Saturday Snap Crackle Pop?

Posted May 15th, 2009 by Adam Musyt. 61 comments

A strong cold front currently crossing the Great Plains and moving into the Ohio Valley is producing severe thunderstorms. this evening in Illinois and Indiana.  As this weather system moves to the east, an active day is in the forecast for Central New York for Saturday.  The cold front will approach the area during the day.  At the same time, warm and slightly humid (at least for this time of year) air will move into the local area on southwesterly winds. 

Saturday will start with at least a few peeks of sunshine.  But any sunshine will help to fuel and destabilize the atmosphere.  The cold front, with widespread showers and thunderstorms, will cross the area late in the day and into the early portion of Saturday Night - but any thunderstorms that pop up in the relatively unstable air mass preceding this front have the potential to become severe with wind gusts over 60 mph, heavy rainfall, hail and frequent lightning.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Central New York in a "slight risk" for severe weather.  The SPC is generally conservative with their severe weather forecasts.  One thing that makes this potential event possibly noteworthy is that a strong upper level jet streak, pictured in dark blue (see link below in comment 1) is being depicted by the computer models.  A *Jet streak* is a localized region of very fast winds embedded within the jet stream, at an altitude of about 9-10 km above ground level. The picture shows upper level winds moving quickly from southwest to northeast on the 12z run of the GFS model forecast at the 300 mb pressure level by 8 PM Saturday evening.  As this locally enhanced area of upper level winds moves from Michigan into Ontario, areas to the right of the flow will be in a prime location for enhanced upward motion or lift.  This has the potential to give thunderstorms a bit of extra 'oomph' as they push eastward from the lower Great Lakes tomorrow afternoon and evening.

A mitigating factor for widesread severe weather tomorrow is that the air mass will only become relatively unstable.  Still, we do expect some thunderstorms to develop and some of them could reach strong to severe limits.  We'll keep a close eye on this all throughout Saturday.

The cold front will cross the area and much cooler temperatures will temporarily arrive for Sunday.

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  1. Adam Musyt:

    GFS model jet streak forecast for Saturday evening

    Posted May 15th at 9:27 PM

  2. Adam Musyt:

    Everything you always wanted to know (and more) about jet streaks

    Posted May 15th at 9:31 PM

  3. teri deerfield:

    is this shower adn cloudiness going to ruin chances of thunderstorms later?

    Posted May 16th at 8:44 AM

  4. randy Vitullo :

    Any signs of a long term dry spell with warmer temperatures; say 70 or above?

    Posted May 16th at 8:55 AM

  5. Adam Musyt:

    Teri,

    It doesn’t look that way. This little batch of showers looks to lift to the northeast and we should see another round of peek-a-boo sunshine.

    Randy,

    Later this week there have been signs of a warmup. The computer models were gung ho about it on Thursday, backed off on that idea big time yesterday, and now reverted to a less pronounced warmup on this morning’s 12z run. An Atlantic ridge is trying to establish itself on the computer runs. It is just a matter of time until it gets it’s act together. Either late this week or sometime next week we ought to have at least a few dry days in a row with 70+.

    Posted May 16th at 9:16 AM

  6. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Still stuck at 60 degrees here. The warm front seems to be moving a bit slow. CAPE values are going over 1000 in WNY. I guess that’s a good sign.

    Posted May 16th at 11:08 AM

  7. Adam Musyt:

    It’s all going to depend on the sunshine. Dews are above 60 to the west of I-81 and there are some breaks of sun over West-Central NY.  Watertown is up to 68 degrees already too.

    Posted May 16th at 11:39 AM

  8. Adam Musyt:

    Healthy looking storm has fired in the more unstable air over Wayne County (where there was some extra sun this morning). Our StormTracker 2 Doppler Radar is showing the potential of 1” hail with this thunderstorm.

    Posted May 16th at 12:06 PM

  9. Adam Musyt:

    Visible satellte imagery shows some breakup of the overcast now over Onondaga County – and I still expect some peeks of sun here over the next hour or two.

    Posted May 16th at 12:08 PM

  10. Adam Musyt:

    75 degrees at noon in Syracuse.

    Posted May 16th at 12:18 PM

  11. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I just shot up 10 degrees to 70 here in just over an hour. It’s 74 in Westmo already.

    Posted May 16th at 12:25 PM

  12. Rob (Whitesboro):

    SPS just issued for the increasing severe threat. SPC is monitoring for a possible Watch Box.

    Posted May 16th at 12:31 PM

  13. Kenny (South utica):

    Looks like a nice line already forming in the western finger lakes…and it has definately warmed up out, windy as well, and humid too.

    Posted May 16th at 12:36 PM

  14. Adam Musyt:

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
    1238 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    NORTHWESTERN CAYUGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK OSWEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK

    • UNTIL 145 PM EDT

    • AT 1237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF FULTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

    • THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
    FULTON BY 1255 PM EDT...

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
    GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
    IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
    REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
    STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

    Posted May 16th at 12:43 PM

  15. Kenny (South utica):

    Looks like a watch is now up until 8pm…the action commence.

    Posted May 16th at 1:00 PM

  16. Adam Musyt:

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    109 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

    NYC007-015-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-097-099-101-107-109-123-
    PAC015-069-079-115-127-131-170000-
    /O.NEW.KBGM.SV.A.0311.090516T1709Z-090517T0000Z/

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
    311 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

    IN NEW YORK THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES

    IN CENTRAL NEW YORK

    BROOME CHEMUNG CHENANGO
    CORTLAND DELAWARE MADISON
    ONEIDA ONONDAGA OTSEGO
    SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
    TIOGA TOMPKINS YATES

    IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

    IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

    BRADFORD LACKAWANNA LUZERNE
    SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING

    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…BINGHAMTON...COOPERSTOWN...
    CORNING...CORTLAND...DELHI...ELMIRA...HAZLETON...HONESDALE...
    HORNELL...ITHACA...MONTROSE...NORWICH...ONEIDA...ONEONTA...
    OWEGO...PENN YAN...ROME...SAYRE...SCRANTON...SENECA FALLS...
    SYRACUSE...TOWANDA...TUNKHANNOCK...UTICA...WALTON...
    WATKINS GLEN AND WILKES-BARRE.

    Posted May 16th at 1:13 PM

  17. Matt S. (Deerfield):

    Bring on the storms!

    Posted May 16th at 1:14 PM

  18. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    humid and warm out right now. Sun has been out most the day. Looks like the action is definately starting up out west, lets get some good ones today!

    Posted May 16th at 1:20 PM

  19. Adam Musyt:

    In-house Doppler is showing weak rotation with the thunderstorm in Central Oswego County.

    Sun is popping out here at the tv studio.

    Posted May 16th at 1:22 PM

  20. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah I noticed that too on Nexrad. EHI levels are around 4 in the Finfer Lakes. That’s pretty decent for this area.

    Posted May 16th at 1:26 PM

  21. Adam Musyt:

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
    145 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK LEWIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EASTERN OSWEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK

    • UNTIL 245 PM EDT

    • AT 144 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10
    MILES SOUTHWEST OF REDFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

    • THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
    REDFIELD BY 200 PM EDT... HIGHMARKET BY 230 PM EDT...

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH...PREPARE
    IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND FREQUENT
    CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A
    SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

    A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
    SATURDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.

    Posted May 16th at 1:49 PM

  22. Adam Musyt:

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    155 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

    • UNTIL 245 PM EDT

    • AT 153 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 24 MILES WEST OF BOONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

    • THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
    BOONVILLE BY 225 PM EDT... 8 MILES NORTH OF FORESTPORT BY 235 PM EDT...

    PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT
    BGM.STORMREPORTNOAA.GOV.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
    IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
    TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
    PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

    Posted May 16th at 2:01 PM

  23. Adam Musyt:

    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    208 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

    NYC065-161845-
    /O.CON.KBGM.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-090516T1845Z/
    ONEIDA NY-
    208 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

    ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
    FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...

    AT 206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
    FLORENCE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... AVA BY 215 PM EDT... BOONVILLE BY 225 PM EDT... HAWKINSVILLE BY 230 PM EDT... FORESTPORT BY 235 PM EDT... WOODGATE BY 240 PM EDT...

    A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS FOLLOWING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. THIS
    STORM WILL BE NEAR... WESTDALE AT 211 PM EDT... POINT ROCK AT 221 PM EDT...

    PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT
    BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

    Posted May 16th at 2:11 PM

  24. Adam Musyt:

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    225 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

    • UNTIL 300 PM EDT

    • AT 223 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMILLUS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

    • THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
    FAIRMOUNT...WESTVALE AND ONONDAGA BY 230 PM EDT... LIVERPOOL AND SYRACUSE BY 235 PM EDT... NORTH SYRACUSE...EAST SYRACUSE...DE WITT AND CICERO BY 240 PM EDT... BRIDGEPORT BY 250 PM EDT...

    PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT
    BGM.STORMREPORTNOAA.GOV.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
    AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

    Posted May 16th at 2:29 PM

  25. Adam Musyt:

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    241 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

    • UNTIL 300 PM EDT

    • AT 240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

    • THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
    WOODGATE BY 250 PM EDT...

    PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT
    BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
    AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

    Posted May 16th at 2:45 PM

  26. Adam Musyt:

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
    251 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK... NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...

    • UNTIL 345 PM EDT

    • AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCKEEVER TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCKEEVER TO 10 MILES WEST OF NORTHWOOD TO 23 MILES WEST OF NORTHWOOD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES WEST OF OLD FORGE TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OLD FORGE TO 8 MILES WEST OF HINCKLEY TO 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF UTICA...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
    NICKS LAKE CAMPGROUND AND OLD FORGE BY 305 PM… ALGER ISLAND PUBLIC CAMPGROUND AND BIG MOOSE BY 315 PM… POLAND...COLD BROOK...LIMEKILN LAKE CAMPGROUND AND INLET BY 320 PM.. EIGHTH LAKE CAMPGROUND AND BROWN TRACT POND CAMPGROUND BY 325 PM…

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
    GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
    IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
    REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
    STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

    PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

    Posted May 16th at 2:58 PM

  27. Adam :

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    253 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

    • UNTIL 400 PM EDT

    • AT 253 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRIDGEPORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

    • THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
    VERONA BEACH BY 305 PM EDT... SYLVAN BEACH AND VIENNA BY 310 PM EDT... BLOSSVALE AND NEW LONDON BY 315 PM EDT... LEE AND TABERG BY 320 PM EDT... ROME BY 325 PM EDT... DELTA LAKE BY 330 PM EDT...

    PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT
    BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
    AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

    Posted May 16th at 3:00 PM

  28. Kenny (South utica):

    Best storm on radar looks to be on a b-line for the uitca area….almost looks like a loner storm or supercell….and is showing 3/4 inch hail.

    Posted May 16th at 3:22 PM

  29. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I’m surprised that storm is holding its own with all that rain cooled air out ahead of it. Had a brief shower here. Haven’t heard any thunder.

    Posted May 16th at 3:39 PM

  30. Eddie the Eagle:

    What storm?

    Posted May 16th at 4:04 PM

  31. Matt S. (Deerfield):

    WOW, Tornado Warning down in Madison County!

    Posted May 16th at 4:27 PM

  32. WINTER (Forestport):

    Tornado Warning for Oneida County, NY
    until 4:45 pm EDT, Sat., May. 16, 2009

    Issued by The National Weather Service
    Binghamton, NY
    4:20 pm EDT, Sat., May. 16, 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

    • TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CHENANGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN CORTLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... SOUTH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
    • UNTIL 445 PM EDT
    • AT 419 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CUYLER... MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
    • THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... GEORGETOWN AND OTSELIC BY 435 PM EDT... SOUTH LEBANON AND ERIEVILLE BY 440 PM EDT... LEBANON... PIERCEVILLE AND HAMILTON BY 445 PM EDT...

    PLEASE REPORT HAIL... OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772… OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR... IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND... OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM... MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING... DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

    Posted May 16th at 4:40 PM

  33. Rob (Whitesboro):

    There does appear to be some weak rotation with that storm. The circulation is just south of Hamilton in Madison county.

    Posted May 16th at 4:45 PM

  34. Matt S. (Deerfield):

    Another Tornado Warning just issued near Binghamton.

    Posted May 16th at 4:55 PM

  35. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Possible Tornado just hit Georgetown in Madison County. There is quite a bit of structural damage being reported.

    Posted May 16th at 5:02 PM

  36. Bill Kardas:

    Damage and a potential tornado spotted in Lebanon shortly after 4:30PM this afternoon. We’re sending a crew down there now.

    Posted May 16th at 5:03 PM

  37. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Sounds pretty bad. The report I saw said there were structures totaly collapsed with injuries.

    Posted May 16th at 5:05 PM

  38. Matt S. (Deerfield):

    Dang, Thats crazy!

    Posted May 16th at 5:08 PM

  39. Bill Kardas:

    Nasty cell moving through Central Chenango County. This one is another rotater. Could provoke another tornado warning? We’ll watch closely.

    Posted May 16th at 5:35 PM

  40. Chris ( HP ):

    Had a gully washer up here around 3:30 or so.. Over 1 inch of rain in a short time.. Watching storms approach the area closely

    Posted May 16th at 5:43 PM

  41. jessie:

    i think your guys radar is not working right

    Posted May 16th at 5:47 PM

  42. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    The damage from the Tioga County storm has been confirmed to be from a Tornado by a NWS employee. NWS BGM will probably send a team up to Georgetown in Madison County tomorrow to determine whether or not a Tornado touched down.

    Posted May 16th at 7:37 PM

  43. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It also appears they’ll have to ivestigate damage in Chemung and Cortland counties for possible tornado damage. Witnesses reporting funnel clouds there as well. If we had full sunshine this morning this would of been a disaster of a day.

    Posted May 16th at 9:29 PM

  44. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    It is going to be interesting to see what the NWS says tomorrow. From watching the video posted on WKTV’s main page it looks like damage from straight line winds. At 1:07 in the video, look at the angle and direction the metal roofing was torn off. It is peeled off the roof in the same direction the spruce tree is pointing indicating the wind was moving in a straight line at the time. Also check out the trees at 0.34 in the video. Both are lying in the same direction again. In a Tornado usually everything is twisted and trees are lying in all different directions. BGM did issue a Tornado Warning and radar did indicate rotation so it is entirely possible there was a touchdown.

    Posted May 16th at 10:37 PM

  45. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Now on the Chemung/Tioga county Tornado, there is no doubt in my mind that a Tornado touched down just from looking at radar. There was a red/green couplet along with at one point a 65dbz return on radar. A NWS employee confirmed this was definitely a Tornado.

    Posted May 16th at 10:46 PM

  46. Rob (Whitesboro):

    From the way the intial report sounded, I thought it was in a more populated area. The roof was partially still there. In my mind I had other ideas. Even if it wasn’t a tornado, the winds were definitely in excess of 70mph.

    Posted May 16th at 10:53 PM

  47. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Rob, there is a comment on WSYR from someone who claims they actually saw the Tornado pass right in front of them. I wish there was an actual ground report from a skywarn spotter at the time though. Yeah, those winds were definitely over 70mph and probably will be estimated by the NWS to be between 85-100mph. Look at the distance some of those cinder blocks were blown!

    Posted May 16th at 11:36 PM

  48. Matt (Utica):

    Crazy weather today… tornadoes in May? For NY… thats odd. Especially considering the injuries and damage. I got the txt at work (from the weather channel) and it said Tornado Warning… and i had to check it twice. I definitely want to know what happened and how many there were, what strength, etc.

    Posted May 17th at 12:09 AM

  49. Bill Kardas:

    The jury is still out on this one. From what I gathered from our photographer that was down there, he didn’t see the classic tornado damage path, with circulating wind destruction. However, we’ll leave it to the experts at the National Weather Service to determine whether or not a tornado did indeed touchdown. Either way, there was considerable damage and it certainly warranted the alarm.

    Posted May 17th at 11:37 AM

  50. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like we’re in for a killer frost tonight. Even in the valley. Sounds like we’re going to dip into the 20’s by tomorrow morning!

    Posted May 17th at 12:07 PM

  51. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Boy did I pick the wrong day to take a day off! I am back in town and was looking at last May and ironically, May 17th last year we had an F0 tornado in Camden.

    Posted May 17th at 4:29 PM

  52. Jill Reale (Utica):

    NWS has confirmed that there was a tornado in Georgetown, Madison County

    Posted May 17th at 5:58 PM

  53. Jill Reale (Utica):

    EF 2 has been confirmed

    Posted May 17th at 6:37 PM

  54. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Wow…That’s very impressive. I was thinking it would of been an EF 0 if it was even delcared a tornado. That means wind speeds were 111-135mph!

    Posted May 17th at 6:45 PM

  55. Rob (Whitesboro):

    That’s weird they even called the Tioga county storm a tornado. They said winds were around 60mph. The EF scale doesn’t even start that low!

    Posted May 17th at 6:59 PM

  56. Jill Reale:

    NOUS41 KBGM 172322
    PNSBGM
    NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
    044-047-048-072-180900-

    PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    720 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

    ...TORNADOES CONFIRMED IN CORTLAND AND MADISON COUNTIES...

    LOCATION...GEORGETOWN...MADISON COUNTY NY
    DATE...MAY 16TH 2009
    ESTIMATED TIME...434 TO 447 PM
    MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF2
    ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...100 TO 120 MPH
    MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARDS
    PATH LENGTH...6.5 MILES
    BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.75N / 75.77W
    ENDING LAT/LON...42.77N / 75.67W *INJURIES...1

    *NOTE THESE NUMBERS COULD CHANGE AFTER ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT.

    ...SUMMARY...
    MOST OF THE DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH WAS TO TREES. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
    OCCURRED APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE SOUTH OF THE VILLAGE OF GEORGETOWN. A
    LARGE BARN WAS DESTROYED...A ROOF WAS TORN OFF A HOUSE AND SEVERAL
    OUTBUILDINGS AND SHEDS WERE DESTROYED. ELECTRICAL POLES WERE
    SNAPPED. THIS LOCATION IS WHERE THE INJURY OCCURRED. A SECOND FARM
    ON UPHAM ROAD WAS HIT...DESTROYING A LARGE BARN...SILO AND A COUPLE
    SHEDS. SOME LIVESTOCK WAS LOST AT THIS LOCATION. A FARMSTEAD NEAR
    NILES ROAD ALSO RECEIVED DAMAGE TO A SILO...AND DAMAGE TO THE HOME
    ROOF AND SIDING.

    Posted May 17th at 7:41 PM

  57. randy Vitullo :

    The flooding on our property resembled the June 06 flood. During the 06 flood, we had two bridges moved by the torrent. Our garden was under a rushing torrent. Yesterday resulted in a similar fate. Two bridges lifted from their moorings and washed 100 yards downstream. The garden was under water, almost as much as it was with the June 06 flood. I suspect we received 3 or 4 inches of rain in a three hour period on Saturday. Locations to our north and east must have been clobbered. The stream rose three feet in 45 minutes. All ten bridges were invisible as water poured over them. Two succumbed; eight survived. Trail work begins again.

    Posted May 17th at 7:57 PM

  58. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Another interesting note is that the Madison tornado was on the ground for 13 minutes with a 6.5 mile track! You don’t see that too often around here.

    Posted May 17th at 8:15 PM

  59. Jill Reale:

    I am working on a new blog entry about May Tornadoes in NY. It will either be posted tonight or tomorrow

    Posted May 17th at 9:10 PM

  60. Brick Tamland:

    Rob, I was on Rt49 picking up up my boat today and I couldn’t believe the amount of water in Fish Creek. Earlier in the day I was looking at the Sauquoit Creek and it seemed very low for this time of year. Quite a difference in 25 miles.

    Posted May 17th at 9:37 PM

  61. Jill Reale (Utica):

    New entry is up

    Posted May 17th at 9:55 PM

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