Raining again in January!

Posted January 27th, 2012 by Bill Kardas. 39 comments

After a slice of winter weather yesterday, it's back to a soaking rain this morning, even in the deep pockets of the Adirondacks!  Rain will taper down as the storm system responsible for this rain will slide north and east of the area.  As the storm departs, the pressure gradient deepens, creating gusty wind in our area late this afternoon and tonight.

A cold front arrives this afternoon and will be accompanied by a round of snow showers.  I don't see much of an accumulation, with temperatures near or above freezing while the flakes still fly.  Perhaps a slushy coating to an inch on the hilltops.  We will see more light snow this weekend, and here are the details...

Zonal flow = small sprinters

The jet stream flattens out a bit this weekend, creating something meteorologists call 'zonal flow'.  A flat jet stream favors fast moving, weak storm systems.  We have a few opportunities for light snow this weekend from these fast moving systems.  Let's have at it:

Burst of snow late Saturday?

A fast moving cold front swings through on Saturday night.  The winds stay mainly westerly, despite the trough taking a negative tilt.  Remember, a negatively tilted trough tends to pack a bit more energy.  The only moisture to work with comes off the lakes, so a round of fluffly light snow is possible Saturday night, especially north of the Thruway. 

BUFKIT shows marginal conditions for lake effect Saturday night into Sunday along a 270 flow (Tug Hill).  We will monitor the winds for any subtle shifts between now and then, but it appears that any snow that continues Saturday night into Sunday stays north of the viewing area.

Lake flakes Sunday...

Another shortwave drops in from the west on Sunday, extending the chance for snow showers into Sunday.  The GFS is more aggressive with this feature, developing a weak, closed low and squeezing it to the north.  This track would favor light lake effect snow, with some accumulations.  With these minor features, it's often difficult to pin down snowfall amounts and duration beyond 24 hours.  Remember, the smaller the feature, the more difficult the forecast.  We'll keep you in the loop though through the weekend.

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  1. Gordon (Northwestern):

    I had more rain then I thought I would get last night. As of 10:30 AM I have received 1.52” of rain. Still raining lightly. Did have about 1.2” of snow and sleet before it changes to rain last evening. This is the 4th time I have put my rain gauge back out this winter to measure rain. Current temp. is up to 38. It’s hard to believe I only have 978 miles on my snowmobile this year. Usually by this time of the season I am over 2,000 miles.

    Posted January 27th at 10:52 AM

  2. Lori (Bridgeport):

    Mud in January …who’d a thunk ! .......lol.. I know …no question is a dumb one ….but its time again for one ….. does the fact that we had an extremely wet late summer / fall and high water tables have anything to do with the lack of snow this year ?

    Posted January 27th at 11:10 AM

  3. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Lori- The wet summer we had isn’t responsible for this puny winter. In fact, after extensive study locally, any unusually wet, dry, hot, cold season can’t be used to forecast the weather for the next season.

    The only connection we’ve made with past weather has to do with the lakes. A warmer than normal lake usually translates to more snow. Look how well that idea turned out this winter :(

    Posted January 27th at 11:35 AM

  4. Lori (Bridgeport):

    We’re not doing very well this year Bill….lol….and speaking of lakes …..I still wouldnt venture out more than a couple feet , if that, here on Oneida Lake.

    Posted January 27th at 11:40 AM

  5. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Getting some reports of minor ice jam flooding in Mohawk and Dolgeville. Anyone have information?

    Posted January 27th at 12:05 PM

  6. Mel (Westernville):

    Couple of spots up this way to. Worst one is just below the dam by Pennystreet road – down to one lane with a couple inches of water crossing the road.

    Posted January 27th at 12:19 PM

  7. Mel (Westernville):

    Just changed over to snow here.

    Posted January 27th at 2:04 PM

  8. Gordon (Northwestern):

    As o0f 2 PM, rain just changed to snow, and temp dropped 4 degrees in last 10 minutes, from 39 to 35. Total rain for this storm up to 1.77” Snow pack that was at 6.2” yesterday evening is down to an even 4”

    Posted January 27th at 2:08 PM

  9. Working in Utica (Ilion):

    Did anyone else get any thunder about 10 minutes ago? Or was it just my imagination. Heard it quite a few times….

    Posted January 27th at 2:17 PM

  10. Michael (Dolgeville):

    Large Ice Jam on the East Canada Creek between Dolge Ave and Van Buren Street in The Village of Dolgeville. Jam is between a quarter to half mile long and the water is getting close to flowing over the very end of Dolge Ave. Earlier Beaver Brook which is one of the East Canada’s tributaries, overflowed its banks sending water and ice into yards along Van Buren Street.

    Posted January 27th at 2:50 PM

  11. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    35 degrees here now with light wet snow…....High today 49 degrees. Temps really dropped fast in the last 2,3hours.

    Posted January 27th at 3:21 PM

  12. Randy HP (Holland Patent):

    This is really becoming a liability and I am sick and tired of the rain. TRAILS ARE still 75 % covered but not skiable today due to copious amounts of water. Anyways….

    The GFS is painting a winter picture beginning mid to late next week. By the 6thth of February, the models are showing the first true signs of winter in the continental USA. Correct me if I am wrong. The MODELS OFFER HOPE!!!!!! HOPE AT LAST!!!!!! I HOPE.

    Posted January 27th at 3:38 PM

  13. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    I agree, and really won’t mind since there is like only 2 months of winter left, with Randy there is hope next week. But then again 7-10 days out have been a colossal failure this winter.

    Posted January 27th at 9:52 PM

  14. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    29 degrees, overcast, light wind.

    Posted January 28th at 5:02 AM

  15. Denys (East Winfield):

    28 degrees, overcast with a light wind.

    Posted January 28th at 6:19 AM

  16. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Good morning! Looks like yet another quiet and mild day across the area. A weak front moves in tonight with some light snow. There is a better chance for some light accumulating snow Sunday Night into Monday.

    On a side note, I have been doing some research on seasonal snowfall totals. Since 1950, the least snowiest season was in 1982-1983 with 45.6” of snow.

    Posted January 28th at 7:18 AM

  17. MG (Point Rock):

    I picked up 1.8” of new snow last evening. I also picked up a total of 1.65” of precip, not quite as much as Gordon.
    Jill, my records don’t go quite that far back — only to 85-86. My lowest year was 99-00, when I had 114.5” Up to this date, I’m about 10” ahead of where I was that year.

    Posted January 28th at 7:55 AM

  18. matt (Cold Brook):

    I see that every Monday we post weekly snowfall amounts.Maybe we shalso add our weekly rainfall .I have partly cloudy with 30 degrees.Maybe half in of new snow.

    Posted January 28th at 8:13 AM

  19. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    33 degrees. Snow is pretty much gone. Good day to clean up the yard

    Posted January 28th at 9:08 AM

  20. Gordon (Northwestern):

    31 degrees and almost wall to wall sunshine.

    Posted January 28th at 9:16 AM

  21. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Lewis County form 6PM tonight until 10AM Sunday

    Posted January 28th at 9:27 AM

  22. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like an active pattern the next several days. NAM is showing snow right through Tuesday. Nice GB connection on Monday.

    Posted January 28th at 10:02 AM

  23. Lori (Bridgeport):

    I’m with Tony ….....good day to get out and clean up the yard…....never said that before in January !

    Posted January 28th at 10:08 AM

  24. Chris (HP Weather) (Holland Patent):

    Picked up a couple inches of slushy snow this week. seasonal up to 29 inches and counting. What a changable day yesterday, change over happened beginning around 2:30 or so. Looking to hopefully recapture the snowpack we lost atleast with in the coming weeks

    Posted January 28th at 11:06 AM

  25. Rob (Whitesboro):

    GFS shows the GB connection too on Monday. It’s rare for it to pick up on LES so this could be decent event if the 290 flow holds.

    Posted January 28th at 12:25 PM

  26. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Another mild January day…up to 44* here. Models showing warmup ahead of another western runner next Wednesday/Thursday, could make a run at 50; it has 60’s for southern PA.

    Posted January 28th at 3:32 PM

  27. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Something you rarely see in January, instability with the cold front tomorrow. The lifted index is around 0 with the passing of the front. I would not be surprised if we get reports of thundersnow.

    Posted January 28th at 5:25 PM

  28. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Heavy sleet has turned over to moderate snow here.

    Posted January 28th at 6:27 PM

  29. matt (Cold Brook):

    34 degrees and heavy wet snow here in Cold brook. Some flakes are half dollar size.

    Posted January 28th at 6:38 PM

  30. matt (Cold Brook):

    34 degrees and heavy wet snow here in Cold brook. Some flakes are half dollar size.

    Posted January 28th at 6:38 PM

  31. Jill Reale (Utica):

    We got a report of lightning in Farifield.

    Posted January 28th at 7:01 PM

  32. Jill Reale (Utica):

    We got a report of lightning in Farifield.

    Posted January 28th at 7:01 PM

  33. Denys (East Winfield):

    31 degrees and snowing. The wind is howling out there! .5” of new snow so far.

    Posted January 28th at 7:02 PM

  34. Bill (Exeter Center):

    Lightning and thunder along with fairly heavy snow in Exeter Center.

    Posted January 28th at 7:02 PM

  35. Denys (East Winfield):

    Amazing Jill…lightning in January!

    Posted January 28th at 7:05 PM

  36. Tim (Salisbury):

    Thunder & Lightning here in Salisbury! It shook my house!

    Posted January 28th at 7:11 PM

  37. mike w (HERKIMER):

    Also saw lightning here in east herkimer

    Posted January 28th at 7:53 PM

  38. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Earlier we had huge snowflakes falling and we had one big clap of thunder. The temperature was 36* at that time.
    The snow still turned the green grass to white again.
    It’s very windy here now but no snow and the temp is 33*

    Posted January 28th at 8:37 PM

  39. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Very brief period of sleet here earlier, mostly rain, no snow, no thunder, no lightning. 35*

    Posted January 28th at 9:10 PM

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