Summer's Not Over Yet!

Posted August 25th, 2010 by Adam Musyt. 19 comments

A weak surface cold front is kicking off some showers this evening across Western New York.  This front will edge eastward through the night and produce a couple of showers here in CNY.  Only scattered activity is expected - thankfully - considering the recent flooding.

 

On Thursday an upper level pocket of chilly air will be situated across the region.  The unstable conditions will lead to patchy cloudiness and a couple of scattered showers.  Breezy conditions are expected as well.  As 850 mb fall back to 7 degrees Celsius - we'll struggle to reach near 70 for a daytime high.  Couple that with extra cloudiness and a breeze and we expect one more Autumn-like day.  It won't last much longer though.

 

High pressure will build in for Friday, promoting sunshine.  As a large scale ridge builds across the Eastern US through the weekend and early next week, plenty of sunshine and a return to summertime warmth can be expected.  At this point, both weekend days are forecast to feature a good deal of sunshine and temperatures in the 80's.

 

The ridge should hold in place for much of next week - allowing for warm and dry conditions to continue for much of the rest of August.  It seems like an appropriate end to what has been a fantastic Meteorological Summer.  Enjoy!

 

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  1. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    We’ve got two tropical systems in the Atlantic also worth mentioning. Daneille (as of 5am this morning) was a category 2 hurricane, with winds sustained over 100mph. You can see a pretty nice eye on the satellite picture, a sign the storm is getting healthier. Earl also formed into a tropical storm, and will likely become a hurricane over the next few days.

    Posted August 26th at 9:10 AM

  2. kelly mohawk:

    Im getting married this Saturday.. Will these hurricanes change our weather for Saturday or will it stay dry??? Thanks getting nervious but thanks to anyone who can help

    Posted August 26th at 9:50 AM

  3. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Kelly & all,

    No need to worry…both of these hurricanes will stay out to sea. A HUGE area of high pressure will settle on the east coast and that will block any hurricane from hitting the coast.

    Posted August 26th at 10:35 AM

  4. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Picked up .40” since yesterday morning till now. Glad to see the dry sunny pattern coming. Perfect conditions for the State Fair!

    Posted August 26th at 10:41 AM

  5. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Bill you think we can get into the 90’s in this pattern. I know that the sun angle isn’t quite as intense as the heat wave in July…but it looks alot less humid this time around as well. Sort of like a trade off.

    Posted August 26th at 10:47 AM

  6. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Rob,

    The upper level air temperatures do support 90 on Sunday. Here’s the problem: we’re going to start out near 50; we’d need a 40 degree diurnal range. If this were spring I’d say “no sweat” but the sun angle is a lot lower and we’ve been wet lately. Even if it did find a way to hit 90 it wouldn’t feel the same as a 90 degree day in the middle of July because it will be less humid.

    Posted August 26th at 11:40 AM

  7. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Ok thanks. Probably won’t be far from some records. GFS even has +22C right out ahead of the front on Thursday. If that front stalls any…someone’s going to be in big trouble on the coast!

    Posted August 26th at 1:05 PM

  8. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Down to 47 this morning. Only the second time this summer I dipped into the 40’s.

    Posted August 27th at 7:41 AM

  9. Becky (West Leyden):

    Currently it’s 63, my low this morning was 43.

    I checked my rain total from the other day and it was 5.25 inches.

    The next five or six days look about as nice as you can get this time of year. (enjoy it will you can, it won’t be long before were talking about that unmentionable white stuff. Looks like we will have a cold front approach us Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

    Danielle is a Category 4 storm this morning. latest info places her at 26.9N 59.8W at a pressure of 946mb. As for TS Earl, He should reach Cat 1 sometime Sunday. I want to add to what Bill said, even though Danielle won’t impact the NEUS doesn’t mean rip currents won’t be an issue. If anyone is going to the coast this weekend please keep this in mind.

    Posted August 27th at 11:27 AM

  10. Norm (Floyd):

    A little chilly this morning, 48 here in Floyd.

    Posted August 28th at 7:21 AM

  11. Becky (West Leyden):

    My Overnight low was 44

    Posted August 28th at 8:44 AM

  12. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Models keeping creeping Earl towards the west with every run. This looks to be a close call for the coast. The “F” storm is right on its heels as well. Hit 47 again here for a low.

    Posted August 28th at 10:25 AM

  13. Becky (West Leyden):

    Yeah, Earl keeps moving west, however I think he will miss the coast. The models have Fiona (if she develops ) impacting somewhere on the SE coast.

    Danielle winds are down to 110 MPH, her location is 29.3N 60.5W and moving NNE

    Good news for LES fans, It looks like La Nina conditions will continue into the winter, It should hit its high point later this fall. The most likely outcome of this will be warmer than normal Fall season. This should keep Lake Ontario warm; which is already very warm (water temps in the lake are ranging mid 60’s to the low 70’s) It’s too early to tell. However, we could see some November LES snow…It could be a big winter on the Tug.

    Posted August 28th at 12:03 PM

  14. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Latest models show Earl grazing the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday evening. Still too far away but we will need to keep an eye on it as we head to the hoilday weekend. A cold front moves through Sat night, that might deflect the storm.

    Posted August 28th at 5:01 PM

  15. Rob (Whitesboro):

    That cold front looks pretty potent towards the end of the week. The GFS has us in the lower 90’s on Thursday with highs struggling to hit 60 in some areas on Saturday…with lake effect!

    Posted August 29th at 12:38 PM

  16. Becky (West Leyden):

    Had a heat wave overnight. this morning’s low was a balmy 49 ; )

    Earl winds are now at 75mph. He is forecasted to become a Cat3 storm. His position is 17.2N 58.4W moving to the west. Now that he’s got his act together he should be influenced by UL flow and start to turn to the WNW-NW sometime over the next 24-48 hours. The spaghetti models still show Earl missing the East Coast. However, it’s going to be a close call.

    Danielle’s winds are 85mph, her location is 35.5N 55.5W moving NE

    The disturbance east of Earl should be upgraded to a depression over the next few days. This is the one to watch, If it develops into Fiona.

    Posted August 29th at 12:39 PM

  17. Becky (West Leyden):

    Rob, I saw that too, Fall looks to be interesting

    Posted August 29th at 12:41 PM

  18. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Earl hasn’t made its move to the NW yet. We’ll have to keep an eye on that. NHC track brings it into New England by Friday night….similiar to the Euro track.

    Posted August 29th at 1:05 PM

  19. Jill Reale (Utica):

    new entry up

    Posted August 29th at 9:13 PM

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