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Our computer models have been "indecisive" over the last couple of weeks to say the least, but once again we are beginning to see more clearly what the weekend will hold.

Right now, Thursday evening, a cold front is crossing Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. Thunderstorms fired up this afternoon, even some severe weather, in the unstable air preceding this cold front. Thunderstorms and a general shield of rain are situated across much of Western New York and Pennsylvania - and they are headed our way. A stubborn temperature inversion has been present across CNY all day long, thanks to a low-level easterly wind. As a result, it's been really tough to break out of the low-level cool air, even as warmer temperatures have been filtering in aloft. Because of this lack of instability, we expect thunderstorms to weaken as they cross the local area through early Friday - though a rumble of thunder is still possible in spots, and we will see a healthy dose of rainfall, perhaps up to 1/2 inch.

The front will actually cross the area during the day on our Friday. We'll see the rain shut off as the boundary pushes through. With lots of low-level moisture we will likely contend with considerable cloudiness on Friday afternoon - but with any luck we may see a few peeks of sun. Temperatures will likely reach their highest, upper 60's or so, at midday before cooler weather works in behind the front later in the afternoon and evening.

Right now it appears that we will catch a break from the fast moving weather systems temporarily on Saturday. Slightly drier air will work in during the afternoon so morning clouds should give way to some sunshine for the second half of the day. 850 mb temperatures will be near 5 degrees - cool for the final days of May - so high temperatures will have a tough time getting much above the mid to upper 60's.

On Sunday a weak frontal boundary will approach from Canada with some rain showers. This will reinforce the cool air mass in place. Temperatures Sunday may very well wind up a few degrees lower than Saturday's afternoon temperatures.

A large-scale upper level low pressure area will continue to reside across eastern Canada through at least the middle of next week. This will make it tough to reach 80+ for a while. We'll continue to watch for changes as we see them.

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LM-Whitesboro:

So is this it? Will spring continue this way? We were lucky on the holiday weekend but paying for it now, 4 days of lousy weather, only to continue into next week. I don’t know about anyone else but I am completely over central ny weather. After months and months in the house, we are still stuck inside.

Posted May 29th at 3:19 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Wow the 12Z NAM looks pretty chilly Monday morning. It shows a hard freeze for much of the area. This is rediculous especially being the first day of June.

Posted May 29th at 3:48 PM
Adam Musyt:

Yeah. It’s just insane how so many Sundays (last one excluded) have wound up so turning out so badly. 850 mb temperatures are around minus 2 to minus 4. If this exact same weather setup had happened a month ago we’d be talking about some flurries on Sunday. As it stands now, 50’s seem like a pretty good bet. Incidentally, the record lowest daytime maximum temperature for Sunday is 58 degrees. That record is seriously in jeopardy.

If skies clear out on Sunday Night, frost is even going to be an issue in the Valley. GFS solution is less harsh than the WRF – but it is certainly something we’re going to keep an eye on.

Posted May 29th at 4:06 PM
brian (edmeston center):

Question: Although it may seem like a cool spring, in light of the potential record coming ahead (a low on Sunday) – What kind of temps are the average in the higher latitudes , i.e. Hudson Bay Canada and northward?

There seems to have been a trend in having a low Jet Stream in late May, early June over the past several years. Wondering how this is affecting temperatures in the moreso northern climates.

Posted May 29th at 4:22 PM
Adam Musyt:

Brian,

Northern Ontario temperatures are colder than seasonal averages. Moosonee on Hudson Bay normal high for today is 16 degrees Celsius with a normal low of 4 degrees.

It’s going to snow up there tomorrow.

Canadian Weather forecast from Environment Canada

Posted May 29th at 4:50 PM
Steve (east side Kyser Lake):

Hi Adam, WoW!! You know where Moosonee is?? That is so cool. When I was 17 & 18 (1971 & 1972) I was a certified white water river rafting, canoe & survival guide and I used to guide like 15 (14 to 16 yr olds from a YMCA sponsored program) from a starting place called White river Junction on the Missinabi River and end at Moosonee like 30 days later. Up there the river flows from south to north. There is absolutely NOTHING except natures beauty up there for miles and miles in any direction. And your right about the weather variables and the snow. Our annual trip was always planned for the end of July and all of August IF for no other reason, it is the warmest time of the year up there but trust me when I write this, although it would get into the 70’s during the day, the nighttime temps would always fall into the 20’s & low 30’s. MANY a morning everyone would wake up to frost or a light dusting of snow on everything but by 10 am with a bright sun, the temp would already be approaching 50 and 70 by noon.
I would have done it again when I was 19 but the YMCA camp stopped doing the trips when they could not attract enough young people to at least make the trip break even. It was a lot for fun for me as well as the kids but it was VERY expensive in 1970 dollars (about $1000) for each individual kid.
I just thought I would throw this out here seeing as how you mentioned Moosonee.
Good night, Steve

Posted May 29th at 11:21 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

This weather is absurd! If you want to really read something, check out the higher summits forecast for northern NY for Sunday. High temperature ranging from the upper 20’s to upper 30’s combined with 20-30mph winds!!!! Just sick for this time of year. After dealing with this, I won’t complain one bit if its 90+ every day for the rest of the Summer. This is April weather.

Posted May 30th at 12:13 AM
randy Vitullo :

What a horrible weather pattern. Any signs of it letting up by next weekend? The seven day looks like something you would expect for the end of April not May. I hope this is not an indication of our upcoming summer weather patterns…..

Posted May 30th at 6:41 AM
LM-Whitesboro:

I’m with you, Michael. I simply hate this. I did ask if this was the way it was going to be. I wish there was a long term forecast. Not that its accurate but is this trend going to continue? Its depressing!

Posted May 30th at 10:33 AM
Anthony:

Record warmth in Alaska this coming week – never a good sign for the Northeast. I cant believe I have to cover my garden again Sunday night. This is ridiculous. No summer weather the next 10 days, that is for sure.

Posted May 30th at 10:42 AM
Jill Reale (Utica):

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but for those who have plants outside, espeically in the valley, it looks like a hard freeze is in store for tomorrow night. Freeze watch has already been posted for tomorrow night for Oneida, Lewis, Madison, Otsego and Chenango Counties. Tomorrow is not going to be a washout by any means. Just scattered showers in the morning before the chilly air moves in by the afternoon. The record lowest high is still in jeopardy tomorrow. Weather looks dry for Monday before yet another cold front moves in the late afternoon evening with more showers. The front stalls to our south Monday night and several disturbances will ride along it through Wednesday. GFS is trying to have high pressure in by Thurs/Fri. As for temperatures, looks to be about 5-10 degrees below normal all week (besides tomorrow, where it will be 10-15 degrees below normal). 8-10 days out still looks below normal.

Posted May 30th at 4:39 PM
Jill Reale (Utica):

The record low for June 1st is 32 degrees.

Posted May 30th at 4:46 PM
Jill Reale:

Winds have already picked up to the west of the cold front. Buffalo has sustained winds of 22mph with gusts of 44mph. If you have any lawn furniture, it would be smart to tie it down or bring it in

Posted May 30th at 9:51 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Power outages are begining to spike as well out west. Erie County has some 2340 cutomers without power. Bring your hanging flower baskets in before this wind starts. Gusts near 50mph being reported.

Posted May 31st at 12:04 AM
brian (edmeston center):

This is at least the fourth May in a row with the same jet pattern. Last year Alaska was enjoying the same above normal temps this time of year. Its a jet that pushes south the eastern part of the US and is high over the western half.

This is also the second year that we had a heat wave in April, but I will go back and check for milder versions more subtle that may have been missed. Whatever the case, I was on the look out for a May like this this year and here it is.

Posted May 31st at 7:05 AM
WINTER (Forestport):

It looks like “WINTER” is the only hardcore winter weather lover. Are there any others out there?

Posted May 31st at 10:59 AM
DB:

this weather is terrible, when are we gonna see some warm weather stick around. it seems we get stuck in these same weather patterns year after year.

Posted May 31st at 11:43 AM
Jill Reale (Utica):

You think this weather is bad, light snow is being reported at Saranac Lake with an air temperature of 39 degrees, wind chill 31.

Posted May 31st at 5:12 PM
Jill Reale (Utica):

Also got a report that snow was falling in Turin at 3pm

Posted May 31st at 5:46 PM
js :

They had snow and sleet up in Jay today (near Wilmington where Santa’s Workshop is up north).

Posted May 31st at 6:52 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Heavy snow now in Saranac Lake with 1/4 mile visability.

Posted May 31st at 7:41 PM
Jill Reale:

I did some brief research on numerous frost/freezes over the last 40 years during the last week in May. These years were 1969, 1992, 1994, 2002, and 2008. All years, except 1992, had above normal temperatures for the months June-August.

Posted May 31st at 9:16 PM
WINTER (Forestport):

30 degrees was the low last nite.

Posted June 1st at 6:21 AM
MG(Point Rock):

I had 29 for last night’s low, but I don’t know when. It was 35 at 11 PM, and already back up to 35 by 6 AM.

Posted June 1st at 8:14 AM
Bill Kardas:

Numerous reports of frost all across the region this morning. Still waiting on the official numbers from Rome. Despite the chilly start, it will be in the upper 60s by the afternoon. No clear signs of summer just yet at least this week. Cold air in Eastern Canada isn’t going anywhere…and any storms that dive in from the northwest will really drive down the temperatures this week. These patterns are often difficult to break.

Posted June 1st at 8:45 AM
Mel (Westernville):

No frost here but thats not uncommon up on the hill – they might have it down at the bottom on the river bottom. I only had 34 for a low overnite Already up to 47 degress.

Posted June 1st at 8:56 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Down to 27.5 degrees this morning at 4:30 am. No real heavy frost, and it looks like the grass seedlings did not die!

Posted June 1st at 7:27 PM
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Posted May 24th at 2:50 AM

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