Saturday Storms Possible

Posted July 22nd, 2010 by Adam Musyt. 56 comments

Our spell of fair weather with relatively less humidity has been short-lived.  This evening on the weather map, a warm front is situated along the southern borders of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan and is lifting northeastward.  North of this boundary, heavy rain has been falling with some Flash Flood Watches posted for the northern half of the state of Michigan.  Along and south of the front, the air mass is considerably more unstable and there have been severe thunderstorms and even some tornado warnings.

 

Here in CNY, we'll be on the northern, more stable side of this warm front through the first half of Friday.  This means that we'll likely see a good deal of cloud cover and some periods of rain.  Some of the rain may be briefly heavy.  Right now widespread flooding is not expected as we've had a rather dry July so far.  As the warm front lifts north of the area by late Friday, we'll notice an increase in the humidity.  By the end of the day CAPE values climb to ~ 1000 J/kg and Lifted Index reaches -2.  This suggests that here could be a thunderstorm or two by evening, but the intensity of the storms may be limited by extensive cloud cover.  If we see a little sunshine, a couple of severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

 

The warm front lifts to our north on Friday Night and we'll be back into a very warm and muggy air mass.  Temperatures will struggle to fall much below 70 through the night and there may be a few leftover showers or thunderstorms.

 

On Saturday, CNY will find itself in a very warm and muggy regime.  Some sunshine is likely, but this sunshine will be self-destructive in an unstable air mass.  A cold front will approach from the west during the day and serve as a trigger for thunderstorm development.  CAPE values will climb to 1500-2000 J/kg (sufficient for severe weather) and Lifted Index will be around -4.  On paper it looks like a better opportunity for scattered severe thunderstorms will be Saturday afternoon.  Check with us here on the blog and on NewsChannel 2.  We'll keep you up to speed as thunderstorms develop.

 

A break from the heat and humidity (and any thunderstorms) will arrive Sunday as another (and this time, longer lasting) dry air mass arrives from Canada.

Tags:

Add a Comment

Comments

  1. Becky (West Leyden):

    Has anyone check out what I believe are Altocumulus Clouds, I went outside and they were covering the moon…. very beautiful sight.

    Posted July 23rd at 12:03 AM

  2. Kenny:

    Becky I saw those around 11 or so tonight, had to be the most beautifull nighttime clouds i have ever seen!

    Posted July 23rd at 12:41 AM

  3. fairfield:

    raining here, nothing on radar

    Posted July 23rd at 7:52 AM

  4. fairfield:

    oops, radar wasnt updated, still raining

    Posted July 23rd at 9:18 AM

  5. randy Vitullo:

    The NAM and GFS are way behind on the timing of this precipitation. They show no rain here at all until mid afternoon today. The most current model shows the precip just creeping in here around noon. Does this mean that it may be over by noon or so today?

    Posted July 23rd at 9:33 AM

  6. Becky (West Leyden):

    I think the rain will stay with us at least into the early afternoon. The lack of sunshine has helped the destabilization dept. However, temps and dew points will rise in western NY this afternoon. CAPE and shear values are high enough that it could cause a line of showers and thunderstorms develop to our west that would move through the area. The risk of severe weather doesn’t looks nowhere near as likely as it did yesterday. However, there is an outside chance for a few strong storms to develop, particularly along any lake breeze boundaries from Lake Ontario, the flow is just enough that the possibility of strong winds can’t be ruled out if strong storms develop downwind of the lake .

    Posted July 23rd at 10:24 AM

  7. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Dews in WNY are getting into the mid 70’s. If they clear out there definitley could be some good storms. This is a nice rain…we need it.

    Posted July 23rd at 10:45 AM

  8. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The steadiest rain will pass through the area early this afternoon.

    Posted July 23rd at 11:13 AM

  9. jessie :

    well i am loving the rain i looked on radar and it does not seem to be stopping anytime soon i mean the whole radar is covered with rain but its all good we really needed the rain hopefully this will help us out 66/64 here right now

    Posted July 23rd at 11:23 AM

  10. MG(Point Rock):

    I’m not so sure we need the rain — I have 2.75” in the last week, and that doesn’t include anything that fell today.

    Posted July 23rd at 11:29 AM

  11. Becky (West Leyden):

    Lately, some of us on the blog have been using the term lake breeze boundary when we talk about the possibility of thunderstorm development. So I thought for those who don’t know what it is, I would make a small post about it. We all know how Lake Ontario affects our weather in the late Fall and Winter. Well the same process also affects our weather in the Summer. The lake doesn’t warm up as quickly as the surrounding land. Most of us know that cool air is more dense than warm air. Air cooled over the cold lake water is denser than that surrounding the lake and thus forms a cell of relatively high pressure over the lake. the air over the land is warmer therefore it becomes less dense. Because of this, a region of lower pressure forms over the land. The effect is the same as the high and low pressure systems were all familiar with, except it’s on a very small local scale. Now because wind is caused by air flowing from high pressure to low pressure, a breeze will come off the lake. We have all experienced cold fronts that sweep by with the passage of large-scale storm systems. The lake and land interaction forms something that is very similar. When the lake breeze forms and brings the colder lake air onto the land, the boundary zone between the two air masses is called the lake breeze boundary.

    Posted July 23rd at 11:43 AM

  12. MG(Point Rock):

    Thanks, Becky.
    Do you know how far from the lake that boundary can be found? Is it just a couple miles, or can it reach all the way over to this area?

    Posted July 23rd at 11:50 AM

  13. Kenny:

    SPC has a meso discussion up now, and talking about a possible watch being issued…..looks like we may be on the northern fringe of this.

    Posted July 23rd at 12:43 PM

  14. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    I’m not too concerned about severe weather here in CNY. That front hasn’t crossed the area yet, and the rain cooled atmosphere is pretty stable right now. Things will dry out, but sunshine will be limited. Some thunderstorms tonight are certainly in the cards, but without daytime heating most of these should stay below severe limits. We’ll keep an eye on things though…the high levels of humidity moving in tonight will add energy to the atmosphere.

    Posted July 23rd at 12:53 PM

  15. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    I see a Severe T’Storm Watch has been put up for Western NY to east of Syracuse. We have any chance getting into the action if we get some sun out later?

    Posted July 23rd at 12:57 PM

  16. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    I meant West of Syracuse. Sorry

    Posted July 23rd at 12:57 PM

  17. MG(Point Rock):

    Took advantage of a lull to check my rain gauge — 1.31” so far today

    Posted July 23rd at 1:03 PM

  18. fairfield:

    1.52” of rain so far today

    Posted July 23rd at 2:25 PM

  19. MG(Point Rock):

    At 2 PM Rochester’s dewpoint is 77?!! Yikes!

    Posted July 23rd at 2:46 PM

  20. Becky (West Leyden):

    Just got back from the fair, It was a little wet but fun. So far today I have one inch of rain.

    Now we wait to see if anything develops.

    MG, The lake breeze frontal zone is very narrow, about one half to one mile wide. How far it come inland depends on the difference between the temperature of air over the lake and that over land. normally the distance is 5-10 miles. However, on rare occasions it can penetrate as far as 25-30 miles.

    Posted July 23rd at 3:03 PM

  21. Becky (West Leyden):

    Looks like the thunderstorms wiil stay south of the Mohawk Valley. However, I guess a stray storm could surprise someone. As for severe weather, SW NY and NW and Central PA having the best shot of seeing it. extreme southern NY and PA have a shot at even seeing some tornadoes. The sounding wind profiles show shear is 80 to 90 degrees down there.

    Bonnie looks on track to keep her appointment with the oil spill. I feel sorry for the people in Louisiana and Mississippi.

    Posted July 23rd at 4:26 PM

  22. fairfield:

    Becky, is it normal to see so many tornadoes senerios popping up in the north east or am i just being more observant?

    Posted July 23rd at 4:35 PM

  23. jessie:

    i was thinking the same thing as 22 i dont remember hearing tornadoes being brought up this much before

    Posted July 23rd at 4:41 PM

  24. Becky (West Leyden):

    fairfield, I think the Northeast has seen an uptick in the number of tornadoes this year. One reason is the conditions this year have been more supportive of tornado development . However, I think a bigger reason is like you say. More people are watching, therefore more tornado reports. It’s like the allegory of “if a tree falls in the woods and no one sees it does it make a sound” A tornado is only reported if it makes damage or someone see it. Years ago, if a tornado came down in a deserted field or forest …there was no tornado. However with the communication available today it makes it very easy to report severe weather events like tornadoes.

    Posted July 23rd at 4:55 PM

  25. fairfield:

    I have to admit I’ve been a weather observer just about all my life but before computers i had to rely on the news and national weather service and i tell my daughter that i still remember the only time i was told to watch out for a funnel cloud i was on my way home with my mom i was about 15 to 17 yrs of age and she terrified me by asking me that and that was the first time i remember a chance of one being in our area ( over 20 yrs ago)......the other day also freaked me out a little

    Posted July 23rd at 5:04 PM

  26. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Picked up 1.42” here so far.

    Posted July 23rd at 5:08 PM

  27. Becky (West Leyden):

    fairfield, I hear you, I was a little younger than that when my life and the Boonville tornado intersected. I still remember everything about it with perfect clarity. like you, the storm terrified me, I still have dreams about it every once in a while. However, it was that storm that got me interested in tornadoes. So I’ve spent years learning everything I could about them, somewhere along the process, I developed a fondness for severe weather. It’s not that I worship severe weather; however if it’s around I find it irresistible. Yeah, I know, I’m a little crazy : )

    Posted July 23rd at 5:27 PM

  28. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    1.82” here for the day.

    Posted July 23rd at 5:55 PM

  29. Adam Musyt:

    Tornado warnings in Northeast PA. We really lucked out with the cloudcover staying around today. That kept our atmosphere stable.

    Warm front is now through Syracuse. They are up to 81 degrees with a dew point of 75 while RME remains at 68 over 66.

    Becky,

    Those were altocumulus clouds last night. I noticed them when I got into the parking lot after the 11:00 news last night. You’re right. They looked fantastic against the moonlight!

    Posted July 23rd at 6:00 PM

  30. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Nothing wants to fire along the warm front today. Good setup for severe weather…especially south of the valley.

    Posted July 23rd at 6:02 PM

  31. Adam Musyt:

    Dew points all across Western New York are digustingly high. In fact, they are about as high as they ever get in this part of the country. The dew point is 79 degrees now in Binghamton and 76 at Niagara Falls, Ithaca and Dunkirk.

    Tomorrow is going to be an uncomfortable day here in CNY.

    Posted July 23rd at 6:03 PM

  32. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Wow…we migh as well live on the equator. The highest I’ve ever recorded was 75…usually once a year. I hit 75 for a dew 3 times this year already.

    Posted July 23rd at 6:11 PM

  33. Becky (West Leyden):

    Conditions are the same up here 68/67

    Posted July 23rd at 6:12 PM

  34. MG(Point Rock):

    My total preip was 1.77” — almost exactly the same as I had a week ago today.
    I wonder if the doppler radar is resulting in more tornado warnings — but not necessarily more tornadoes

    Posted July 23rd at 6:27 PM

  35. Adam Musyt:

    34,

    MG,

    Absolutely Doppler radar results in more tornado warnings. When I took my course in Mesoscale Meteorology at Penn State, my professor estimated that fewer than a quarter of NWS tornado warnings actually verified. The idea is to increase lead time – and that it’s better to warn for a tornado and have just a gusty thunderstorm than to miss a tornado and leave the public unaware.

    Posted July 23rd at 6:34 PM

  36. Ted:

    1.46” so far today

    Posted July 23rd at 6:54 PM

  37. Ted:

    That should have read 1.46” so far today here in Ilion

    Posted July 23rd at 6:55 PM

  38. kassi:

    how bad will the storms be tomorrow?

    Posted July 23rd at 6:56 PM

  39. fairfield:

    ended up with 1.63” today

    Posted July 23rd at 7:03 PM

  40. Cold Brook:

    1.64 of slow needed rain today.Humidity is getting bad.Hopefully we don’t get too hot tomorrow.Planning on Mnt Biking with the kids.64 was our high for the day.

    Posted July 23rd at 7:31 PM

  41. Becky (West Leyden):

    Very thick fog up here. The temp is 68 and the DP is 68. picked up 1.06 inches of rain today.

    Posted July 23rd at 8:44 PM

  42. fairfield:

    65/63 here, as well as foggy

    Posted July 23rd at 9:15 PM

  43. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    1.68” inches of rain for the day here.

    Posted July 23rd at 11:34 PM

  44. Matt:

    Are these storms firing up over us being influenced by the lake?

    Posted July 24th at 12:49 AM

  45. jessie :

    in ilion it is down pouring and a small thunderstorm as i type this it looks to be almost over by the radar i went out for a smoke and wow its gotten sticky out but one day is all we have to deal with this for i hope goodnight all be back on tomorrow to keep an eye on the storms for the day

    Posted July 24th at 12:54 AM

  46. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Street flooding ongoing right now in the village. Streets are completely covered in 1-2” inches of flowing water. Just heard on the scanner Middleville is experiencing severe flooding and road closures are occuring.

    Posted July 24th at 1:29 AM

  47. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Picked up 2.06” inches of rain in just the past three hours here!!!!

    Posted July 24th at 3:13 AM

  48. Rob (Whitesboro):

    BGM is preparing for a significant severe weather outbreak this afternoon. Sounds like a pretty good setup….we shall see.

    Posted July 24th at 4:15 AM

  49. Rob (Whitesboro):

    SPS just issued for the severe potential late today. Something is going on with all this enhanced wording. Sounds like we could be talking about a derecho.

    Posted July 24th at 4:56 AM

  50. Tom ( Richfield Springs):

    1.8” rain here in Richfield, the most we have received from any of the last few storms. Already hot and humid, not looking forward to the rest of the day.

    Posted July 24th at 5:34 AM

  51. matt (cold brook):

    Just stepped outside to read rain guage,recieved a half inch more since 9pm last night.
    I would love to see the radar for the flooding event in Middleville.Hard to beleive they got so much and we so little.Can someone please post that web page for that radar loop?

    Posted July 24th at 6:14 AM

  52. gail:

    what is derecho

    Posted July 24th at 6:33 AM

  53. Debbie:

    Is today going to b another rainy day or we will see any sun at all. Guess we picked a bad weekend to have a garage sale. Thanks for any weather info.

    Posted July 24th at 6:52 AM

  54. fairfield:

    heard the rain come while we were in bed, sounded pretty hard. ended up with 1.44”

    Posted July 24th at 8:32 AM

  55. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    Looks like a wild day here later this afternoon.. SPC put out a special weather statement already highlighting potential severe weather event.. Getting a heavy shower here now in HP no thunder and very little wind. Gail a derecho is a huge complex of thunderstorms usually severe in nature with strong damaging winds. This kind of a system is what came through here on early labor day morning back in 1998 that caused widespread damage through out CNY. NWS maybe hinting that a derecho is possible but not certain for today.. We will have to just wait and see. Strong storms firing in Indiana and southern Wisconsin this am

    Posted July 24th at 8:54 AM

  56. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    I wouldn’t go out on that kind of a limb just yet. It is quite humid, but to generate a storm like that we usually look for dews in the mid to upper 70s. With a hint of subsidence in the air from the storms out west, our dews may not quite reach the threshold to produce that kind of storm.

    Posted July 24th at 9:08 AM

Add a Comment

Only registered accounts may post comments to the blog. To register a new account or login, select the appropriate link in the header and follow the instructions. (note: all accounts are subject to approval by WKTV.)

↑ Back to Top

Recent Comments on this Entry

Recent Entries

Top 5 Tags