Powerful cold front tonight...

Posted January 30th, 2013 by Bill Kardas. 66 comments

The big warmup has begun across the area, with some folks south of the valley already starting out in the mid 40s this morning!  Buffalo and Rochester are already 60°+ this morning.  That mild air is heading our direction.  An east wind and local topography will help reduce the strength of this mild air.  Still 50°+ will be more than enough to damage the snow pack across the area. 

A powerful cold front arrives tonight, bringing with it 1) potentially damaging winds, 2) heavy rain, and 3) a sharp drop in temperature.  The wind will be the big headline here, with a very strong low level jet swinging through the area.  Winds at 2000 feet are running around 60mph on the NAM as the front arrives.  There's just enough instability in the atmosphere to generate thunderstorms tonight too, with the lifted index approaching zero.  If any storms develop they could mix these strong upper level winds to the surface.  We'll keep you posted.

Temperatures will still hover near 50 degrees before the front arrives near midnight, but then the numbers drop.  By tomorrow morning, temperatures will be in the 30s with rain changing to snow showers.  There could be a minor accumulation, but the bigger story will continue to be the wind.  Winds sustatined tomorrow between 20-30mph with gusts surpassing 40mph.

It does turn cold enough for lake effect snow, but the primary target will be along the Tug Hill during the daytime.  The wind field looks 270-275 for most of Thursday.  Eventually, the wind does shift into a 280-290 flow Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing the band south across the Mohawk Valley, Southern Oneida, and Madison County.  MOre details on that tomorrow as we focus on the snow melt & tonight's wind event.

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  1. MG (Point Rock):

    At 7 AM in watertown it’s 58; here 38. Still 9” on the snowpack.

    Posted January 30th at 8:01 AM

  2. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It’s 39 here and the snowpack is 3.0”

    Posted January 30th at 8:02 AM

  3. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Up to 45° in Old Forge as warm air aloft builds in. Just a puff of wind away from jumping into the 40s in the colder spots.

    Posted January 30th at 8:04 AM

  4. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Washington Mills weather station reporting a temperature of 51° at 8am!

    Posted January 30th at 8:07 AM

  5. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Bill Kardas, I was watching the morning news and you mentioned something that I am interested in.

    You mentioned the Earth Tilt and wind effecting it.
    Is there a Web site I could get on to check a couple things out???

    Our temp here is 49* and our Snow Pack is all gone now except for a few small drifts.

    Posted January 30th at 8:09 AM

  6. sue (fairfield):

    41* here

    Posted January 30th at 8:16 AM

  7. sue (fairfield):

    i just looked at the forecast…..uggg…let me guess…..the winds are going to be out of the east first as the front approaches and then switch to the west…..doesn’t sound like it will be a good night for sleeping lol

    Posted January 30th at 8:25 AM

  8. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Art – The Coriolis effect, the rotation of the earth, causes wind to change direction. It can also cause the ocean current to change direction too (Ekman transport). http://abyss.uoregon.edu/~js/glossary/coriolis_effect.html

    Posted January 30th at 8:31 AM

  9. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    A 5 degree jump in temperature over the past 30 minutes at the New Harford weather station. Up to 52°: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYUTICA4&day=30&month=01&year=2013

    Posted January 30th at 8:35 AM

  10. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Still at 39* here on both of my weather stations.

    Posted January 30th at 8:42 AM

  11. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Thanks Bill

    The temp here is now 50*

    Posted January 30th at 9:02 AM

  12. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Holland Patent has spiked 10 degrees in the past hour…up to 47.

    Posted January 30th at 9:05 AM

  13. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Up to 44* now.

    Posted January 30th at 9:10 AM

  14. Lori (Bridgeport):

    temp is rising like crazy here ….am up to 53 already

    Posted January 30th at 9:15 AM

  15. Rob (Whitesboro):

    NAM still showing heavy snow on the hilltops early tomorrow. It’s up to 42 degrees here.

    Posted January 30th at 9:21 AM

  16. sue (fairfield):

    i’m still bobbing between 42 and 43 lol

    Posted January 30th at 9:24 AM

  17. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Another thing to worry about is a flash freeze tomorrow morning. There’s going to be ALOT of water laying around with temps falling fast through the 20’s.

    Posted January 30th at 9:40 AM

  18. Mel (Westernville):

    Still 40 degrees here

    Posted January 30th at 9:49 AM

  19. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Westmoreland up 10 degrees in the past hour. It’s interesting seeing the cold air disappear one station at a time. Still cool in the valley, but based on the trends it’s not going to last much longer. Rome up to 43.

    Posted January 30th at 10:11 AM

  20. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Laurens up to 56°!

    Posted January 30th at 10:12 AM

  21. Lori (Bridgeport):

    56 also ….and not one peek of sun.

    Posted January 30th at 10:22 AM

  22. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Clark Mills is the next one to go…up 10 degrees to 47 in the past 90 minutes. The Rome/Utica area should warm up within the next few hours too.

    Posted January 30th at 10:35 AM

  23. sue (fairfield):

    shot from 43 to 45 in about 10 min

    Posted January 30th at 10:38 AM

  24. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Up to 42 degrees at 10:30. The sun has been in and out a little the last couple of hours. Down to 5.5” on the snowpack.

    Posted January 30th at 10:38 AM

  25. Scott (Whitestown):

    Hi Bill,
    I understand that there is a Flood Watch. Just how high of a risk are we at overnight and by tomorrow AM?

    Posted January 30th at 10:42 AM

  26. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Scott – 1-2” of rain, perhaps 3” in higher spots may create some problem spots, but water levels are still low for this time of year. I think most area rivers should be able to handle the rain.

    Posted January 30th at 10:53 AM

  27. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    A pre frontal trough to the west is bringing rain to Buffalo and Rochester. This additional drop in pressure will be enough to kick up the wind and scour out the low level remaining cold across the area. The price to pay for that is rain though.

    Posted January 30th at 10:55 AM

  28. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    48° now in South Utica

    Posted January 30th at 11:12 AM

  29. Joanne (Dolgeville):

    Currently dense fog in Dolgeville….38 degrees.

    Posted January 30th at 11:25 AM

  30. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Old Forge is up to 50!

    Posted January 30th at 11:31 AM

  31. sue (fairfield):

    now back down to 41…....bad roller coaster ride : o lol

    Posted January 30th at 11:35 AM

  32. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    All the local stations around Rome are averaging 50°. This stuff can’t last!

    Posted January 30th at 11:35 AM

  33. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Just peaked outside…snow is melting very fast here on the hill. There are more bare spots than snow piles now across the fields.

    Posted January 30th at 11:51 AM

  34. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Finally, up 6 degrees to 49° at Rome over the past hour.

    Posted January 30th at 12:00 PM

  35. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The scouring continues along the valley floor – North Utica jumps 6 degrees in the past hour to 46°

    Posted January 30th at 12:03 PM

  36. sue (fairfield):

    o…k…..just shot up to 47 in last 15 min

    Posted January 30th at 12:14 PM

  37. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The ‘snow eater’ wind has begun on Smith Hill. Winds are now gusty from the south.

    Posted January 30th at 12:25 PM

  38. sue (fairfield):

    realitivly calm here yet…..will expect them in about 10 min…from the hill

    Posted January 30th at 12:33 PM

  39. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    High wind warning in effect for Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton, Montgomery, and Schoharie County until 6pm tomorrow.

    Posted January 30th at 12:34 PM

  40. Mel (Westernville):

    Still 45 degrees here, no wind but just started raining.

    Posted January 30th at 12:45 PM

  41. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Lewis County until 06:00 PM

    Posted January 30th at 12:50 PM

  42. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Same as Mel, still at 45 degrees here.

    Posted January 30th at 12:58 PM

  43. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    It’s been raining here a bit the past half hour.
    Really more like Drizzle now.

    Posted January 30th at 2:32 PM

  44. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    55 degrees here also.

    Posted January 30th at 2:40 PM

  45. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Flash Flood Warning for Central Oneida County until 830PM. An Ice jam has been reported for the Sauquoit Creek from Oriskany Blvd to the Mohawk River in Whitesboro

    Posted January 30th at 2:52 PM

  46. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Flash Flood Warning from Oriskany to Whitesboro as there is an ice jam on the Saquoit creek

    Posted January 30th at 2:52 PM

  47. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Northern Oneida County until 07:00 AM

    Posted January 30th at 3:15 PM

  48. Mel (Westernville):

    Northern Oneida now upgraded to a LES snow warning. Last one did not pan out here so let hope this one does.

    Posted January 30th at 3:18 PM

  49. Tim (Salisbury):

    Only 42 degrees here in Salisbury with heavy fog. Again it looks like we miss the warm air as usual!

    Posted January 30th at 3:28 PM

  50. Rob (Whitesboro):

    High was 52 here today. Snowpack almost gone. Flooding in Whitesboro is going to get bad. Heavy rain isn’t even here yet.

    Posted January 30th at 3:47 PM

  51. Scott (Whitestown):

    Whitesboro ice jam is being worked on to get it flowing again. Hopefully nobody will be impacted in the interim.

    Posted January 30th at 3:56 PM

  52. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    Just took a bit of a ride around the creek in a few places. Up behind Harbor Freight there is a strong current / flow, but down on Main St. it is much more placid and slower flowing. I believe the jam is somewhere below Main St. going towards the river. Lot of crew observing in both spots.

    Posted January 30th at 4:17 PM

  53. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Rob, Scott, Abominable, & all: keep us posted on the Sauquoit creek – if it gets any worse or not. A lot of folks who might not visit our blog on a regular basis will be looking on here for information. We know that ice jams happen fast, so any information you can give us would be VERY helpful on a night like tonight. Thanks!

    Posted January 30th at 5:34 PM

  54. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    I actually live a ways up on Westmo Road and have no issues with the creek, other than it possibly closing my son’s school in the morning and detouring my wife and my own route to work, if it has issues. I will take a ride back down and check it out a bit later after we get a good amount of rain though.

    Posted January 30th at 5:43 PM

  55. sue (fairfield):

    high of 56 today…..down to 55 now….winds still calm from the east

    Posted January 30th at 5:43 PM

  56. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    High of 60* here today and at 56* right now. Only 0.09” of rain so far.

    Posted January 30th at 6:30 PM

  57. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Where is the wind? I was outside off and on all day, and have not even seen a whisper of a breeze yet. Just came in and iris really foggy right now. Temp is now up to 49 degrees. Maybe I will get up to 50 yet.

    Posted January 30th at 7:26 PM

  58. Adam Musyt:

    Gordon – the band of rain now working through our area has taken on some stratiform properties as it has encountered cooler air. The heavy showery precipitation just ahead of the front is now in Indiana, where several observation sites are gusting above 40 mph.

    So it actually looks like around and just behind the front is where the worst of the winds are. Extrapolating out it looks like that activity should get here in a few hours and last through the second half of the night.

    Posted January 30th at 7:36 PM

  59. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    Ticker on TWC (NWS?) states that the ice jam has been broken and issues with the Saquoit Creek in Whitesboro have been alleviated. I no longer see it as a warning on noaa.

    Posted January 30th at 8:45 PM

  60. Adam Musyt:

    ONEIDA NY-
    814 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013
    ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL ONEIDA
    COUNTY...
    THE ICE JAM ON THE SAUQUOIT CREEK FROM ORISKANY BLVD TO THE MOHAWK
    RIVER IN WHITESBORO HAS MOVED THROUGH, WITH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE
    CREEK NOW RECEDING. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS OVER
    THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

    Posted January 30th at 8:50 PM

  61. Adam Musyt:

    Wind gust to 33 mph reported at 9 PM at Syracuse Airport.

    Posted January 30th at 9:13 PM

  62. Adam Musyt:

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
    933 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013
    NYZ032-033-038-039-082-310330-
    HAMILTON NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
    NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-
    933 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013
    ...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN IN
    HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
    HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
    AT 924 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    BAND OF HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF A HALF
    INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED ALONG
    A LINE EXTENDING FROM 47 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPECULATOR TO 78 MILES
    SOUTH OF SPECULATOR...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SARATOGA
    SPRINGS TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF DELMAR. REDUCED VISIBILITIES COUPLED
    WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY.
    OTHER LOCATIONS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NICKS LAKE
    CAMPGROUND...LIMEKILN LAKE CAMPGROUND...LEWEY LAKE CAMPGROUND...LAKE
    EATON CAMPGROUND...LAKE DURANT CAMPGROUND...INLET...GOLDEN BEACH
    CAMPGROUND...FORKED LAKE PUBLIC CAMPGROUND...EIGHTH LAKE
    CAMPGROUND...BROWN TRACT POND CAMPGROUND...ALGER ISLAND PUBLIC
    CAMPGROUND...RAQUETTE LAKE...OLD FORGE...OHIO...NORTHWOOD...
    MCKEEVER...EAGLE BAY...BLUE MOUNTAIN LAKE AND BIG MOOSE.
    LAT...LON 4405 7426 4395 7428 4393 7432 4389 7430
    4360 7436 4310 7475 4331 7510 4340 7509
    4377 7512 4408 7484 4413 7428
    TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 270DEG 0KT 4303 7383 4253 7383

    Posted January 30th at 9:42 PM

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