Weather Blog | Round #2

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Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for Oneida, Otsego, Madison, Chenango, southern Herkimer, Fulton and Montgomery Counties for Friday. Winter Weather Advisories are posted elsewhere. The second in our series of storms rocketing eastward across the country will fortunately be an all snow event this time. Our snowfall map is to the right; click to enlarge it.

Start Time: 7-10 AM. Our computer models are hinting at it starting around 10 AM, which typically is too slow. So we feel that range works.

End Time: 7-10 PM. Snow showers will likely linger after 10 PM, but the significant accumulating snow will be confined in that 12 hour window we've outlined.

Worst Time: 12-5 PM. It may start sooner in spots or later in others.

This storm isn't so much a major, massive snowstorm, as it is a potent little monster. This will have a ton of upper level energy to work with. It will be very wound up and it will be funnelling in moisture off the Atlantic and coming from a train of moisture that currently stretches from southern New Jersey, through Missouri and into the Tropical Pacific. We're going to tap two areas of jet stream energy and be in the favorable area of both of them for significant precipitation.

Storm Highlights

- Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour are possible after 12 PM.

- Thunder is possible in the heaviest bands

- Roadway conditions will likely go from slippery to dangerous over a short time tomorrow afternoon.

- The evening rush hour will likely be nothing short of a disaster, especially in and south of the Mohawk Valley.

- No lake effect is expected behind this system.

Again, the short duration but heavy snowfall of this system will be the problem. I did an analysis of what the models were spitting out in terms of total precipitation. I then used an average 12:1 ratio (though that may even be too low) of snow to liquid....in other words, 1" liquid = 12" snow. Here's what I got and why we drew the map the way we did. This was based off the 18Z NAM (a wetter model) and the 12Z GFS (a drier model):

Old Forge: 5.5" - 11"
Utica: 8" - 11"
Richfield Springs: 8.5" - 14"
Oneonta: 10" - 12"

Based on experience and what we're seeing, we opted to throw the ranges out that we did. Incidentally, our Microcast model is spitting out 7" for Utica, 12" for Cooperstown and Oneonta and 6" for Old Forge and Boonville.

This will be a very "good" storm for winter lovers...all snow and a pretty good fluff factor...though nothing as extreme as lake effect. And this should also ensure a White Christmas for all of CNY.

Storms #3 and #4

Just a quick update here on the others....

Storm #3: Mostly/all snow...perhaps some sleet south. Timing looks to be Midnight Saturday night-Noon Sunday. Moderate snow accumulation likely, but total precipitation looks less than Friday's storm, so snow amounts likely would be lower. Also, some dry slotting potential in this system could limit or cut down accumulations.

Bitter cold Arctic air and lake effect snow will drop in behind that storm. Some locally significant lake effect is possible Monday morning in spots. Highs on Monday, *may*, may struggle to get to 10 degrees in spots. We're looking at some pretty nasty Arctic air right now.

Storm #4: Toss up between all snow and snow/sleet mix...very questionable this far out. Timing looks to be right around Midnight Tuesday night to Noon on Christmas Eve. Another shot of cold and lake effect will follow this storm, possibly preceded by a weak clipper for Christmas Day that could provide some light snow to the region.Temperatures at some point either Thursday or Friday may not get out of the mid-teens again.

Plenty of winter, so I don't want to hear any complaining from anyone!!! ;)

Also, just a reminder again: The Weather team is not responsible for school closing updates, so we will not answer any questions on that. The most relevant information will be on NewsChannel 2 or on wktv.com. If you want to discuss closings among each other, feel free, but we will only be answering weather or storm related questions. Also, if you have any questions regarding how much snow you will receive, check the map and cross check it with where you are . If you live on the border of the bands, expect to receive somewhere along the average of both. And remember, these are ranges...that doesn't mean you will get 12"...it means as little as 8" or as much as 12". I will have a map update at 11 if necessary.

Couple Odds and Ends

Thanks to Tony in Westmoreland for sharing this PC Mike story with me about how you can setup your own backyard weather station like so many others in CNY have. Check it out if you're into that.

Also, it should be known that the Weather Channel has a clear and present pro-weather bias.

Enjoy!

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Comments

Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

Holy Snow!!!!!!! i can‘t wait! this sounds like a good one!

Posted December 18th at 7:21 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

oh and correction for my mathematical brainfart lol Rome has had 32.1” inches of snow so far this season!

Posted December 18th at 7:21 PM
Kenny-ilion :

nice

Posted December 18th at 7:28 PM
Matt (HP) :

I just commented last night that a weak clipper would be perfect for christmas day. I might get my wish.

Posted December 18th at 7:46 PM
Matt (HP) :

Oh and even better I work from 12-5

Posted December 18th at 7:47 PM
Tim (Ilion):

Yay I have to be in to work tomorrow afternoon at 3… joy joy joy… and I have to go to work from 11p-7a sat night/sun morning… joy joy joy… and traveling on christmas eve in the AM to fonda… joy joy joy… Reminds me of the song Slip Slidin Away…

Posted December 18th at 8:11 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Tim: That‘s ok…I‘ve had to alter plans this weekend, and I‘m already coming up with a backup plan for getting home for Christmas. Living in the Northeast is tough when you have to travel in winter.

Posted December 18th at 8:17 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Also, I added a quick odds and ends section at the bottom of the entry.

Posted December 18th at 8:27 PM
Paul (Utica):

I know the WKTV weather staff is not responsible for the information, but I find it interesting and commendable at the many school districts in Herkimer County that are already announcing early dismissals for tomorrow. It shows that they are truly concerned about the safety of their kids on the ride home,and they are considerate of the parents in giving them extra time to plan for the wee folk getting home 3 hours earlier than usual. Maybe other districts will follow suit. It‘s just a real shame that the storm will not show up earlier like it was originally forecast, then maybe the kiddies would get the whole day off!!

Posted December 18th at 8:27 PM
WINTER (Forestport):

Matt, this great blog gives everyone an idea of what to expect and to better prepare for it. You, Jill, Bill & Adam and everyone that writes in make it work. And it works very well.

Posted December 18th at 8:36 PM
Ryan S. (Sauquoit):

Hey Matt, are you still rating this storm as silver?
It looks like a gold to me, but what do i know :)

Posted December 18th at 8:57 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

Grass remains gone here so with this system we will be adding on. I have a feeling that many more schools will be added to that closing early list as or tommorow morning. Seasonal Total: 24.3 inches

Posted December 18th at 9:01 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

testing…

Posted December 18th at 9:02 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Winter: Thanks…we try! :)

Ryan: I believe Jill rated them. I‘ll leave that to her. ;)

Posted December 18th at 9:05 PM
kelly:

Matt, I have already registered for the weather alerts for my phone but I no longer get them is there any reasons why should I try again?

Posted December 18th at 9:08 PM
Nick :

Wow this storm sounds like a real bad one!!! All I know is if utica catholic schools arent closed or the dont let out early i am not going to send my kids in!!! I think its great that Herkimer County schools are being smart in letting kids out early!!! If this storm is going to be as bad as they say it is there is going to bed hell on the roads tomorrow!!! Please please please I urge everyone to drive carefully and I recomend that if your child goes to school some where that is expecting horrid weather and there school isnt closed pick them up from school tomorrow!!! Merry Christmas, Drive Safe, and God Bless.

Posted December 18th at 9:24 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Kelly: We don‘t send out text alerts for Winter Storm Warnings. We try and keep the text message alerts to mainly Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches/Warnings. We tend to avoid the winter warnings because they‘re longer in duration and a little more difficult to peg down exactly who to send them to (sometimes we have inconsistancies, there are different start and end times, etc.).

Posted December 18th at 9:25 PM
Ryan S. (Sauquoit):

Okay Matt sounds good :)

Posted December 18th at 9:26 PM
Valley Parent:

Schools should close tomorrow, either for a half or whole day. Why are superintendents saving snow days at this point? The forecast is ominous for the afternoon, and there is almost a 100% certainty of the storm—-no bust factor. Attendance is always poor the day before a vacation, too.

Posted December 18th at 9:33 PM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Valley Parent,

If they go a half day the district gets their funding as if they went for a whole day… the districts figure if they can get by without burning another snow day before even the start of winter they might as well … ya know

Posted December 18th at 9:36 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Pretty good stuff matt but to be honest i always thought the weather channel was just about weather LOL..

Posted December 18th at 9:37 PM
Barneytown:
Let it snow …Let it snow…Let it snow…great job WKTV team!!!!
Posted December 18th at 9:38 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Guys, I would prefer if we left the politics of school closings out of the weather blog. I understand there may be concerns on either side of the coin, but let‘s keep the hypotheticals and questioning for another blog/forum. If you want to discuss who is or isn‘t closed among one another, again, that‘s fine. It just diminishes from the weather angle of this blog. Thanks for playing along with us.

Posted December 18th at 9:42 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

Matt ,will there be any lake enhancement to the snow in spots? if so where?

Posted December 18th at 9:43 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Stevo: No…wind will be from the East or ESE all storm and behind it. The lake is not going to play a role here. Maybe in Rochester, but I haven‘t looked at that close enough to say.

Posted December 18th at 9:47 PM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Sorry Matt,

I agree…. this is supposed to be a tool for learning about weather both for the user and the weather team and it can at times get driven away from that…..

With how easily the weather changes around here in within a few miles it is great to get up to date weather from location to location… thank you again WKTV weather team for having such a great setup here for all of us to enjoy

Posted December 18th at 9:47 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

ok so probably in southern ontario canada or somewhere might see it then. thanks for the info

Posted December 18th at 9:56 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Anthony: No need to apologize…I‘ll lose this battle in the morning anyway haha. But I figure I should try now ;)

Posted December 18th at 9:59 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

this storm is moving fast! precip already making its way through southern ohio

Posted December 18th at 9:59 PM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Stevo,

Storm is moving to fast to grab the fetch of the lake…. going to be difficult to get the lake involved…. however… it is interesting to see a cold front pushing south from Canada…. I would imagine this will add lift to our system as they both approach C and N NY … I would not at all be surprised to see a deformation zone setup over the thruway corridor from say little falls back to between syracuse and rochester… if this happens i would expect VERY VERY intense snowfall rates (> than the 2” an hour that is being suggested at this time) .... that is my theory

Posted December 18th at 10:04 PM
Dave:
I do an afternoon paper run should I be driving on the roads..
Posted December 18th at 10:11 PM
Art (Oriskany Falls):

Matt Thanks for the reply to my E-mail. That last snow event (Tuesday morning) 2-1/2” of snow, then freezing rian) checked out with exactly 1/2 inch of water. :-) You know how I do it now. I‘m not exactly looking forward for tomorrow morning because my wife and I have to have our nephew to the Syracuse Airport around noon sometime. The temperature here is 27* right now and the barometer is just starting to drop just a little. Thanks Matt

Posted December 18th at 10:12 PM
Mike (N. Rome) (Rome):

Resisting the urge to post on whether or not schools should close before a storm…..

Anyway, thanks for that Onion piece Matt. Really lightens up the mood.

It‘s winter in central NY whether the calendar reads it or not. Get used to it folks! There‘s a bunch o’ months left of it.

Will be checking the blog all day tomorrow just to stay informed. No other place to stay as informed as the WKTV blog!!!!

Posted December 18th at 10:26 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Thank you, Art!

Anthony: Not sure where you‘re seeing a cold front? This storm will have enough lift on its own though to create 1-2”/hr. It‘s tough to get 3” or higher/hr in synoptic (widespread) storms here. I think the heaviest snow will be between Cooperstown-Cherry Valley-Little Falls-St. Johnsville.

Posted December 18th at 10:26 PM
Matt (HP) :

Matt, Funny thing, I saw that Onion piece before I saw it here. But just ironic that it was here as well

Posted December 18th at 10:30 PM
Tim (SalisburY):

Blog is wonderful ! Save for the Snow cheerleaders on here that frankly sound like childish babies who never had someone who was hurt or killed in an accident or dropped dead with a heart attack shoveling wet heavy concrete that frequently falls here instead of the light powder that falls out west. 8 months of winter around here! October – May. Is not enough for them!Then when Summer finally comes they want severe thunderstors & Rain! SHEESH! I also didnt know this was a just a Blog for Winter Snow lovers either. Lets just get the facts leave your cheerleading on another blog!

Posted December 18th at 10:45 PM
Tim(marcy):

Quick question matt. this storm is just wild… were all expected to get so much snow!!!. but like last storm in marcy and areas around here got 3 inches when it was expected to get 4 or more… could we get less or more this time?

Posted December 18th at 10:46 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

Temp holding at 30 degrees.

Posted December 18th at 10:47 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Hey Matt i was just wondering why it seem the temp is going up, Like 2 hrs ago it said 27.5 now it says 31

Posted December 18th at 10:51 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Tim: Of course that‘s a possibility. I‘m feeling confident that it will be very difficult for this storm to deposit under 6” in a worst case scenario (or best case, if that‘s your pleasure) in most areas south of Lake Delta. There may be some shifting of the bullseye area if the radar trends continue to want to keep this thing a little further north than modeled. But overall, not much change is anticipated.

Posted December 18th at 10:52 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Mike: Cloud cover. Some areas are low to mid 20s already. Others are near 30 or better. Temps will likely drop a few more degrees overnight (may not make the teens in all locations), but will also drop a little as the snow cools the air tomorrow afternoon.

Posted December 18th at 10:55 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

While i was waiting for the next model run…I was looking at the soundings and watching the storm on radar….the storm looks to be performing like clockwork..

Posted December 18th at 10:58 PM
Tim (marcy):

Ok Matt thanks.. is there any chance for the snow to come Earlyer or no?

Posted December 18th at 10:58 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Becky this storm is looking good. I think BUF will be issuing a warning for your area pretty soon.

Posted December 18th at 11:05 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Rob: I agree. The storm is very healthily…. The tops are building nicely.

Tim: Matt‘s timeline looks to be right on.

Posted December 18th at 11:10 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Both NAM and GFS models came in wetter than their earlier counterparts, and also a bit further north. I am shifting the 8-12” zone a little further north, based on both radar presentation and model data. One word of caution…this system is moving so fast, it will likely be difficult to see a widespread 10-14” verify, but I am growing more confident in a more widespread 8-12” event. Either way, it‘ll be a decent little event!

Tim: It could, but as it is, we‘re already 3 hours faster than the models are saying…this close in they rarely perform much worse than that.

Tim:

Posted December 18th at 11:11 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

This storm is a MONSTER

Posted December 18th at 11:20 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt; it looks like a 10 to 15 mile shift.

Posted December 18th at 11:21 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Updated Snow Forecast Totals

I shifted the 8-12” zone about 10 miles further north…that was the only change.

Posted December 18th at 11:26 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Hitting the hay here…lots to come tomorrow…rest up!

Posted December 19th at 12:10 AM
Erin (NH):

...testing..

Wow it went up… are we sure this will hold to a all snow or randomly get hit with sleet or freezing rain?

Hopefully it‘s just the other snow, the wet, and heavy.

Posted December 19th at 1:01 AM
Josh (little Falls):

Nice, hope everything through next week verifies!

Posted December 19th at 1:03 AM
Erin (NH) :

Oopsie, that is suppose to be the other snow… not the wet and heavy.. that is hard to shovel.

Posted December 19th at 1:04 AM
Josh:

Why does the blog let me post some times and other times it wants me to sign up with an account tand when i fill out the info for the account it never sends me an e-mail for the verification??

Posted December 19th at 1:05 AM
Matt S. (Deerfield):

This is gonna blow, I have to got o work at 2pm tomorrow, right during the worst part of the storm.

Posted December 19th at 1:12 AM
Mike W (herkimer):

Its def gonna be all snow for this event, looks like the snow /rain line will be some where near NYC.. Im just worried about the high in canada it could nudge the storm a little more south leading to less precip..

Posted December 19th at 1:36 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

One thing I‘ve got to say, the models for the most part worked well together for the first time in quite a while. The GFS had a few hiccups However, It preformed better than it has in a while. On the other hand the NAM and The EURO handled the storm very well.

Posted December 19th at 1:37 AM
Mike W (herkimer):

The GFS last run came very warm..

Posted December 19th at 1:38 AM
Mike W (herkimer):

MOREworry for down south then here..

Posted December 19th at 1:39 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Mike W: That is certainly possible. small variations are common when two systems are this close to each other…...The storm could shift north or south a bit.

Posted December 19th at 1:42 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

The GFS has been going warmer with a lot of these storms likely. The 850s have had small errors.

Posted December 19th at 1:45 AM
Mike W (herkimer):

Its really wierd this close to a storm still not really knowing what is gonna happen.. I seen snow totals from 3-6 to as much as 8-14. NO 1 has the same forecast..

Posted December 19th at 1:55 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

it‘s hard to forecast. when you look at the models you have to see how they are different…..and how to blend the models into something that makes sense. A lot of people just forecast from the models. however, something that is just as important is personal experience. you have to look at past storms…..and know the local environment and how it effects things.

Posted December 19th at 2:03 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

It looks like BUF will be keeping Lewis at an advisory….Maybe they will raise us to a warning in the morning.

Thats it for me…..Night all

Posted December 19th at 2:25 AM
Erin (NH) :

Ah good I hope an all snow event.

Anyway, do anyone know of any good radars to check this storm out?

Posted December 19th at 3:07 AM
Erin (NH):

Eh, it sounds bad.

Bill: what causes thunder during snow fall?

Posted December 19th at 4:51 AM
WINTER (Forestport):

No snow yet. 14 degrees.

Posted December 19th at 5:22 AM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

Erin,

The short answer to that: convection, or rising air. It‘s the same way thunder happens in the summer…just in the winter time.

Posted December 19th at 5:27 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

It is really going to be something this afternoon. I can‘t wait to see this snowfall rate. With almost all models and forecasters agreeing with the 1-2” per hour and thunder and lightning involvement possible, it is going to look a bit like like our Xmas or Valentines day storm. Too bad its only going to last for 6-8 hours!!!

Posted December 19th at 7:11 AM
Trista B. (Richfield Springs):

To anyone that can answer this,

Do u remember Valentines day a couple years ago, when we got a lot of snow in such a short period of time, Well is this storm going to be like that one, and be basically impossible to keep up with plowing and snowblowing? I know you have us down for 10 to 14 inches, not saying that i want more, but do u think we could get more out of this. And honestly, what is going on with all these back to back storms, rather they be snow or a mix? Im not complaining, cause i really want to start snowmobiling, but wow it really does a number on people traveling home before the holidays and so forth. Well everyone have fun today, and be careful. Ill keep ya posted with what happens down here. Take care..

Ps. Stevo, I hope you are very happy with all this snow that is coming>

Posted December 19th at 7:27 AM
Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

HAHAHA Like The Onion video Matt!

Posted December 19th at 7:45 AM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

Trista,

10-14” is probably the max we‘ll get out of this one. The reasoning is that this storm is going to haul through. That‘s not to say that some random hilltop will check in with more, but that would be an exception rather than the rule.

Posted December 19th at 7:51 AM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

Now now…for the record this isn‘t going to put out totals anywhere near the valentines day or christmas storm. Yes similar to the heavy snow, but not anywhere near as long.

Posted December 19th at 7:57 AM
Holly - Cedarville Lake:

Ok, I sound like a broken record, but can anyone give me more detail about Sunday‘s storm? I am headed South for a family Christmas – is it suppose to start on Saturday night now instead of Sunday morning? Any info would be greatly appreciated.

Posted December 19th at 8:19 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Holly: That question should be answered for you above. We‘ll get another update tonight, but it looks like a Midnight-Noon Sunday event…more details in the entry above under the Storms #3-4 heading.

Posted December 19th at 8:53 AM
Mike W (herkimer):

Im just happy this is a day storm and i can actually follow it without staying up all night.. I hope the next storm holds off to sunday morning..

Posted December 19th at 9:12 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Don‘t take my comment wrong crew, I realize it is not those storms, not my intention to make you think that. I was talking snowfall rates, not duration. It is not snowing here yet but you definately get the feeling of impending snow when you are outside. I had to go get about 5 stacks of wood for the fire this weekend and the air definately has the feeling of impending storminess!!

Posted December 19th at 9:19 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Any snow yet down across Chenango and Otsego Counties?

Posted December 19th at 9:37 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

If I look real hard I might wish a flurry out there :)!!!! Not yet, the dew is killing us, that really needs to come up some

Posted December 19th at 9:40 AM
jake:

utica will prob just get a dusting

Posted December 19th at 9:48 AM
Dan:

Zero snowfall in Sidney, NY as of now.

Posted December 19th at 9:50 AM
Trista B. (Richfield Springs):

Hey matt, There isn‘t anything falling right now, I will let youk now when that happens.

Posted December 19th at 9:51 AM
Mary:

Josh: I had the same problem registering for the blog. I think the problem was uploading the picture at the same time I registered. When I did this, I‘d never get the confirmation email. Soooo…I registered without the picture, immediately got the confirmation email, THEN added the picture. Give that a shot.

Posted December 19th at 9:52 AM
Kenny (South utica):

based on radar looks like snow in the finger lakes as of now…I would be we are snowing by noon, then the heavy snow moves in from lets say 2 to 6 pm or so…..afternoon drive is looking really bad, should be fun to watch this unfold, would really love to see some thundersnow!!

Posted December 19th at 9:56 AM
Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

Looks like nothing in Westmo so far.

Posted December 19th at 9:58 AM
Brad (Oneonta):

Matt: Radar says there should be snow here, but not a flake. Temp is 27 and a E wind. Perfect snow temps.

Posted December 19th at 9:59 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Alright…we have “virga” falling…it‘s snowing a few thousand feet up, but at the ground it‘s too dry yet. It‘ll take a short while, but we‘ll be in snow by 10:30-11 I suppose. Models seemed to nail the timing for once. Reports from WNY are interesting…it won‘t take long for it to snow heavily

Posted December 19th at 10:01 AM
Kenny (South utica):

Matt…..can you elaborate on the reports from wny are interesting….also when do you think the heaviest snow will fall….hoping i can catch a window of time around noon to get my paycheck…lol.

Posted December 19th at 10:02 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Milwaukee has been getting crusehed. Snowfall rates of 3”/hr.

Posted December 19th at 10:05 AM
Pat (Smyrna):

Just starting to snow now 10:00 hoping for a good thumping.Big snowmobiling family!

Posted December 19th at 10:05 AM
Mike M(binghamton):

just starting to snow lightly here, visibilites dropping rapidly though, around 2.5 miles here now. ill keep you guys updated, this should be a good one!!

Posted December 19th at 10:12 AM
nearpass (Seneca Falls-northern Finger Lakes):

Been snowing right along here for about an hour. Very fine, though, may 3/4 inch so far.

Posted December 19th at 10:14 AM
cvlh:

No snow in the village of Cherry Valley yet.

Posted December 19th at 10:18 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

The storm is actually right where the models said it would be this time. So the snowfall accumulation predictions are still on

Posted December 19th at 10:18 AM
GARY Paris Station):

Matt, I work in West Edmeston and as of 10:15 no snow here yet but the way it looks and feels outside it shouldn‘t be much longer. I will try to up date through the day. Hopefully its not going to be bad on the roads trying to get back to Sauquoit at 4:30.

Posted December 19th at 10:18 AM
Art (Oriskany Falls):

I guess it‘s the Calm before the Storm here
Our temperature here is 22* and my barometer has finnaly made up it‘s mind to drop just a little bit.
After checking out the blog I am going to check out the radar. I like Accu Weather Radar. Accu Weather uses the Radar at Griffiss AFB

Posted December 19th at 10:21 AM
Johnny (New Hartford):

not a flake falling from the sky now…the calm before the storm.

Posted December 19th at 10:21 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Rob: There is a lot of thundersnow in Michigan

Posted December 19th at 10:22 AM
Kim:

Hi!! thanks for all the great updates!! Its 1025am no snow in morris Otsego cty yet!!!

Posted December 19th at 10:26 AM
Jodi (Ilion):

Hope I don‘t get in trouble for this but when I read Matt‘s post #87, at first I thought he wrote, ‘we have “viagra” falling’.. gave me a chuckle=)

Posted December 19th at 10:26 AM
Truthsayer:

Ok jodi … glad i wasnt the only one who read that twice …... lol … was wondering if that meant a stiff snow …. Anyways … ill be leaving for home at noon … hope you all get home safe will start giving updates once i get home .. got my snow measuring spot all ready..

Posted December 19th at 10:29 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Kenny: 2”-3” and heavy snow out there (Buffalo area). Thundersnow/sleet was reported at Chicago earlier, and as we heard…t‘snow in Michigan as well. Should be a busy afternoon.

Posted December 19th at 10:31 AM
Linnette:

Flurries starting here on the hill in Waterville. Let it snow.

Posted December 19th at 10:32 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Heavy snow in Buffalo & NF as of 10:00 observation

Posted December 19th at 10:32 AM
Ryan (Sauquoit):

Well we got the day off today, just starting to snow now hope it picks up in intensity :)

Posted December 19th at 10:35 AM
Kenny (South utica):

thanks matt….definately a active afternoon ahead…hopefully I can get my paycheck and hit the store quick before the worst of the storm is here….any updates on when he heaviest will fall.

Posted December 19th at 10:38 AM
mike m(binghamton):

snow has become moderate here, and should become very heavy shortly, as some heavy snow is working toward binghamton according to the radar

Posted December 19th at 10:41 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Just seeing the first flakes here.

Posted December 19th at 10:44 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

snow started here about 10 minutes ago, starting to slowly intensify. The flakes are small right now.

Posted December 19th at 10:45 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Kenny: Sorry…ignored that part by accident. Snow is going to go from flurries to moderate quickly. Conditions should go rapidly downhill after 12-1. You should be able to get your check.

Posted December 19th at 10:49 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Elmira went from 8 mi visibility to 3/4 mi quickly… Ithaca is down to 1/4 mile.

Posted December 19th at 10:50 AM
GARY (Paris Station):

10:45 in West Edmeston and fine snow is starting to fall. Wind is also picking up a bit also.

Posted December 19th at 10:50 AM
Working in Utica:

I keep running to the window to see if it is snowing…nothing yet! CAN‘T WAIT!!

Posted December 19th at 10:52 AM
Kenny (South utica):

thanks matt, Thats the answer I was hoping for, lol. Its amazing how fast the reports show the snow intensifying, I think alot of people are going to be shocked by how quick this even unfolds….and the naysayers who never belive the forecasts will be wishing they had.

Posted December 19th at 10:52 AM
Jack Dolgeville:

Matt, I have this sneaky suspicion that the storm will lull in the Dolgeville/salisbury valley just long enough to give us 12-15” the last couple of storm seem to “sit here” a tad longer. Im just glad it wont be 41” again. But, over the next 5 days these storms shoud give us close to 20-24”. Your thoughts??

Posted December 19th at 10:53 AM
Randy (Norwich):

Snow is beginning here…in the past 5 minutes went from tiny flakes to larger and higher a rate falling…

Posted December 19th at 10:53 AM
Barbara (Laurens - Rt 205):

Just got our first flakes… !

Posted December 19th at 10:54 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Jack: I wouldn‘t throw out amounts for the next system yet (It actually doesn‘t look all that impressive on this morning‘s models). But, I do think the max for this system may be from Cherry Valley-Dolgeville. For whatever reason, SE Herkimer, E Otsego and W Montgomery/Fulton do very well in most synoptic (widespread) snows…there‘s either the terrain interaction there or there‘s just a climatological bias toward heavier banding. It‘s actually an interesting possible case study.

Posted December 19th at 10:56 AM
Mike W (herkimer):

Just started here in Herkimer

Posted December 19th at 11:00 AM
Holly - Cedarville Lake:

Just spoke to my dad in Ithaca,,,,coming down very hard for about 1/2 hour…........

Posted December 19th at 11:00 AM
Frankfort:

Just got back from Utica and Not a Flake was falling… Although, radar is looking pretty darn good!

Posted December 19th at 11:01 AM
Frankfort:

Now I‘m starting to see a few flakes in the air. Small tiny ones. Had to open the blinds more fully to watch for the snow! :)

Posted December 19th at 11:04 AM
Mike W (herkimer):

A place called Lake michgan is snowing 5 inches an hr according to the weather channel

Posted December 19th at 11:04 AM
Kenny-Ilion:

Snow is now falling here lightly

Posted December 19th at 11:04 AM
cvlh:

very light snow beginning in the village of Cherry Valley.

Posted December 19th at 11:04 AM
Jim (whitesboro):

Just talked to the UPS guy dropping something off at work, he said he just talked to his brother in Rochester and he said they are getting pounded.

Posted December 19th at 11:05 AM
Kenny (South utica):

very fine light snow has begun here in south utica, looks like the timeline matt gave is right on.

Posted December 19th at 11:05 AM
Working in Utica:

Very light snow falling.

Posted December 19th at 11:06 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

snow is definately ramping up here. Rate and size both have increased.

Posted December 19th at 11:06 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Snow has started to fall up here

Posted December 19th at 11:07 AM
Steven P (Town of Little Falls):

Just started snowing here. Elevation 850’

Posted December 19th at 11:07 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Visibility in Williamsport, PA is 0 now.

Posted December 19th at 11:07 AM
Brad (Oneonta):

My dear friend Mr Snow has made return visit. He told Mr Sleet to take a hike this time. Very light snow but the beginning of a long awaited snow storm.

Posted December 19th at 11:08 AM
Mike W (herkimer):

OK snowman let me see u do a better job

Posted December 19th at 11:08 AM
Matt T (HP):

Matt, This cant possibly be verifying can it. Reds in Jamestown?? Wouldnt that be almost 6 inches per/hr?

Posted December 19th at 11:12 AM
Mike W (herkimer):

Snow picked up quick, tiny flakes

Posted December 19th at 11:14 AM
Laura (working in Clinton):

Light now here. Sounds like when it comes in it will go downhill fast! Be safe everyone.

Posted December 19th at 11:15 AM
Virginia:

How are things in New Hartford at the moment? I still have family there and in South Utica — always worry about them driving in the winter.

Posted December 19th at 11:15 AM
Laura (working in Clinton):

Oops, that light snow here :)

Posted December 19th at 11:16 AM
Rich (Ohio):

The doppler radar says the snow is right top of me and its not snowin

Posted December 19th at 11:16 AM
Barb (LC):

OK…so the daughter is driving home from Rochester as we write. She says the Thruway is not bad…visibility for the most part is OK, at least by the Waterloo Outlet. I see nothing so far here. I hope she can stay ahead of it for the most part.

Posted December 19th at 11:16 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Matt T: That‘s freezing rain. The changeover line is a little further north than progged (a testament to how powerful this system is).

I still don‘t think we need to worry about Otsego County, but keep us posted on observations there through the event everyone!

Posted December 19th at 11:16 AM
Matt T(HP):

Matt, The way it looked as if it was the lake enhancing it.

Posted December 19th at 11:19 AM
Scott (Westmoreland):

Snow started here at 11:00 am on the nose. First a few flakes but it is picking up fast and already sticking to the road.

Posted December 19th at 11:20 AM
Linnette:

Snowing pretty heavy here now in Waterville. 23 degrees.

Posted December 19th at 11:21 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Matt: It does look impressive, but it‘s common for the strongest looking precipitation to actually be a rough guide for a snow/mix line.

As an aside, first flakes flying here in Deerfield.

Posted December 19th at 11:21 AM
New Hartford:

Im in New Hartford within eyeshot of 840 and it just went from nothing to a pretty good rate of falling/blowing snow.

Posted December 19th at 11:22 AM
ALEX(little falls):

just atarted snowing went from flurries to heavy snow in 1 min wind is wipin the snow around good

Posted December 19th at 11:23 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Flakes are coming down a little harder

Posted December 19th at 11:23 AM
WINTER (Forestport):

It just started to snow.

Posted December 19th at 11:26 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

We went from a couple flurries to a steady light snow in about a minute here. Crazy!

Posted December 19th at 11:26 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Estimates of 2”/hr rates in Buffalo now.

Posted December 19th at 11:30 AM
Mike W (herkimer):

Snowing very good now Visabilty 0.5-1 mile

Posted December 19th at 11:31 AM
Steve (RIT):

Can‘t wait to come home today! Really snowing in Rochester area.
http://rochesterhomepage.net/content/fulltext/?cid=54211

Posted December 19th at 11:32 AM
cvlh:

Heavy snow in the village of Cherry Valley. Road is covered.

Posted December 19th at 11:34 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

This is one of the fastest moving storms I‘ve seen in a while

Posted December 19th at 11:35 AM
Shon (East Winfield):

Fine snow coming down for the past 20+ minutes. Flakes are getting bigger and Route 20 is just covered. So far the travel looks okay, but not for long at the rate it‘s coming down! At least there is little wind at this point so visibility is not too bad yet. School buses are going by…

Posted December 19th at 11:36 AM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

Light snow on Smith Hill. It‘s going to pick up really quickly in the next few hours.

Posted December 19th at 11:40 AM
Steve in Cherry Valley:

Snow just started in Cherry Valley — fairly heavy and blowing. Getting foggy too.

Posted December 19th at 11:40 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Just went outside….snow is starting to come down at a fairly decent rate….the snow is starting to stick to the roadways.

Posted December 19th at 11:41 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Adirondack school system is letting the kids out.

Posted December 19th at 11:42 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

20.8 degrees here with light to moderate snow falling. Roads are getting coated.

Posted December 19th at 11:47 AM
Donna (In the Valley):

#161 LOL :)

They usually don‘t let out unless it‘s a blizzard!!! ACS Alumni

Posted December 19th at 11:49 AM
Matt H Mount Upton:

Heavy snow here now. very poor visibility conditions will deteriorate to very bad by noon

Posted December 19th at 11:49 AM
Working in Utica:

Looks like the wind is picking up out there, too. Moderate snow falling.

Posted December 19th at 11:49 AM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Reports from Buffalo are now 2-3”/hour with near zero visibility.

Posted December 19th at 11:49 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Donna. Thats for sure!

Posted December 19th at 11:51 AM
Kim from Morris:

been snowing pretty good here from about 1045am or so, roads are covered already and its 23 degrees out!! :)

Morris , otsego county

Posted December 19th at 11:52 AM
Jan (Rome):

Started light snow about 20 min ago, now a little bigger flakes and snowing moderately.

Posted December 19th at 11:52 AM
Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

Coming down at a pretty good clip at home, and light snow here in NH.

Becky, if you get a chance, email me. weather at cnyweather.com

thanks!

Posted December 19th at 11:56 AM
Jenn Little falls:

It has been snowing heavey for about 40 mins roads are covered. It is very windy out. its a very fine but heavy snow you can ctually hear it hitting the ground

Posted December 19th at 11:59 AM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Snowing moderately with winds about 12 MPH and gusts to 19 MPH. Temperature is 16 degrees. Roads are snow covered and hardly any traffic.

Posted December 19th at 12:00 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

I would advise against any and all travel this afternoon after 1-2 PM. Reports out of Buffalo indicate that where it‘s snowing more heavily, visibility is down to under a quarter mile. It‘s going to get real bad out there.

Posted December 19th at 12:00 PM
Frankfort (in town):

Snowing pretty good now – still small flakes and there is some wind.

Posted December 19th at 12:00 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Tony: I sent the e-mail….Outlook had a problem with the address. However, I think it went through.

Posted December 19th at 12:06 PM
John (Ohio):

Moderately snowing now

Posted December 19th at 12:09 PM
Working in Utica:

My work just announced that they are closing at 2:30PM. Hopefully other businesses will follow, as I am hearing a number of reports from our clients that it is extremely bad from Buffalo to Syracuse at this time.

Posted December 19th at 12:12 PM
Kim ( Morris Otsego Cty):

Matt:

Would you expected any power outages from this storm at all?

and thanks for keeping everyone updated. Great JOB!

Posted December 19th at 12:15 PM
New Hartford:

Re: #177 Can you have your employer call my employer? lol
Visability here is decreasing roads are starting to get slick.

Posted December 19th at 12:16 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

5.0” at Buffalo Airport.

Posted December 19th at 12:20 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

lol rob u beat me 2 it

Posted December 19th at 12:22 PM
Johnny (New Hartford):

what a difference 90 minutes makes…goes from no snow to all snow…visability looks to be less than a mile (just looking out my window at work). Town trucks are out salting the roads and the wind is blowing…..ewwwwwwwww here it comes

Posted December 19th at 12:22 PM
Susan (Marcy) :

I heard from my husband working in Rome that some Government Agencies in the Griffiss Park are closing at 1pm today. I am working in East Utica and the snow is coming down very steady here. I am surprised no snow emergencies have been posted yet. Is that because the snow is happening during the day and the snow emergencies usually request the cars off the roads at night?

Posted December 19th at 12:23 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

cloud to ground lightnng reported in Erie PA

Posted December 19th at 12:24 PM
Bob Jones (Ilion):

Anyone going to talk about that dry slot potentially reducing snow totals for the south? Or are we just going to pretend like it doesn‘t exist because it may not be good news for the snow lovers?

Posted December 19th at 12:25 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Matt: How strong will the winds get with this storm? Already averaging 14 MPH up here and visibility is dropping quickly. Just had a 19 MPW gust.

Posted December 19th at 12:27 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Laura: Buffalo gusted to 30+, so we could be talking about near-blizzard conditions at times later today.

Posted December 19th at 12:28 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Ugh, fingers don‘t work today, that‘s MPH.

Posted December 19th at 12:29 PM
renie ( working in Cooperstown) :

snowing heavily here since 11:00 am. with wind gusting about .

Posted December 19th at 12:43 PM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

lol, the dry slot that is not going to enter the viewing area there bob??? Binghamton MIGHT have to worry, but I doubt it comes much further north then that. Also with the snow fall rates that are starting to happen it will not do much to cut back on the inevitable. Moderate to occasionally heavy snow now here in Chenango, Roads are starting to become bad with the scanner becoming very busy. Good thing I am home from there today :)

Posted December 19th at 12:44 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

About 1 inch has fallen so far.. Looks like snowfall rates could be about an inch an hr.. Gonna be hard to measure, snow is blowing everywhere.

Posted December 19th at 12:45 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Looking at some of the DOT traffic cams i syracuse – they are getting pounded!

Posted December 19th at 12:47 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Actually, Jeff…I am a little concerned that this may be a bit of an issue to watch out for, south of Route 20. I‘m sure we‘ll see some of it fill in, but I would watch that closely.

Posted December 19th at 12:52 PM
Jack Dolgeville:

Snow Moderately heavy here in the centre of the village, strong gusts up to 25 mph. An inch has fallen since 1130 EDT. Visibiity about 3/4 mile. Traffic kind of heavy for town, not necessarily a day I would want to be tooling around in town. Already a buch on snowmobiliers on salisbury trails.

Posted December 19th at 12:52 PM
Beth:

According to the O-D website, the National Weather Service is expecting 4” of snow between 1-7pm and another inch from 7pm-1am for Utica? Did totals change??

Posted December 19th at 12:53 PM
Bill Kardas (Utica):

The forecast looks on track right now…no major changes to what we‘re thinking. Road conditions are getting pretty bad from what I hear. Should be an interesting ride home.

Posted December 19th at 12:53 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

1.00” inch here since 11:45a.m. Snow is falling at one inch per hour here.

Posted December 19th at 12:53 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Beth: We have nothing to do with what the O-D reports. Our forecast is outlined above and throughout the entry. Sticking to our guns.

Posted December 19th at 12:56 PM
Kenny (South utica):

Just got home from getting my check….and it is one word BAD the roads are terrible, visibility is at best a half mile, cars are sliding all over the place, if you dont have to go out I wouldnt…wifes work is letting them all leave at 6pm….although I think she would be better staying till 8 since the worst will be 2 to 6 time frame.

Posted December 19th at 12:57 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

snow is Moderately heavy here. The roads are snowcorver and slick. There are a few cars off the road. (people just won‘t slow down). We have around one inch on the ground.

Posted December 19th at 1:00 PM
Jack Dolgeville:

With the roads this bad, people should be let out on a staggered schedule from work. Unfortunately companies like Utica Naitonal and Met life make their employees feel guilty for leaving or even considering such a horrible thought.

Posted December 19th at 1:03 PM
olddoos (williamson):

too bad this thing is moving so fast looks like it‘s winding down in buffalo already

Posted December 19th at 1:05 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

Looks to me like there‘s about 1.5 inches but ill go out for an official measurement at 1:30. Roads are extremely treacherous, coming down moderately now.

Posted December 19th at 1:09 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

The weather channel has us at 5-8 today and 2-4 tonight..

Posted December 19th at 1:10 PM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

The wind has begun in earnest here. Now we have moderate wind driven snow. Just a hint over 2” at this point.

Posted December 19th at 1:11 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Not looking forward to my trip up good old Smith Hill, that‘s for sure!

Posted December 19th at 1:12 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Buffalo still reporting heavy snow and less than a quarter mile visibility at 1:00 observation.

Posted December 19th at 1:21 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

I just went out and mesured and came up with 2.1 inches. I could barely see 5 feet in front of me. There also drifts about 1/2 foot. Looks like real heavy band just to our south poised to come in. Maybe 2 inches per hr?

Posted December 19th at 1:21 PM
Jeff:

Matt,
Out towards Rochester-Buffalo radar does not look that impressive

Posted December 19th at 1:23 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt: WKTV should but in a Skilift for station personal :-)

Posted December 19th at 1:23 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

Is the storm breaking up out west? Sure looks it on radar.

Posted December 19th at 1:28 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

2.2 inches as of 1:30.

Posted December 19th at 1:36 PM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Looks like the storms precip is outrunning the energy. Storm might just be over in 3-4 hours…...

Posted December 19th at 1:38 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Def not looking good,we better hope for 2-3 inches per hr the next few.

Posted December 19th at 1:41 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Buffalo 9 inches

Posted December 19th at 1:42 PM
Jeff:

Just spoke o on of our suppliers out in Amherst, New York still snowing very hard out that way

Posted December 19th at 1:42 PM
Art (Oriskany Falls):

I just went out and measured the snow and I got
2.5 inches.
The barometric pressure has fallen quite a bit now since this morning.

Posted December 19th at 1:44 PM
Art (Oriskany Falls):

How often am I suppose to measure this stuff to get a good measurment???
Anyone

Posted December 19th at 1:45 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Art, every six hours

Posted December 19th at 1:49 PM
Holley (West Winfield):

Heard a rumble of thunder while shoveling.

Posted December 19th at 1:53 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

I hope it starts filling in a litle or is it just wishfull thinking lol

Posted December 19th at 1:53 PM
Truthsayer - oneida:

well the fine snow is getting a bit larger now … not usre how much we got cause the wind is blowing out here at times making blizzard like …. so il check it later :) kids are home im home …we cool …hope everyone is safe… oh the roads… lol WHAT ROADS .... we have paths … where roads use to be saw 2 snow plows drive by the house but didint have blades down ???

Posted December 19th at 1:56 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

its snowing as hard as it has all day..

Posted December 19th at 1:58 PM
JAck Dolgeville:

Snow still moderate, however wind has eased up in village. 3 new inches of powder, and I agree with the others, the radar is not promising.

Posted December 19th at 2:00 PM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Amazing snow rate at this time. Visibility is down to about 1000’. Just came in from measuring we are at 4” now and there are larger drifts in the driveway and near the cars where its starting to pile up. Cleared the snow off the picnic table and will check in about an hour to see what the rate is.

Posted December 19th at 2:00 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Heavy snow has developed here. Visability is 1/4 mile. 2.5” of snow has fallen.

Posted December 19th at 2:01 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

HEAVY snow here, road is closed due to water main break so obviously it hasn‘t been plowed.

Posted December 19th at 2:05 PM
Matt(marcy):

cleared a path in the snow, went in for 30 mins and already had an inch there. Wow

Posted December 19th at 2:05 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Snowfall intensity has diminished up here. waiting to see if the stuff over Syracuse gets up this way.

Posted December 19th at 2:05 PM
Jeff:

Spoke to another supplier Gorbel Inc. out in Fishers, NY near Rochester snowing @ the rate of 2”?hr. He said they have about a foot so far

Posted December 19th at 2:08 PM
Truthsayer Oneida:

Um yea just looked at radar looks like this thing is going to be over WAY before anyone thought …. that dry side is coming in fast … im not an expert on this stuff … but is this moving even faster that you thought wktv weather team ??

Posted December 19th at 2:10 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Looks like NE Pennsylvania is getting a lot of ice.

Posted December 19th at 2:11 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

We‘ve gotten over 4” here. Just measured on the front doorstep, underneath the overhang. It‘s let up quite a bit up here. Visibility was down to 1/4 mile for a bit, and roads are terrible.

And, fwiw, seeming people just have to talk about closings and the politics involved, I created a thread for people to discuss it in.

Posted December 19th at 2:14 PM
Tom(marcy):

storm seems to be breaking up out west… so im with you truthsayer i agree its coming fasttttttttt.

Posted December 19th at 2:14 PM
Jim (Whitesboro):

It seems like this storm tracked a little farther North than originally thought? No?

Posted December 19th at 2:14 PM
New Hartford mom:

On Higby Hill in NH it lloks like the snow is letting up in intensity but we have had several good wind gusts.

Posted December 19th at 2:16 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Got 1.9 inches in an hr, now up to 4 inches. Snow is alot more fluffy

Posted December 19th at 2:20 PM
Truthsayer - Oneida..:

yea tom it let a bit here … sometimes i have seen those dry slots fill right back in when your not looking and slap ya … but as of now yea the dry edge is coming way fast ….Hey miks S good idea with that thread …. you know what we be the best if we all could have a chatroom Now that would be awesome …

Posted December 19th at 2:21 PM
Al:

Just drove from Rome to Whitesboro and 49 was a blast. 1/4 mile or less visibility and no signs of any plows or salt trucks. Try and stay in the grooves and have fun

Posted December 19th at 2:22 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

I think the NAM was onto something yesterday when it decided to rush north. The model would be trusted much more if it had come up with this before the model run right before the storm.

Posted December 19th at 2:23 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Snowing as heavy as it has all day day here – visib < 1/4 mile

Posted December 19th at 2:28 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

1.2 here in the past hour, 3.4 for the sorm. Light snow now.

Posted December 19th at 2:31 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Dry slot is going to be a factor for many folks south of I-90. The precipitation is pivoting right now. That may cut down on snow totals south of I-90. Snow may briefly lighten up around 3:30-4 in the Mohawk Valley before recommencing after an hour or so. I would lean toward the low end of our forecasted totals as of right now. I will wait to see if this fills in…there is a bit of a south push to the back end that may limit the “damage.”

Posted December 19th at 2:35 PM
Gary (Schuyler at work in Syracuse):

Waiting for the dry slot here before heading home to Schuyler.

Posted December 19th at 2:35 PM
Matt(marcy):

Matt, it looked as if the slot would hit north of the thruway but the storm seems to have flattened out and is moving east with the dry slot to the south of the thruway now

Posted December 19th at 2:39 PM
sn (forestport):

snowing and blowing up here since about 1130am. we have about 2 1/2 to 3 inches – hard to measure with all the wind. Take it easy on the roads if you have to go out. As of right now RTE 12 from Utica to Alder Creek was snow covered but deerfield hill was horrible. I‘ll check back later – be careful if you have to travel.

Posted December 19th at 2:41 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

I have to admit, this thing definitely went WAY further north than models had anything even remotely showing. The trend was there yesterday, but it became established too late for us to do anything other than continue extending the 8-12” area further north. As the dry slot (or low) pushes through, that is when we could also see some thunder…it looks very convective in nature out there.

That aside, the roads are a mess right now. They aren‘t the worst I‘ve seen them, but they are definitely bad, so extreme caution is urged if you have to be out.

Posted December 19th at 2:45 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Thanks Matt makes me feel a little better about this storm. ILL take 8 inches, right now about lil more then half way there.

Posted December 19th at 2:45 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Were getting a moderate snow. Winds have been 12 to 20 mph up here.; they are blowing the snow around quite a bit.

Posted December 19th at 2:49 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Visability under 1/4 mile here. Flake sized has increased quite a bit.

Posted December 19th at 2:50 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

If possible I‘d like to get a 6 hour barrage of snow totals from folks. I am looking for measurements between now and 3:30 and again tonight between 8:45 and 9:30. If you can, try to take 10 measurements in an open, flat space in your backyard and average them together.

Approximate updated totals between 3:30 and 8:30 PM will also be appreciated.

Thanks a million!

Posted December 19th at 2:55 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):
about 4.5 inches here in rome so far. wind is swirling all around and blowing drifts. hard to messure. but thats the average i got from 6 different spots.
Posted December 19th at 2:57 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

I have 4.0” here.

Posted December 19th at 3:01 PM
Frankfort (In Town):

The only people out on the roads now are the DPW Plows, Police, Tow-Trucks AND Santa Elves UPS Drivers. Just got my packages.

Mixture of big & small flakes. Haven‘t been out to measure yet.

Posted December 19th at 3:02 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

3.50” inches of snow here as of 3p.m. Temperature is 18.5 degrees.

Posted December 19th at 3:02 PM
John (Ohio):

3.5” here in central Herkimer county so far

Posted December 19th at 3:06 PM
LOL:

OMFG, GET A JOB!!!

Posted December 19th at 3:08 PM
Amy (Salisbury):

3.5 inches in 3.5 hours. Not bad!

Posted December 19th at 3:09 PM
GARY(Paris Station):

still snowing hard in West Edmeston. Took a measurement and we have received 7.3 inches in the village. Any one that has traveled on RT8 around Bridgewater I would like to know the road conditions.

Posted December 19th at 3:09 PM
Kenny (South utica):

4.5 inches as of 3pm here in south utica, updated from my wife at work, they are now letting them out at 4:30 not sure if that is better than 6 or not….there are going to be a ton of accidents on the roads between 4 and 7 I would imagine.

Posted December 19th at 3:10 PM
Truthsayer - Oneida:

You got it matt ill try to give ya totals out here ….Question right at ya matt …is this storm moving faster than you thought …along with the winds ? or we just about on track ?

Posted December 19th at 3:12 PM
Bailey (west winfield:

3.5” in Wes Winfield (right on rt 20) 18 degrees

Posted December 19th at 3:12 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Matt – went out at 3:00 and averaged 4.5”

Posted December 19th at 3:14 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

4 3/4 inches here in Herkimer

Posted December 19th at 3:20 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

4.2 inches so far. Light snow currently.

Posted December 19th at 3:23 PM
weatherjan:

Oneida, NY: 5.5” as of 3:15 PM. Received 1” in approx. 15 min. (2:35-2:50 PM)

Posted December 19th at 3:27 PM
Adam Musyt:

4.4” and counting as of shortly before 3:30PM in Rome…

Posted December 19th at 3:29 PM
Ryan (sauquoit):

About 5 inches and counting in Sauquoit.

Posted December 19th at 3:31 PM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

6.5 ” here at home. Picked up 2” from 3-4pm. Still snowing moderately here with some nasty wind gusts.

Posted December 19th at 3:37 PM
Shon (East Winfield):

#259 Haven‘t been on Rt. 8 today, thank goodness, but Rt. 20 is covered. Sometimes there is a world of difference between Bridgewater and us. Looks like the plows were through, but it‘s hard to tell with the wind blowing! The wind was blowing hard earlier. I imagine there are drifts and white outs in the usual places on Rt. 8! The visibility is a bit better than before, probably more than 1/4 mi. now…

Posted December 19th at 3:42 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

looks like the lakes are responding back over th UP of Michigan,and Wisconsin. Maybe a sign of things to come?

Posted December 19th at 3:44 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

Not quite 5.25” here ill say 5.2” so far and counting

Posted December 19th at 3:45 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Stevo: Lakes are not going to respond here with an east or northeast wind in place til Sunday night.

Posted December 19th at 3:46 PM
mike(leonardsville):

Matt, is any of that snow near Buffalo going to get to the southern valleys?

Posted December 19th at 3:52 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

darn! lol was hoping for more lol

Posted December 19th at 3:52 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Winter storm watch for sunday here

Posted December 19th at 3:54 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Actually for sat night into sun night

Posted December 19th at 3:58 PM
Matt(marcy):

matt I have just over 5 inches like 5.7 last time I checked and counting fast. We had a lull here in Marcy and it has since picked up fast

Posted December 19th at 4:00 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Mike: It‘s possible. It‘s showing a comma-head type formation which indicates possible very heavy snow rates on the back end just before the snow ends. We may from all to nothing later this evening.

Posted December 19th at 4:05 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

6” exactly now! snowing hard!!!!!! like 2.5”-3.0” an hour!!! according to the NWS Montague radar we are in a really heavy band. visibility is less than a football feild!

Posted December 19th at 4:14 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Picked up 4.2 inches of snow.

Posted December 19th at 4:15 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

ill get another measurement after this band pushes through.

Posted December 19th at 4:16 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

matt is the dry slot gonna fill in as this low gets closer to the coast? it looks like its filling in a bit now.

Posted December 19th at 4:22 PM
Steven P (Town of Little Falls):

Amy Salisbury,
Are you getting wind up your way? Also are you getting the fine small flakes? Reason I ask is because my parents do not live very far from you and I need to go there tommrow to clear their driveway. Just wondering what to expect. Thank you in advance

Posted December 19th at 4:24 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

It appears to be filling, but this may shut down by 7 PM now. Talk about a lightning fast mover!

Posted December 19th at 4:27 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Visibility is down to about 1/8 mi here..hardest I‘ve seen it snow in a long time.

Posted December 19th at 4:30 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

wow .45” of snow in 20 min. is that possible? lol almost 6.5” here and counting!

Posted December 19th at 4:32 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Matt whats the FLOW needed for LES in the mohawk, sry i forgot lol

Posted December 19th at 4:32 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Mike: WNW winds or flow about 285-290 degrees typically.

Posted December 19th at 4:32 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

tell me about it. hardest ive seen in almost 2 years! since Feb of 2007

Posted December 19th at 4:34 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

also depends on the width of the band

Posted December 19th at 4:35 PM
Gordon (Northwestern):

As of 4:30, I have got 5.1” of snow. That is the same amount I got from Wed. mornings storm. It is still snowing lightly, temp. 19.1, visibility 1 1/2 miles

Posted December 19th at 4:35 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

yeah gordon that band fizzled out a litle as it headed toward your way

Posted December 19th at 4:39 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

it started snowing here about 11:10 am. This storm moved pretty fast!

Posted December 19th at 4:41 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

light snow currently here now.

Posted December 19th at 4:42 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

The flakes were not very big with this storm either. Matt, im curious what causes the different sized flakes? i know your busy. so no need to answer right away. cause im sure there a number of reasons. lol

Posted December 19th at 4:47 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

Its been snowing pretty hard in far northern NY for a while now. i wonder what the totals up there in ogdensburg and messina?

Posted December 19th at 4:49 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Stevo: Temperature is what determines the size of the snowflakes.

The colder the temperature is the smaller the snowflakes will be. There will also be more of them and they will be drier.

Posted December 19th at 4:49 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Thanks Matt.. 6 inches here in Herkimer with moderate snow

Posted December 19th at 4:50 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Stevo: Also, the snow growth zone in this storm (where the snowflakes develop in the atmosphere) was around 15,000 feet. That is VERY high up, almost unusually so. That actually worked against us in this scenario and is probably the main driver in what will ultimately keep totals high, but under our total forecast. That‘s the culprit, if you‘re looking for one.

Posted December 19th at 4:51 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

massena sorry lol

Posted December 19th at 4:52 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville) :

Stevo, among other things temperature has alot to do with it. As a general rule, the colder it is the smaller the flakes. The warmer it is the bigger the flakes. There is more that goes into it than this, but i‘ll let Matt explain that.

Posted December 19th at 4:52 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

interesting. that would explain the giant snow flakes at 35 degrees. the ones that feel gross when they hit your face like someone spit on you lol

Posted December 19th at 4:55 PM
Frankfort (In Town):

3.5 inches so far in the town of Frankfort with lots of wind. The sky has a slight purpleist hue. Is that a sign of anything coming my way?

Posted December 19th at 4:58 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

6 Hour snowfall is 5.0” here.

Posted December 19th at 4:59 PM
Ryan (Sauquoit):

Hey guys we are getting walloped and its snowing very hard here. I just went out and checked we have picked up 8 inches and snowing hard now

Posted December 19th at 5:06 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

snowing moderate- Heavy again here i get another measurement in an hour or so. eating dinner lol

Posted December 19th at 5:11 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

matt, on radar what is that weird gap over the lake? its like a thin lull in the precip that streches almost the entire length of lake ontario

Posted December 19th at 5:15 PM
Kim (morris otsego cty):

Hey we got 7 inches or so, in morris. It‘s 20 degrees out and windy on and off, its still snowing lightly right now.

Posted December 19th at 5:15 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Frankfort: it is probably due to the scattering of high frequency wave lengths.

Posted December 19th at 5:16 PM
Amy (Salisbury):

Steven P… I have to say very little wind which is very unusual. Normally, I get major wind because of the location of my house I am in a wind tunnel. That is why I‘m curious about all the other wind reports, maybe it‘s still coming our way? We also have only picked up about 4.75 inches so not as bad as I expected. Again, maybe more is coming our way?

Posted December 19th at 5:20 PM
Scott (Westmoreland):

As of 5 pm, I measured an average of 6 inches in the yard.

Posted December 19th at 5:21 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

wow????? what the h*** does that mean? lol

Posted December 19th at 5:21 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

high frequency wave lenghts?

Posted December 19th at 5:22 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Stevo: Light is divided in to many high frequency wave lengths. Our eyes are sensitive to light which lies in a very small region of the electromagnetic spectrum labeled “visible light”. This “visible light” corresponds to a wavelength range of 400 – 700 nanometers (nm) and a color range of violet through red. The human eye is not capable of “seeing” radiation with wavelengths outside the visible spectrum. The visible colors from shortest to longest wavelength are: violet, blue, green, yellow, orange, and red. Ultraviolet radiation has a shorter wavelength than the visible violet light. Infrared radiation has a longer wavelength than visible red light. The white light is a mixture of the colors of the visible spectrum. Black is a total absence of light.

Posted December 19th at 5:26 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Measured eight inches in the areas protected from the wind. Cold 12 degrees with a wind chill of -4. Peak gust of 26 MPH in the last 20 minutes.

Posted December 19th at 5:30 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Stevo: I should have added its the scattering of the wave lengths that makes the sky blue.

Posted December 19th at 5:33 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

wow i like this blog. i learn something new every day. so im makeing my hypothosis. its the snowflakes reflecting the city lights in all different directions???

Posted December 19th at 5:36 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

snowing pretty hard here again. windy too!

Posted December 19th at 5:39 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Stevo: You got it. It also could have been the last bit light from the setting sun scatttering in the snow and cloudsl

Posted December 19th at 5:40 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

the watertown area is getting some crazy heavy snow currently according to radar!!!!!!!

Posted December 19th at 5:41 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

looks like it will be coming to an end here soon. the back edge seems to be close. i will take that measurement probably in a couple hours. its really brutal out there! ill wait till it calms down. lol

Posted December 19th at 5:44 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

i thought i heard a distant rumble of thunder about a 5 min ago. but was unsure if it was or not

Posted December 19th at 5:46 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Getting very hard snowfall at this time.

Posted December 19th at 5:47 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Thundersnow up there! Excellent.

Posted December 19th at 5:53 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt: There have been a few rumbles.

Posted December 19th at 5:59 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

that heavy band hitting watertown has absolutely nothing to do with the lake? thats crazy. i cant imagine how hard it must be snowing there right now. anybody have a link to a webcam there? cause its snowing pretty good here,and the radar aint showing yellows like it is up there!

Posted December 19th at 6:00 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Stevo: That band over Lake Ontario is probably lake effect snow. It may shift south tonight into the Rochester area or between Rochester and Buffalo. Rare, but cool setup. If the wind were more easterly, we could see some LES into Toronto.

Posted December 19th at 6:09 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

7.5” so far here in Rome. i will probably take a couple more measurements before i go to bed.currently snowing moderately.

Posted December 19th at 6:20 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

7 1/2 inches here, looks like wktv will be right on the mark with this storm.. Great job

Posted December 19th at 6:22 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Time for a dinner break. Once the snow stops, final totals would be appreciated. Again, try and do 10 measurements in a sheltered, flat, undisturbed area in your backyard and average them together. I will get a list online later tonight.

New entry later tonight regarding the Sunday storm as well.

Posted December 19th at 6:41 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

snow is letting up a bit. wind still going.currently snowing lightly

Posted December 19th at 6:49 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

10 measurments? ok been doing 6. should we do ten all the time as a rule?

Posted December 19th at 6:51 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

or just when it drifts?

Posted December 19th at 6:51 PM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Well up to 8” here and snowing heavy with thunder and what appeared to be lightning. It was the only thing I could think of since I live way off the highway and there were no cars around. Just came in from plowing out the driveway and hopefully this last band won‘t make too much of a disaster of my driveway!

Posted December 19th at 6:52 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Its still snowing moderate here, should start to lightin up soon

Posted December 19th at 6:52 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

drifting snow is nuts. very hard to get get an accurate measure in certain areas. like one in particular. there is this open field along seifert road here on the Rome/Verona town line where ive seen the field blown almost bare after a 6 inch snofall with 2 foot drifts in the road! crazy stuff! :o)

Posted December 19th at 6:56 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Still getting moderate snow here. Radar doesn‘t seem to be picking it up good. I‘ll have a total when it lets up.

Posted December 19th at 7:02 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The GFS model has trended colder For the Saturday / Sunday storm.

Posted December 19th at 7:24 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

Becky: Again, thinking little to no mixing here. Should be a decent storm, mainly NE of Utica.

Posted December 19th at 7:25 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

I‘m ready for more! I really like post #118 Matt. This is great!!!

Posted December 19th at 7:31 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

THE BIG TEN: lol First measurement 8.0”,Second 7.9”,Third 8.3” Fourth 7.5” Fifth 8.1” Sixth 8.0” Seventh 8.5” Eighth 7.9” Ninth 8.0” Tenth 8.3” Averaged for a Grand Total of
(8.5”) total For Rome!!!!
That Brings us to 40.1” Season total so far!

Posted December 19th at 7:31 PM
Scott (Westmoreland):

Actually, Steve, your measurements average out to 8.05” of snow, not 8.5”, but who am I to quibble. :)

Posted December 19th at 7:34 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

Currently Flurries with some blowing and drifting. i also have 2 more crazy measurements we have a 2.7 ’ snow drift along side the house,and my car has 1.0” on it lol

Posted December 19th at 7:35 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt: If the storm re-energizes, it should be a farily decent storm. I think the same places that saw snow today will see snow with this one. It looks like the southern Tug could see quite a bit of LES out it as well.

Posted December 19th at 7:38 PM
Patty (Village of Herkimer):

Village of Herkimer 7 3/4 inches as of 7:30
still snowing lightly

Posted December 19th at 7:40 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

yep your right lemme correct that lol forgot to divide it by 10 lol 8.05” storm total ,and season total was goofy too! lol

40.6” inches so far For Rome

Posted December 19th at 7:40 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

40.6” season total of course

Posted December 19th at 7:41 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

That should say …..fairly decent storm

Posted December 19th at 7:41 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Looks like thats about it for up here…........Snowing very lightly.

Posted December 19th at 7:44 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

you know what from now on ill do the math myself. this calculator on my cellphone is weird! lol

Posted December 19th at 7:45 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

like effect north of buffalo in niagara county,and into southern ontario coming off of lake ontario. now there is something you don‘t see too often! lol

Posted December 19th at 7:49 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

just some very fine very light snow here. to heavy to be considered a flurry,and not heavy enough to be considered light snow. lol

Posted December 19th at 7:52 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

the way its been snowing in watertown i wouldnt be suprised if they got over a foot!

Posted December 19th at 7:58 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

I got 8 1/2 inches 1 mile outside town, still snowing light.

Posted December 19th at 7:59 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

that was supposed to be our snow. but the storm went more north. They need to round up some dump trucks and start shipping iit to the rightful owners lol

Posted December 19th at 7:59 PM
cvlh:

We have 81/2” in Cherry Valley in the valley near Sprout Brook.

Posted December 19th at 8:01 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

I measured 7.0” here for a storm total. Flurries are still flying.

Posted December 19th at 8:03 PM
John (Ohio):

6” total all day as of 8pm. 2.5” since 3pm today.

Posted December 19th at 8:04 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Seasonal total here is up to 32.5” now.

Posted December 19th at 8:04 PM
Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):

(8.05”) storm total For Rome!!!!

That Brings us to 40.6” Season total so far!

Posted December 19th at 8:09 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

8.5” total for Utica is what we‘ll be putting in the books..record snow for the date… 4.5” (1996).

Posted December 19th at 8:09 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

seasonal snowfall right around 31 inches. We have got 21.5 since last friday. 10 fri 3 wed and 8 1/2 today. If it wasnt for that 1 warm day we would have pretty nice snowpack..

Posted December 19th at 8:18 PM
Ryan (Sauquoit):

Hey guys, i just measured and averaged out 9.50 inches of snow Woot :)

Posted December 19th at 8:23 PM
Mike W (herkimer):

Ure the high bidder so far lol

Posted December 19th at 8:28 PM
Matt Lanza (Utica):

New entry up guys…take all discussion there. Nice job on this one.

Posted December 19th at 8:34 PM
Frankfort (In Town):

Another 2 inches since 3:30pm. For a total of 5.5 inches for the day. It‘s still lightly snowing out.

Posted December 19th at 8:38 PM

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