Round 2 Monday?

Posted July 18th, 2010 by Jill Reale. 42 comments

 

First off, yesterday was quite a busy day in the Weather Department. Out ahead of a strong cold front, numerous thunderstorms developed across Central NY, especially across Central Oneida, Madison, Otsego and Herkimer Counties. There were around 20 warnings issued from 2PM until 1130PM, including 2 flash flood warnings. The flash flood warnings were brought on due to what we call “training”. Training is when an area receives heavy rain, usually along with a thunderstorm, over and over again. This occurred over Central Oneida County from around 6pm until 8pm. According to the SPC, there were 31 Storm Reports for NY State yesterday, including numerous hail and wind damage. One of the hardest hit areas was North Utica/Deerfield, where this picture was taken.
 
Potential for Round 2
 
 
While we had a quiet (and much deserved) sunny day today, the weather is once again going to change. All eyes are on a surface low across the Great Lakes today. This storm system has a history of producing damaging winds, hail and even some tornadic activity across the Northern Plains. Today, severe weather across Michigan wasn’t too impressive, with some reports of wind damage across Southern Michigan. By tomorrow morning, the warm front is going to push through the area, setting off some showers and a few rumbles of thunder. Because this warm front is moving through the morning hours, we will see some extensive cloud cover from it. The cloud cover will hinder the threat for severe weather in the morning/early afternoon because it will not allow the atmosphere to warm up significantly. In addition, precipitation out ahead of the cold front could rob us from the energy of the atmosphere. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) looks to be around 1500-1800 j/kg, which is sufficient enough for strong to severe thunderstorms. But if we see enough precipitation out ahead of the front, we may lose some of the energy. The forecasted Hodograph on the NAM looks fairly good with a long hook, indicating maybe some supercells. As of right now, I think the best chance for severe weather will be to the EAST of us. Both timing and cloud cover will be at our disadvantage tomorrow. If the front slows down or if we see some sun, then we have a slight chance but that chance is very low right now.

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  1. fairfield:

    when you say that the severe weather will be to the east of us…..do you mean east of utica or east of the viewing area?

    Posted July 18th at 7:58 PM

  2. Jill Reale (Utica):

    East of the viewing area

    Posted July 18th at 8:02 PM

  3. joe:

    i am going to be in Bronx NY for the Yankee game Tuesday night July 20 is there a good website to check the weather please reply.

    Posted July 18th at 8:55 PM

  4. Steve:

    @ Joe: www.wcbstv.com/weather

    Posted July 18th at 9:27 PM

  5. joe:

    ok thanks.

    Posted July 18th at 9:33 PM

  6. Becky (West Leyden):

    Tomorrow sure does look like a loaded gun setup. Jill, wouldn’t the EML also help in inhibiting convective instability until it gets closer to Albany? It’s going to be a close call on a hit or miss.

    Posted July 18th at 11:07 PM

  7. Becky (West Leyden):

    looks like an MCS is trying to get going in southern Ontario

    Posted July 19th at 12:11 AM

  8. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Doesn’t look like much going on so far. Lots of clouds too. We’re just SE of the low track which is a favorable spot. 6Z GFS blows things up in a few hours. Hopefully it’s not overdoing things.

    Posted July 19th at 8:20 AM

  9. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Benn getting some sunshine the last half hour. Up to 75/65 right now.

    Posted July 19th at 9:29 AM

  10. fairfield:

    sunny here too 75/70

    Posted July 19th at 9:53 AM

  11. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like the front is just coming into Rochester. So we got several hours to destabilze. Up to 79/67 here now.

    Posted July 19th at 10:10 AM

  12. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like some showers are developing. This will probably zap our storm chances. Shear looks pretty weak as well. Made it up to 81…it’s 79 now.

    Posted July 19th at 11:27 AM

  13. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The setup for today isn’t great today for strong storms…but if we can get enough instability we could see a few ‘pulsers’ this afternoon.

    Posted July 19th at 11:34 AM

  14. fairfield:

    how great a chance do we have for rain?

    Posted July 19th at 11:39 AM

  15. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Rain is likely today (>60%) for most areas in Central New York.

    Posted July 19th at 11:41 AM

  16. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Popup, nonsevere thunderstorms are forming right now. Looks like it will be an active afternoon.

    Posted July 19th at 11:43 AM

  17. jessie (ilion):

    well its 78/66 here right now we have cloud cover not really much sun today but i guess thats ok

    Posted July 19th at 11:44 AM

  18. joe:

    bill, is there any other good website to check the weather for Bronx NY since i will be in Bronx NY tomorrow night for the Yankee game.

    Posted July 19th at 12:33 PM

  19. fairfield:

    what factors do i need to have for precip again? temp and dewpoint are 76/75

    Posted July 19th at 12:35 PM

  20. jessie :

    now that we just got a good down pour the temps have jumped from 78/66 to 82/67 thought it would cool us down but i guess not will we cool down at all today

    Posted July 19th at 12:54 PM

  21. Rob (Whitesboro):

    CAPE is pushing 2000 now in some areas.
    Big storm heading into S. Chenango. 82/70 here. Dews have really come up since this morning.

    Posted July 19th at 2:41 PM

  22. jessie:

    ok so the temps have fallen its was 82/67 now its 78/69 temps have gone down but dews have gone up does that mean nasty weather or what i see some nice storms on the radar you think they are going to make it into us here in ilion

    Posted July 19th at 2:44 PM

  23. JmD (Fonda):

    @Rob(Wboro):
    what site do you use to get the CAPE? (I had it bookmarked last year, but changed out browsers and it didn’t get transferred….) Thanks, in advance!

    Posted July 19th at 3:12 PM

  24. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I use the RUC from the SPC for parameters JMD. Twisterdata.com is also a good site.

    Posted July 19th at 3:20 PM

  25. JmD (Fonda):

    Thanks…saved them both! Twisterdata.com is interesting site…never been there before

    Posted July 19th at 3:37 PM

  26. Becky (West Leyden):

    You can use BUFKIt also

    Posted July 19th at 3:54 PM

  27. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Strong thunderstorm moving through Southern Oneida County now with perhaps some small hail

    Posted July 19th at 4:12 PM

  28. fairfield:

    hey, it’s been boaring here all day, are we gonna seen any action…..could use more rain too

    Posted July 19th at 4:24 PM

  29. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Beside the lone storm in Southern Herkimer County, I think we are pretty much done for the day.

    I found an amazing video of a shelf cloud in Michigan from the 18th.

    http://www.benholcomb.com/Chase-Accounts/20100718?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+bholcomb+%28Ben+Holcomb%27s+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

    Posted July 19th at 4:37 PM

  30. Becky (West Leyden):

    Jill, that’s astounding, I didn’t see evidence of too much wind. But, somebody must of see some very strong winds.

    Posted July 19th at 5:03 PM

  31. fairfield:

    anything possible to pop up this evening or overnight?

    Posted July 19th at 5:39 PM

  32. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Fairfield

    Nope, front is moving through now, so expect quiet conditons tonight

    Posted July 19th at 5:48 PM

  33. joe:

    Jill, i am going to be in Bronx NY tomorrow night for the Yankee game is there a good website to check the weather for Bronx NY.

    Posted July 19th at 6:21 PM

  34. Jill Reale (Utica):

    weather.gov

    Posted July 19th at 6:49 PM

  35. joe:

    ok thanks.

    Posted July 19th at 6:59 PM

  36. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like there is a strong tropical wave down by Puerto Rico. The 12z models have this coming into Miami as a weak hurricane by Saturday.

    Posted July 20th at 11:41 AM

  37. Rob (Whitesboro):

    3000 CAPE on the GFS for tomorrow. Also sufficient wind shear for severe storms. SPC just upgraded us to 30% risk.

    Posted July 20th at 1:37 PM

  38. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Tornado Warning for Baltimore. Crazy couple of days down there!

    Posted July 20th at 5:27 PM

  39. Becky (West Leyden):

    Rob, It will be interesting to see if wide spread severe develops, Right now I’m leaning toward scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which could become strong to severe. (with wind and Hail being the main threat) From my seat It’s going to be a close call. If we see some convection in the late morning from what’s left of the warm front over western NY; It might be enough to keep things under control. on the other hand, if we see a line form west of Syracuse we could be in trouble. That said, the High CAPE and shear values will give the ML shortwave a lot to work with. One more thing of note about this year, I’ve noticed on more than occasion that the RUC overestimates CAPE, compared to observed soundings. And since the SPC Mesoanalysis uses, amongst other sources, RUC forecast data any errors in the 1hr RUC forecast are likely to show up in the SPC mesoanalysis as well.

    Posted July 20th at 6:28 PM

  40. JmD (Fonda):

    Becky: I tend to agree with your take on things….in fact, with the poor track record this spring-summer by the SPC for the WHOLE country, not just CNY, I’ll be paying attention to you and Rob for the forecast! Just seems to me, they(SPC) change the daily Con Outlooks way more than they used to…and I’ll try to educate myself in order to make my own conclusions. Thanks for all your input! Just my $.02

    Posted July 20th at 7:14 PM

  41. fairfield:

    how soon tomorrow morning are we to expect storms to start…..would like to keep my windows open again tonight

    Posted July 20th at 7:50 PM

  42. Becky (West Leyden):

    jmD, I agree on the SPC, don’t get me wrong, the SPC does great work. however, they’ve had big problems with their forecast this year.

    fairfield, I woundn’t be too worried about rain during the overnight.

    Posted July 20th at 8:10 PM

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