Quick Round of Lake Effect?

Posted January 23rd, 2012 by Adam Musyt. 31 comments

Monday will go in the books as another mild January day all across Central New York.  Today's high at Griffiss was a balmy 45 degrees, a solid 15 degrees above seasonal average.  Things will trend cooler over the next few days, but even with cooler weather, we still expect temperatures to be higher than our seasonal average.

 

Rain showers, drizzle and patchy (advection) fog are all scattered across the local area late this evening.  A cold front is now crossing Western New York and Pennsylvania, but the air behind this frontal boundary is only marginally cooler aloft.  Still, temperatures may cool just enough for any lingering showers to mix with some wet snow by daybreak Tuesday, especially across the higher elevations.  Gradually cooler air will slowly filter into CNY aloft during the day Tuesday.

 

By Tuesday evening, winds are expected to align over Lake Ontario on a 250 to 260-degree orientation as 850 millibar temperatures fall to around minus 10 degrees.  With lake surface temperatures around 4 degrees Celsius, this will likely be just enough to generate some lake effect snow. 

 

The lake effect for Tuesday Night has a lot working against it for snow lovers.  Instability is there, but it's not great, and what is expected to happen is that after the band develops, a short wave trough will dive through late in the evening and likely pull the band southward.  So at this point we see a) a weak band of lake effect and b) one that is transitory in nature - not likely to hang around any specific real estate for an extraordinary length of time.  Still, some areas could see a couple of inches of accumulation, so you'll want to keep that in mind for your travels on Tuesday Night.

 

High pressure is slated to build in for Wednesday, likely killing the lake effect quickly after daybreak.

 

Next weather maker to watch is a southern stream system for later Thursday and Thursday Night.  Latest trends have been taking the moisture further north, with some model disagreement on the extent of the cold air in place as precipitation arrives.  At this point odds favor more of a mix or a mix that changes to rain rather than all snow.  Should this pan out, we'll likely only be adding to our snowfall deficiency for the season, which now stands at 31 inches below seasonal average.

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  1. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    Still 40 degrees here, cloudy, light wind, lots of bare ground starting to show.

    Posted January 24th at 4:59 AM

  2. Denys (East Winfield):

    35 degrees, cloudy with a light wind. Yup, snow pack (if that is what you want to call it!) is def down…..

    Posted January 24th at 5:23 AM

  3. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    36 degrees here…...and cloudy.

    Posted January 24th at 5:29 AM

  4. Lori (Bridgeport):

    36 degrees and snow almost gone again ..this is nuts

    Posted January 24th at 6:42 AM

  5. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    36° here also, and nothing but snow banks and thats about it.

    Posted January 24th at 7:25 AM

  6. MG (Point Rock):

    Snow pack in Point Rock went from 9” to 5.5” just in the last 24 hrs. In Boonville, there are some pretty big bare patches.

    Posted January 24th at 8:06 AM

  7. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Green patches starting to show up here on Smith Hill. Pretty sad for late January. Winter is still absent in the extended forecast. Perhaps another rain/snow mix event on Friday.

    Posted January 24th at 8:35 AM

  8. Artman (Clinton):

    had a high temp of 48 yesterday and this morning its 39 and very grey. snowpack went from 5.5 to a green lawn this morning!

    Posted January 24th at 9:44 AM

  9. Mel (Westernville):

    Didn’t make it above 40 yesterday – 39 for a few hours around midnight was my high – been at 33 most of the morning. Was a lot of black ice on some of the gorge roads around here – scanner was pretty busy with cars off the road. I am guessing the snowpack (which is greatly diminished) held our temps down yesterday.

    Posted January 24th at 9:56 AM

  10. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Also had a high of 39 yesterday. Total rain was .41” at my house. Snowpack went from 8.5” yesterday morning down to 5” even this morning.

    Posted January 24th at 10:18 AM

  11. sue:

    45* for a high yesterday…..24* for a low…...45* for a high but down to 33* for a low and now going back up again to 34*.... .1” of rain yesterday…...nothing left but brown grass left…...some ice…..lots of YUK !

    Posted January 24th at 10:36 AM

  12. weatherjan-Oneida (Oneida):

    For information purposes: II have average temperature data (in tenths) for Griffiss for each day of the year. Period of coverage was from 1942 the late 1980s. The data indicate that the climatological coldest day(s) occur around 21/22 January where the av. high was 29.3F and av. low was 12.5F.

    Posted January 24th at 12:00 PM

  13. sue (fairfield):

    getting some of that “unknown mist/precip” stuff….wish it was white…temp has dropped down to 32

    Posted January 24th at 2:38 PM

  14. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Freezing Rain Advisories up for a lot of the area:

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    335 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

    ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
    EVENING...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
    RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING.

    • LOCATIONS...CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING ONEIDA...OTSEGO...
    CHENANGO...MADISON...ONONDAGA...CORTLAND...SOUTHERN CAYUGA...
    TOMPKINS...SCHUYLER...SENECA...YATES...AND STEUBEN COUNTIES.

    • HAZARDS...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

    • ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

    • TIMING...LIGHT RAIN IS STARTING TO FREEZE ON SURFACES AS
    TEMPERATURES COOL. THIS EVENING THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
    SNOW.

    • TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

    Posted January 24th at 3:54 PM

  15. JoeB00 (New Hartford):

    Are we expecting any clearing tonight for a possible chance to see aurora borealis? When is the last time we could see them in Utica 2005? I couldn’t find that far back in the archives on here..

    Posted January 24th at 4:40 PM

  16. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Temp is 33* getting a very fine mist with some weird grainy snow mixed in. The drive home on Rte. 5 from Oneida had a few slick spots, the salt trucks were out.

    Posted January 24th at 5:05 PM

  17. Lori (Bridgeport):

    my temp ia also at 33 …had a rain mix for a little while now changing to flurries …sanders are out…..I can go out and rake my lawn of al the branches the wind brought down a few days ago ….next I will want to mow ! ...snow is gone ..and I just got around 10 inches a little over a week ago….Crazy !

    Posted January 24th at 5:26 PM

  18. Lori (Bridgeport):

    whats going to be the best time to look for the northern lights tonight ?

    Posted January 24th at 6:45 PM

  19. Adam Musyt:

    Not too confident for much clearing tonight, folks.

    Posted January 24th at 9:57 PM

  20. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Good morning! Saw the posts last night about the northern lights. The best showing occurred along the Arctic Circle. Even if we did manage to clear out in time it wouldn’t have helped.

    Couple of notes before I dive into the weather…if you miss the deadline on Monday but post before the end of the day I’ll keep track of your report. I won’t post a new list until the following Monday, but you’re numbers will be on there. I understand everyone is on a different time schedule, so hopefully that helps out.

    Posted January 25th at 4:36 AM

  21. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Bottom of #20 is talking about seasonal snowfall reports.

    Posted January 25th at 4:36 AM

  22. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    26 degrees, overcast, light wind, just a dusting of snow with a few flakes in the air. Many of the surfaces are slippery from last night. Still hoping to see the aurora borealis, I can’t believe so many people have never seen them.

    Posted January 25th at 5:07 AM

  23. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    27 here with a dusting….I also have slick spots.

    Posted January 25th at 5:16 AM

  24. Denys (East Winfield):

    25 degrees, light wind and overcast. A few flakes floating around and a dusting on hard surfaces.

    Posted January 25th at 5:19 AM

  25. Doug G (mayfield):

    29 here and just a dusting. Bill do you think if all the snow lovers pitch in we could possibly buy a snow storm?

    Posted January 25th at 5:22 AM

  26. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    CME is over now from the M-9 class flare….....The storm almost made it to North America….but died just before.Parts of Greenland and Iceland saw it and many others…bummer.

    Posted January 25th at 6:05 AM

  27. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Doug,

    Haha! A snow storm is going to cost us a fortune this year :(

    Posted January 25th at 6:06 AM

  28. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    That should be the G.- Storm is over….....Lol Doug…how much…1 mil.?:)

    Posted January 25th at 6:12 AM

  29. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Just a faint dusting of snow here this morning.

    Posted January 25th at 7:11 AM

  30. Winter (Forestport):

    29°…and barely a dusting of snow over the ice covered ground…

    Posted January 25th at 7:29 AM

  31. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Low of 25 last night. currently 26. We had .3” of snow last night.

    Posted January 26th at 8:50 AM

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