Quick shot of rain, then back to winter...

Posted January 17th, 2012 by Bill Kardas. 53 comments

The Landin method for winter precipitation was the method of choice last night.  Despite the warming aloft, it wasn't warm enough aloft to create a changeover to sleet and freezing rain.  Instead, the snowflakes partially melted, creating a heavy wet snow for parts of the area. 

Going forward, a transition from freezing rain to rain takes place this morning as temperatures warm up.  Some cold pockets will struggle to warm up, but it looks inevitable that rain will fall this afternoon.  Temperatures are well into the 40s out west, and we have a solid additional 12+ hours of warm air advection on our plates.

Old man winter style cold front...

A potent cold front kicks through overnight, bringing a round of rain changing to snow.  The low deepens as it swings to the north, creating a tight pressure gradient.  The pressure gradient force creates strong wind, and we expect a strong and intense northwest wind behind a cold front tonight.  Gusts could exceed 40mph overnight...a potential rude wakeup call.  The strong winds and strong cold air advection will cause an abrupt drop in temperature before daybreak.  Another flash freeze looks possible just in time for the morning commute. 

Snowfall...

Snow is back in the forecast tonight.  Here's the setup: As the cold front kicks through it produces a round of rain.  As temperatures cool off aloft, lake effect snow initially develops along a 280-290 flow between 3-6am (keeping the band near or north of the Mohawk Valley).  Winds gradually shift northwest as colder air settles in.  The flow swings from 290 to 310 by late morning, shifting the band west of the Mohawk Valley.  The 850mb differential is -13C (minor instability) early, but drops to -18 (moderate instability) once the band shifts out of the valley.

The data suggests accumulating snow overnight and early tomorrow morning for most of Central New York.  With the band on the move throughout the day, it will be hard for the snow to accumulate to high amounts in one particular area.  I think many areas pick up a fluffy couple of inches of snow through the course of the event.  The snow looks to shut off late in the day to the west.  Snowfall maps coming after the 12z data completely arrives.

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  1. Winter (Forestport):

    29°…

    Posted January 17th at 10:40 AM

  2. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    32 degrees and raining in Utica. Anyone actually have freezing rain? I noticed that it didn’t produce freezing rain in the valley at 31 degrees.

    Posted January 17th at 10:43 AM

  3. MG (Point Rock):

    Between 9:30 and 10 there was some light freezing rain happening as I was driving through the town of Ava (northern part). I could see a layer of ice on the twigs and branches. Car thermometer said 32 at that time. Not sure what’s going on outside now.

    Posted January 17th at 10:51 AM

  4. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
    WEDNESDAY...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
    WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
    WEDNESDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

    • LOCATIONS...THE NORTH COUNTRY.
    • TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

    • WINDS...WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
    • IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TREE LIMBS
    TO FALL...CAUSING SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AS WELL AS BLOWING ABOUT OF SMALL DEBRIS INCLUDING TRASH CANS. DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE HAZARDOUS...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

    Posted January 17th at 10:53 AM

  5. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    That high wind warning is for Lewis County.

    Posted January 17th at 10:54 AM

  6. Gordon (Northwestern):

    At 11 AM, light freezing rain for the last hour. Temp is at 31.6

    Posted January 17th at 11:00 AM

  7. Mel (Westernville):

    Up to 31 here and very light freezing drizzle here as well.

    Posted January 17th at 11:05 AM

  8. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Randy- to answer your earlier question, we’re expecting about 0.25-0.50” of rainfall.

    Posted January 17th at 12:11 PM

  9. Randy HP (Holland Patent):

    Thanks Bill. I sure hope the snow pack survives. Skiing was good Saturday through Monday. I groomed on Saturday and on Monday.

    I hate western runners….......

    What about cooling as the precipitation falls today? Couldn’t that do battle with warm air advection? Wishful thinking…..

    Posted January 17th at 12:20 PM

  10. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Randy- evaporational cooling only happens when the air is initially dry. We are saturated in the column…actually we’re almost isothermal. If there was mixing like there usually is in other parts of the country we’d be in the 50s.

    Posted January 17th at 12:24 PM

  11. Mel (Westernville):

    Bill – if I am reading the long range models correctly are they calling for another significant warmup in the 7-10 day range? Still hanging at 31 degrees here.

    Posted January 17th at 12:29 PM

  12. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Mel- they are…will be interesting to see how that turns out. It looks like the whole continental US may have an extended January thaw next week. We shall see…

    Posted January 17th at 12:34 PM

  13. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    It is pouring out here in Oneida. They also didn’t really get much snowfall out here last night compared to Utica. 38* out here right now.

    Posted January 17th at 12:42 PM

  14. Michael (Dolgeville):

    29.3 degrees here with heavy freezing rain. Roads are icing up.

    Posted January 17th at 12:47 PM

  15. Mel (Westernville):

    Finally hit 32 and now the eaves are dripping – looks like the melting has begun.

    Posted January 17th at 1:06 PM

  16. Dan(Herkimer) (Herkimer):

    currently 30.4 degrees we are getting some freezing rain

    Posted January 17th at 1:36 PM

  17. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Looks to me like long range GFS was not as warm today(12z).....I agree with Bill…should be interesting next week…Really, the long range models have been very very bad…....so…things can change. Friday looks interesting too with that low to the north,northwest. Maybe some snow and LES.....

    Posted January 17th at 1:39 PM

  18. Mel (Westernville):

    This looks ominous…....

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    Posted January 17th at 1:55 PM

  19. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    All Rain here…..snowpack is depleting fast, or at least what we had is.

    Posted January 17th at 2:14 PM

  20. Ralph L (New Hartford ( 900 ft )):

    1. 18 : If that map is true – then say goodby to snow cover. That would leave us with Febuary and some of March for good snow. Also, the sun will be stronger and the snow will melt quicker. It is looking like a below normal snow season. We will see.

    Posted January 17th at 2:48 PM

  21. Cindy (Ilion):

    Wow coming home from work was tricky, the roads are really getting icy here in Ilion as it seems the slush is starting to freeze.

    Posted January 17th at 2:50 PM

  22. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    Still 37 degrees here, rain has stopped to a drizzle and not freezing so far.

    Posted January 17th at 4:10 PM

  23. Deb (Hartwick):

    38 degrees here..going to be a mess when all the slush freezes. Drizzle is falling.

    Posted January 17th at 4:43 PM

  24. giuseppe (ilion):

    ilion 37 degrees light rain

    Posted January 17th at 4:43 PM

  25. Adam Musyt:

    49 mph wind gust at Cleveland at the top of the hour. Winds will be picking up here through the evening.

    Posted January 17th at 5:31 PM

  26. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    My temp has risen 7 degrees in the past hour from 33* up to 40*

    Posted January 17th at 6:01 PM

  27. Kenny (South utica):

    Anyone notice the squall line moving into western ny….nws has severe thunderstorm warnings on, something you dont see much in mid january, any chance it makes it to us

    Posted January 17th at 6:07 PM

  28. Denys (East Winfield):

    39 degrees with drizzle.

    Kenny, that would be something!!

    Posted January 17th at 6:16 PM

  29. Gary (Schuyler):

    Interesting watching the car thermometer as I drove from New Hartford to Schuyler
    going via Higby Road this evening.

    33 degrees at the corner of Oxford Rd. and Genesee St in New Hartford.

    Generally 35 to 37 degrees going down Rt. 8 to Washington Mills.

    Going up Chapman Rd to the top onto Higby Road. Higby was 41 degrees.

    Coming back down Sherman Drive into East Utica, 35 degrees again. Black ice through that area although the air temperature was above freezing.

    37 degrees going through the valley onto Dyke Road and Rt. 5 in Schuyler.

    39 degrees at my location at roughly 770 ft. in Schuyler.

    Posted January 17th at 6:16 PM

  30. Gary (Schuyler):

    All the above expected knowing warm air is aloft.

    Posted January 17th at 6:17 PM

  31. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Gary: I’m seeing the same here at my house up off of Higby Road, i’m up to 43* degrees right now.

    Posted January 17th at 6:21 PM

  32. Michael (Dolgeville):

    31.8 degrees here. Trees are coated in ice and the roads are still icy/slushy.

    Posted January 17th at 6:40 PM

  33. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    Oneida and Madison counties just upgraded by NWS to High Wind Warning. Buffalo had a 67 mph go through a few minutes ago with that severe thunderstorn line.

    Posted January 17th at 6:50 PM

  34. Adam Musyt:

    Kenny,

    We’ll never say never, but conditions are more unstable over western New York, where temperatures are in the 50’s near Buffalo.

    Temperature inversion closer to home has kept surface readings so far in the 30’s, (though they may spike a bit over the next few hours).

    Really what’s likely to be left by the time the line reaches our area is some gusty showers.

    Posted January 17th at 6:56 PM

  35. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Dunkirk hit 71mph. At least a dozen reports of wind damage in WNY.

    Posted January 17th at 7:29 PM

  36. Dan(Herkimer) (Herkimer):

    currently 35.4 degrees with a dew point of 35 degrees

    Posted January 17th at 7:46 PM

  37. Matt (Rochester):

    It’s MFING windy out here. I can’t believe how much my apartment is shaking from the wind. Can someone pull up the wind gusts from the Brockport Asos station?

    Posted January 17th at 7:58 PM

  38. Matt (Rochester):

    It’s MFING windy out here. I can’t believe how much my apartment is shaking from the wind. Can someone pull up the wind gusts from the Brockport Asos station?

    Posted January 17th at 7:59 PM

  39. Adam Musyt:

    Rochester ASOS had a 55 mph gust at 7:54 PM.

    Posted January 17th at 8:12 PM

  40. Adam Musyt:

    Rome is up to 43 degrees as of 8 PM.

    Syracuse is at 49 degrees.

    Posted January 17th at 8:16 PM

  41. Adam Musyt:

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    822 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

    NYZ009-015018-022025-036-037-044-180215-
    CAYUGA NY-CHEMUNG NY-CORTLAND NY-MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA
    NY-SCHUYLER NY-SENECA NY-STEUBEN NY-TOMPKINS NY-YATES NY-
    822 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

    ...LINE OF SHOWERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
    CAYUGA...CHEMUNG...CORTLAND...ONEIDA...ONONDAGA...SCHUYLER...SENECA
    ...SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN...SOUTHEASTERN YATES...TOMPKINS...AND
    WESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

    • AT 815 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

    LINE OF SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THESE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 25
    MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMDEN TO 10 MILES NORTH OF BREWERTON TO CAYUGA
    TO PORTER CORNER TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TROUPSBURG...AND MOVING
    EAST AT 40 MPH.

    • STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT...
    VILLAGE GREEN AND VAN BUREN AT 825 PM EST... GLENORA AND CAMPBELL AT 830 PM EST... WYCKOFF AND WOODARD AT 835 PM EST... WESTVALE AND VENICE CENTER AT 840 PM EST... WATKINS GLEN AND SYRACUSE AT 845 PM EST... WEDGEWOOD AND TRUMANSBURG AT 850 PM EST... WILLOW CREEK AND TAUGHANNOCK FALLS AT 855 PM EST... BIG FLATS AND WEST GROTON AT 900 PM EST...

    A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

    Posted January 17th at 8:28 PM

  42. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Wind hasnt really picked up yet in Syracuse. Here, top gust of 27mph.

    Santa had to come inside off the webcam. I was afraid he’d blow down in the wind. Plus the ground is still unfrozen.

    Posted January 17th at 8:33 PM

  43. Adam Musyt:

    48 mph gust at Syracuse at 9:01.

    It’s on its way…

    Posted January 17th at 9:16 PM

  44. SteveH (Tully):

    Yes 47 mph gust here with a 10 min average of 28 mph

    Posted January 17th at 9:30 PM

  45. Winter (Forestport):

    I just heard the first gust of wind…

    Posted January 17th at 9:49 PM

  46. Mike (Rome):

    The wind has definitely picked up here, I have almost lost power three times already

    Posted January 17th at 10:48 PM

  47. Brent(802 Feet) (Dolgeville):

    Over the last few hours temp has climbed. Just a little over 40 right now.

    Posted January 17th at 10:56 PM

  48. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Winds are howling right now, temp rose to 45* degrees but have now fallen to 42*

    Posted January 17th at 11:11 PM

  49. Adam Musyt:

    60 mph gust at Syracuse at 11pm!

    Posted January 17th at 11:25 PM

  50. Adam Musyt:

    Highest wind gust so far at RME is 39 mph.

    Posted January 17th at 11:26 PM

  51. Dan(Herkimer) (Herkimer):

    currently 42.6 degrees wind at 10 mph with gusts at WSW of 31 mph

    Posted January 17th at 11:31 PM

  52. Dan(Herkimer) (Herkimer):

    correction WNW

    Posted January 17th at 11:32 PM

  53. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Highest gust here was 45mph….and it’s gusting pretty close to that right now. GFS looked alot colder again this run. Lots of chances for snow coming up.

    Posted January 17th at 11:52 PM

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