Weather Blog | Quick Pre-Eclipse Entry

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I would like to take in at least some of this eclipse, as the last time I think I witnessed one, I was about 7 or 8 years old, so this will be brief.

Lots of clear skies out there in between snow showers...and even in some cases, it's probably snowing and clear. Get out, bundle up and enjoy if you can!

Lake Snow Tonight

Probably on 295-305 flow...mostly south of I-90. Thinking 2-4" should do it on average. But this is super fluff, so even a small amount will add up fast, and 5, 6, or 7" is possible in a spot or two in southern Oneida, Madison, northern Chenango or even extreme S Herkimer/N Otsego (W Winfield, Jordanville, Richfield Springs, etc.).

Friday Storm

Right now, I do think this still bears watching. The NAM is a super outlier at the moment, with heavy snow for us. No other model shows this. At this point, I would say there is the chance of a light-moderate accumulating snow south of I-90...mostly south of Rt 20...where several inches are possible. North of the Thruway, this appears to be a very light event. Tonight's 00Z model runs will shed some light on this.

Storm next Week?

The models are all over a possible significant storm next week that may do several things. It may bring the winter finale into the East and it may be a significant storm in and of itself. It bears watching as analogs continue to paint this pattern as one prime for a big storm. We'll see.... Enjoy the show!

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Comments

Jeff (Southern Hills):

I am hoping for some snow, maybe between tonight and Friday I can get 8 inches!

Posted February 20th at 8:53 PM
Matt Lanza:

Also, a request for pictures. If anyone captures anything really good and wants to submit, I might be able to sneak one or two on tonight at 11. Email us at weather@wktv.com.

Posted February 20th at 9:02 PM
Matt Lanza:

Moon's racing toward totality here...pretty neat sight to see! Obscured by clouds at times, but other times the thin transparent clouds provide some more effect I think.

Posted February 20th at 9:20 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I got a huge patch of clearing now right where the moon is.Awesome sight.Little less than a quarter left.

Posted February 20th at 9:36 PM
Mary (Sherrill):

Wow that is pretty neat! It's crystal clear here. A great view!

Posted February 20th at 9:41 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

NAM still gives us Warning snows...for now.The show is over for me as clouds have rolled back in.

Posted February 20th at 9:55 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

crystal clear here, as well, nice orange moon!!! just a little left to go, maybe a quater.

Posted February 20th at 9:56 PM
Matt Lanza:

Light snow before has ended here and we are about to hit totality. Just an awesome sight. You can see Saturn, right next to the moon. Mars, I believe, is about 90 degrees to the right of the moon, right above you.

Posted February 20th at 9:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

For those that would like to live vicariously, CNN has live video of it.

Posted February 20th at 9:59 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

eclipse looks great. went out and watched it through the telescope.

Posted February 20th at 10:02 PM
Laura (West Winfield):

I tried to get a few good pictures but it's too cold out for me. My girls keep yelling for me to come and look at the moon. We have clear skies here. Very pretty.

Posted February 20th at 10:08 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Too bad I have to work till 11pm....... At least I will see some of it coming out!

Posted February 20th at 10:11 PM
Matt (CB):

Very good show tonight of the first half of Eclips.Not staying up for the last half.
Come on Spring...29 days left of winter !!!

Posted February 20th at 10:12 PM
Matt Lanza:

As an aside, we saw the first real signs of spring today. Lake effect up north really had some issues trying to stay together over Lewis and Oneida Counties...it broke up into cellular form...which is a strong indication that the sun angle is beginning to take authority on us. We can still get decent LES during the day through mid-March, but it becomes a lot tougher.

In the meantime, LES is really struggling to develop tonight, and I feel comfy with the 2-4" call. Radar tends to underdo it in this type of low water content snow...so 2-4" of fluff seems logical south and west of about Clinton.

Posted February 20th at 10:16 PM
Linnette in Waterville:

Really neat to watch the eclipse-clear skies here for it, now it is starting to lightly snow.

Posted February 20th at 10:18 PM
randy Vitullo:

My wife and I watched the eclipse from our skis on the trail system. We just arrived back at 1015PM. It was awesome. Snow flakes lightly falling with in and out clouds. We took many pictures with the digital. The reflection from the flash off of the falling snow flakes was a show in of itself. Hopefully, they will develop. I will share them with you if they come out. Awesome................

Posted February 20th at 10:23 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

yea, today was the first day that it really looked like spring outside, to me at least. idk, i just kinda noticed it. even though temps were in the lower to mid 20s all day, it did not feel cold, the sun was out, winds were light, it felt pretty decent. also we had about a half inch of snow on the ground which melted completely even though we only reached 25 degrees today, that shows you the sun is strong.

Posted February 20th at 10:24 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Wow the NAM is just not backing down on the Friday storm is it??!?!?!? That would give us one heck of a snow if it were to verify. I would like to see the GFS come a little bit more that way!

Posted February 20th at 10:31 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

jeff, iwas also just looking at the WRF/NAM with amazement, it would give anyone south of route 20 a good chance at 8-12 inches of snow!!! wow that would be nice. lets hope we see some northward progress with the gfs!!! im going skiing friday and it would be nice if we got fresh powder all day!!

Posted February 20th at 10:34 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: I'm seeing signs that while it may be a bit overdone, the NAM might be worth a second look. The parallel run of the new experimental version of the NAM is showing a significant increase in precip over us. We've also seen the SREFs come around a bit toward at least a modest snow event, so I think we're in good shape for at least some snow.

Posted February 20th at 10:40 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike M: I gotta forewarn you....if the NAM verifies, your totals would like be cut down because...of sleet. Yes, that's right, it rears its ugly head again. Not entirely likely, but it will be awfully close down your way.

Posted February 20th at 10:45 PM
Matt Lanza:

Very early call based on the NAM/GFS coming in... thinking 1-3" north of I-90 and 3-6" south of I-90 from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Obviously more on that tomorrow. Some additional data was injested into the GFS tonight regarding next week's storm. Waiting to see what that says.

Posted February 20th at 11:04 PM
Matt HP:

I got to see it here and there because of the clouds. It was kinda neat cause when the clouds were really condensed everyonce in a while it would almost flash.

Posted February 20th at 11:04 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, why can i never see the sleet. i was looking at the 00z WRF and i know it showed the 850mb temp line just south of the pa border, but is there a warm layer at 750mb or something. also do u have a link to that pararell NAM. on last thing 00z gfs is in, and it is a tad north of 12z run. it puts .5 inches of qpf up to the ny/pa border. but the gfs would get us harder with the second wave. im leaning toward the NAM solution, the gfs just doesnt make sense.

Posted February 20th at 11:15 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Here's the NAM forecast soundings at Scranton. and at Binghamton. You are safe for now, but it's awfully close.

Posted February 20th at 11:32 PM
Jim in North utica:

With the eclipse in the background, the U.S. Navy succesfully shot down the wayward satellite a little while ago.

Posted February 20th at 11:36 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, two questions. one can it snow with a 500mb thickness over 540? and two, can u explain what to look at on the soundings, idont understand them?

Posted February 21st at 12:03 AM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Yes...the 540 line is a rough estimate of where a rain/snow line is. When I first started, I leaned on that heavily, until I learned there were many better ways to figure that out. But if you want to make a quick, dirty forecast, that's the rough guide. On the sounding...it plots temperature (right/solid) and dewpoint (left/dashed). Look at the bottom of the graph. Find the 0. This is called a skew-T plot...it's a skewed graph of temperature... lines that go like this: /// and height (horizontal lines). Look and see if the temp goes above 0...there's your warm layer. At Scranton it occurs around 775-825 mb...not a standard plot. So looking at these can really teach you a lot about p-type forecasting. This site will teach you tons about reading and interpreting soundings. Very useful in winter...and very useful in severe weather.

Posted February 21st at 1:27 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

thanks matt, ill checkout that site and hopefully ill be an expert at reading soundings lol, well see.thanks.

Posted February 21st at 1:31 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, well i checked the site out and it worked, i deffinetly understand it much better now; not an expert but understand it, it is a start. thanks again.

Posted February 21st at 1:36 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

wow its so cool lol, now when i look at soundings im not completely confused, i guess the main thing i didnt get was the fact that the temperature lines run SW-NE, that explains alot lol

Posted February 21st at 1:39 AM
mike(leonardsville):

Another day another bunch of GFS models showing the storm next week being a west runner. It's going to feel nice when the temps are going to be around 40 or so, also shows a massive dry slot too.

Posted February 21st at 6:18 AM
Matt(CB):

Well the eclpis was a nice view from here.I think the overnight low was a little off.We had minus 7 at 6:30 this morning.Also had just a dusting of snow.
Hopefully it will start to warm up...

Posted February 21st at 7:27 AM
Matt Lanza:

I was afraid of skies going clear in a few places in temperatures plummeting...I just figured the 0 mark would about do it. Apparently that wasn't enough. As long as clouds hold off tonight for a few hours, it could be equally as cold this evening. At this point, regarding tomorrow's storm, I'm expecting Snow Advisories to be issued perhaps as far north as southern Oneida, with potential for heavy snow warnings south of here, probably out of our viewing area. We'll see what NWS decides to do, but I can't see a HSW here.

Posted February 21st at 8:43 AM
Matt HP:

We were at about -2 this morning as well. All this cold air pretty much will help keep any chance of sleet out of the area tomorrow right?

Posted February 21st at 11:14 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Not impressed with the 12z runs but at least we'll see some accumalating snow.Flurries now as the lake band is trying to get better organized.

Posted February 21st at 11:22 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

12z NAM stripes the extreme northern tier of PA with over 10 inches of snow but leaves me with 4-8 inches by literally 20 miles!!! this is still a close call down this way, but i do think anyone north of route 20 will probably be spared anything over 5 or 6 inches from this one.

Posted February 21st at 12:25 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

12z cmc really gets us good nexet tuesday.

Posted February 21st at 12:58 PM
Anthony:

Matt,

It looks to me that if this storm next week actually happens (just saying a storm of large magnitude), that this will be the pattern change that we have been looking for ALL winter. I think that your prediction of a above normal March snow may be in order.

Posted February 21st at 1:37 PM
Becky(West Leyden):

Overnight low was -22.

Posted February 21st at 1:57 PM
Matt Lanza:

Anthony: I'm with you on that...it's that kind of storm.

Becky: WOW! That's ridiculous. Don't think you'll get that cold tonight, but...it'll get cold fast.

Agree on the wimpy nature of the Fri-Sat storm here...Snow Advisories up south of here. Still liking our 1-3/3-6 call. Map and other fun stuff forthcoming.

Posted February 21st at 2:34 PM
Matt Lanza:

Well, I'm not so sure after looking at the data, that this is going to be a wimpy, snoozer of a system. I'm going 2-4" for Rome, Boonville, Old Forge.... 4-8" for Little Falls, Herkimer, Cooperstown, Oneonta, Norwich. In Utica, I have us on the border of the 2-4/4-8, so probably 3-6"ish. To be honest with you, this may be a changeable forecast. There is going to be a decent cutoff between the nuisance snow and potentially problematic snow. This will fall somewhere in our viewing area. The good news? No mixing! Mix may again come close to BGM, but probably not much more north than that. Map coming soon.

Posted February 21st at 3:55 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah the 18Z NAM keeps us on the edge.I didn't look at the SREF but BUF said it brings some decent precip in as well.It would be nice to get more than a few inches for once.

Posted February 21st at 4:03 PM
Matt Lanza:

The SREFs are quite aggressive, especially the latest run just in a couple minutes ago. It's going to be a very close call!

Posted February 21st at 4:08 PM
Brad (Oneonta):

Its about time we got some snow down here. Now if only we can get enough to ride snowmobile again. Last time we rode was end of December

Posted February 21st at 4:26 PM
Matt Lanza:

Snowfall map. Just the first call. I want to see how the models and radar look later..this may get altered a bit.

Posted February 21st at 4:42 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Bring it on!!! I am still hoping for at least one big snow this year, even if this won't be it!

Matt- has there been many years where the biggest snow event has not eclipsed 8 inches?

Posted February 21st at 4:45 PM
Denys (East Winfield):

Finally! We get the snow instead of the North Country!!! (even if it is 4-8 inches!)

Posted February 21st at 5:00 PM
Matt Lanza:

I'll post some of the things that could go wrong a bit later. I have decent confidence in the map for the Tr-2, 2-4" range, but medium confidence in the 4-8" range. More on all this later.

Posted February 21st at 5:33 PM
Andy Forestport:

Tues storm is going to be a mixed bag isn't it?

Posted February 21st at 6:11 PM
Matt Lanza:

Andy: Too early to say whether it's rain/snow or rain/ice/snow, but some sort of mix seems likely.

Posted February 21st at 6:21 PM
ken:

matt is there anyway utica can get in that 4 to 8 inch range?and as far as tuesday do you see a possible major ice event?

Posted February 21st at 6:29 PM
Matt Lanza:

Ken: Highly unlikely we see 4-8" in Utica...like I said above.. 3-6 at most I think. I'll reassess later. As for next week, no idea at this point...a lot of uncertainty and I'm preoccupied with the current system. We'll see.

Posted February 21st at 6:39 PM
Matt(Marcy):

wow i got some great pictures of that eclipse i'll see if i can get those pictures on the website

Posted February 21st at 7:11 PM
LIsa(Ilion):

What are the chances that snow will miss us? Big travel plans in AM

Posted February 21st at 7:34 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

To bad the major snows will be to the south.

Seasonal snowfall is way above what I was expecting, 109"

Posted February 21st at 7:49 PM
Matt Lanza:

New entry up folks!

Posted February 21st at 7:51 PM

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