Finally, some real summer heat is expected this afternoon. Temperatures will push 90 in the lower elevations this afternoon. Dewpoints will be in the rise today as well. The combination of hot and humid weather, along with an advancing cold front could spell some trouble in spots later on today.
The cold front will drop in from the northwest and will cross officially later on tonight. Remember, when forecasting thunderstorms, it's not just the heat and humidity that create them. We need a trigger to get storms going. In today's scenario, the main trigger will be that cold front, but that won't happen until well into the night. Widespread thunderstorms are forecasted tonight, with heavy rain in spots.
Thunderstorms may develop sooner than late tonight for Central New York. Ahead of that cold front, thunderstorms may fire up along the shores of the Great Lakes (Michigan, Huron, Erie). In situations like this, thunderstorms can and do develop well ahead of the front. These storms are usually more dangerous, because many of them are created during the peak heating of the day. Also, individual thunderstorms develop, and can suck up all the energy around them, creating supercell storms. Single thunderstorms tend to be more powerful than lines of storms. This is because multiple thunderstorms have to compete for the same amount of energy in the atmosphere, whereas single storms can use all the energy they want. It is possible we could have one or two strong storms late today (after say 4PM) ahead of the front.
The most likely scenario that will happen today is that storms will fire up along the lakes out west, race eastward, and hit Central New York late in the evening. Additional rain showers and storms will be accompanied with the cold front itself, along with heavy rain. Rainfall in some storms may exceed 1" given the amount of moisture in play. SPC has upgraded Central New York into the 'slight risk' category, which increases that threat of severe weather. The one thing we don't have on our side is strong wind shear. Wind shear helps maintain strong storms. What that means is that if any storms do go severe later today, they may not last very long.
Enjoy the hot weather today by the way. The long term forecast is expected to revert back to where we were earlier in the month: cooler and wetter.
Comments
-
Sara:
Bill
Will tornados be a concern?Posted June 25th at 11:41 AM
-
Bill Kardas:
Thunderstorms are firing up along Lake Huron along the cold front. As this track to the west, most of this will miss us to the north. Lots of daytime heating to go though, and the storms that have developed already look impressive. Current temperature 77 with a dewpoint of 61.
Posted June 25th at 11:41 AM
-
Bill Kardas:
Sara,
Unlikely. The atmosphere won’t be condusive to tornadic activity without strong wind shear, which we won’t have today. Straight line winds will be a concern in some of these storms.
Posted June 25th at 11:51 AM
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Bill Kardas:
New developments with those storms now moving into Ontario…these storms are changing direction and now look like they are dropping southeastward. Given its current track, this may be the round of storms that will hit us later on today.
Posted June 25th at 12:11 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
There’s a nice super cell developing on the SW end of the lake. I had baseball hail for a few frames. Just hit 80 here. The dew is 60. Feels more humid than that.
Posted June 25th at 12:14 PM
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Bill Kardas:
SPC talking about issuing a severe thunderstorm watch. We may be on the edge of this watch box…we’ll see what NWS wants to do.
Posted June 25th at 12:34 PM
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Kenny (South utica):
SPC is indicating that a watch is likely, radar really seems to be exploding with that line as it approaches the lake….a interesting afternoon is surely developing.
Posted June 25th at 12:34 PM
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Kenny (South utica):
Bill, if you had to make that call…would you put us in the box….curious as to your thoughts on how the afternoon could unfold
Posted June 25th at 12:38 PM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):
And the watch boxes are now up.
Posted June 25th at 12:43 PM
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Bill Kardas:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ONEIDA AND MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
Posted June 25th at 1:00 PM
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Bill Kardas:
Kenny,
I really like how the box is drawn now…and the timing of this line will draw us in somewhere between 7-9PM this evening. I wouldn’t be surprised if this box was extended through the rest of Central & Eastern New York if this line holds together or strengthens.
Posted June 25th at 1:02 PM
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dave (hp):
Would convection be an important part of how severe these storms get just as much a s wind shear ? Just curious.
Posted June 25th at 1:15 PM
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Matt (Utica):
just looked at the radar on weather.gov… that is a nasty line of storms. Doesnt look like its going to hit anywhere around the Utica area tho. Just the direction its heading in looks like its going to go more towards Pennsylvania than anything. I could be wrong tho.
Posted June 25th at 1:38 PM
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Kenny (South utica):
Matt…it looks as though, as the line propagates eastword that it will move in a bit of a more eastward motion through nys….just based on my observation and the warning directionality
Posted June 25th at 1:42 PM
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Kenny (South utica):
starting to see some development in the finger lakes out ahead of the initial line….suprised it is so quiet in here
Posted June 25th at 3:03 PM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
Dewpoints are finally reaching the mid 60s, but still a little lower that what the models were projecting. It will be interesting to see how this line reacts with Lake Ontario along with the lake breeze. All in all, it is going to be an active late afternoon/evening
Posted June 25th at 3:15 PM
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Bill Kardas:
Dave,
Both instability and wind shear are necessary to produce strong thunderstorms. We certainly have instability, but in order to maintain strong storms, you need wind shear. Otherwise, you’ll get storms that develop but don’t hold together very well.
Posted June 25th at 3:16 PM
-
Working in Utica:
Wow…looks like that line is packing some moderate to heavy rain! Any flooding concerns as this line passes through? Thoughts on potential wind damage?
Posted June 25th at 3:41 PM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
Strong storm in central/northern herkimer county flagging .75” hail and heavy rain
Posted June 25th at 3:51 PM
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Kenny (South utica):
lots of pulse type storms popping up now as the line moves in and looks like based on radar lots of hail…..also it has gotten very breezy here in the last few minutes
Posted June 25th at 4:00 PM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 500 PM EDT
- AT 356 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.Posted June 25th at 4:01 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 545 PM EDT
- AT 446 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
Posted June 25th at 4:49 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 630 PM EDT
- AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!Posted June 25th at 5:26 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 630 PM EDT
- AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!Posted June 25th at 5:26 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
Otsego, Fulton and Montgomery Counties now under the watch until 11PM. Looks like Utica and points north are out of the way for severe weather this evening. Good news for Saranac Thursday
Posted June 25th at 5:35 PM
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Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):
Looks like the line is dropping south a bit out of the Utica area. Looks like areas along and south of route 20 are going to get hit hard. Maybe Utica Area later on? Storms in southeastern canada are producing hail with the front.
Posted June 25th at 5:36 PM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
Great Picture from WBNG out of Binghamton: http://bimedia.ftp.clickability.com/wbngwebftp/12-webcam-image.jpg
Posted June 25th at 5:54 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 700 PM EDT
- AT 552 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE WITHIN THIS WARNING AREA FROM OTEGO
TO HAMDEN MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE.Posted June 25th at 5:54 PM
-
Saranac Fan:
Awesome news, Jill!!! Hoping the severe stuff stays away for Saranac Thurs!
Posted June 25th at 5:57 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
Trees reported down in Richfield Springs
Posted June 25th at 7:06 PM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
Large trees down in Cazenovia as well. I had some thunder and a 29 mph wind gust here. Never rained though.
Posted June 25th at 7:10 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 745 PM EDT
- AT 709 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.Posted June 25th at 7:16 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
- AT 652 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES
- LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EAST
Posted June 25th at 7:16 PM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
Seems like the 12Z NAM was right on for today. Looks like this is about it. Maybe tomorrow we’ll get some storms for the thruway corridor.
Posted June 25th at 7:24 PM
-
cedarville:
what does the weekend weather look like?
Posted June 26th at 6:13 AM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
Looks like we’re staying in the slight risk area today with the new update. Definitely have better shear values than yesterday. Now we just got to get some sunshine after this batch of rain moves through.
Posted June 26th at 8:32 AM
-
Bill Kardas:
Rob,
So far nothing more than generic thunderstorms. The line is getting stronger though as it heads east, so I think Otsego and Herkimer County may see a few stronger storms. So far nothing severe.
Posted June 26th at 8:50 AM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
Yeah that cell just south of R. Springs looks pretty good. This front is sure taking it’s time coming through. It looks like it’s still just west of Lake Ontario.
Posted June 26th at 9:12 AM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
CAPES are pushing 2000 just ahead of the front in Ontario. Maybe something will fire up there and head this way later. Besides a few rumbles of thunder, I haven’t had a good t-storm since late April!
Posted June 26th at 9:27 AM
-
Mel (Westernville):
No rain here – everything stayed south of us.
Posted June 26th at 10:41 AM
-
Bill Kardas:
Three waves of storms have formed so far…the first came through early this morning, the second wave is moving through now over Otsego County, and another wave is forming out near Rochester. Nothing severe, but certainly interesting…
Posted June 26th at 11:48 AM
-
Working in Utica:
Yeah…looks like SPC is going to be setting up some watch boxes for just about all of Central NY. It’s in discussion as I type this. Potential for severe storms this afternoon.
Posted June 26th at 12:14 PM
-
Bill Kardas:
Very interesting situation developing here…that front is making very little progress…was supposed to move through last night but has stalled in Western New York. Once this line moves through we’ll break out into some sunshine, and that will significantly destablize the atmosphere. Dewpoints in the mid 60s…very humid outside thanks to the stalled progress of that front. Line of thunderstorms begining to strengthen out west. Will post more developments as we move along…
Posted June 26th at 12:23 PM
-
Bill Kardas:
Our computer models are useless with scenarios like this. All comes down to experience. Radar points to a ton of rotation with the cells in Western New York…wouldn’t be surprised to see an isolated tornado in that supercell in Monroe County with the information I’m looking at….
Posted June 26th at 12:30 PM
-
Working in Utica:
So what does your gut tell you for our area, Bill? When do you think we will see activity, especially sever, if any?
Posted June 26th at 12:39 PM
-
Bill Kardas:
Working,
Seeing how the situation has unfolded in Western New York this early in the day, I’d imagine those storms will at least maintain their severity as they head eastward. These single cells may try to combine into a line as the front advances eastward…assuming that front continues to advance eastward.
Posted June 26th at 12:48 PM
-
Bill Kardas:
Our studio is being dismantled right now by the way (and I happen to work in the studio)....check out the new studio look at 5PM. This is probably one of the craziest days I’ve worked here weather aside.
Posted June 26th at 12:50 PM
-
Bill Kardas:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH POSTED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL 7PM
Posted June 26th at 12:53 PM
-
Sara:
So the chances of a Tornado are very likely? That makes me nervous.
Posted June 26th at 12:53 PM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
NEXRAD showing tea cup size hail (3”) in Brockport just west of ROC.
Posted June 26th at 12:54 PM
-
Bill Kardas:
Three storms showing rotation out west now…
Posted June 26th at 12:54 PM
-
Bill Kardas:
Sara,
If tornados were likely today, you would see a tornado watch issued, not a severe thunderstorm watch. No tornado watches or warnings have been issued. We’re just concerned that these storms are rotating…which is often the first sign of trouble.
Posted June 26th at 12:57 PM
-
Bill Kardas:
Sara,
If tornados were likely today, you would see a tornado watch issued, not a severe thunderstorm watch. No tornado watches or warnings have been issued. We’re just concerned that these storms are rotating…which is often the first sign of trouble.
Posted June 26th at 12:57 PM
-
Bill Kardas:
Another strong rotating storm now in Chemung County.
Posted June 26th at 1:08 PM
-
Working in Utica:
Bill, where is the actual front located right now? Is it the line of storms approaching Syracust to Ithaca?
Posted June 26th at 1:22 PM
-
Sara:
When a storm is rotating doesn’t that mean a there is a tornado?
Posted June 26th at 1:24 PM
-
Working in Utica:
Sara….not necessarily. Bill can explain further, but doppler indicated rotation does not mean that there is a tornado on the ground.
Posted June 26th at 1:29 PM
-
Working in Utica:
Sara….not necessarily. Bill can explain further, but doppler indicated rotation does not ALWAYS mean that there is a tornado on the ground.
Posted June 26th at 1:29 PM
-
Working in Utica:
...and remember that these storms are out west right now. The WKTV crew are just keeping an eye on things right now. What they are seeing now out there does not always mean it will be what we see here, but they need to keep a watchful eye on things in case these line of storms hold up as the come our way. No need to get nervous. There are no tornado watches or warnings out at this time.
Posted June 26th at 1:35 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
Just got in and as Kardas said, major construction in the studio as severe weather gets closer, watching the storm in Onondaga County that is flagging some hail.
Posted June 26th at 1:58 PM
-
Bill Kardas:
Sara,
Rotating storms are supercell thunderstorms. These storms are capable of producing large hail, strong winds, and sometimes a tornado. Not all of them do, but when we see a supercell we get nervous. So far no tornadoes. That’s a good sign.
Posted June 26th at 2:00 PM
-
Yorkville:
Bill,
What time do you expect the storm to reach the Utica area?Posted June 26th at 2:02 PM
-
Bill Kardas:
Looks like the storms are going to roll in between 3-5PM. The first place to be affected looks to be NW Oneida county, assuming the storm passing north of Syracuse holds together. Good luck Jill!
Posted June 26th at 2:04 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
Yorkville, around an hour to an hour and half. Looks to be hitting Utica and northern suburbs.
Posted June 26th at 2:04 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
The cell now looks to be heading straight for Rome and is flagging 1” hail
Posted June 26th at 2:19 PM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
Looks like our shear values have weakened since this morning. Haven’t had any sunshine here either. Hope we can still get something.
Posted June 26th at 2:49 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
Nasty line moving over Lake Ontario, keeping a close eye on it as it edges closer.
Posted June 26th at 3:14 PM
-
Jill Reale (Utica):
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 500 PM EDT
- AT 402 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.Posted June 26th at 4:06 PM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
Huge storm just blew up north of Old Forge. It is severe.
Posted June 26th at 4:06 PM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
That is one heck of a storm up there. Radar is showing baseball hail. Looks like more are developing over by Redfield. The sun just came out here so hopefully we can get something going for us.
Posted June 26th at 4:17 PM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
I’m surprised there’s no Flood warning with that cell up north. It has produced about 4” of rain in less than an hour. It could be hail contaminated but that’s still very impressive.
Posted June 26th at 4:43 PM
-
Rob (Whitesboro):
Flash flood warning has been issued for Old Forge>
Posted June 26th at 4:53 PM
-
Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):
We miss out again here in CNY, well most of us any way. Looked liked things were good early then storms blew up and fell apart over us then blew up to our east. Maybe we will see something when actual front comes by. Like Rob said we haven’t had a good storm in months
Posted June 26th at 7:23 PM
-
Matt (Utica):
Wow… Ive been at work all day and i never got to see an image of that storm that hit Old Forge… anyone know how I can get like a 5 hour loop or something? Or even a pic of it. baseball sized hail… that HAD to look nasty on radar.
Posted June 26th at 7:28 PM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com:
Matt, you can go to Weatherunderground.com, click on our local radar and towards the bottom you can get an archived radar.
Posted June 27th at 7:25 AM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
Big graduation day and the forecast is shaping up to be ok, minus the clouds and fog this morning. Best chance for scattered showers this morning and afternoon will be across Herkimer and Otsego Counties. Western Oneida and Madison looks dry for most of the day.
Posted June 27th at 9:18 AM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com:
Keeping my fingers crossed. It’s my kids grad party. Looking ok to the west for now.
Posted June 27th at 12:33 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Your web cam isn’t looking good Tony. That’s a pretty dark cloud. Any thunder?
Posted June 27th at 4:04 PM
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Justin (Whitesboro):
a very big/dark cloud lurking in whitesboro/westmoreland area.looks very intimidating.
Posted June 27th at 4:26 PM
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Tina:
Getting rain by the bucket loads in Lairdsville.
Looks like more to come.Posted June 27th at 4:48 PM
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Jill Reale:
Severe weather in Buffalo, will be interesting to watch to see if it holds as it moves to the east
Posted June 28th at 9:27 PM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com:
I’ve added GR Level 3 radar to my site for everyones enjoyment. I did see some rotation out that way but no longer.
Posted June 28th at 11:01 PM
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Hogan scarpe:
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