm or overrunning event next week that would bring us snow, with a period, where again we have to watch for freezing rain or sleet. But it looks to stay cold enough next week to be all frozen precipitation.

More later.

Posted February 7th at 4:37 PM
Sandy:

Matt,
We will be traveling back to Utica from Pennsylvania on I90 this weekend. Would it be best to come home on Saturday or Sunday? Thanks!
Sandy
P.S. You guys do a phenomenal job!

Posted February 7th at 4:54 PM
Matt Lanza:

Sandy: Thank you! I would advise Saturday. The weather may not be wonderful Saturday, but there's a chance it's far worse on Sunday.

Posted February 7th at 5:04 PM
jon:

matt,so its possible that city of utica can get dumped on this weekend with les?also i know to early but can next weeks storm can that be a significant storm?

Posted February 7th at 5:09 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jon: I'll explain about the LES later. As for next week's storm, if it's too early, why would I be able to answer? ;) To be honest, it looks like a modest storm potential, nothing major at this point.

Posted February 7th at 5:15 PM
Mike(Leonardsville):

What else is new, another week, another ice storm. I have a feeling that 8 inches in one day in decemeber will top out as the high end this winter.

Posted February 7th at 5:50 PM
vin:

Matt: What is the outlokk in regards to temps for the nex t 7- 10 days?

Posted February 7th at 6:15 PM
randy vitullo:

Matt, Just to let you know (even after my last night's vent), you guys do a great job with the forecasting and the blog. You did say, the only thing for certain wan uncertainty. You also forecasted (last week, mind you) that Tuesday / Wednesday would be a rain event, perhaps ending with wet snow. You were correct on all fronts. That was a strange storm. One question: What did happen with the evaporational cooling effect?

Posted February 7th at 7:03 PM
Matt Lanza:

Vin: Cool, but not too cold.

Randy: Thanks sir! We've really been doing well for the most part this winter, so hopefully that continues. As for evaporational cooling. The only time you will see that happen is when there is a disparity between the temperature and the dewpoint...so for instance when the temperature is 34 and the dewpoint is 17. When the precip starts, the temperature will fall...but the atmosphere will moisten up, so the dewpoint will rise. Eventually they'll meet. So you could end up with like a temp of 28 and dew of 26....and around that time, the temperature drop will usually stop. It's called "evaporational" cooling because you need evaporation, which will only occur in dry air. The other night...we had temps in the mid to upper 30s and dews in the mid to upper 30s...not a situation where you'll get evaporational cooling. I'm not sure where you heard that because I know I never said anything about it, but it was definitely not a situation that it would occur in.

Posted February 7th at 7:49 PM
randy vitullo:

Evaporational cooling wasn't mentioned in the Tues/Wed forecast. It was just on my mind from previous situations and I was just wondering why it wasn't in play for this situation.. Thanks again. Hopefully, snow will be on the menu for the upcoming weekend and week. On another note, I can't believe that we didn't lose our snow. I skied part of the trail system this afternoon and I was amazed to see how much snow did not melt. The base held up pretty well in Holland Patent.

Posted February 7th at 9:14 PM
Matt Lanza:

Randy: That's good to hear!

New entry up!

Posted February 7th at 9:55 PM
courtney:

i think there shoul‘d be any school beacuse i hate school.and the snow so please dowe have to go to school please please i don‘t want to please please please please please please please
by courtney

Posted February 1st at 4:42 PM
courtney:

i smell smell smell smell smell smell smell so so so so sos so bad

Posted February 1st at 4:44 PM
courtney:

i love high school musical and hannah montana

Posted February 1st at 4:44 PM

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