Pitchers and Catchers Report in 20 Days!

Posted January 24th, 2008 by Matt Lanza. 88 comments

So maybe not everyone is ready for spring, especially in this blog! But, it is exciting to think that baseball season is right around the corner, sunset is after 5 PM, and daily average high temperatures begin going up on Tuesday. That said, we're still talking winter. And as I proved in some down time at home earlier today, I am the best snow plower in the world (Warning: Definite Distraction from boston.com!).

At any rate, here's the skinny.

No real significant weather to speak of over the next 3-4 days. Yes, there will be LES tonight and tomorrow. Yes, there could be a few inches both west and north of Utica. No, this won't be anything like the LES of yesterday or the weekend. That's the snow map, and it isn't much to get excited about. That said, reports from Old Forge are of a 1-4 foot base, so snowmobiliers, you're in luck this weekend!

Next week sees a warm up. Not a big one, but temperatures seasonably mild. 40 degrees is possible for sure next week. The storm that will impact us Tuesday into Wednesday looks like mostly a rainmaker (upper air temps get solidly above normal). I could see some snow or an icy mix at the onset, but then plain ole' rain. Fortunately, I don't think we'll see the entire snowpack evaporate like we did last time, except in areas where it's very thin.

Then, it appears we're going into an active weather period. Whether this means snow or rain or something in between, I don't know. But, what I do know is that there will be favorable ingredients for a decent storm in the East around February 1-3. BUT... a negative NAO does not a storm make! There are numerous other things that would have to come together. I still believe that through mid-February we will average a few degrees above normal...no blocking is evident in any of the major indices. But, you can still get bursts of cold. It's just getting a burst of cold to coincide with a favorable storm track to get us anything. While I do think a large storm is likely east of the Mississippi between Feb 1-3, I am not sure whether or not this will take a track up the spine of the Appalachians, along the coast, or up through the Lakes. Any of those scenarios provide drastically different outcomes for us, so the bottom line is...something's going to happen...we just don't know what. Beyond that, the active storm pattern continues...but will it be snow or not? We'll find out eventually.

Tags:

Add a Comment

Comments

  1. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    I am too! My eyes hurt though.

    Posted January 24th at 9:31 PM

  2. mike m ( binghamton):

    i hope we get into a very active period of all snowstorms come february!!! im hopeing for a nice 4-6 foot snow pack lol that way i can
    x -country ski in my woods with out hitting all the debris and small trees!!!

    Posted January 24th at 9:58 PM

  3. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Awesome game Matt! You know I hear the DOT is hiring, maybe something as a side job?, LOL!!!

    Posted January 24th at 10:17 PM

  4. randy Vitullo:

    Mike M; I agree. Our trails are doing fine for skiing. I have missed 6 days of xc skiing since December 1st. It has been a great season in Holland Patent this year. Fifty days of xc skiing right out the back door as of today. Awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Posted January 24th at 10:34 PM

  5. mike m ( binghamton):

    that games is too hard for me lol btw getting some moderate snow down here now, about a quarter inch so far.

    Posted January 24th at 10:34 PM

  6. mike m ( binghamton):

    randy we only have about 2 inches of snow in the woods as of today...so no skiing at my house :( the only cool thing is all the ponds have frozen over solid and completely clear around here, so when you walk out on them you can see straight through to the bottom, its kinda scary, but safe ,i checked the other day and there was 5 inches of clear ice on a swamp pond thing behind my house. also the creek that runs behind my house is frozen pretty solidly, but i found out the hard way not all of it is safe for walking yet, i had a cold foot lol

    Posted January 24th at 10:51 PM

  7. Matt Lanza:

    You can definitely tell how Arctic this air mass is...just went out to start the car. 12 degrees normally doesn't feel that bad. But it is bitter out there.

    Posted January 24th at 11:23 PM

  8. mike m ( binghamton):

    ooz gfs looks good on our long shot snowstorm, it has trended a little further SE which good, it still borders bgm with sleet/ rain, but we have plenty of time to monitor this one.

    Posted January 24th at 11:54 PM

  9. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    9.7 degrees with a few flurries in the air. We picked up 1" inch of new snow Thursday. Nice little band of LES just to the north of the Syracuse area. Snowfall rates up to an inch per hour are possible within the heaviest part of the band. No advisories or warnings are up for the lake effect, so it shouldn't be a big deal at all.

    Posted January 25th at 1:31 AM

  10. Rob(whitesboro):

    This band is for sure dropping some heavy snow.Nothing even showing up on radar here and it's snowing moderately.Anywhere west of Westmo should easily pick up several inches.

    Posted January 25th at 2:06 AM

  11. Jan Sterling:

    At of 0445 local time, 25 Jan., I measured 2.5" in Oneida, NY

    Posted January 25th at 5:03 AM

  12. Gary (Schuyler) at work in Syracuse:

    Hit a brief band of snow this morning around Verona at 6:30 on the way to Syracuse. Syracuse (just north of exit 37 of the thruway) finally got some snow last night, perhaps 3 inches. They haven't had snow on the ground since the first couple days of the big thaw almost 3 weeks back.

    Posted January 25th at 7:11 AM

  13. gina trenton falls:

    snow comin down steady here for the past half hour or so.

    Posted January 25th at 7:22 AM

  14. Kurt (Cooperstown/Miami):

    Does anyone know what the official snowcover reading is currently for Cooperstown? One website says its 1 and another says 3. It looks like 3 to me, but I'm from Miami, so I have no idea how an official measurement works.
    Does anyone know the offical number ...or have a good unofficial educated guesstimate, etc?
    Thanx!

    Posted January 25th at 7:51 AM

  15. Tony CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

    Hey Rob, you see there's a new weather station on the other side of you over in Glenhaven?

    Posted January 25th at 8:00 AM

  16. Rob(whitesboro):

    Tony no...what's the link?

    Posted January 25th at 9:23 AM

  17. Laura (Clinton):

    Winds were wicked up on Paris Hill when I left for work. Gusting at least 30-40 MPH. Visibility even with the sun was limited on SR 12. Are these winds going to continue?

    Posted January 25th at 9:55 AM

  18. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

    The have weather data Rob, no site though. I saw it on weatherunderground.com Go to your page and you can see their data. Also a new station in Schuyler too.

    Posted January 25th at 9:56 AM

  19. Rob(whitesboro):

    Nevermind I found it.Ever since the icestorm last winter I still use your temp for my records.The storm broke mine and I never got a new one.When I had mine I found your site was pretty much accurate with my thermometer.

    Posted January 25th at 10:00 AM

  20. Brian Old Forge:

    Hey Matt, picked up two inches so far in Old Forge this mornig. Very low water content. I was looking at several models this morning, and if they hold February could get very interesting.

    Posted January 25th at 10:10 AM

  21. mike m ( binghamton):

    12z wrf batters eastern mass( east of worceaster ma to the cape) with a very potent no easter, would be a close call on either rain or snow, but in the end it looks to change to rain.

    Posted January 25th at 10:29 AM

  22. Becky (West Leyden):

    WE picked up 3 inches this morning. The winds are blustery W at 14 mph

    Posted January 25th at 10:48 AM

  23. Rob(whitesboro):

    Snow is piling up in Barnes Corners.They started the day at 2 feet so we'll see how much they get.

    Posted January 25th at 10:54 AM

  24. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

    Barnes Corners. What a place. The last time we went through there on the way back from Watertown is was like a ghost town. Do the locals up there leave for the winter? Just snowmobile tracks everywhere and looked like the houses were closed up for the winter.

    Posted January 25th at 12:18 PM

  25. Brian Old Forge:

    Approaching 3 inches so far today. It is still snowing, very fluffy snow. You might have to increase snowfall amounts. Ratios got be 30 to 1 or even more.

    Posted January 25th at 12:46 PM

  26. JmD-Fonda:

    Hey guys, I know this is a bit off topic but anybody seen any robins? I usually do around this time of year, and sometimes they stay all winter, but not yet; not here anyway......bring on the spring! Although we really can't complain about this winter since we have had everything from summer warmth to regular winter cold with available snow for those who enjoy it, so basically everyone should be happy about the weather so far!

    Posted January 25th at 12:58 PM

  27. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Hiya all. Well I officially now have the weather station up and running. It took a while to get it up in this weather and to get it running the way I wanted it too. But I am up and registered with wunderground. The site id is KNYSHERB2. Not sure if it is officially up there yet since it just started taking data this morning, but thought I would let you all know!

    Posted January 25th at 2:23 PM

  28. Matt Lanza:

    Jeff: Thank you. I'll start subbing your numbers in for Sherburne, since I don't know who has the other one! Also, I'll try to start adding in Whitesboro now too.

    As an aside, if anyone can provide reports from northern Oneida over the next 2 hours, they'd be appreciated. Appears a second band is developing right there, but I'm not sure if that's reaching the ground or not. Thanks!

    Posted January 25th at 3:48 PM

  29. Jeff:

    Matt,
    NWS radar shows that band quite well

    Posted January 25th at 4:12 PM

  30. Brian Old Forge:

    Still snowing in Old Forge, 4.5 inches so far today

    Posted January 25th at 4:34 PM

  31. Mel (Westernville):

    Just started snowing lightly here

    Posted January 25th at 4:40 PM

  32. Dave in Deerfield:

    If anyone is keeping track - the penguin is starting to disappear...

    Posted January 25th at 5:23 PM

  33. dan(lee center):

    we need some big storms this inch here 2 their sucks i want feet

    Posted January 25th at 6:32 PM

  34. mike m ( binghamton):

    the 12 and 18 gfs shifted our big storm onto a pretty good track, however they are indicating difficulties in bring the moisure far enough nw. matt, how warm are temps going monday and tuesday, also is there the potential that most of the precip from the large canadian storm hits us post frontal, and it is mainly light snow?

    Posted January 25th at 8:11 PM

  35. dan lee center:

    im a huge snow fan can anyone tell me a good weather site with forcast models?

    Posted January 25th at 8:58 PM

  36. Matt Lanza:

    Mike: You bet there is...for us that's why I took rain out on Wednesday now, as I feel that whatever falls on Wednesday will have cold enough air to fall as snow. Light snow still sure, but snow rather than rain. As for temps...Monday should be mid 30s at least, and Tuesday we'll likely push 40 degrees, as long as we see morning sunshine.

    Posted January 25th at 9:30 PM

  37. Stacy (Stratford):

    Its snowing here!! About 1/2 inch so far.Didnt think it was suppose to snow here at all. Roads completely covered. I guess its either feast or famine.

    Posted January 25th at 9:45 PM

  38. Brian Old Forge:

    Hey Matt, more than seven inches now. The snow is still coming down. Not a very heavy snow just very low water content. Once this snow settles amount will be cut in half. What do think one or two inches yet? Have good one!

    Posted January 25th at 10:18 PM

  39. Matt Lanza:

    Brian: Thanks for keeping us posted. Old Forge is a key spot and we don't get too many reports from there! This is total fluff, so 3-6 hours of this could easily tack on 1-3" or even a little more. And as you mentioned, it'll compact quickly tomorrow. Great news for the North Country.

    Posted January 25th at 10:23 PM

  40. Matt Lanza`:

    Of interest...doing the math... Over the last 10 days, South Redfield has received 83" of snow. Not quite as impressive as Redfield's 140"+ last February over 10 days, but certainly a healthy dose of snow!

    Posted January 25th at 10:37 PM

  41. Rob(whitesboro):

    Wow it must be nice.On average that's like getting warning criteria snow for 10 straight days.The only significant snowfall I have marked down for me this season is 8.5" way back on Dec 16th.Looks like another decent LES event up there next week as well.Seasonal total here is 50.5"

    Posted January 26th at 12:24 AM

  42. Matt Lanza:

    I've received a couple emails from people with seasonal totals. I haven't updated the list though, so I apologize. I'll do that before the next round of storms. If you could please email me (mlanza@wktv.com or weather@wktv.com) snow totals for the season, I'll be in for Bill on Sunday night, so I can update the list then. Thanks!

    Posted January 26th at 12:50 AM

  43. Matt Lanza:

    ...and as an aside, we may be upping those totals by later next week. 00Z model runs look excellent for a storm potential Friday and Saturday. Looks like another busy blog week ahead... Gear up!

    Posted January 26th at 1:01 AM

  44. ken:

    thats great matt.lets just hope cold enough for snow and lets hope we are the ones to get clobbered this time.do you see this as a potential big storm?

    Posted January 26th at 1:11 AM

  45. Matt Lanza:

    One final comment before bed. Yes, Ken...there's certainly potential there. A lot can go wrong in 6 days, but given that we have something out there, with solid agreement for the most part among the models that something is going to happen....the details are what needs to be focused on in the coming days. This could be a big storm...that gives us rain....or snow. We'll soon see. So buckle up!

    Posted January 26th at 1:33 AM

  46. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    18 degrees here with light snow. Picked up 0.50" inch so far. Side roads are snow covered with some drifting in areas. I want to get excited about a stormy pattern, but I just can't because we have been disappointed way too many times with scenarios that seemed perfect for us to get clobbered, and then we get nothing. To further that is the fact that temperatures right now would be borderline for snow or rain, and given the fact that it is 7 days out, alot WILL change. Yeah, I hope we can get lucky with at least one big storm before winter is over (1 foot+).

    Posted January 26th at 3:04 AM

  47. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt, thanks for answer my question on post 36, that is good we may see snow instead of rain. idk about this next big storm, because cold air seems kinda limited, we would have to have a pefect track...but who knows hopefully that is exactly what we get!!!

    Posted January 26th at 7:47 AM

  48. Mel (Westernville):

    2.2" of new fluff overnight with some real light flurries now. Seasonal total up to 84.80" Snowmobilers are out in force this weekend!

    Posted January 26th at 10:34 AM

  49. Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

    Man I would love a good storm but im forcing myself not to get excited yet due to all of these recent busts but I hope so. Seasonal total at 57.55 inches.

    Posted January 26th at 3:06 PM

  50. Gary(Vernon Center):

    Just wondering... any reports on the band of snow coming from our SW?

    Posted January 26th at 3:29 PM

  51. mike m ( binghamton):

    just came through here, about .25 inches nothing good.

    Posted January 26th at 4:25 PM

  52. Rob(whitesboro):

    Took a ride and checked out the snow in Oswego County.Looks like it compacted a bit but there is still a solid 24-30" just about anywhere north of Phoenix.

    Posted January 26th at 9:48 PM

  53. Rob(whitesboro):

    Mike it looks like it's snowing pretty good down there now.Not even a dusting up here.After what I saw today it's extremely depressing to come back to a 5" snowpack.The 12Z Euro looks horrible!

    Posted January 26th at 10:00 PM

  54. mike m ( binghamton):

    Rob i would still call it light snow, visibilites are around a mile, about a half inch only so far. matt, how is the late week storm looking to you, do you think the models are going to shift back east?

    Posted January 26th at 10:14 PM

  55. ken:

    the way bill kardis talks there is no big storms in sight.which means another bust for what we thought would be a big storm at end of week.theres a shock.

    Posted January 26th at 11:24 PM

  56. Mel (Westernville):

    Just back from the STYX concert - light snow covering all the cars - went out on the sled this afternoon and 15" of snowpack.

    Posted January 26th at 11:29 PM

  57. Matt Lanza:

    Well there's almost certainly going to be a large storm at the end of the week. As was the case last night and will be the case through at least Wednesday, the track is what needs to be worked on next. The thing to do over the next 2-3 days will be to watch trends.

    Posted January 26th at 11:30 PM

  58. Matt Lanza:

    And by large storm, I mean just a large storm....snow, rain, in between, a little of column a, a little of column b....you get the idea.

    Posted January 26th at 11:30 PM

  59. mike m ( binghamton):

    well it certainly has trended west on the models including the 00z gfs hot of the press; which has it going over cleveland ohio and into ontarion now, lets hope this is wrong!!!

    Posted January 26th at 11:32 PM

  60. mike m ( binghamton):

    but matt ur deffinetly right, just because the models have trended west today doesnt mean we wont get a snow storm, still plenty of time for models to shift back east...still needs to be watched as you said.

    Posted January 26th at 11:33 PM

  61. mike m ( binghamton):

    well 00z gfs actually tries to form a secondary low over eastern PA and move it off the coast of maine now; which would be just slightly too little too late for CNY but it is a good sign that the gfs might be trending SE from the 12z and 18z runs.

    Posted January 26th at 11:37 PM

  62. Rob(whitesboro):

    Actually the GFS ensembles looked pretty good earlier today.I can't see them making a big shift with the 00Z coming slightly east.It would be nice to get some coastal development further south.

    Posted January 26th at 11:52 PM

  63. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    22 degrees with light snow falling. Picked up 1.00" inch of new snow since 8p.m. Roads are snow covered and a little "greasy" in spots.

    Posted January 27th at 12:11 AM

  64. mike m ( binghamton):

    Rob, i didnt look at the 12 z ensembles yet, but if they look good then that is a good sign, ill look at the 00z ensembles tomorrow morning, yea when the coastal low is still rather weak and not very well developed over us, the precip will tend to just shoot NE quickly through cny, the really good snowstorms come when the coastal low is well developed and still strengthening by the time it is at our lattitude, this allows atlantic moisture time to wrap all the way around the storm, and subsequently forms a strong deformation zone over CNY, two good examples of this are last years VDay storm and the storm in april of last year.

    Posted January 27th at 12:27 AM

  65. mike m ( binghamton):

    check out this radar look of last years V-day storm....this just serves as a reminder that if eerything does come together CNY can get a snow storm lol : http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/bgm/casestudy/2007/feb14/text8.html

    Posted January 27th at 12:30 AM

  66. Rob(whitesboro):

    Yeah unless we have a good nor'easter,it's hard to pull in 12"+ snows this way.Unless of course your in the lake belts.I don't know...we'll see what happens tomorrow.Latest CMC has trended further west.

    Posted January 27th at 12:38 AM

  67. mike m ( binghamton):

    yea the cmc would be nearly all rain...not good.

    Posted January 27th at 1:20 AM

  68. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Moderate snow falling. Snow is falling at roughly 1/2" inch per hour here. This is the kind that builds up fast, pure fluff! Snow appears to be blossoming over us from looking at NWS northeast radar loop. We have picked up more than I thought, as I was only expecting flurries. This nickel and dime stuff is a pain in the butt, but it sure does add up after a while!

    Posted January 27th at 1:53 AM

  69. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    2.00" inches here as of 3:15a.m. Snow continues to fall steadily. I think we could tack on another inch or two before it ends. I'll have to update my seasonal snowfall total again before this evening Matt!

    Posted January 27th at 3:19 AM

  70. DT:

    Lake cutters have and will continue to be a problem.
    Is the trend really your friend?

    Posted January 27th at 5:44 AM

  71. Scott (Holland Patent ):

    Looked out on the deck a few minutes ago. Looks like we picked up a solid inch+ last night. When is the blizzard of '08 coming?

    Posted January 27th at 7:00 AM

  72. Andy Forestport:

    Is that of DT of www.wxrisk.com?

    Posted January 27th at 7:15 AM

  73. Jan Sterling:

    I don't believe post # 70 is Dave Tollis

    Posted January 27th at 7:36 AM

  74. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    3.75" inches of snow since last night. Pure fluff! Snowmobiling is great up this way, and there were alot of sleds out on the trails yesterday. It is funny how just 6-10 miles away in Little Falls or Herkimer there is just a few inches of snowpack, and then you head north up this way and there is significantly more. Beautiful morning though!

    Posted January 27th at 8:32 AM

  75. randy Vitullo:

    Any updates on the potential storm track for Friday / Saturday?

    Posted January 27th at 9:20 AM

  76. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Just a fluffy inch last night. Makes about 3" for the week. Lots of time out still on our weekender storm, lets hope snow!!!

    Posted January 27th at 10:57 AM

  77. Rob(whitesboro):

    I'm starting to wonder about the ice potential with this storm.Matt my total is 51.5" now.

    Posted January 27th at 12:24 PM

  78. Matt Lanza:

    Just got into work from Cooperstown this morning...they've got about 1-3" it seems in the village, but 3-6" outside. You go toward Cherry Valley though, and they are a winter paradise right now...looks like a solid 3-5"+ fell overnight in the hills there. I wish I had my camera on me, as the scene down there was probably the most beautiful winter scene I've ever noticed. Impressive. Will begin digesting the forecast now. Lots up in the air for this coming week.

    Posted January 27th at 3:30 PM

  79. Matt Lanza:

    Euro and GFS are fully on board with a storm track over or just to our north and west for the end of the week. The GFS ensembles shows a variety of solutions with tracks to our south and east, north and west, over us, and some that barely even develop the storm. Bottom line is, all options remain on the table regarding the late week storm.

    The one thing that is certain...with a forecasted solid negative PNA and positive AO...we're not going to be getting very cold anytime soon. Sustained cold will be impossible.

    Posted January 27th at 3:58 PM

  80. Andy Forestport:

    I went out to Syracuse today and I saw countless Geese in Corn fields and in the lake so maybe they know somewthing we don't...

    Posted January 27th at 4:33 PM

  81. Denys (East Winfield):

    Matt - I was in NH this week end and drove home via Rte. 20 this morning starting in Duanesburg. I saw exactly what you saw. It was beautiful. The trees looked like crystal! I drove over a hill, and it was gone. It's amazing to me how much different weather I saw on the way home. Left Nashua NH in snow with the roads covered and slick, the driving slow. Sunny in Albany, winter wonderland in Cherry Valley, cloudy skies and bleak looking in Richfield Springs. It was something!

    Posted January 27th at 5:51 PM

  82. Rob(whitesboro):

    Looks like that storm did make into Cape Cod.The visability in Chatham has been 1/4 mile for the last 5 hours.This could of been another huge storm for Boston if it tracked slightly to the west.

    Posted January 27th at 6:11 PM

  83. Matt Lanza:

    Denys... you bet. I had never been to that part of Otsego County, but boy is it ever nice.

    Posted January 27th at 6:23 PM

  84. Matt Lanza:

    Seasonal snow totals have been updated, and I will be updating our links to personal weather stations with a few new additions from the last couple weeks.

    Posted January 27th at 7:30 PM

  85. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    68.16" inches of snow for the season to date. I sent this one a little too late Matt, lol!

    Posted January 27th at 8:10 PM

  86. Matt Lanza:

    Michael: Never too late! Updated it. Also added the newest stations from Whitesboro, Oneonta, Norwich and Sherburne to the list of weather stations I linked to in 84.

    Posted January 27th at 8:15 PM

  87. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    Matt, here in Port Leyden, I'm up to 87".

    Posted January 27th at 9:02 PM

  88. Matt Lanza:

    Thanks, Mike!

    New entry up!

    Posted January 27th at 9:09 PM

Add a Comment

Only registered accounts may post comments to the blog. To register a new account or login, select the appropriate link in the header and follow the instructions. (note: all accounts are subject to approval by WKTV.)

↑ Back to Top

Recent Comments on this Entry

Recent Entries

Top 5 Tags