Given some time constraints this morning, this entry is going to be shorter than usual.
Overnight lows this morning are in the mid 20s across the board. Though we have an east wind kicking in, it's not going to keep us below freezing this afternoon, meaning the threat of freezing rain is almost off the table. I say almost, because in "Tier II" from the last entry, there's always that chance that the coldest pockets will delay in warming up.
As I write this entry, we are 27 degrees in Rome, and have gained 2 degrees in the last hour. With the rain arriving after dark, temperatures will likely climb into the mid 30s before it gets here.
The east wind is going to battle the surge of warm weather tonight. Winds could gust over 35mph at times before the heavy rain arrives. Temperatures will slowly climb into the low to mid 40s tonight, with heavy rain arriving after midnight. Temperatures tomorrow morning may start out near 50!
The models have slowed the whole system down, and that means more rain, warmer temperatures, and a higher chance for flooding. Rainfall is expected to be between 1-2" regionwide tonight and tomorrow morning, along with plenty of snow melt. Flood and flash flood watches are posted across the board for tonight and Monday. If you live near a stream or creek, keep an eye on things. Minor flooding is a concern here over the next 36 hours.
Ice jams will also be an issue for some area streams. Our fellow bloggers will keep you posted with how that situation turns out.
Comments
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Anthony (Oriskany):
Bill – Thanks for East wind write-up. Very informative. It is interesting to look at the personal weather stations on Google. Many locations North of here. Started in the teens and have jumped some 15 degrees in a few hours. It is almost mind boggling that the typical coldest locations will be warmer than us today. Where can I get the Rome sounding?
Posted January 24th at 11:59 AM
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Adam Musyt:
Anthony,
We can only get true soundings from airports that launch rawinsondes into the atmosphere. Closest airports that do that are Buffalo and Albany.
We can use the next best thing though. If you copy the link below into your web browser:
http://www.wxcaster.com/model_skewt.htm
Then type RME in the box in the center of the page and click “submit query” you can find a model forecast sounding for Rome.
If you want a true sounding from Buffalo or Albany you can find it from the UCAR site here:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/
Posted January 24th at 12:26 PM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Man the radar is really filling in to the west. Looks like we are in for a long period of rainfall!
Posted January 24th at 3:23 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
30.2 degrees here currently.
Posted January 24th at 4:08 PM
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cedarville:
its only 26 here .is there a threat of freezing rain
Posted January 24th at 4:56 PM
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Anthony (Oriskany):
5pm and still below freezing. Ouch.
Posted January 24th at 5:04 PM
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Justin (Whitesboro):
NWS in Buffalo should be releasing LES watch’s for the North Country…WKTV any thoughts?
Posted January 24th at 5:08 PM
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Steve (east side of Kyser lake):
Hey Michael, How are you?? The lake is froze solid down here as you would expect it to be but when I went into town today, I also saw on the topside of Charlie’s dam that the ice was jaming up and frozen big time. Charlie has his big excavator up there to break the ice by the turbine intake for the mill but with a inch of rain or better in the forecast, shouldn’t someone from some agency be watching that ice build-up.
My guess is with run-off from this storm, North main would get hammered with flooded backyards.
Regards, StevePosted January 24th at 5:16 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Hey gang!
Forecast still looks on track. There will likely be a few pockets of freezing drizzle in the typically colder spots for the next few hours – but that just looks to be brief and isolated. There is a whole lot of warmer air moving in from the south, and eventually that will make its way to the surface. Temperatures will likely rise into the 40’s over much of CNY after midnight.
Posted January 24th at 5:33 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Hey Steve! I’m doing good. I have been all over the area lately, even down in the Catskills, and I can say with certainty the East Canada Creek has the most amount of ice out of anywhere I have been. I’m with Skywarn so I will be keeping a very close watch on things and will notify NWS Albany ASAP if any problems arise. Yes, with 1-2+ inches of rain coming combined with snowmelt, I am extremely concerned with flooding on North Main Street, Dolge Ave, as well as Van Buren Street. There is just an incredible amount of jammed up ice here. Not a good situation at all! If there is going to be flooding, this is the area where its going to occur. Keep us posted Steve!!!
Posted January 24th at 5:42 PM
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fairfield:
hey Michael. Last time i was in dolgeville i saw it too, are you talking right above the dam or did it start moving, i was there last thursday, where abouts do you live if you don’t mind me asking
Posted January 24th at 6:30 PM
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Steve (east side of Kyser lake)::
Hi Mike, THanks for writing back. It sounds like you have it under control up there. That is a lot of ice though.
I’ll keep you all abreast of any strange going ons down here. I can’t see the ice cracking or breaking down there because it is just too thick.
I am just wondering where does 1 to 2 inches of rain go when you have a 50 acre lake with a 12 inch lid of ice on it.
Will all that water try to lift the entire ice sheet or run down to the dam on top of the ice??
Best, StevePosted January 24th at 6:35 PM
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nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):
Just starting to sprinkle here
Sitting at 36 degreesPosted January 24th at 7:49 PM
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Dave (Lairdsville):
All this talk about heavy rain and warm temps is depressing… Lets talk about fun stuff like when is our next snow day is? Do we still have a potential snow storm this weekend?
Anybody?Posted January 24th at 8:19 PM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Temperature up to 36 degrees with plain rain.
Posted January 24th at 8:22 PM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
The temp is 41* right now and it is raining.
It’s not raining hard though.
We still have quite a bit of snow out back the house. It would have been nice if it could have stayed warm with no rain.
I just checked the Griffiss Radar and it looks like the heavy rain is going to miss us for now.Posted January 24th at 8:52 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Fairfield: Yeah, from the dam north past the Route 29 bridge. It hasn’t budged an inch in weeks. I live on Helmer Ave.
Steve: what will happen is the water level under the ice will rise causing the sheet ice to fracture and break up. It is not the 1-2” inches of rain on the ice that causes the problems. It is the combination of snowmelt/rainfall WELL upstream in the headwaters of the creek that will cause the rise in water levels.
Posted January 24th at 10:15 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Also, we have been getting some freezing rain here for a little over an hour. Can’t stand up on the sidewalk. Just a sheet of ice. Secondary roads are slick!
Posted January 24th at 10:21 PM
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Heather (Mohawk 5S) :
Hubby just texted from Saint Johnsville said roads are ice. be cautious traveling tonight… It’s been raining for just over an hour here but its freezing to the road
Posted January 24th at 10:59 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Thanks for the heads up, 18 and 19.
The vast majority of the area is looking at plain rain and everyone should go over soon. Still, watch out for icy patches in the Dolgeville/St. Johnsville area.
Posted January 24th at 11:06 PM
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Matt (CB):
43 degrees with what appear to be a “dryslot” on the radar.If this was a snow event ,we would all be crying but not for rain.Wind is still coming out of the east at around 17mph with gust up to 27 mph.Good luck everyone in the flood areas.
Posted January 25th at 2:40 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Heavy rain beginning to fill in from the west. Temperatures across Central New York are above freezing, so it will fall as plain rain. The hills are in the low 50s while the valleys are in the low 40s right now, but once that front comes on by the temperatures will spike. Going for a high of 50 degrees here…if it does happen it will be brief. Temperatures are well above freezing and we’re losing snow quickly here in Utica.
Posted January 25th at 4:47 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
We’re still watching for the possibility of some flooding…but so far we’ve seen only about 0.3” of precipitation. Again though, stressing more on the way.
Posted January 25th at 4:50 AM
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Tom (Richfield Springs):
48 degrees, not raining right now
Posted January 25th at 5:34 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Winds are howling here on Smith Hill. Gusts over 30mph.
Posted January 25th at 6:27 AM
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nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):
Quite windy here as well
Temp is at 45Posted January 25th at 6:49 AM
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court:
are we going to get any big winter storms for the remander of winter?
Posted January 25th at 7:00 AM
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WINTER (Forestport):
47 ° and windy…the rain didn’t amount to much…
Posted January 25th at 7:02 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
By the way, it’s Monday. Send us in your snowfall reports and I’ll update the list tomorrow morning.
Posted January 25th at 7:12 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
By the way, the east wind is keeping us about 10 degrees cooler here in the Mohawk Valley. Syracuse is up to 56 degrees.
We should stay in the mid to upper 40s for the morning before the front arrives. Once the front crosses the area the temperatures will spike as winds shift into the west and scour out any remaining cold air. Then we’ll ease back into the mid 40s for the remainder of the day.
Posted January 25th at 7:15 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Seasonal snowfall total as of 1/25/2010 is at 30.4” inches.
Posted January 25th at 7:18 AM
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Brian (Lairdsville):
40.7 inches for the season. Haven’t added much the last three Mondays.
Posted January 25th at 7:28 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
46 degrees here.
Posted January 25th at 7:40 AM
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MG(Point Rock):
Season snowfall is 68.5”
So far I’ve picked up only 0.56 inches of precip with this storm. Temp is 47, snowpack down to 7.5 inches.Posted January 25th at 8:04 AM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):
38.0” for the year Bill.
NOTHING but the drifts are left now. Grass is still kinda green too.
Posted January 25th at 8:07 AM
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Scott (HP):
I know I’ve been complaining about the storms going out to sea and missing us. I really wish this one missed us. Imagine if this was snow? We’d be getting dumped on. Woke up today and it felt like July. 50 & Raining. Remember?
Posted January 25th at 8:15 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
I can see that a lot of folks are getting anxious about the warm, wet weather. Consider this our “January thaw”, because temperatures will be back to their seasonal averages tomorrow and into the week. Winter is not finished yet.
I don’t mean to sound like I’m blowing people off by not talking about potential snows later in the week, but this current weather situation (flooding, rain) needs our complete attention right now. Once we get through today, then we’ll move on to what will be in store for the week tomorrow.
On a side note…as a weatherman, change is good. It is interesting to watch a big storm move through, even if it only brings rain.
Posted January 25th at 8:29 AM
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Tom (Richfield Springs):
Snow fall for the year 48.6”
Posted January 25th at 8:44 AM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
It’s 50* here and it’s been raining almost a heavy rain for the past hour. I have no idea how much rain we got during the night, only what is posted.
A tremendous amount of snow melted since midnight. The run off water is only about a 1/4 mile to the Oriskany Creek.
Anyone out there have a rain gage on their weather station??? Do they work good or not???Posted January 25th at 8:53 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
NYSDOT is parked next to the Rt 29 bridge here in town watching the ice jam.
Posted January 25th at 8:53 AM
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fairfield:
Michael, keep me posted. To all 49 degrees here, top gust of 48, avg about 25….my rain guage must be broke….got no total….noticed about a week ago it went nuts and kept showing rain….climbed up to over 74 inches…...something’s just not right. oh well
Posted January 25th at 9:52 AM
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Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):
Flash Flood Warnings are up!
Art, yeah the rain gauge works pretty good on my station. I get some blow over on it.
Posted January 25th at 10:03 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
958 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A
- FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
Posted January 25th at 10:11 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
911 center toning out the county for the Warning down here. Looks like tremendous rain amounts just west of us. There is even a line of storms going through broome and southern chenango.
Art- I use both my electronic and a COCORAHS guage, my electronic is not great.
Posted January 25th at 10:14 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Is it Summertime out there?????
Just had a loud rumble of thunder, it got very dark, and now the sky has opened up. Extremely heavy rain at this time.
Posted January 25th at 10:26 AM
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Brad (Oneonta):
Pushing 60 degrees here. 58 at this time and no rain but fierce wind.
Posted January 25th at 10:29 AM
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Kenny (South utica):
almost looks like a squall line about to move through areas from the thruway south….I imagine its going to get ugly out there.
Posted January 25th at 10:36 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Really heavy rain now arriving here at the TV station. East wind is toast too.
Posted January 25th at 10:49 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I think I just drove through a monsoon. The rain had to be coming down over 2” an hour! Most of my street has standing water on it. I have standing water in my backyard too. The snowpack is just about gone.
Posted January 25th at 10:55 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Flash flood warning extended into Herkimer, Otsego County….
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A
- FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
- UNTIL 445 PM EST
- AT 1041 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
- THIS HEAVY RAIN...COUPLED WITH SNOW MELT...WILL CAUSE RAPID
Posted January 25th at 10:58 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Just wet out a checked the gauge. I had .90” in it.
Posted January 25th at 11:00 AM
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Tom (Richfield Springs):
11:15 AM Wind now in the west, just started raining hard
Posted January 25th at 11:22 AM
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Amy (Salisbury):
Seasonal Snowfall 40.75 : (
Posted January 25th at 11:47 AM
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Bill Kardas:
Wind gusts today:
Roseboom 49mph
Richfield Springs 45mphPosted January 25th at 12:00 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Dense fog has developed here. Visability here is no more than 100 feet.
Posted January 25th at 12:13 PM
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Kenny (South utica):
how funny the sun is trying to poke through!
Posted January 25th at 12:21 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
There’ isn’t know sun here!! The ceiling is on the ground. I can barely see the house across the street.
Posted January 25th at 12:25 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
I can’t remember ever seeing this many flash flood warnings out at once.
Posted January 25th at 12:28 PM
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randy Vitullo :
Can we please just get back to winter…...................Weekend storm; out to sea, too cold. Can’t win…..
Posted January 25th at 12:34 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Randy Wednesday could be a snowy day for you and points north. Looks like a decent lake band wants to set-up somewhere just north of the thruway.
Posted January 25th at 12:44 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Light rain with dense fog. So far I’ve picked up 1.85 inches of rain that combined with the strong winds during the overnight and this morning have just about killed the snowpack. At this time, the snowpack is on average around 4 to 5 inches I expect to lose another few inches over the course of the afternoon.
Posted January 25th at 1:02 PM
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Matt(CB):
The temp has dropped 9 degrees in las 90 minuts.Fog is very thick and wind is slight out of west now.Gonna venture out and check streams and W C creek.My stream in back yard is about 30 feet wide now.Usually runs about 2 feet wide.Still have a good snowpack but some grass on the south side of hills showing through.
Posted January 25th at 1:05 PM
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Gordon (Northwestern):
51.6” of snow for the season. As of noon today I have gotten 2.15” of rain since last evening.
Posted January 25th at 1:16 PM
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Gordon (Northwestern):
51.6” of snow for the season. As of noon today I have gotten 2.15” of rain since last evening.
Posted January 25th at 1:16 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Only 0.58” of rain here since last night. The East Canada Creek remains jammed up with ice near the Rt 29 bridge although there is no flooding occuring at this time.
Posted January 25th at 2:02 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Season total at 52.8”
Posted January 25th at 2:22 PM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Seasonal snowfall- 45.3”
Weekly total snowfall- 2.9”Very heavy rainfall today, flooding but it does appear to be limited to the normal spots that we have issues with.
Posted January 25th at 2:59 PM
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leg569:
Still raining here in Middleville. West Canada is getting high. Some flooding starting in Newport.
Posted January 25th at 3:01 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
The temp is 45. At this time we’re still getting a light to sometimes moderate rain. The good news is the fog has lifted. I’ve picked up 2.07 inches of rain. seasonal snowfall stands at 92.825.
Posted January 25th at 3:21 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
The temp has started to fall off now it’s down to 42. Winds are WSW – W at 14-20 mph.
Posted January 25th at 3:40 PM
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(west Leyden):
The westher channel desktop is flashing orange,,under a warning for a foot of lake effect snow is that true,,????????for Tug Hill Tuesday into Wednesday !!!!!?
Posted January 25th at 4:19 PM
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(west Leyden):
The westher channel desktop is flashing orange,,under a warning for a foot of lake effect snow is that true,,????????for Tug Hill Tuesday into Wednesday !!!!!?
Posted January 25th at 4:19 PM
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WEST LEYDEN :
Sorry for the typo ment to say —-weather—-channel on post 72
Posted January 25th at 4:21 PM
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Andy Forestport:
The What Channel? lol
Posted January 25th at 4:32 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Good evening!
Rain is just about over as the cold front continues to cross CNY. We picked up a solid 1.47” of rain in the past 24 hours at Griffiss.
A Flood warning remains in effect for the West Canada Creek at Kast Bridge for Minor flooding through late tonight.
Lake effect will get going especially late tomorrow and into tomorrow night on the Tug Hill Plateau with Lake Snow watches now in effect for Jefferson and Lewis Counties.
Posted January 25th at 4:41 PM
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Adam Musyt:
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
346 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TUESDAY...WITH
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE BAND TO INITIALLY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
TUG HILL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT THE BAND WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH FOCUSING MORE ON OSWEGO COUNTY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND
TOWARDS WATERTOWN LATER IN THE DAY.AT THIS TIME THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE A
COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE.
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TUG HILL. MUCH LESS ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO
BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.Posted January 25th at 4:41 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I have 1.3” here for a storm total. Fog has finally lifted as well. Visability was almost zero here for awhile today.
Posted January 25th at 4:56 PM
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cedarville:
will any snow make to the valley
Posted January 25th at 5:35 PM
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Kurt:
Adam showed a front! Thanks Good job Adam :)
Keep up the good work,Posted January 25th at 5:55 PM
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Adam Musyt:
#78,
Possibly – but it won’t be as intense as what we see on the Tug and there is only a brief window of opportunity early Wednesday before the band shifts back to the north in response to the next trough digging in from Canada. We should have a better idea late tonight and tomorrow.
Posted January 25th at 6:23 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
0.74” of rain here for a storm total. Ice still remains jammed in the East Canada.
Posted January 25th at 6:26 PM
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Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):
Picked up 1.5 inches of rain today from the soaker.. My pond flooded over during the day.. I saw on the way home from work that the mohawk river in oriskany is flooding the flats and looks to be about a foot or so from reaching river street. I did pick up 2 inches of snow last week bring my seasonal total to 39.5 inches. So the lake effect appears to be north of rome for late tommorow and wednesday.. maybe we can hope for a shift but probably not. Definately a change from the norm that for sure during the last day or two.
Posted January 25th at 6:42 PM
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Brick Tamland:
That was just brutal to see the past 1.5 days. What if it was cold enough to snow and would it have come down as hard the rain did. Any thoughts Team?
Posted January 25th at 6:53 PM
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WINTER (Forestport):
It’s 35° right now down from a hi of 48° today…
Posted January 25th at 7:08 PM
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Jimmy (New Hartford):
Seasonal Snow Total: 47.2 inches
Posted January 25th at 7:49 PM
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Stacy(Stratford):
Michael, the East Canada just let loose! Made such a bang I actual thought it was thunder. I sent my husband out with a spot light and sure enough she’s raging mad! Dolgeville Fire Dept was just toned to flooding on North Main Street in Dolgeville also. Not a good sign!
Posted January 25th at 11:11 PM
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Stacy(Stratford):
They are evacuating residents on North Main Street in Dolgeville!
Posted January 25th at 11:14 PM
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Adam Musyt:
87,
Thanks for the information. I’ll pass it on to the news department.
New entry is up.
Posted January 25th at 11:32 PM
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Adam Musyt:
Stacy,
Thanks again for the heads up. News heard about it on the scanner too and we’re going to try to get a cameraman out there.
Posted January 25th at 11:43 PM
Add a Comment
Recent Comments on this Entry
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Adam Musyt
January 25th, 11:43 PM
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Adam Musyt
January 25th, 11:32 PM
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Stacy(Stratford)
January 25th, 11:14 PM
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Stacy(Stratford)
January 25th, 11:11 PM
-
Jimmy (New Hartford)
January 25th, 7:49 PM
-
WINTER (Forestport)
January 25th, 7:08 PM
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Brick Tamland
January 25th, 6:53 PM
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Chris ( HP Weather Observer )
January 25th, 6:42 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville)
January 25th, 6:26 PM
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Adam Musyt
January 25th, 6:23 PM
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