Weather Blog | Round #3

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Please go on and post snow totals from Friday's event in the comments section.

8.5" in Utica...record for December 19th.
24.2" for the month, which is 2" above normal for the entire month as a whole. Anything from here on in is surplus.
30.7" for the season, which is normal for December 29th.
Last season, we had 27.9" as of December 19th.

With Round #2 wrapping up, our attention (after a quiet Saturday) will focus on the next in our series of storms. This is just a quick entry to set the table for that system and update you on the weather heading into Christmas.

Synopsis: Another Midwest storm is going to rocket east. This time, it will be slightly different. Unlike the Friday storm, which was more or less a west to east shot, this one is going to get some latitude. A powerful disturbance will shoot out of the Midwest and combine with overrunning moisture coming out of the Deep South. A coastal storm will develop and take over on Sunday afternoon. Snow will develop Sunday morning and end by early Sunday evening in most spots. Unlike the last few storms which have had fairly even snowfall distribution, this one will likely see higher totals further north and east. The reason? The coastal low takes over in time to rob much of the energy and shift it east. If I absolutely had to make a call, I would say a general 3-7 or 4-8" type of snow for most folks, with a shot at a few additional inches in the Adirondacks. I would bet against much more than 6-8" for most folks.

Start Time: Somewhere between 4 and 7 AM Sunday

End Time: Synoptic (widespread snow) will end between 5 and 7 PM

Worst Time: 12-4 PM...locally heavy snow is possible.

Another case where we're not looking at a massive snow event, but a potent quick mover. That said, there are some MAJOR differences that will be a factor in this one.

Storm Highlights

- Another case where the snow crystal growth zone will be higher up in the atmosphere than we'd like it to be, and based on today's underachieving snow, I would lean toward low end totals, which is why I am being conservative.

- Outside chance at thunder Sunday afternoon again, though this will be less "convective" that Friday's storm

- More wind, especially as the snow begins to end. Winds Sunday night may get to the point where blowing snow becomes a serious problem. Widespread 15-20 mph winds will pick up the snow and move it easily.

- Potential for significant lake effect Sunday night and Monday, especially in the Northern Oneida/Southern Lewis County area. Lake bands will shift south Monday and at least deliver a little additional snow to the Mohawk Valley and points south, but likely nothing significant...at this point.

- Brutal Arctic cold will follow in this system's wake. Highs on Monday... 10-15 degrees at best. Wind chills well below zero, and potential for 0 to -15 degree lows Monday night.

Should be interesting; we'll keep you posted.

Storm #4 and Changes?

Big changes on the models regarding the Christmas Eve storm. We're seeing good agreement in a messy scenario for much of the day and perhaps into the night. The latest model data, if taken verbatim, would give CNY snow to sleet/freezing rain to plain rain for awhile. It may end as some snow on Christmas morning. There isn't much wiggle room where we are right now. If it gets any colder, we're talking a potentially messy mix situation. If it gets any warmer, we could be talking about a pretty decent rain event. It's too early to talk about amounts, but this storm could be a bit more drawn out than the previous ones.

Another thing of note. The pattern going beyond Christmas is not exactly good for winter lovers. We're seeing signs of a budding Eastern ridge. Should this occur, the January thaw may begin with the calendar change. January has been a particularly useless month since 2005 for most of us, so playing the recent climatological card, it would make sense. We will see.

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Comments

Frankfort (In Town):

Another 2 inches since 3:30pm. For a total of 5.5 inches for the day. It‘s still lightly snowing out.

Thanks Becky for the answer on the purpleist hue.

Posted December 19th at 8:41 PM
Art (Oriskany Falls):

Matt
I make the total right now 7.5 inches and it is still snowing.
The temperature here is 16*

Heh Matt, when do you want me to take a water content reading. I haven‘t done that yet.
I am sure that last inch of snow has more water in it now.

Posted December 19th at 8:57 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Art: Go ahead and do it once you‘ve got your final tally. I‘ll be very curious to see what it was….Binghamton had less than a 10:1 ratio today.

Posted December 19th at 9:02 PM
Amy (Mt. Vision):

7” in Mt. Vision, between Oneonta and Cooperstown

Posted December 19th at 9:14 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Storm total is 7.25. The snow has almost stopped.

Frankfort: No problem. we have a pretty sky that changes colors due to the time of day and the weather.

I found a site you might find interesting. Its about using sky color to forecast the weather.

http://www.wwmag.net/forecast.htm

Posted December 19th at 9:15 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

6.50” inches here.

Posted December 19th at 9:17 PM
Darrin - Indian Lake:

7.5 inches and counting

Posted December 19th at 9:20 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

8.5 in herkimer. Its funny darrin the weather channel has indian lake over 9. They must of got it from a different part of town.

Posted December 19th at 9:31 PM
Amy (Salisbury):

6.5 inches for this storm. Still light snow. That brings season snowfall to date 43 inches.

Posted December 19th at 9:31 PM
Frankfort (In Town):

Becky: That website was great! I‘ll have to go back to it and read it more thoroughly as I just scanned it now. Sounds like fun reading come Sunday!

Posted December 19th at 9:34 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

I just notice there is a possible #5, when will these storm ever end lol

Posted December 19th at 9:38 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Temp is 12 degrees.

Posted December 19th at 9:40 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Here‘s the list of snow totals in progress.

Posted December 19th at 9:43 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Becky: There‘s definitely an Arctic boundary setup. It‘s 10 in Fulton, 20 in Syracuse, 10 in Albany, 2 in Watertown, but 19 in Rome. Impressive temperature gradient.

Posted December 19th at 9:44 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Mike W: With the pattern setup like it is. we have a conveyor belt over us that will keep bringing this systems. It looks to stay this way for at least a week probably longer.

Posted December 19th at 9:46 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

lol well as long as we dunt melt to much of the snow with rain events im totaly fine with it..

Posted December 19th at 9:49 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Sure looks that way. I‘m surprised to see it this early.

Posted December 19th at 9:51 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

I dunt no if it matters Matt for snowfall totals but im actually considered EAST HERKIMER..

Posted December 19th at 9:52 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

That is….will keep bringing these systems

Posted December 19th at 9:53 PM
Ralph L (New Hartford ( 900 ft )):

Measured between 6.5 – 7.0 inches at this location.

Posted December 19th at 9:58 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

6.5 here.

Posted December 19th at 10:03 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

Storm Total is an even 7 inches. Temp is at 18.

Posted December 19th at 10:05 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

I see the GFS and EURO are hinting at a negative NAO, This would be good news for snow-lovers on the East Coast.

Posted December 19th at 10:11 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

I measured the snow ratio at 12:1

Posted December 19th at 10:15 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Becky: Kudos to Jill and Adam…that was their call when I came in yesterday. Went with it, and it seemed to work well.

Posted December 19th at 10:18 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt: They made a good call. ...even with the storm coming much further north than was anticipated. The forecasted snow totals came in as predicted.

Posted December 19th at 10:29 PM
Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

8.1” Total here Matt & crew as of 10pm

Posted December 19th at 10:30 PM
MG(Point Rock):

Snow here was 6.2 inches, with 0.65 water content, so just a hair under 10:1. Most of the time it was pretty fine-grained.

Posted December 19th at 10:33 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Becky: I was a little disappointed in Otsego County. We got 1-2 10” or so reports, but not enough to make me feel good about the numbers I had out last night. I think ratios (less than 12:1 there) and the snow crystal growth zone being so high up in that area worked badly against them for totals.

Posted December 19th at 10:33 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Temp here is 8. I checked the Lowville weather station on O‘Brien RD and their down to -1

Posted December 19th at 10:40 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt: True!!.....However it was a very difficult storm to forcast. (high growth zone and a very fast forward speed)..... I think overall the forecast was very good.

Posted December 19th at 10:47 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

According to the ski report Redfield came in with 12.0” today.

Posted December 19th at 10:57 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

MG: I‘m a little surprised by that ratio. Up here it was 12:1….. That could account for the difference in snow totals over such a short distance.

still have a few flakes in the air.

Posted December 19th at 10:59 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Snow Totals list has received a nice overhaul.

Posted December 19th at 11:07 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The snowfall amounts varied quite a bit over short distances. (It all came down to where the heavier bands of snow went)

Posted December 19th at 11:10 PM
Bob ( Cooperstown ) :

Had just under 7” here in the Village. Temp.15.1
Light wind < than 5 mph A very light fine snow falling Great Job to everyone on the blog
Think the public heeded the warnings Sounded like very few accidents out there
Fire radio was pretty quiet Lets hope Sunday is as quiet.

Posted December 19th at 11:15 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt: I don‘t know if your keeping a record of snow ratios. The 8.2 inches of snow melted down to 0,68 for a water equivalent of 12:1

Posted December 20th at 12:01 AM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

(8.1”) storm total For Rome!!!!

That Brings us to 40.7” Season total so far!

Posted December 20th at 12:19 AM
Brick Tamland:

Hopefully, the warmup doesn‘t verify.

Posted December 20th at 12:33 AM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Matt,

Picked up 9.1” here in N.Marcy (3 miles south of HP village) elevation 850’ ....seasonal total up to 51.2”

Posted December 20th at 12:35 AM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

I noticed NWS ALB has gone with a watch for Herkimer county for Sunday… any word on if BGM will follow suite for Oneida county???

Posted December 20th at 1:14 AM
Anthony (N.Macy):

Matt,

Here is the question of the day…why is it alomost everyone in NYS experienced 10:1 or even 12:1 ratios while Syracuse is claiming they had a 16:1… this does not sound logical… could you please ellaborate on the potential differentiating components?

Posted December 20th at 1:22 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Anthony: There are several factors that influence the snow ratio. The amount of solar radiation, temperatures in low- to mid-level and temperatures into the mid- to upper-level of the atmosphere, as well as the relative humidity in the low- to mid-level into the upper levels of the atmosphere, also such things as surface wind speed can be a factor. For the most part these factors were the same for everybody. The only thing that might have been a little different would have been the snow crystal growth zone. It might have been a little higher / lower in some areas. But, that alone can’t account for such a large difference. I think if most people in the same general area report snow ratios of 10:1 – 12:1 and someone else in the same area comes up with a 16:1 (last I checked Syracuse was in NYS :-). .....) Then that person might have measured wrong. I don’t know if this is what happened. But I suspect it is the reason.

Posted December 20th at 2:34 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Watches up for Sunday

Posted December 20th at 5:58 AM
WINTER (Forestport):

Hi Matt, My understanding of the January Thaw is that of an historic January Thaw which would occur in the last part of January, around the 25th and last 3 to 5 days. A warm up not with in that time frame is just a thaw in January. Which has been common in recent years due to our changing climate.

Posted December 20th at 6:05 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Still snowing here lightly, NWS is saying it has to do with MOHAWK VALLEY CONVERGENCE andRESIDUAL SURFACE TROUGHING. Maybe 1 inch is possible.

Posted December 20th at 6:27 AM
weatherjan:

Oneida, NY: 8.2” storm total

Posted December 20th at 6:31 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

The NWS is making tom storm look just like yesterdays with 6-9 hrs of heavy precip. With rates 1-3 inches an hr, also puts a flow of 290-300 sometime on monday, with snow showers reaching all the way to the capital region.. I hope some of this is tru :)

Posted December 20th at 6:45 AM
Amy (Salisbury):

Still snowing here… lightly.

Posted December 20th at 7:34 AM
Jules (Ilion):

Ilion….8.4 inches

Posted December 20th at 7:39 AM
Larry - from Military Road Salisbury:

Light snow now here with a current temperature of 12 degrees. Had a total of S – 6.5” hear yesterday.

Preparing for round 3.

Posted December 20th at 7:41 AM
jb:

snowing steady in cedarville how long is it gonna last?

Posted December 20th at 7:59 AM
Jess (S. Utica):

Snowing really good here; believe it or not, my cat can‘t wait for me to get dressed and take her outside (she‘s meowing by the back door and trying to turn the doorknob. I put a leash on her and she frolicks in the snow — methinks she thinks she‘s a polar bear! If I can get a pic I‘ll send it to WKTV.

Posted December 20th at 8:40 AM
Darrin - Indian Lake:

Storm total for Indian Lake: 11 inches

Posted December 20th at 8:45 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Winter: I found this link.

http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/thaw/

It is an in depth look at research into the January Thaw. From what I‘ve looked at so far, it is very interesting and very informative.

Posted December 20th at 9:32 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Winter: Once on the site, click the link is the January Thaw a statistical phantom

Posted December 20th at 9:36 AM
Chris (Holland Patent):

We have 9” inches here this morning after all set and done. Lots of snow the kids are having fun playing in the whte stuff. Plowing the snow has been a trick. Looking ahead towards the next storm watches and warnings will probably be up if they are not already. Can you please add this to the snow totals chart. I am located just north 1 mile of the village of Holland Patent elevation 950’

Posted December 20th at 9:48 AM
randy Vitullo :

Holland Patent by the high school is at 9 inches.

Posted December 20th at 10:05 AM
Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

Ended up with a total of 8.7”. Beautiful outside now.

Posted December 20th at 10:07 AM
Jeff (Sherburne Hills):

Total of 8.5” here this morning, another dusting fluffy inch or so last night, bringing the seasonal snowfall to 35”. What does the new storm look like?? I see that almost the whole state is in a WS Watch except about 3 or four counties down here? What is up with that?

Posted December 20th at 10:16 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Picked up an inch of snow during the overnight from somewheres. If that was part of the system my storm total is up to 8.0” now.

Posted December 20th at 10:29 AM
Matt H Mount Upton:

Storm totaled about 7.5 inches. Slight crust on the snow today do not know if it was sleet or just heavy wet snow that turned crusty with last nights low of 12 degrees.

Posted December 20th at 10:34 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Models this morning are good for another 5-8” of snow for Oneida/Herk/Lewis. Here we go again!

Posted December 20th at 10:55 AM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Picked up an additional 1.8” since midnight ..,.. storm total to 10.9” elevation 850’ ...... 3 miles south of the HP village

Posted December 20th at 10:59 AM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Rob,

For some reason I don‘t have the link anymore to the NWS BGM discussion… do you have a link?

Posted December 20th at 11:14 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Jeff: I think the NWS is banking on Advisory criteria snow there. I think Buffalo went with a full watch for wind, blowing and drifting snow Sunday night. That‘s going to be a major issue.

Posted December 20th at 11:16 AM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

another 1’’ last night from the snow showers very fluffy stuff too! that brings season totals to 42.6’’

Posted December 20th at 11:18 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Also, anyone else with updated snow totals after last night‘s fluff event, repost ‘em!

Posted December 20th at 11:19 AM
Jack Dolgeville:

centre of village with 9 inches. Partly sunny and COLD at 1130am.

Matt, do you think the Salisbury/Dolgeville areas will be affected by the LES event on Sunday night/early Monday, or just sticking to the 4-8/5-10 projection. Thanks

Posted December 20th at 11:25 AM
WINTER (Forestport):

Becky, Thank you.

Posted December 20th at 11:38 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

I picked up 1.5 inches overnight. total of 9.7

Storm # 3 looks to be a lot like storm # 2
However, I think the snow ratio might be higher. Also the winds with this system will be a lot stronger. 20- 30 mph with higher gust. So Sunday afternoon and night could see ground blizzard conditions.

Posted December 20th at 11:42 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Winter: your welcome. its is a very interesting topic.

Posted December 20th at 11:48 AM
Brian:

Old Forge received 9 inches.

Posted December 20th at 11:50 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Becky that lake band looks wild up there tomorrow night. Blizzard conditions are definitely possible for you. Anthony here is the 00Z discussion.
http://weather.gfc.state.ga.us/nwsafd/FCSTS/BGMAFDBGM.HTM

Posted December 20th at 12:03 PM
WINTER (Forestport):

Becky, Yes it is. And it has nostalgic meaning for me as “The January Thaw” was one of the things that my Grandmother, a farm girl from Cherry Valley, taught us about when we were kids. My Grandmother said that all of those old timer sayings would always work until “they walked on the moon”. I would laugh when she would say that, but now I am beginning to see that she was right.

Posted December 20th at 12:03 PM
ALEX(little falls):

10.5inches for the storm total 28.9for the season total

Posted December 20th at 12:39 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

Final Storm Total:8.0 inches

Posted December 20th at 1:21 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Albany has issued Winter Storm Warnings for Herkimer, Montgomery, Fulton and Hamilton Counties.

Posted December 20th at 1:24 PM
amelia in sauquoit:

Is there any way that this new storm will die out and we end up with only a little bit of snow? I we only have a watch for now and only 5-9 inches. Could we end up with the lower end of that?

Posted December 20th at 1:29 PM
MG(Point Rock):

Adding in last night‘s fluff, my storm total is up to 7.0 inches. Regarding Syracuse‘s 16:1 ratio, it‘s interesting that I recall a blog thread last year with a number of people questioning their snow measurements there. They almost always have a higher ratio than I do, even though they are usually warmer,

Posted December 20th at 1:39 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Amelia: We could end up with the lower end of this, but it‘s not like this thing is just going to die out. This storm may be worse than Friday‘s storm on a number of levels, mainly regarding the wind, cold and blowing snow. Ground blizzard conditions are likely tomorrow night. The only reason there‘s “only” a watch is because they haven‘t upgraded yet. That will come by 3:30-4 I think.

Posted December 20th at 1:46 PM
Sean O. (Oriskany):

11.9 inches here

Posted December 20th at 2:18 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Rob I saw that. I think this is going to be a huge LES event.

Winter: Those old timer sayings hold a lot of truth.

Posted December 20th at 2:41 PM
Brian (Lairdsville):

Matt: 7.75 for the storm and the season total is 37.8.

Posted December 20th at 2:42 PM
Barbara (Laurens - Rt 205):

Hi Matt and All,
Finally got out into the snow… total here is 8 inches, which includes some we got this morning. Route 205 is down to black pavement, but Oneonta city streets are terrible – inches of slushy greasy snow throughout. That’s ok… we’re ready for tomorrow’s storm – got the fruitcake and cocoa and will stay home!

Posted December 20th at 3:00 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Winter Storm Warning will be issued for Oneida county. Also State police issued a statement for motorists to avoid Rte 5A in New Hartford due to “gridlock”.

Posted December 20th at 3:25 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Rob: I don‘t think the forecast is helping, but theoretically, today is the last real shopping day before Christmas where most people can go out. I would not want to be at any mall in the Northeast today.

Posted December 20th at 3:30 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Yeah the storm tomorrow sort of pushed everyone out the door today. I went out lastnight after midnight to Wal-Mart ; )

Posted December 20th at 3:38 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Warning for northern Oneida just went up

Posted December 20th at 3:39 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
332 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...MORE SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD SNOW OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES LAKE ONTARIO, A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

NYZ009-037-046-057-210445-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0009.081221T1200Z-081222T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0011.081221T1100Z-081221T2300Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-OTSEGO-DELAWARE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BOONVILLE...UTICA...ROME...ONEONTA...
COOPERSTOWN...WALTON...DELHI
332 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 9 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND CAUSE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DURING THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL-HAZARDS OR YOUR FAVORITE
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BINGHAMTON

Posted December 20th at 3:45 PM
Sarah:

Just got back from the Consumer Sqaure area in New Hartford. Terrible. If you don‘t have to go….don‘t. I was in and out of stores in no down, but spend more than 25 mintues just trying to get out of the parking lot. OK…..now onto weather. Looks like it will nasty. Getting colder out.

Posted December 20th at 3:55 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Buffalo should be putting out Winter storm and LES warnings soon

Posted December 20th at 3:57 PM
Mel (Westernville):

It is for all of Oneida County

Posted December 20th at 3:57 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

BUF to issue warnings for Lewis sometime today…

Posted December 20th at 3:58 PM
amelia in sauquoit:

Well I see there is now a warning. I love to get snow especially this time of year, but I have so much planned tomorrow. Oh well. Bring it on!

Posted December 20th at 4:06 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

000
WWUS41 KBUF 202144 CCA
WSWBUF

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
443 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...A VERY WINTRY PERIOD IN STORE...

.A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY WORK ACROSS OUR REGION
BEGINNING AFTER 3 OR 4 AM IN THE WEST AND ABOUT DAYBREAK FOR THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.

BY FAR THOUGH...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL
BE BLOWN AROUND WITH SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING...CAUSING FREQUENT
WHITEOUTS. THE WORST AREAS WILL BE EAST OF THE LAKES WHERE
LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

NYZ010>013-085-210600-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0008.081221T1200Z-081222T1000Z/
/O.COR.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.081221T0900Z-081221T1800Z/
/O.COR.KBUF.LE.W.0018.081221T1800Z-081222T1200Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
443 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM
EST SUNDAY.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LAKE ENHANCED AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH COULD GUST WELL OVER 40 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH FREQUENT WHITEOUTS. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 3 TO 5 INCHES BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO MEASURE DUE TO
THE WIND. LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE LAKE
EFFECT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A PROBLEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT STORM. THERE MAY BE ROAD
CLOSURES AND IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

Posted December 20th at 4:51 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

NYZ006>008-210600-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0008.081221T1200Z-081222T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0011.081221T1200Z-081222T1800Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
443 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNDAY NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ADD TO THE
PROBLEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FROM THIS STORM WILL BE WIDESPREAD
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND FREQUENT WHITEOUTS CAUSING LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES.

THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT STORM. THERE MAY BE
ROAD CLOSURES AND IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

Posted December 20th at 4:54 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Is there a reason are warning is to mon moring and to the east of us there only to sunday night.

Posted December 20th at 4:54 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Sorry for warning out of the area…..I grabbed the wrong one

Posted December 20th at 4:56 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

... WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NEXT WINTER STORM WILL BRING 8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW THE ADIRONDACKS... WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE EFFECT WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW FALL RATES ON SUNDAY COULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR.

WINDS SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND TO 20 TO 40 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

THE STORM WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING... AND WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY MORNING IT WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE VIRGINIA CAPES... AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NEAR BOSTON SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY NIGHT... AND SNOWFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY LAKE EFFECT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Posted December 20th at 4:58 PM
Jeff (Sherburne Hills):

Looks like we might get out of the heavy duty snow down here. Now if we can escape the winds that will be perfect!

Posted December 20th at 4:58 PM
Bob Jones (Ilion):

Wow…what an incredible warmup we could be getting around the first week of January! I hope it doesn‘t melt all the snow!

Posted December 20th at 4:58 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Every 1 elses is totaly different

Posted December 20th at 4:59 PM
vinny (east utica):

becky,is the storm supposed to be stronger in the north country?i noticed they said more than 8 inches for those counties.is utica and the mohawk valley goint to get less?

Posted December 20th at 4:59 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Mike W: I‘m not sure. However I think Albany will move the time back sometime soon.

Posted December 20th at 5:00 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Vinny: For the most part the storm will be about the same in the north county as it down your way. The worse will be north of Albany and east of Utica. I would not be surprised to see snow amount of 14 to 16 inches in parts of the adirondacks. On the other hand the north country will take a hard hit from LES Sunday night into Monday with some areas seeing 18 + inches

Posted December 20th at 5:06 PM
vinny (east utica):

thank you becky

Posted December 20th at 5:07 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

temp here is 5 degrees

Posted December 20th at 5:39 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Does any 1 knw how much liquid precip where suppose to get from this storm??

Posted December 20th at 6:06 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Mike W: 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch.

Posted December 20th at 6:17 PM
Pat (Clayville):

Sounds like another great storm is on the way. Does anyone think the rain we will get from the next two storms will ruin all the snowpack?

Posted December 20th at 6:20 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Thanks Mike S thats a pretty big spread..

Posted December 20th at 6:27 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Last time I looked it was around 0.80 around here and the Adirondacks.

Here is the link

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

Posted December 20th at 6:30 PM
Bob Jones (Ilion):

Pat,

Shhhhhhh! Don’t talk about that kind of stuff. People will get upset.

Posted December 20th at 6:44 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

And becky what is the ratio looking like Thank you

Posted December 20th at 6:50 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Pat: the Sunday storm will be all snow for everyone. The next storm # 4 will probably be a wintry mix. However, i think everyone will still have snow on the ground for Christmas.

Posted December 20th at 6:53 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The ratio should be higher than the Friday storm. 12:1-15:1

Posted December 20th at 6:56 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Thanks becky appreciate the help. Well if all this stays the same the snow totals should be higher then ecpected at the moment. WE shall see

Posted December 20th at 7:03 PM
Larry - from Military Road Salisbury:

Overnight I picked up a total of S – 2.5” so if this is considered to be the same event as yesterday‘s then I have a total of S -9.0“s. That last snow that fell overnight was real fluffy and light.

Temperature here at 19:30 is 4 degrees, skies partly cloudy with more moving in and a wind that is now calm.

Posted December 20th at 7:40 PM
Jmd (Fonda):

Mike W: to answer post #103 from NWS Albany forecast discussion

“In southeast areas amounts were marginal at best for ws warn
criteria. In addition NAM and GFS showed warm air aloft…causing
some mixing as least as far north as Dutchess and Litchfield counties.
This will be cut off quickly as the low moves northeast. In
addition these areas will be subjected to the higher precipitation
rates the least amount of time. So these factors were enough to
go with advisory in these two counties.

Father north precipitation will persist several more hours…there will be no
mix…and full impacts of cutoff and wrap around will be felt. Went
with two different length warnings much as the initial watch was
set up. But shifted the one ending at 03utc a tier of counties
farther north. Sunday night the surface low is captured by 500hpa cutoff
and only travels from off Boston to East Port Maine. This will leave
the northern areas in the cold conveyor belt precipitation…and with deep
coastal low and cold air advection winds will become strong. In addition there will be
further lake enhancement of snow across the north tier of
counties…hence keeping the warning going there till 12utc Monday. ”

Posted December 20th at 7:44 PM
Trista B. (Richfield Springs):

Hey Becky, you seem to know a lot about the upcoming storms,I was wondering with the sunday storm, How much do you think Otsego county will receive? We got close to 11 inches yesterday, and with another good one, it will be better snowmobiling rideing.

Posted December 20th at 7:52 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

O i def understand that JMD but what got me is they has the warning only to 6pm sunday for onieda county for 5-9 inches yet they had the warning for the western mohawk and DACKS till 7 am monday with 8-16 inches. LOL we are only 12 miles from utica.

Posted December 20th at 7:55 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

This storm is starting to look pretty good.

Posted December 20th at 8:07 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Trista B: I would say generaly 6-9 inches. The 9 would be more isolated and confined more to the NE part of the county.

Posted December 20th at 8:20 PM
olddoos (williamson):

Here by Sodus Bay between rochester and syracuse We got 18” from the storm and lake effect It‘s the most snow we‘ve had to deal with in a while

Posted December 20th at 8:43 PM
Ching:

How do you think the roads will be tomorrow between 9:45am or so and 2pm ish? Is that noon to 4pm window still looking like the worst for driving? Thanks!

Posted December 20th at 8:49 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The snow will start 5-6 AM, The Snow will fall heavily at times from late morning into the afternoon.

Posted December 20th at 8:56 PM
Brick Tamland:

Matt &Co., I know you have a big storm knocking on the door and are busy with it but can you give me an idea on how bad the warmup is going to be? Thanks
Mike D

Posted December 20th at 8:56 PM
dave hp (holland patent ny):
Honestly I am more worried about the wind any indication when that will start ? The last two storm were pretty much lambs as far as wind goes . If there is a lot of wind 9 to 10 inches will look like two to three feet with the kind of drifting I get .
Posted December 20th at 9:26 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Reading other forums and looking at some of the models it appears the storm is more east then expect, will this have a major impact in are weather.

Posted December 20th at 9:56 PM
Mike (N. Rome) (Rome):

Becky, I think WKTV needs to put you on their payroll. Nice work! Snow is fun but stinks big time for those traveling in the next couple days. Safe travels to all.

Posted December 20th at 10:05 PM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

Mike W,

What you‘re talking about is the latest NAM forecast….and as Matt probably has mentioned before it‘s not always the best choice. If the storm goes further east, it will change where that lake band sets up. I‘m waiting for the new GFS to decide if our forecast needs to be tweaked or not.

Posted December 20th at 10:05 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Dave HP: Your right the wind is going to make this storm a lot worse than Fridays storm. The winds will be on the backside of the storm. Matt talks about it in the entry above.

Mike W: To be honest, I have not had time to look at anything last few hours. However, if the storm is moving a little faster than expected. it could start a little earlier. The overall storm should behave the same….just the time frame could be different. I would wait for the next model run and see what that says.

Posted December 20th at 10:07 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Boston up to 12.5” now. The NAM really hits them hard again late tomorrow with possibly another foot. They got some ocean effect snow going on now just south of town which is pretty neat.

Posted December 20th at 10:10 PM
Art (Oriskany Falls):

Last night we got 2 more inches of snow so I guess that would make the total for Oriskany Falls
9.5 inches.

Posted December 20th at 10:22 PM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

By far, the biggest challege is going to be the lake effect for tomorrow night. Lake effect forecast

Posted December 20th at 10:24 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Surprised BUF didn‘t go with a blizzard warning up there. You do not want to be driving in the north country tomorrow night by any means. Even down here on Monday isn‘t going to be no walk in the park.

Posted December 20th at 10:32 PM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

Rob,

Blizzard warnings should be saved for the absolute worse case scenarios (like one per every 3 years events). This is not one of those scenarios. Yes, tomorrow will be quite challenging to drive at times and visibility will be poor, but the term “blizzard” might be a bit over the top with this one. That‘s just my opinion though.

Posted December 20th at 10:39 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

I totally agree. Sometimes they issue them when they shouldn‘t. For instance check out the statements issued for Iowa. They‘re not even calling for falling snow! But LES can cause near zero visability with calm winds. When you throw in 30-50mph gusts for several hours, that‘s a blizzard to me.

Posted December 20th at 10:48 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Rob: I thought BUF would issue a LES warnings with ground blizzard conditions. Because the LES setup is going to make travel up this way almost impossible.

Posted December 20th at 11:10 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The coastal is going to be really wound-up by the time it in Maine.

Posted December 20th at 11:54 PM
Matt (HP) :

Very Very Cold tonight, was at 9 degrees, now up to 13. Made it to about 18 during the day.

Posted December 21st at 12:46 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Just wanted to update storm totals here. For the day Friday we had 6.50” inches of snow. Saturday morning between 12:00 a.m. and 10:00a.m. we picked up an additional 3.00” inches of snow. STORM TOTAL HERE IS 9.50” INCHES.

Posted December 21st at 2:54 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Time 2 hit the hay, but looking at the radar its def not looking good for cny. Hopefully when i wake up its a different story, but for now im not liking what im seeing..

Posted December 21st at 3:56 AM
Stacy ( Stratford):

Snowing moderately here! Already have a good inch on the ground. I just looked at the radar, and it appears that the darker areas ( heaviest snow) are more south east than originally thought? Am I correct on this?

Posted December 21st at 5:38 AM
Jim (Whitesboro):

Woke up to let the dogs out at 5. Very Light flurries. Went to let them back in around 5:10 and it was moderate snow.

Posted December 21st at 5:42 AM
Jim (Whitesboro:

Looks on radar like the thick of it is approaching already. I see a heavy band approaching utica area from th S-SW.

Posted December 21st at 5:46 AM
WINTER (Forestport):

Windy – snowing moderately – fine flakes – 21 degrees. There is probably 1’‘on the ground here also.

Posted December 21st at 5:49 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Morning folks. I‘m in for Jill today since she was kind enough to fill in for me this past week. I am just beginning to pour over the maps to see how this thing is panning out and if radar is being honest or if we‘ll see it fill in….I‘ll adjust snow totals as needed, if needed.

One thing is for sure, driving is BAD right now. It‘s not so much the falling snow as the blowing snow at this point. Roads go from several inches to bare spots very fast. Visibility is quite low.

Posted December 21st at 6:04 AM
wilma (Poland):

some strong wind gusts picked up in this area around 5am or so…and it‘s been non-stop.

Posted December 21st at 6:21 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Last few frames of radar are really showing the precip strengthening on the front end. There is still a rather potent dry slot. There are some signs of it filling a bit, but if the model guidance tells the story, it won‘t. But, it will slow down a bit. Bill‘s numbers from last night should be generally right, but I do foresee the potential of under 3” in many spots south and west of the east shore of Oneida Lake, with 2-5” in most other locations, except the Tug and Adirondacks, which will see 5-9” or so through 5 PM today. Snow amounts are going to be extremely difficult to accurately get because of the blowing snow. Just try and do your best.

Working on lake effect now.

Posted December 21st at 6:21 AM
Barbara (Laurens - Rt 205):

Morning Matt,
Snowing lightly here, 20 degrees, no breeze.
I must be nuts to be up at this hour fussing over the weather… :)

Posted December 21st at 6:32 AM
Laurie (Dolgeville):

Snow looks to be coming down pretty steady here. I was up at 4 and there was nothing—now at 6:30 it seems like maybe that was just a dream—-cars are driving very slow which probably means the roads are bad

Posted December 21st at 6:35 AM
Stacy (Stratford):

Matt, it is snowing here very hard! It didnt snow this hard at any given time during Fridays storm. Its accumulating quickly. I hope it doesnt stay at this pace very long!

Posted December 21st at 6:38 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Models are in surprisingly good agreement on all fronts..which is scary! I‘m afraid to make any significant changes, because usually that‘s when you lose, but I will go with my gut/radar regarding today.

As for Lake Snow. The Tug Hill will get blasted tonight, with very heavy snow. I can‘t really foresee significant organization to any bands. Band could organize between 5 and 9 PM in Central Lewis (mainly up toward Montague), as shear relaxes. Shear increases a bit overnight, so I am assuming, a spray of squalls and lighter snows will be present across much of Lewis, N Herkimer and far N Oneida Counties tonight and toward early morning. Band will take a turn to the south and remain a multiple band spray Monday morning and drop through, bringing everyone a general 1-3” (w/ isolated higher amounts, depending on if there is any significant banding). I think areas south of I-90 may see some significant organization Monday night for a short time, toward far S Oneida/Herkimer (not in the Mohawk Valley), Madison and maybe N Chenango/Otsego.

Elsewhere, this wind isn‘t going to relent much. Expect blowing and drifting snow, even when there is none falling. Wind Chills are going to become dangerously cold Monday, especially in the Adirondacks. Numerous advisories will likely be hoisted around the region later today and tonight for wind, blowing snow and wind chill.

Posted December 21st at 6:44 AM
Abner (Holland Patent):

Been snowing heavy since 5:30 AM. Picked up an inch so far.

Posted December 21st at 6:54 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

In Herkimer County the following roads are closed as of 7 AM due to blowing and drifting snow:

State Route 29 between Middleville and Salisbury
State Route 170 between SR-29 and Little Falls
State Route 169 between Middleville and Little Falls
State Route 178 between Fairfield and Little Falls

Posted December 21st at 6:55 AM
John (Ohio):

Very heavy snow here, very limited visibility. Just went out on Rt 8 but turned around after less than 5 minutes due to snowing/blowing. Less than a inch new so far just can not see anything!

Posted December 21st at 6:55 AM
WINTER (Forestport):

I have been outside…...And it feels like a blizzard.!!!!!!!!

Posted December 21st at 6:56 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

We have not experienced the wind down here yet, but it is snowing quite hard with visibility on the way into work under a quarter mile. about 1-2 inches so far this morning.

Posted December 21st at 7:00 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Yeah, folks, the worst of the wind for now is going to be in the Mohawk Valley (perfect flow for winds to funnel up from Albany) and on hilltops just south and just north of the Valley, as well as exposed hilltops over 1,000’. Everyone else will get into it later today and tonight.

Posted December 21st at 7:07 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Winds here on Smith Hill are gusting between 30 and 40 mph consistently now.

Posted December 21st at 7:26 AM
teri (deerfiled):

I have to chuckle. I just looked at my morning WKTV weather text and it says it‘s only going to be mostly cloudy today. Maybe that program needs a little tweaking LOL!

Posted December 21st at 7:34 AM
Jim formerly North Utiva near Schuyler Line:

Matt, planning to drive up from Myrtle Beach after work Tuesday and arrive around 9 or 10 am Wed. morning. Any idea yet what is in store for me travel wise? I am, as usual, dreading the drive through Pennsylvannia and then 12 from Binghampton. Maybe I should stay on 81 and take the thruway from Syracuse? Happy Holidays!

Posted December 21st at 7:39 AM
Koz (Ilion):

Moderate snow here in Ilion, winds are calm.

Posted December 21st at 7:40 AM
MG(Point Rock):

I just measured here, and got 3.2 inches. That‘s with measuring in 10 places (avoiding obvious drifts) and averaging. Visibility is around a quarter mile, although in the higher wind gusts, I‘ve been unable to see my barn, which is 100 feet away.

Posted December 21st at 7:42 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Let me tell ya, you guys can keep the wind, and we will keep the snow down here :)!!!

Posted December 21st at 7:45 AM
Randy:

Moderate snow right now, very small flakes that you can hear hit the ground. No winds yet and the radar loop I just saw shows a dry slot coming through her in the next few hours. About 2” on the ground here.

Posted December 21st at 8:02 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Snowfall forecast from 9AM to 5 PM

Snowfall forecast for lake effect tonight.

Posted December 21st at 8:04 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Folks, anyone in Herkimer County…we could use snow reports. NWS is looking…radar suggesting 2”+/hr rates ongoing.

Posted December 21st at 8:30 AM
Mike(Leonardsville):

Matt you might want to up the snowfall rates up a bit. This storm is back building towards Ithaca and I already have over 3+ inches of snow and it‘s coming down very heavy.

Posted December 21st at 8:38 AM
Jodi (Ilion):

I would guesstimate 2 inches here maybe a bit more.. sorry didn‘t get a spot ready before it started

Posted December 21st at 8:46 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

PS: Winter finally arrived safely at 7:04 AM, so we‘ve got that out of the way.

Posted December 21st at 8:52 AM
Ryan (Sauquoit):

Wow really only 2-5 inches for us thats strange unless it really slows down considerably i have already 2.30 inches on the ground !

Posted December 21st at 9:01 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Well this snow doesn‘t want to let up at all. Still snowing moderate to heavy at times with over 3 inches now on the hill in Norwich. The winds have begun to increase as well.

Posted December 21st at 9:03 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Moderate snow falling here. Have 2.0” so far.

Posted December 21st at 9:04 AM
padre (Middleville):

2-3” of new snow since I went out at 6:30am. The wind is gusty and it‘s easy to see why 169, 170 and 29 are closed out of the village. Route 28 between Middleville and the West Canada Valley school have been plowed and passable. We canceled church services this morning.

Posted December 21st at 9:04 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Remember guys, that‘s a map from 9 AM through 5 PM…not storm total. Basically additional snowfall.

Posted December 21st at 9:05 AM
Ryan (Sauquoit):

Woops, sorry matt my fault :)

Posted December 21st at 9:08 AM
Pat (Clayville):

Windy and blowing snow on cedar lake rd. Can‘t imagine the wind could get any worse. About 2“of snow since it started. Good day to stay home and make Christmas cookies

Posted December 21st at 9:10 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Measured 10 spots and averaged between 2 1/2 and 3 1/2 inches.. So i will go with 3 :)

Posted December 21st at 9:24 AM
Michelle (Prospect):

Snowing heavily and winds are horrible. lost power once. its snowing so heavy and the winds are so strong i cant see the house across the street

Posted December 21st at 9:25 AM
Dain from Cold Brook:

I have received 3 inches of fresh snow so far. I cannot see very far. Good thing I fixed the snowblower yesterday…..

Posted December 21st at 9:30 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Snowing moderate – heavy here, wind seems to have calmed down a little…

Posted December 21st at 9:40 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Radar is filling back by SYR. This is good news. Wind hasn‘t been terrible here yet. Visability has been 1/2 mile.

Posted December 21st at 9:43 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Heavy burst pushing threw now, also looks like it is filling little in PA. Keeping my finger crossed.

Posted December 21st at 9:53 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

The flow tomorrow doesn‘t look too bad. About 290-300. Hopefully we can get some more persistant banding than just squalls.

Posted December 21st at 9:55 AM
Amy (Salisbury):

Sorry I didn‘t post yesterday. I took the good weather opportunity to go visit a friend South West of Syracuse.

Friday storm totaled at 6.5”. I also received the 3” of fluff that everyone is talking about!

So far this morning it is snowing moderately and we have picked up 3.5” as of 9:15 a.m.

Matt: It is Rte. 170A that is closed not Rte. 178. I grew up there! Trust me… incredible! I thought you would like to update your closing etc., so people aren‘t confused. I don‘t know of a rte. 178 in this area.

Posted December 21st at 10:00 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

I dunt care how much we got i just wanna see some.. I have yet to see any kind of LES. I rememeber when i lived in albany it always seemed like there was snow going down the mohawk.. I moved here for the soul reason of having the best of both worlds, close enough for good coastal storms and a little LES.

Posted December 21st at 10:04 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Just a quick peak ahead. I will post more extensively on this tomorrow night, but the Christmas Eve storm looks nasty right now. Snow, quickly to sleet and freezing rain, perhaps for a prolonged period in the Adirondacks, then over to plain rain, but temperatures in the 30s to near 40, so it will likely only serve to compress the snowpack rather than melt a lot of it. Christmas Day will feature a few flurries.

Then, either Saturday or Sunday, a storm tracking WELL to our west is going to rocket warm air in here, and the potential for locally heavy rain is in the cards Sunday. What a mess.

Posted December 21st at 10:12 AM
Donna (In the Valley):

One week of winter then onto SPRING!!!! Spring brings Flowers and warm Sunshine!!!

OK – Back to what‘s left of winter – Snowing here modertly with big flakes here in town. Haven‘t been out yet to measure.

Posted December 21st at 10:25 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Real nasty looking band of snow in N, W and Central Oneida and Lewis Counties right now spreading eastward. We could be talking 1-2” per hour underneath that band.

Posted December 21st at 10:29 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Heavy snow here. The lake is really helping us out. We would of been done by now.

Posted December 21st at 10:34 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

We have had a nice band over herkimer for close to an hr now..

Posted December 21st at 10:36 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

We have about 4 inches on the ground, i dunt if it just me but the winds have really calmed down.. The snow is going north to south not east to west.

Posted December 21st at 10:41 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Snowing hard here in Norwich (at least on the hill) from what I can see out the one window lol!! Looks really nasty outside.

Posted December 21st at 10:44 AM
Barb (LC):

OK…my son is coming home from school today (he should have been home yesterday). Is the time between 1 and 3 still looking like it would be a target time for him to come home from Rochester? I would like to call him and tell him not to come home today, but tomorrow isn‘t going to be any better…thanks!!

Posted December 21st at 10:45 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Flake size has increased here. It‘s really coming down now. Looks like we‘re adding some Atlantic moisture to the mix which might be causing the large flakes.

Posted December 21st at 10:49 AM
Mel (Westernville):

4” here so far and still snowing moderately. Roads weren‘t really that bad going to church and back in Lee Center.

Posted December 21st at 10:50 AM
Barb (LC):

It‘s snowing pretty hard in Lee Center…visibility is BAD. We probably got about 5”-6” of snow…it started about 4:00 this morning (yes, I was up watching TV..couldn‘t sleep). Huge flakes…was very windy earlier..not so much now.

Posted December 21st at 10:55 AM
MG(Point Rock):

I‘m up to 6.5 inches— been getting about an inch an hour steadily, and still heavy snow currently. Wind has backed off. Flake size is much larger than we had in round 1 or round 2.

Posted December 21st at 10:56 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Your right Rob – flakes have definitely increased in size now.

Posted December 21st at 10:58 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Just measured 3.0”

Posted December 21st at 11:00 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

It‘s basically pouring snow here. I‘m back home now, but will be watching this for a few hours. It‘s extremely beautiful though now without the wind.

Posted December 21st at 11:05 AM
Art (Oriskany Falls):

I just measured 4 inches of snow so far.
We had real fine snow, fine snow and big snow flakes here this morning.
The temperature is 2* and the wind is still coming from the East
The wind not too bad here right now.

Posted December 21st at 11:06 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Matt do u think its safe to say that most places in the area will be 5-9 inches since it looks close to 5 already with the radar looking good for atleast the next couple hrs..

Posted December 21st at 11:06 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Snowfall has really picked up in the last 10 min. Flakes finally starting to get bigger here.. Wind picked up also

Posted December 21st at 11:16 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Its def coming down at clip of 1-2 inches per hr, looks heavier then any time during last storm..

Posted December 21st at 11:23 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Looks like the back end has pushed east of I-81

Posted December 21st at 11:24 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

looks like it is finally starting to wind down here in Chenango Co. Snow has definately let up in intensity. If I had to guess (which I have to since I am barracaded inside), I would say 5-6 inches out there.

Posted December 21st at 11:36 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Mike: Maybe more like 4-8”, but close enough!

Posted December 21st at 11:39 AM
Bailey, West Winfield:

Steady snow is West Winfield. It started in earnest around 9:30 and hasn‘t stopped since. It does seem to be slowing up a bit; I‘d guess it falling at a rate of .75 inches per hour. There is no wind.

Posted December 21st at 11:41 AM
sn (forestport):

Heavy snow up this way. Havent been out to measure (of shoves again for that matter) yet. Getting pretty windy here too.
Pat (comment #180) I agree with you on the making cookies I think thats what I‘m going to be doing with the kids. Ah the joys of winter. I will get a measurement and post it as soon as i can. I‘d say if you dont have to go out today don‘t – its nasty out there. Have a good day everyone :)

Posted December 21st at 11:42 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

LOL yea matt i thought u ment 2-5 for the whole storm but just watched the vidoe and it was 2-5 on what already fell at 10 am.

Posted December 21st at 11:44 AM
jb:

when are the winds gonna pick up.

Posted December 21st at 11:48 AM
Matt (HP) :

We‘re already seeing the end of this as far the storm goes???

Posted December 21st at 11:49 AM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

we have “about” 4.5” here in Rome and counting! its very hare to measure this time! lol about 6:30 am it was snowing and blowing so hard here the visibility here was less than 100 feet! crazy stuff! currently moderate snow with big flakes. not as windy as this morning.

Posted December 21st at 11:50 AM
John (Ohio):

5” storm total so far. Light wind.

Posted December 21st at 11:50 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Matt: Yup…much faster than it looked yesterday I guess. There will still be periods of snow throughout the day…just not quite like this. Focus shifts to lake effect now. Buffalo is getting crushed, which means the Tug shouldn‘t be far behind.

Jb: A little later this afternoon and into tonight.

Posted December 21st at 11:50 AM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Picked up an 1 1/2 inches in a lil over an hr. Total up to 5 1/2 inches ..

Posted December 21st at 11:51 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Matt are we going to include tomorrows LES for the storm total or keep that separate?

Posted December 21st at 11:53 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Rob: I think basically this “storm ends” this afternoon. Anything after will be LES and probably separate.

Posted December 21st at 12:01 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

wow what a sharp back edge! looks like the snow will be stopping suddenly in the next 10 minutes here!

Posted December 21st at 12:02 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Ok…have 4.0” here at noon.

Posted December 21st at 12:04 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

I thought the snow was gonna start getting lighter instead it got heavier..

Posted December 21st at 12:05 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

will we see some lake effect off of lake erie at all here matt?

Posted December 21st at 12:05 PM
Heather (mohawk 5s):

snow has picked up alot here visibility is bad matt and crew please remind your people that have to be on the road in any kids of snow storm like todays to clean off the back of their cars i see alot of people driving down the road with no headlights and snow covering their taillights if they are driving slower then 40 please use flashers on any highway so people can see them aslo my hubbys friend call said travel from syr. is very slow hasn‘t been able to go over 20mph thanks happy holidays to all

Posted December 21st at 12:12 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Stevo: I doubt it. It may get into Rochester, with a split, second band a little further south, maybe toward like Vienna or Taberg, but it would be awfully tough to get into Rome with the current trajectory. Overnight tonight, precip totals may get to 1.5” south of Watertown, translating to a ton of snow up north. The current snow forecast for tonight looks good. Still thinking the most snow tomorrow into tomorrow night ends up south of the Mohawk Valley. We‘ll see.

Posted December 21st at 12:13 PM
John (Ohio):

Power just “hiccuped” here, ok now

Posted December 21st at 12:14 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

Total up to 5.1 inches as of 12:15 PM

Posted December 21st at 12:17 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

im assuming the snow storm is over here.It looks that way according to radar,and anything else would be lake activity. snow has stopped currently. 5” of snow storm total.

47.6” of snow season total so far!!!

Posted December 21st at 12:18 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Just getting a light snow up here

Posted December 21st at 12:24 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

WE are getting pounded here with very heavy snow.. You can just at the radar and see all of herkimer county with very heavy snow.. Another band looked like it formed to ure west but looks pretty weak..

Posted December 21st at 12:30 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Highmarket already had 8.0” at 10:30. They‘re going to have an impressive total by tomorrow morning!

Posted December 21st at 12:34 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

WE are getting quarter sized snowflakes

Posted December 21st at 12:45 PM
Amy (Salisbury):

2.5” more inches from 9:15 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. That makes 6” so far for this storm. Still coming down hard.

Does anyone know road conditions for Rte. 167 from Dolgeville to Little Falls or Rte. 29 from Dolgveille to Johnstown? My husband has to go to work tonight in Canajoharie. Thanks!

Posted December 21st at 12:46 PM
randy Vitullo :

Any ideas on when the winds are going to start?

Posted December 21st at 12:49 PM
jb:

no wind here in cedarville nice and calm

Posted December 21st at 12:49 PM
Jenn little falls:

I am not sure of snow that has falen as my children have been playing but we are getting hammered. The flakes are huge and it beautiful I will try to find a spot to keep track but we are being hammered at this point.

Posted December 21st at 12:51 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Snow has stopped here. Measured in a number of spots. I would estimate the storm total around 8.5 inches

Posted December 21st at 12:54 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Yea same thing here jenn the flakes are huge, we should have some where in the 7 inch range atleast her in east herkimer..

Posted December 21st at 12:54 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

These flakes have made it perfect for snowballs and snowman :)

Posted December 21st at 12:57 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

At least I thought it had stopped. ..just getting a light snow. The Flake-size is small

Posted December 21st at 12:58 PM
Frankfort (in town):

We got 3.5”. Measured in 10 different spots.

Snow is letting up and it‘s getting brighter.

Posted December 21st at 12:59 PM
Donna (In the Valley):

As what Frankfort says it‘s 3.5 inches here. Did the measurements right before the plow came to clean out the driveway.

Didn‘t hear any wind nor is it windy out. Not snowing here either.

Posted December 21st at 1:02 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

should be seeing the snow coming to an abrupt end soon in east herkimer! it goes from moderate snoe to nothing in 5 min.

Posted December 21st at 1:03 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Rob: what is the temp down there? My temp is 18 degrees.

Posted December 21st at 1:07 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

I dunt under stand how the weather channel has herkimer at 3 inches yet i just measured in many spots and got in between 6 and 7 inches..

Posted December 21st at 1:10 PM
RYan (Sauquoit):

Hey guys just took my measurement and ended up with 7.50 inches of snow out there.

Posted December 21st at 1:11 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

LOL i knw stevo its just did that

Posted December 21st at 1:12 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Well my official number is 6.5 in east herkimer, i cant speak for the weather channels totals.

Posted December 21st at 1:14 PM
Stacy (Stratford):

9 inches here and counting ! Is it ever going to stop? Hopefully the lake effect is minimal, to give us some time to clean out our driveways.

Posted December 21st at 1:26 PM
MJ (Little Falls):

Looks like the snow is finally starting to ease up…coming down in medium, soft flakes now. It was coming down pretty good for a while there with near white out conditions but much better now. Visability is getting much better.

Posted December 21st at 1:27 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Mike I bet that 3” total on TWC is yours from earlier. You seem to be the only spy in that area. They just haven‘t updated it yet. You can send in your totals to the NWS in Albany. I don‘t have an address for them though. Becky it‘s 25 degrees here. Nothing additional here since last time. Total snowfall here is 4.0”

Posted December 21st at 1:35 PM
Gordon (Northwestern):

As of 1 PM, I have gotten 6.6 inches of snow. I am in a spot where I get vitually no wind, which is nice when it comes to measuring snow. Also a big plus when it comes to removing the snow. In the 16+ years I have lived here I have never had to remove snow due to blowing or drifting. 20.4” on the ground.

Posted December 21st at 1:38 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

looks like we got some erie lake effect creepimg my way!

Posted December 21st at 1:38 PM
Matt (HP) :

Is anyone getting wind, The trees aren‘t even moving here

Posted December 21st at 1:52 PM
steve in cherry valley:

Just stopped snowing heavily here; had been steady for several hours. Now a light drizzle snow. Not much wind.

Posted December 21st at 1:53 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Heavy snow getting ready to move into southern Jefferson, Oswego, and Lewis

Posted December 21st at 1:54 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

There is a little wind up here. Been running SSW- SW 8-17 mph. ......Currently it is 13 mph

Posted December 21st at 1:58 PM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

I have had no wind yet all day today. (ps my wind gauge is frozen for anyone that checks on it on weather underground) But the trees has been still all day. Also the measurement at the house in Sherburne is 5.5” according to my wife. Is there a holdup with the wind Matt, or has something changed in the dynamics of the storm?

Posted December 21st at 1:58 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

The wind will be coming soon. The storm is just starting to blow up on the coast. Heavy snow in Foxboro MA for the game. Not a good day for AZ to come to town. Thank god there‘s no game in Buffalo!!

Posted December 21st at 2:04 PM
John (Ohio):

At 8” now for the storm total. Light snow currently.
(gotta move that AT&T banner, covers this entry if refreshing)
No wind.

Posted December 21st at 2:08 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Pulled this off the Buffalo site.

NIAGARA FALLS HVY SNOW Wind SW38G46 Pres 29.50F VSB 1/4
BUFFALO HVY SNOW Wind SW30G40 Pres 29.50S VSB 1/4
DUNKIRK SNOW Wind W29G40 Pres 29.58R VSB 1/2
ROCHESTER LGT SNOW wind SW18G35 pres 29.49F
PENN YAN MOSUNNY wind SW20G26

Posted December 21st at 2:09 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

7.00” inches here as of 2:15p.m. It is as calm as could be, not even a breeze.

Posted December 21st at 2:13 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

snowing light to moderately here now. This will start the lake totals! we got the nickle sized flakes flying too!

Posted December 21st at 2:18 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

wow very cellular lake effect! lol we got sunshine here now with another cell on the way!

Posted December 21st at 2:25 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

i love this! snowing moderately with big flakes and sunshine.

Posted December 21st at 2:27 PM
MG(Point Rock):

Wound up with 8.0 inches here. Now snowing lightly, with the sun trying to break through.

Posted December 21st at 2:40 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The LES should get better organised in a few hours once the sun sets.

Posted December 21st at 2:41 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

I‘m shocked the sun has been able to break through the clouds.

Around 4:00 I expect the LES to start going, the sun is basically out of the equation by then.

Posted December 21st at 2:48 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

We had very heavy snow from 6:00-11:00 AM; with lighter snow until around 2:30 PM. The sun is trying to break-out here. (I will pick this point to divide the storm from the LES event) I’m calling the Sunday storm #3 at 9.7 inches. (Now I just waiting for the Lake to fire up)

Posted December 21st at 2:50 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Stevo: Looks like your going to get a brief burst of moderate snow

Posted December 21st at 2:54 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Mike S: I agree. The sun made a 10 min appearance here…..now the snow has started to fall again…..Getting a few large snowflakes.

Posted December 21st at 2:57 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Sorry guys…I needed to nap there. 5.3” total for Utica, per Jill. Factoring the numbers together? 85% of our snow this season is from widespread system… 15% from lake effect…just a ridiculous disparity, even for here.

Posted December 21st at 3:22 PM
ALEX(LITTLE FALLS):

8.1 inches for the storm total 37 for the season total

Posted December 21st at 3:24 PM
cedarville:

when is the wind coming

Posted December 21st at 3:25 PM
Jan:

Moderate snow in Rome, big flakes.

Posted December 21st at 3:29 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Cedarville: Surface observations indicate the gusty winds are through the Finger Lakes…next up is Syracuse, then us. It‘s taking a bit. We‘re stuck between the pressure gradient to the west and the storm to the east. This will change this evening.

Posted December 21st at 3:45 PM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

Thanks for the updates gang. Lake effect is looking chopped up right now, but our band is beginning to organize up to the north. It looks like several more inches of snow will fall up there, with maybe a few snow showers for the rest of us. Main roads in New York Mills to Utica are in better shape than they were a few hours ago.

Posted December 21st at 3:51 PM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

By the way, our next event is going to be a rain maker! I guess it‘s bound to happen at some point…we don‘t live in the Arctic :)

Posted December 21st at 3:52 PM
DomTech (Oriskany):

Hi,
I think you snow lover have enough now, Please make it stop.

Posted December 21st at 3:57 PM
DomTech (Oriskany):

I Know today is the 1st day of winter—-Let it snow!!!

Posted December 21st at 3:59 PM
Matt (HP) :

Bill, are indications showing any sort of a back end snow on the next system?

Posted December 21st at 4:06 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

290 flow tomorrow should hit the thruway corridor. LES Advisory in effect for S. Oneida County from 6am to 9pm tomorrow.

Posted December 21st at 4:07 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

It looks like a strong trough will be moving in around the first week in January. So that should change the current pattern. So it looks like it will be mild after Christmas into the first 7 to 10 days of January. However, Looking at the EURO it looks like a strong negative NAO will be setting up in early January. This Orientation looks to last for awhile

Posted December 21st at 4:08 PM
Andy (Forestport):

We jsut recieved 4” in 1 hour, just an incredible burst of snow.

Posted December 21st at 4:18 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Picked up 4” over the day, bringing me to a storm total of 10.3”.

Posted December 21st at 4:22 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Wow Andy…that‘s pretty intense! Had several quick bursts of moderate snow here the last few hours. Maybe 1/2” here at best.

Posted December 21st at 4:23 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

WOW Andy!!! That is just amazing. These thin bands of snow are potent!

Posted December 21st at 4:24 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

bill are these snow bands on radar now coming off from lake erie? if these persist we are going to end up with some decent snow totals before the one off of ontario shifts through tomorrow

Posted December 21st at 4:26 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Andy: That‘s nuts! I know you love it though.

Posted December 21st at 4:28 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

like and said these bursts are droping 3-4” an hour! we have been in and out of them. its clear skys one minute,and snowing moderate to heavy the next with big flakes!

Posted December 21st at 4:29 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

NYZ007-008-220515-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-081222T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.LE.W.0018.000000T0000Z-081222T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
408 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. THIS
REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A
MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE TUG HILL REGION. THIS BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TUG HILL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THIS
BAND. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT BANDS...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG
HILL WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LAST THE LONGEST.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WHITEOUTS FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.
LEAVE PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. TAKE EXTRA
CLOTHING OR BLANKETS AND A SURVIVAL KIT TO HAVE ON HAND IN THE EVENT
THAT YOU BECOME STUCK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN
ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

Posted December 21st at 4:29 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

ill have a lake snow measurement shortly! looks like about 3 inches. but ill get an offical right now

Posted December 21st at 4:30 PM
Andy (Forestport):

Cars off the road everywhere, I don‘t even think it was an hour long, I looked at the radar and saw some reds near watertown, This burst was sort of like a heavy thunderstorm without the thunder but had the down pour.

Posted December 21st at 4:30 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

ok a little less lol about 2.3” of lake snow so far in Rome

Posted December 21st at 4:34 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

another burst on the way here,and utica looks to get one for awhile too!!!!

Posted December 21st at 4:40 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

big fluffy flakes ratios are high. this stuff piles up quick!!!

Posted December 21st at 4:42 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Judging by reports to our west, winds should pick up in earnest here soon.

Posted December 21st at 4:47 PM
Sarah:

I know this is not weather related, but….has anyone heard anything about the N Utica WalMArt being held up at gunpoint? On the weather side of things…..the sky is black outside my home in N Utica….snowing lightly.

Posted December 21st at 4:48 PM
sn(forestport):

We definatly got some snow – i‘d guess anywhere from a foot to a 18 inches between about 7am and 430pm. We just got shoveled out. Anyway does anyone know road conditions between Utica and here as my husband will be leaving work soon. Thanks.

Posted December 21st at 4:57 PM
Jim (Whitesboro):

Sarah,

My cousin was there shopping. Not held up. Police received a report that there was a man in the bathroom of the Walmart threatening to kill himself with a gun while he was on the phone with his wife. They could not find anyone though. Not sure how it all turned out, but she said they cleared out the place.

On to weather, I have been waiting to shovel because I wanted to give the village DPW ample time to plow me in. Nothing I hate more than when I shovel and then they come by with the plow, but they do a good job so i will not complain. Matt, are we expecting a lot more in and around Utica overnight?

For anyone, any ideas on the timing of the Christmas eve storm? start time, etc? I have to drive to Albany.

Posted December 21st at 4:58 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Winds are starting to pick up. 14- 24 currently there at19 mph out of the WNW.
Visibility is getting bad with the windblown snow.

Posted December 21st at 5:12 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Wind field is definitely here just had a gust of 28 mph.

Posted December 21st at 5:16 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

currently snowing moderately its been light to moderate for about an hour or so.

Posted December 21st at 5:18 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Stevo: its been like that up here too. Since 3:00 pm I‘ve picked up another 4 inches of snow. Winds are really starting to rock. I can hear it slamming into the side of the house.

Posted December 21st at 5:20 PM
Jodi (Grey):

I was supposed to go to Albany today to fly to Kansas. Left at 5:45 a.m. went on Rt. 169 from Norway towards little falls in my Honda. Hit a snow drift at 6:30 a.m. that was over a foot deep. I never saw wind blow like that. Stuck…for two hours! The tow truck got stuck. By the time I was rescued the drift was up to the window on my car. The tow people were great. Brought me to their house and gave me and my daughter breakfast, let me warm up and wait for help. My daughter and I made it home, and I am very thankful there are good people out there…and that I had cell phone service when I got stuck!

Posted December 21st at 5:24 PM
Frankfort (in Town):

Light snow flurries here now.

Posted December 21st at 5:33 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

buffalo is getting pounded hard with snow! that band is really organized!

Posted December 21st at 5:36 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

it also looks to be slowly moving south of the city too!!

Posted December 21st at 5:37 PM
Becky (West Leyden):
I check The station in Lowville their getting winds about the same as here. Are any other stations getting wind; or is just a Tughill event.
Posted December 21st at 5:43 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

should say I checked the station in Lowville

Posted December 21st at 5:44 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Beck y the wind is calm here. Just had a burst of snow and it was coming straight down. I don‘t know whats holding it up. It‘s pretty light out by Albany too.

Posted December 21st at 6:01 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Thanks Rob: Strange, I thought the wind field would have been in the area by now.Winds up here must be due to being east of the Lake and having a much higher elevation than the Valley.

Posted December 21st at 6:08 PM
MJ (Little Falls):

Lake effect snow still falling here. Is it suppose to fall up until 7 am Monday morning? Jody…You were VERY lucky that the tow truck guy was nice enough to rescue you…169 has been closed for some time all day due to drifts. Poland is getting socked as well, I‘m sure.

Posted December 21st at 6:30 PM
Amy (Salisbury):

We picked up 8.5 total for the storm. Has continiued to snow lightly off and on all afternoon. Are we going to get this wind too? Does anyone know the status of the roads that were closed earlier today?

Posted December 21st at 6:58 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Amy: The winds are suppose to be here sometime. .... Winds will be for everybody

Posted December 21st at 7:08 PM
Frankfort:

Wind is picking up here. That was a mighty strong gust of wind that hit the house here in town.

Posted December 21st at 7:11 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Alright folks…regarding snow totals…if you can keep separate storm and LES totals, that‘s great…if not, that‘s fine too. I think I have a rather accurate list separating both for now. So if you can, post final STORM totals (Snow through 2-3 PM) and start keeping track of LES. Appears the storm dropped an average 4-8”, with a few higher and lower amounts….highest as expected N & E.

Posted December 21st at 7:15 PM
Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

Officially here 6.5 inches from todays storm, for the season 37.5

Posted December 21st at 7:17 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt: My storm total was 9.7 inches. I have picked up 4-5 inches since then….. I will get a measurement at 9:00 PM

Posted December 21st at 7:22 PM
Amy (Salisbury):

8.5” for the storm. Just trace amounts since then, off and on light snow.

Thanks Becky. Do you guys think they will still be posting wind and wind chill advisories? I know there was talk of that this morning but I don‘t see anything yet?

Posted December 21st at 7:42 PM
Richard:

Driving from North Carolina tomorrow AM and expect to be in NYS by 3:00PM. I am wondering what I might expect as I approach the Norwich,
Sherburne, and Utica areas on my way to Clinton.

Posted December 21st at 7:45 PM
Driving Too:

from south carolina on tuesday afternoon, reaching utica early wed. morning. what does the next storm look like for me in PA and up 12 south?

Posted December 21st at 7:49 PM
Jim (Whitesboro):

Richard,

the others can probably give you a better answer, however, there is a lake effect snow advisory for the Utica area all day tommorow, although I would think that coming up from the south you would be o.k. You may want to consider taking route 8 as an alternative to 12 coming up from the southern tier. I imagine the farther away you are from the lake the better off you will be and it does not take much longer than 12.

Posted December 21st at 7:54 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

3.5” lake effect so far matt. storm total i already post. just 5” here.

51.6” season total so far

Posted December 21st at 8:08 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

sorry 51.1” so far for the season

Posted December 21st at 8:09 PM
Richard:

Thanks, i kind of thought about that. Sounds like we shouldn‘t expect too much until Norwich, Sherburne area. Forecast for Pa. is partly cloudy with winds to 30 or so, at least no snow.

Posted December 21st at 8:11 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Richard: I would be cautious and make sure you‘re driving in daylight. There will be snow and blowing snow around. I would definitely take 8 opposed to 12, as it could be windy enough to shut 12 down south of New Hartford. There will also be heavy lake snow immediately south of the Mohawk Valley that you might hit once you get north of about New Berlin…the heavier lake snow tomorrow will be further south in the viewing area, not north like usual.

Posted December 21st at 8:18 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Driving: Check back with us tomorrow, as we will be able to focus more on that than we all can now.

Posted December 21st at 8:18 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

5.1 inch storm total and .6 inch lake effect total. Picked up .6 in 20 minutes.

Posted December 21st at 8:26 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Stevo – I plow a lot of driveways in rome and u did not get 3” of lake effect. Been out all afternoon.

Posted December 21st at 8:29 PM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Matt,

Picked up 6.1” here in N.Marcy from the storm…. getting ready for the LES band to move it‘s way down this way!!

Posted December 21st at 8:31 PM
Larry - from Military Road Salisbury:

I have some clearing of skies here and the wind is variable WNW < --- > NNE @ 8 – 17 mph (G-23).
Temperature is 16 degrees.

Total snowfall measured at this location for today thus far is S – 7.0”. Total snowfall measured at this location for the past two days (2 events) is S – 16”.

Total snow measured at this location for this season is S – 46.1”.

Posted December 21st at 8:44 PM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Matt,

I find it interesting the BGM has decided to go with a LES warning for onondaga county and not oneida and madison…. any suggestions as to why?

Posted December 21st at 8:50 PM
randy Vitullo :

Six . five inches in Holland Patent (by the high school). Still no wind here. I opted not to groom trails after skiing this morning because the wind forecast (by every weather media possible) was death by being blown across a snow covered field. Still waiting for that wind. It may be blowing at 10 mph, but that is about it. The isobar maps show that it should be blowing at at least 20 to 25 mph. Not yet.

Posted December 21st at 9:16 PM
Darrin - Indian Lake:

INDIAN LAKE: 10.5 INCHES FROM STORM

WAITING ON LAKE EFFECT

DARRIN

Posted December 21st at 9:20 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Winds are not too strong up here either. Not much more than 10 MPH or so. Another cold night with a temperature of 9 and a wind chill of -2.

Posted December 21st at 9:21 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Anthony: Proximity to the lake = higher snowfall intensity. Band may not stay well organized as far inland as Oneida/Madison due to shear. That‘s my feeling, but I am not sure for certain.

Posted December 21st at 9:29 PM
Art (Oriskany Falls):

Matt
I am making the total for ROUND #3 5.5 inches.
After it stopped snowing at 1:00 PM the temperature went up to 35* here. I didn‘t know enough to stay home and we went to Syracuse to get my nephew‘s car out of the parking lot. Those cars in there were burried.
Art‘s tip of the day. Make sure you know the license plate # if you figure the cars will be burried.
The plate # will make things easier, especially if it isn‘t your own car. Blowing and drifting snow on RT 26 South coming from Vernon. Right now the wind is hollowing outside. My barometer is still on the low side and going lower instead of higher. The temp. is 14* I don‘t know what the wind chill is but it‘s bad.

Posted December 21st at 10:05 PM
jim (whitesboro):

The wind has arrived around here at least. I haven‘t heard wind like this since thunderstorms over the summer. Wouldn‘t want to be outside right now.

Posted December 21st at 10:12 PM
Brick Tamland:

Matt, are you doing a new entry tonight?

Posted December 21st at 10:16 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

Also very windy here.

Posted December 21st at 10:17 PM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

The winds are aweful here on the hill. Our anemometer is reading sustained 15-25mph with gusts to 40mph. Blowing and drifting snow all over the place. Time to grab another cup of coffee…the 3rd quarter of the football game isn‘t even over year.

Posted December 21st at 10:19 PM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

New entry up.

Posted December 21st at 10:37 PM
Matt (HP) :

I hear ya Bill, Im watching the game. Carolina Fan here!

Winds are sustained around 10 here. Ive had gust around 20. I‘m protected by the woods. If my anemometer was another 50 ft up. Who knows!

Posted December 21st at 10:39 PM
Jim (whitesboro):

23:

I am going to go out on a limb and say that all schools in Utica will be closed tommorow, and the next day, and the next day….................

Posted December 21st at 10:40 PM
wyld_addict:

Kids in Utica are off until Jan 5th. Thank GOD with all this snow and storm number 4 -5 – 6 …

Posted December 21st at 11:50 PM
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Posted May 24th at 3:01 AM

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