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From my perspective, when I left on Friday, I was looking forward to this week because we had the rain situation Tuesday, maybe a little wet snow at the tail end and then quiet weather into the weekend. As is the case in CNY, it never goes exactly as you hope.

Freezing Drizzle

Light rain is showing up on radar now. I mentioned freezing drizzle a lot at 5, and during the last 3 hours, the NWS has issued advisories for it for the entire viewing area sans Lewis County. The good news? The roads were hard core treated on Friday, so there's a lot of salt residue already out there, so in the case of the main roads, you should be a-ok. Side roads are always a problem and will be so this evening. Use caution. Same goes for sidewalks and parking lots. As the night goes on, if anything, the rain will become a bit more widespread. If there's any good news in all this, it's that temperatures should slowly rise through the night. We're 35 right now in Rome, which is actually where I put us at 5 AM. So that either means we're not rising much at all, or we'll end up a touch milder than even I thought. Most locations should be right at or above the freezing mark by 5 AM. And as long as it keeps coming at a snail's pace, we should be ok. Use caution though overnight.

Thunder?

I saw a few things that caught my eye tonight and tomorrow morning. First, instability indices are up a bit higher than normal tonight and tomorrow morning, in a favorable spot for some isolated thunder. Second, there were some reports of lightning over Lake Michigan this afternoon. So that said, as the coverage and intensity of the showers picks up toward morning, I am including the chance of a rumble of thunder.

Rain

We will have two waves of rain. The first will be tomorrow. Rain will be heavy at times on Tuesday. We're expecting on average 0.75-1.50" or so of rainfall. Since the snow pack is puny and we've got relatively low water levels, we're not too concerned about flooding. NWS Binghamton will issue flood watches for the 2nd wave of rain though if it becomes apparent that this is going to nail us.

We'll see a break tomorrow night, with nothing more than showers. For any Super Tuesday voters, after about 4-5 PM, you'll be able to get out in drier weather.

Rain will redevelop on Wednesday. The question right now is...where does the frontal boundary drape itself. All the rain Tuesday is occurring ahead of a cold front that will try, but fail, to push through CNY. But that front is going to hang itself up near us on Wednesday. Another wave of low pressure will develop along the front. This will bring us a much more complex forecast for Wednesday.

The general consensus among us and the models is a slow northwest to southeast transition of rain to snow on Wednesday. But, the consensus may get muddy if a couple of things change. First, if the Arctic front is further south, we're looking at more snow than rain...and maybe 1-3" turns into 3-6". Second, if the Arctic front gets shoved much further north than we're expecting, we get a chance of thunderstorms and temperatures pushing records near 55 degrees. Lastly, if the front gets "stuck in the middle with you," then we could end up having to forecast that ugly wintry mix again. This is something that I do not under any circumstances want to have to deal with again. But, I'm going to lay it out there just in case. Right now, we think a slow passage to the south and east, leading to pre-dawn highs in the 40s, with slowly falling temps and a transition from rain to snow on Wednesday afternoon, with the best chance for accumulation north and west of Utica. This is not going to be a very well modelled scenario, because the differences will be very small, but have much bigger impacts, so we'll watch this closely and keep you posted.

Late Week Lull

Wednesday night could see some limited LES lingering into Thursday. Then on Friday a weak, mild clipper will bring a chance of wet flurries and no accumulation. All in all, I'll get my quiet wish.

Back to Winter

Saturday's forecast is extremely interesting and potentially volatile. An Arctic cold front is going to plow through CNY on Saturday late afternoon or at night. A gauge we use for forecasting thunderstorms is all over this feature (Total Totals up over 60!). We've seen two thundersnow scenarios this winter and this could be the third if the forecast holds. Additionally, as some of you pointed out, we do need to be on clipper alert for this situation, as a "glorified" clipper could develop and swing through delivering a widespread few inches before the LES machines rev up in high gear Saturday night and Sunday morning. The current setup looks like a really nice one for snow lovers in CNY. Providing it holds, we could see a solid 12-24 hour period of lake snow Saturday night through Sunday evening providing a significant accumulation. 850 mb temps absolutely plummet on Saturday night, currently forecasted between -25 and -28 C. This would really crank up the Lakes, so we'll have to watch this scenario closely.

But Will Winter Hold On?

I called for a February 10 cold shot awhile back (feels like it was over a week ago!). But I also said that the blocking setup was so brief, that we would just blow right through it and winter would not stay. And that is indeed what appears to be occurring. The AO flips to positive behind the cold blast...the NAO never goes negative so the cold shot is here for two days or so and then gone. And the PNA flips back to negative, so we won't be tapping any true Arctic air for awhile. So, no...winter will not be here for more than a couple days unfortunately, so hopefully we cash in.

That said, again, going back to the old La Nina trends...we knew January would be warm, February would be mostly warm, but that March reverses. So sometime between Feb 25 and March 5, I think we'll see some sort of return to winter. We will see.

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Comments

Alex (little falls):

So most of us will be getting 1 to 3 inches of snow

Posted February 4th at 8:34 PM
Matt Lanza:

Alex: Maybe. It's still two days away.

Posted February 4th at 8:37 PM
Mark williamson sodus area of wayne county:

Winter! Did you say winter???? please bring back winter!

Posted February 4th at 8:38 PM
Sarah:

Oh Yuck! I know many of you would like to see snow...that's fine. However, what caught me is the return to winter late Feb. early March...just when many of us are looking forward to spring! Gotta love it! I am not a huge snow lover but I can handle it. However, I will say, I would LOVE to see the sun! It would do wonders for those of us who feel a little "sun deprived!"

Posted February 4th at 8:42 PM
R. Kubecka Mohawk:

A return to winter!! I would like to see winter to begin haha!! I haven't ridden snowmobile in our area in a month! Very depressing.

Posted February 4th at 8:55 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

00z NAM is coming in freezing,lol jk but really there is deffinetly the potential for some decent snow wednesday afternoon through thurs morning. it is a rather complicated scenario with two waves of low pressure to deal with; one may pass across Cen PA giving areas from route 20 north a shot at accumulating snow weds afternoon, then another low may developed near the mason dixon line wed night giving areas south of route 20, near the NY/PA border a shot at accumulating snow. of course this is all speculation based on the 00z NAM; im not making any of this up, but who knows if it will really happen.

Posted February 4th at 9:28 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

ya know matt really is a smart meteorologist.....back on friday or saturday i remember somebody asked matt how he could be so sure that tuesdays storm was going to be all rain, and he gave a good explanation, but he threw in "lets wait until tuesday before we "celebrate" a forecast well done, well thats what makes him smart he knows that almost no matter what you forecast mother nature will always throw a wrench into your forecast, such as tonights frz rain potential and now, according to the 00z NAM, wed and wed nights snow potential lol srry i just think its funny how it always seems to work out that way!!!

Posted February 4th at 9:35 PM
Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

Seasonal total here now at an even 61 inches of accumulation.

Posted February 4th at 10:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

It is a very interesting situation for Wednesday now. I want to see the GFS before I bite, but we are looking at perhaps some more freezing rain and snow. Fortunately, precipitation amounts don't look ridiculous right now, so if it's snow...borderline temps would keep accumulations light and if it's freezing rain, we'd receive far less than we did on Friday. So we'll see how things look here over the next couple runs and observations.

Posted February 4th at 10:30 PM
mike m(binghamton):

you know me i always bite on snow lol but yea if the gfs comes in colder north of route 20 could be in for something....matt, what do you think about the potential for a rather strong area of low pressure to develop near DC and move toward NYC bringing hvy snow to cities such as scranton, BGM, Oneonta and Albany....is there even a small chance this could happen?

Posted February 4th at 10:35 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Doubtful at this point. This will start as rain, go over to a mix then to snow and by the time we get there, temps will be borderline, so ratios will be low...so a few inches of wet snow seems at best right now.

Posted February 4th at 10:42 PM
Matt Lanza:

I even just got a better look at the NAM data and it doesn't honestly look bad on Wednesday. It looks as though surface temps stay above freezing through the large majority of the day anyway, so whether it's snow or rain, problems appear to look minimal right now.

Posted February 4th at 10:52 PM
Matt Lanza:

Latest GFS coming in right on track with the earlier runs. Both the NAM and GFS are back along the NY/PA border with the track of the low, allowing for slightly less cold air than what we saw at 18Z, which was unnerving.

Posted February 4th at 11:11 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

idk yet i have a feeling the low may track further south...it is just a gut feeling, we shall see. also the 00z gfs continues to show a potent glorified clipper saturday, right now it would bring 1-3 inches of snow directly followed by a good NW to NNW flow for LES.

Posted February 4th at 11:37 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

31.6 degrees here with steady light to moderate rain. It does appear to be freezing a little bit on my driveway and sidewalk and also on the car, but main roads are fine. I imagine some of the back roads are iced up though. Anybody else see thoses intense returns on NWS radar over and near Lake Ontario heading ENE? That must either be thunderstorms or heavy sleet, but that precipitation blew up really quick!

Posted February 4th at 11:52 PM
Dan Seymore:

Thunder and lightning here at SUNY Oswego! :)

Posted February 4th at 11:55 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

michael, glad to see you are nearing freezing, hopefully no more icing problems in the eastern mohawk valley...well im off to bed.

Posted February 4th at 11:56 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

dan wow!! is it raining or sleeting ?

Posted February 5th at 12:16 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

MAN! This radar looks like something you would see in the summer. I am surprised no warnings have went up with these storms, they just look so intense. These radar returns look convective and I would bet that they are actually thunderstorms. Watch out Northern Oneida, Lewis, and Northern Herkimer counties.

Posted February 5th at 12:32 AM
Matt HP:

Thunder, Lighting, Sleet or Hail. Heavy at times. Winds seem calm though. Id be interested to see how bad it is in St Lawerence and Jefferson Counties

Posted February 5th at 12:57 AM
Matt Lanza:

Sleet and rain with thunder...glad I put it in the forecast! :)

Posted February 5th at 1:12 AM
Matt Lanza:

Looks to me like a borderline severe cell right now about to move from Onondaga into Madison County...possible medium sized hail with this.

Posted February 5th at 1:19 AM
Matt Lanza:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1257 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

NYZ018-036-037-050645-
MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA NY-
1257 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...
- AT 1256 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. THIS STORM
  WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF JORDAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.
- THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WARNERS AND IONIA AT 105 AM EST...
  WARNERS AND LAKELAND AT 110 AM EST...
  LYNCOURT AND MATTYDALE AT 115 AM EST...
  MINOA AND EAST SYRACUSE AT 120 AM EST...
  MINOA AND KIRKVILLE AT 125 AM EST...
  SULLIVAN AND CHITTENANGO AT 130 AM EST...
  CANASTOTA AND WAMPSVILLE AT 135 AM EST...
  ONEIDA CASTLE AND VERNON AT 140 AM EST...
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND HALF-INCH HAIL WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

Posted February 5th at 1:27 AM
Matt Lanza:

Heading to bed...that storm will be through Rome shortly, but has weakened considerably. Occasional showers and t'storms for the next few hours before a steady rain develops toward morning. Forecast going as scripted to a "T!" Love nights like this. Enjoy the "spring preview!"

Posted February 5th at 1:38 AM
Justin (Whitesboro):

Thunder/Lightning in Whitesboro @ 1:50am

Posted February 5th at 1:51 AM
Justin (Whitesboro):

moderate to heavy rain - still thundering/lightning

Posted February 5th at 2:01 AM
Matt ( CB ):

There were definately imoressive storms last night and heavy rain also.The strem in my back yard is way up and i can bet flood watches will be posted today.

Posted February 5th at 7:30 AM
Devin (waterville):

i worked 11pm- 7 am last night/ this morning. Around 2 am, At the old Oneida CO. Airport, there was a lot of lightning, thuder, and some pea sized hail. i have some pics ill put up, but they were taken on my cell phone so not great.

Posted February 5th at 7:42 AM
Andy Forestport:

Gotta love being woken up by thunder and lightning in the beginning of Feb...

Posted February 5th at 9:09 AM
Dave (near Clinton):

Intense lighting moved through around 4 AM.
Associated thunder was muted, not the crisp, rolling sound I associate with a summer TS. Is the relatively cool ambient air temp (relative to summer air temps) responsible for the very different sound character of the thunder?

Posted February 5th at 9:12 AM
MG (Point Rock):

Dave - I noticed that about the thunder, too. Summer thunderstorms result from convection (rising air) which begins near the ground on a hot day. Last night's storms, with sleet and near-freezing rain going on, resulted from what they call "elevated convection" the rising air was not based near the ground, but higher in the atmosphere. So, I'm guessing that there was no chance for cloud to ground strikes, and that all the lightning was in the clouds at higher levels. Maybe that caused the muted sound to the thunder? Anyone else have any ideas?
PS. snow total here is 107.5 inches, 13.5 on the ground. I notice that on the cocorahs web site, Lacona in Oswego Co. is up to 168.6.

Posted February 5th at 9:56 AM
Jeff:

Matt,
In your notes above, there may be a lake snow event this wknd. Will this be over the North Country or right here thru Utica? I know it's to early to call. Thunderstorms we had earlier during the nite dropped alot of rain streams running fast & carrying alot of ice in the currents

Posted February 5th at 10:00 AM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: Like you said, it's too early to gauge, but I would guess starting up north and dropping south right now. I think everyone will see at least something.

Dave: That could be caused by cooler, denser air or by MG's theory as well. Although, I believe a few cloud to ground strikes were registered.

As for flood watches, they likely won't be issued up our way (at least not in Oneida). The main flooding threat right now is along the Susqehanna or Chenango Rivers. That's why Otsego and Chenango are under them right now. Flooding down there is expected to be minor to moderate.

Posted February 5th at 10:13 AM
Tim:

Matt;Whats going on? I thought this was going to be an all Rain event? Here in Salisbury, Spruce Lake Area We been hovering near or below freezing icing on trees & roadways!

Posted February 5th at 10:20 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Hiya all!! as Matt said Flood watches down here. The funny thing is that Matt is so right about the forecast and how fickle it is going to be. We have Flood Watches here, but listening to the local radio stations and they are calling for Mix and Snow tom. Talk about confusing!! I will say one thing, my driveway is solid ice!!! and I need something to get rid of that!

Posted February 5th at 10:25 AM
Matt Lanza:

Tim: There's no real explanation as to why you'd still be below 32, except for the typical fickleness of the geography of CNY. 99% of the area is above 32 now (including all of the Adirondacks). I'm assuming that small area in and around Salisbury, Dolgeville, etc. is still around 32.4-33. You should get above freezing soon. It just never happens as quickly as we think...even when we forecast a purposely slower transition (like I did today). I had our official temp at 41 by 5 PM. When I first started, I would have had us at like 48 then...it's amazing what you learn about this area.

Jeff: Tomorrow is going to be a fickle day. The saving grace if it turns colder, is that the heavy rain will be shunted closer or below the NY/PA border. We'll see. I'll obviously jump in on that when I get in.

Posted February 5th at 10:40 AM
Matt Lanza:

I'm not sure exactly what the 12Z models are spitting out in terms of snow vs. rain vs. ice, but they look extremely active for the next 36-48 hours. More later.

Posted February 5th at 11:12 AM
Matt Lanza:

Looks like the potential for decent snow or ice in the Adirondacks now. Mohawk Valley looks like rain to sleet to snow. S Valleys looks like rain to sleet. More details later today.

Posted February 5th at 11:44 AM
Bill Kardas:

Hey gang. Just wanted to drop by and thank our skywatcher George for giving me some great ideas for our website. We're working on putting up a whole page of weather maps and information including our Microcast model. We'll let you know when it's ready.

Posted February 5th at 1:26 PM
Tim( Salisbury):

Thanks Matt. We are still only 35 degrees here in Salisbury.Light to moderate Rain Showers. Will we have ice again tonight or are temps staying above freezing?

Posted February 5th at 2:24 PM
Denese:

I just want to commend the meteorologists at Channel 2 on the GREAT job you are doing! It is quite obvious that Matt, Bill and Matt (I am sorry I have not had the opportunity to watch the new girl yet!) are devoted to their work and are bringing a passion to the forecast that is translated into accurate, interesting and thoughtful information. Your excitement during "interesting" weather events is contagious and fun to watch! The physical sciences are awesome, aren't they? It is a pleasure to watch you all and your blog is very informative. I am a Math/Physics person so I am partial to the tidbits of knowledge on your blogs! Keep up the fantastic work!

Posted February 5th at 2:42 PM
Denese:

I am sorry, it has been a long day already. I meant Matt, Bill and Adam! :))

Posted February 5th at 2:43 PM
MG (Point Rock):

Winter weather advisories up for Oneida, Madison, and Onondaga Counties; winter storm watches for the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley

Posted February 5th at 3:16 PM
Matt Lanza:

NWS Albany is very bullish on snow and ice prospects in the Adirondacks. Our in house model is bullish on snow for tomorrow and tomorrow night in northern Oneida, northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

Posted February 5th at 3:19 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

So in all aspects there is going to be a very fine line on the rain snow isnt there?? Is elevation going to have any effect?? And what is the worst case scenario we are looking at down here Matt.....Is there a chance that the rain changes and we get measureable snow here in the hills?

Posted February 5th at 3:29 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: Right now we're dealing with significant model discrepencies... the GFS showing a mostly innocent rain to snow event. But the NAM is hitting the southern valleys hard with ice and the Adirondacks hard with snow. Fine line isn't even the half of it.

Posted February 5th at 3:32 PM
Bill Kardas:

Folks,

You are definately going to want to check this out. Our new Microcast Page. This is a snapshot of our in house model taken at several points during the day and it goes out until tomorrow night. Enjoy!

Posted February 5th at 3:36 PM
Jeff:

Matt,
Looks like we have a big dome over us, with no precip.

Posted February 5th at 3:47 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Bill, can you add a "tonight" section?

Posted February 5th at 4:05 PM
Matt Lanza:

Snowfall forecast

Ice forecast

I will warn...high bust potential with this forecast. Explanations later.

Posted February 5th at 4:34 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

With this upcoming change in email servers, will we be changing blog servers to something that's integrable without frames, such as WordPress, seeming the rest of the site is PHP.

Posted February 5th at 4:41 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: The blog is staying "as is."

Posted February 5th at 4:49 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

I understand why. We've probably gotten over 2,000 comments. Imagine having to transfer all of them.

Posted February 5th at 4:53 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Man just got done doing a long search of the models and text forecasts. I feel so sorry for the poor WKTV crew the next two days. Multiple lows with temperature gradient so close. ITs gonna be a rough and tumble mid week that is for sure! I have the next 3 days off so I can give you updates as often as I can to let you guys know whats going on down here.

Posted February 5th at 5:35 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Very foggy up here on the hill. Cars on SR 12 with flashers on. Is this fog going to last? Was hoping to get down to vote.

Posted February 5th at 5:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

Fog will last I think through the evening... at least until temperatures cool a bit and winds shift into the north.

Posted February 5th at 5:53 PM
Matt Lanza:

As an aside, severe wx outbreak in the south right now...with a possible tornado heading right into metro Memphis, TN. Atmosphere is a powder keg down there.

Posted February 5th at 6:23 PM
Matt Lanza:

Live streaming coverage from Memphis which is getting a direct hit from a large tornado

Posted February 5th at 6:31 PM
Matt Lanza:

Tornado on camera just south of downtown Memphis

Posted February 5th at 6:41 PM
heather(german flatts):

temp @39 with fog dense. I am far from a snow lover but I would much rather see the snow then the ice.. Still praying for good weather the 13-14 for my daughter surgery I will be making 3-4 trips to cooperstown those days. Good news Matt please lol...

Posted February 5th at 6:43 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

After a high of 44 today at 3pm, we have now dropped to 35 degrees. I am not sure how the weather is outside right now since I am working, but my wife said she hit patches of fog on her way to Bridgewater. Hey Matt...Why the sharp temperature drop this evening?

Posted February 5th at 7:00 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

very dense low fog around here, very difficult to drive on the back roads. Jeff if you are already at 35, i hate to say it but expect some bad icing more than likely, changing to snow at some point in time.

Posted February 5th at 7:11 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

HMMMMMMM think either I am right on the front or something has gone haywire with my weather station. It is now showing 40 degrees......

Posted February 5th at 7:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

Is there still snow on the ground there Jeff?

Posted February 5th at 7:49 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

There was when I left the house at 2pm. But the weather station is 10 feet off the top of the shed approximately 20 feet off the ground. Could the fog be interfering???

Posted February 5th at 7:52 PM
Barbara (Laurens):

Hi Matt, Jeff - I just checked - we are at 43 here in Laurens. Please... no more ice!!:)

Posted February 5th at 8:02 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: I doubt it...temps are fickle in fog sometimes. Keep an eye on it.

New entry up!

Posted February 5th at 8:03 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

like that fickle word dont ya!!! :)

Posted February 5th at 8:23 PM
devin (waterville):

"So, I'm guessing that there was no chance for cloud to ground strikes, and that all the lightning was in the clouds at higher levels"- mg

there was definetly cloud to ground lightning, i saw a few strikes at the Oneida CO. airport. most was in the clouds but a few were actually hitting the ground

Posted February 6th at 4:50 AM
Liz (Remsen..):

So far so good up here in Remsen...I have seen NO snow or sleet nothing! Just a little breezy today. The snow is melting rapidly off my roof here on Bardwell Mills Rd.

Posted February 6th at 11:48 AM

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