One of the Warmest January Days....Ever!

Posted January 8th, 2008 by Matt Lanza. 56 comments

Just wanted to briefly follow up to yesterday's entry.

Climate

Today's High: 67 degrees
Previous Record: 59 degrees (1930)

Today's Low: 40 degrees
Previous Record Max Low: 37 degrees (1998)

Other records of note....

Syracuse: 70 degrees, also ties all-time January record high.

Binghamton: 63 degrees, also ties all-time record January high.

Buffalo: 66 degrees, new record high
Rochester: 67 degrees, new record high
Watertown: 65 degrees, new record high
Albany: 60 degrees, new record high

Just a ridiculous day of warmth here in CNY. Just for comparison's sake, New York City only hit 64 degrees and Newark, a traditional warmer than everyone powerhouse, only hit 65 degrees. Now, back to reality.

The next concern is with thunderstorms tomorrow morning and subsequent wind behind the front. Let me break out BUFKIT for tomorrow morning as well. The current time is indicated by the solid vertical white line. The future is to the left of that line...read it right to left. Here's the BUFKIT image. What I have plotted on here are winds throughout the atmosphere. The ground is toward the bottom. Right before the "18Z We 1p" at the bottom, you notice a spike in the winds. We get 50 knot (60 mph) winds below 1,000 feet. Most valleys around here are around 500 feet. Most hilltops are around 1,000-1,500 feet. Judging by this, there is going to be a brief, but potentially significant period of wind tomorrow. We may think that since Wind Advisories are in effect, as opposed to High Wind Warnings, that we can relax. I wouldn't let my guard down for the potential for some damaging 40-60 mph gusts tomorrow late morning/early afternoon. That is with the cold front itself. Temperatures begin to drop around that time.

The other round of wind will be earlier in the day, with the line of rain/thunder. You notice a bit of a weaker, but noticeable secondary peak in the wind around 12Z. If we get any strong storms, we could mix down some of those stronger winds to the ground. But I'm less confident in this than I am in the second wave described above.

After that, there really isn't much significant weather to talk about. Any snow tomorrow evening will not stick. Thursday night and Friday's storm may have freezing rain at the onset, before changing to plain rain, but no snow is expected.

Then the next weather story will be the return to chilly weather over the weekend and then cold weather next week.

Our focus will be on the potential for a coastal storm Monday. Here's a look at the GFS forecast on Monday morning. Notice, the storm is way offshore and we get hit by a weak clipper. This solution is a big change from prior GFS runs which brought the storm at least a bit closer. But then, here's the Euro. Additionally, here's the Canadian.

The bottom line? The GFS for the most part is an outlier, so we're not putting much stock in this going completely out to sea. But, does that mean we get hit? Not necessarily. The Canadian shows a weak storm, with us getting caught between the coastal and the clipper....less snow. The Euro is a good hit though. So what does this mean? A storm is still a good bet next week for someone. Whether it's us or someone else, however, is impossible to say at this point. We're in a good place for the time being. But with none of the players in range of any concrete observation sites, it's almost impossible to say much about this, except, stay tuned.

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  1. heatherGerman flatts):

    thanks everyone for your concern and prayers. He is in stable condition in the ICU. Typical teen already trying to gab on phone. I'll keep you posted. What a beautiful day wish there was more of those during the winter wouldn't make winter seem so long. Where I am hit at 62 today. Matt the Mohawk River by the S. Washington st. bridge not high still a thin layer of ice cover. But they must have the dam closed too.

    Posted January 8th at 10:10 PM

  2. Matt Lanza:

    Heather: Glad to hear things are improving a bit.

    As an aside, another record high is going to fall. Wednesday's record high of 54 degrees will likely be shattered at Midnight (57 right now and temperatures could easily bounce back to 60 with some wind overnight). Unbelieveable warmth.

    Posted January 8th at 11:27 PM

  3. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    I took a look at the East Canada Creek this evening and to my surprise it still was running low for the amount of snow that has melted. I don't see how it can be so low with the amount of water that was locked up in the snowpack. I don't know if there is a jam further up or what, but it seems a little fishy that this creek which normally flows high when snow melt occurs is running so low right now. We lost a good 60% of our snowpack so far, but I know that it will come back soon.

    Posted January 8th at 11:48 PM

  4. Matt (HP):

    Did we get the record for today already?

    Posted January 9th at 12:22 AM

  5. Matt (HP):

    Just looked on NOAA's site. Says it was 58 degrees at 11:53 I guess thats a pretty good indicator we got it!

    Posted January 9th at 12:27 AM

  6. mike m ( binghamton):

    sorry i havent posted much been very busy with school....just took a look at 00z gfs and although it doesnt show any major snow storms it shows a very cold pattern setting up around the 18th of january and lasting through the forseeable future. with this cold air, im sure will come many chances of lake effect snow, clippers, overachieving clippers, and the occasion elusive coastal storm. Stay Tuned!!! things should get interesting.

    Posted January 9th at 12:54 AM

  7. Matt Lanza:

    Another 60 degree record, as Rome sits at 60 this morning. Imagine if we had one more day of this...almost every concievable warm temperature record for January would be in jeopardy.

    Posted January 9th at 1:16 AM

  8. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt,have u looked at the 00z cmc model it goes crazy with the coastal storm, while the gfs has nothing. we are getting reports down this way(news media, weather watchers) that some small towns(valleys) in delaware county were stuck under some inversion layer and actually never made it out of the 40s this whole week including today, and they are now sitting at the freezing point...is this possible?

    Posted January 9th at 1:47 AM

  9. mike m ( binghamton):

    00z euro still looks good.

    Posted January 9th at 3:07 AM

  10. Andy (Forestport):

    impressive line of thunderstorms on the radar

    Posted January 9th at 6:53 AM

  11. Laura (Paris Hill):

    Andy, yes indeed. The weather radio warning woke me from my sleep! Don't expect severe storms in January.

    Posted January 9th at 7:06 AM

  12. Ken ( South Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

    That is one nasty squall line moving through the county

    Posted January 9th at 7:27 AM

  13. Laura (Paris Hill):

    Hardly noticed the squall line here! No real rain or winds. Seems the central part of the county got the worst? Temp at 53.9

    Posted January 9th at 8:26 AM

  14. Jeff:

    That squall line looked impressive earlier this morning, looks like it hit a block & split apart

    Posted January 9th at 8:29 AM

  15. Rob(whitesboro):

    I overslept and missed it.There was a Warning out for Oneida and Herkimer.There are several reports of wind damage out in WNY where winds approched 60-75mph!

    Posted January 9th at 8:34 AM

  16. Rob(whitesboro):

    Looks like round 2 will be coming shortly.Winds are gusting to 60 mph out in Buf and Roc behind the front.

    Posted January 9th at 8:45 AM

  17. Rob(whitesboro):

    A roof was blown off a building in the Watertown area and also a roof was ripped from a barn in Lewis county.

    Posted January 9th at 8:57 AM

  18. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    South Lewis got out early due to power outage.

    Sun's breaking threw the clouds here.

    Posted January 9th at 9:13 AM

  19. Matt Lanza:

    Incredible squall line this morning. Here's a look at the damage reports from western NY. Was not expecting this kind of severe weather...unbelievable.

    Posted January 9th at 9:20 AM

  20. Mel (Westernville):

    Blog has been going down a lot the past week or so - scanner is real active with trees and wires down. Route 12 South near Deerfield is shutdown for a couple of hours due to an overturned tractor trailer.

    Posted January 9th at 10:49 AM

  21. Ken ( South Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

    Yea that squall line this morning did what all sever weather last summer did, fizzeled as it neared utica...lol. Wind has been howling all morning though...are the worst of the winds here already or will they get worse as the day progresses.

    Posted January 9th at 10:56 AM

  22. MJ (Trenton):

    That overturned T-T was very likely not related to weather. Looks like he was travelling too fast on 12 SB on-ramp.

    Posted January 9th at 11:05 AM

  23. Matt Lanza:

    Glad we're back here...not sure why that happened. Looks like the worst of the wind is with us and will stay with us through mid-afternoon. Syracuse and Rochester are still gusting to 46 mph. Buffalo is to 47 mph. I assume we'll be in these persistent 30-50 mph gusts for awhile.

    Posted January 9th at 11:30 AM

  24. Matt(HP):

    Ive had a registered wind speed of 23.9mph. The unfortunate part is the system only reads every 8 seconds if the gust comes right after the system last recieved its very possible the gust doesnt get registered. I also live in the woods which im sure knocks down speeds a bit.

    Posted January 9th at 11:35 AM

  25. Andy (Forestport):

    I had 2 trees come down on my property from wind. I Can't wait for some accumulating snow to cover up the ground, looks like late March outside.

    Posted January 9th at 11:38 AM

  26. Becky (West Leyden):

    up here it is 38. Our current wind is 25 mph from the NW. Winds have been 20 to 34 mph W - WNW. Todays highest gust was 60 mph at 10:14 am. one tree came down on the one of my out buildings. there are tree branches down on area roadways.

    Posted January 9th at 11:44 AM

  27. Becky (West Leyden):

    Just looked at my weather station clock; don't know why but it is 25 min fast. So our highest wind was around 9:49 not 10:14. My vantage pro should auto update the time. Anybody else have a davis vantage pro that has done this?

    Posted January 9th at 12:01 PM

  28. Karen ~ Westmoreland:

    Not really sure what the exact wind speed is here but we just had a tree fall out back of where we live....

    Posted January 9th at 12:06 PM

  29. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    About an hour and a half ago we had a large section of a tree come down on State Street in the village. Tree branch was 12-18" inches in diameter and around 10ft in length. Took DPW crews about 45 minutes to clear the debris. Jefferson County has about 9500 without power while Herkimer and Oneida Counties have around 3400 without power.

    Posted January 9th at 12:21 PM

  30. Becky (West Leyden):

    At this time were getting off and on sleet. Winds are out of the W at 46 mph.

    Posted January 9th at 12:22 PM

  31. Rob(whitesboro):

    A few trees and wires down around here as well.Just got powered restored.It was out for 3 hours.

    Posted January 9th at 12:24 PM

  32. Ken ( South Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

    Just looked outside and there is a large tree and branches down on a car in the back of my parking lot....almost looks as though the tree ae the car thats how bad it looks.

    Posted January 9th at 12:43 PM

  33. Matt Lanza:

    If anyone has damage reports or photos of damage, please shoot us an email at weather@wktv.com. If possible, I'd like to show a photo or two tonight, and I want to make sure NWS gets any damage reports. Thanks!

    Posted January 9th at 12:50 PM

  34. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

    Becky, I have a VP2. You running software that automagically checks the time on your base station?

    Posted January 9th at 1:30 PM

  35. Rob(whitesboro):

    Widespread damage in the Rochester area.Huge trees down and houses crushed.Even a few buildings totally destroyed.Some are saying the damage is worse than 91 Icestorm.

    Posted January 9th at 2:15 PM

  36. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    Complete Coverage from WHAM-TV. I don't like Jerry's station's website, so I went with a ClearChannel station. Just an FYI, the deal with Providence might not go through. Doesn't affect WKTV at all, but just an interesting tidbit.

    The winds have been on and off up here.

    Posted January 9th at 2:56 PM

  37. Andy (Forestport):

    Whats the latest on Sun-Mon

    Posted January 9th at 3:11 PM

  38. Matt Lanza:

    Also, if anyone from the viewing area measured a specific wind gust, I'd like to throw together a map tonight. Please post or email. Thank you!

    Posted January 9th at 3:15 PM

  39. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Amazing damage in the Rochester area. Some buildings are a complete loss from what I seen in a few images. At the airport, airport official pulled air traffic controlers from the tower around 5 this morning because of the winds. Glad it didn't get that bad here. I have a row of pine trees about ten feet from my house and they are between 100ft and 200ft high. That wouldn't be pretty if one of those came down!

    Posted January 9th at 3:17 PM

  40. Becky (West Leyden):

    Tony.... Yes I do run that software.

    Winds are W at 25 mph. The winds have been 20-35 with some higher gust of 45-52 mph. as of now no gust have been stronger than the 60 mph from this morning.

    Posted January 9th at 3:40 PM

  41. Matt Lanza:

    Thanks, Becky!

    Andy/Others: Regarding Monday's storm...the Euro's consistency and track has me extremely interested that we could be in for quite a system. I'm not 100% sold because it is still too early, but given the track record of the Euro...this is good. The Canadian/GFS solutions still bring us some snow, but nothing significant. Should the Euro come through, you'd all be happy Monday. More later.

    Posted January 9th at 3:45 PM

  42. Jeff:

    Matt,

    You are the bearer of good news (I hope)

    Posted January 9th at 4:06 PM

  43. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt, i also saw the 12z euro...looks good to say the least. winds werent that bad down here, probably 40-50 mph peak gusts this morning. however you could here the winds ripping at the tree tops, sounded like a freight train only a 50 feet or so above ground level, so im sure some of the hilltops got nailed down here also.

    Posted January 9th at 4:28 PM

  44. Becky (West Leyden):

    I looked at the 12z euro for the 23-24 Jan storm. And it looks like the storm bombs to around 975mb on Jan 24. It looks very impressive.

    Posted January 9th at 5:03 PM

  45. Matt Lanza:

    Becky: You mean 13-14, right? If it's the 23-24, then I want access to that!! ;)

    Posted January 9th at 5:17 PM

  46. Becky (West Leyden):

    Matt.... I looked at the Calendar wrong. it is the 13-14.

    Posted January 9th at 5:23 PM

  47. Rob(whitesboro):

    I hope some of the other models start coming around to that idea.We would have to watch for the sleet potential though.Matt there was a report of 79mph from Ft Drum.

    Posted January 9th at 5:23 PM

  48. randy vitullo:

    Impressive weather. Extremes, extremes, extremes!!!!!! Next in line (hopefully), a possible massive snow event. We can only hope.... This year does seem to be the year that we get snow / sleet when the chance comes about (except for LES in the Utica area). If I were a betting man I would bet yes for significant snow for the 13th to the 14th. THINK SNOW......

    Posted January 9th at 5:41 PM

  49. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Yeah, I'm thinking snow and hoping that sleet doesn't mess everything up, or a sudden change in track a thousand miles out to sea. Still have snow on the ground here, about 3-6" inches left.

    Posted January 9th at 5:51 PM

  50. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    We are down to bare ground here. Even the frost in the upper layers of the ground has come out. Had a blamy 58 this morning and the winds were howling!!! Had numerous reports of trees down, but nothing to major. Looking at the forecast, I am surely hoping snow!! Especially considering I have Sunday and Monday off!!!

    Posted January 9th at 6:04 PM

  51. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    Down to patches of snow here. This is really effecting the downhill skiing. All types of skiing are effected as you come to think about it.

    Posted January 9th at 6:09 PM

  52. ken:

    matt,this possible coastal storm for monday if right track can we be talking about a very significant snow for us or just a decent storm?

    Posted January 9th at 6:24 PM

  53. Becky (West Leyden):

    We have 3-4 inches left. Its hard to believe that before the warm-up we had a base of 28 inches. Winds are still very strong, currently there 32 mph out of the W. I went outside and the wind coming through the trees, was making so much noise it was hard to carry on a conversation. the conditions today are very impressive for the middle of January.

    Posted January 9th at 6:27 PM

  54. Matt Lanza:

    Ken: If the Euro is right, yes. If the Euro is wrong, not even close. Unfortunately, we can't put all of our chickens into one barrel right now and say, "Yep, the Euro's right!" I may do a video blog tonight (along with a text summary this time) to explain the scenarios.

    Posted January 9th at 7:08 PM

  55. Mike(Leonardsville):

    I hope for a far miss on Monday. I don't like taking an hour to drive in to work at 6 AM.

    Posted January 9th at 8:02 PM

  56. Matt Lanza:

    New entry and VLOG up!

    Posted January 9th at 8:39 PM

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