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Well, we're nowcasting the clipper that's impacting us, so continue to post comments and observations please. It helps us out tremendously!

For next week: Monday will be mild, but before that, a period of freezing rain is almost a guarantee in the morning. NAM spits out significantly more precip than the GFS, so we'll have to watch this closely. Next week's storm looks big, but whether it's rain or snow or a mix, we'll see.

That said, let's take a look at what this spring might have to offer. March, to me, is still a winter month at least. We still have winter weather. We average 16.2" of snow. It's very much wintry.

The most eggs in this basket will involve La Nina. Remember, the cooler waters of the Pacific Ocean near the Equator. Well this year, it has been particularly strong. When we did the winter outlook, we were able to hone in on December and March as being perhaps our two biggest winter months...a bookend winter of sorts. Well, we've ratcheted things up in the last week, and as we head into March, there appears to be no shortage of things going on weather-wise, some of which could involve snow.

That said, the La Nina years I looked at were more the moderate to strong events. Those years included:

1950
1954
1955
1964
1970
1971
1973
1975
1984
1988
1995
1999

Let's see how the US faired month by month when averaging those years together...

March

Temperature
Precipitation

April

Temperature
Precipitation

May

Temperature
Precipitation

What stands out? Colder and wetter Marches, cooler Aprils, and potential for warm Mays.

Let's look at hard average numbers for Utica in those years...

Average Spring Temperature: 44.4 degrees (0.5 degrees below normal)
Average Spring Precipitation: 9.54" (~ 1.50" below normal)
Average Spring Snowfall: 19.5" (0.8" below normal)

But, when you average it by month in those years, you end up with this:

March
Avg Temperature: 31.5 degrees (1.1 degrees below normal)
Avg Precip: 3.40" (0.25" below normal)
Avg Snowfall: 17.2" (1" above normal)

April

Avg Temperature: 44.4 degrees (0.4 degrees below normal)
Avg Precip: 3.04" (0.50" below normal)
Avg Snowfall: 2.2" (1.7" below normal)

May

Avg Temperature: 57.3 degrees (0.1 degrees above normal)
Avg Precip: 3.11" (0.70" below normal)
Avg Snowfall: 0.1" (0.1" below normal)

That said, I think we're in for a busy March winter wise, given the pattern on the table right now. Above normal snowfall seems likely. Below normal temperatures also seem likely. I think April will behave like November did, but in an opposite fashion. The first part of the month will be wintry, but the second part will be more springlike. And maybe the potential for a few warmer than normal days in May? I also looked at tornado statistics in these years and for the most part, we actually had less risk for tornadoes in La Nina years, averaging a little over 4.5 tornadoes per year (NYS average is 7 per year).

Now, back to the snow!

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Comments

Rob(whitesboro):

Not much going on here.Waiting for things to pick up.Only 1.0" at 9:30

Posted February 29th at 9:27 PM
SteveH (Tully):

Snowing like crazy here. Probably picked up 2 or 3 inches so far. The wind is averaging 5-10 MPH with gusts up to 25MPH. This is making a ground blizzard of sorts. If you look at the radar, it appears as if the precipitation is developing as it comes over the higher terrain in our area (South of Syracuse)despite being rather empty to our West. Hopefully we'll squeeze as much as we can out of this little system. Snowmobilers are out enjoying it already. Just saw one whip my my front walk.

Posted February 29th at 9:43 PM
Matt Lanza:

Just went outside and it's barely snowing here, but it's a whiteout anytime the wind blows... 15-25 mph winds here blowing everything around. About 1-1.5"

Posted February 29th at 9:45 PM
Abner (Holland Patent:

Snowing out fairly hard in Holland Patent right now. Its that fine dry snow. Not adding up too quickly.....yet.

Posted February 29th at 9:47 PM
Barb:

Snowing quite hard here in the town of Little Falls. Just drove home on 5s and the road is slick.

Posted February 29th at 10:05 PM
Matt Lanza:

I'm considering slicing back some snow totals tonight...I'm going with a storm total, based on the map above. I'm thinking 4-9" where the 6-12 was, 3-6 elsewhere. We're having real problems generating good snowflakes. The best lift in the atmosphere is not lined up with the best area of snow growth, so as a result, we're left with these wimpy snowflakes that are grainy and almost like pure crystals...they don't add up fast. We'll see.

Posted February 29th at 10:29 PM
mike m(binghamton):

holy crap lol i was up at greek peak and it snowed the whole time from 4-9 pm at varying intensities, but boy was it windy, gusts up to 50 mph on the mtn, ground blizzard conditions persisted most of the time, but i really like that kinda stuff so i had fun lol they had about 3 inches when i left at 9pm. lets talk BGM now. we have about 4 inches as of now. roads are terrible. winds are gusting to 35 mph...it is near blizzard conditions....and the best part is, according to the radar it looks like the downsloping is occuring just southwest of bgm, with and area of intense upslope right over bgm...if this persis much longer we could easily hit 6 inches here!!! visibility is around a quater mile now.

Posted February 29th at 10:39 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Snowflakes have been average size here.Just hasn't been coming down hard enough.It's more steady now though.

Posted February 29th at 10:40 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

NAM still hinting at that meso band just to our north.Starting to wonder if that will actually pan out.

Posted February 29th at 10:45 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

just looking at larger scale radar,and we have a bunch of snow to go through yet...this could get interesting.

Posted February 29th at 10:48 PM
Matt Lanza:

Slightly revised snowfall map here

Posted February 29th at 10:53 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

just took an "official" measurement, it was not in a drift or anything...we are at 3.75 inches here. moderate wind driven snow still falling.

Posted February 29th at 10:54 PM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

Looking out the windows, snowing like mad here now for almost 4 hours. Various measurements just now are all at 3 inches or just a hair under. Picked up a shovelful expecting a heavy sand like snow and it was very light. It's weird, it looks like a major storm going on but it is not materializing on the ground.

Posted February 29th at 10:57 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

jim its beacuse of the wind, if you go look around youll find drift of up to a foot guarenteed...also if there are woods around alot of the snow will blow into them.

Posted February 29th at 10:59 PM
Matt Lanza:

It's next to impossible to measure up here. Very few sheltered areas so the snow is whipping all over. I had a bare deck at 3 PM. I have bare spots still, and 6"+ drifts elsewhere. The snowboard has been swept clean.

Posted February 29th at 11:04 PM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

Yes, I did all measurements in my driveway between cars and in areas that were all flat across with no drifts. Do have some major drifts however, some 6-12 inches in spots along the sides.

Posted February 29th at 11:09 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

The wind hasn't really been a factor here.I had one good gust earlier but the flag hasn't been blowing around much.It's been about 10mph here.

Posted February 29th at 11:12 PM
Matt HP:

Matt,

Its 11:12 where are we so far in the total Snowfall for the month?
Are we gonna break into the top 10?

Posted February 29th at 11:14 PM
Matt Lanza:

Utica will finish February with 32.0" of snow, putting us as the 9th snowiest February on record.

This also puts us at 82.0" for the season, which is normal for March 6th. Having the leap day this year could make a huge difference ;)

Posted February 29th at 11:19 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt in HP...I wrote that without even seeing your post! Great minds.... :)

Posted February 29th at 11:20 PM
heather (german flatts):

still snowing here fine misty snow but wet it blowing pretty good too travel on both 5s and thruway slow hubby called said st.johnsville its snowing small flakes but very steady has gottten @2-3in since 7pm

Posted February 29th at 11:23 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

binghamton is deffinetly getting upslope enhancement right now, the moderate snow is just sitting over BGM. flakes are rather large here. matt, could this moderate snow last most of the night at BGM?

Posted February 29th at 11:24 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

00z gfs has shifted significantly east with wed storm, now tracks it almost directly over us, which would leas to moderate back side accumulations. another 100 miles east and we would get nailed.

Posted February 29th at 11:27 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah Mike I've been keeping a close eye on that.I'm surprised the models haven't really been jumping around all over the place with it.Got to watch Day 7 now too.

Posted February 29th at 11:29 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike M: THis storm needs to be watched closely for a number of reasons... first heavy snow potential at some point during it. Second: Threat of mixed precipitation somewhere in it. The trajectory of the storm is one that doesn't really scream sleet or freezing rain, but worth watching. Third: Hydrological concerns. Flooding could become a major problem if this thing dumps as much rain as is currently forecasted. We could be looking at serious ice break up, ice jams and snowmelt flooding, especially in the Adirondacks. Fourth: This could be a table setter for yet another significant storm later in the week. A lot to digest. Next week could theoretically end up being busier than this week was.

Posted February 29th at 11:32 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

nice sounds good(everything but flooding and mixed precip lol). headed out for a one hr snow total, be back in a bit. the mtns sw of me are doing their job well(upsloping me ;)

Posted February 29th at 11:36 PM
mike in sauquoit:

Matt..how much snow do you think utica and marcy will get before morning?

Posted February 29th at 11:37 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

.7 inches in past hr here. snow has slowed a bit, only light snow now, still windy. i suspect upslope will continue to enhance snow over me for a while longer.

Posted February 29th at 11:40 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike Sauquoit: See post 11 for a storm total map.

Mike M: You bet, but it's getting to be that time of year...rain is going to become more of an issue with each passing day. I personally find severe weather more exciting than snow myself (except a good old fashioned nor'easter), so I'm ready!

Posted February 29th at 11:42 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

yea, rain is deffinetly a player, unless a storm passes a good 75 miles east of us or more. its funny, we keep getting bouts of hvy snow here, they come up really quick out of no where....i always wondered what it would be like to be in a good upslope zone(like wv, or alleganies)

Posted February 29th at 11:45 PM
mike in sauquoit:

yes i looked at that already but that is at 7pm saturday not 6am is the accumulating snow gonna be over or??

Posted February 29th at 11:53 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: I'm sure there will be minor accumulations tomorrow night, but nothing substantial. Not a great lake effect setup.

Posted February 29th at 11:57 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

18.7 degrees with steady moderate snow falling. 2.5" inches here as of midnight. Snowflakes are not big and aren't adding up fast. Roads are snow covered but travel isn't a problem yet. Winds have been brisk, but blowing and drifting in town is not a real major problem either, just a nuisance. I mean, radar looks great right now along the thruway corridor through both Herkimer and Oneida counties, but it just isn't adding up fast. Snowflake size I think is the biggest issue right now.

Posted March 1st at 12:02 AM
mike m(binghamton):

we got rather big flakes down here...i guess that is the difference in accumulations. looks like the back edge is approaching rather fast and will probably be through binghamton between 1-3 am, and utica between 2-4am.

Posted March 1st at 12:06 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

It's been snowing lightly here.Just 2.0"

Posted March 1st at 12:14 AM
Matt Lanza:

I really think snowflake size is what did us in for this event. Clippers are a pain to forecast. From what I've learned they are either one extreme or the other. In this instance, you're forecasting almost one inch liquid and you end up with like 4-6" at most...it becomes an issue. Then there are instances where you've got like 0.25" forecasted and you get 6" snow. They're fickle.

Posted March 1st at 12:19 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike the CMC went east again.First major global shift in several runs.

Posted March 1st at 12:20 AM
mike m(binghamton):

i wonder if we will get into an atlantic convey belt which could halt the eastward progression of the back edge of the snowfall....the models hinted at this...

Posted March 1st at 12:20 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

great minds think alike Rob, i just checked it out myself. it actually takes it right off the coast near nyc, we'd be on the western side of the heaviest precip...which is what we want if we want an all snow event...deffinetly promising

Posted March 1st at 12:23 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah the flake size is fine again.Visability was never under a mile here.Matt are you camping out tonight?

Posted March 1st at 12:23 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

iwent snowboarding down my road, so much fun. and through a pine forrest in my neighbors yard...as good times. tomorrow im gonna checkout the back country behind my house, guarentee ill find some good lines...

Posted March 1st at 12:26 AM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: My plan was to leave work for Albany...don't want to drive more than I have to. I might leave soon. Roads aren't that great though. No real Thruway reports, but I imagine it gets painful between Little Falls and Canajoharie...prime spot for blowing snow. I'm going to stay up here for a bit. I did some housekeeping...going to be a busy week so might as well set the table.

Posted March 1st at 12:31 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

3.5" inches of snow as of 1:15a.m. Snowing moderate to heavy at times and is accumulating a little faster as well, albeit snowflake size remains the same. Travel is rough as main roads up here haven't been plowed now in well over two hours. Streets in town haven't been plowed since it started. I'm off to bed!

Posted March 1st at 1:32 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Snowflake size has been varible here for some reason.It's very fine for a few minutes and then there is good sized flakes.Weird.I'll go out and check once more around 2 or so.Might as well stay up for the Euro since I've made it this far.

Posted March 1st at 1:43 AM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: Euro's on pace with its previous runs which have a track over or near us, so still the likelihood of rain, but some snow is a possibility too. One distinct thing the Euro does not have is the late week mess, which could end up being another GFS fantasy storm. Time will tell.

Posted March 1st at 1:52 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Well that's it for me tonight.Euro looks like rain to snow still.Doesn't did the troff deep enough to grab the energy on Day 7.Not like it matters this far out.At 2.5" now.

Posted March 1st at 1:54 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

snow coming to an end down here...around 5 inches total. with more likely tomorrow, the mesoscale models are showing the possibility of strong squalls tomorrow from near BGM to just south of utica.

Posted March 1st at 2:12 AM
Matt (CB):

Got up at 2 am.Was 21 degrees and light snow falling.Since than,the snow has picked up with large flakes and dumped almost 2 inches.Not sure how much fell before but we have some good drifts out there.Off to work now

Posted March 1st at 3:39 AM
Abner (Holland Patent):

Picked up a decent 6" over the past 12 hours. Not too shabby considering how fine the snow was. Snowing out hard now with large flakes. Haven't seen a plow at all during this storm. (6:53 AM)

Posted March 1st at 6:54 AM
Jean - Cedar Lake:

Moderate snow falling now with very large flakes. Hard to figure snow totals because of the drifting.

Posted March 1st at 6:57 AM
randy Vitullo:

I just took eight separate measurements arouund the house and on the trails in Holland Patent. The verdict is in: 8.5 inches and still snowing................ It is looking like more to come this week as well.
What are the morning models showing on the Tues / Wed storm?

Posted March 1st at 7:05 AM
Amy (Salisbury):

Measuring 7 inches as of a few minutes ago.

Posted March 1st at 7:31 AM
MG(Point Rock):

6.0 inches here for the storm. Depth on the ground is 30.5 inches, the most so far this winter. Not snowing currently, a little bit of blue showing through the clouds.

Posted March 1st at 7:59 AM
randy Vitullo:

MG, where is Point Rock?

Posted March 1st at 8:03 AM
randy Vitullo:

Matt, I believe Utica's snowiest March was around 50 inches sometime back during the 1990s. Perhaps, 1993 or 1994. Those were not La Nina Years or were they? I know that those two years produced a couple of monster March storms.

Posted March 1st at 8:06 AM
Jill Reale:

The snowiest March for Utica was back in 1892 with 57.3" of snow. #2 was in 2001 with 46.7" and #3 was in 1971 (La Nina Year) with 46.4". March of 1993 had 32.9" (#9) and 1994 had 38.9" (#6)

Posted March 1st at 8:29 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Only ended up with 3.5" here.Good squall now.

Posted March 1st at 9:06 AM
stevo (rome):

yeah but 1993 and 1994 those monthly totals both came from one noreaster storm lol

Posted March 1st at 9:19 AM
stevo (rome):

about 5.5 inches here in rome from last nights clipper.with drifts over a foot in spots. hard to measure once again.

Posted March 1st at 9:23 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Just a quick hello and good morning. We got 4" of snow last night. Just cloudy now. Won't be on much next two days due to family issues. Will check in when I can.

Posted March 1st at 9:25 AM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

Big fluffy flurries falling steady and moderately here now for about an hour, about 6 inches total since the start last night.

Posted March 1st at 10:04 AM
roady:

8" here in the hills of Plymouth temp has shot up to 29 already.

Posted March 1st at 11:13 AM
Scott (Westmoreland):

In the sheltered areas around the house this morning I had 6" inches of snow from the storm last night. More or less in other areas.

Posted March 1st at 11:14 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

6 inches total here after a strong squall moved through around 10 am. it is going to be difficult for tues/wed storm to be all snow, it would have to pass well to our SE, like near the mason dixon line then NE to around NYC.

Posted March 1st at 12:00 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, et all why is the NWS kinda stupid most of the time? everytime it is windy and it snows they report less than half of what really fell everywhere else in the county. they check their snowboard and since the snow blew off it that is what they report. also apparently the snow fell at a 100:1 ratio at BGm yesterday lol they only reported .02 inches of qpf. dont they realize those stats are not accurate???

Posted March 1st at 12:04 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike M: I can assure you that the NWS isn't stupid when it comes to snow measurements. They do a better job than any of us do! It's very much possible that they actually did get what they measured. As for QPF...they realize it, but unfortunately, since the government mandated that airports go to automated sensors in the 90s and cut human observers, everything from temperatures to precip totals has to be taken with a grain of salt. That said, BGM still measures snow themselves, so they know what they're doing. I honestly think a lot of measurements from everyone need to be taken with a grain of salt with this storm because of how light and easily moved this stuff was...it really makes it almost impossible to measure. But we really appreciate the numbers and will add them to our list for sure. I would say it looks like 3-5" in the Valley, 5-9" just north of the Valley and 4-8" south of the Valley. I mean, I tried to measure last night before I left and it was literally impossible to find a sheltered area that wasn't swept clean or drifted in...and if it were sheltered (which is what I thought was the case where I placed the snowboard, but it was swept clean) it was impossible to tell the difference between old snow and new.

Posted March 1st at 12:33 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Visability was 1/4 mile here when the squall line went through.I'm good for 4.0" here for a total.The lake has come alive now as more squalls are moving in.Mike the GFS has been pretty soild...hopefully that will change.CMC still looks impressive.

Posted March 1st at 12:46 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

We picked up 7 inches yesterday afternoon through 8:00 am today, making our seasonal total 185.6. It was snowing very hard 20 min ago, now just getting a light snowfall. The temp dropped 8 degrees in less than 40 min. it has now started to climb back up. Currently were at 25. The winds are WNW at 18 mph; we had a high gust of 35 mph 27 min ago.

Posted March 1st at 12:59 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

6.0" inches of snow here as of 1:30p.m. Very breezy out as well. Otherwise, a perfect day to go out and enjoy the snow.

Posted March 1st at 1:28 PM
Matt HP:

Snowing so hard here there is less than 500 ft visibility.
About 7 inches total as of this morning

Posted March 1st at 2:27 PM
Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

3.0 inches here

Posted March 1st at 2:45 PM
Matt Lanza:

By the way, in the weather department, we officially switch our calendars to spring today. Meteorological winter is December, January and February, so today is (to us) the first day of spring. So to those of you who aren't like the majority in this blog (snowhounds), there is hope! :) So happy spring!

Posted March 1st at 3:09 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Very intense squalls moving into the area.Snowfall rates are 1 to 2 inches per in some of these.

Posted March 1st at 3:21 PM
stevo (rome):

ummmmmmmmmmm i think this is gonna be more than just a snow shower lake event here.the radar is looking pretty intense. this wasnt predicted. whiteout conditions here in rome!!!!!!visibility is less than a football field!

Posted March 1st at 3:34 PM
stevo (rome):

we just had a rumble of thunder! snowing hard!

Posted March 1st at 3:41 PM
Matt Lanza:

VERY impressive lake enhanced snow ongoing today. This isn't pure lake effect. The atmosphere isn't exactly cold enough for major LES. What we're seeing instead, is upstream lake moisture getting pushed into Lake Ontario, a seasonably cold air mass aloft and basically the same type of set up you would see in the summertime with "pop up" thunderstorms. Instability is extremely high right and basically snow squalls are blowing up, being enhanced by lake moisture and upper level disturbances (that are typically poorly modelled) that keep pivoting in. The result will be a couple more hours of locally intense squalls that will dissipate after sunset (similar to how t'storms usually do in summer). Then, some LES will take over tonight. But yes, this is what I guess will make this snow event an overachiever for many!

Posted March 1st at 3:51 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Visability has been less than 1/4 mile here.Very heavy snow.

Posted March 1st at 4:27 PM
Bill Kardas:

Snow squalls will continue through afternoon, as short wave passes through region. Not completely surprised by the lake response, as with every other short wave event this year has been magnified due to Lake Ontario. Remember last Saturday night? We got snow out of almost nothing!

Posted March 1st at 4:38 PM
Bill Kardas:

It was nice to see the sun out from time to time today. All of last night's snow melted off my car without me lifting a finger. Ahhh :)

Posted March 1st at 4:56 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

2.0" of snow has fallen the past hour.Received 2.5" since noon.Still moderate snow at this time.

Posted March 1st at 5:01 PM
MJ (Trenton):

Bill,
I'd love to hear your trick for getting 6"+ to melt off your car.
I needed a pushbroom to clean off my truck.
These squalls today are pretty intense, visibility down to couple hundred feet once in awhile. But, only 1"-2" all day.
And whats all this spring talk, winter just got here.

Posted March 1st at 5:09 PM
MikeD:

Bill, still "stuck" in Tampa. What's the deal with the rain next week? Missing out on some premo ridin and need to go next week. Thanks.

Posted March 1st at 5:42 PM
Brian:

Bill your original map of 8-12+ is starting to pan out very well. It just keeps on snowing. Amounts are holding true. You guys nailed another one!! Great work.

Posted March 1st at 7:38 PM
Matt HP:

Brian,

Hate to say it but I think everyone in the weatherteam would say they got a little bit lucky.
Matt admitted it this setup now was unexpected.
However, you guys are still awesome, everyone needs a little luck.

Posted March 1st at 7:42 PM
Bill Kardas:

MikeD,

I can almost guarantee you that there will be snow here when fly/drive in. One warm day is not going to melt all the snow out here.

Posted March 1st at 8:03 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: Just want to clarify...it's not so much that this setup was unexpected...we expected scattered "squalliness" today (gotta give credit where credit is due...and the models are due it...specifically the NAM which really showed this well), but it was definitely much more prolific than we gave it credit for!

I think we may have overestimated the snow totals from the clipper (but based on radar, we would have been right on, had the snowflakes behaved properly)...highest amounts last night into the morning were 8" in Westernville and Indian Lake. The models ended up getting lucky too. Their precip forecasts probably came close to verifying based on today's squalls, not the clipper itself like it appeared the models hinted at. So while we can definitely factor a little luck into things, I think and still think our forecast had and has merit in retrospect. Had the snowflakes last night been more favorable for accumulation, we would have busted quite low, I can tell you that. Whatever the case, we were close enough!

Posted March 1st at 8:10 PM
Piseco:

We ended up with 10 inches last night, with 2.5 inches today...and snowing moderately now.

Posted March 1st at 8:19 PM
Bob Jones:

SPRING SPRING SPRING! Why can't anyone say that word? It's like potitically incorrect to say spring on this blog. Well too bad.

Posted March 1st at 8:30 PM
Matt Lanza:

Bob: I know! It took 88 posts for anyone to recognize the main theme of the blog entry was an "unofficial spring outlook." Ha. Oh well! :)

Posted March 1st at 8:38 PM
John from cold brook:

Bob - I agree 100%! The snow people have had their fun, and now it is time for us to look forward to spring (oops! I said the "S" word!)

Posted March 1st at 8:45 PM
Matt (CB):

Well I can say spring Bob Jones.I can't wait for longer sunnier days.I worked a 13 hr shift today in that weather.I spent all day outside and walked through snow that was almost kneed deep at times.Same for tomorrow and Monday.The sun felt nice and warm today while it was out.Now thats a sign of SPRING !!!Over 11 hrs of daylight now...SPRING

Posted March 1st at 8:46 PM
Bob Jones:

This year has been a great year for the winter enthusiasts! We've had some ups and downs this winter, but overall you really can't complain about things. Give it a few weeks, and it will be time to move on to other things like flooding and the mud season. MJ, God forbid Bill gets excited that doesn't have to wipe snow off his car. Oh what a terrible thing that must be.

Posted March 1st at 8:49 PM
James (Sauquoit):

I love the snow the more the better however, it is time to start thinking about SPRING. That's the great thing about living in the MV all of the seasons are great!Matt:(CB) 11 hours of daylight rocks!!

Posted March 1st at 8:51 PM
jon:

whats latest on tues and wed storm?any way we can still get a good snowstorm out of this or are we getting close enough to storm where things wont change much and will get a mix or rain?

Posted March 1st at 8:57 PM
Jules (Ilion):

SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING SPRING
Bring it on....................

Posted March 1st at 9:03 PM
vinny(utica):

jules,i am looking forward to spring also to start playing golf but i want one huge snowstorm before it is over.then bring on spring!

Posted March 1st at 9:06 PM
Kate:

Sorry if this was asked, I didn't see it anywhere though...when will be seeing a storm next week? Towards the end of the week? I hope not because I don't want it to spoil the Heart Run and Walk!

Posted March 1st at 9:49 PM
Mike:

Sorry Bob, my Club's groomers just got out Weds due to a LACK of snow. Not seeing how its "been a great year for Winter enthusiasts"
at all. Oh yeah, I now have 100 miles on a brand new sled. I suppose I could have gone out when we had 4-5 inches of snow with many bare spots but no point in tearing up somebody's land or ruining a brand new sled for nothing. Yes, I did miss a couple of days for other reasons but the main cause was a lack of snow.One more thing for you Spring people- the temp in St.Pete. is 65 and the sunset was about 630.

Posted March 1st at 9:56 PM
mike(leonardsville):

The storm for next week may just became a major problem for us. On the new 0Z GFS run the low moved a far amount southward compared to the 12Z run. Now could this become more of a mix or heavy snow event instead of a rain event?

Posted March 1st at 10:59 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

The track looks more favorable but it's just too much of a warm core storm.Could be some decent freezing rain with it though for awhile.That high pressure system to the north is going to cause some problems I think.

Posted March 1st at 11:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: I'm beginning to run out of ways to see this storm being a snow event at all for us. Latest GFS is a great track for snow, but keeps us VERY warm aloft. This would be sleet or freezing rain here. That said, the NAM shifts north and gives us a rather ominous looking rainstorm. Either way we're in for some serious issues this week, be it ice or flooding...but frankly snow is looking less and less likely with each passing run.

Posted March 1st at 11:28 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah you really can't get much of a better track for snow than the GFS/CMC are showing.We would probably be much better off if it was snow.We sure don't want an icestorm with the amount of QPF that is being shown.

Posted March 2nd at 12:10 AM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: We could be looking at some sort of 2"+ QPF event! When you get a stormy pattern in March, it almost always means some sort of trouble. We need to watch this realll close the next 36 hours.

Posted March 2nd at 12:21 AM
mike(leonardville):

I'd rather see ice than rain honestly. Some of the bigger ice storms have taken place in March and i'd rather keep my electric. I just hope it doesn't become a freezing rain event with that 2+ QPF, that would be awful to see.

Posted March 2nd at 12:31 AM
mike(leonardsville):

I meant rain, not ice. No ice here at all.

Posted March 2nd at 12:32 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

finger lake band form right over BGM now.

Posted March 2nd at 12:42 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

getting pounded down here now, visibilites under a quater mile. if this flow can remain constant we could pick up several inches of powder quickly. also activity off finger lakes still expanding...looks like at least a steady snow through morning. id call for an average of 2-4 inches by morning anywhere in central NY south of the thruway...in most cases 15 miles or more south of the thruway.

Posted March 2nd at 1:19 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, i just read your post about the airport from last night, and i guess you are right...they are not stupid. they meausre the best they can, but it always seems low, idk. but as for the qpf, that is really bad....think about it, bgm probably had at least .2 inches of qpf, not .02 as the automated sensor said...if this happens nearly everyday in the winter and in the summer, then bgms rainfall stats are way off. bgm might recieve 10 more inches of precip each year than the automated sensors say...idk it is not very good climate data.

Posted March 2nd at 1:35 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Well well well, woke up this morning to a fresh new 3 inches of fluff. Makes our storm total to 7" over the 2 days.

What do the new models look like, Hopefully they are shifting back north and west!!??? Ice is something we have definately had our share of.

Posted March 2nd at 9:56 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Wow the NAM is showing some big trouble this morning.Just about all precip is frozen in some way.Looks more like a major winter storm!

Posted March 2nd at 10:00 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Took a look at the upclose WRF and wow.....almost 3" QPF. The 0 line goes north of us, but the 32 degree line has such a hard time moving north. Not good at all.

Posted March 2nd at 10:19 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Seasonal Total-86.0"
Snowpack-13.0"

Posted March 2nd at 10:20 AM
Jennifer:

Is it too early to tell how Saturday will be for the Heart Run and Walk?

Posted March 2nd at 11:43 AM
Matt Lanza:

Jennifer: Right now Saturday looks like a mix of clouds and sun with scattered snow showers, but that's just an early call. To be honest, our main focus through Wednesday is going to be on this storm, so, unfortunately. you won't be hearing much insight on the Saturday forecast for a few days.

Posted March 2nd at 11:54 AM
jon:

matt,is it looking like a major ice storm right now or is it possible to get a snowstorm?

Posted March 2nd at 11:57 AM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff/Rob: Just looked at the NAM's hard numbers. Get this...and again, this is only the model output which is hardly ever right on... 2.93" total precip, 6" snow, 0.65" sleet, 1.40" ice. Not at all what I would call a nice outlook right now.

One thing I will say that may be good news. The NAM does bring the 32F line close enough to the Valley to make me at least think at this juncture that this would be more rain than ice. That said, areas north and east of Utica right now are in a very unsettling spot. This would be a heck of a sleet/ice storm in the Adirondacks. At this point there, the temperature gradient (difference in temperature over an area) is tremendous, so if the storm tracks 25-50 miles further north or south, it will make a world of difference. That said, I wouldn't be shocked to see Winter Storm Watches go up tomorrow.

Posted March 2nd at 12:01 PM
Shaun:

Matt, is wednesday looking like a significant ice storm, or is it going to be more of a snowstorm... like a nor'easter as i have been hearing?

Posted March 2nd at 12:02 PM
Matt Lanza:

Shaun/Jon: It's too early to say with any certainty what this is going to be. At this point, it looks more like a rainstorm for the Mohawk Valley south, with a brief period of ice or snow at the start and finish, but like I said in 116, a shift in the final track can/will make a big difference. Just have to wait and see right now...

Posted March 2nd at 12:15 PM
Jennifer:

Okay, thanks Matt!

I thought the storm was supposed to be over by Wednesday?

Posted March 2nd at 1:37 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

I would really love to see this thing about 200 miles northwest of where it is now. Track the ice outta here and take the heavy precip to the West. Even if it does get warm enough for a primarily rain event, that is going to be alot of water and snow melt into an area that is already saturated from recent rain events.

Posted March 2nd at 4:04 PM
Bill Kardas:

I'm leaning with the next storm to be heavy rain, changing over to snow. While the models continue to advertise sleet and freezing rain, the setup makes me think otherwise.

Posted March 2nd at 4:50 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

bill, dont forget that is a strong fresh push of cold air from canada...it will prbably be hard to push warm air into it succesfully esp with a storm track to our SE

Posted March 2nd at 5:40 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I like the idea of snow on the front and back end.I think we have a shot to pick up 3-6" on both sides.I have no clue on what's going to happen inbetween.

Posted March 2nd at 6:07 PM
Bill Kardas:

Mike,

It's too early to make any concrete decisions but based on how this year has played out, I wouldn't be surprised if the warm air wins part of the battle. Next few model runs will tell a better story.

Posted March 2nd at 6:37 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

bill,agreed.

Posted March 2nd at 6:50 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

I think that the 00Z, 12Z, and 00Z tom are going to show us some interesting trends. I just hope they bring it back north and west. It looks awful dicey right now.

Posted March 2nd at 7:55 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

I am VERY concerned with the qpf output with this storm. Whether it comes as snow, ice, or rain we are going to have major problems with that amount of liquid. I have between 18-24+" inches of snow on the ground up here in town. Snowbanks along the streets are 6 feet high! No matter what the precip type is, if you have a foot or more of snow on your roof, clear it off or else it could be in danger of collapsing. If this comes as snow, we have very little if any room left to put anymore snow, and if we get anything over 3/4" inch of ice, you start having major problems with trees and power. And of course if it comes as rain, that amount of rain could cause major flooding if the snowpack doesn't absorb it. It appears any way you slice it, this is not good!

Posted March 2nd at 8:26 PM
Mike(leonardsville):

I'd rather have snow or rain over ice. I don't have to worry about flooding and if it's snow, at least it won't be causing power problems like ice.

Posted March 2nd at 8:42 PM
Matt HP:

Matt, Could you possibly pass along to the news team to tell people it maybe in their best interest to start cleaning roofs off? I don't know if there is a volunteer group who will help the elderly with little money help clean their roofs off.
I truly think other than possible roof collapses, Snow would be the best way to go with this storm. Any ice, even near a 1/4 of an inch or more would be horrible. Rain will cause flooding and major damages. Especially with as much snow on the ground and the ground being almost if not completely frozen. Snow would only shut down the area for 24-36 hours assuming its a 20-30 hour storm. Maybe slightly longer if we get 2 feet of snow or more. 1/2 inch of ice could hurt people for 24-72+ hours. Rain/ Flooding will cause huge problems especially considering homeowners does not cover flood damage. Im sure people along the East branch of the West Canada can vouch for this.

I say snow if we can prepare for it will be best.

Posted March 2nd at 9:52 PM
Bill Kardas:

New entry up!

Posted March 2nd at 9:57 PM
vinny(utica):

bill,is there anyway this can become an all snow event depending on the track?if possible would we be talking about feet for amounts?also if ice storm how much ice can we expect?

Posted March 2nd at 10:04 PM

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