Weather Blog | Significant Snow Possible Tuesday Night...

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The winter of 2007-2008 has best been characterized by the fact that so many events have wreaked havoc on us. None of our big storms this year have been just snow. We have had sleet or freezing rain or even plain rain interfere in every one of them.

And our upcoming storm is no exception.

Let's walk through this event...

Snow will arrive tomorrow afternoon. Here's our Microcast model's version of events tomorrow at noon. Snow will begin to arrive between Noon and 2 PM across Chenango and Otsego Counties. Snow will spread into the Mohawk Valley between 2 and 4 PM. It will spread into the North Country by sunset. Snow will start off light, but quickly go heavy at times. In fact, between 7 and 10 PM, here's the NAM's depiction of events. This will be all-snow. About 0.20" or so over 3 hours will translate easily to 2-4" of snow, given how cold we'll be. Tack on an additional 1-3" leading up to that, and right away it looks like a solid snow event for most of us.

Let's fast forward from between 10 PM and 1 AM. Notice even heavier precip over the Adirondacks and just north of Mohawk Valley! Potential exists for isolated thundersnow in this timeframe. BUT...the most important thing to take from this. In the top right hand panel, you'll notice, 850 mb temperatures are overlaid. The 0 line pushes into Otsego County, which means some of what falls south of Route 20 at this point is sleet.

Three hours later, that sleet pushes all the way to a Rome-Dolgeville line. It's still all snow in the Adirondacks and toward Boonville. From this point, on the NAM at least, things taper off.

On the GFS, we see a similar situation, but it is also a bit warmer, with more precipitation, which would mean more sleet and potentially some freezing rain as well.

Our in-house Microcast model is going crazy on us with snow, keeping any mix out of here and dumping 12-15" across most of the area.

At this point, I'm willing to say this:

Snow will be heavy at times tomorrow evening and overnight.

I think sleet will mix in south of Route 20, cutting down on snow totals there.

I think everyone will see at least 3-6" of snow. I think the Adirondacks (Old Forge-Lake Pleasant) will see at least 6-12". I think the Valley will see at least 3-6", with higher amounts almost a lock. I want to wait on one more model run before I mess with a map, which may come tonight at 11.

There could be a dry slotting issue in the storm (GFS hints at this and has done well with this all winter). If that occurs, it would be between Midnight and 5 AM, before heavier precip moves back in on Wednesday morning (sleet/snow/freezing rain mix).

I do feel Wednesday morning will be a mess around here.

Beyond This Storm

Friday: A weak clipper system will move through, and this far out, it appears could dump 1-3" or so, before a brief window for LES opens. Not expecting things to get too organized. High pressure builds in and one of our coldest nights of the winter is possible this weekend.

Sunday-Monday: With the NAO going negative for a short time, cold air in place and a developing storm in the south, the players are on the field for pre-game warmups for another potential coastal storm. Tuesday's storm is more of an overrunning situation and a secondary storm that tracks out to sea. The Sunday-Monday timeframe smells of a potential nor'easter. At this time, a moderate snowfall is possible. But we have several days to track this and a few other events to worry about first.

Lake Snows

Lake snows will wind down over the next few hours. Storm totals so far in our viewing area: 17" Boonville, 20" Westdale, 10" Glenmore, 9" Camden, 8.7" Steuben. South Redfield ended up with 36", and I did hear reports of 35-45" across Oswego County. Not bad.

Here in Utica, we're up to 60.2" for the season, which is 7.3" below normal. I doubt we'll go above normal by the end of the week, but believe it or not, as bad as this winter has been snow-wise, we could end up close to or above normal soon! Impressive.

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Comments

Mike(Leonardsville):

I hope the 0Z tracks it slightly south, because driving on snow is a lot easier than driving on ice.

Posted February 11th at 8:02 PM
Barb (Lee Center):

Mel...I think I get more drifting in my area so it is hard for me to tell how much we actually get...I walked out to the mailbox and it was up over my ankles...but my neighbor across the street had less in their driveway...(it was after I posted). Last year, we had over four feet of snow in our back yard (six by the fence), and they had about three feet. We have an open field in the back, and they have a field...gotta' love the country.

Posted February 11th at 8:08 PM
Jessica- East Herkimer:

HI! I am new to this whole blog thing but have been a regular reader of them. The way it looks to me is that we can't miss getting hit with something from this one!

Posted February 11th at 8:10 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: The good thing in all this is that I am having a lot of trouble seeing freezing rain from this. Sleet, sure, but freezing rain is tough. I still have to mention it because it's out there, but. We'll see.

Posted February 11th at 8:16 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

I am not buying into the warm air making it that far north. Especially with the path of the low, I just dont think it will make it that far north. I think this storm might surprise someone in between here and Albany. I think that most of us will be shoveling by Wednesday morning that is for sure.

Posted February 11th at 8:25 PM
Kevin (whitesboro):

Yippee! I am really looking forward to see how this new storm unfolds! :)

Posted February 11th at 8:28 PM
Dan (leecenter):

hope we get hit hard tommorrow. Matt we got 11 inches from the lake effect.

Posted February 11th at 8:44 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Latest NAM just burned us on a significant snowfall.Unbelievable..the storm was on the cool side all week untill the latest run.

Posted February 11th at 9:23 PM
Cindy (ilion):

Man I hope we get snow out of this one. It ALWAYS seems to turn from a great snow maker to a 3-4" of snow and then sleet for us, and then the old dry slot too. Can't we just get a good old fashion snow storm. I just want some snow.

Posted February 11th at 9:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

00Z NAM is a significant change...with the changeover to sleet or freezing rain occurring much sooner and much further north. I would compare to the 00Z GFS before I go nuts. But this is not a good trend.

Posted February 11th at 9:32 PM
Mike(Leonardsville):

Figures it would become an ice storm. I better get the salt out for the steps and the alarm clock on an hour early for work. I guess this is the winter of ice and no snow.

Posted February 11th at 10:14 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Ok I retract my comment on the warm air not getting far north after looking at the Ptype on the new models. Now I do hope that it goes further east, I really dont like the ice thing. I think the GFS is going to show the shift as well. At least the models are showing the heaviest of precip out East of NY looks like they are going to have a lot of rain!

Posted February 11th at 10:18 PM
Cindy:

I hear you Mike. We are lucky if we have 3" on the ground here in Ilion. I knew it was too good to be true...just snow.

Posted February 11th at 10:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

Here's my first call snow map ...not so much a call as a blueprint for you to use to help estimate how much snow will fall. I still like the idea of a decent thump of snow on the front end...and potentially on the back end too...in between, however, I am concerned about sleet or rain, and possibly ice south of Rt 20.

Posted February 11th at 10:34 PM
Mike(Leonardsville):

This almost looks like a repeat of the storm a week in a half ago with the ice. How much ice could south of 20 get?

Posted February 11th at 10:37 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Not willing to put a number out on ice yet. This looks almost like a repeat of the mid-December storm...almost identical right now.

Posted February 11th at 10:41 PM
Mike(Leonardville):

The difference is, that I don't think it's going to reach freezing on Wednesday. I remember changing to plain rain fairly early in the december storm, 9-10 at night.

Posted February 11th at 10:46 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

this storm is starting to suck, as usual warm air is the enemy; its hard to beleive we are not talking about all snow with temps near 0 outside now!! im starting to wonder of BGM can ever get just a regular old fashion snow storm ever this winter. matt, could areas along and east of I81 get a pretty decent shot of snow wednesday afternoon, the models seem to be trending stronger and closer to the coast with the secondary storm.

Posted February 11th at 10:52 PM
Matt Lanza:

Latest GFS is in and mirrors the NAM. I'm satisfied with the forecast out there now. Sleet will cut down on totals. But a solid 3-6" seems reasonable in my opinion. With an aggressive southerly flow at 850 mb, temperatures are going to warm up tomorrow night a lot faster than you think. Temps south of Rt 20 should be above freezing except in the typical cold spots by Wednesday at 7 AM.

Posted February 11th at 10:52 PM
Brian:

Matt, thanks for the great info. Still looks good in the north country.

Posted February 11th at 10:54 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: When all is said and done, I like my numbers out there now as averages. We'll see how it actually unfolds, but the fact that your area may go over to plain rain does not bode well right now.

Posted February 11th at 10:54 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

like i said earlier matt, it is really sad to even be talking plain rain, when im at 5.4 degrees right now and it is snowing all the way back into the ohio valley, but there is no doubt; unfortunetly, that plain rain may be a factor here, again!!!

Posted February 11th at 10:58 PM
Mike(Leonardsville):

This is perhapes the saddest winters i've ever seen. Go for 0 on day with lake effect to the next day and it's 35 with plain rain. There is a reason why so many people are sick this year and that is it. I could be right now the storm for sunday and monday will be another mix probably. You might as well whenever you see a storm for the rest of winter put in ice or rain drops.

Posted February 11th at 11:05 PM
vinny(utica):

yah mike your right what a dissappointment.what a bad winter.you mind as well bring on spring now cause the way its going does not look good.as far as sunday and monday goes put in the books for a mix,its just that type of year.sorry so negative but hard to be positive.

Posted February 11th at 11:11 PM
Matt Lanza:

As I was telling Jill before, this is more of the winter type weather I am used to in NJ...usually not quite this frequent, but...this is almost ridiculous. I really would like a storm where I can forecast just rain or just snow. Maybe March?

Posted February 11th at 11:15 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

yea, hopefully just snow, because this is getting hard to bare.

Posted February 11th at 11:28 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

No surprise to me! I was actually waiting for the models to come in warmer, since they have for every storm the whole winter. If they didn't come in warmer I would have said something is wrong. Just another forecast and another storm with that darn ice! The only good thing is, every time I have heard 1/2+ inch of ice we have NEVER got it here. We have ALOT of snow though on the ground up this way. My guess is at least a foot in town. Snowbanks on some of the back roads are incredibly high! Some are over 12 foot high. It's funny how areas 10-20" miles south of here such as Ilion have only 3 inches of snow on the ground. All I can say is that if anyone wants snow, come out here to Salisbury/Dolgeville area, or go to the TUG!

Posted February 11th at 11:34 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

might i add, that sunday/mondays storm is now forecast by the gfs, to be a snow to rain ,to flurries scenario, taht was unexpected, ha!!

Posted February 11th at 11:36 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah no surprise there Mike.NAO goes negative during that time though.Something we haven't seen this season outside of the December storm.So we can't write it off yet.I hope we get hit hard with the front end tomorrow.Actually 5-6" would be the second biggest snowfall of the season for me.Could be some decent meso banding so you never know.

Posted February 11th at 11:50 PM
tom:

is this forcast set in stone for tomorrow?any chance we get mostly snow?

Posted February 11th at 11:55 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Even with the mixing, I still think this storm will be a good dumping for us. My early call for us up here is 7 inches folowed by sleet and maybe a little FZR. NWS has us down for 1-2" Tuesday followed by 5-9" Tuesday night. I think Winter Storm Warnings will be issued by morning. I believe it should snow fast enough to reach warning criteria, especially if any meseoscale banding sets up.

Posted February 12th at 12:03 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Michael it'll be interesting to see what headlines NWS throws out tonight.Quite a borderline situation for some areas.Won't be seeing any Heavy Snow Warnings though.That's for sure.

Posted February 12th at 12:11 AM
Matt Lanza:

Tom: Nothing's ever set in stone, but there is little if any chance this is an all snow event.

Michael: I think you will do well with this. I think a solid 4-8" on the front end, then a decent amount of sleet (which is better than frz rain!) and then some back end snow.

Rob: My unscientific guess is WWA for Otsego, Chenango, Madison. WSW for Herkimer and Oneida. Lewis is a toss up. Wouldn't be shocked if BUF went with an HSW there. But I don't know the criteria for those.

Bedtime...a long day for me tomorrow!

Posted February 12th at 1:18 AM
Mike(Leonardsville):

Warnings for Madison County and points north. Looks like a good 3-5 down this way with a ton of ice. Also says no changeover until mid morning. 6-10 up towards Utica with sleet.

Posted February 12th at 5:05 AM
Matt (CB):

Was a big fat zero at 4:30AM when I got up.Hard to say how much snow we had over last cpl days but I am guessing at 4-6.
I love to read about all the people whinning about no snow.Here we have had snow on the ground since just after T Day.The only grass we have seen was on some south sides of the hill during the warm ups.I dug 10 holes on friday and had an average of 8-12 inch base.Two thick layers of ice.
If anyone out there really wants snow,you are more than welcome to come here and snowblow for me anytime.
Matt L.. Thanks for getting rid of those people that messed up the blog over the weekend.

Posted February 12th at 5:42 AM
Matt (CB):

Should have cheched temp before posting last post.Dropped to minus 6 now at 6am.Brrrrrr!

Posted February 12th at 5:55 AM
Tom (Richfield Springs):

It was zero here at 4:45 AM. I don't mind the snow but I hate the rain in the winter, hope the sleet and freezing rain stays south of us.

Posted February 12th at 6:06 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

looks like 3-7 down this way and 6-10 north of route 20 or so, followed by a big mess late tonight and tomorrow morning; im just hoping against any plain rain.

Posted February 12th at 7:08 AM
Piseco Lake:

5 below zero here in the Southern Adirondacks this morning. Hard to believe it will warm up 30+ degrees over the next 24 hours! Hopefully it will stay all snow here.

Posted February 12th at 7:08 AM
Matt (CB):

I see that the wind has shifted out of the east now.It would seem that it should keep the cold locked in so that we see all snow.

Posted February 12th at 7:10 AM
Amy - Remsen:

6 below here in Remsen, was 3 below at 6:30am

Posted February 12th at 7:39 AM
Holly - Cedarville Lake:

Crystal Clear atop Albany Hill - all trees coated with ice - beautiful. Bring on the snow!

Posted February 12th at 8:03 AM
Lisa:

Winter Storm Warnings are up for Southern Herkimer County.

Posted February 12th at 8:21 AM
Jeff(Southern Hills):

Well gonna be gone most of the day, but I will be back later for the start of the fun. Looks like a solid 3-6 or 4-8 snowfall, which will give us close to the 2nd or 3rd highest total for the year, then a nightmare mess of ice. Gonna be a busy 36 hours in the weather department,Hope Matt got some sleep!!!

Posted February 12th at 8:31 AM
Piseco Lake:

Anyone notice the lake effect bands forming across Lake Ontario this morning? They appear to be heading East to West and might affect Toronto. Is this what I'm seeing? I don't think I've ever seen that before... must be quite rare?

Posted February 12th at 8:51 AM
Mel (Westernville):

We ended up with 9.5" from the lake effect, and 3.5" from the Saturday snow for a storm total of 13" - seasonal total up to 105.3", and we have a snowdepth of 14.5", with a heavy crust layer about 6" down - 4 wheeler even stays up on top.

Posted February 12th at 8:54 AM
Holly - Cedarville Lake:

What fun. Our entire front yard is like a skating rink. Birds are "trying" to land on the ground to eat bird seed that fell out of feeder, this is just too funny!

Posted February 12th at 9:03 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Another 1/2" last night.Cool scene this morning with diamond dust falling with the sun peeking through.I can't ever recall seeing a lake band that intense going towards the west end of the lake.That's pretty neat!

Posted February 12th at 9:05 AM
Matt Lanza:

Piseco: Doesn't happen that much! But if you get an east wind and the air is still significantly cold, Ontario can get a dose of LES too.

As has been stated, Winter Storm Warnings are up everywhere, except Otsego and Chenango Counties. Latest NAM just rolling in is even warmer, with some snow, mostly sleet and brings sleet all the way through the Adirondacks. It even warms us up above freezing! I can't recall seeing this drastic a shift by the models in 24 hours. More later.

Posted February 12th at 9:35 AM
Justin (Little Falls):

What a let down, just when you think you'd have just a plain snowstorm, might as well plan for rain now by how the models seem to be trending, sheesh. Too frustrating for a winter sports enthusist

Posted February 12th at 9:48 AM
Holly - Cedarville Lake:

Welcome to Upstate New York! I was getting ready to shine up my sled!

Posted February 12th at 10:09 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

I'm so tired of chopping ice! I'd like to just shovel some plain snow for once. The last icy mix we got, the snow turned into heavy wet slop and froze that night. Talk about back breaking! I was chopping ice from the sidewalks and driveway for a week. I really hope the NAM is way off or completely wrong. This kind of forecast makes my back hurt just thinking about it.

Posted February 12th at 10:14 AM
mike:

i hope that we gt a foot of snow not alot of ice

Posted February 12th at 10:59 AM
DCG - Rome:

Does anyone know if warnings have been posted in Lyme?
Not sure what county that would be in, not even quite sure
where that is. Near St. Lawrence?? Just wondering, need to
travel that way this evening. If anyone has any thoughts
I'd appreciate it!! :-)

Posted February 12th at 11:03 AM
Matt Lanza:

DCG: I believe all of NY north of the Valley is under a warning. You'll hit snow.

Looking at the hard numbers from the latest NAM, and I think the totals we have out there now are good. You can remove the plus signs. The hills of eastern Otsego will end up in the 3-6, not 2-4. But otherwise, all is the same.

In terms of how the event unfolds. Heavy snow to heavy sleet tonight. After midnight we will get dry slotted, so expect a decent lull. More precip arrives tomorrow morning as sleet/freezing rain/rain and changes back over to some snow at the end. A back end thump like we saw in December is unlikely. 3-6 total snow/sleet for Utica.

Posted February 12th at 11:17 AM
Lori in Herkimer:

Lyme is in Jerrerson County. They are also under a winter storm warning.

Posted February 12th at 11:18 AM
DCG - Rome:

Thanks Matt!!!!
Thank you to Lori as well.
Your responses are greatly
appreciated.
Have there been any pm activities
cancelled thus far in anticipation of
this weather??

Posted February 12th at 11:21 AM
Cindy (Ilion):

This forecast is so amazing to me. It just makes me sick that you go from thinking 12" or so to, did I read probably rain now vs. the mix? I didn't see that it was going to get that warm, so how are we getting plain old rain. I thought last I looked it said a high of 30???? Can't get rain from that.

Posted February 12th at 11:22 AM
Matt Lanza:

Cindy: Don't worry...that number will likely be going up later today...not by much..33 or so, but enough.

Posted February 12th at 11:25 AM
DCG - Rome:

Question:
Does anyone have any idea why
I don't recieve comments as they're
posted?? I have to keep clicking on the
weather blog icon.
Am I doing something wrong??
THANKS!!!!!!!

Posted February 12th at 11:30 AM
kelly:

Cindy Im with you also I live in Mohawk and I thought we were suppose to get hit hard but by the ways the weather is unfolding now were lucky if we get 3 inches am I right Matt?

Posted February 12th at 11:42 AM
James (Sauquoit):

Matt: are you still thinking that the precip today will start around rush hour? As a snow lover all of these mixed storms are drag...Anyone up for a round of golf?

Posted February 12th at 11:43 AM
Jenn:

Matt, about what time tomorrow morning should the precipitation arrive in Utica? Just an estimated guess. Thanks

Posted February 12th at 11:46 AM
Mike (N Rome):

Anyone notice how the storms seem to be coming in on Sunday/Wednesday cycles this year? Strange.

DCG: I usually just hit the 'refresh' button to see the new comments. Try that. You may also have to click on the 'comments' link to get back to the comments.

Posted February 12th at 11:48 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

13.6 degrees here. Temp was rising pretty quick for a while this morning, but has now leveled off here. I hope this isn't a repeat of earlier this month. I just wish something would go wrong, and it would go back to mostly snow or a little sleet.

Posted February 12th at 11:50 AM
DCG - Rome:

Mike,
Thank you! I'll try it out.
Back to an earlier question,
any closings/cancellations for
tonight thus far???

Posted February 12th at 11:52 AM
Matt Lanza:

James: Yes, I think snow breaks out after 4 PM. Jenn..I honestly couldn't tell you at this point exactly when things start tomorrow morning, but before sunrise for sure. I'll post a timetable later today.

Posted February 12th at 11:56 AM
Bill Kardas:

New 12z model runs continue to trend warmer. Sleet will be in the picture a few hours sooner. Not feeling good about a big snow out of this, at least from Utica south & east.

Posted February 12th at 11:57 AM
Bill Kardas:

So much for an all snow event. This has happened quite a bit this year with the models not picking up on the warm air until the last minute. Frustrating.

Posted February 12th at 11:59 AM
tom:

nws binghamton disscussion just out still says 6 to 10 inches for mohawk valley and north.

Posted February 12th at 12:04 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Wow, what a disappointment. Personally, I'd rather a foot of snow over the bleeping ice. Are we sure Rome Labs isn't messing with our weather? LOL, kidding. All the storms seem to go either to our north or south and we get basicly nothing, same thing goes for storms in the summer.

Posted February 12th at 12:15 PM
Matt HP:

Haha maybe you guys should start leaning towards a storm with warmer air in the beginning and just say chance of sleet and freezing rain and then hope it goes cold and all snow?

Posted February 12th at 12:25 PM
Matt Lanza:

Tom: This wouldn't be the first time we've disagreed with the NWS forecast from either office. 6-10" in the Valley would shock me. I'd love to bust low on totals for the snow lovers, but...I just don't see it.

Posted February 12th at 12:30 PM
heather (german flatts):

how does it look for travel to cooperstown in the am i need to be there by 8 am as it stands right now..

Posted February 12th at 12:45 PM
Gina ( Trenton Falls):

Looks like the power companies are gearing up for the storm...just watched about 8 NIMO trucks with buckets go by...came down from the power plant at Trenton...

Don't see that too often...so they must think the worst of the worst is on its way!

Posted February 12th at 1:23 PM
NIMO Fan:

Or they just finished changing a light bulb up there.

Posted February 12th at 1:48 PM
Cathy (whitesboro):

Hey NIMO fan keep your ignorant comments to yourself. This blog is for the weather. Gina you are correct, most all of upstate's power companies are on stand-by due to the ice accumulation expected.

Posted February 12th at 2:13 PM
Gina ( Trenton Falls):

this came from a friend of mine who is involved with New York State power authority.

The icing component to these storms (at the temps we have now) always causes problems with power lines, the lower voltages are more affected because the lines are not as strongso thatRs why we see more sectionalized outages, rather than state-wide blackouts

Posted February 12th at 2:32 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

been snowing lightly since about 1230 here, now snowing moderately, looks like a mesoscale bans starting to form across the northern tier of PA, and right around BGM, i would expect close to an inch per hr soon.

Posted February 12th at 2:33 PM
Jenn:

Oh okay, thanks Matt..

so now it looks as if Utica will not be seeing much snow at all? Would 3-6 still be the estimated amount?

Posted February 12th at 2:34 PM
NIMO Fan:

While I do respect and appreciate this blog, I have to defend my statement. In order for it to be ignorant I would have to be either uneducated or uninformed, neither of which is the case here. In fact, I have personal knowledge of the waste within NIMO (Currently known as National Grid) One may argue the comment was insensitive or inappropriate for this blog, but labelling it as ignorant is a better example of ignorance itself. :)
Let us all hope we are not dependant on NIMO repair crews over the next few days

Posted February 12th at 2:52 PM
Andy Forestport:

Storm looks pretty large on the National Radar, I love NIMO, I love giving them my hard earned money during the winter months and yes it is weather realted because the colder it is the more people get ripped off.

Posted February 12th at 3:07 PM
Patty:

Pittsburgh PA is getting hammered with this storm right now (snow) Then they expect ice. Per my sons Doctors that canceled his appointment for tommorrow. They said they have never seen that bad of a storm in that area before. Is the storm going to fizzle a little before it gets to us?

Posted February 12th at 3:12 PM
Matt Lanza:

Folks, just another reminder, the blog is for weather, forecasting and meteorology discussion...not electric bills or power crew placement. If you take issue with that, go discuss it elsewhere please.

Of note...this storm has a major dry slot...very similar to the December storm. We will likely be in that by midnight.

Posted February 12th at 3:14 PM
Gina:

guess i will take my comments elsewhere...like the local forums on Topix!

All i was saying was the danger of icing....screw this blog

Posted February 12th at 3:20 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Heavy snow band coming through PA has dropped 7.5" in Johnstown already.

Posted February 12th at 3:22 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

The snow has begun here, very light right now. I think there is going to be some furious snow bands with this front end. The Weather Channel is reporting 7-10 inches just east of Pittsburgh already today. Looks like right now the warm air is stuck right near the Ohio River. I know the dynamics will bring it faster tonight but I can hope the snow stays longer right???

Posted February 12th at 3:24 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Actually the 3PM report was 8.5" there.

Posted February 12th at 3:24 PM
Jodi ~ (Ilion):

I read earlier today about a big time accident with many cars piled up in PA because of blizzard like conditions. Is it going to get windy here as well with this?... Actually I just went to double check what I read and it was on I-81 and there was a 24 year old Watertown resident killed in it? That's terrible.

Posted February 12th at 3:28 PM
Matt Lanza:

Gina: That was not meant for you. What you said was perfectly fine and is good to know. Thanks for trying to clear things up among the others. I meant for the others to not start complaining about NiMo here...not the place for it. Insight on how they handle things during an ice storm is interesting I think though, so I don't want to discourage that.

For everyone else: Working on the forecast...info coming soon.

Posted February 12th at 3:31 PM
Have Faith:

I'm glad that Ilion has it's own electrical department. We haven't had an outage in a long time. I look forward to this snow storm. Winters in New York are great!!!

Posted February 12th at 3:34 PM
Matt HP:

Gina,
I don't think Matt was referring to you. Your comments were about ice and the local region and why power outages maybe an issue. Which is good for people to know incase they wish to get water out or other things available to prepare for the storm.
I didn't think "ICE" was going to be a big issue with the storm. Are we looking at that as a bigger possibility instead of the sleet?

Posted February 12th at 3:37 PM
Matt HP:

Haha, it took me six minutes to post a comment... Thats pathetic. Yea what Matt said.

Posted February 12th at 3:39 PM
Kate:

Nothing yet in Utica......

Posted February 12th at 3:42 PM
laura in cv:

Just started snowing lightly in village of Cherry Valley

Posted February 12th at 3:55 PM
Cindy ( Ilion):

It is 21 degree and snowing so very lightly here. You really have to look to even notice.

Posted February 12th at 4:01 PM
snox (westmo):

light snow just strated here.... nice job on the timeing!!!!! Matt said around 4 or 5 and what do ya know 402

Posted February 12th at 4:06 PM
vinny(utica):

reading disscusion for sunday and monday storm they say all models show an all snow event for us as it stands now.they also said that is rare for us this year and they are right.lets hope that stays on track.

Posted February 12th at 4:08 PM
Matt Lanza:

Vinny: All models except the Euro...which shows quite a rain event now. Oh well..one storm at a time.

Posted February 12th at 4:11 PM
JessicaM:

I live in Rome near the Base. We always seem to get more snow than what is forecast. How much snow/ice/sleet/freezing rain are we supposed to get? And am i going to have a problem driving to work tomorrow morning? I work in Utica.

Posted February 12th at 4:11 PM
Matt Lanza:

Going 4-8" combined snow/sleet everywhere now, given how heavy the snow has been in PA. But 8-12"+ north of a Rome-Dolgeville line. Map coming soon.

Posted February 12th at 4:13 PM
vinny(utica):

matt,the way things are going i would not be surprised of an all rain event.we are destined for one big storm this year.i just have a feeling march we will have a huge snowstorm.

Posted February 12th at 4:14 PM
Mike(Leonardsville):

Do you still see our area going above 32 tommorow for a high?

Posted February 12th at 4:16 PM
Matt (CB):

19.3 was the high so far and now with a light snow,winds picking up out of the east and temp dropped to 16 degrees.Thought it was gonna warm up?
37 days till spring.

Posted February 12th at 4:31 PM
mike m (binghamton):

about 1.25 inches here so far, not snowing too heavy yet, just moderate. if you look at NWS forecast images they actually have BGM at around 7.5 inches toatal for this storm and about the same for Utica, that would be fine with me. lets hope sunday/ monday storm is all snow for once, but like matt said, one storm at a time.

Posted February 12th at 4:32 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

I agree with you mike, six inches of snow is plenty. Especially with the idea of possibly 2 more storms within the next 7 days.

Posted February 12th at 4:41 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

yea, just took a look at the 18z WRF close up, and it shows the potential of a quater inch or more of qpf for fridays clipper; if it is not too warm that could mean several inches of snow friday and friday night.

Also radar showing heavy bands making their move toward BGM currently. ill keep you all posted

Posted February 12th at 4:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike M: Friday's storm is not going to be a big deal, I don't think. At this point, it looks like mid 30s for highs!

Posted February 12th at 4:49 PM
Matt Lanza:

Tonight's Snow/Sleet Forecast

Posted February 12th at 4:55 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah Mike lots of heavy snow headed your way.Snowfall rates are 1 to 2"/hr coming into State College.

Posted February 12th at 5:07 PM
Ryan(Sauquoit):

So are we looking at a good amount of snow here in Sauquoit. I here about the dry slotting will that effect the morning commute?

Posted February 12th at 5:12 PM
mike m (binghamton):

Rob, ALtoona and johnstown have gone over to sleet, i wonder if state college will follow soon..... matt, yea i noticed temps were suppose to be 35 or so on friday preventing much accumulations, however im skiiing at greek peak on friday night so im hoping they only make it to about freezing friday afternoon with periods of fresh powder!!!

Posted February 12th at 5:28 PM
Matt lanza:

First sign of banding in Northern Oneida...from Hinckley and Ohio in Herkimer over through Remsen and into Glenmore...not sure if this is heavier snow or just the radar showing it snowing heavier aloft. Any reports from that area?

Posted February 12th at 5:34 PM
Ryan(Sauquoit):

Not Snowing at all here in Sauquoit.

Posted February 12th at 5:38 PM
Mike(Leonardville):

Hey Matt, what is the snowfall rate in the snow from Norwich south?

Posted February 12th at 5:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike...not heavy. Totals are a coating to 2" so far. I suspect that will pick up soon.

Posted February 12th at 5:51 PM
Stacy ( Stratford ):

Snowing quite moderately here! Started approximately 4:30pm. Bring on the snow, I hope the 8-12+ holds out. Kids are very excited! Will update later..

Posted February 12th at 5:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

This is a very interesting storm. The Philly area is getting pounded with sleet and freezing rain and temperatures have been falling there. I think since we're on the other side of the mountains, we have it a little easier....and we should warm up, but it is worth noting.

Any and all reports throughout tonight will be much appreciated. Totals, snow rates, mixing, etc. will be the most important to us.

Posted February 12th at 6:04 PM
Justin (Whitesboro):

Hey Matt, when will you think the heavist will come in.

Posted February 12th at 6:07 PM
Matt (CB):

Still at 16 degrees with wind out of the east and had a quick burst of snow in the past hr that coated the roads.Snow has stopped for now.
How do I get a radar in motion on WKTV?

Posted February 12th at 6:08 PM
Amy, Piseco:

Matt,
Yes it started snowing here about 30 minutes ago, snowing moderate now.

Posted February 12th at 6:09 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: Unfortunately you can't. I've been trying to get us a looping radar for awhile now, but other projects have superceded this. Bill and I are going to try and hammer out a script tonight to do that if we can.

Justin: After 8 PM.

Posted February 12th at 6:21 PM
Ryan(Sauquoit):

So by tommorow morning...say 6:00 this will all be rain. No snow or anything?

Posted February 12th at 6:23 PM
Matt Lanza:

Ryan: Potentially. I'm not going to commit either way to that. But I think there's a good chance Utica south changes over by morning. It definitely won't be snow...either sleet, freezing rain or rain.

Posted February 12th at 6:25 PM
Ryan(Sauquoit):

Alright Matt, thanks for the update. I'm hoping it stay snow or sleet!

Posted February 12th at 6:29 PM
MJ (Trenton):

Been steady light snow, occasional moderate since 4:30.
I'd call it moderate now @ 13.9.
Fingers crossed.

Posted February 12th at 6:40 PM
Matt Lanza:

I am very concerned that the dry slot is going to do a number on us. This thing is enormous and is lifting through PA now...maybe arrive in CNY around Midnight. We should still see a solid accumulation before it moves in, but I wonder how much this will cut back on sleet.

Posted February 12th at 6:42 PM
MJ (Trenton):

Doesn't look like a dry slot to me. Looks like a lot of dry air behind another sad excuse for a winter "storm".

Posted February 12th at 6:51 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

the snow is still not adding up very fast here, the flakes are rather small, as usual. only about 2 inches so far. dry slot will probably be here between 10p-1am. it will probably last until 5-7am, and during this dry slot is when we may warm up the most right now we are at 19.2 degrees. it is interesting to note pittsburgh is at 33 while johnstown about 50 miles east and on our side of the mtns is still at 20 degrees, if the cold air keeps damming against mtns, we may not go above freezing; that would do 2 things 1) increase ice accumulations in the 6-10am time period and 20 increase snow potential from 10am on tomrrow east if i81, if temps are below freezing the snow will stick right away tomorrow afternoon, with another 2-4 inches possible.

Posted February 12th at 6:57 PM
Lisa:

Matt, do you mean that if we get a dry slot we could see more snow? Or do you mean we wouldn't get much of anything...sorry if this sounds dumb lol

Posted February 12th at 7:07 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Just a very fine snow here.Only 1/2" so far.

Posted February 12th at 7:13 PM
Chris from Canajoharie:

Snowing moderately here at 718pm. I bet we may have close to a quarter inch of snow.....keep it coming. Temp 15.5 degrees with winds out of the ENE at 7.0 mph

Posted February 12th at 7:24 PM
stevo (rome):

snowing light to moderate here in rome. about 2.5" inches since 4:30

Posted February 12th at 7:26 PM
heather(german flatts):

Matt i was wondering if you can paint me a quick pic of what i am facing driving to cooperstown in the am i need to be there by 8 am for my daughters surgery. Thanks

Posted February 12th at 7:29 PM
Tim (Old Forge):

snowing moderate in old forge 1 inch so far

Posted February 12th at 7:37 PM
Matt Lanza:

Heather: Likely light to perhaps moderate sleet or rain. I doubt you'll hit freezing rain, but that's a possibility. I'm just going to keep that on the low end of the totem pole right now. I think you'll be ok...but..check in in the morning.

Lisa: A dry slot means dry weather...so no sleet and no snow. We'll see if that makes it here.

Posted February 12th at 7:37 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Still light to moderate snow here, jut under 2 inches so far. Like Mike said the snow is very fine. Gonna need some larger flakes or ome heavy duty snow bands to get anything worth writing about before the dry slot (looks more like the end of the storm) comes in.

Posted February 12th at 7:39 PM
Lisa:

Oh thanks for clearing that up Matt, I thought so but I wasn't totally sure....now I feel dumb haha.

Can we still expect a decent amount of snow in the Utica area?

Posted February 12th at 7:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: You can thank the cold air for this I think. We're seeing great snow ratios, but not enough precip. Interesting scenario right now.

Posted February 12th at 7:48 PM
Matt H (Mount Upton):

Moderate snow here maybe 3 inches. Route 8 traffic moving slow.

Posted February 12th at 7:50 PM
Matt Lanza:

Lisa: The map in 110 is the forecast...no going back now! I'll make an adjustment for 11 if I have to based on trends over the next couple hours.

Posted February 12th at 7:50 PM
Brian:

Tim, I'm out of the Old Forge area till Thursday. Would be nice if you keep blog posted on snowfall amounts in Old Forge.

Posted February 12th at 7:54 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

looks like precip wil end or taper off significantly in about an hr or less here...about 3 inches so far, so 3-5 total seems a good bet down here through midnight. im hoping for a snowday tomorrow, so hopefully precip redevelops between 1-4am, and is in the form of snow(very unlikely) sleet or frz rain....and no plain rain!!!

Posted February 12th at 7:59 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

HINT TO EVERYBODY....SHOVEL YOU DRIVEWAYS DURING DRY SLOT...THINK ABOUT HOW BAD IT WILL BE TO SHOVEL WITH SLEET, FRZ RAIN AND POSSIBLY RAIN ON TOP OF THE SNOW!!!

Posted February 12th at 8:00 PM
Jules (Ilion):

>Light to moderate snow about one inch so far..
temp 14 degrees...

Posted February 12th at 8:04 PM
Adirondacks 4 me:

It is 18 degrees and snowing moderate/ heavy here on the hill in Steuben- We are about a mile north of Remsen-

Posted February 12th at 8:18 PM
Laura (West Winfield):

Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! Here's hoping we get alot of snow/winter weather out of this one...

Posted February 12th at 8:21 PM
Kevin:

Snowing moderately right now is Ilion. Maybe an inch on ground right now. Not bad for road conditions.

Posted February 12th at 8:23 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

just got done shoveling about 3 inches off my driveway, it literally felt like i was shoveling sand. steady snow about to end here in next 30 mins.

Posted February 12th at 8:26 PM
John (Ohio - Herkimer Cnty):

Light to moderate snow currently, 1" new so far

Posted February 12th at 8:30 PM
Matt Lanza:

Thinking the dry slot works into our viewing area after 10 PM. I want to look at the 00Z models before I go making any new calls, but I do fear that we might be done with the snow after that point, except maybe in the Adirondacks.

Posted February 12th at 8:30 PM
Adirondacks4me:

Matt- it is hard to tell by looking at the weather map if we will receive much snow in Remsen- we seem to be right on the edge of the cutoff for the higher amounts- what do you think?

Posted February 12th at 8:32 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, you beat me to it, iwas just gonna say only about an hour before the back edge hits Norwhich, and about 2 hrs to Utica, so another 1-2 inches for Utica area.

Posted February 12th at 8:32 PM
Jenn:

Aw, darn...I was hoping to see some decent snowfall!

Posted February 12th at 8:32 PM
Ryan(Sauquoit):

So is there a possibility that the Dry-slot wont reach us and we will get more snow, or sleet.

Posted February 12th at 8:33 PM
Michael A.:

So, once the dry slot hits, we're done..nothing in the morning happening?

Posted February 12th at 8:34 PM
Matt Lanza:

I'm going to reassess this over the next hour. We'll have an updated map out in a bit. The big question is whether or not there is enough lift in the atmosphere to fill the dry slot in here in CNY. That'll be the question.

Posted February 12th at 8:40 PM
Ryan(Sauquoit):

Yeah that is the same thing i'm wondering Michael. All precipitation will stop after the dry slot..Sleet/freezing rain. Snowing very hard here in Sauquoit, must be 3-4 inches out there right now.

Posted February 12th at 8:40 PM
Mike(Leonardville):

So does this dry slot mean that it might not be bad at all tommorow morning for driving around 5:30?

Posted February 12th at 8:57 PM
Matt Lanza:

Bill and I have decided to basically keep the map we had earlier and change the totals. New Snow/Sleet between now and tomorrow? Trace-2" for most areas, 2-5" in the Adirondacks. I'll get the physical map up soon. Once the snow stops in the next 2 hours, that's it. Sleet and spotty freezing drizzle will be around overnight and into the morning. Then, plain rain showers seem possible tomorrow morning, especially south of Utica. Call em as we see em, and this one's busting....except maybe in the Adirondacks.

Posted February 12th at 9:02 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

the 00z NAM sim radar,just in, wants to send the dry slot all the way through utica, and shows a very evident dry slot at 1am. by 7am heavy precip has redeveloped from I81 eastward. models are often a little slow with timing so i wouldnt be surprised to see precip start to redevelop by 2am. also this is afairly big change from the 18z NAM in that is now redevelops the precip from the SE, not NW, what this means, if anything idk.

Posted February 12th at 9:03 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

also 00z NAM has a stronger surface low track across the delmarva late tomrrow morning, the only question is surface temps, if they remain belwo freezing another period of snow is possible. models usually underestimate the westward extent of precip from coastal lows, so in my opinion we could be talking about a period of moderate snow from about 10am through 3pm tomorrow; again this all hinges on surface temps, but we could see 2-4 inches esp over the catskills.

Posted February 12th at 9:08 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Just went out and measured again.Only 1.5" here.

Posted February 12th at 9:11 PM
roady:

Another strange storm indeed. Today my travels took me from Binghamton to Roscoe. On the trip down you could see it snowing in the hilltops for a long time but nothing hit the ground for hours. Must have been very low dew points?

The NYC Pepacton reservoir is full. And you can still see mega damage on 206 from the summer flood.

3" here now and still snowing moderately @ 17*.

Posted February 12th at 9:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

That said, locally heavy snow is going to lift through here before the dry slot...so I would expect further deteriorating road conditions shortly.

Posted February 12th at 9:29 PM
MatT(Marcy):

looks like the dry slot will come early but thats good because that means the heavy round will come earlier too yay right now moderate snow 3.5inches so far ill check back later

Posted February 12th at 9:29 PM
Gavin (Rochester):

Changeover starting now (9:30) after about 2" of snow....

Posted February 12th at 9:36 PM
Matt Lanza:

Binghamton keeping up the Warnings for everyone (except Finger Lakes). Buffalo downgraded everyone to an Advisory except Oswego, Jeff and Lewis Counties. Waiting to hear from Albany.

Posted February 12th at 9:37 PM
roady:

Screaching halt. Who turned off the snowmaker? It quit just like a light switch was turned off.

Posted February 12th at 9:43 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I thought for sure they would downgrade the warnings here.I don't think I will even make it to adisory snows.The snow has picked up but visability is still a mile or more.

Posted February 12th at 9:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

Dry slot will approach Rt 20 by 10:30.

Posted February 12th at 10:02 PM
Matt HP:

Looks like a nice band moving through the area? perhaps a quick inch or two through it

Posted February 12th at 10:03 PM
Cindy (Ilion):

The snow is coming down at a pretty good rate here right now. The hardest since this all started. It was wierd, I had to go out around 9:15 and it was barely snowing, when I went back out about 45 min later it was snowing hard. A pleasant surprise. I hope that dry slot doesn't move in and this keeps up. We can hope right?

Posted February 12th at 10:05 PM
Matt Lanza:

Looks like extremely heavy snow now in NW Oneida County (1-2" per hour perhaps)...just north and west of Utica.

Posted February 12th at 10:07 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Moderate snow now.Flakes are also alot bigger.Been steady at 15 degrees.

Posted February 12th at 10:07 PM
Mike(Leonardsville):

Cindy, there is no way this dry slot misses us. I also noticed that sleet is starting to mix in Cortland County so I think this is it for snow. How long is this dry slot going to last and have you seen any hints for the sunday/monday storm?

Posted February 12th at 10:07 PM
Dan:

Looks like ALB is going with the Adv as well. Somewhat depressing.

Posted February 12th at 10:09 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Not looking out that far. But the dry slot should last for much of the night. We will get some sleet, freezing drizzle or light rain later tonight toward morning, but I would suspect that most areas are in better shape by then.

Posted February 12th at 10:10 PM
Mike(Leonardsville):

Binghamton dropped the winter storm warnings for Oneida and Madison counties, looks like another bust of a storm.

Posted February 12th at 10:10 PM
Matt Lanza:

Binghamton has pushed back and cancelled Warnings. Advisories now in effect.

Posted February 12th at 10:12 PM
Kevin (whitesboro):

I am so mad! It seems as if every single storm this winter has this happening!

Posted February 12th at 10:12 PM
Cindy (Ilion):

I see that NOAA still has my area under a winter storm warning, and the Utica area under an advisory. Any idea why? Mike, I was hoping you weren't going to tell me about that dry slot..LOL What a bummer. I guess I will get the kids clothes ready for morning then huh?

Posted February 12th at 10:14 PM
Matt Lanza:

Cindy: YOu are covered by a different NWS office (Albany). They won't be changing advisories/warnings until Midnight. Spoke to my friend who works there and he doesn't think they will pull them down.

Regardless... our forecast is for...not much.

Posted February 12th at 10:18 PM
Linnette in Waterville:

I live 2/10 of a mile off of Rt 20 here in Waterville. Snow has totally stopped. Received around 5 inches of fine snow.

Posted February 12th at 10:20 PM
Anthony:

Looking south........looks like we may be starting to tap the atlantic......look due south of the dry slot......VERY Heavy snow here in N.Marcy....about 4-5" so far and windy...... starting to think about the system out in MI.....I think it could get interesting tomorrow....if it can catch up with the eastern storm maybe it really blows up........ maybe NWS quitting on this to early

Posted February 12th at 10:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

Anthony: I honestly think the coastal will be wayyy far east and the low over Michigan is going to fall apart. I would have pulled back too.

Posted February 12th at 10:27 PM
No one special:

Please tell all the weather team to NEVER EVER say that "there might be a lot of school closings and delays tomorrow" like they did this morning. It gets the kids all excited and crazy, then when weather changes, the kids get miserable.

Posted February 12th at 10:30 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

anthony, i concur somewhat at least lol first off, area of hvy precip and convection riding NNE from near harrisburg pa and it should be into BGM around midnight, this will in all likelyhood be sleet/frz rain for almost everyone( except north country,maybe)and as this area of precip rides north i beleive it expands(due to strong lift in atmosphere,and developing low pressure) and eventually starts to pivot, maybe even a bit westward(this is sometime tomorrow morning) eventually(around 10am-noon) the frz rain sleet(and poss some rain) will chnage over to snow, and we could get a period of heavy snow from a BGM to utica line SE. this MIGHT accumulatte 2-4 inches. this is esp true if we can really tap deep atlantic and gulf moisture, which i think we have a shot at. best chance for additional snow accumulation tomorrow will be in otsego and delaware county, above 1600 feet in elevation.

Posted February 12th at 10:31 PM
Eric:

Any idea what time the dry slot will fill in with R/S/FR in the morning? Every place I look it has a different answer LOL!

Posted February 12th at 10:35 PM
Matt Lanza:

Eric: I'm going to say around daybreak. Moisture slowly progressing north up the Appalachians and east from WNY. So a solid 3-5 hours of drying here through 2-4 AM and then precip should slowly work back in.

Posted February 12th at 10:39 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, do you think itll be more like 12-1 am for BGM? also what is your take on BGM and or Utica getting above frz?

Posted February 12th at 10:40 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

00z WRF is deffinetly colder with surface temps, it only gets utica to 33 and BGM to 34, for a few hr period before temps fall to frz by 1pm.

Posted February 12th at 10:47 PM
Matt Lanza:

So the radar loop restores my confidence that we're not 100% done yet. That area of sleet/freezing rain in E Pa is on a beeline for us. That would arrive in Binghamton around 1-2 AM and here between 3-5 AM. Could be a burst of heavy sleet toward daybreak. Be prepared for that potential tomorrow morning. This isn't exactly what we thought it would be, but I don't want people thinking this is 100% over.

Posted February 12th at 10:49 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Toss out the models right now. They've done miserably on this. I'm not even going to look at the 00Z NAM...ran our in-house model to get a read. Saw it was almost 10 degrees off already...so it's all radar-casting from this point.

Posted February 12th at 10:50 PM
Matt Lanza:

New Map up for tonight.

Posted February 12th at 10:55 PM
Brian:

Looks like dry slot slowing down. Maybe not to much further north.

Posted February 12th at 10:55 PM
Matt Lanza:

Also, you may notice sleet beginning shortly, especially west and north of Utica, as the tail end of the precip moves through. This will occur over the next hour or so...and then the mega-dry slot builds in.

Posted February 12th at 10:55 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

10 degrees off temps wise...too warm ? and what about freezing, are you able to make a call on that or would you rather not lol ;) dont u love CNY winter storms!!!

Posted February 12th at 10:56 PM
Matt Lanza:

Watch the thermometer steadily rise for the rest of the night. Keeping my 36 for tomorrow.

Posted February 12th at 10:59 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Snow has ended here.Heavy sleet now falling.Received 2.5" of snow.

Posted February 12th at 11:04 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

ok well see what happens temps wise, stranger things have happened. im up to 21.0 now from 20.1 about 90 mins ago.

Posted February 12th at 11:10 PM
Linnette in Waterville:

Freezing Rain just starting here. Vehicle is starting to ice over.

Posted February 12th at 11:10 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Now over to mostly frz rain.

Posted February 12th at 11:21 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Just drove back from Rome and very heavy snow - 15 degrees and 4" of snow so far.

Posted February 12th at 11:23 PM
mike m(binghamton):

matt, is it just me or does it look like that precip over eastern PA really wants to slide East of BGM and Utica now, this is getting frustrating!!!

Posted February 12th at 11:27 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Just imagine what your next four years at Oswego are going to be like! :) Kidding of course, but that's our world....frustrating.

Posted February 12th at 11:32 PM
Jake (Clark Mills):

Well, another yawn of a storm. Personally I think the weather likes teasing us, this one started out looking like we were finally going to get something then it just fizzles out, oh and we can't forget the bleeping freezing rain. I'd rather get more snow then put up with the ice.

Posted February 12th at 11:34 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

17.2 degrees here with no precip. Precip fell as completely snow and we picked up 3.5" inches here. Main roads are in good shape, but still snow covered. Secondary roads and streets are not plowed, but still passable. These dry slots are a real pain! I can't complain if it doesnt't snow anymore here, because we have PLENTY of snow on the ground. I will gladly take anything I can get though.

Posted February 12th at 11:38 PM
LISA=Oriskany:

SO whats your thoughts on the Morning Commute in the Rome/Utica area??

Posted February 12th at 11:38 PM
Matt HP:

Heavy sleet has been falling for the past 20 minutes. Maybe a half inch of sleet in that time period.

Posted February 12th at 11:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

Lisa: Like I said at the end of the 11...it's touch and go. It's tough to say right now. Adam will have to guide you through that. I think we'll have some pockets of sleet around, but...nothing severe. But I'm not willing to bet on anything right now.

Posted February 12th at 11:48 PM
laura in cv:

In Cherry valley we have about 21/2" to 3" of sand like snow and it is 17 degrees. Snow has stopped.

Posted February 12th at 11:50 PM
Larry on Military Road:

Hi Gang:

Snow stopped here about half an hour ago but the wind has increased and is really moving the snow that did fall. Observations at this location as of 22:45 are as follows: Overcast with blowing snow; 17 degrees; barometer: 30.09" F: Wind is SE @ 8 - 22 mph (gust 27 mph) and snowfall measured is S - 2.6". Getting ready for round 2 & some sleet. By the way I'm at 1020' elevation.

Posted February 12th at 11:52 PM
Matt Lanza:

Last post until probably 1:30 or so, if then....

Heaviest core of sleet and freezing rain to our south is going toward the Capital Region. I would venture to say that unless something new pops up, our entire viewing area (except where the snow/sleet is making its final push through) will be clear through at least 2 AM. We'll reassess in a bit.

Posted February 12th at 11:58 PM
Rich ( Westford):

Matt, I think i have your forecasts figured out now. I,m going to take your predicted snowfall amounts and reduce them by 85% than add .25" of liquid precip. By using this formula I,ll have an accurate forecast. Can we nail one of these events? I understand the difficulty but maybe we should skip the predictions and just wait for the reported totals and save some face.

Posted February 13th at 12:24 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt we are up to 24.4 degrees now, why are we rising so quickly while areas like state college pa and harrisburg are not?

Posted February 13th at 12:37 AM
Sarah:

So at approx. what time are we thinking this "event" will continue?

Posted February 13th at 1:02 AM
Matt Lanza:

Rich: I'd be glad to share my verification of past snowfall events this winter with you, because (and I'm not bragging here...just being straight), they've been darn good. Feel free to email me if you would like copies of them. To the best of my knowledge, we've had by far the most accurate depiction of snow events this winter of anyone in CNY or anyone who forecasts CNY (we were the first to latch on to the sleet idea in mid December, we were one of the few to stick to mostly rain/frz rain during the last rain/ice event and we've done extremely well in the LES department). So I admitted the bust. I confess on this one...this is the first event this winter where I really feel like I busted. At least I have the confidence in myself and honesty to be straight with everyone. Anyway, why not post your total so maybe next time I'll have something to work with. According your math, you received 0.6"-1.2" snow and a quarter inch of rain? Your report would certainly be an outlier, seeing that everyone to our south received 2-4" of snow.

As for the event...dry slot continues to hold strong. I see some sleet/freezing rain development to our south. I would foresee that working in here toward 4-5 AM...again very hit/miss and scattered in nature, so not everyone sees it. Otherwise, looks like aside from a few showers of sleet or rain tomorrow morning, just light snow or flurries by afternoon. We're basically done.

Posted February 13th at 1:29 AM
Denys (East Winfield):

5:25 am - 24 degrees, light freezing rain falling. We got 3 inches of snow.
Matt, I have to tell you that you have been right on the money for our forcasts this winter. (even when I wanted you to be wrong for snow totals, wanted more!) When everyone else predicted more, you were realistic. I for one, appreciate your love for weather, and your accuracy. Keep up the good work! (and brag away if you want to!, you deserve it!)

Posted February 13th at 5:36 AM
Jim:

This dry slot over Utica seems about ready to close up with a pretty large system underneath us on the radar moving in. With the temps still below freezing, what will this give us this morning?

Posted February 13th at 5:56 AM
Piseco Lake:

4 inches of snow last night in Piseco. Sleet began at 5:00 a.m. and continues now. Current temperature is 19 degrees. Wells, NY is reporting freezing rain at this time.

Posted February 13th at 7:01 AM
Matt(CB):

Was out snowblowing at 5 am. We have just under 3 inches and temp was 24.Just came in from finishing and it is 30 out with freezing rain.The driveway is a skatting rink now.
Matt Lanza called this one right. AGAIN...Stop picking on Matt and the weather team.People are being fooled by the others out there adding their predictions.

Posted February 13th at 7:31 AM
Abner (Holland Patent):

Drive in from HP to New Hartford was questionable Fox Rd. out of Holland Patent is a sheet of ice. I'm all about accepting the fact that we live in CNY and this sort of weather is to be expected. I can't understand why schools get closed at the drop of a hat for 3+ inches of snow which is very easy to drive in...but we get 3+ inches of snow with ice on top of it and most are delayed or open.

Posted February 13th at 7:40 AM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

Any approaching storm system over 8 hours out this year has been a crap shoot. Constantly changing. However, once within 8 hours, I would take matt to Vegas and bankroll him, he has been dead on the money all winter long. It is not his fault that they crap out. I just hope all this negativity that some people throw out here on this blog does not make Matt gunshy about giving us early heads up on these things.

Posted February 13th at 7:57 AM
MJ (Trenton):

I too think people might be getting confused by multiple "forecasts". Not sure how you prevent weather enthusiasts from forecasting, or any enthusiast from predicting outcome of their respective interest.
That said, weathermen who get it right 50/50 are a dime a dozen, we're fortunate to have someone like Matt, must be about 90-95%.
Enjoy Matt while he's here, won't be long before a bigger city lures him away.

Posted February 13th at 8:17 AM
Mel (Westernville):

All snow here and 24 degrees.

Posted February 13th at 8:28 AM
Andy Forestport:

Snowing here still pretty decent, recieved probably 6 inches last night, no change over here that I Know of.

Posted February 13th at 8:46 AM
mike m (binghamton):

well the unbelieveable has happened, im up to 32.7 with plain rain!!! it is most likely going to pour for the next 4-5 hrs, perhaps washing all the snow away yay!!! i love this winter!!!

Posted February 13th at 8:55 AM
Piseco Lake:

Abner,

Last I looked pretty much everyone IS closed today - for good reason. Check wktv.com and wgy.com and you will see that for the most part all schools in CNY are closed today. They made the right decision on this one.

Posted February 13th at 8:57 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Given the returns on the radar must be sleet along and south of the Thruway. Snowing moderate here with 1/2 mile visibility.

Posted February 13th at 9:01 AM
Gordon (Northwestern):

As of 9 AM, light to moderate snow falling, Visibility 9/16 of a mile, temp=28.5, We had 4.7" of snow up to now.

Posted February 13th at 9:02 AM
Mel (Westernville):

None of the schools over here in Oneida County are closed today - saw one or two delays. Gotta be worse out than it was Monday. Still snowing moderately.

Posted February 13th at 9:09 AM
Jim in North Utica:

Freezing rain and some sleet mixing in here, coming down pretty good. the driveway is a skating rink.

Posted February 13th at 9:10 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Not sure what the radar is seeing........ IT has done almost nothing here in the last two hours. Very light rain and the temp right at freezing so its not really sticking to anything. The radar makes it look much worse then it is. Not really sure why they closed schools, the roads (even secondary I live on one) will be fine in an hour.

Posted February 13th at 9:19 AM
George (Ilion):

Just saw on the Weather Channel that NYC jumped from 39 to 51 in the last hour!

Posted February 13th at 10:03 AM
Ken ( S Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

appears to be freezing rain outside now just noticed ice building on the tree in front of my window

Posted February 13th at 10:13 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Ken it has been all frz rain here this morning.About 1/8" of ice so far.

Posted February 13th at 10:17 AM
Chris:

I'm in Syracuse right now and it is snowing, and the roads look slushy

Posted February 13th at 10:21 AM
Matt Lanza:

Well one thing that has gone as expected is that the cold air got out of most of here overnight and we should see a slow rise today...or at the very least, temps will hold steady....and it looks like snow will gradually work its way back through if it hasn't already (I see Rome flipped over). I could see some freezing rain in Otsego, Herkimer, Fulton, Montgomery and Hamilton Counties, especially in the typically colder spots. So slippery travel is still possible, but since temperatures are near freezing or above it, problems should (hopefully) be minimal.

Thanks for the props, but let's not call it what it is. I was cautious, but 2-4" isn't 4-8" and 3-6" isn't 8-12"...it happens. Maybe we'll make my totals with some of the snow today. :) A couple of reasons WHY it didn't pan out? The air was a bit too cold...I'm guessing the snow growth zone wasn't as prolific as expected on the models..so the flake size last night way way too small for rapid accumulation, like they were seeing in PA earlier in the day (that's the main reason I went 4-8"...I was going to go 2-4" south and 4-8" central until I saw totals in PA and the radar). Second? We knew there would be a dry slot, but...not quite this kind of dry slot. We would have made my totals with another hour or two of sleet in the area...which just didn't materialize. Let's see what happens today.

Keep us posted on p-type in your backyard and if it's snow, sleet or ice, any update on amounts would be appreciated. Thanks!

Posted February 13th at 10:24 AM
Matt HP:

Drove to rome this morning, I have never heard so many accidents coming in on the scanner, fire departments were getting two and three calls within 10 minutes of each other. Some serious, some not so much. Roads were still horrible about 45 min ago.
Lots of sleet and ice, and temp just hit 32 degrees.

Posted February 13th at 10:29 AM
mark:

these storm systems need to start coming up the hudson or the coast and we need to get clobered!! only if it woulda keept snowing last night...this warm air overrunning the colder air is just getting to be annoying....we were at twenty degrees last night....prime for a good snow fall and now the warm air overspreads...its just unbelievable....this winter just sucks

Posted February 13th at 10:30 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Still snowing here - will go out an take another measurement around lunch time. Up to 30 degrees. You can see it on the Woods Valley Webcam at http://www.woodsvalleyskiarea.com/html/webcam.html

Posted February 13th at 10:43 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Starting to transition to snow now.Some big flakes are mixing in.

Posted February 13th at 10:44 AM
Andy Forestport:

Anything else on the horizon?

Posted February 13th at 10:56 AM
Melissa(little falls):

Still freezing rain here!

Posted February 13th at 10:59 AM
mike m(binghamton):

12z NAM paints a stripe of 2-4 inches of snow from BGM to just SE of utica, i can deffinetly see how this happens, pending surface temps drop below freezing by noon. we are at 33.1 here now. rain is changing to snow across NW Broome county(15 miles NW of me) already, so in about 30-60 mins i expect snow here.

Posted February 13th at 11:07 AM
Sarah:

Snowing pretty good in Stittville. I drove from N.Utica to HP and Stittville this morning....not good at all. I am guessing it isn't great now, either.

Posted February 13th at 11:13 AM
Matt Lanza:

Flipped to snow in New Hartford. Looks like a very wet snow. Probably low ratios...I would expect another 1-2" maybe.

Posted February 13th at 11:17 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Climbed up to 33 close to 34 degrees this morning with light rain. Would love to see the temp drop and precip turn back over but not sure if that will happen. I am so stuck on my driveway condition as well. Can not shovel 250 feet with it this heavy and its way to wet underneath to snowplow. Best thing that can happen now is a good hard freeze!!!! Anyway...how are the next two storms looking????

Posted February 13th at 11:19 AM
roady:

back to snow an hour ago, ice in the trees and the secondary roads are a mess here in Plymouth.

Posted February 13th at 12:17 PM
Matt Lanza:

Quick update on the next two systems...based on latest model guidance. Friday's "Storm" was never a storm to begin with...just a quick hitting system...and I still think a general 1-3" if that is plausible this far out. I am more concerned with Sunday and Monday's storm though. It's going to get mighty cold here on Saturday and with the storm tracking to our west, this isn't going to be snow (interpreting the model literally). We will at some point warm up enough for rain, based on the latest info, but I would be concerned...again...with sleet or freezing rain before we get to that point. I'll investigate this some more later.

Posted February 13th at 12:23 PM
Alex(little falls):

started snowing here again about an hour ago. About 1/8" of ice now. and some braches are comming of the trees in my backyard.about 2inches of snow

Posted February 13th at 12:27 PM
Piseco Lake:

Still snowing here in Piseco, it has stayed snow all day thus far. We've gotten more snow during the day today today than we did overnight. Haven't measured, but it's impressive.

Posted February 13th at 12:35 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Turned back to snow here, and if the dpw were to get out and actually sand the back roads they would be clear too. My driveway is an absolute mess but at least now I can get out.

Posted February 13th at 12:47 PM
Brad (Oneonta):

Got 4 inches last night and then a good few hours of freezing rain this morning which turned to plain rain. Ice again all over everything. Does it ever just plain snow anymore? I have gone through more salt in my trucks this year than I ever have before.

Posted February 13th at 12:58 PM
Brian:

Matt, your snowfall amounts are starting to verify accross the north country. If you watch Chrisys Motel blog from Old Forge, Steve reports 6-8" has fallen.

Posted February 13th at 1:00 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

The radar has filled in on the back side and the snow has begun to fall moderate to heavy at times with a very large snowflake compared to last night. Is this precip going to continue to back into the area??? The back end doesnt seem to be making much of a surge eastward??

Posted February 13th at 1:05 PM
MJ (Trenton):

RE: Sunday--
Let me guess, snow changing to mix to rain...of course a dry slot thronw in, then back to snow on back-end, say 1"-3" total? Another sloppy/icy mess, cant wait.

Posted February 13th at 1:09 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Temp above freezing now as ice is melting.Light/moderate snow since 11am.Only 1/2" so far.

Posted February 13th at 1:16 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

moderate to hvy snow here, however temp is still at 33.1, if it were 2 degrees colder we would see this snow accumulating much faster, even so about .75 inches in the past hr....this snow may last another 4-6 hrs here. for 2-4 inches of accumulations, which ties what we had yesterday lol

Posted February 13th at 1:25 PM
MG(Point Rock):

Matt, the BGM forecast discussion says that the models are keeping the Sunday/Monday storm passing to the east--are they looking at a different set of models?

Posted February 13th at 1:50 PM
Matt Lanza:

I guess the snow amounts will come close to verifying after all. Sometimes it doesn't work out exactly how you expect, but it still works out. Getting some lunch and getting in...more from there.

Posted February 13th at 1:53 PM
Jessica (South Utica):

It looks like it is coming down pretty good here. Heavy wet snow. Does anybody know when its supposed to clear up? And am i going to have tough time getting home tonight(Rome)?

Posted February 13th at 2:04 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

very intense snowfall here, flakes the size of half dollars coming down, and this looks to last for quite a while, as we are now in the deformation zone of a developing area of low pressure.

MG, that forecast discussion is old, from yesterday when the models did show the storm going east, now most models have it going west of us, lets really hope for a switch back east.

Posted February 13th at 2:13 PM
Gordon (Westernville):

As of 2 PM I have picked up 1.5" of snow since my last post at 9 AM. That gives me a total of 6.2" for the storm. I can't believe how many people on this Blog have questions about driving, and are they going to be able to go here or go there, will they be able to get to or from work! Did half the bloggers just move up here from the deep south? I have lived on a hill ouside Northwestern for 16 years, and there was only once I couln't go where I wanted, or get to work in Rome, and that was because of a flooded road and not snow or ice, And no I don't have a 4-wheel drive. Even had to work that saturday afternoon back in March of 1993 when we got the Famous blizzard of 1993, and I had no trouble going to or getting back from work.

Posted February 13th at 2:20 PM
Jessica (South Utica):

Gordon: I have lived in Central New York all of my life so yes i do know how the weather is here. However, I was just wondering how the roads were, since my faith in the Oneida County DPW has completely diminished. I do have four wheel drive, but guess what doesn't work on ice???? Now unless you are going to tell me about the road conditions on Rt. 840 to Judd Road to Rt. 233, then keep your comments to yourself. Still coming down here.

Posted February 13th at 2:29 PM
MG(Point Rock):

Mike M -- thanks for straightening me out!

Posted February 13th at 2:38 PM
Matt Lanza:

It's taking it's sweet time, but the back edge of the snow is finally approaching the Camden area now. SNow should begin to taper to flurries from west to east over the next 2 hours or so.

Posted February 13th at 2:53 PM
kelly:

Jessica I just came from Utica down on 5s and the roads were horrible even the main highways. I have not been on any of the roads that you mentioned but I am assuming that all the roads are crappy hope you get home safe Good Luck

Posted February 13th at 2:56 PM
Ryan(Sauquoit):

Weather is so unpredictable.....Wishing for a good snow maker to come into our area sometime this Winter season.

Posted February 13th at 2:57 PM
Truthsayer:

Here Here Gordon ... i totally agree with you why do people ask if i can get here or there i think matt has enough problems getting the forcast up because it changes on him from hour to hour So gordon ..right on!! i thought your comments were perfect ... as for jessica if you need traffic reports you should start your own blog and educate yourself, this is a discussion about weather matt deals in weather ... mapquest can help you with roads and turning on the radio might help you know the conditions of them and if they are closed.

Posted February 13th at 3:03 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Backside of this storm got pretty interesting for awhile.Snow has tappered off for the most part here.Total storm accumalation of 4.0"

Posted February 13th at 3:11 PM
Ken ( S Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

Roads are not that great out there....just take your time and use caution, thats the best advice. still snowing lightly here, has been all day, and i must say the trees look kind of nice with the glaze of ice and snow on them....finally looks like winter.

Posted February 13th at 3:13 PM
Andy Forestport:

Matt

Just a heads up when WKTV sends out there news emails it has said "warm and fair" under weather at the bottom of the page since summer.

Posted February 13th at 3:21 PM
Matt Lanza:

Andy: To be honest, I had no idea we sent news emails out. I'll let someone know. Thank you!

Posted February 13th at 3:27 PM
Karen ~~Westmoreland:

Jessica~~~ I just got home and I live off of 233..I come off of 365 however so not sure how 840 or Judd Road is but 233 isn't to bad as long as you take it easy....

Posted February 13th at 3:32 PM
Lisa:

I hope this lets up soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please dont be mad at me for asking this but I just wondered how the main rds are, like Rte 49, or Oriskany Blvd?

Posted February 13th at 3:39 PM
Frank (Marcy):

Interesting to hear and see how bad roads are everywhere.
News story with video new today on WKTV website describes how good a job DOT crews did keeping up with the storm. Unfortunatley it was a DOT guy saying what a good job they did, LOL.
Hey WKTV, next time take a look around some roads, don't just go ask DOT how good they did. Your misleading folks who would really like to know what shape the roads are in, from an unbiased source.

Posted February 13th at 3:45 PM
sw:

i think people should leave there comments about snowplow drivers to their self. my hubby gives up alot of time on holidays weekends ect. to keep our roads safe. thanks

Posted February 13th at 4:06 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

still snowing hard here, although radar trends show it becoming lighter soon. about 2.5 inches from this second round so far, im sure there are some areas around here that got closer to six inches this afternoon(elevations above 1600 feet, where is was below frz the whole storm) we had 3.0 inches from round one, so that puts us at 5.5 total so far.

Posted February 13th at 4:08 PM
laura in cv:

Matt Lanza FYI: the school closing link at the top of this page takes me to the February 1st school closing list. I'm not sure if the list is accurate & date is just wrong or what. School closing list on WKTV home page has correct date. Sorry if i'm repeating something you already know. Still showing in Cherry Valley!

Posted February 13th at 4:20 PM
laura in cv:

that is "snowing" in Cherry Valley...

Posted February 13th at 4:21 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Still snowing here....Roads has gotten very treacherous. Just under 6 inches from the storm so far, and its a heavy snow!!

Posted February 13th at 4:25 PM
Matt Lanza:

Laura: You may want to refresh your web browser...it works fine here!

Posted February 13th at 4:34 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

snow starting to taper off here, just light snow now, which should continue for another 1-2 hrs; matt, what is you gut feeling on sunday/mondays storm?

Posted February 13th at 4:43 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike every ensemble and model pints to a track over us or to the west.Just to top it off the NAO has now gone positive during that time.Imagine that!

Posted February 13th at 4:53 PM
Matt Lanza:

Final snow totals would be much appreciated before 5:30 or so! I'd like to put together a list.

Posted February 13th at 4:58 PM
MikeD:

Rob, that's not good. Ah yes, two new snowmobiles in the garage with ZERO miles still on them.

Posted February 13th at 4:59 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike M: A small amount of snow to sleet/freezing rain to a soaking rain.

Posted February 13th at 4:59 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Storm total-4.0"
Seasonal total-64.5"

Posted February 13th at 5:01 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt,sounds sweet lol just what we want!!! up to 3.0 inches for round two here, still snowing lightly, but probably no more appreciable accumulation; that puts my storm total at 6 inches, but only 4.75 on the ground( due to rain this morning)

Posted February 13th at 5:15 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Storm total is 4.0" inches here. Back roads are HORRIBLE!!! At least 4" inches of slop and slush on them, and now temperatures are falling as well. Shovel your driveways and sidewalks out ASAP, before everything freezes up.

Posted February 13th at 5:36 PM
lb (Cedarville):

Oh, I wish my camera could have caught the rich oranges and pinks reflecting off the ice and snow on each branch here in the woods. We had about 5 minutes of a great light show on the hilltop south of Ilion as the sun went down... Couldn't see the sun itself but it left behind something special. BTW, where can I find the sunrise/sunset times? I'm loving these longer days!

Posted February 13th at 5:36 PM
Tim (Old Forge):

Storm total 7 inches in Old Forge

Posted February 13th at 6:04 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

6" from the storm total.

63.5" total for the year.

Posted February 13th at 6:11 PM
Matt(Marcy):

6inches last night 5 today storm total 12.3inches and a quarter inch of ice

Posted February 13th at 7:42 PM
Matt Lanza:

New entry up.

Posted February 13th at 8:29 PM
Avazo:

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Posted April 29th at 4:28 AM

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