Some hints of change?

Posted June 3rd, 2009 by Bill Kardas. 7 comments

It's been a chilly stretch of weather here for the past week.  Here's a look at the high temperatures since May 26th.

May 26th         64
May 27th         63
May 28th         68
May 29th         62
May 30th         66
May 31st         58    (Tied record for coldest high temperature for date)
June 1st         60
June 2nd        67

Average temperatures are supposed to be in the low 70s this time of year.  Looking at the month in general, May averaged about 1.9 degrees below normal.  Average daytime highs were -0.25 below normal, with average lows -3.5 below normal.  Frost was recorded 4 times in May (on the 11th, 12th, 13th, 19th) as well as June 1st.  Precipitation for the month was 4.58", 0.76" above normal.  No snowfall was recorded.

A large and persistant trough in Eastern North America has been responsible for keeping us cool and wet over the past week.  Patterns like this are very difficult to break.  However, there are signs in the long term forecast that this pattern will weaken.

Temperatures across the majority of the US are quite warm.  Summer weather continues for areas south of the Ohio River Valley, with highs pushing 90+ from Kentucky all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico.  From the Northeast to the upper Great Plains, temperatures continue to stay cool, with highs in the 50s & 60s.  Between these two dramatically different airmasses lies a strong frontal boundary that has produced a large amount of severe weather.  Hundreds of reports of wind damage and hail has been reported, with the worst of it from Missouri to Virgina and North Carolina.

This frontal boundary will stay put today, with continued severe weather expected in spots that already got hit yesterday.  For us, a day similar to yesterday, with some clouds mixed with sunshine.  Eventually, the front will drift a bit further south, allowing for sunshine on Thursday and Friday.  We're going to be closely monitoring a batch of tropical moisture that will ride along the frontal boundary on Thursday and Friday.  This moisture is expected to pass south of the area, but may be close enough to give us a few extra clouds.

We're between storm systems on Friday, Saturday, and most of Sunday.  As mentioned earlier, we expect this trough over the eastern US to weaken, and this process will begin starting on Friday, but won't be noticable until Saturday.  The trough slowly lifts north, meaning gradually warmer weather.  The next big question is how warm we can get on Sunday.  There is a ridge moving through and with all that warm weather building across the US...our models may be a bit too pessimistic with the weekend warmup.  Our current forecast is to keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s on Sunday & Monday.  It could be warmer than that. Stay tuned.