Stormy pattern continues....

Posted February 24th, 2008 by Bill Kardas. 112 comments

Hope you had a chance to enjoy the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday featured at least partly sunny days. February has been a cloudy, wet, cold month so far. Our snowfall total for the month so far is 17.8". With the normal for the month being 18.8", we will go above normal by the end of the month.

Tuesday's storm
Over the weekend, the models have been (in my opinion) lousy at forecasting the development of our next winter storm. The major problem all weekend had to deal with how the models developed a secondary low pressure center off the coast. In winter storms, often what happens as a storm moves from land to sea, a secondary storm develops out ahead of the primary storm. There are many reasons for this that we won't touch upon today, but the short answer to why this happens is that it has to do with the temperature boundary between the cold land and warmer ocean. Jetstreams are also major players as well.

Why is this important?
The second storm has everything to do with how the whole system works. If one storm moved over us on Tuesday, we'd see snow changing to sleet as the warm front moved close by, and back over to snow as the center passed just to the south of us. Adding the coastal storm could potentially reduce the chance for sleet and cut down on the total potential snowfall. The second storm cuts the warm air flowing around the first storm. The problem with cutting down on the warm air is that precipitation also gets cut down as well (warm air rising over cool air causes precipitation). Cutting off the warm air in the mid levels also reduces the chance for sleet. The bottom line is that the strength of one low vs the other has everything to do with who gets the heavy precipitation and what areas may see ice.

There is some hope with some of the latest data though. A glance at the 00z NAM run does the best job so far in how this storm will evolve. Notice that the coastal storm forms and plays a much more significant role in the storm track and placement of the heavy snow. Check out how the land storm 'jumps' to sea (between 54-60 hours), as the primary storm transfers it's energy to the coast. The trend has been to make the secondary storm bigger. For the snow lovers that would be the ideal scenario: warm air cut off (less sleet), heavier snow with first wave, followed by Central New York in the deformation zone.

Notice how this whole foreacst discussion hasn't involved numbers? This is how forecasting works. Once you figure out the story line, it's more logical to start throwing out numbers and forecast accumulations. I've seen the models change several times this weekend and QPF has been all over the place. It would be irresponsible for me to put out numbers this early.

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Comments

  1. mike m ( binghamton):

    i like the 00z gfs, i think it has a pretty good handle on what is going to happen. first off it surpresses the warm air at the 850mb level, just barely sneaking it north of the NY/pa border. the one thing that may not bode so well for hvy snow in cny with the gfs is the placement of the deformation zone, which is now progged to be on a RME to BGM line east. but even still, if surface temps are cold enough during the day tuesday the gfs would get utica with 8-12 inches of snow through wednesday. and BGM with 4-7 inches, with some sleet or rain. a slight shift south, and a slightly faster take over by the coastal low, and CNY could be left right in the pivot zone, of heavy deformation snow. we shall see.

    Posted February 24th at 11:05 PM

  2. mike m (binghamton):

    after diving further into the gfs it is also important to note that it is showing some real good upper air dynamics to the storm. the gfs is forecasting a closed 850mb low to pass almost directly over CNY, this is a good sign, however we'd still want it a touch further east than its current position, but not bad. the GFS also closes off a 700mb low and tracks it just east of cny, once again the hvy snow in these types of storms tends to be just north or right along the 700mb low track. and to top it all off the gfs is showing strong 500mb vort near philadelphia, then up the coast, this is indicative of a strong fully closed off low forming on or near the coast, and currently the gfs has it over hartford CT, which really is not a bad spot to have it, i think currently the gfs is underdoing the intensity of the deformation zone over CNY, as many of the upper air dynamics support a much stronger area of lift over CNY, and thus heavier precip.

    Posted February 24th at 11:16 PM

  3. vinny(utica):

    so mike we can looking at heavy snow here in utica?you are thinking 8 to 12 inches?but if it tracks more east we could even do better than that?

    Posted February 24th at 11:21 PM

  4. Rob(whitesboro):

    GFS looks good to me.Actually the front end would drop plenty of snow as well.I just don't like the temps on the NAM.

    Posted February 24th at 11:25 PM

  5. mike m ( binghamton):

    vinny, yes id say i feel pretty confident that utica gets 6 inches of snow right now(by wed afternoon). the 8-12 inches was just what the latest gfs was indicating, not my forecast.however if the gfs and other models continue to follow suit well be in for some rather good snow. but also yes, if the storm ends up a bit further south(and east), and the coastal low strengthens a bit faster we COULD be looking at very significant amounts.

    Posted February 24th at 11:26 PM

  6. mike m ( binghamton):

    same here Rob, im still pretty worried about surface temps,of course we cannot see 2meter temps on the gfs(at least idont know how to) so with colder upper levels, maybe surface temps remain below frz all day tuesday?

    Posted February 24th at 11:30 PM

  7. Bill Kardas:

    Mike,

    Both NAM and GFS show snow changing to rain Tuesday afternoon. It would be tough to get 8-12" with any rain mixing in.

    Posted February 24th at 11:39 PM

  8. mike m ( binghamton):

    bill, would you say that however via the latest 00z gfs, higher elevations could remain all snow?

    Posted February 24th at 11:45 PM

  9. Rob(whitesboro):

    Well we still got one more major run to go.Hopefully we'll trend a little cooler by 12z.It's just to borderline still.I bet NWS will hold off on headlines untill noon.

    Posted February 24th at 11:57 PM

  10. Matt Lanza:

    Mike: Also, the 850 mb low center should ideally be to your south. The heaviest snows in that situation (an 850 low passing over CNY) would fall in Ontario and the North Country/Adirondacks. We're VERY much on the fence with this.

    Posted February 25th at 12:01 AM

  11. mike m ( binghamton):

    i think it is time to make a preliminary call; the way i see it, snow will begin late monday night and continue through noon tuesday, by this time some of the valleys esp south of utica could mix with rain or sleet, this mix period would last through 7pm(with a dry slot possible too), perhaps reaching the mohawk valley for sometime. after 7pm temps aloft, and at the surface will begin to fall, as the storm winds up just east of us, perhaps across ct, or mass. and precip would start to increas in intensity as a deformation zone developes over us. mod to hvy snow would continue all night, before tapering off,rather slowly to light to mod snow by mid morning weds, then finally just flurries wed afternoon. as for accumulations this is how i see it. 2-4 inches through 7pm tues in valley locations south of route 20 more like 3-5 inches in valleys north of route 20 to the mohawk valley. then 4-6 inches in the lower elevations of the north country. id say 3-6 inches in elevations above 1400 feet south of route 20. with 4-7 inches in elvations above 1400 feet between route 20 and the thurway. with 5-9 inches possible in elvations above 1500 feet in the north country. now tuesday night, a little easier. id say a general 4-8 inches south of route 20(maybe slightly elevation dependent still). with 5-10 inches for mohawk valley, and 5-10 for north county too. to sum it all up; total accumulations are as follows. south of route 20 and below 1400 feet. 4-10 inches, south of route 20 above 1400 feet, 6-14 inches. between route 20 and thruway, below 1400 feet(includes mohawk valley)5-14 inches,and above 1400 feet,7-15 inches. north of thruway below 1400 feet 8-15 inches. above 1400 feet 9-18 inches. notice the rather large spread of accumulations, as it is still early in the game. map coming soon, if you dont want to strain your eyes reading all that. lol

    Posted February 25th at 12:09 AM

  12. mike m ( binghamton):

    yea, deffinetly on the fence still. as everything passes directly over CNY.i have a gut feeling after looking at the data, and what the models are doing that we will get that shift further south. i think the models are pulling everything togther too fast over the ohio valley, thus causing a stronger primary low; i dont think everything comes together until it hits the coastal plain.

    Posted February 25th at 12:11 AM

  13. mike m ( binghamton):

    check out these maps. first one is my own future radar of what we could be seeing in cny at 10 pm tues. http://image62.webshots.com/562/0/51/69/2074051690099650872DPNLDZ_fs.jpg
    and this is the preliminary snow map.
    http://image58.webshots.com/558/6/7/84/2772607840099650872YZfsDa_fs.jpg

    well im off to bed

    Posted February 25th at 12:28 AM

  14. mike m ( binghamton):

    euro continues to look, good. it tracks it near DC, then up the coast. we are starting to get out of range on the euro. it is time for the gfs(and maybe NAM, if it can get its act together). maybe one more run, tomorrow 12z. i should really go to bed now lol.

    Posted February 25th at 1:45 AM

  15. Matt (CB):

    Well at 3:15 am it is 6 degrees out under clear skies.Nice to see that the forcast is all over the place yet again as another storm approaches.
    Was out and about sunday and really enjoyed the sunshine.Not looking forward to this new system and especially the temps after it blows through. 25 days till spring.

    Posted February 25th at 3:23 AM

  16. Mike(leonardsville):

    Mike M it's pretty much pointless to make a snowmap for this storm. Look at all the other storms this winter, you start high and then you get a marginal storm when it occurs. I know you like your snow now but heck it's almost March and i'm looking forward to spring. I'm not sure that I want to drive home from work Tuesday with slush covered roads. I say a rough guess is that we will get 5 or 6 inches at the very most.

    Posted February 25th at 5:05 AM

  17. John from Cold Brook:

    Mike M: I think that at this point it is irresponsible to make a snow map. Also, when you do this, it confuses people because it leads them to believe you are the meteorologist. My take on the storm is a good 4-8 inches north and a wintery mix everywhere else.

    Posted February 25th at 6:34 AM

  18. CJ:

    mike m don't let the ones of far lesser talent and hypicritacal ones discourge you from being yourself.

    And as far as my forecast. Yes we will continue to have increasing daylight for another 4 months.

    Posted February 25th at 6:50 AM

  19. Brad (Oneonta):

    We are well within 24 hrs from the start of this storm....any projections/snow map yet? Winter Storm watch issued all over, just curious what team thinks

    Posted February 25th at 8:25 AM

  20. Andy Forestport:

    NWS says 3-5 inches for just about all of Central New York

    Posted February 25th at 8:33 AM

  21. Josh (Salisbury):

    A good set up or substantial snow I think the weather team is right on with their projections.. Ill be riding all day Wednesday!!
    Cheers..

    Posted February 25th at 8:34 AM

  22. Jonathan (Oriskany):

    The storm itself is one thing...the set up seems favorable when the storm pulls out for someone to get some decent lake effect as well. I know the team is busy trying to nail down the particulars of the storm, but was curious on preliminary thoughts about the potential lake effect set up.

    Posted February 25th at 8:45 AM

  23. Truthsayer:

    Well this should be interesting .... lets see who is more accurate WKTV or Mike M ...he got his snow map up before them .we shall see.. . mike m that takes a lot of knowledge to do what ya did and i at least tip my hat to you for doing it. As for my forcast i see a large Nimo bill in our futures.. :)

    Posted February 25th at 9:04 AM

  24. Matt Lanza:

    I'll obviously reserve full judgement until I'm in today and looking over all the data. But, one thing that appears to be interesting and has gone unstated to this point. Sleet and freezing rain do not appear to be significant players in this storm. It will be snow, rain or a mix of both. The air mass is too warm for sleet and there is no Arctic high in place for freezing rain. Just a thought.

    Andy: That NWS forecast is for tomorrow...not including tomorrow night/Wednesday morning.

    Posted February 25th at 9:14 AM

  25. Matt Lanza:

    And, as an FYI...the latest NAM does continue to insist we change to rain. This will be yet another difficult forecast, but the only good news is that the mixing issues shouldn't cause major problems this time in terms of ice.

    Posted February 25th at 9:16 AM

  26. MG(Point Rock):

    Andy, I think that 3-5 inch forecast from NWS is for Tuesday, and does not include any snow that might fall Tuesday night or Weds.

    Posted February 25th at 9:18 AM

  27. Bob Jones:

    Truthsayer,
    I could be an English major and throw out forecast numbers. Doesn't mean you should take me seriously.

    Posted February 25th at 9:24 AM

  28. Ann:

    Mike M nice job with the maps that you did. Any new thoughts? Matt Lanza, when will you and the team be putting up a map of the upcoming storm?

    Posted February 25th at 9:28 AM

  29. Brad (Oneonta):

    I saw Mike M map as well, but I doubt Oneonta will get 14-20" of snow. We are supposed to change over to rain for all day on Tuesday. Unless I am underestimating the back end snow I just dont see that map accurate atleast for here.

    Posted February 25th at 9:36 AM

  30. Matt Lanza:

    Brad: No I think you're right.

    Ann: Bill and Adam are both in for the Noon show, so they can collectively decide how they want to go. Sometimes you don't get enough data in for Noon to feel confident, but other days you're ready to roll. Regardless, even if I'm not ready, I kind of have to put something out at 5 PM, so at the very least, look for it then...but check Noon.

    Posted February 25th at 9:46 AM

  31. Rob(whitesboro):

    Still showing a little rain but definitely trended colder.Very intense banding to our north and west.NAM spits 12-18" that way.Good enough for warning criteria for most of us.

    Posted February 25th at 9:47 AM

  32. Bill Kardas:

    I still don't think we can say that one particular model is handling this situation correctly. We're waiting for the new 12z GFS to provide some insight. What baffles us is that the 00z NAM storm track was further south then the 12z, but the forecast sounding was warmer. That didn't make any sense to us.

    Posted February 25th at 10:00 AM

  33. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    There appears to be some colder air in Canada that is associated with a little clipper in Michigan. Will that play any effect in keeping us colder??? Also I noticed on the NAM at the 39-45 hour time frame temps in the upper 30s. Do you guys think that is possible at night if the low tracks to our SE??

    Posted February 25th at 10:07 AM

  34. kelly:

    Just curious where do you all find Mike M's map

    Posted February 25th at 10:12 AM

  35. Bob Jones:

    Check out my snow map

    Posted February 25th at 10:14 AM

  36. kelly:

    Well that is not good for the valley I live in Mohawk and was hoping for a snow day either Tuesday or Wednesday.

    Posted February 25th at 10:16 AM

  37. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    ITs funny when people who actually are meteorologists, or in school to be, bring up their ideas and thoughts of a storm, and then get ridiculed by it. This is a weather blog for us all to share our ideas and weather when it is happening. Not just a WKTV blog. Not just a blog for the WKTV crew to come on and say this is what we are getting FINAL. Why would people want that. Why would people openly ridicule Mike, Tony, Rob, or anyone else that simply want to add to the discussion???

    I applaud fellow posters for all their insight and advice. Without them I would have never started watching the models. I applaud the WKTV crew for the great things that they do. But it really gets annoying (to the point that I really don't want to post here) when people ridicule others. In my opinion everyone here should stick to the serious side of weather.

    Anyway 12Z GFS in yet?????

    Posted February 25th at 10:21 AM

  38. Josh (salisbury):

    Mike M's snow map is in one of his posts above. You need to copy and paste the link to get the map...

    Here it is:
    http://image62.webshots.com/562/0/51/69/2074051690099650872DPNLDZ_fs.jpg
    and this is the preliminary snow map.
    http://image58.webshots.com/558/6/7/84/2772607840099650872YZfsDa_fs.jpg

    Posted February 25th at 10:22 AM

  39. Ann:

    Jeff, very well said. This blog should be for sharing knowledge, not ridiculing.

    Posted February 25th at 10:34 AM

  40. Anonymous:

    Just need to say a few things. First of all, this is a great blog and I appreciate everyone's input and effort in improving forecasting. However, there is one thing I cannot stand, and I'm sure others feel this way. That is, when people get on this blog, read the forecast - which could be snow or lack of snow, and then spread there opinion about how ready they are for spring or vice versa. Then, those same people will continue with comments such as "I know you like your snow now but heck it's almost March and i'm looking forward to spring. I'm not sure that I want to drive home from work Tuesday with slush covered roads. I say a rough guess is that we will get 5 or 6 inches at the very most." Wishful thinking isn't going to make the weather change just because you don't like how the forecast sounds. Seriously, don't let your own personal preferences taint your forecast prediction to match up to what you want to happen. Here's a thought, don't live in central new york and plan on an easy winter. Even though these past few winters have been extremely easy, everyone is spoiled because they used to be a heck of a lot worse. I could keep going but it'd be pointless. Just keep your worthless opinions about how you want the weather to be to yourself.

    Posted February 25th at 10:34 AM

  41. Josh (salisbury):

    Well said anonymous and Jeff!! I agree this should be an infrmation exchange where you can bounce your ideas off people to see what they think and what their reasoning for an outcome is.... It is too bad that some people interject their irrelevant opinions and then bust on those who are trying to get something out of this blog. Then there are the people too immature to realize that some posts, with amounts, are ideas towards an outcome and not the word of god... So when someone says 4-8 and they get 2.5", they think that whoever came up with that forcast is an idiot... Maybe those people should stick to the weather channel if they can't handle this blog!!

    Enough with that, more with the storm Mike M. and the weather crew..

    Posted February 25th at 10:44 AM

  42. Lenny Jones (No Relation to Bob):

    Jeff,
    Perhaps it's good for aspiring meteorologists to get razzed just a little bit. After all, no doubt Bill, Matt, Jill and Adam have to put up with plenty of comments when forecasts don't pan out exactly as planned.

    Posted February 25th at 11:08 AM

  43. Mel (Westernville):

    Interesting article that North America has the greatest amount of snowcover since 1966: http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=332289

    Posted February 25th at 11:09 AM

  44. Todd (New Hartford):

    Sorry if I missed this being posted, but the NWS has a Winter Storm Watch with the following forecast( I am paraphrasing!!)-

    Snow arriving just before daybreak on Tuesday morning, then temperatures rising into the 30's on Tuesday so the snow won't affect the roads much. By evening, cold air will come into the picture and the storm will intensify to the east with a chance for heavy snow. This will combine with lake effect that will develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday. They say there is still uncertainty for the path of the snow and with how much cold air will come into the picture Tuesday night to help with significant snow. They say there is a potential for 7 inches or more and that 1 foot+ is not out of the question.

    I am sure those totals will vary depending on exact locations, but that is what the NWS is saying in a nutshell as of 8:02 this AM. Sounds like we could be in for something somewhere in central NY.....another case of a big "wait and see" scenario. Good luck to the KTV staff in figuring out yet another tough one!!

    Posted February 25th at 11:09 AM

  45. James (Sauquoit):

    Does anybody have an idea of when this thing is supposed to start?

    Posted February 25th at 11:12 AM

  46. Rob(whitesboro):

    Whatever happens there is going to be some very heavy snow in and around our area.Looks to be some decent banding on both models.In my opinion I think it'll be heavy enough to keep us (valley)all snow.We certainly have a decent shot at a significant snowfall (7"+) when all is said and done.

    Posted February 25th at 11:15 AM

  47. Bill Kardas:

    Adam and I just put together our first snowfall forecast map for this storm. It takes us through tomorrow evening, to give people an idea on how the evening commute will be. Click here . This is not a forecast for the entire event, just until 7PM. The real heavy stuff arrives tomorrow evening and tomorrow night, where we could easily pick up several more inches.

    Posted February 25th at 11:41 AM

  48. vinny(utica):

    rob,is that from latest models that you have seen to detemine that?that would be great if it is all snow.i do beleive this will be one drawn out event lasting a while.

    Posted February 25th at 11:42 AM

  49. MJ (Trenton):

    I would also support most comments by "anonymous" and "Jeff".
    I have to admit though, I did get a chuckle out of "Bob Jones" forecast map. Although it was not very serious, it was weather-related, a cynical reflection on recent weather events. Bobs predicted snowfall may very well verify closer than some "experts".
    That said, I think most of us here understand the difference between WKTV, NWS and "amateur" forecasts. I have no problem with any of them. If I didn't find any value in what was being said here, I wouldn't be here. It does become frustrating when the extremists opine with their snow-lover vs. snow-hater bickering.
    With no disrespect intended toward the snow-haters, got my fingers crossed to finally get a good dumping, 12+ maybe?

    Posted February 25th at 11:44 AM

  50. vinny(utica):

    bill,it is then possible that after we get the heavy snow tomorrow night we might possibly see a foot if not more?and also from the amounts you have through evening it looks like you think there might not be a mix.just snow.

    Posted February 25th at 11:46 AM

  51. Rob(whitesboro):

    Vinny a blend of both models would drop heavy snow right on us.I use 10:1 ratios for an average.A little evap cooling and wooolah!

    Posted February 25th at 11:46 AM

  52. James (Sauquoit):

    So this thing probably wont start until about 7am or so tomorrow am?

    Posted February 25th at 11:49 AM

  53. Adam Musyt:

    Hello all. Bill and I just put together our snow map based on the latest trends. Sometimes (as some of you know) it's like pulling teeth to get a good chance to look at the 12Z GFS before air-time. It looks like a roughly 6 AM to 8 AM start time with the snow. Snow looks to continue through the day and perhaps fall heavily at times in the afternoon. If you believe the NAM, there may be a period of sleet or rain in the Mohawk Valley and points south for a time after 7 PM before the storm winds up and pulls away. GFS implies mostly snow and a slightly earlier start time than NAM.

    There will likely be some additional accumulations from the backlash snow tomorrow night and early Wednesday...at least across parts of the area - but that's getting a little ways out and there remains some questions remain as to who gets how much.

    The map should do a good job of conveying what we're up against for the next 24-30 hours or so.

    Posted February 25th at 11:59 AM

  54. Bill Kardas:

    While the chance for rain mixing in has diminished, I can't rule it out completely. I still think there's more than a 30% chance of this happening for a period of time (specifically late tomorrow afternoon & early evening) from the Mohawk Valley south. However, even if it does change over, it shouldn't last for more than an hour or two. The real heavy snow is expected to move through overnight, with an additional 3-6" or more possible. What has been consistent with most models is the placement of the heaviest band of snow. The jackpot snows will be north and west of town, from Rochester-Syracuse through the Adirondacks extending beyond Montreal. These areas will likely see well over a foot of snow. For our viewing area, parts of Lewis, Northern Herkimer, & Hamilton Counties all fall into that category.

    Posted February 25th at 12:03 PM

  55. Matt HP:

    Bob,

    Your snowfall map is awesome!
    I couldn't stop laughing.

    Posted February 25th at 12:43 PM

  56. Matt Lanza:

    Mel: Interesting article about hemishpheric snow cover. Just a couple of quick things to point out. First, the facts within the article are indeed correct. That said, the snow cover in the N Hemisphere for January was its greatest since 1966. All of that info can be confirmed here. It has been cold this winter in the Northern Hemisphere and this has been a tremendous winter for many. But, this article, while factual correct, is clearly spun against global warming and should be taken with a grain of salt, not because it tries to refute global warming, but because it is an opinion column, so it's natural biased. This winter bucks the trend of previous ones, but, as the writer even says, one winter does not a climate make. If we can put together a globally cooler than normal spring and summer, then we're on to something. This article isn't as ridiculously biased as others I've seen, but read it with caution. Thanks for posting this Mel!

    Posted February 25th at 12:49 PM

  57. Matt HP:

    My opinion on global warming; Climate Change is ultimately what is going on. The earth has gone through this change several times in its exsistance. However global warming is a factor that has its own impact upon climate change. This impact causes the climate to change faster than it has in the past because of the amount of impact global warming has on the climate.

    Second note. Bill does that line you draw between the accumulations through the county. Where the 6-10 and 3-6 meet. Would you say the thruway is a good way to indicate that line? Specifically Oneida County

    Posted February 25th at 1:02 PM

  58. Mat Lanza:

    Matt...looks to be a little north of there. I will just say that if anyone is ever on the fence about a snow map and your town lies near the border range...expect around wherever those amounts meet... so in this instance, around 6".

    Posted February 25th at 1:06 PM

  59. Mel (Westernville):

    Thanks for the feedback Matt. I happened to see the article while surfing for something else - definitely did not want to open a can of worms - especially on the eve of a signifigant winter storm, as I know we have seen different opinions on the global warming subject on the blog before. I to got a good chuckle out of Bob's snowfall map! Keep up the great work Matt, Adam, Bill & Jill.

    Posted February 25th at 1:12 PM

  60. Bill Kardas:

    Our new 12z model data is in from our in house model. Here's what it projects for snowfall through Wednesday morning. Notice how the heaviest snow is north and west of town. Also, the model may be hinting at some sort of valley minimum in the snowfall due to snow mixing with rain. I think it might be a bit overdone, but if that verifies a lot of Mohawk Valley snow lovers aren't going to be happy.

    Posted February 25th at 1:36 PM

  61. Mel (Westernville):

    Bill/Matt - any thought on LES for Wednesday? What is the project wind direction looking like?

    Posted February 25th at 1:54 PM

  62. Bill Kardas:

    Mel,

    Not for our viewing area. On Wendesday, winds will be NNW, meaning areas directly south of Lake Ontario will be threatened.

    Posted February 25th at 2:04 PM

  63. Kevin (Southern Seneca County):

    Winter Storm Warnings are up:

    NYZ009-016>018-036-037-260415-
    /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0003.080226T1100Z-080227T2300Z/
    /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0004.080226T1100Z-080227T1700Z/
    NORTHERN ONEIDA-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-
    SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
    315 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008

    ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 12 PM EST
    WEDNESDAY...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 12 PM EST
    WEDNESDAY.

    SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY AND
    CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
    ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ON
    TREATED SURFACES. HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
    WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW CONTINUES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES.

    A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
    EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
    IMPOSSIBLE.

    STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL-HAZARDS OR YOUR FAVORITE
    LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BINGHAMTON.

    PLEASE REPORT SNOW OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
    BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

    Posted February 25th at 3:22 PM

  64. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Kevin, you beat me too it!

    Posted February 25th at 3:23 PM

  65. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    HMMMM....That is different then the one I got for Chenango....Ours says 7-10 total by Wednesday morning.

    Posted February 25th at 3:25 PM

  66. Kevin (Southern Seneca County):

    I noticed the slight difference too since I am near the border of Tompkins county and they have a total of 7-10 as well.

    Posted February 25th at 3:26 PM

  67. Matt Lanza:

    Jeff: Being that you're further south, closer to the changeover, that's why you're less than the rest of us.

    Posted February 25th at 3:29 PM

  68. Matt Lanza:

    Albany has also upgraded our pertinent counties to Winter Storm Warnings

    Posted February 25th at 3:34 PM

  69. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Well that may be good, only because I don't think where I live we will switch over. I really think esp with it starting early so no sun during the day, that we will stay all snow where I live.

    Posted February 25th at 3:34 PM

  70. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    The warning for Herkimer County is calling for 8-16" inches with the highest amounts across the higher elevations. What also interests me is that they don't even hint at the possibility of mixing in the warning or in the forecast for my area. Could this really be an all snow event, lol! I don't think so!

    Posted February 25th at 3:37 PM

  71. vinny(utica):

    matt does that mean maybe your inhouse model was wrong?the 12z model.

    Posted February 25th at 3:40 PM

  72. Matt Lanza:

    To elaborate, Albany upgraded everyone except Montgomery...they're still under a watch...borderline warning/advisory level there. Formulating thoughts and working with Bill. I already have a rough map drawn. I'll post details soon.

    Posted February 25th at 3:41 PM

  73. Matt Lanza:

    Preliminary thoughts...map to come soon:

    South of a Cooperstown-Norwich-Ithaca line... 3-6", with potential for higher amounts if a.) rain does not mix in or b.) storm track is a little further south than progged. I am leaning toward high end here, with an average of 4-6" likely...and higher amounts possible.

    Mohawk Valley... 6-10", chance for a little mixing. Includes entire Valley, Dolgeville, S Oneida, Madison, N Otsego (Rt 20 corridor). Higher amounts possible if tomorrow night's deformation zone sets up further south and east than progged.

    North Country & Adirondacks: 10-15", no mixing. Includes Boonville, Old Forge, Camden. Highest amounts in Lewis County, Old Forge area. Potential for much higher amounts south of Lake Ontario in Oswego, Caygua and Wayne Counties.

    Map coming soon.

    Posted February 25th at 3:59 PM

  74. Matt HP:

    Matt is that through 7pm Tuesday or total?

    Posted February 25th at 4:05 PM

  75. Kevin (Southern Seneca County):

    Out here just a bare ground and only about 29 inches for the whole year, moved from Rome NY during the summer so I am used to snow during the winter not this. Here's hoping for some snow finally LOL

    Posted February 25th at 4:05 PM

  76. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Just 3-6" hmmmm...... I still believe it will be higher. I think 3-6 for Tuesday. But I believe that Tuesday night there will be heavy snow for all including the south.

    Posted February 25th at 4:06 PM

  77. Matt Lanza:

    I do have to reiterate. The potential definitely exists for this storm to overperform. I do think we'll end up bumping up the 3-6" totals later tonight or tomorrow morning. I just wanted to put that out there now as a precaution. I do feel this may end up being the best snow event of the season, outside the LES belts.

    Posted February 25th at 4:06 PM

  78. Matt Lanza:

    Matt: That's a storm total through 7 PM Wednesday.

    Posted February 25th at 4:07 PM

  79. Matt HP:

    Thanks Matt!

    Posted February 25th at 4:09 PM

  80. mike m ( binghamton):

    wow i certainly missed alot...but i had to go to school. all i have to say is, if want to ridicule my maps and such go ahead, perhaps you will be right, perhaps ill be right, we wont know until the storm is over. i just really enjoy the challenge of trying to make a snow forecast. and for everyone who "stuck up for me" it is not necessary, but thank you. looking at the latest models, im not quite sure my amounts will verify that are on the snow map, mainly due to the fact that the models have less, qpf, and less wrap around moisture. ill put out my final snow map in a few minutes; and that will be what im sticking too!!!

    Posted February 25th at 4:15 PM

  81. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Sorry Matt...Didn't mean to offend. I was just confused as to the map till 7pm tom showing 3-6 then you saying 3-6 total. again sorry.

    Posted February 25th at 4:24 PM

  82. Matt Lanza:

    The official WKTV snow forecast is here. New blog entry will come later tonight.

    Posted February 25th at 4:31 PM

  83. Matt Lanza:

    Jeff: No offense taken whatsoever...sorry if I gave that impression. I actually posted that before seeing what you wrote!

    Posted February 25th at 4:33 PM

  84. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Just took a good look, looks like the SREF is pretty impressive. Everything right now model wise sets the area up nicely for a great snow. Now if we can just keep a few degrees cooler and crank that coastal low up a bit sooner we can get a whallop!!

    Posted February 25th at 4:36 PM

  85. mike m ( binghamton):

    to brad in oneonta, if you look closely i actually had oneonta in the 3-7 inch range, that 14-20 was strictly for the highest elevations in the catskills. matt, i really like you snow forecast, looks very good to me. as you mentioned i think there is still the possibilities that everyone right down to the PA border may have to be bumped up into the 6-10 inch range. also upon further review, i am going to stick to my snow map, i like it as of right now.

    Posted February 25th at 4:37 PM

  86. Kevin (Southern Seneca County):

    I will gladly take the snowfall on Matt's map considering how little we have gotten this year.

    Posted February 25th at 4:39 PM

  87. Anonymous:

    Folks,

    I'm sorry I ranted about the spring lovers. The truth is that I'm a hermit and I really don't like it when people go outside and make noise. Also, when I actually started reading this blog and stopped writing things based on my feelings, I realized that most people on this blog root for snow. Thanks for hearing me out.

    Posted February 25th at 4:45 PM

  88. Matt Lanza:

    A couple additional thoughts. The NAM is overdone in QPF. We're not going to get as much precip as the NAM spits out. We never do...it always overestimates. The trade off for that, is that the NAM is also too warm. While mixing may be an issue as close as the I-88 corridor or even a hair further north, it's not going to be enough to destroy snowfall amounts. That said, if you took the GFS verbatum, we get 9" at Rome. So I'm comfortable putting a 6-10" out there for most of us. And both the GFS and NAM suggest the heavy deformation zone snows will be to our north and west, and based on my experience, this happens frequently, so the 10-15" call seems reasonable for Lewis, N Oneida, N Herkimer and Hamilton. Heavier amounts just south of Lake Ontario are from lake enhancement on NE-NNE winds during the storm. Snowfall ratios appear to be 10-12:1 for the event, with 9-11:1 south of Rt 20. Snow ratios may be 13-14:1 up north. This may not sound like much to you, but this makes a big difference when averaged out over time.

    Posted February 25th at 4:46 PM

  89. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt, did you notice that the gfs has backed off on hvy deformation zone snowfall, in favor of more of a light to moderate snowfall tuesday night? do u beleive this? with a low tracking from NYC to hartford to boston wouldnt we do quite well on the back side?

    Posted February 25th at 4:56 PM

  90. Matt Lanza:

    Mike: Not sure what you're seeing, but it appears to me the GFS has stayed the course regarding back end snow. The GFS is also a lower resolution model that does not always pick up on specifics. But in regard to placement, it has been rock solid consistent placing the heavy deformation zone snows north and west of Utica.

    Posted February 25th at 5:09 PM

  91. jon:

    is 6 to 10 a good bet,any way we get into any higher amounts here in utica?6 to 10 would be great though.

    Posted February 25th at 5:12 PM

  92. Matt Lanza:

    Jon: Possible that we get into higher amounts, depending on how exactly the lake responds on Wednesday. But lean toward 6-10".

    Posted February 25th at 5:15 PM

  93. an:

    Matt,
    What time to you see the mod to heavy snow (SN to SN+)coming into the the syracuse-utica thruway corridor. I see estimates as early as noon tomorrow. Thanks for all the great work on these blogs.

    Posted February 25th at 5:18 PM

  94. Matt Lanza:

    The biggest concern I have right now is temperatures. We're shooting for a high of 34, and I think we'll be close to 30-32 through tomorrow night. Not good for the fluffy powder, which is why I'm being somewhat conservative.

    Posted February 25th at 5:18 PM

  95. Matt HP:

    Anonymous,

    I think the biggest thing on this blog is that people do not hope for snow on a daily basis. Alot of people would like spring to come and get warmer weather. Its more the idea that when we do get the oppertunity for a big storm. Everyone on here likes to make the best of it. I like snow storms, although I too wouldn't mind spring and the leaves because I love to go camping and I could think of nothing more than getting out of the house and being outdoors in warmer weather. But if were getting have messy conditions and bad weather why not hope for the best we can get. Its not like if we get 3 inches or 13 inches that it is going to make it summer any quicker. Its still gonna be cold.

    I hope that makes sense

    Posted February 25th at 5:20 PM

  96. Jim (Croton on Hudson):

    Matt, I noticed that the team has not made any adjustment for the higher terrain in Northern Fulton County, which is interesting given that elevation is expected to make a significant difference in accumulations, and with previous storms your team has often adjusted for higher accumulations in that area. Is this intentional?

    Posted February 25th at 5:23 PM

  97. Matt Lanza:

    An: Looking like Noon would be safe. Snow will become much steadier after Noon tomorrow.

    Posted February 25th at 5:24 PM

  98. Matt Lanza:

    Jim: For the sake of simplicity, I am not adjusting for higher terrain. There always are higher amounts in those areas on the hilltops. So I'm just keeping it simple for now. I could easily see 12" or more in some of the terrain of Fulton County. Just as higher amounts are possible anywhere that has terrain.

    Posted February 25th at 5:28 PM

  99. Andy:

    is it gonna snow till weds night?

    Posted February 25th at 5:33 PM

  100. Matt Lanza:

    Andy: Yes.

    Posted February 25th at 6:04 PM

  101. Barb:

    I read this blog every day, and it is all interesting. I don't get the technical parts...although I am s-l-o-w-l-y learning a little! I enjoy the blog and it sometimes feels like a "special" group. But every time someone makes fun of another, I am very uncomfortable. I think those with their own equipment and knowledge must enjoy the challenge of predicting, but I also think the blog should be for those of us that are just interested in weather, and ask those "dumb" questions. To me, it is important where the roads are icy or slick, if I have to drive on them! I appreciate the feedback. And I love the snow, I just don't want to have to drive in the white outs we get where I have to drive! I'm not looking for anyone being put down...or reading those negative comments directed to the WKTV crew, etc. Everyone can have their opinion, just don't put others down for their opinion (or predictions)! It spoils the fun.

    Posted February 25th at 6:12 PM

  102. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt, the placemnet of the deformation zone is certainly rock solid, however the intensity of it seems to have decreased, at least on the NAM nad gfs. here is an exceprt from bgms forecast discussion..."ALL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT WITH THE IDEA OF HEAVY
    PRECIPITATIN IN A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM
    LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
    NW FLOW WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
    INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY DURING THAT TIME. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
    CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN AREAS FAVORED BY NW FLOW...
    MAINLY THE FINGER LAKES AND UPPER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY

    Posted February 25th at 6:26 PM

  103. Matt Lanza:

    Mike: It looked solid yesterday and over the weekend. It still looks like a solid deformation zone. It just seems as though it's not going to be a ton of heavy snow, but rather light snow that adds up with time. Great for snow lovers and easier on road crews...although they're going to be putting in OT this week. This isn't the most intriguing storm we've ever seen, but it should be a good one.

    Posted February 25th at 6:31 PM

  104. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt,can certainly agree with that.how confident are you feeling about raising amounts across the southern viewing area?

    Posted February 25th at 6:36 PM

  105. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Ok we have all talked about the good stuff, now how about the bad. What is the bust factor Matt???? Also there was major talk and seasonal trends, and model indications of a major dry slot is that still in the works??

    Posted February 25th at 6:39 PM

  106. Matt:

    Matt L.: What do you expect for school closings wed. morning? Not that I will hold you to it :)

    Posted February 25th at 6:44 PM

  107. Matt Lanza:

    Mike: I'm about 50/50 right now. A lot will depend on the 00Z runs and radar trends at that point.

    Jeff: The good news? No bust factor because of ice. Here's where we could bust.

    1.) Dry slot could be stronger than anticipated. That is definitely a possibility. In that instance, the back end snows would set up further north and west than expected, keeping us cloudy, but dry for most of tomorrow night and Wednesday morning. So then just about everybody would get hosed by that. I am concerned that the models may be very much overdoing precipitation south of Rt 20, which is why I kept that area at 3-6" for now.

    2.) Surface temperatures get too warm. If this were to happen, rain would be the big player...and snow would mix in at times, but you'd essentially be cancelling it out. I'm not too concerned with this, but it plays in the back of my mind.

    3.) Surface temperatures get too warm. Why again? Well this could also have a factor in how much snow actually accumulates. Ratios could be more like 8:1 and we'd still get snow, but maybe more like 4-8" rather than 6-10".

    I will not be tweaking range amounts up any for 11...but I will reassess the placement of the 6-10/3-6 border and the 6-10/10-15 border.

    Posted February 25th at 6:49 PM

  108. mike m ( binghamton):

    yep, i agree it will all hinge on what the 00z models say tonight. i hope the NAM backs off on its track directly across CNY,and hopefully the gfs is just a bit further south, with a little stronger deformation zone. this winter sucks in a way, this seems like the thousandth time weve been stuck making a call on a storm just a few hrs before it starts, if not after it starts!!!! its not the models so much, as the fact that this winter has been tough with a lot of warm air hanging around at all levels of the atmosphere; this makes for very challlenging forecasts, which i will say wktv has handled very well, as always. keep up the good work guys!!!

    Posted February 25th at 6:59 PM

  109. Matt(Marcy):

    aw man could CNY be devastated (the snow-lovers)once again by the dry slot i mean was the original dry slot supposed to stay to our south or less intense?

    Posted February 25th at 7:40 PM

  110. mike m ( binghamton):

    i dont think so matt, at least north of route 20; right now it would be close for areas like bgm and norwhich,but even so snow would redevlop tuesday night. i still think we are going to see a colder 00z run come in tonight, on both the NAM and gfs. i also still think we see the low pressure wait to crank up, so instead of being west of philly as the gfs indicates now, it would wind up right along the NJ beaches and head almost directly over nyc, if not a bit east of nyc. this would put all of CNY in favorable snowfall zone(including bgm and norwhich) and it would help to ensure and all snow event from bgm to delhi line north(except deepest, warmest valleys where a BRIEF mix would be possible. this track would also eliminate the dry slot problem. watch for this shift tonight, i really think the models are goign to finally catch on!!!

    Posted February 25th at 7:50 PM

  111. Matt Lanza:

    New entry is up.

    Posted February 25th at 7:53 PM

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