Nowhere to go but up...

Posted February 28th, 2014 by Bill Kardas. 34 comments

Cold, dry air will continue to linger in Central New York today and tonight, before the weather improves a bit over the weekend.  Some snow chances later in the weekend, along with another round of cold weather early next week.  When will we get a break from the cold?

For the 21st time, we fell below zero in Rome.  The current temperature as I write this is -11°.  This will be pretty close to the low for the day, as the sun is up. It only takes a few hours of clear skies to get temperatures to drop like a rock.

Last night's lake effect event turned into a dud.  This wasn't a surprise on our end, as air temperatures were in the single digits last night.  Over the years, we've noticed a distinct lack of performance in the lake band when temperatures are less than 10 degrees late in the season.  The lake band, even under decent lake effect parameters, doesn't extend as far inland as it would with higher air temperatures.  Snow lovers get fustrated when we point these things out.

February will likely go down as a top 10 coldest month on record.  The numbers will become official later today, but it looks like we've got enough cold to make the #10 spot.  I know it's probably hard for some of you to believe, but there were 9 other colder Februarys in this area.  The most recent one on the list goes back to 1980. 

Cold continues...

Today will be a pleasant but cold day ahead.  Highs will be in the lower teens.  With less of a wind chill today and with the almost March sun, it will not feel as brutal as the past two days.  Tonight will be our 22nd night below zero as skies remain partly cloudy.  The overnight low will be -5 to -10 degrees depending on cloud cover.  Clouds do arrive tomorrow morning.

Heart Run

If you're heading out to the Heart Run and Walk tomorrow, DRESS WARMLY.  We expect temperatures to start out below zero around 6/7am, with temperatures climbing quickly into the low teens by 10am.  The wind will pick up a bit, making it feel like near zero throughout the morning.  Conditions improve throughout the day, with highs expected to reach the upper 20s by the afternoon.  Flurries arrive late in the day.  Layers, layers, layers.  You know the drill by now.  If not, we give up :)

Any end in sight?

The winter of 2013-2014 will go down in the books as one of the coldest ones in recent memory.  Another snap of cold weather arrives for early next week, before the winter's wrath eases for later in the week.  The storm on Monday looks like it takes a pass to the south, keeping the heavy accumuations away from Central New York.  If anything changes (it still could) we'll keep you posted.  Things are going to get better around here.

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  1. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah I don’t think anyone even hit Warning criteria last night. The flow turned to 310 pretty quick instead of 290. Highest amount I saw was in Durhamville at 5.9”. Snowpack here is 10” this morning.

    Posted February 28th at 7:45 AM

  2. Gary (Schuyler):

    Cold again this morning, bottoming out at -10 here in mid-Schuyler. Rising rapidly at the moment with the help of the sun. It seems like years ago from life long observations I mentioned on this site that lake effect doesn’t typically get into Utica proper when the temperature is very cold. You’re right Bill, people didn’t want to hear it :-) Probably the best snowmobiling of the winter now with a solid hard base and powder on top.

    Posted February 28th at 7:47 AM

  3. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    -12 was the official low in Rome. The record low for today’s date is -21 set back in 1934. Pretty impressive daily low temperature record for ‘almost March’.

    The record “lowest high” temperature is 17° set back in 1980. I’m surprised it’s that high for today’s date, but I guess that’s a record meant to be broken. We should have no problem doing that this afternoon.

    Posted February 28th at 8:12 AM

  4. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    4.0” even….snowed very hard from ~7pm last night till 2am this morning. This the most dense LES I can remember. Small to Medium flakes fell during that time frame but came down very hard. Will update seasonal total Sunday.

    Posted February 28th at 8:30 AM

  5. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I noticed that too Rocino. It was VERY dense considering we had 850’s around -24. I don’t do a SWE but Westmo had 0.28” of liquid with only 2” of snow. That’s weird.

    Posted February 28th at 8:47 AM

  6. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Watching the SREFS roll in and liquid is 0.65” for CNY for the Sun/Mon event.

    Posted February 28th at 9:09 AM

  7. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Bill Not much Snow at all here last night.
    I call it Squeaky Snow. Some weird Snow though, for what we got.
    Last night low was +1* but the wind chill must have been -20*. It sure seems good the wind has stopped.

    Posted February 28th at 10:17 AM

  8. Rob (Whitesboro):

    GFS track the storm through the Carolinas and misses us. Storm should come ashore later today so models should come into better agreement at 12Z tomorrow.

    Posted February 28th at 10:55 AM

  9. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Wind Chill this morning at Mt Washington was -63!

    Posted February 28th at 11:09 AM

  10. Gordon (Northwestern):

    I had 2.6” of snow yesterday. Was over with by midnight. Low last night was -7. Snowpack is now 23”’ which is my deepest of the season.

    Posted February 28th at 11:17 AM

  11. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Rob,

    GFS way south this run but NAM way north from previous runs …. I agree though storm is still off shore ..it’s a crap shoot at this point …but my expectation is further north than this GFS run …Jigh pressure to the east usually forces storms to turn north

    Posted February 28th at 1:11 PM

  12. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah but the vortex is right to our north. That has more force than the high to our east. It’s a big squeeze play. Euro is similiar to GFS.

    Posted February 28th at 1:37 PM

  13. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    3 degrees, calm, mostly clear with a nice sunrise to start the day.

    Posted March 1st at 6:09 AM

  14. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    Good luck to all the walkers and runners….keep warm!

    Posted March 1st at 6:10 AM

  15. Denys (East Winfield):

    7 degrees, calm and mostly clear. I can see beautiful pinks in the sky to the east.

    Posted March 1st at 6:24 AM

  16. Louis (Barneveld):

    9°F at the moment. Had a low of -7°F late last night.

    It looks like aside from the cold temperatures (which will gradually moderate by the end of the week), it looks like a rather nice week shaping up as high pressure sets in for a few days. Good luck to all the runners & walkers today!

    Posted March 1st at 7:41 AM

  17. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Happy 1st day of meteorological spring! Even though it was frigid this morning, we did make it up to 34° this afternoon. Unfortunately this “mild” weather will not last.

    Posted March 1st at 5:48 PM

  18. Louis (Barneveld):

    High of 30°F today.

    Posted March 1st at 6:26 PM

  19. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    High of 37* here today…still at 34* right now. Didn’t expect that today after starting at 0*

    Posted March 1st at 7:54 PM

  20. Gordon (Northwestern):

    High today of 33 after an overnight low of -4, just after midnight.

    Posted March 1st at 11:28 PM

  21. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    13 degrees, light wind, overcast, .3” of new snow last night. Season total now up to 114.7”

    Posted March 2nd at 6:25 AM

  22. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    19* here with a dusting of new snow.

    Posted March 2nd at 7:39 AM

  23. Louis (Barneveld):

    14°F here at the moment with light snow, 0.4” over night. It looks like there’s a heavier band of snow working in from west to east right now.

    Posted March 2nd at 7:56 AM

  24. MG (Point Rock):

    Measured 0.7” at 7 AM. That heavier band just came through here. The flakes got bigger and more impressive looking, but just enough new snow to bring me up to an inch even. Still snowing lightly, back to tiny flakes

    Posted March 2nd at 8:10 AM

  25. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Steady snow will continue to push to the south and east for this morning and then the cold weather settles back in. I would not be surprised if some areas North of Utica do not get out of the single digits tomorrow. Tomorrow night looks like another double digit below zero night. Unfortunately the long range still looks below zero. The one plus, Daylight Saving Time is next weekend!

    Posted March 2nd at 9:31 AM

  26. Rob (Whitesboro):

    0.5” here this morning bringing my seasonal total to 87.0”

    Posted March 2nd at 11:23 AM

  27. Louis (Barneveld):

    0.6” since 8:00AM, 1.2” since last night.

    Seasonal Snowfall Total: 112.6”

    Posted March 2nd at 11:29 AM

  28. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    0.3” here this morning.

    Seasonal Total: 67.6”

    Posted March 2nd at 1:37 PM

  29. Louis (Barneveld):

    NWS BGM: Wind Chill Advisory in effect for Oneida, Madison,
    Otsego, Chennango, and Onondaga counties from 1:00AM tonight through 10:00AM tomorrow. Actual lows will be between -5°F and 5°F. Wind chill readings between -5°F and -20°F. Winds will be Northwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Gusts of 20 MPH.

    NWS BUF: Wind Chill Advisory in effect for Lewis County from 1:00AM tonight through 10:00AM tomorrow. Wind Chill readings will be between -20°F and -25°F. Winds will be Northwest at 5 to 10MPH.

    Posted March 2nd at 4:00 PM

  30. Louis (Barneveld):

    BGM issued the same advisory for their entire area which goes into PA, so I think we’re on the colder side when they say overnight lows between “-5°F and 5°F” or “wind chill readings between -5°F and -20°F”.

    Posted March 2nd at 4:04 PM

  31. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Seasonal snow total up to 121.9”. Had 16.1” this past week. Had an even 1” today.

    Posted March 2nd at 5:54 PM

  32. Chris (HP CoCoRahs) (Holland Patent):

    Well after a busy winter week, picked up over 14” of snow. Seasonal totals with today’s snowfall is 124.8” and counting. So the big storm is a miss with stinks but oh well. Maybe a another chance next weekend but looks bleak for now. Stay warm everyone.

    Posted March 2nd at 7:57 PM

  33. Louis (Barneveld):

    Seasonal Snowfall Total: 112.6”

    Posted March 2nd at 8:54 PM

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