Short spring & possible severe storms...

Posted May 28th, 2013 by Bill Kardas. 22 comments

I hope you had the chance to enjoy the BEAUTIFUL Memorial Day weather!  It took long enough, but spring has returned.  It has been quite a short spring this year, all thanks to a late start and what now looks to be an early finish.  Spring is traditionally the shortest season in our area, but this year is exceptionally short.

Tracking the warm front

A warm front will be responsible for our weather over the next 36 hours.  This front will intially bring high clouds this morning, followed by thicker clouds this afternoon...and eventually some rain and thunderstorms by tonight and tomorrow.  The first round of rain showers, if it holds together, should arrive by the late afternoon.  This shield of rain will combat dry air in the area, which will serve to slow down the intial round of rain. 

Thunderstorms tonight?

The warm front approaches the area tonight.  Our forecasting models are showing possible thunderstorms dropping in from the west overnight.  We saw a similar setup last week.  We'll see if they survive the trip across the state tonight.  They aren't expected to be severe, but could still drop a decent amount of rain.

Stronger storms tomorrow

SPC has CNY in slight risk for severe weather.  Slight risk means there's a 15% chance of severe weather (quarter size or larger hail, 58mph+ wind gust) occuring at any point within 25 miles.  When looking at CNY as a whole, the odds of severe weather occuring become larger (we're looking at a larger area, rather than one point).

The warm front is expected to cross the area late Wednesday morning.  A spike in the humidity will be felt once the front passes.  The setup is similar to last week, though the front is more progressive.  That means we do have a window of severe weather to watch - particularly in the early afternoon.  The ingredients are all there - instability, wind shear, and a trigger.  We'll have more details on the specifics tomorrow - as it all banks on the warm front position.

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  1. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Leading edge of today’s rain has arrived in Madison, Chenango, SW Otsego County. It’s expected to stall out across CNY – should make it as far east as Utica. Close call – dry air and front are in battle mode now.

    Posted May 28th at 12:56 PM

  2. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Wonder if that line of storms will survive the trek across the state?

    Posted May 28th at 5:57 PM

  3. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Neil,

    Looks like it is holding together pretty good. Probably won’t be severe but could wake you up tonight.

    Posted May 28th at 7:11 PM

  4. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    There’s a tornado warning with that cell to the East of Erie, PA

    Posted May 28th at 8:24 PM

  5. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I saw two reports of a confirmed tornado on the ground in Union City, PA. Power flashes and damage to homes.

    Posted May 28th at 9:11 PM

  6. Rob (Whitesboro):

    There are tornadoes on the ground in Michigan too.

    Posted May 28th at 9:25 PM

  7. Jill Reale (Utica):

    The northern line of showers and thunderstorms looks to be weakening as it pushes east.

    Posted May 28th at 9:46 PM

  8. Rob (Whitesboro):

    CAPE is 2500 tomorrow on the NAM. That’s more than enough to get things going.

    Posted May 28th at 10:20 PM

  9. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Missed most of the rain again. Just .06” of rain today as of 11:58 PM.

    Posted May 28th at 11:59 PM

  10. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    55 degrees, calm, overcast, 0.95” of rain overnight.

    Posted May 29th at 5:02 AM

  11. Denys (East Winfield):

    56 degrees, overcast, rain with a light wind. 0.8” of rain overnight.

    Posted May 29th at 5:31 AM

  12. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    Rain and light wind here now also.

    Posted May 29th at 5:34 AM

  13. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    58* here with .25” of rain overnight.

    Posted May 29th at 6:49 AM

  14. MG (Point Rock):

    0.77” here as of 7:30, still coming down pretty hard. At least it didn’t get down to 32 degrees.

    Posted May 29th at 7:59 AM

  15. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Finally got some decent rain overnight. .78” as of 8:15 AM.

    Posted May 29th at 8:24 AM

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    Posted October 13th at 9:01 PM

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