Reality Check

Posted January 25th, 2010 by Adam Musyt. 62 comments

After our warm, wet and wild spell of weather today (49 degrees today at Griffiss Airfield in Rome and 1.17" of rain, a new record rainfall for January 25th) , things will trend back to typical late January weather here in CNY over the next couple of days.  Our cold front is now at the Atlantic Coast and pushing eastward.  Cooler, but not terribly cold air, is filtering into the area on west-southwesterly winds.  Just some scattered light snow showers and flurries are expected through Tuesday morning across CNY.  Lake effect is going to be tough to come by initially as the air mass isn't really all that cold by late January standards.  In fact, 850 mb temperatures are only going to slowly fall to about -8 or -9 degrees during the daylight hours of our Tuesday. We need it to get a little bit colder than that for lake snows to crank up.

 

The cold air advection will continue throughout our Tuesday and by Tuesday evening those 850 mb temperatures will be sufficiently cold enough (around minus 11 degrees) to support lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario.  Wind alignment will be such that the lake effect will be primarily on a 260 degree flow, or west-southwesterly, at least initially.  This wind orientation will favor the Tug Hill region to see the most persistent snow for Tuesday evening.  As a result, the National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch for Oswego, Lewis and Jefferson Counties through Wednesday.  At this point it appears that up to a foot of snow is possible in the highest terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau, with lesser amounts in the lower elevations.

 

Tuesday Night and Wednesday the winds are forecast to veer to more of a 270-280 degree flow.  As a result, there are some indications that the lake effect will slip a bit southward into Northern Oneida County, especially along and north of a line from Camden to Remsen with some accumulation possible.  We'll have a better idea on numbers as we head through our Tuesday here on the blog.  At his time it appears that most of this lake effect will miss the Mohawk Valley.  Later Wednesday the band will again be on the move back to the north as winds turn southwesterly again ahead of our next cold front that will likely bring a brief burst of snow to much of CNY on Thursday before the icebox door swings open with high temperatures in the teens by the end of the week.

 

Bottom line:  It's still winter.  Our January thaw is over and a return to reality is in the cards for again for a while.

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  1. Adam Musyt:

    Lake Band Orientation based on wind direction

    Posted January 25th at 11:37 PM

  2. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I forgot to mention my snowfall total today because of the storm( not like it changed much). Seasonal total is 42.6” here. That looks like one heck of a snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. I hope it comes more up the coast.

    Posted January 25th at 11:43 PM

  3. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Rob: Yea it looks good for the folks in the mid-atlantic area…of course our luck it stays away!

    Posted January 26th at 12:02 AM

  4. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    Adam,
    Will the snow band ever make it down here? If so how much snow are we talking about?

    Posted January 26th at 6:00 AM

  5. Rob:

    Do you think there is any significant snowfall in the near future? I’m a snowmobiler and i haven’t put on more than 200 miles this season and usually by now i’m pushing around 1000 miles. Thanks!

    Posted January 26th at 6:02 AM

  6. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Nick,

    The Ontario band won’t make it that far south…but you’ll see some snow today from instability snow showers moving in. Granted, it won’t be more than an inch or two but it is something.

    Rob,

    The lake snows will be the thing to watch over the next 24 hours. Up to a foot is possible up in the Tug. South of Rome, no significant snow is expected in the near future, until about the weekend.

    Over the weekend, a snowstorm will develop and pass along the MidAtlantic region. Our forecast models continue to advertise this storm passing south and “out to sea”. I’m not sold on that idea…yet. As with many a storm beyond 48 hours, there are no guarantees. This one definately needs to be watched, as any shift north would change the game here in Central New York. We’ll keep the official 7 day dry and cold for the weekend, but this is something we’ll be keeping a close eye on for the next few days.

    Posted January 26th at 6:37 AM

  7. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Light snow here on Smith Hill. Picked up a fluffy 1/2” so far.

    Posted January 26th at 7:58 AM

  8. Jan:

    Can’t even see across the street here in Rome!

    Posted January 26th at 8:06 AM

  9. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Special Weather Statement
    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    753 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2010

    NYZ009-036-037-261345-
    MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-
    753 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2010

    ...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ONEIDA AND NORTH CENTRAL MADISON
    COUNTIES...

    • AT 749 AM EST...A SNOW SQUALL WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF

    ONEIDA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS SNOW SQUALL WILL TRACK DIRECTLY
    ALONG THE NEW YORK THRUWAY...AND WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR SOME DIFFICULT
    TRAVEL THIS MORNING.

    THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITIES IN THE SQUALL TO LESS THAN A
    QUARTER OF A MILE. THE SNOW WILL FALL ONTO WARM ROAD SURFACES...WHICH
    WILL CAUSE IT TO QUICKLY MELT AND POSSIBLY RE-FREEZE. THIS COULD
    CREATE VERY ICY CONDITIONS IF THE ROAD SURFACE IS UNTREATED.

    • THIS SNOW SQUALL WILL BE NEAR...
    NEW LONDON...AND SHERRILL AT 755 AM… VERONA...AND VERONA MILLS AT 800 AM… ROME AT 810 AM… WESTMORELAND...AND KIRKLAND AT 815 AM… COLEMANS...AND CLARK MILLS AT 820 AM… ORISKANY...AND FLOYD AT 825 AM… STITTVILLE...AND MAYNARD AT 830 AM… HOLLAND PATENT AND DEERFIELD AT 835 AM…

    USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL INTO OR THROUGH THIS
    POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL. CONSIDER DELAYING TRAVEL UNTIL THE
    SQUALL PASSES YOUR LOCATION.

    Posted January 26th at 8:11 AM

  10. Comespring:

    Wow! We are definetey getting hammerd with snow just north of Utica, more than just a trace to an inch, like you forcasted.
    Just so you know!!!

    Posted January 26th at 8:20 AM

  11. Hey:

    you can’t forecast snowsqualls! Give them a break!

    Posted January 26th at 8:23 AM

  12. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    This band that’s moving through now formed off of Lake Erie, and therefore will not be with us all day today. Still, some places could pick a quick couple of inches this morning in Oneida County. You can find our snowfall map by clicking here

    Posted January 26th at 8:23 AM

  13. WINTER (Forestport):

    30°…snowing lightly…a little more than a dusting for accumulation…

    Posted January 26th at 8:33 AM

  14. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Squall line now starting to move into the city fo Utica/Marcy/Remsen/Clinton. This band will continue to push east through the morning and head towards the Mohawk Valley and Southern Herkimer County. Be careful if you’re driving to or in these areas. Snow squalls are known for poor visibility and quick accumulations. They are one of the more dangerous kinds of winter events.

    Posted January 26th at 8:39 AM

  15. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    1.5” so far here on Smith Hill. Road conditions are terrible here in Oneida County…multiple accidents on the scanners being heard from the news dept.

    Posted January 26th at 8:48 AM

  16. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Terrible on the way to work. Rt. 233 was 20mph. Was just about done once I got on Rt. 840. What a difference.

    Posted January 26th at 8:52 AM

  17. Andrew (Whitesboro):

    Real joy coming down Rt. 49 this morning between 8-8:45. 13 cars off the road; Floyd VFD was out. Thin layer of snow on top of ice between Rt. 291 and Floyd – got a little better closer to Rome.

    Posted January 26th at 9:03 AM

  18. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Thanks Andrew,

    All the salt and sand got washed away from the roads yesterday….that can’t help the situation.

    Posted January 26th at 9:11 AM

  19. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Thanks Tony too :)

    Posted January 26th at 9:11 AM

  20. fairfield:

    wow, glad to see the snow…can’t believe people forgot to slow down again, just like at the beginning…...but from about 8:30 to 8:50 (waiting for school bus) visibility went to about nothing

    Posted January 26th at 9:23 AM

  21. fairfield:

    i read from the last few blog entries about the creek letting loose in dolgeville…..anyone know about dolge ave, my aunt lives there and had to evacuate a few years ago during the july flood

    Posted January 26th at 9:31 AM

  22. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Fairfield, I am unable to access Dolge Ave. The Rt 29 bridge is still closed. From Van Buren Street, I could see the lights from a police car parked along the lower end of Dolge Ave. The creek on the lower end of Dolge Ave is jammed up solid. I don’t know if the ice has went across the road down there or not. The ice did back up onto North Main Street, Rt 29, and Dolge Ave in front of Automotive Rescue. I’m posting some pictures to YouNews right now.

    Posted January 26th at 9:42 AM

  23. fairfield:

    thanks michael

    Posted January 26th at 9:43 AM

  24. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    The Temp here is 34*
    It was snowing here and it has cleared and the Sun is out. I guess it’s that way around the whole area.

    Yesterday we had a high temp of 53*

    Posted January 26th at 9:51 AM

  25. fairfield:

    still moderate snow coming down, temp 28 high of 51 yesterday

    Posted January 26th at 9:55 AM

  26. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    Picked up an 1.25” of snow this morning. quickly it came and left. seasonal total 41.25 inches so far.. Maybe tacking on to that total later this week and weekend.. Flooding still occuring along mohawk river in oriskany and whiteboro flats. probably receed tomorrow or so.

    Posted January 26th at 10:17 AM

  27. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Picked up 2.46” of rain yesterday. That was one of the largest 24 Hr. rain fall I have had in a few years, and to think it came during January. Got 8/10” of snow this morning. Still snowing lightly at 10:15 AM. Temperature is at 30.4.

    Posted January 26th at 10:17 AM

  28. fairfield:

    saw you pics michael….unreal…..wish they could do something to keep the ice from jamming year after year after year…..the west canada doesn’t seem to have that problem very often

    Posted January 26th at 10:19 AM

  29. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Fairfield: There is very little that can be done. The East Canada Creek has a major problem with stream channel encroachment. They only thing I see that could be done is the use of explosives to blast the jam apart, but it can’t be done because nobody wants to hurt the fish, lol!
    The West Canada Creek usually doesn’t have many issues with ice jams because of the disharge of water from Hinckly that acts to break up any ice that forms therefore keeps the creek free of significant ice.

    Posted January 26th at 10:32 AM

  30. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Michael,

    Thanks for keeping us informed over the past few days. You’ve been a great help!

    Posted January 26th at 11:08 AM

  31. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Updated seasonal snowfall totals Next update will be Monday next week. I’ll send a reminder.

    Posted January 26th at 11:27 AM

  32. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Anytime Bill! I just wish I was awake when the ice went out so I could post, but I see Stacy in Stratford kept you guys posted last night. I will be headed over shortly to get some pics of the shear walls left behind along with any damage. This is the worst ice jam I have ever seen here and from what I am hearing we haven’t had anything this bad since 1975!

    Posted January 26th at 11:31 AM

  33. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Flood Warning
    FLOOD STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
    1149 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2010

    NYC043-065-270449-
    /O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-100128T0114Z/
    /UCAN6.1.ER.100126T1032Z.100127T0000Z.100127T1914Z.NO/
    1149 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2010

    THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA.

    • UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
    • AT 11 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 404.7 FEET.
    • FLOOD STAGE IS 403 FEET.
    • MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
    • THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 404.9 FEET BY 7
    PM TUESDAY. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER 2 PM WEDNESDAY.
    • IMPACT...AT 404 FEET...WATER OVERFLOWS ONTO THE WHARF AT THE
    UTICA CANAL TERMINAL. RIVER STREET IN ORISKANY IS ALSO FLOODED.

    Posted January 26th at 11:52 AM

  34. Stacy(Stratford):

    Michael, I wish I had a way to get ahold of you last night! When the ice broke loose up here, it made one heck of a noise and jarred our home. My first impression was thunder. My husband took the spot light out, shined it down at the creek and sure enough, she was raging. It was only a matter of maybe 10 minutes later, Dolgeville was called out to flooding.

    Posted January 26th at 12:06 PM

  35. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Be sure to check out Pat Bailey’s report on the ice jam in Dolgeville. He’s there right now for the noon show and will have a story at 5pm too. Mike…saw your pictures on YouNews. Wow! Can’t believe how large those ice chunks are! Wouldn’t want to get hit by one of those…

    Posted January 26th at 12:12 PM

  36. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Bill, Question for you. Where does the “official” Utica/Rome snow measurement come from. There’s nobody at Griffiss doing it is there?

    Posted January 26th at 12:17 PM

  37. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Picked up .5” this morning with the squall.

    Posted January 26th at 12:20 PM

  38. Steve (East side of Kyser Lake):

    Hi Michael, Just an update for all. Incredibly, I heard the loud boom that Stacy heard last night as I also thought it was just thunder. The lake here is still smooth and flat with no break up at all but much, much, thinner.
    I am still shaking my head about the genius who was riding a snowmobile down on the lake around 4 am last night. These guys must have death wishes or they need to be enrolled in a AA program. Amazing, just amazing, two get killed on the ingham mills bridge last night (I bet we’ll find that alcohol and speed was involved in that one) and then someone rides a snowmobile last night on the lake. What are these guys thinking??
    On the other hand, it is oppenheim and anyone who lives around here KNOWS exactly what I am talking about.
    Best to all, Steve

    Posted January 26th at 1:00 PM

  39. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Almost looks like the flow is turning 280/290 over Lake Ontario. Starting to see some snow develop across the area.

    Posted January 26th at 2:39 PM

  40. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Just submitted more pictures to YouNews. I got some really good ones this time so be sure to check them out! If anbody gets a chance, please come up here in person to see this. Its mind boggling when you see the amount of ice left behind.

    Posted January 26th at 4:03 PM

  41. Gary Utica:

    Michael,

    How do you access your pictures on YouNews? Thanks!

    Posted January 26th at 4:26 PM

  42. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Gary: Go to the top of this page and you will see in the blue area “YouNews”. Click on that and you will see pictures titled “Dolgeville Ice jam Flooding Aftermath”.
    OR follow these link:http://www.wktv.com/younews/82712367.html

    http://www.wktv.com/younews/82682532.html

    Posted January 26th at 4:40 PM

  43. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I was interested too in knowing where the official measurment is. Lanza told me awhile ago it was in Yorkville. That’s definitely strange why RME can’t make an official measuring spot. They always did when it was in Oriskany.

    Posted January 26th at 8:52 PM

  44. Gordon (Northwestern):

    RME airport will probably never be an official measuring spot, because no one lives at the airport, and they would have to pay about 5 people to give you 24 hr. 7 day a week coverage. The official airport weather observations taken each hour or when the visibility or ceiling changes by certain values, are done by a system called ASOS. Since this ASOS needs no one to take the observation, I doubt you will ever see a human being paid to take hourly observations as the airport. Trouble with the ASOS is it doesn’t measure rain or snow fall. In fact one warm early summer evening I saw the ASOS report snow, when it was actually a bunch of June bugs flying around the ASOS.

    Posted January 26th at 10:27 PM

  45. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Just want to point out that the danger of flooding still exists here. When the jam at the Rt. 29 bridge broke, it flowed downstream and has created another massive jam in the vicinity of the hydro plant between Van Buren Street and Dolge Ave. No flooding is occuring at this time, however water levels behind this jam are high and could pose a problem in the future.
    Also, I surveyed the Spruce Creek which feeds into the East Canada and there is quite a bit of ice and anchor ice that has yet to break free. Rumors are that there is more ice that hasn’t come down yet from Spruce lake, but I can’t confirm this.

    Posted January 26th at 11:25 PM

  46. Clifford (Garrattsville, Otsego):

    Hey guys, just letting you know that the story WKTV did on the ice jam was headline news last night on the Weather Channel. They showed the clip several times.

    Posted January 27th at 3:59 AM

  47. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Rob & Tony,

    To answer your question, we do not have the luxury of an observer to measure snowfall in Rome. Even if there was an observer measuring snow there, we couldn’t use those numbers because Rome typically gets 10-20% more snow than Utica (being that much closer to the lake). Remember, the ASOS (weather station) was moved from the Oriskany Airport to Rome a few years ago.

    Our snowfall records are for the City of Utica. In order to keep those records consistent as possible we decided to measure the snowfall at my house in Utica (elevation 475ft).

    The proper and offical way to measure snow is once every 6 hours (at most) during the event. Measure using a ruler on a flat surface (a “snow board”) in an area sheltered from the wind. Once the snow is measured, clear the board. If you don’t clear the board, your totals during a large event may be a bit lower due to settling of the snow.

    So long as you follow those rules you’ll get accurate and “professional” snowfall numbers :)

    Posted January 27th at 6:24 AM

  48. randy Vitullo :

    How much snow are we thinking for Thursday? It appears, yet again, the big storm goes out to sea on Friday / Saturday due to a cold high pressure located in the wrong place….....

    Posted January 27th at 6:30 AM

  49. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Randy,

    Tomorrow’s forecast is going to be a combination of lake effect snow and synoptic snow from a cold front. If the lakes weren’t involved, most areas would only pick up about 1”. With the lakes in the picture, there will be some localized accumuations of 2-4” or more…most likely closer to the lakes. It all depends on the wind and how well the bands hold together as they drop south.

    Posted January 27th at 6:38 AM

  50. fairfield:

    anyone have anymore info on dolge ave?

    Posted January 27th at 11:42 AM

  51. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    fairfield: no problems that i’ve heard of. I’ll be headed out later to check things out.

    Posted January 27th at 11:48 AM

  52. randy Vitullo :

    Thanks Bill. The ski trails in HP, remarkably, survived the onslaught of rain from Monday. They just need to be freshened up a bit; like say, about 3 or 4 inches. Do you think HP will fall into this? Skiing was ok last night, courtesy of the 1.5 inches of snow on Tuesday morning.

    Posted January 27th at 12:02 PM

  53. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Michael- Glad to hear that.

    Randy- I think that’s a fair bet. NAM spits out 0.25” of QPF...and it’s going to be a fluffy 0.25”. Figuring a 20:1 ratio would average about 5” of snow. This number is based on our computer models in Rome…here in Utica it will be less than that.

    Posted January 27th at 12:16 PM

  54. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The 12z BUFKIT keeps the snow ratios more like 15:1.

    Posted January 27th at 12:58 PM

  55. fairfield:

    ty Michael

    Posted January 27th at 1:08 PM

  56. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I wonder why BGM didn’t issue any headlines for Oneida. Between the front and LES, someone going to pick-up some decent snow around here.

    Posted January 27th at 4:15 PM

  57. Adam Musyt:

    Hey gang,

    Setup looks really good for a burst of heavy snow during the late morning and early afternoon tomorrow as the arctic cold front crosses the state.

    Here is a look at our snowfall forecast for tomorrow.

    I’ll have a new entry up later this evening.

    Posted January 27th at 5:30 PM

  58. Becky (West Leyden):

    The temp is 19. picked up 3.70 inches in the LES dept. Seasonal total is 96.525”.

    Posted January 27th at 6:56 PM

  59. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    Looks like the front and LES event could bring 3 to 6 inches.. Oneida County is out of LES watch which is in effect for Madison and Syracuse area.. Can’t rule out maybe short term LES advisory for Oneida if band stays around longer.. Any thoughts on this.. White out conditions briefly could be possible with frontal passage and squalls.. Be interesting to watch for sure.. any thoughts on this weekend coastal storm or is it going to be a total miss? I see winter weather watches posted in the southeast and carolina’s

    Posted January 27th at 9:47 PM

  60. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I think they’ll put us in an LES Advisory to cover for both. And because of the intensity as well. Should be a fun day. I haven’t seen anything over 4.7” here for a 24 hour period this season. I’m hoping to break that tomorrow.

    Posted January 27th at 10:16 PM

  61. Rick Tamland:

    Adam, How about that new entry? Thanks.

    Posted January 27th at 11:22 PM

  62. Adam Musyt:

    New entry up.

    Posted January 27th at 11:27 PM

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